..headwinds headlines

Despite Global markets weakness (>1+% off) overnight, markets here opened only a few pts lower at the higher end of the gap at SPX1321.   It was just a matter of time before a catch up to the world would ensue and the ‘cluster’of “S” would be tested.   Soon after the Bears got the upper hand as ‘demand destruction’ headlines from IEA,  SaudI Arabia weak demand comment and GS follow up to their basket commodity long trade close’ yesterday, adding crude to experience pullback to $105 was too much too handle for the Bulls.   Most of the emphasis was placed on GS’s call in the media, but in reality the steep selling should have occurred on Tuesday when the first commodity basket close hit the wires. In this view, it was the ‘destruction’ headlines that spooked investors, not GS, which is infamous for their direction call shenanigans as they change course quite quickly.

A few probably scratched their heads as to why a lower crude would not be beneficial to the broad market at this point.  The key is simply ‘demand destruction’, which is goes beyond the shopper pumping gas to go the mall. Only airlines/retailers benefited today.  The commodities deteriorated late Monday off the GS note and the selling just picked up steam as ‘destruction’ headlines hit.   Add, below par AA earnings, a bunch of tech linked mid caps earnings giving poor outlooks and the Bulls had a lot of headwinds to overcome today.  Techincally.. SPX1310  was about all the Bulls had left today as 20Ma was hit early and market stabilized intraday  As usual in the marketplace, an important technical level is compromised with a ‘catalytic’ event of some sort, this time we know what's ahead and that is earnings with JPM and a few notable Naz/tech links reporting shortly.

In all, considering all the negative’s above and below in Shadowlist components, add the fact Washington (debt ceiling) is a tailwind as well, it wasn’t that bad a final boxscore today for the Bulls. Any good news now will likely have the market continue the bounce off ~ 1310.

Shadowlist

■Commodities – A sizable ~3% shellacking with XLE, OIH breaking below the bottom of a trendline that starts from September’10.. Entering April 4^th trading day,”….. As the coal trade here likely cools off shortly,…”, Since WLT,CLF  faves here off 10% and a victim today of being a high beta energy trade casualty. Not much in commodity linked space to consider in the very short term.

■Financials  -  Wednesday’s start to financial earnings will likely decide if 20ma holds tomorrow, banks/brokers held up today despite GS cutting a few names, primarily holding due to JPM’s EPS hours away.

■Momentum/ earnings/ winners of ’10 –  It’s not a surprise the ‘smells like rotation’ from early last week didn’t materialize to anything but a bad odour... “ AMC, TXN bought a grandfather of a semi stock for a huge premium.  It will likely be a very temporary boost as pre-announcements possibilities are first and foremost in investor’s minds”.   The SOX  (off ~2% today) rally fizzled and today hit multi week fresh lows proving it was nothing more than short covering …” The initial ramp in Naz, semi’s was pure good old fashioned short covering as their semi home got raided.  Post-short covering, the conviction buyers simply stayed away despite all the upgrades in semi’s”.  

Mid caps earnings so far continue to be a headwind (MCRL latest relates to Samsung) and therefore anything wireless related gets hit today.  Coupled with Japan uncertainties on outlook weighing on group and the tech sector is in need of some good news. Bigger names, ASML/ADTN reports will be watched BMO.

Still ,some pockets of life today  in NVDA/ Networking/optical were not bad today as the well known opticals names like ALU CIEN did alright, while RVBD, which has been smoked for the last month put water on Wells Fargo negative preview of it's EPS after market closed.  

Up in the air (earnings)...

The immediate morning question was can the market build on the premarket pop and Global rebound occurring overnight. The problem premise here recently is that besides no conviction buying stepping up when we need it, we don’t have shorts laying out exposure in this recent melt up or on this downturn to 20ma to make a move sustainable higher.   So following this idea, logical expectation was once again some short covering early followed by little or no buy conviction at all coming off the sidelines. Therefore, a short covering would only be short lived because there are not enough shorts in the market, no longs to buy, so the bounce would peter out.  An hour into the trading day this was evident as SPX gains were erased, by close it was even more clear the premise once again worked itself out.

