DJIM #13 2007

As we head into another week of trading, we begin to wonder who is doing the 'blowing'.  Well....it was like hurricane gusts to propel this market.  All this despite oil going back to $62 and a few other world issues that didn't dampen the buying during the week.   Someone ' big' wants this market up...might the earnings and guidance coming up be a reflection of this enthusiasm or we just being set up for a hard thrashing at the awaiting tops???.  The timing seems quite interesting as we approach another earnings season.  Should be interesting.  Our strategy remains the same as we take this day to day, attacking opportunities as they come before us.  Last week was a hoot on many trading fronts....we hope we get a third of it this week.

ASTI provided the speculative trading. We tried to walk our strategy on DJIM cause ASTI seemed to have a chance of catching momo.  This momo can be a powerful thing and could also be a dangerous thing.  We've done the same with EFUT, FFHL giving in depth thoughts as it trades along.  What momo brings is also greed as all of a sudden 20% in a few days is just not enough.  We gave our next entry point as to when we were expecting a break and some momo and then a heads up premarket Friday to watch that good ole' Mr. Greed as the stock gapped and gave you an opportunity to pocket the gap winnings.  We said our script was written to that point, this means Mr.Greed was not going to look over our shoulder the rest of the day.  How will it trade this week?. Who knows but this story will have ample opportunities to trade in and out in the future.  We'll be there in size again but for now we'll hold a small position only.

OEH,  provided the long term DJIM thinking coming to fruition with a 3bln price tag attached. If you didn't take a position on this speculation we talked about a few months ago, it shouldn't have stopped you from buying and profiting nicely in the last 3 days of trading.   It still gave a 2-3 pt day Friday after we pointed out in the forum that the price some are expecting could be higher.  We've held quite a bit into weekend hoping to wake up to a buyout on merger Monday. This is a safer type of greed as we look for a few more points.

The big gains last week came from the Oil/Gas equipment/field services etc and DJIM was there with BTJ and its 13+% week.  Here, we also have DXPE which looks to be building up for a move higher.  If you are going deeper into this sec/energy, we threw out OYOG, which IBD says this weekend  is within a buying range.

On the Russian front, GLDN which was already a go here in last weekends Journal went from low 52's to a few cents shy of $57. But the play mentioned Monday night, might be VIP going forward. Why?.  Well...do you remember how this went last Q when we took on MBT and then said we could get a spill into VIP and other Russian telcos. Guess what, MBT put out very good earning and this should be a hint of what to expect from VIP's earning.  VIP closed with a NCH Friday.  Also... one of DJIM early plays, WBD made a nice run late in the week to close at NCH and should be potential playlisted.

As far as Solar, we said last weekend they'd be interesting to watch and as it turned out to trade.  FSLR checked in with a 7-8 points during the week.  It tired some Friday, but maybe that was expected as profit taking sunk in after a big week.  Still...it finished up there on the chart and remains our favorite solar story/stock to trade.

AFAM, NVTL and others are pretty clear over on BT's charts.

CRZ AMAG, we are watching to uncork a few dollars into but we need to see more action to add.

**Remember to visit website and check into DJIM Trader Alerts-Comments to activate email delivery by pressing Subscribe on top of page.  See forum note on this subject as we will be using the link for Alerts- Comments starting Monday.

Play Ball!

Nice market action to go with it!   Maybe people are excited b/c today's the opening day of the baseball season, but whatever the case, we are definitely enjoying a change of pace from this market.    Yes, this is a short week but there was nothing short on setups today.   We had many setups to consider and we played most of them.   The question remains, is this sort of action going to last a couple of days?    We think the odds is high that we see some continued good action and timing is just about right too going into the earning season.    Lets just get right into some action here...

WBD, hope you didn't get tired of seeing WBD recently here?, today was the payoff with a big move over $83. A 5 point intraday move from low to high of day.

BW, this was a big earnings winner here from low 40's to 49.  It rebounded recently and consolidated near the top.  $50 was probably the breakout point and it broke out convincingly, with volume of course.    We like this one and feel this could be the beginning of a leg up.   At this point, we don't know how high it can go but as long as the momentum is there and trading action looks positive, we'll just ride it along.

JSDA, we noted during the weekend journal that Cramer definitely has an effect on a stock like this one.   We sure got the action from it today and it's now ready to challenge the old high.   We think there's enough enthusiasm and momentum from speculators/traders that this one can go higher.   Market's stability is also providing a catalyst for people to pile some capital into some of these momentum names.

GMRK, although this one is new on our playlist , it's definitely one we've had our eyes on for a while.   We like its consolidating action last little while and earlier today we felt it could b/o.   Action was confirmed and we followed.  Hopefully this one keeps up a good pace next little while.  Remember in quality plays it is not about catching the initial move but just being in it when it continues.  Did it matter if you bought BW the first time at 42 or 44 if it got to $49?. The point is finding the right plays and we think this one could be one.

GROW, it looks like some stocks just won't go away.   We didn't play the most recent rise b/c we weren't sure how the stock is going to act after the split.   Well it setup nicely today and this is something we couldn't just pass on.    Again, this stock is very much a momentum stock and it's pure momentum trading, nothing more.   We just want readers to be aware of this fact and trade accordingly, and with a cool head.

OYOG  OEH  BTJ  HOT NIHD,  just some good old fashioned action/setup with these ones and we added some of each today.

There are probably a few other ones worth mentioning but we felt there's so much out there today that everyone can get a couple of his/her own favourite and call it a day.    Three more days to go till the long weekend and lets keep our fingers crossed for some good action for the next couple of days.  With the Nasdaq barely green end of day, we can definitely say we had DJIM readers in the right stocks today.

DJIMstocks.com Alerts blooming in April..

