DJIM #3, 2007

For investors the best thing about a 3 day weekend is it gives an extra day for M&A activity to kick in. This weekend surely is not disappointing in this department as lots of activity is coinciding with the markets playing with highs.   Hopefully, this gets us off on the right foot into a shortened,  but what we expect to be a busy week.   The flurry of earnings will hit us this week and hopefully we can hit back hard by buying into DJIM type earnings winners.   This is the time we/you might want to reduce sizes of holdings or get rid of stocks completely stuck in the  'hub' with no immediate flight plan.   It is best to have cash ready and not be forced to sell things off to get in on a play early.   There is always more than one opportunity to get in on a DJIM stock, but sometimes the first is just an easy gift you can close early and then look for another entry..examples might be like a SNCR move last week but one with earning or an explosive VOL off earning.    Also...don't forget to look for earning dates of your stocks!.  We have enough on hands here in Canada following US holidays, so help us out on DJIM stocks...we knew EDU had earnings Tuesday,  but we didn't know we had a holiday today till about 11 am on Friday..lol. We almost broke our 'no holding rule' into earning with EDU!.

Heading into Tuesday,  these are our top hold/ hit lists plays at this time in no order..

CCF-  Chase Corp is one of those small float (2.3mln float) Amex stocks that hides with pretty darn good earnings.   Friday it reported its profit doubled on a 26% revenue increase.  This .62c Q follows last Q's .69 on similar revenue.  We also like Fidelity owning about 50% on the the instit. shares( 400k).  If they want more, they can get ours now in the $30's!

OSIR- made a nice comeback late in the day Friday.  It seems this one besides the FDA news last week is starting to be looked at as a stem cell stock of sorts.  This explains the volatility the last 2 trading days, Osiris is also developing stem cell treatments for cancer and heart disease.  A new NCH has us looking for more in this name, but now we are looking for more volatility that made us run out of it, Thursday.   Easier to deal with volatility if you know why its there, we didn't Thursday.

CCOI- just a steady follow up Friday from its big day the day before. A NCH and a stock that is up 4.5 points in the New Year so far, almost 30% and is sure to be picked up by more eyes, but it also should consolidate sooner than later.  So be careful jumping in!.  Some of you are getting in a tad late on some plays and expect miracles too fast!.

ABM- we are satisfied with this steady performer.  A NCH to end the week, don't forget we have been on this since $21 and the big push the second day after earning.  This is heavy on institutional support,  so this pace is not unexpected.

MR,  is back in the picture... we like the move Friday and the fact it held it by the close.  We added some near the finish and think this one might be one of the better plays to start week as it has climbed nicely above its 9ema.   It could be just MR, it could also be EDU following earnings and HMIN might not be far off ( we would like to see 40+ before really taking another stab at it).  FFHL should get some play but there is that supply of ones wanting to get out overhead to consider.

AMK, might be the other top play heading into the week.  This is a small float with a nice earning story that is reporting early February.  It just looks like a typical 9ema play at this point heading into earnings.  Wish it just take out Ceramics from its name from its name!.  Can't help but think pots when you first come across it!

INFY, we like it for its EPS, its business and where its at (India).  A few targets in 60's already out following EPS. This might be a nice longer term hold.

CENX,  a play we noted off AA earning is doing well but might want a rest in the 43's. It opened just below $40 on Wednesday following AA's eps.  Again, if you want a nice aluminum stock to hold for the AA story, this is it for the longer term.

MFW,  looks to be one to pick up more of on the dips. At this point as it has some interesting intraday moves and sits close to a high.

SNCR,  seems panic has set in with some, yet its only finished day 3 off news and is only 6% or so off highs. There is two camps here,  one that was getting in $15's Tuesday AH  and then early Wednesday and the second camp that was procrastinating and moving in mid $16's and higher.  Basically first camp has been distributing and the second camp just needs to be patient through it.   If you don't believe in the story then just move on.

VOL,  momentum begets momentum and that is what happened to the upside...and to the downside.  It works both ways, kids. If you've never seen it before, you just passed MOMO 101 last week...hopefully in one piece.  Violent sell offs are nothing new in something that goes up so fast.   Now we turn to giving this a look around the 9ema area.   At this point its only a look, we like to see a reversal begin before considering a entry.

MTRX, MTRX, MTRX one fine oily day it will move.

Some notes on other stocks in Alert/Update page. 

We better get ready...

Before you know it,  half of the companies out there may have reported their earnings already.  The flow is about to start. Frankly, we feel that this mkt needs to kick a gear higher to really start this earning season.   What we mean is that we want to see more volume and more volatility!    Good earnings get bid up and bad earnings get dumped kind of volatility.    When things are chaotic, there's always opportunity.    We don't want to speculate which sector or individual company is going to shine this quarter, but we have to keep a sharp eye out for outstanding report.    

Today's action from DJIM land is surprisingly quite good given the weakness in technology sector.     Of course, we are only concerned about individual action here and we'll let the talking heads discuss the theoretical side of things.    Most of the DJIM stocks enjoyed some very nice gains and here is a run down..

MFW, financial companies, especially the little ones like this definitely can trade on their own.  Come looking back, an entry point at $28 is not that bad of a deal.    We've been actively trading this one last couple of days .

AMK, as mentioned last night, we thought this had the best early chance this week alon,g with MR.  It didn't disappoint with a nice day.

MR, so it looked like it had a seller or two mid way through the day as it reached highs.  This one had above average volume today and we'd be watching it closely next couple of days to see if it has the juice to take out the old high and start a new leg.

HMIN, it looked like it almost had some steam to break out but only to come back some in the afternoon.    It's having a pretty stubborn consolidation so far.    Again, we are not eager to chase potential breakout but once it gets some push under some heavy volume, we'd chase and alert everyone at the same time.

GLDN, new closing high, there's not much else to be said about this one.   In fact, this is definitely the best Russian stock on our list right now.

CCF, slow down Jose.   To be honest, we actually aren't comfortable for it to trade into the $32s this early.  It was here for all high 27's/low 28's to snap up last trading afternoon.  We definitely want to see some base building here.   Let everyone catch some breath and accumulate some position.

AXR, though we did not actively participate in this most recent run-up, this one should always be on anyone's top trading list and its good readers have not forgotten this $90's DJIM.  Its been up in charts all along, so there's really no excuse to at least have admired this move..lol.   Honestly, it's not easy to chase a 30 pt move and we just have to take it as is.  If you played some, congrats to you but if not, no big deal as opportunities will come.   It is a little stretched at his point so we aren't looking to do anything here.

