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Entries in CMED (8)


..What was that?

Well...that was what is a typical summer snooze off!. The indices churned and churned with no catalysts ( eg. little M&A activity or Eco numbers) to serve up any conviction on either side.  Maybe we shouldn't complain after the excitement lately, but if you're doing this full time, days like this make you cringe at the thought of more listless days.    Luckily, there were a few DJIM gorillas to get some through the day. Both MA and TNH continued their extended run with 4% days, another $100+ gorilla FWLT had a nice follow through day and closed with a NCH. You wanna talk about extended, how about that LPHI!.lol.   It probably causes a few hearts to skip a beat the way it trades intraday, but at the end of the day it closes at the the days high once again.  When a stock does get extended you might get a RCCC reaction day sooner than later. Oh yeah this one has bounced nicely off 9ema around $30 last so keep an eye on for a trade possibility here at that point.

Besides adding CMED off earning early on,  there was nothing new we bought.  We actually did more selling today, reducing some position sizes such as in KHDH, now KHD on nyse just to lock in some profits. 

KMGB shrugged off the IBD omission nicely.

MFLO reversed nicely back to $23 intraday. This one is fixated on $23 and it makes you wonder how many shares can go at that price before something positive happens.

Hopefully tomorrow brings some excitement..with a bullish bias of course.


Hump day..

Unfortunately, there isn't much to get over on hump day Wednesday following these last two days, which might be a good thing!. Considering the market has done little but trade in a tight range following the gap up, this lull might be more positive than anything else.  Still this market is driven now by the slightest news, so what might look positive can change in a flash.  Tomorrow is an important transport  FDX earning that might move things one way or another.  In the meantime, we'll continue to look at for the next new mover or the next move in an already played DJIM stock as in a couple today...

CMED, this one can catch the momo as seen this morning and this possibility is one reason we entered yesterday..playing off its history. Now that the stock has come down from its lofty heights following its IPO date in 2005, it might be ready for another leg up off its latest earning. Today's early morning spike to 32.98 might be due to a brokerage call on it and there might be more to follow. By adding another product line recently, it's growth is likely to keep ticking. As we said in our initial alert, its trading can be erratic. The good thing about that is it provides new buying opportunities.

AIRT, the good part of a slow moving market is it gives you time to lurk around some plays in more detail. Today we spotted a potential 'nibble' to be at around $10.50 that materialized into a move over $11. As other recent plays that are comparable to AIRT dry out,  we might get more traders coming to this fresh play. Today's chart might catch an eye or two as well now.

RCCC, last night we touched on RCCC as a potential trade to watch today. If you had it close on hand, maybe you were able to get something out of the nearly 4pt rebound.  When a stock climbs like RCCC from say $15 to over $40 in a few months sooner than later you get a biggie breakdown. They are inevitable and the same probably is the case for KMGB late in the day...

KMGB, and on the 15th of trading day following earnings it fell through the chimney and stomped its butt on the 9ema!. There was nothing we could see for the drop other the inevitable drop after 15 or so days of solid gains, especially for a low float winner.  We dont consider this play over at all and took this as an opportunity to get some back.  It might fall more tomorrow even if there is nothing of news substance, but like RCCC did today...we expect this to move back up.  We'll most likely start building up a position back up as the dust settles or see buying come in.  This sector is not going to fade off into the distance, today it was the #1 performer for most of the day and it will be again and again. We'd be more careful with TNH now.

CUB, continues on and today it was an extension of a big contract. Now nearly 50% since we alerted, we can say it has been recognized as a defense play as we noted it would sooner than later.

SDTH, it just feels its not far away from another leg up. With China cheapies getting play today, don't be surprised if it swings to here if the mania continues into tomorrow.

Also TBSI is back as one to possibly move into as it made a NCH today. ESEA is around as well.


Jun202007 a hot knife through buttah!