What are DJIM Alerts-Comments?. They are up to the minute "leads' to members available on our site or via email delivery. These are stocks we are closely watching for a trade, a heads up of sorts and ones we have just bought.  This section is mostly for the trader during market hours and those who are familiar with the DJIM trading methodology and the stocks from our nightly Journal.  We only send out 'only' 1-3 Alerts-Comments a day, which some days includes some of our plays for a next day move.  In the evening, we follow up in our nightly Journal blog on most of the activity that day in regards to our buys/ play listed stocks.

Here are a few examples of the DJIM Alerts-Comments feed in the first two weeks of April.

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

JSDA, this was not first week we issued some timely alerts on JSDA. The latest was with this Thursday morning note with JSDA around $24 with our ready trigger fingers...

Apr 12, 2007 at 10:53AM ." Everyone seems to waiting on JSDA/9ema break yesterday,ibd mention today. We're waiting for volume to re-enter".

Apr 12, 2007 at 03:48PM    "we noted JSDA early and is our only add this afternoon/today.

Friday the 13th, JSDA exploded for another 10% and a AH's price in the high $28's

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

UXG, rallied Friday to a high of $6.79 before closing up 16.2%

UXG was a DJIMstocks buy alert a few days before in premarket at $5.60's." UXG, a gold stock w/ results yesterday. Not a one day story we think, will look to buy dips here and there..bot some premkt 5.60's.for a first try"  Apr 11, 2007 at 09:27AM

The night before the BIG move, we noted UXG in our nightly Journal blog. ".....quickly climbed to over $6 at the open and a a quick 6-7% for the flippers here.  Well, we actually did some of that and as we said we will look to buy the dips, which we did later again.  Having some gold rather than the Nasdaq stuff seemed like a better idea later in the day.  We are traders and if we get 6-7% in the first 10minutes, we will take it.  It finds itself there over $6 in AH's today and we think it goes higher..."

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

MFW,  a DJIM stock buy in and closely followed stock since $26-28 area.  An Alert was issued on Apr 5, 2007 at 09:41AM...

"MFW, Harland deal news last night seems to be liked".   This lead was issued with 4300 shares in the books with the price around $52.   The stock spiked to $61 high that day with volume of 1.8mln and biggest play of the day as strong momentum came to this closely followed stock by DJIM readers.  A possible 8-9 pts in one day or 15%+

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

DNDN, we were prepared the night of DNDN news to play it the next day!.".....we'll most likely take a position with some funny money as in a $2 ticket at the races.  Its all about being at the show, like the Kentucky Derby and not about winning.  This is the fun of trading, you could really make some money but you must be prepared for every other possibility. This won't be a one day trade, so once in it's probably better to stick through the jumpy action. "

The next morning we were there from the start, Mar 30, 2007 at 07:24AM , issuing an alert as it traded in the $16's saying it will probably hit the $19 high. Well...it did for those wanting a quick trip.  For those buying the jumpy action and buying the idea of this being not a one day trade and holding through has paid big time as DNDN has traded over $25.

"DNDN up and running already, high of 19, now 16.60..will probably hit high again premkt..
Probably surprised a few getting up with halt released so early ..so the chasers will most likely be in bloom come 8am or so "

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

GROW, Apr 2, 2007 at 01:42.  First we issued an Alert in the morning that included. "Oh yeah and potentially for a piece of GROW later" and then another that we  "also added GROW here" at 03:52PM with the stock around $28 for a breakout play.

We got a nice move the next day and then on 7 million shares the following day GROW shot to a nickel short of $35 and we were all there with our readers for a potential 25% move in 2 trading days!!

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

TSL,  Apr 3, 2007 at 02:36PM,ALERT..."We've bot TSL mid 46's and will add if it gets to 48's "

          Apr 4, 2007 at 10:25AM , ALERT.."as per yesterday buy note of TSL, we've added more here in 48's "

           Apr 9, 2007 at 11:47AM ,ALERT..TSL,remember that block of 50k or so asking at $49.80? it's gone now and the march is on. We added on the break of $50 .    The next day TSL hit a high of 56.94 and on April traded up to $59. A potential 10 or more points as we took our readers through our TSL buys.

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

WBD, a DJIM followed buy since September came back to our books recently in our weekend update March 28 and then alerted again the 29th.-

Mar 29, 2007 at 03:49PM-ALERT, WBD, mentioned this weekend in DJIM list. Earnings are very good and no usual sell off has happened. Looking for confirmation, might come soon over $79 to take a piece.

In 3 trading days, WBD shot up to $86+ . Another 6 point potential play in a few days!

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

See preview section 2006 for the set up inside DJIMstocks.com.  (navigation bar to the left).

Above is some of the action you'll find available inside DJIMstocks.com member section.  Many more plays inside including those from our fellow traders in our daily message board forum.  For those into technical analysis/charts or wanting to take a class, we have our plays regularly updated by an experienced chartist, who just picked off a beautiful move in ASTI this week!

 Happy Trading!

...Mirage

A mirage..that's all this summer subprime crisis was!. A big head head fake just for some to buy lower and then have a meteoric rise to new heights...distortion created with lots of blowing of cold and hot air!. Okay, maybe not completely true but how else do you explain this recent rebound, yesterdays possible breakout moves off what could have been perceived as bad morning news.  The subprime news, the Citigroup headlines had no impact on the markets.  When was the last time we saw this?.   We've turned on a dime with every headline from this front....but not yesterday.   This is old news simply and the market wants to get on with earnings and what is generally the best Q in the markets.   A beneficiary of this market was plain and simple to see, one niche was the DJIM covered plays that blew past the competition.  A simple point to our trading methodology is to have a sane niche of stocks to follow, not an insane number that can't be watched closely enough to recycle. This is why we have a watchlist/play list that we hope you follow.    It saves you time and money.  Yesterday was a day for our beloved..