In all, not sure who won today!. The Bears should have closed the market lower if you look at JPM, ASML, ADTN earnings reactions (more on this below).  On the other hand, Bulls didn’t get positive reactions off headline #’s which were solid, yet finished at par in the broad market with earnings supposedly disappointing.  Screwy day as cautiousness towards earnings is still prevalent on investors minds, so they wait for more reports to make investing decisions.  Today's results left it up in the air.

Shadowlist

■Momentum/ earnings/ winners of ’10 –  , Yesterday it was noted the tech group needs some good news.  All the market got was more mixed signals it seems.  Solid beats and/or guides were ignored and fickle investors found ‘ softness’ somewhere within a report and/or during CCalls. (ADTN was up 5% premkt/ ASML).  Earnings luckily started w/ RVBD  pre-announcement, but ADTN/ASML (noted coming into trading day to watch) couldn’t built on the support for the group.  Tech did get some short covering just as in TXN/SOX bump noted gain yesterday), but that was it as the Nasdaq, peak to trough dropped 28 intraday points midday.

Yesterday….“Still ,some pockets of life today  in NVDA/ Networking/optical were not bad today as the well know names like ALU CIEN did alright …”.  Some of the best tech strength was in these names today, (optical/networking) ALU  >8%, CIEN >4% up , FNSR >3%, along with our closely followed Chinese internet linked names,  SINA  SOHU  BIDU again 3-7% up.

■Financials  -  In respect to earnings, same goes with JPM  as with tech reports. It seemed like a solid report for the financials, based on a headline Rev/EPS, but the underlying mortgage repurchase expenses up attracted the negativity and spread to peers.

Deadlock..

Positive is market held 1310 close for a 3^rd consecutive day. (note 20ma has moved up this week to 1315’ish.). Most will see the reversal today of some 150 DJIA, ~30 Nasd , 14 SPX points to highs of day as a positive, but if you glanced at the Shadowlist or any watchlist, you should notice single stocks were doing nothing.   These same single stocks weren’t hit on way to 1302 SPX and it’s no surprise they didn’t move to upside on the reversal crawl during the day.   This exemplifies a ES/ETF trade as real money remains sidelined in a cautious mode, while fast traders churn the ES futures/ETF’s.  It’s a boycott in the market by both sides really as shorts are unwilling to pressure the tape lower allowing support to hold up quite easily and even bounce some.  It would be a surprise if the market got any meaningful follow through on a Friday due to this type of action seen today.

The early blame game was on the euro debt situation (Greece)showing up almost a year later to the day.   Firstly, in this view it’s an excuse as plans won’t change the way the situation stands now and so it’s importance is overblown today.  The main issues for the market right now is with U.S govt (debt ceiling, we can add the Senate paper on GS for some spice) and earnings that has this market in a deadlock! 

Also, a bigger issue than Europe today is some of the recent eco data that is clouding the picture some (jobless claims today).  As yesterday, not sure who won today either, but if anybody is blowing it, it’s the shorts not taking advantage of all headwinds in the Bull’s faces today to create a bigger setback.

Rally, if this gets clearer….overhangs

• Debt ceiling debate, congress goes on holiday’s next week till May
• Earnings reactions improve and/or start seeing nice upside beats/outlooks       

 *Today, semi FCS  upped guidance strongly and said guidance for upcoming was already ‘fully booked’, yet the stock sold off due to CEO saying impact of Japan are unknown.  Talk about a fickle crowd again!.  What is occurring so far in earnings might be described as’ sell on the news’, but it’s not the typical we’ve seen in Q’s past.  Market should get over this phase, if earnings keep on coming with solid guidance.

Update on Friday, April 15, 2011 at 10:55AM by Demi/ YourPersonalTrader

Surprising..good eco data, CPI hawkish, surprised single stocks haven't found that elusive bid. If it does should break Tuesday H 1321.

DJIM #16 2011

Heading into DJIM #15 week, it was noted the market didn’t really know what's going on the corporate front (earnings) from recent indicators (Japan impact/ some smaller co’s earnings/ data points).  

A week later and disappointments from AA JPM GOOG BACK INFY , hardly resolved anything, although just looking back at those pretty big names covering a broad view of sectors, many are left scratching their heads as to how the market didn’t resolve itself more than .5% to the downside by week close. (Unfortunately, single stocks didn’t find ‘elusive bid’ to close above 1321 as per follow up Fri.morning comment).  