You can only churn and churn so much before the inevitable happens.  The inevitable could be a spike up or as said last night it could change in a 'flash' to the other side...down.  There is a mystery out there as to what transpired this afternoon.  In our view,  we churned so much the past few days, we became butter.   Briefing is left blaming it on the Bear Stearns hedge fund trouble because of subprime.  Hold on there...didn't we get past this and the possibilities that the subprime story could have created.  This news was also known on the 18th without a tear dropped. Another view is the bond yield soared!.   Puleeeze.... we just peaked at 5.30% and today it "soared" to 5.15 from 5.09%.!  Come on!.   All we can confirm once more is traders seem to go to the bathroom holding hands.   What is about 2pm that makes them go?.   Just like in skool, they all are seemingly instructed to holds hands and enter..or is it exit as was the case today.   As far as we can see, and we really don't want to see too far as we are trading for the moment (short term).. is that today was another day of churning that made holders weak and they were then easily sliced through at the first sign of a hot knife through buttah!!!. We all lose patience and the slightest tick of selling showed many the door, even if the news is not clear or if there is none at all of true importance.   They wait and wait and if the tick aint up, it doesn't take much to create a wave of selling.  Today it happened in a flash and it wasn't something that headlined , but one that left many scrounging for answers as to why after the close.  

We are looking at the Nasdaq here and will not get that bearish feeling maybe until/ if 2590ish is broken end of day.  What we expect here is the gap from Friday to hold and some buying to come in tomorrow.   Now, if we get some morning news to favor the Bears, well then we ain't going to get the buying, are we?.  

Basically, there was no real damage done to most of the stocks followed here at DJIM...

Still, this morning provided some opp's to either take some profits or just make the late selling not that big of a deal in a particular stock.  The names we are alluding to are stocks like....

KMGB, was a either a great trade off yesterdays plunge or just a good excuse to start another position in it.  Not bad if you picked up even at the open and not during yesterday late day fall, $23 to a high 24.70's and not a bad finish after all.  We'll hold tight.

SDTH, last night we pointed out the potential of this catching maybe some of the China mania we saw yesterday.  Maybe it spilled into it this morning, but we think it is more of this being a Chem-fertilizer with excellent earning then some beaten down cheap China stocks they've been speculating on into today's action again.   You could have enjoyed the trip to 5.90's or/and you could be very pleased with a NCH on this by close. Volume was good and there was interest left in the day for it not to be involved in the selling activity. A few were panicky, but the smart ones might have bought it back up by the close.  Last night we said don't be surprised.  Tonight, we repeat don't be surprised but with more conviction.

GTLS,  it made a nice move 26.80 to 27.50's after noted today and then got vacuumed by the market draft later on.   Well, at least now you know how it can move...up and down and why we've liked to trade it some before.   As far as the timing of the alert and how it coincides with a 1 minute chart today, all we could say is to each his own...own trading motives.  Some background on Chart Industries inc....manufactures and supplies engineered equipment used in the production, storage, and end-use of hydrocarbon and industrial gases. It operates in three segments: Energy & Chemicals(E&C), Distribution and Storage (D&S), and BioMedical.  A MS analyst gave it a $38 buy tgt today and said this is a possible next in line to Dresser-Rand which doubled since October.

Despite the close today, some morning movers held on to what they could to close green. These include CMED, TBSI, CROX, MFLO. CUB . As we said before....nothing was severely damaged that we follow and we'd look to capitalize on any rebound after today is digested late this week. Remember, we expect and welcome volatility this summer and considering today was nothing compared to what we witnessed just over a week ago in that 3 day sell off, it's not the end of the world as we know it.....Simply if you didn't act hastily during that plunge after day 3...why should you now with nothing concrete to push you over the edge.

A nice reversal is quite important tomorrow.... no matter what you make of today's exaggerated move.


Better than nothing....

"We are looking at the Nasdaq here and will not get that bearish feeling maybe until/ if 2590ish is broken end of day.  What we expect here is the gap from Friday to hold and some buying to come in tomorrow.   Now, if we get some morning news to favor the Bears, well then we ain't going to get the buying, are we?." 

Well...we didn't get any news noise in the morning but we still got an early continuation bump from yesterday, which was hardly a surprise considering what was a sizeable drop.  By 10am we hit that 2590ish mark (2586 low to be exact) and the rest is history.  Last night we thought there was no reason to fret, simply the bears caught the bulls napping after 3 days of churning yesterday.  That's the way we felt while it was all going on and later last night after catching our breath.   If it was the yield climbing yesterday...why didn't we go lower as it climbed to 5.19% today?.    Are we satisfied with today's reversal?.   The answer is no, but that could change tomorrow.   You see DJIM stocks have a way outperforming the indices and not performing on par when the market rallys.   We have seen this time and time again and have written about it many times.   Despite the rally today, it was really only for the techs on the Nasdaq...even the big caps really didn't perform to NASD snuff.   There were a few DJIM's that bounced nicely off low's...MA 6 pts...TNH 12 pts..FWLT got in the grove late for 3 pts, but the problem was with many of the small-micro caps that have been running here that didn't perform as we would have liked.   This list includes SDTH, KMGB, CMED, LXU, AIRT, VSNT etc. but a few did like LPHI, TBSIGHM  (34k vol. woo hoo).   Still..besides the few it was uninspiring in the scope of things, but at least yesterdays fall did not continue today.   So..maybe we shouldn't be so picky....Yeah right!.  Let others and their niches have a good time while we are predominately left out.   NO WAY, JOSE!