Some other stocks on our list that closed well include, GRC OPTM HRT OMRI.    One last note on EDU and future earnings, earning dates are to be played, not to be held through.  We didn't say anything cause there was nothing impressive about the report. Last report which was sensational sold off, so this one is no surprise.  Still, it's pretty good, it''s just the market doesn't care.  CHDX, this one was in play a month or two ago and today it broke out apparently on good volume.   Keep an eye on this one for potential follow through or not, it's not the most consistent day to day performer.  Another is a big DJIM flyer from last quarter, CETV which put in a NCH today on a gap. Not sure what the beef is here today! . Good stocks just grind it out over time and before you know it...boom...a NCH

cheers,

DJIM #4, 2007

We can't block out all the noise, all the negative noise hitting the wires, the bobble heads on CNBC as its venom is in front of you on your screens...the abundance of red, 3 out of 4 days!.  But it is possible to turn off the excess, the actual stuff making the noise...click..it's off!!.   If you want to dwell on the macro, we can refer you to 1000 places that will discuss the possibilities till they and you are blue in the face.   It is so easy to get involved in the hype, even if it is reality in many respects and get a tad depressed and sit on your hands.    You could fall into this trap and sit ideal or you can jump a bubbly, new opportunity to make some mo'.    DJIM is ' stock picking',  it is not to evaluate a macro situation and decide to take a position in a stock that could be affected by the goings on 3 months from today and make you 10% down the road...Why should we wait 3 months, a year for a 10% gain when the possibility to make that much in a day or two is granted almost every day....This is especially true during earnings season!....No matter what the 'big boys'..INTC, IBM's are telling for the future....Small caps for the most part are only telling you what they did for the past 3 months with no outlook.  This gives us all of us an opportunity to collect points, here and now on the PAST..in most cases it's easy money as it tends to bring in momentum and an excellent trading environment.   But if you're shacked away, clinging to stocks stuck at the 'hub' with no immediate flight plan...well, then you are also missing opportunity after opportunity if you do not have excess cash to use.    Procrastination... is something best left in bed or on the potty in the morning,  if you're going to trade successfully.   The ability to differentiate between stocks and understanding what has the most potential to move out of the gate the fastest is so important in our and your success.   You have seen what momo can do recently...good and bad as in VOL.   If you do not recognize momo and jump in day 1 or 2 and procrastinate till day 4, you are left at the summit.  Bet there are more waiting for a move from these prices than ones who got in the first move of a max. of 12-13 points from DJIM time on it.   Basically, those admired the move from a distance so much that they think it can be replicated once they're ready days later.    Why let it slip through your fingers the first time and be left hoping for sloppy seconds!.  To a lesser extend, this holds true for a USAP and it's potential following earning last week.  Like CENX (if you want some aluminum in your diet),  if you want a steel play with a connection to Boeing etc there is not a better longer term hold in this sector.  They are a little volatile but also give a better bang for the buck.  Again, we are not here to make predictions on commodities or anything else...so we are here with the flow.  Right now, its a little positive.

USAP, you saw this stock here before most likely.  It had stellar earnings last Q and this Q beat all expectations handily even if you take the nickel pricing that added about 10c to the EPS.  The 97c was 80% growth and guidance is nothing to sneeze at either.  How to differentiate a stock and its potential for a fast move.  Compare a stock like VE with a 200mln float and USAP with a tidy 4.2mln and 80% instit ownership.  This smells like a possibility of a fast move and volatility, so if you want to the chance of a 3-4 5pt move, stop procrastinating if the signs are there...VOLUME is always one... Why not start with a starter like we did below $37 and then add as you see the momo come.   So, if you watched like many watched VOL, Monday might not be the best time to enter but on the other hand you might want to take advantage of the profit taking end of day and price decrease as a new start.   Again, we are not here to figure out and suggest if a pullback is sufficient for you to enter...our gig is to introduce you to a potential move and in this case tell you our entry.   Now is where you might want to use charts in your decision process.  Of course, we took some points off the table during the nice run, we all should heading into a weekend with a fast gift when its given.  There is nothing not to like here,  but it does not mean you don't take the points.  You're in the market to make money and nothing else.   We will follow closely to take back a full position.

VNDA, here was another opportunity in a stock we know from our own experience the power it can generate.  We know its bloodline, we know this can be that thoroughbred sprinter.  The history of a stock is simply the chart, so if you missed the DJIM run before... a quick glance at the chart and the previous 2 moves should have made you to put this on top of your trading list to watch after our mention of the funny biz in the 350k lot at highs(Wednesday), the snap back action to highs Thursday was another clue to something fishy, yet smelling good.    An offering at the highs of a stock is always positive, it is not the offering with no price that we are seeing from MR and EDU that make the investor apprehensive or even scared that it will be quite lower and also cause dilution.  In a up and coming biotech with at least 2 promising drugs,  dilution is the last thing on anyone's mind.  VNDA will have to partner with a major as they said again Friday, we feel  this should continue to keep the stock steady in anticipation of the inevitable event of a hook up with a major.   What has always been impressive about VNDA is its ability to hold gains after the initial big run.  The finish was strong as it pressed the days highs. We noted our intraday sell and the potential to pick it up back with a break of the days high.  We ran out of minutes to see if this occurs on Friday and will take it minute by minute Monday to see if we add back what we sold.  Remember, we fear the 'negative' news that might come overnight in a biotech,  so use caution and only sleep with what won't break you.  Look at it this way, you could have played VNDA 3-5 days so far and slept fine in between the big days.

What else for the week ahead?.

9EMA..you can make a list off the charts posted of the stocks below this short term support line.  Starting with the Chinese stocks like EDU MR and others like DLB and know what we have no interest in now.  No need to list them all.  Then look at those stepping above this point like the Russian telcos ROS VIP MBT to put back on your potential trading list. Just watchin now more closely.

OIL, really hate to turn to ALY, BTJ if need be, but they do still offer nice trade potential.  MTRX has been incredible through the massacre and considering we have held some through, we'd definitely like to see it move with any sector move.  This is the safer bet and one you can hold through the night.

ATNI was one of those HUB stocks as it did nothing but wait for a flight plan after the initial  BIG run!. It got grounded!. We discussed these tired plays may be a waste of cash at their recent high levels.  Well,  ATNI finally collapsed late last week, but might be a buy opportunity again at 50 day.  More than any other reason is ATNI made it to 2 publications as a 'top' small cap (motley and street.com), Friday.  Just a hunch, if the market is good.