FSLR, an alert last week to a potential breakout move this week was the solar play to be in.  The other two we closely follow, LDK got 'briefed' to death yesterday on it's equipment pushouts,  JASO did nada and is selling more of their ADR's this morning.  If you shadow our plays, you saw we were only on FSLR back at this time.

GS, noted the tight range of trading the previous two days in yesterdays Journal.  On a good market day these ranges can balloon to the upside and this is what we saw here.  We are about collecting points and not the % gain, so to us this was up to a 8pt move yesterday. With FSLR and GS there was almost 15+ pts from our final remarks on Friday and yesterdays morning Journal highlighting them.

DRYS, EXM continued forward to new highs with some IBD print on the sector and a couple of price upgrades in the morning. TBSI got back in the hunt and is close to highs.

MR, EJ, moved to new levels and JRJC proved to be a worthy trade for those familiar with it.   Now, we just ask WX to get some game and it will have our most recent China plays on even ground. Oh yeah..where was BIDU yesterday?.  Lets no forget this rocket ship when looking for a good intraday trade.

VMW, we don't cover much tech, but VMW has been the one we have traded the most.   Finally..this one is acting with the sector which is leading the recent parade and not playing on its own terms. $90+ is in reach now.

ROS, GLDN our Russian telco plays are not be forgotten as long as they cling to highs and therefore offer more upside potential in the near future.  WBD moved to 114 intraday after it was noted as a possible reversal play from 111's. This one provides some volatile thin action with some large spreads. the worst thing you can do is put in market orders in this play.

ANW, LULU cover the ipo watchlist here.

LWAY, we don't know what rumor was out there but this recent play was a hurricane yesterday. Congrats to any that have held through. Yesterday was exit day.

CSCT, the chart looks good but we have to keep mum on OTB stocks or we will have a flood of them on the forum. Sooner or later a bad one be printed on the forum and will cause a few to drown, so we try to avoid till they are listed.

As important as finding the right and easy plays, it is just as important to think out load and give our thoughts on plays like SSTR, even if you won't like it.  We're not talking about your Mama, we're talking stocks here.!    Hopefully, we saved some of you some cash yesterday.   Anything could rebound, we just have no interest at this time.  

We'd also remove GRMN off our watchlist. There are too many unknowns here now.  Last week gains look like a set up to the news yesterday. Those shorts got something to cheer about yesterday.

This probably covers 80-90% of the plays here recently,  if you don't have all day to peruse the entire stock world for plays then this list is all you need to carry you and your book.  It's not a lot of stocks.  This is just a reminder and for those that are new here.   Days like yesterday are the icing and come around quite a bit.   Just have money on hand for fresh stocks this new earnings season, as we noted in our last alert.

DJIM #42 2007

Here we are DJIM clan, the week we've been all anticipating as the tech giants start reporting...INTC, YHOO, EBAY, IBM, GOOG to give this market its course.  Somebody(s) wanted to start early Friday by showing that Thursday's beating was nothing but a mirage as noted in the last lines of the morning Journal.."Tech stuff this am..ORCL M & A news,   AAPL tgt raised by MS,     IBM estimates raised by JPM before next weeks report...as if yesterday's tech wreck didn't happen;)'.     This was was followed with Oppe' giving GOOG a $700 tag.     Aren't these guys off Fridays?.      Guess with a Blackberry you could shoot off a price tgt increase/ upgrade from anywhere these days.      Coincidence of all these coming out on what is usually a quiet Friday scene,  plus M & A activity tossed in?.       Doubt it, these firms are seemingly gonna do whatever they can to grease this market higher it seems,   maybe we're being set up for a final push into the end of '07..a push that could leave us all hiding in the bush for a while when this all ends.  lol.      Anyways...all we could do is take it one day at a time here and therefore we are all playing it smart....right?.     Without panicking on Thursday, we noted in the last half hour to let this market drain, "the market will still be there tomorrow and the noise will settle'.     We were asked by a few of you to give our interpretation of the steep and quick turnaround from the techs and that is what we did before the open the next day..     Well...it actually started with our AH Alert on BIDU and the BS surrounding the JPM report on it and the match it was on the box leading to the tech's fall.    Maybe the big boys wanted a fire sale just before earnings this week just to load up, maybe that's why the barrage of activity from them on these names premarket the next day.      If you weren't taking profits Thursday, well then you probably made up your paper losses by holding through the night.     Maybe you even added more as the bus got gased and you added to your positions into what turned out to be potentially a very profitable trading day.   Hell...just if you got on the BIDU bus once or twice it would have been nice.   We're not Cramer with a $500 push for BIDU late in the day, we don't care what is does today or tomorrow, all we try to do is give an early lead on a stock and maybe if you agree and see the ducks line up as they did with tech upgrades, then you will shadow us into the play.   Okay... We need to put last week behind us now as the EPS story starts to unfold,  but there are few quick stocks to note off the close last week...

CETV, looked sweet as it broke through the congestion noted at our $98 alert.     It had a nice afternoon as buying picked up and it closed at $104 mark.    You couldn't ask for a better chart on the daily and weekly leading up into earnings for this stock or any stock.   You might recall when the market was taking a beating, we discussed the potential of money flow into Chinese, Russian stocks, half of the BRIC.    On Friday, our GLDN reached another high off our last alert on it at $82 to $89's and it is taking the other Ruskies with it... VIP and MBT have reached new heights as well.      Another one followed here closely all the time because of its volatility and ability to shoot a moon shot intraday is WBD, the Russian dairy/beverage co.    It  had a beauty of a walk up Friday as you could see by the intraday chart.  This one could give it up just as quick always remember,  but the way it was ladder walked for 5 hours makes you wonder what's up.     It never trades so orderly.   Just like the Chinese stocks, we are continuing to favor this Euro flavor.