If today wasn't just a blip like the fall yesterday was....well then we expect some action in the DJIM stocks that did little today to move tomorrow. This is even if the market digests today's gains and does little all day...but we do have the Blackstone (BX)  IPO tomorrow, which should help the karma on the trading floors.  Maybe it can spread...



DJIM #26 2007

You wanna talk about a market driven on any hint of news..well we've got one, which is leading to volatility left, right and center. This is hardly a bad thing for many traders who are being selective and opportunistic.  We've noted a finish below 2990 NASD would give us maybe that bearish feeling, well 2589 Fridays close is really not it.   We are seeing recent leaders maintain their 'strong' stock tags and that gives some optimism that we won't see big declines with earning season approaching once more.  We are simply being driven by any news, unfortunately some old and some new crept into the market Friday. The old is the possibilities of a Bear Stearns saga unfolding, we all knew this could rear its ugly head one day or another and it is coming to the market now once again.  Frankly we like the battle between BS and ML.  It's funny.  All they are doing is pounding each others stock.  You think BS didn't kick MLynchs butt back on the market for what they did?.. They didn't do it by selling 100 ML lots.    The new news is the government intervention into the markets.  It started with trying to stop the BX IPO and then spilling into a full blown attack by introducing legislation that would more than double taxes on the hedgies, buyout firms and more.  This accelerated the selling Friday and we are clearly at the mercy of news.. any news.  If it's not the Yield, then it's the Gov's nose..then its the subprime stuff coming into the psyche of traders.  The thing that got this rally going was brought on by earnings!!.  It was earnings driven and the savior in all this might be that the focus will slowly turn to earnings in the media that kick off July 9th.   As we've said many times before, we don't see a market tanking just before earnings.   We hope this is the case this summer and with the SMH showing some leadership,  it might be the way to think.   Anyhoo.., what we will continue to do is be selective and opportunistic with a hint of caution, which is never a bad thing to keep you on your toes... A few selective opp's from last week, lead off for this week, everything else just keep an eye on 9ema, volume and  look over the charts posted.  They are there as a 'GUIDE' for those not so experienced, those who can't pull the trigger one way or, but most importantly SELL....Don't get beaten down in any position that you can't get back up from!....How do you know you can't or won't? ...well you don't, so don't risk finding out!

CMED, an early week alert for a buy in under $30, it traded between 31-33 for the rest of the week.  It has a few things going for it into this week. First, technically as you probably can see by its 30 minute chart.  Second is you throw it's IBD inclusion at #82 this weekend into the pot and stir. What you have is the ingredients to see this go through it's resistance from last week.

GTLS, a buy in in the $26's mid week this sustained its move and showed even better strength on Friday as it kicked up to $28.80 high. Another 1mln volume day and you start to think it is slowly being discovered. DRC is #64 IBD and this is the one GTLS was compared with as noted in a Journal entry last week.

LPHI, MACHINE!. What else can you say about it so far.   It trades in its own little world away from all the noise of the market. 

SDTH, it looks quite ready for another leg up and the best thing was maybe it didn't move yet (on Friday). Nothing like a few more days for some to digest the potential chart play here on a break if it occurs.

SPAN, this recent alert DJIM for a leg up is a trade idea for early in the week.  A helluva week for it and then a drubbing from $27+ to 24 on Friday intraday. Over 3 pts down on Friday market action down.  Thinking this will get a rebound , it is IBD100 inclusion at #73. 

You have to deal with what is front of you.  At this point, we have to admit the market took a drubbing last week and because of that we should be more cautious.  Nobody knows what will come out of the horses mouth next..or do we know who or what will be the horse that leads a stampede one way or another.   We just think earnings chit chat will take over shortly and the other noise might actually stop.  We'll see...let's hope!