MFW AMK MEND, 3 buys we have listed here on the Journal in 2007, have been steady performers yet do provide some swings and dips to buy before continuing back to highs.  We continue to hold small.. adding/subtracting as we go along depending on the trend.  Trying to catch a bigger move here.  CCOI is another that seems to have staying power, best to look at it again if it comes to highs as 9ema area is still a possibility here.    CCF, a one dollar move in a stock like this is .20 cents on another, so take that into consideration when dealing with thinsters and be prepared to stick it out if you buy these types.  The earnings are not going away, even though the buyers are not lining up last week.  Maybe a few will at the 9ema area.

VE, moved a $1 after our alert on a hunch it might move because of news relating the Suez. Seeing the float, you know this won't be a quick mover. If the news is not substantial and doesn't put the stock in a uptrend soon, we will release that starter position.  A break of $70 is what we would like to see, if it doesn't come soon...we'll say good-bye.

EBS, introducing this IPO to consider for a potential trade tomorrow or one to keep on radar for future events.  This is a recent IPO that is profitable for a biotech, it provides an anthrax vaccine contract for the stockpile .   It moved late Friday and we want to see if there's any follow through or any news.  The OS is 80% is controlled by one big head in the company.  There is not much left for you and us, so there is potential for more moves.  We could be at the beginning of a move, or we could be at the end of a short one.  If we take a starter position early and it turns against us, we won't let it go too far in the red before selling.   

Look at IPGP, as an example of what could be a 2 day run and the potential to get in too late as some did here in the 27's,  instead of buying the 25's and the potential break we spoke of before and after it started to move.

What can we learn from today?..

Basically, on a day like today, we have to identify clearly what's working and what's not working.    So lets start with what's working.    The two domestic stocks that stand out the most are the two that just reported great earnings.  Of course, we are referring to CCF and USAP.   In our opinion those two had the best earning report, so far in the earning season, among the small caps.   But then again, the earning season for small caps stretches a couple of months and we are pretty much still at the beginning of it.    So the point is that it still all comes down to earnings.   Plays that are great earning driven would have a much better chance to withstand the kind of market today.   Sometimes, as it's prove, they would even go as far as going the opposite direction of this market and shine.     So what else is working today?  DJIM Foreign stocks!    Yup, that's right, and we don't even have to point them out.     So what's not working then?   Just about everything else.     The market was quite the red, but if you have a screen of DJIM stocks...it was pretty green today.   What's good about today's action is that it's very easy and obvious to pick the good ones from the bad ones.    When you can easily identify the winning stocks, then you can choose the setup that you are most comfortable with, or perhaps the safest setup to enter for a trade or two.     Let's go over a few stocks here...

CCF,  we made it very clear on day one that we really like its earning report.  In fact, we think the combination of its earning and its market cap gives this play a valuation mismatch.    Of course, we think it should be worth a lot more than what's currently trading at.    Since we don't have a crystal ball, we still can not just rely and act on our beliefs alone but rather we have to focus more on the action.   The action of a stock behaviour has to confirm our belief before we can truly comfortably act it out the way we wanted.    Once we have identified such play, then it's up to your trading instinct to make the best out of it.    In this case, it's clear that we all should be adding last couple of days.    Last night, we noted the line up might form in 9 ema area, today it did with a nice volume stick.   With 2.33 million in float, we think it doesn't take many 80k to 90k volume "up" day to give this one a reasonable valuation.   The trend is definitely up and we are playing aggressively on any dips.     

USAP, this is another low floater which perhaps has a valuation mismatch.   Today's advance does not surprise us and we are also playing aggressively on the dip camp.    Keep in mind, no stocks go up forever and we are less inclined to chase in this weak market environment unless the stock is fresh out of a breakout.    What we meant is that compare USAP to CCF, USAP is a bit stretched at this point and we are sure there willl be opportunities to add at a good price.  The sell off Friday provided such this morning for many.  Well if it goes up another few points from this point without stopping, we won't be upset either with our current position.   The point is, no need to be greedy when the mkt is seemingly in a bad mood right now.

AMK, we alerted this one late in the day b/c we feel this one is setting up nicely.   With less than two week before the earning date, we feel this one has a chance to get a pre-earning run-up going.    We have seen what this stock is capable of and we are willing to give it a chase here.

IPGP, we've talked about this stock being discovered, today was the start you could say as the brokers came out with their initiations on it. Some big names behind this IPO, one of them MER gave a BUY rating as well.  We're still out but we are watching. 

Resiliency

There's really no need to talk about the overall market today.   Dow notched a new high and Naz followed with an impressive gain.    We are not going to delve into why and how of the overall market behaviour.    As a trader, you cannot battle against the overall market trend.   Rather, you can use the market sentiment to gauge the behaviour of individual stocks.    We couldn't help but noticing that across the DJIM land,  most if not all of the stocks on our watch list ended up in the green.   This is actually not rare considering how the market performed today.   What we find most encouraging is to see the resiliency of some of our stocks,they performed well on a good day like today but also just as well last few days when market wasn't as "hongy dorry"!     We have quite a few stocks making new 52 week highs and some making fresh break outs.    This is definitely a sign of a good market here, but we know this can change on a dime.  Here are some stocks that we thought are worth noting...

VIP MBT, incredible strength for the comrades the past 3 days..7 to 9 points on each.  The short term RSI is almost out of this world and we think this is unsustainable for a 4th day.  We sold most and will likely finish doing so early on tomorrow. These two charts are a great study on a breakout on earnings, the pull-back and then the higher high breakout we just witnessed.

AMK, volume has been a little slow last couple of days so the momentum is not as strong as we would liked.   The price action however, is pointing to the right direction and we are still sticking with our thesis for a pre earning runup.

CCF, we really like this one's steadiness and basically are not overplaying it.   

USAP, is holding steady after earning and is using the strength of the steels in holding these levels.

CCOI, the leading secs today were the internet related issues, couple this with a Lehman upgrade on another Clec and Merriman's bullish comments on the CLECS and CCOI  put the shelf offering from last night to the side.  See the chart for the possible break and/or resistance point.  As per our update/alert, we added and will take the chance this breaks out with some pop soon.

EBS, not a bad day for the other biotech in DJIM land introduced this weekend.  Volume speaks volumes today, you could say. Oh yeah and VNDA, just keeps inching higher..