Speaking of the Asian stocks, if you look at the charts from this weekend, you'll see the potential resistance on the HANG at 29,000.   Have you seen the overnights?.    Unbelievable, these markets have no respect for any resistance, any potential top.  It just did a drive by and gave this 29,000 the finger!.  So what does mean?.  Well,   just potentially another day to trade our DJIM names.   There is a name that has crept up the last 2 days and has offered a whole lot of gain % potential.    If you didn't catch it Thursday, maybe you caught it on Friday and if it rides the train further off 2 consecutive volume days...well then we might get a 3rd day of opportunity.    Again, this HSWI falls into the speculative and does come with a warning, even though it looks to have some of the volatility subsiding and something might be cooking as its under accumulation it seems.   Icahn, making lots of headlines recently. EJ traded stupidly at first too.   Not saying its a EJ,  just how it traded in its first weeks when you had no clue which direction it would go on any given day.

EDU, a few nice points off the note on it in alerts Friday midday and going on the limb here at first glance over the report and saying this is a great report this morning!.   Still...remember let the market show you the way and if they agree with us, the bus will move and you will consider jumping on.   Why does this look good?.   Besides the headline numbers of beating by .12c  (91mln vs. a lofty 79c)55% growth YOY, 81 mln in revenues beats 72mln and is 42% growth YOY.   The kicker is a very nice 30% enrollment growth and 40%+ operating margins.      Sales growth of 42% and 30% enrollment means efficiency and power.    In our opinion, this is the barometer (enrollment)with operating/ gross margins that you judge this stock on!.   Hey, we went on the limb early with WBD recently off earnings and it payed off big quickly..lets try again.   Yes, this baby China was once $20 dollars here, she's all grown up and kicking on all cylinders.   Still...there is a CC to follow premkt.   Let the market show you the way.   It would be rude to have sell the news in this report, but who knows..lol. Good to have the Asian markets possibly lead this as well. 

We did a lot of selling into strength last week as we prepare to have cash readily available to barrel in on new plays arising from earnings reports. This is something we always preach here as we settle into another earnings season.   Have cash on hand!.   For some of you it might be a problem cause you've become infatuated with a big gainer such as DRYS, TBSI etc over the months.    Just remember, she can always dump you first from the lofty perch you have her sitting on.  There is a big derivative market here placing bets in the Shipping industry, you're with the Hedgies here big time and it will probably get more volatile as time passes.    At least consider lightening up some of your recent big winners into EPS season.    We've provided a look recently in the Journals as to the things to watch and be aware of when considering a headline EPS number.    We don't doubt the Shippers and stuff will be in play, but we have worked them over and over here and hopefully it is now time to discover some new blood and start from the bottom and watch them climb, just like we did with all the DJIM Shippers, China, even Russian plays.  We want the easy play and that usually starts with getting in on play before the herd comes marching in, sometimes it takes days or weeks...sometimes just a few minutes.

Cheers' mates!

..Off-Roading

Hope you had yourself a good 4X4 yesterday for all the crazy bumps and bends of the market pounding your kidneys!.   A good seat belt might be in order not to get dismounted as the noise from all headlines is over bearing the earnings reports from the big names at this time.   As we said before the open yesterday, we can't do anything about the noise and just have to go on trading what is in front of us and hopefully working for more than a day trade.   Despite the jitters still prevailing in the market arena, opportunities were still there on the stocks we've been tossing out...

WBD,  ...this was one stock that required no seatbelt yesterday as it glided avoiding all the potholes others were encountering.  Just the day before we noted its $110 top and the moon shot came of 10-11 points from the top break.   This might have more legs as it made a NCH, but we know it's trading history well and always put days like this in our pocket and dismount.  We'll be back, especially if it holds these levels in the days to come and sets up again or if it shows signs of working the NCH higher.

"Another one followed here closely all the time because of its volatility and ability to shoot a moon shot intraday is WBD, the Russian dairy/beverage co.    It  had a beauty of a walk up Friday as you could see by the intraday chart.  This one could give it up just as quick always remember,  but the way it was ladder walked for 5 hours makes you wonder what's up.     It never trades so orderly. "

YTEC, now you know why we said this has momo trade capabilities.   The quickness and steepness of its late day charge shows what we might have on our hands here,  with it you have to accept the early action as a characteristic of such stocks.   Just have a barf bag in your 4X4 handy.  This China IT and outsourcing co' has a knack of reacting nicely to any news it throws out.    Considering their business is with the thriving bank business'',  you can expect this stock to be a possible PR machine of contracts that will jolt it constantly.     We noted midday these momo stocks do not play to a schedule, meaning if the indices are popping it shouldn't be a surprise they are not following along as we saw in the morning and then eventually an eye popping move late in the day when the markets were struggling.    As far as its fellow country bud, JRJC,   it basically followed the path of BIDU and many other stocks gapping and then steadily coming down.    The reason we book this with BIDU, is its in the same universe you could say.  It's from China and has the momo trading flavor of BIDU type...simply after its recent ride we know its capabilities to move and draw attention of traders just like BIDU has over time.    The 60min shows higher lows, a clean and jerk over $40, meaning a good close over $40 would give this a nice looking daily chart and most likely some much anticipated action again.    The risk should never be forgotten with momo stocks, we've also seen this side of JRJC.

The other names we are trading and/ or top of the trading list are all familiar DJIM names.... EDU CETV HMIN LULU BCSI GLDN VMW JST.  RBN off EPS and VMI, always seem to appear here after earnings and both do so again.

Even though trading opp's are all over the place, a day without some many bumps in the road would be a welcomed sight.....Yeah, right..as if!

Accumulation...