It would've been a lot easier...

if all we had to is to check the final box score of the market action today.    Oh yes, it's just another logical follow through of Friday's decline.....  However, today's action is just anything but calm!!.    The key of today's action is the reversal of all of the intraday gain.    Despite the fact that both indices did not close near the low, it is the shear volatility that gave many traders that unsettling feeling, it is something we all need to care about.   It's whacky out there and seemingly many are following the major indexes, even the micro/small caps start to follow immediately,  which is making this out of whack in some respects.  Sure, this is summer trading but we are still few days before July kicks in.    What it means that it is going to be another long summer for traders unless earnings gives us a jolt!    We also want to point out that both Dow and Naz are getting very close to the 50 ema and that is something some of us may need to keep it in our mind for.

As traders, we definitely liked the way the day started but do not like the way the market finished or what transpired mid day..    Sure, many stocks on our watchlist still ended up in green territory but many of them are quite a way off their intraday top.    Here are some interesting ones...

LPHI, if we all knew what this one was capable of, we'd all have parked lots of cash into this one when we first noticed it.    This one pulled another impressive finish today and at this point we are not even speculating how much higher it can go.    One thing for sure though, is that this one is super extended and any long trade here requires super caution to execute.   We'd really prefer a pullback from this one and we'd just have to wait and find out when it will happen.

FSLR/JASO/LDK,  in terms of solar plays, it's getting more obvious that these three are the leaders and ones we'd be looking to play to this time around.   And out of these three, the best one is still FSLR and there's no sign of its slowing down this original DJIM solar play.    These are niche plays that people tend to trade...irrespective of the index movement.

TNH, lately, it seems this is really the only chemical co. that mattered in the world of stock trading.    We really liked its action today and especially its finish.    We do want to point out that this one can be very volatile when it's having a bad day.

CMED, maybe we just need to give this one some more time and some more room before it's done digesting its recent move.    We will be keeping our eyes closely on this one as the breakout could literally come any time. 


..Too close to call..

..25bps or 50bps?...How cares now..!.  Let's just get this over with and move on!.    Last Tuesday, we put a cautionary spin on the DJIM players and therefore the market.  This has turned completely into a lack of set ups and muted action in those players.  Just look at the Russell 2000. Last Tuesday's close was 782, yesterday 775 and nothing more than a 15pts range within this time frame to trade.   You can't do much with that as far as trading opportunities go.   We'd rather have the credit crunch back in the news and trade those small banks on the LSE the past few days than sit through more of this grinding action.    So, that's why we say, let's just get this FOMC over and take it from might be a case of double or nothing, or doubling up or not  on the bps cut and 50% of the experts who have put money to work..on the line are not going to be happy.   This decision is far reaching as its going to make a significant difference to all the markets from equity to currency.    We've taken a different approach and that is not bet on either and be positioned very thinly as far as dollars invested heading into the afternoon.    Just don't do 25bps today and say that's all, folks!.    This looney tune from the Fed would send the market tumbling.    It's the accompanying statement that will play a the vital role as we want to hear they will be ready to do more.   So, that is the afternoon, but let's not forget the very crucial morning as the report from LEH kicks off the big banks reporting season.   This might leave this market stained for the FOMC decision if they didn't find a way to fudge the book with BS MS GS that follow this week.  Traders / investors will scrutinise these results from head to toe. far as individual plays yesterday of interest....

BIDU was definitely the one and really only that was of interest yesterday for us and traders in the momentum space.  Unfortunately, as always BIDU to us is a day trading stock and really not fitting to most of our subscriber base. The price also dictates that many are not going to dish out the bucks to make this a worthwhile trade on most days, so we tend to leave it off the board here.

EJ, last week we said 'volume' will dictate if its worth a further trade.   Yesterday, the initiations started for this recent Chinese real estate IPO and it got the volume going.  CIBC with a $25 and Lazard with a $23.  There were also some huge trades in this at 20 even, so there might be some protection from the usual volatility, especially to the downside.   A possible spin that we are trading now is that the lead book runners of the IPO will initiate in the next couple days, maybe Tuesday...Merrill Lynch, a tier 1 being one of them.