HMIN, as if we are tired of seeing this play popping up on this journal. lol    This one again broke out today and closed at a triple high(intraday high, 52 week high and all time high).   This combination coupled with a good market and a strong base it's had usually indicates a very bullish trend.   But of course, we have been tricked by this one before so we will keep a close on it tomorrow for any sign of weakness.  One thing to watch out for is the China stocks doing offerings, it seems the price starts to bounce to old highs and then the news hits. Sneaky.

Bulls, Bears on a dime..

So the market pulled back and gave up pretty much all of the gains it had from yesterday.  It changed on that dime!   We didn't want to be Rah -Rah yesterday, we don't want to be Blah -Blah today.  The question we have is, did we give up all of our gains from yesterday?   Hardly!   Even if you are reckless on a day like today, you still wouldn't have that bad of a day, as long as you traded DJIM stocks.    The point is, don't get caught up with this battle of bulls and bears.   We really don't need to be concerned about the interest rates at this point.    We really don't want to be the casualties at the expense of the institutions' inability to making up their minds.    What we really mean is that since none of us have billions or even multi millions to trade, we should not trade as if we are the market movers and shakers.   They are the Bulls and Bears and we are the Mice coming out for chunks of cheese!.  As long as we stay selective and take profits more often than not, we should all stay intact in this volatility and make some money!  What we should be doing instead is to be smart and be alert, and keep an eye on what stocks are the casualties of the market weakness and what stocks are performing irrelevant of the market action.

Our conclusion for the last few days is that we HAVE TO stick to earning plays, and more recent the better.    If you look at all the DJIM stocks that were green today, most of those are the ones that just recently came out with strong earning report or the ones that came out with good reports today.     Yes, it may just be that simple but it takes lots of discipline to stick to the same winning strategy.  There are hundreds of reports coming out now with stocks beating estimates, raising guidance...we are trying to pick out the ones we think have potential even after a 10% move.   Many times, we are simply trying to challenge ourselves as a trader,  but more importantly, we should be challenging ourselves to stick to a winning trading strategy.    Here's the rundown..

USAP, despite the pullback, we thought today's a good day to add some to our positions.   From previous journals, we've noted that for a couple of days USAP has extended itself and pullback might be inevitable and today we got our wish.   In fact, if it's gonna pullback, we are glad that it pulled back today, as opposed to yesterday.   Why?   It's natural that an extended stock pulls back on a bad index day.   Volume is relatively light and action is reasonable.   We added some back.

CCF,  couple of days ago, we noted that CCF had a better setup than USAP.   It showed everyone that point today.  Market is down big and this stock held up really well and notched a new closing high.   Even though the gain is so tiny, but it's still impressive that it did on a day where the major indices took a tumble ..did we mention a new 52 week high? lol

EBS/VNDA, these two had similar action to USAP and their extended action just could not keep up when the indices getting trounced.  But, before they backed up nice new highs were reached especially on EBS to 17.75.  We are not in a rush to buy back but will wait until they stabilize before re-entering.  If you recall, we exited a portion of VNDA and then returned as recent highs of $30.30's were reached, at this point we alerted to buying back in.  This is similar to what we want from here.  We turned our attention to picking up some fresh EPS stocks instead.

HMIN, ok so the close was not as encouraging as expected.  You've heard that before and seen this stock at work ; lately, so this action is nothing new to any of us...good or bad market.  The intraday move is enough for anyone to make a point or more though.   Basically, we have learned our lessons way too many times with this one.   If there's gain, we'd take it.   Tomorrow is another and different day.  Pullback on this one is just way too common.

RESP VARI,  again some of you may have remembered us saying this phrase from before, "the actual earning report of a company is one thing, more importantly it's the reaction of an earning report is what we care the most"!   We like the action and we followed steps with many others.   Based on the reaction, we assume that there's plenty of ppl who liked their reports.    One thing we've learned from our early trading career is that we just can not disagree with the collective force of ppl, right or wrong.

TRCR, we are definitely putting this one back to the top of our trading list again.    So there's this visibility problem, right?   Well, the problem is that the visibility issue won't be a problem for us next few days or weeks.     We are sure that when the visibility issue comes into play come this summer Q2/Q3, we probably won't even remember what this company does anymore or this Q4.   Again, following the stock action here and we think this one will get its playing time for the next little while.  Yesterday,  we addressed this in the forum on a post regarding TRCR.   Basically the earning will give the stock a base, a new base and traders will play off it..its cheap and float is small.  The CEO also said this Q is a "quantum leap" for the company and Q2/Q3 is seasonally slower, so its about now!!.. The sell off yesterday was the briefingcom chasers, first chasing the juicy plug and then the CC follow up printed...really.. they don't really read..what this created was a possible 2 trades, one yesterday and another today for some nice change. Chances are better this comes to recent highs than the lows printed the last few days.

Again, the key for us is to follow the individual action, not the market action.   You may end up with a basket of funky names or wacky business' on your watchlist, but the bottom line is that they NEED to perform, and that's the only thing we all should care about.

DJIM #5 2007

Well, it's been a pretty decent earning week for us and opportunities were there to grab.    That is, if you didn't get distracted by the index action.    During the earning season,  it's rare for the market to pullback significantly since there are always funds/institutions waiting for their favourite stocks to report.   At the end of an earning season, however, things may be different as there aren't that many things to look forward to for another three months.   By then, interest rate talk, economic number and as well as the seasonality will be big factors dictating the market movement.  Still, there are small caps that periodically surprise with the timing of their releases, so it's almost earning season 12 months a year for us.     Well, that's how we've been viewing things.   

During the earning season, the only thing in our opinion that should be dominating your trade/watch list are the earning plays.    Basically keep an eye on those that have had good potential of releasing strong earning and keep a tag on those unfamiliar names that just reported strong earnings.   Pretty soon, your watchlist will expand from a couple of dozen to literally few dozen stocks.     Again, the point of having this kind of watchlist is to simply making trading decisions easy for you.   Basically, when you have a list full of strong earning stocks, it's just a matter of picking the ones with the best momentum, best charts, best float and best sector.   Fortunately, we are here to give everyone a heads up on what we think are the best so we can all be on the same page and trade the most out of those potential winners.

Here are some of the stocks of interest from past week....

HRBN, so why start off with this BB stock you ask?   Simply put, going toward the end of Friday, this one had the best momentum.    We alerted on the fact that it's going to be listed on Naz on Jan. 31th and given the quick glance of its fundamental and float, we thought it has a very good shot to make some good gains at $10.   Well, an hour later Briefing.com picked it up and we hope some of you have picked up in the low 10s.  We said the yahoo's could spread the story quickly, that's why we wanted to get this out to you first.    Volume on Friday is still a tiny 200k and given the fever Chinese stocks have been getting lately, we think this one is far from being discovered.   Float is 5 mill and co. is profitable for a few quarters in a row.    Not much else you can ask for.    We think it should get some more upside action before and after the Nasdaq listing.