Despite the overnight surge in the Asian market, the North American market didn't seem to quite match the same kind of intensity as overseas.    Still, market closed pretty well.   We have Fed meeting this coming Wednesday and the consensus is that Fed will lower the rate.    Again, this is not just anticipated,  it's also being expected.   The question now is how big of a rate cut will we be facing?    Is this the real question we should care about?    No, what we really care is how this market reacts to a 25 pt cut or a 50 pt cut?    In the unlikely event, how will the market react to a no rate cut?    Basically, there are two probable scenario and one unlikely one.   At this point, there's really no reason to overwork a strategy to anticipate the reaction, we'll just have to deal with whatever happens.

As we have been saying for a while, we don't think this rate cut will impact the overall market sentiment by much.    Hopefully, this market is still being earnings driven, and not fear driven, which means that the familiar names will carry this market higher.    There's a lot of disbelief of why this market is at the current level and that actually serves as a good point.    You definitely don't want to see everyone being optimistic and basically we need just as many bears calling for downturn, recession etc. in order for this market to go higher.

LFT STV.    Lets talk about these two as we have been getting some emails toward the end of the day concerning the well being of these two plays.    At this point, what we really want to stress is that these two are IPO's and now LONG term plays as yesterdays Journal noted.  These were already short term plays if you're only looking for a fast trade.  Being an IPO, there's basically no historical trading pattern to dictate a stocks movement.   It means that they will be volatile at the early going, especially the first week or two after its IPO.    That's the way it is!    We have to accept the fact these stocks are brand new and we have to slowly work our positions for a longer time frame as oppose to treating it like a JRJC or EFUT!     If you have any doubts about these two plays, just think about the following facts.     When was the last time can you recall a Chinese IPO on NYSE that have done badly three or four weeks into trading?    Yup, we can't recall a name that we've covered that didn't give us some good movement.    WX, EJ, EDU, LDK, TSL, YGE (nice action yesterday), MR... all serve as good examples of the stocks we've been trading in the past and now months later.     If you include the good ones on NASD, then there's just tons more.     Since we are talking about a NYSE stock here, this instantly gives credibility to these IPOs.    It means that the company is not only profitable but also meets the stringent listing requirement.   CSR (CSCT.ob) got that finally and is now trading on NYSE.   So back to the question, why are these stocks down today despite some good action from other Chinese stocks?   Well, one possible scenario is that some traders were looking for some carry through action like STV on its third day and did not get it, hence they just bailed out.    That is just part of trading and we can live with it.   Other recent momo China stocks like YTEC, JRJC put in quiet red days as well, a pattern emerged quickly as these names underperformed those China names near or at highs.   Our game plan is establishing a good position at this level.   We aren't buying all of our shares at once and that would simply be arrogant and undisciplined.     Now does it mean that LFT is done gong down after today?   Well, we don't know that and there could be some more downside action but we think the downside is limited.     As far as STV goes, the recent low is still intact and we are looking to average some more into any more weakness as we see.      Basically folks, we are dealing with a couple of strong growth oriented Chinese stocks here and they have just been out on the market for a few days.     Rome wasn't built in a day,  so let's just give these plays some room and time to work.

Hopefully, you are running a balanced book of sorts and participating in more than just these IPO's.  Just look at the number of charts updated from our closely followed that were hitting new highs yesterday....CETV-CROX-DRYS-EDU-FSLR-JASO-SPWR-VMW-WBD and GHM.     There is always the big caps GS AMZN, AAPL to balance the book even more.

November, finally....

So, Thursday's drop is the kind of action we should've gotten yesterday?   Perhaps some will say!    In all fairness, people should focus on the sector that is growing and making profit for a change.    It's unfortunate that we live in a world where media plays such a big role on every day affairs, including the stock market.     Today, we had the spin cycle start all over again.  As we said yesterday...we have things to do and that is only trade individual stocks and mute out the talking heads.     In our opinion, whatever things need to be done by those financial institutions,  just get it done and move on.     If you don't relieve the management team that's responsible for the credit loss of their duties, and if you don't disclose in transparency what you've lost,  you are always inviting those sneaky analysts/market pundits to jump on the bandwagon to call out a doomsday scenario.    Things just aren't that bad, we think!.   Take a look at MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, RIMM... and you'd see a pattern developing.   If you are long just those names in your portfolio/fund, you'd wonder what's with this 362 pt drop?    Ok, the names above isn't the entire stock market and they represent just a specific sector, but it is a very important one!  The point is,  if we all move away from the attention of the Citi and Exxon's, there are stocks out there that can be traded higher, with sizes.  Not just traded, but made money on!

The money comes out of a troubling sector will always flow into somewhere else.    This time around, yield is getting lower so the interest bearing instrument won't look attractive.   The only place you've got left is still the equity sector.     That is why we think the market is still going higher.    As we have said before, companies like Citi or Exxon can afford to take a 8 billion dollar shortfall in earning where as companies like Apple and Rimm can't.    Lets just move on with it....We do remain bullish, just understand we are extremely selective at the same time seeking out plays that produce like CETV, GLDN, SPWR big gains in short periods of time.   We are not holding 10 positions seeking out a paltry return from each and then falling hard on big down days like today while waiting for such.  As we've said this ain't old skool market, it's 250 DJIA ...50 NASD +/- days in the hood!  Selective...the right groups/ sectors is the game.

Tomorrow we have the job report and it seems media is playing it again as if the market can go triple digit either way depending on the outcome of the report.    Our game plan is that if the report sets a negative tone in pre market, we'd most likely go aggressive on the long side in the early going.

Some stocks..