Add, big Washington question marks (debt ceiling), Euro debt déjà vu and Bears must be thinking what's it going to take to get longs to sell holdings?.  They already know their comrades are incapable of pressing as the market just tested a cluster of support this week and instead bounced.  Also for good measure, let’s note the fact 4 of above corporations announced just in the last 24 trading hours and the market still managed to rally some ~12 SPX pts from overnight lows.  Okay, let’s also add ‘safety' sectors outperforming and most likely go ‘Huh’?. 

Is it just the same Bull market resiliency we’ve discussed for 2 years now or is this market just waiting to reach a crescendo of headwinds and buckle its knees in a late April correction (..As said last week, investors need to see value in stocks to keep the trend in tact for Q2 or market risks a correction later this month, earnings are the big key to that”,  early April.  Also, recall, post- Japan/surging oil, Global ISM’s pleasantly held up, but it was noted here they could just be delayed and be terrible once April #’s released.  Question is, what if they aren’t terrible?. What if Washington makes headway during it’s recess on debt ceiling legislation? (which it still can prior to May 1).  What if earnings/outlooks start to come through as we hit the majority of SP500 co’s in the next 2 weeks?.   Well, folks..'what if's' in this business is called “UPSIDE RISK”.  Shorts fear it and the big money knows it can rally the market, so they wait on the sidelines for any of these potential catalytic events.  

All in, murky broad market waters, but DJIM emphasis has always been on single stock selection linked to earnings and as we head into the eye of earnings season, we’ll concentrate on building on fresh and/or re- initiations of successful Q1 names off earnings and not worry so much about the big picture, ie,  TDSC  CRR  IPGP  MSTR  WTW TBL /  http://www.djimstocks.com/1st-q-2011/2011/4/5/djim-plays-1st-q-spx-1250-call-mcp-soda-tdsc-crr-ipgp-tbl-ms.html 

..and others like, GTLS SXCI SFLY WFMI ININ OPNT KEYN  (you can click highlighted symbol on site for charts)

NCH-new closing highs: WTW SFLY WYNN  MCP SINA  KEYN (Shadowlisted)

Update on Monday, April 18, 2011 at 09:47AM by Demi/ YourPersonalTrader

TITN , Titan Machinery, Inc.

blow out EPS, will get a look back to Ag' -equip sec', VMI strong EPS outlook last week.

ie LNN AGU POT MOS

SPX , approx.~1295 off SP downgrade news likely a buy.

pile up..

Hey, what’s one more negative (SP downgrade) headline to toss into the market, adding to the pile we discussed in this weekend’s DJIM #16.(escalating weekend Euro debt situation already had ES down 10pts.)

As ‘panicky’ wire headlines hit at 9am and spread into the open thanks to S&P threat to downgrade US debt in the future, most probably couldn’t decipher what it means to TSY’s/Treasuries, USD and definitely the equity market as it fell fast and furiously.

Considering a threat is just an idle threat until exercised, we followed up quite confidently 15 minutes into the trading day that if SP~1295 hit, it would likely be a buy point for today after dissemination of the downgrade.  Of course many would not suggest buying a gap down and a falling knife, but all you had to do was look at the Shadowlist components and see individual stocks were not being sold off.   This glimpse as usual allows you to make a decision even if you don’t know the consequences yet of any seemingly negative newswire that may have hit.  Can’t say we’ve seen one (outlook downgrade) to the US before to know what it may bring upon equities, so today it was best to rely on good old Shadowlist for guidance.  Besides, didn’t we all downgrade US debt long ago!  This doesn’t mean you jump and buy stocks (some names below worked) as much as it means you don’t panic and sell.   Soon after follow-up, market fell another ~10pts to 1295, a re- test and later a decent push to 1307H in the afternoon.  What the early trade demonstrated was it’s an ES/ETF trade again with investors holding on to individual stocks while fast traders play.  

*Although an important week, the holiday-shortened trading week with desks emptying by the hour as we go forward , we can expect exaggerated moves in either direction that don’t mean much as positions in all asset classes get squared away before the holiday.

Shadowlist

■Commodities – Keep seeing excellent numbers in Ag-equipment stocks recently, LNN, VMI, (TITN  initiated today in follow-up section).  So far this month not much is loved as earnings get sold off in most cases good or bad(LNN VMI) in this space, but sooner than later money flow will go into what is showing growth for rest of ’11.