USAP, buy the dips!   This strategy works the best with strong earning play.   If you missed the first run from 39 to 43, getting in at the low 40 is not a bad thing.   We added some on Thursday and now the stock looks better than before.    It showed that there's interest and support when the stock dips.  

CCF,  maybe this one doesn't have the kind of crazy momentum of some of the Chinese stocks but we just like the way it is.   The point is, this is the kind of stock where you don't have to check every single tick and knowing that it'll probably make new high sooner or later.

HMIN, we think this one is definitely getting more and more interest everyday.   The IBD profile we noted Friday before the bell sure helped the cause.  It's no longer a simple Chinese play anymore, it might be an Olympic play as well as IBD noted.    As long as the major trend line does not get violated, we'd buy some on the dips and sell some on strength.    If you have a fast trigger, you can definitely buy on a breakout and make a point or two that way.   This one is still very much in play.

TRCR, we think we have written enough on this one and we are keeping a very close eye on this one.   We'd like to add some in the low 6s but if it doesn't come down, we'd be just as happy adding some on strength.

VARI RESP VTRU ENR,  how we play these earning plays are simple.  We get a starter position in each one and add to the strongest one.   If one position lags, cut it lose and add the funds to the stronger ones.   This actually remind us of a race where you get to bet on all of the horses.  The only difference is that it's rare you lose on any horse since they are all winners to begin with.  Here, we are playing with more institutional money and sometimes the trend is easiest to pick up.  VTRU, besides the EPS number it is also a speculative takeover target, for you home gamers of the dating scene they are of the Lavalife site and others.  lol. $50 are the digits being thrown around.

NWK, this was a play on pre-announced earnings. Usually, they sell off once the numbers are publically released but for whatever reason this one keeps staying strong and the action just seems right.   We're set up here and looking to add more on a break.  It got painted down at the close and some sellers wanted to get out for the weekend, so we'll see what it does early tomorrow before proceeding further.

CCOI, our last alert on it said there were some favorable ramblings on the CLEC sec including TWTC.  TWTC had a very nice Friday and we are looking for more out of CCOI on TWTC heels.

ABM, is back in the picture. One look at the chart shows we could be looking at another test of the highs and a further break.

IPGP, this is looking better on the chart with a close over $26 and as posted by a member in the forum this company is starting to get recognized for its growth earning potential. This is the discovery we talked about...slowly happening.

Bascially in breaking down what we have is quite simple.  Our sector play in Aluminum, we have CENX that is up 5 pts since we touched on the subject on AA's earning.  We have USAP, as our steel play with earning.  So you want to keep an eye on the whole sec action with these.  On the cheap speculative trading side, we have a TRCR and HRBN.  There are new earning plays like RESP, VTRU, ENR to test out and hopefully see them become long term plays.  And there is the old reliable DJIM recycling program working with the HMIN, CCOI's of the trading world.

Just a note... the market is a complex dynamic with uncertainity at every turn.  What we do here is trade on emotion, mostly what our gut(s) is telling us might work or not and we react to it.   We trade when and what we feel gives us the best probability at a successful trade, we don't expect you to have this gut as for many of you its not your full time gig...so leave that to us and worry only about proper risk management of your money.  You don't have to be a rocket scientist to see which direction our selections go first,  if anything work on your timing so you can get the most out of a stock.

Big Day!

In our opinion, today is one of the biggest days if not the biggest day for us so far in 2007.    It was almost near perfect except for a couple of stocks but overall effect is very positive.    Index seemed to be going much more wild than most of the stocks on our watchlist but we think it's understandable given the cross currents of a lot of news out there.   Of course, what we care the most at the end are how some of the stocks in our portfolio are doing today.  We will proudly take this day considering there are many a guru and many a forums complaining about the market and the little opportunities for a good trade... A few things for tonight...

HRBN, big volume but a slight disappointing close.   Does that mean this play is completely over?   Far from it!  We think the volume today squarely put this one in the "in play" category.   So why did it not go up with this big volume you ask?   Simple, in terms of percentage, some early birds that supposed to have bought the "Naz Listing Leak" early may be cashing out and maybe some of you after an alert run from just over $10 to over $13 overnight.   We are going to be adding some on pull backs.   Keep in mind, this thing still trades on BB exchange and the market maker there may not be most friendly.   Hopefully when it gets onto the Naz Global Market, some institutions would step in and give it some orderly support. 

CCF,  boy things can turn quickly on this one.   The only disappointing thing is that this one has to shaken out on a day where most of the other DJIM stocks were having a very good day.    Nothing has changed on this one and the battle is close to the 9 ema.   Next couple of days will be the key to see which way it wants to lean.   At this point, we wouldn't be adding as the sell off volume seems a little more excessive and we'd give it a couple of days to show us which way WE ought to be leaning.  The earning did not change overnight, remember that!.  Don't forget how far this one has come in a short period of time and take these moves in stride.  Recently, we said 'she's a bouncin' and it went from 29 to 33's, so be patient.  There is plenty out there!

USAP, perhaps today is the day this stock is showing us that it should be the #1 holder in our portfolio.   One thing is for sure, this stock is definitely getting the kind of exposure CCF lacks.    Even though the trading can be just as volatile, but at least the support is there to push it back up.  We like this one and would add lightly on break outs and aggressively on pull backs.    By the way, when we say adding on a pullback does not necessarily mean we'd be adding on pull backs that have excessive volume that takes out meaningful moving averages, like CCF did today!.  Hopefully, the HMIN move Friday was fresh on your minds as you read the forum blurb on USAP this morning.

TRCR, it felt like it was just a matter of time.  That thought was just echoing behind our heads as we were just talking about it a couple of days ago.   Does today qualify as a breakout?  Hell yeah!  Did we add some on the breakout?  Absolutely.    We'll see how high the momentum takes this stock to. The volume was about 75K when we alerted to a watch for the $6.75/6.80, a 10minute volume chart shows the love it started to receive at those prices as we were hoping for.

MEND CHDX both of these broke out today but both didn't close near the high so we'll group them together.   Remember, CHDX is the volatile beast, so be careful with it.  MEND received a price tgt increase( see forum from premkt)

VTRU VE NWK HMIN ABM MFW ENR RESP ,  we have to say all these behaved quite well given the wild range we had today with the index.  This is a night we have to say the charts speak louder than anything we can say, so we will keeep it short.  There is a collage up of the big day players up in charts.