CETV,  we've had some nice runs in $100 stocks the past month from GLDN, WBD, SPWR and of course CETV an alert buy Oct 9.  CETV already had am impressive run to $119 and with Wednesday's big dip we couldn't avoid it for a spec buy into earnings as per forum note.   If it wasn't for the selloff prior to earnings , we wouldn't have moved in.   The drop gave some room for error and provided lots of upside if the report was just good as it may go back to highs just off that.    Yes, we don't recommend buying into earnings, but once in awhile the temptation is there for a few shares.   Looking at the headline today this looked like a big miss on EPS, but the market action dictates and premkt it was trading up.     So the idea is to never just judge a book by its cover or in the case of stocks by the headline number.     Let the market dictate and do some digging inside the report and/or listen to CC to get the big picture before jumping in.   We noted some aspects of the report in a forum note while everything was getting beaten up, yet CETV was still strong and only a few dollars off recent highs.  We liked the impressive revenue beat of expectations and took into consideration the EPS miss was in large part to currency translations.     A few dollars here can go pretty quick and after climbing some more it then spent a lot of time eating at 119.50 before exploding to a day high of $126.50.   Yep, thats 7 points from morning note or about 16-17 off yesterdays low.  So on a dismal day this provided some fire power to offset a lot of the gap down loss.    At this point, we're resting CETV and as with the streaky GLDN's WBD types, we'll look for another entry down very soon.

PSEM, this is a stock which came out with a pretty nice report the day a few days back.   We like this name for the fact it's in the technology sector.   It also did extremely well in Thursday's environment.    This is a fresh name that currently sports a 93 95 IBD rating.    We will be getting more aggressive in trading this one tomorrow.  Note:  NTCT is also in play for IBD and as well as SIMO potentially.

LFT, based on the trading today, it looks as though it put in a short term bottom today.    There's strong reason to believe that any weak hand who's holding this one would've been shaken out today, as evidenced by the drop around 2 o'clock.    Toward the latter half of the afternoon, it looked as though there's a bidder or two sat there and scooped up all the shares that's available which inevitably caused a rush to the upside near the end.    This isn't to say that this play is ready to bust through $30 and beyond right away but we are very encouraged by its action last couple of days, given the circumstance of this market.

STV, does anybody feel there's just a magnet at $38 for this stock?   The company announced that it's releasing earnings on Nov. 15th and we are thinking there's a high probability of an earning run prior to that.  Notice the last minute finish as it climbed and actually hit $39 before some fancy footwork a few times to get the final trade back to $38 even. 

GA, in terms of profitability, this is probably the most profitable Chinese IPO we've seen in the recent history.    This also explains its giant offering of 57.2 million shares.    We are putting this one on watchlist to trade as it did extremely well relative to the market action today.   Given the size of the offering, the action looked pretty impressive.   Just don't overdose on all these China names that are fresh.

Some notable EPS to investigate, potentially watchlist this morning..NRG, ATRO, NTLS, ATNI, SWIM, GFIG, HAIN, MR

DJIM 50, 2007

As the year winds down with this upcoming last full week of trading, we find ourselves at the crossroads here.    We are here because there's definitely two distinct possibility in front of us.    One possibility is that we roll over from the recent gain and try to test the November low and who knows what happens after that.   The other possibility is that we stop going down right about here and churn our way upwards, in an apparent and somewhat violent manner.

Lets talk about what happened in the past week first.    The action from past week is purely centered around Fed decision and we can understand how market participants feel after the decision.  They have a hangover.  In our opinion, unless Fed surprised us in the optimistic way, this market would get sold off regardless because  as we had come off such a good 2 week rally from the November low.     In terms of Fed's decision, in our opinion, they are doing the right thing even though it may not be "instant market friendly" kind of decision.     The bottom line with the Fed is that we have the Fed on our side still.    They aren't being ignorant contrary to many people's thought and they are simply being patient to help out the financial crisis.   This of course isn't being bought by everyone because many wanted that "magical potion" from Fed that can solve all of the problems once and for all.    Believe it or not, many if not most of the problems associated within the financial sector still need to be addressed and resolved by the companies involved themselves.   In other words, market needs to do the most to bail themselves out.    This is only healthy in the long run.

Too many people are too negative toward this market and too many shorts have piled onto the recent upward momentum in our opinion.    Basically, we believe that when you want to trade this market down, you definitely want to do it with good timing.   First of all, you want to go negative really hard at the beginning of the crisis and in a seasonally slow environment.    Right now, there's definitely no saying that we are at the end of the crisis but we are definitely far from the beginning of it.     People are fully aware what the problem is and measures are being put in place to correct the problem.   It does take time.    However, you don't want to go really short when things are being fixed, slowly but surely.  

So against all odds, we think the second possibility is that this market churns upwards has much better probability.    In order for this market to dive and take out the November low, you'd need some really disastrous news or the proof that we'd go into a real recession to do that.    Somehow we just don't think any of those two things is in the cards at this moment.    At least, not during the Christmas shopping season, we might add.

Earnings Earnings and Earnings!    What more confident catalyst you need other than earnings?    We have them coming up and the way this market has been setup, anything better than the lowest expectation can cause a good rally upside.   Of course, that also depends from company to company and sector to sector.     Last week we had LEH reporting and we have to say markets reaction has been very positive, despite the drop of all major indices.     In the coming week, we have GS reporting and this is considered best financial house there is.    Again, the way it sets up is that the shorts wanted to push it below $203, which is the recent low and knock it down for good.     If this stock is at $240, we say the odds of getting sold off is pretty high regardless the earning number.    In our opinion, the trade definitely calls for the upside when the number is released.     The next important report in the coming week is RIMM.    In our opinion, the recent 20% drop from the $122 area took away any bearish surprise.    It feels that shorts have pressed a bit too early going into this report on the heels of a couple of firms analysis of RIMM.    It is "unlikely" that RIMM would report a slowdown in its business and we can almost ensure a massive squeeze if it doesn't play out the way bearish camp wanted.     There are quite few other reports in the coming week which include  NKE FDX MS BSC BBY ACN JOYG GIS... quite a few different and important sectors.   This should provide us a good picture whether our economy is heading into a recession or not.     Again, we believe in our thesis that market rarely goes into a crash into an earning season.     Basically, we'd be much more nervous being short than long at this point.

Now some plays....