■Consumers- LVMH , luxury goods out of Europe gave an upbeat report after overseas market close helping retailers here, notably LULU, but overall outperformance seen in group.

■Momentum/ earnings/ winners of ’10 –  Very nice reversals in AAPL, PCLN, each 10pts and hopefully a leading good sign.  WYNN, IPGP  as well back to high levels, while  SINA  really popped. Also, like LVMH, Infineon a chip from Europe helped earnings sentiment as it pre-announced AMC in Europe.  Unfortunately, TXN did nothing AMC as most US corps’ so far this earnings season.

Europe respects solid earnings

Heading into the trading day, cited strong European earnings from a lux retailer and a semi.  This was followed by broad range of companies today… another lux’ retailer, a beer co, a cosmetics co, a drug co powering European markets by US open.  Hum???...Gains despite an escalating European debt crisis ?    At least someone has the right sense, while here in US investors continue to fickle through reports as seen by GS blowout number. (TAG below :’fickle investors’ for more).   Europe results/reactions have probably signalled a change coming here.

As speculated sooner than later this selling phenomenon will end if solid earnings keep coming in. (outside of banks/brokers as it’s a sector ‘want’ within Financial reports that isn’t showing up and doesn’t relate to other sectors). ..”Talk about a fickle crowd again!.  What is occurring so far in earnings might be described as’ sell on the news’, but it’s not the typical we’ve seen in Q’s past.  Market should get over this phase, if earnings keep on coming with solid guidance.”

In all, a good sign was the early morning gains that disappeared, reappeared and tracked on even more in the afternoon to close at day highs..  Many of the names noted from Shadowlist yesterday exploded out of the gate and/or had significant follow through days. Even though the RUT underperformed the indices , the Shadowlist components had very good action as seen below.

Shadowlist

■Commodities –  Yesterday’s alert on Ag- equip names had a decent day adding on to yesterday gains, MOS POT~4 NEU LNN   will squeeze nicely if this group action keeps up from it’s basing here.  OSN +20%  today. After getting beat up due to all China fraud/ guilty by association, it reported nicely last week with 20% +guidance numbers.  The PE on this steel name is crazy so keep watch for bottom feeders here possibly.

■Consumers-   LULU   followed through to over $100/4% at the open,  UA  hooked on a for a ride to NCH as well/~4%., RL intraday high.  All these names fall into luxury ‘apparel’ . Burberry earnings today followed LVMH.

■Momentum/ earnings/ winners of ’10 –  Chinese internet names covered here almost daily outperformed again, SINA 12 pts intraday, SOHU, BIDU.  IPGP,  here as well yesterday tacked on 4pts/6% NCH.   As far as ’10 momo’s, there is hesitation on names like FFIV APKT VMW ahead of earnings, even after RVBD upside pre-announcement.  Most of these networking/telecom related names were down ahead of JNPR results tonight.  FNSR  was the outperformer linked name as it trades well recently eyeing gap.  QLIK- nch

Big night ahead for tech results, watch if any disappointment EPS' get bought into or we see a ‘baked in/better than feared scenario for signs of semi’ tsunami ending.  LLTC has a big Japan impact, so will watch how it reacts to what it says about the impact.

*Note : you can click TAGS below on site for '11 notes on stocks/ sectors etc.

Update on Wednesday, April 20, 2011 at 05:03AM by Demi/ YourPersonalTrader

US market finally showing 'respect' for 'solid' earnings.  Note, 1st round is going to be short covering as semi space has been in the woodshed for awhile.  We need to see conviction buying step up afterwards, something we've covered on recent upticks (short coverings) that failed due to sidelined money(conviction).  If market finds it, we will see it in a big day with last weeks SPXhighs falling first. See Friday's update.

Commodities, Autos likely will be secondary in plays for a broad move.

..U.S a little too respectful maybe?

Firstly, DJIM covered that earning worries were slowly being put to rest in Europe (>2% today) with solid & broad earnings over the last 2 days.  Unfortunately for many trading US markets this was put under the rug as all media reporting was on CDS spreads widening in Europe and poor reactions to US earnings that came in, good or bad.   What was supposed to be an important micro week turned to the Macro until earnings/outlooks from many market behemoth’s hit Tuesday night putting many worries (Japan impact/ death of the PC) to rest on this side of the pond.  Naturally, we’ll still see misses and not so rosy outlooks this Q, but it will be company specific issues. Not all management is created equal and this Japan tragedy definitely tested some CEO’s grit.   Besides, misses, bad outlooks occur every Q, not just after a crisis situation.