ROS,  last week we alerted this Russian telco again.   It's slow, which might be the best medicine the past week. Yesterday in the afternoon it got highlighted by Briefingcom....New High Profiles: OAO Rostelecom(ROS) sitting just below its all-time high of 61.55 set last Thursday after edging above the top of its Jul-Sep is difficult to pinpoint a single event that has acted as the catalyst for the shares. However, we note ....recently reported impressive financial results,  FY06 results on 7/19 in which the co posted a 49% YoY increase in net profit and a 50% increase in revs....Deutsche Bank recently commented (8/30) that Russian operators are continuing to benefit from growing usage and a benign pricing environment, after VIP reported strong Q2 results on 8/30...

CMED, SIMC  are a few names played here before making new highs intraday without faltering by close.


Fruits of the consolidation...

We now know why the market wanted to consolidate for the past few days, the market was setting up for action like today.    Ok, we have pointed out in the past few days that consolidation can be frustrating and not fun.    Fortunately, consolidation comprises down and up action.  Hopefully, today's action would make us forget about the frustration we had to endure the last couple of days.    Now lets recap some action here...    First, some of our members would like to know what's the point of recapping everyday's action at the end?    For starter, recapping the action would give us an idea what events and action transpired during the day so we can better prepare for trading ahead.    We can look forward to the plays that were doing well today, assuming good action gets some kind of follow through.    Secondly, by recapping the action, we'd have an idea exactly where we are in this market.     Compare to yesterday, today's events are much more exciting and meaningful, in our opinion.     By not having to review the action at the end of the day, we would simply start the next trading day half blindly, in a way.  It all depends how one uses the Journal, for many its been a learning tool of our methodology, our frame of mind.  This morning the Journal might have reminded you of SIGM recently noted here as a buy the dip earnings play prospect.  It had a great day.   Our lead was the China's and that we are still trading the lot of them.  This has worked for a week and today it spread to the more speculative lot.  Makes sense doesn't it that this part might try to get into the act sooner than later.  We also said the Solars heading into today are getting harder to see as an easy trade, today that spilled further as most finished lower than their opening price in a fast market.  Bascially, it's all in your interpretation of how you take the Journal in.  To most the Journal is 'leading' them into the next trading day, this includes recapping.

So it this market more of the same?   Are we expecting some better action in the near term or what?    We think today's the proof that we CAN definitely get some good trading action in the next little while.    This time, Fed is on our side and recent oversold condition coupled with the seasonal factor can and should propel this market to gain some upside ground.

Many big technology stocks did well today!  It's always good to see companies like INTC MSFT AAPL to carry the index weight.    As long as the Indices are in the firm green territory, we as traders can pick off little ones to make our play.

SIGM/PCLN/VIP/MBT, these are few of the latest earning winners we are busy trading today.    We have mentioned all of these before on the site, (a few for over a year) and they all notched a nch today.    This goes to show that even in a crisis environment, we can still have earning plays that stand out from the crowd.   We like all of their action and we'd expect follow through from them if the market keeps up the good spirit.    We'd also wouldn't mind buying these on dips as long as the 9 ema isn't breached.  If you want firm coverage reports on MBT- Russian mobile and VIP following it's earnings, send an email for the PDF's.

WDC, we noted this one following earnings Sept 11 on a premarket Journal note.  The stock was $22-23, today it hit $31 after raising its profit forecast including December.  In our view this a huge revision and a good market will definitely take note.  On the other hand this stock has performed well in rocky times.

China Plays, from early last week, we'd pointed out that many Chinese plays seemed to be stabilizing and we'd be getting our foot back into some of these names.   Today, the entire sector lit the fire and all of the names on our watchlist have done heck of a job with some speculative leading the charge.     Our strategy here is that since it's the entire sector move, we can not afford NOT to play even the speculative ones.  Just to point a few out, we still like EDU LFT STV WX CMED... as the quality ones but the speculative ones like CHNR JRJC EFUT... are also on our playlist.   Now we believe the move we seen today may last a few days because the last time we recalled, China sector move doesn't just pop one day and die.  Keep you eyes open for a possibility of more.

Solars, this is the area which we were concerned about heading into the day as per Journal.   We are a little concerned over the somewhat overheated action from the speculative solar plays but as well as the looming energy bill.    There's a very likelihood that there's going to be a "sell on news" reaction.   We'd like to see how some plays react to the news first before venture our way back in.    Because of many other plays out there today, we all can afford to take a little cautious attitude toward this sector for now.