Solars, is it us or does it feel that most if not all solar stocks are being setup conspicuously on Friday?   Just look at some the chart setup from some of the popular names and we swear they are all setting up for a good run-up in the coming week.     By the way, they are being setup(in a very positive way) on a day that all indices dropped well over 1%.    This is simply amazing which tells us that people want to own these things at year end.   Basically we still have a bit over a week to window dress these names and it isn't a myth that the best stocks get owned at the end of the year to show them on your book.

STP/FSLR/JASO/LDK,  these are what we considered the favourite solar names to trade last week.    With the exception of LDK EPS Dec.19th, which we are still waiting for the audit report to cast away the cloud, a start today as (independent Audit out according to LDK concluded allegations incorrect), the other three are being setup superbly going into next week.  YGE, IBD #92 is also enjoying a nice trend change.

SOLF/CSIQ, these secondary solar plays are also setting up nicely, especially with SOLF.  The 9 ema has just caught up with SOLF and the next move might be big and will likely get this thing out of the recent trend.   With the entire solar sector heating up, we feel the move is very likely to be up than down.  ESLR had 2 nice days after Thursday premkt upgrade and follow up news.

Asian stocks, as seen in charts this weekend they took the week off after a 2 week recovery, following overnight numbers from HANG/SHANG they will most likely continue to be out of favor to start the week. 

LRN, 300k volume and a higher finish on day 2 of trading. If this thing had any volume Friday, it might be already looking at the high $20's.

MELI, this is the play you only can wish we'd all bought more of before Cramers mention.   On the other hand, this is no longer a strange name to traders and with its tighter float and story, anything is possible.    Basically, this one is better now with Cramers exposure than before which is largely an unknown stock to many.    The trading in this one is rather volatile so we'd continue to be inclined to buy on intraday dip and sell into strength.   It has worked beautifully in the past so there's no reason to change the strategy with this stock.  The trend is firmly to the upside since the break at $45.

RIMM, we've been buying some late in the week looking to hold up to the earning report and then play after its EPS is digested.    Again, in either case, if this company reports a good number or the market rallies, we'd be all over this beta name along with other heavy favourites like BIDU AAPL GOOG etc.

VIP, MBT..also seemingly against all odds these were green on Friday, closing around highs of day.  Another Russian stock, WBD pulled off another impressive Q with what looks like their best EPS number yet. Again as we 've seen too many times lately, nobody was interested in earnngs, this time because of CPI data headline.   Simply, you had pockets of strength to buy...the solars, the biotech, the russian stocks late in the week despite the volatility to the downside in the overall market.

Bottom line, this is the time where you have to be playing the most popular stocks.   We have seen it that the small caps aren't exactly working so you might as well join the crowd.   The more crowded it gets with a good mover, the better.    We can even see it with some of the recent story stocks from the biotech sector like RIGL SVNT BMRN etc.   You trade what others trade, when a stock is showing upside momentum that is.   Only then, you'd have a chance to outperform others.

..firmer

Despite what at times felt like a volatile day, it came on the expected diminishing holiday volume and therefore some intraday expected yo-yo swings occurred on the indices.  At the end, the action is firmer for the last 2 days and unless the down swings are on a bad headline with volume, it is best to stick it out with some positions and look forward to the XMAS shortened week and a possible rally of sorts.  A few things occuring the past few days are indicative of a whacked out market, this is best shown in the different reactions to GS strong earnings and MS's blow up.  But this could be good news.  Possibly the best thing is bad news from the financials may be getting priced in on some stocks and confidence is climbing that the firms are finally throwing everything out including the kitchen sink and coming clean.   Now only..if the market can shake the ugly numbers from BSC due out and we'll have a clearer picture as to where we are going.   It's confession time for all these boys.    We've attached the importance of earnings this week to possibly set or at least curtail the latest slide, last night Oracle reported a big quarter on all fronts. This includes getting it finally right on what is usually their very so-so Q year after year.  Is this a forward to what we may expect from more tech firms ahead or is it just a anomaly of sorts?.  It does bring a potential boost today to techs, but this might be short lived as RIMM reports AH.  Let's hope RIMM makes it back to back, other wise this Oracle number will be forgotten quickly.  In the meantime today,  FDX , BSC, ORCL can lead the way in 3 essential  areas to a very big day....let's wait and see.

LRN,  if you took your eye off K12 yesterday, you found a surprise on your next look as it probably jumped another $1 or more.  We said this might see high 20's if it just got some volume.  Guess what....it didn't need it as hit $30 and up almost 50% since we alerted the buy in the first hour of it's debut last week.  Only regret and you could blame the weak market last week is we didnt go crazy into it.             Ah..the great trader/investor motto...could've..should've..would've!.  lol..    A pullback would be great as its up 50% from its opening price, but it just might be getting discovered so its best to watch the volume as a pullback might not be so swift for your first entry or a re-entry.   We've taken most off the table and will look for the re-entry, in the meantime we dipped into APEI after it passed it's initiation day with a few nice buy targets.  You can only dip as this is trading lightly and has only a 4.5 mln float.   With all the messes out there lately, we think these educational online plays are under radar.   Actually, they are the perfect stocks for a holiday buying frenzy if the manipulators want to drive a stock or two higher next week as in years past.

WBD, another recent buy in alert after earnings. This followed what we outlined here the past week quite well, it did look right the day before at 121 in a market where nothing was looking right and it hurled $124 for another entry before ticking up to 130.  A nice run and it did hold up well, but as we've repeated over and over lately....take what a stock gives you and walk away. In this case it was more than enough.  We'll look for re-entry here as well.  The volume has not come in yet as it has in the past on runs and so we'll look for it with a break over yesterdays high levels.

MBT,  we've been spreading out our risk lately and this means using foreign ADR plays (VIP,WBD as well), in specific regions like Russia. MBT, looked very strong yesterday and it held its break of the recent channel top.  This one can move fast and we are eyeing it back to recent highs.