If you are spread out in a few of these names, hopefully you spread out your profit taking.  As much as we added here and there, we took some off as well in different names.

Fed Day

This is one of those days where we wish we were institutions rather than retail investors.  Not!   Up until the Fed decision, the market seemed like it was stuck in mud.   There was hardly any action and most of the entertainment was provided by the special guest on the NYSE trading floor.   We had to double up on the amount of coffee we drink just to get to the 2:15 p.m. mark.   Then it felt like there's a jolt of energy injected into the market and everything becomes alive again.   You don't think the guest of honor would address Wall Street and then have FOMC ruin the day?.      Let's just say the stars were lined up ...Bush...Bernanke and not accidently.

Speaking of jolt, the Chinese market was rocked the night before and it's definitely spilling over to all of the flavours here in North America.   The familiar ones we cover all suffered to one degree or another.    However, we see little correlation between the market over there and the Chinese stocks trade here as most of them only trade on North American market.   Still, we prefer to see a trend change here.  We'll see soon enough if this is mere a distraction and provide people here some opportunities to add to the strong ones.

TGX, this one had the best follow through from all of the stocks yesterday.   Sometimes you just simply have to be surprised by the kind of stocks that are performing in your portfolio.

VARI, this is one of the earning play that obviously enjoyed the Fed day more than the others.  Action speaks louder than words and we added during its strong performance today.

CHRW, this is a new one we are throwing into watchlist as this is the rare earning reaction for a big(relative) co.   Volume is huge and stock finished near the high.  Whatever the institution is seeing in this thing, we think there's going to be more to come.

CNS, we think this one is finally ready after excellent earnings to move forward.  We picked some up near of end of day

ABM MFW, these two DJIM's just keep serving up excellent days.

CCF is turning slowly...as we said... patience these earnings are not going away.

The market got a late day upgrade,  if we are to continue this longer term uptrend there is no better place we'd rather be than in strong EPS stocks. 

SWIR, we added a few times AH, the earnings are quite good and considering SWIR was just 15+ getting a position in the high $15.60-80's is a treat.  Maybe we should listen to the CC to find out why this didn't trade higher, but instead we'll let the action in the morning dictate what we do.  We think we might see a 5++mln volume day on these numbers, if that happens the share price will be quite higher intraday.

Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.09 per share, $0.02 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.07; revenues rose 81.8% year/year to $68.3 mln vs the $66.3 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for Q1, sees EPS of $0.12 vs. $0.08 consensus; sees Q1 revs of $82 mln vs. $65.83 mln consensus. Co states. "Based on strong bookings, we have solid visibility on Q1 2007 revenue. This guidance also includes a sizeable increase in operating expenses related to new product launches and major trade show activity expected

Post Fed Day

Normally, or many times in the past, the "Post Fed Day" has not always been kind to the market.   This time the market definitely had a change of heart.    When it comes to DJIM stocks, we actually had a much better afternoon than in the morning.   Many of the stocks we are familiar with just simply strengthened up toward the end and some of them had pretty good closing actually.   We'll pick out a few and highlight them...

CCF, perhaps this one is the most surprising one out of the bunch.   It was very ironic that only a couple of days ago that we were worried about its above volume sell off.   Again, we pointed out that we'd give it a couple of days to let it show us which way it wants to lean.   Volume today isn't spectacular but we think it has potential.   We added back some shrs today and no doubt also contributed to some of the rise today.   Nonetheless a new closing high is a new closing high.    What this does is that it actually puts this one back to our top watchlist and we'll again be adding aggressively.   The conclusion is, let the stock show you how strong it is before making up your mind of adding/chasing.   There's no need to be overly optimistic on "the best play" if the action seems uncertain.   If uncertainty occurs, reduce position and sit on the sideline with a little exposure.   Once the danger is over and the trend is clear, then jump back in.    Actually, this is more like the strategy for surviving in the jungle. lol   But in all honesty, trading the market is like surviving in the jungle.  There's really nobody else to look after you other than yourself.   Making kills (plays) just don't come easy when you got so much competition out there.

MFW, it's been up three days in a row now since our alerts on it Monday and of course the little alarm might tick off for a possible pause in this latest runup.    It doesn't mean that we have to go all out and sell it out.   Just be prepared for reversal and when it happens, don't be hesitant to reduce.  Recently after our initial buy in, MFW provided one quick trip down and that has turned out to be one of the best trades recently for us adding in the $26's.

SILC, ok so this one sat there for a couple of days and today broke out on pretty good volume.  There's not much to say other than the fact we added some toward the end.   Why at the end you ask?    If a breakout does not hold till the end, then it may be a fake one and we simply hate any kind of fake break outs.

HRBN, what to expect tomorrow?   Ummm, there's a chance it may follow through and start some momentum.   We are keeping our fingers crossed and if there's any sign of momentum picking up, we'd be adding aggressively.   We are watching it very closely.

TGX, time to let some go today.   We all had a chance after alert at $4, 20+% in 2 days is just too good to ignore.    We reduced most and looking to add on pullbacks.  BT noted in forum some technical analysis on it today.

A note on tech earnings on the Nasdaq, a definite theme has developed that started with AAPL, a few names early this week and then GOOG today.  You can put SWIR in this bunch of sell offs off excellent results.  Last night, we talked of the slows action in AH in the 15's and up only 10% on SWIR..."Maybe we should listen to the CC to find out why this didn't trade higher, but instead we'll let the action in the morning dictate what we do".  The action early showed SWIR had no chance and why.  Simply these techs are selling off the stellar earning news.   As we always say and said last night, wait for the market to dictate what you should do on a earning reaction.  If you do take a position early make sure its a starter, something you can rid of without much of a loss quickly.   At this point, we are carrying between 10-15 positions on any given day and blowing out a small starter position as in SWIR from AH is nothing when you have positive action in so many DJIM stocks.  Cut the laggards and those behaving badly.  If you are one to carry 2-3 positions at a time, you definitely should not be going large into earnings plays until the market shows you what it thinks.   It tells you pretty fast as with GOOG and SWIR last night and today.  We are looking at DLB's earning with all this in mind tomorrow despite how attractive it looked on paper first.

Other stocks showing strength, some more than others.. include ENR ABM GLDN VARI CNS OEH NWK FSYS ALB CENX TRCR ... so most of them are eps plays and all of them you've seen at DJIM over the past 5 months.

DJIM #6 2007

We thought we'd get this out today while we're all in a sober state before Sunday's game..