This (earnings) is one ‘what if’s’  we discussed in DJIM #16 as an Upside risk  and reason to rally.  Knowing the ‘Upside risks in the market plays into alerting SP1295 was likely a buy point while market digested SP downgrade Monday morning.  Considering, the market has melted up 30 SP handles and about 5 more post AAPL-EPS in 3 days since,  it has caught many on their heels.  The question is will they step forward and help push the market over SP1340 or will we continue to be range bound?

Well…not to spoil the exuberance, but we may see overnight ES highs be the highs tomorrow.  Recall, we noted we may have exaggerated moves in either direction this holiday-shortened week.  When a move is fast and furious as this one is with all focused on an overnight supposedly ‘healthy’ semi/tech, it is very easy to overlook a few things in the underlying market.  A few of these are negative, a very heavy bank index (multi month lows as loan growth is disappointing, Mortgage insure biz as well) and the Rails to a lesser degree. Add the fact not all think semi concerns are over with and once a lot of the short covering is done with, expect longs to take this gift rally profits instead of buyers to come in with conviction.  Also, those who have vacated their desks early this week will be in line.  Note, semi sec is still way off Feb Highs with many underwater waiting for a life boat. This rally might be it.

Of course, there is the endless supply of ‘Macro’ headwinds on the table, at least Micro won out for a day this earnings Q.

Shadowlist

■Momentum/ earnings/ winners of ’10 –  Semi’s up ~4.5% led the buying in broad market, DJIM’s '10 momo names were led by VMW  earnings supporting peer names here like  CRM  APKT  FFIV,  >7-9%.  JNPR  was one stock where a disappointing guide still found buyers (this was noted as something important to look for in Tuesday’s AMC reports), helping FNSR and peer optical plays.

■Consumers-   Our lux apparel FOSL UA  RL TIF  >2-4% had very nice morning with all hitting intraday fresh highs. WYNN  was the highlight off earnings.  Noted broad strength in an update would likely include Autos linked stocks, components up 4.5%, Auto 3%.  PII - Polaris Industries, Inc. earnings standout.

■Commodities –  Action could have better considering USD was getting whacked. Ag’s Ferts/Steels under the tape.  ALB -  Albemarle Corp. , old DJIM standout Earnings in materials.

DJIM #17 2011

Kept hearing late in the week,” what a rollercoaster of a week!”.  Well, we’re not sure what all the fuss is about as it’s been straight up ~40 SP handles/ >+3%  since 15 minutes into Mondays’ trading,.. “SPX , approx.~1295 off SP downgrade news likely a buy”.   Must be the dying words of all the naysayer social media guru carcasses seen sprawled out by Friday’s close!.  Of course, majority of the move wouldn’t have happened if it wasn’t for earnings and the reactions changing and coming in ‘solid’ after a disappointing week 1. A big part of trading is preparedness and coming into week we were citing one of the ‘what if’s’  to rally the market laying out the steps ie.....Solid broad Europe earnings, US market sell off reactions would change,etc. to get the rally.  You can’t have the poor reactions we saw early keep coming in, if you have something like 80% of the corporations reporting positively and/or surprising. The averages were unlikely to change as the market went forward, if 16 out of 20 surprise positively, we’ll probably see 80 out of a 100 accomplish this and so on and on it goes.   

Recall,  a big key to keep the upside going and going is for investors to continue and see ‘value’ in stocks as we’ve been saying all month…..”… investors need to see value in stocks to keep the trend in tact for Q2 or market risks a correction later this month, earnings are the big key to that!”.   Okay, so far so good, but the market did generate some fresh headwinds, eg renewed Sovereign debt tension, even Financial links falling off earnings is a fresh concern along with rails/transports lagging the tape. It’s no surprise most investors were caught snoozing on the rip higher with all the negativity around. 

Now the excuse for many will probably be 'technical’  as we close at a cluster of SPX “R” resistance. It’s an endless circle of pessimism regurgitating through the market the last few years.  It’s always something that supposedly keeps real buying on the sidelines before realization hits and PA (performance anxiety chase) ensues.