MA, really beaten up the last few days on the Euro ruling for months and months to come.  In the near term this should affect MA's profits as it does not cover the majority (over 90%)  of MA's volume. Ma should get back on track after all this noise is digested.

Solars,  LDK guided EPS in-line, a downgrade and what you might have is some pressure on solars.  We'd use any negative reaction spreading to take advantage of the dips in the usual suspects.  These plays are not going away by a longshot in the short term.

....no rush

The erratic trading continued most of the day as the market chewed on anything and everything.  Included was the expected Bear Stearns debacle, the FDX earnings and the ORCL strong report and a few Eco numbers.  Stir'em up and you get more of the same as far as the trading environment is concerned this week on lighter volume.  This means early firm action, a loss of momentum mid day and then a modest rally late in the day.  What you simply have is the financials finding a way to put a drag on the market and the half ass end of year rally the market wants.  You can see this loud and clear as the NASD/RUT were making new highs for the week while the DJIA/SPX lagged behind...but this should change as the natural thing to do is play catch up and close the gap, especially since RIMM will lead the NASD pack early on.  This could provide a better technical picture for the lagging indices come next week, even if the financials don't want to help out.  The premise here the past week was the importance of earnings coming out and being a catalyst.  This round of reports won't take us out of the cold in respect to the 'big picture' of where the market is going, but what it does is... give us all hope that is we will have something to look forward to in January as the official earnings season kicks off.  The reason is RIMM showed something we haven't seen in ages and that is a post earnings run, herd reaction and not the usual sell off.   Unfortunately, the report falls on quad witching Friday to cloud the picture.  Throw in the holiday trading aspect this Friday and we won't get a true feel for where RIMM is going just yet...up or down from today's action.   If you didn't flip it around AH's yesterday or are looking to sell early today, we'd then take a cautious stance today at this $120+ price.   This also holds true for other stocks as well, we are unlikely to chase new plays today unless a whole sector,  such as the Solars want to take the lead.  No Rush today, let's see how it all materializes later in the day.    In the meantime, we'll continue to trade and watch for further setups from what we have concentrated this week on and that is the WBD LRN VIP MBT etc. 

Let's hope the ORCL/RIMM reports start to get the talking heads in pre-earnings mode and have some attention turn away from the subprime mess and on to earnings.   This mess ain't going away for years and we need to move on. 

DJIM 51, 2007

The truth is, when calling for an overall market direction, technical analysis alone is just not enough.    This market has been volatile and it's been difficult calling a one way action for both the bulls and bears.    We have definitely been in a zigzagging mode during the past few weeks.  Since the late November rally, you can say we've been stuck in a pretty big trading range with some wild swings both ways.    Fortunately, we think we may be near a point where we can finally get some meaningful action going.  At this point we are getting what we wanted last week despite the market looking technically troubled at that stage.... .."...the only reasons not to abandon the market is the fact(s),  we are waiting for earnings, hopefully to spark the market, the seasonal factor to move the market up and the fact volume is low on this sell off, which also allows for opportunity for a sizeable swing(s) to the upside on the same low volume.    Let's add one more and that is the proverbial bounce possibility now. Santa has enough things in his sleigh to run over the Bears still, but he needs help from companies announcing earnings this week first.".......    We are not being the overly optimistic bulls as caution is still needed.  We are simply going to be watching events, especially earnings closely that may shape up the trading action for the next little while.     Friday's option expiration pop may seem a little suspicious,  but it can also be said that we could've very well gone the other way not really knowing the expectation the day before.    Fact is, the market rose in a very healthy percentage and now we have to deal with what the possible scenario that may lie ahead of us.

In our opinion, the market is ready to cheer for some good news.    We now know what this market is capable of when good news is put in front of it.   Basically there was couple of key events, an earning report from RIMM, a back to back with ORCL, and news of possible foreign cash infusion into MER.   Big techs had strong positive reaction and financials also traded well.     We have been saying this for a while that in order for this market to gain any upside momentum, we need companies to deliver earnings that show no slowdown in growth and no signs of recession.   Also, financials need to go up on headlines, good or bad ones, or at least stay steady on the bad stuff.   MS/ BSC trading firmed up despite the expected blow ups during the week.

The coming week is a short trading week and we have just 3 1/2 trading days to deal with.    While we can assume that many traders have taken the week off to spend time with the families, we believe some traders may be taking advantage of the light volume holiday week to push some stocks around.     We are looking at none other than the solar sector and any other stocks made the recent headline in a good way.  The ones that have made the recent 52 week high are also high on our trading list.

A rundown here with solar stocks that include STP FSLR JASO SOLF CSIQ, popular stocks include AAPL RIMM MA,  Russian stocks like MBT WBD VIP, and recent additions include RSTI LRN APEI are all on our top trading list.

We definitely had a pretty turbulent year but we can still end the year on a high note.   Stay with the best performing plays because those may be the ones to get us off to a good start in the new year. 

As we said above technical analysis is not enough, but with the DJIA and NASD closing at 13450 and 2691 respectively, we are getting more comfortable with the market.   Last week in weekend charts, we noted"..The DJIA /NASD are below our comfort levels of 13500 and 2700 respectively, but since volume is expected to whittle down in the coming days... anything is possible.  This includes big upside days that can easily get us to the levels noted and away from 13300....".   Anything was possible as Santa seems to have gased up and we should move over the above levels into the New Year.  Another possible positive technical scenario and a possible Bear stinger is the action in the small cap RUT, IWM as the down trendline from September might be busted shortly.  The Bears might have a lack of blueberries to fuel on if we cross here.  We are possibly entering the seasonal small cap outperformance of large caps into the month of January, this is probably coinciding perfectly with a break to be over the trendline noted. 

A Merry Christmas to our DJIM friends and your families!