Now that we are in February,  we'll save you from listening more about USAP CCF MFW our core of big winners in January.  Well, maybe for a few days only!.   Nothing has changed since the last write ups, so glance back if needed.  Instead on Super Bowl weekend,  we'll discuss some new and some neglected DJIM names...

CNS, this asset management co' has taken over our money after the demise of GROW.  We've been in and out before recent earning and have been waiting for a signal to enter after EPS.  The day came on FED Wednesday (Journal) as it attacked the congestion in the low 48's seen after earning.  A quiet Thursday and then a nice move Friday.  We like, We like as a core hold.

ALGN a buy in alert low 16's off earning that knocked out estimates has playing ping pong between $16 and $17. We've never traded this before and are closely watching trying to figure it out.  As of Friday, we think there is a possibility of some action if it gets just a little bit higher. BT has confirmed this with a chart look as well.   If we don't get a move early in the week, we'll cut out if we don't see some momo established again.

AVZA an alert at the bell Friday that we soon bought into.  We're not so thrilled with techs but a turnaround is seen here with this profitable Q and guidance equal to this Q.   A nice pop from 5.50 to 6.50 before tailing off.  We traded some of AVZA and kept some to see if we can make it 4 for 4 on cheapies following on the footsteps of NWK, TRCR TXG!.  Basically, we are using the same strategy on all of these.  Best to see the latest on the TRCR, TXG's first days.

SILC, is an Israeli tech just small enough to avoid the institution rush to sell off after earning.  We are very familiar with SILC having traded it from the 6's and were in no hurray to pick up till Thursday buy in alert end of day.  This company is what you call a comeback story,  the founder brought in a top manager and marketing exec.. Yep..the stock was less than half a buck ...4 or 5 years ago with a market cap less than a million, now its probably over 100mln.  They reported a .20c Q/.49c on the year.  Maybe this becomes an IBD contender?.

T'N'T, talk about cheap thrills'!.... we have to group these cheap DJIM winners together.  First there was NWK we started in the 6's and alerted last Friday before this 10% week.......then there was TRCR and last week a spec buy in alert at $4 of TGX.  We noted Thursday on TGX and taking profits with a quick 20% in a week,  we did the same on TRCR again Friday which we started at $6'ish and alerted again to look for action in $6.70's last week.    We are looking at these day to day now with bigger pieces being sold.  There is nothing wrong on the fundamental side but we feel they are getting a bit extended short term.  A nice pullback or two, we wouldn't mind in a few of these after the 20-40% moves.

We got the cheap cornered,  but what we really like most is the classy ones to hold tight.  They are expensive in many a traders eyes as some just can't see past a under $10 stock.   We love these types.  We bought the starters in ENR at 83's, the VARI 52's, the VTRU $43's and have been adding along the way.   These have produced nice charts since entry and returns of 3-8% between them quietly.  We 've sold most of the VTRU the last few days after 4pts in 7/8 trading days but we'll look to buy back in if NASD internet names get some love.   If the market continues to go our way, we expect the institutions to want these types of companies on their books and that's why we consider them nice longer term hold potential.   RESP had the best start but now is lagging the bunch.

OEH , the lux lodging stocks have throwing up good numbers (HLT HOT), eventually this hits secondary names and one we started in again is OEH as revenues per available room look to be higher in '07.  If the institutions do their homework, they'll likely want to hold this one into earning this month.  Actually, this one has so much institutional interest(96%) already it might allow them to walk it up.  We are looking for this type of discovery here.  A slow and steady move into earning off these new highs.  If this 96% ownership is too much or the price is a little expensive have a look at..MHGC

MHGC trades under $20 and we started a position late Friday.  Think Super Bowl, think The Delano and then you'll see what MHGC is about.  The chart looks jus' fine and the 25mln float is jus' fine.

It's pretty easy to break up the trading stocks between those you want to hold over the longer term. We have the core which now includes CNS added to CCF USAP MFW,  the last 3 may need to rest here and there as January has been nice to them and us all.  The cheapies are to trade NWK TRCR TGX, you can throw in HRBN AVZA even ALGN till we see a trend or not.  Plus, we have the not so volatile more expensive names such as the ENR VARI VTRU VE.  There is a fave steel play USAP, a fave aluminum play CENX.  A fave oil play in the steady MTRX.. if you want to carry such, a fave Russian telco in GLDN, a potential lux lodging play in MHGC OEH.   Basically there is something for all types of traders/investors.   We're not throwing out the SWIR's out of sight, instead we'll be digging for these types that are not getting love off earning as potential plays in the very near future.

Need Direction...

Yes, that's how we feel about this market generally.   Naz has basically been stuck between 2400 and 2480 since last November and neither break outs nor breakdowns have yielded any significant results.    Ok, we at DJIM normally do not talk about the overall market trend much but we feel the current state of the market may explain some of the lackluster movers out there.   Will CSCO help out?, the numbers might be there but will the Naz use it to go for a ride?.   Maybe it was too much to burden AAPL and GOOG with;).   Sure, there are trading opportunities and some strong individual strong performers, but it'd definitely broaden the movement if the market is actually on a steady uptrend.    At this moment, we are still not committing most of our cash into work.    Right now, it doesn't feel as if we need to go all in in a big way, but rather, we are trading sporadic opportunities here and there.    As more good earning play come out, we are sure that we'd get more action but it'd be nice if this market gives us an excuse to go big and go all in.    We are definitely not there yet but we feel if a powerful move comes up, we'd be quick to get into the action quickly.   Early and most of the day an overall weaker bias but early gains in DJIM names provided an opportunity to take some gains,  primarily in CCF, MFW over $36.  CCF is just a little too jumpy right now, we'd like to see a close over $33 and away from the 9ema.

USAP, this one is definitely a hit so far.   The lack of volatility and strong action makes this one stands out from the rest of the earning play crowd.   We added some today on the 3 day breakout, but will watch the highs coming up carefully.

GLDN, this one pulled a typical sleepy move when nobody is watching but hopefully you were since Thursdays alert    This one sure took a while to get to this point.   But we can all agree that it's been a nice hold so far during the past couple of months.

VARI,  MLynch started coverage again with a buy rating and stock notched another new closing high here.   We favour these kind of plays here b/c of the institutional support and the liquidity it provides us.

AVZA/SILC, these cheapies didn't do much of anything today, but more importantly, they aren't giving back much either.   The longer they can hold and flatten out, the more likely the next movment will be up.  Only so far these techs will go without a little help from the big boyz.