Into the trading week, earnings can keep the momentum going, but some caution will be ahead of Bernanke’s ‘big day’, which will likely lead the market to consolidate.  The ‘Super Bowl’ hype over his first post-FOMC press conference will likely turn into a non-event with Will and Kate’s wedding likely offering more exciting.

Shadowlist

Broad range of Shadowlist linked stocks performed relatively well intraday, despite market not passing overnight highs as speculated post-AAPL exuberance in AMC.  Names with >3% gains are tagged on site.

Not everything a drift...

*Email feeds appear as excerpts, use link to access full text.

Late weekend newsflow out of China,’China to switch some FX into precious metals and energy’, had the PM bugs touting the end of USD.   An hour into the open, the herd jumping on this wire fell off as the trade backfired in most hard commodities with USD, even treasuries lifting.   A symptom of Europe closed for business equals an illiquid FX market, add the fact commodity linked stocks were off very little signalled the markets are really waiting for Bernanke on Wednesday (the decision will hit at 12:30pm/Bernanke hosts a press conf. at 2:15pm). That was the first hour and nothing changed by close, including shares not changing hands.

Consolidation was what we were looking for heading into the mid-week and this was just some of it playing out today with no hard eco’data and earnings taking a backseat to Bernanke.  Tuesday will likely be more of the same.

In all, trading days like this you don’t need to peruse the market drift for stocks to trade.  A glimpse onto the Shadowlist  early reveals enough action to possibly trade just off earnings related information.

ALB , initiated last week off earnings popped ~5pts/7%,  SOHU  had good earnings +8pts, SODA  a price target increase  to $50 /+8%, TZOO +7% on momo from earnings and price target increases. 

EPS reports in the next 24hrs off our list include,  APKT,CMI, ININ, UA, KEYN,ILMN

Update on Tuesday, April 26, 2011 at 01:29PM by Demi/ YourPersonalTrader

Messy tape: Looks like the bunch of industrial/material EPS beats/guide ups got some PA going into month end, unfortuantely at the expense of momo's/growth stocks who were used to take profits off on the pop. 

Probably best to look at those hit most %/or pts off ist, (ININ, UA silly off reports), China's, TZOO,PCLN

Cycle highs...

Seemingly, consolidation ahead of Bernanke lasted all of 1 day as a slew  of EPS beats/guide ups from Industrial, Materials in the pre-mkt caused some caution to come off and turn into PA (performance Anxiety) for month end.  After this morning’s results, all you are hearing is how ‘80%’ of SP is topping street estimates.  Today and tomorrow is the peak of earnings, so the 16 of 20 is growing and growing.  ..”… if 16 out of 20 surprise positively, we’ll probably see 80 out of a 100 accomplish this and so on and on it goes”… Into the trading week, earnings can keep the momentum going” (this weekend).   Importantly, trends for all sectors are pretty well known now as nearly 50% of SP has reported.  That’s enough to make investment decisions unless you think the ‘Utilities’ group (only 1/33 reported) is indicative of further global recovery or not. Included or rather not included in the move higher today was some rotation/ profit taking on the morning pop on recent winners/ high beta stocks as per follow-up today. In all, somewhat of a messy tape, but one that may bring inflows from the sidelines due to technical (indicies potential breakout) + earnings momentum in multi-nationals/industrials paving the way....”.It’s always something that supposedly keeps real buying on the sidelines before realization hits and PA (performance anxiety chase) ensues”.   Today's action might be enough as many investors/managers look for this criteria to put money to work. It looked like some cash was finally being laid out.  Days where high beta, high flyers provoke a breakout day have been far removed from the markets the past few years as they usually do their damage up to the breakout levels and some other group initiates the breakout. This why we haven’t seen a huge breakout day in months/year as it’s been a gradual and consistent bull market.

This weekend we alluded to the upcoming ‘hype’, now that we’re all at nauseating levels 48hours into the week,  the Bernanke Show is almost here.  Hopefully, it ends as a ‘non-event’ and earnings carry the momentum.

Update on Wednesday, April 27, 2011 at 09:28AM by Demi/ YourPersonalTrader

Hype is too funny. Seems expectation is as if Bernanke will answer, if he wears Boxers or Briefs?. Every answer will be 'commitee' based.