CSCO who?

CSCO who?...Paulson who?....Bernanke who?....seemingly this is what the DJIM core and secondary holds kept saying all day.  Absolutely...no consideration or respect from DJIM stocks to the rest of the boring market or its talking players or what is coming AH's.  What could we possibly say tonight, except wow and laugh a bit.   The funny thing .. this is not first time we have seen this divergence between DJIM stocks and the weaker bias in the market.   If or better when the time comes that we come down to a few positions or go to mostly cash,  you will recall these days and ask what was I doing wrong?.  Basically, if you're not capitalizing on these moves it is a missed opportunity and you've simply been in the wrong stocks.   It's easy to blame the market instead of yourself!.   The interesting thing is these are not one day wonders,  these are for the most part continuation of moves in new DJIM stocks from 2007 and some late 2006.  

Let's take USAP and another new high attained today..it's only been wined and dined here from our first buy in high $36's....we don't expect all to make 30% so far in '07 on it,  but surely you have enjoyed more than your share of points on it...Why else are we all here?..Earning gems..NO?.   We're not here to wait on double bottoms, we prefer to toast a double shot of something at the end of the day after discovering a earning play early and hopefully sticking to it as it is discovered by your neighbour...and if you don't like neighbour there is nothing like selling it to him or her at the top!

Why do we keep an active chart list even when we sell most of a position...Example...VTRU

VTRU that we sold off most last week ( also an earning play from $43's)..simply, you take your points, your profits and watch list after...why?...so you let it consolidate a bit and then try to catch another move...WOW..we said it was looking better at low 47's in the Forum...minutes late this one really broke out and was nearing $49 end of day with volume.

CNS...little reaction after stellar earning but we held it on close watch looking for a turn.  It came last week and noted our buy in...4-5 pts since including another alert this week. You gotta love the last 4 day sticks on this stock!.

CCF MFW, we mentioned we were selling some of these off yesterday. Today was just an opportunity to rid of some more at higher prices or as in MFW case trade some.  After all was done, we probably came out with a bit more MFW than we had yesterday at the close.  We are not arguing with these going higher,  but we have to realistic especially in a market showing a weaker bias all day with stocks covered here from 27's (CCF) and MFW ($28). These are 20-30% moves just in 2007. 

Speaking of selling, GLDN hit the 57's today without noticing where its' trading..the flat NAZ!.  Besides the run from the high 30's here, this was alerted last week at $53  and yes we took some of the short term profits.  If you've kept track of this stock, you know this has been a great pick up on any pullback, especially to the 9ema.  We've kept enough to prove this is our favorite Russian telco stock.  Speaking of closely followed holds from last Q,  let's not forget the ABM making new highs..this is as steady as they come from $21's for DJIM readers.

Not to be out done, we had one (AVZA) from our bleachers, the cheap seats come through in a nice way.  If you didn't catch the first alert at the open the other day, hopefully you moved on Monday's.   Plenty of opp to add at $6ish to grab part of this move.  The volume wasn't spectacular but hopefully the NCH brings in some more money overnight.  SILC, TRCR just fine as well today.

Considering, DJIM stocks have done these runs in '07 without the NAZ's help,  we'll put our pom poms down tonight and let the CSCO cheerleaders pave the way..Let there be many!...The ones with AAPL and GOOG on their sweaters had little bounce in their cheer and definitely no kick!.  Some suggested reading in our archive as to the possibilities for tomorrow.  Same ole?.  We'll be cautious and take any bump for profits most likely.

http://djmarkets.squarespace.com/journal/2006/11/9/cscodisco.html

..How about...??

..we just put this day away and watch the All-Star game or something?.  Honestly..despite what looks like a terrible day on paper..NASD down 30, DJIA almost 150, it all seemed without real conviction on the sellers side.  What transpired today was an overloaded bag of expectation for Bernanke to give this market a lift.  You've heard us talk of Paulson repeatedly coming to the rescue of the market... go back recently here on the Journal and see how it coincided with the recent market rally......when he speaks, we go up and this is somewhat expected of Bernanke speak..unfortunately.  Those in the market loop knew Beranke wasn't going to let any tricks out of the bag today...it was what they call an 'academic' speech.  Somehow without him spilling the beans the market used it as an excuse to turn back to the HD guidance and somewhat unravel the market later in the day. But, seriously how much unravelling is there to do when the market is extended as it was heading into today's trading?.  Won't take much!...NASD up 5 straight days, the DJIA/SPX near resistance points.  Today was a distribution day no doubt and it was simply time we eased on the accumulation of stocks.  AA was never the end all of earnings reports, it's just tee-off time in our books for another season....but as we say around here... it's earnings season 12 months a year at DJIM, as the likes of PENX never seem to put a close to an earnings Q...

What were the notables on this distribution day?. You can't expect many as distribution doesn't play favorites and usually goes after biggest gainers first...so, it is no surprise most of the closely followed here closed in the red...A few stood out.  Despite the early sell off gap in the Solars at the open, a couple of names showed vigor as any sell off in the markets taking them down intraday was shrugged off constantly....

LDK, noted this one off the chart last night.  It definitely trades choppy, but there was interest throughout the day as every dip was being bought up.  All you have to do is look at the last dip as the market slipped deeper into the red late and the recovery it made closing back near the the day highs at $37.

TSL, whenever a momo stock can make an intraday bounce of 6 pts, you have to give it kudos for its days action.  So, we'll give it such for today.  FLSR might have a needed a rest , don't you think after yesterday?.  A downgrade didn't help but a 4 point intraday trading range is nothing cry over.  You really have to take a 4+% slide into context here and with any momo stock trading at high prices.   It comes with the territory.

TBSI, this is where experience and an understanding DJIM stocks came into favor today.  Don't remember exactly at what price we started covering TBSI at DJIM,  but one thing you might have seen and noted is the dips this stock is capable of.   If you've held it or just watched, you know a dip has been an opportunity to re-enter this stock.  Sure..today's dip was exaggerated but it only warrants more of your attention and action.  What happened today at the open?. They bought a vessel for 29mln.  Siince when is that a bad thing?.   Some saw it as a reason to dump, a flood ensued and what was a damn extended stock as we have noted recently...fell from 33 to 27's.  If all you wanted to do was flip, our alert probably gave you a fast flip as it moved to 31.50.  We traded some and held some of what we picked up in the 28's and are fine with it at the close as it held above 9ema.

Speaking of 9ema...well ...we don't really in this case as it's speculative junk, but you might want to give LOCM a look very soon for a possible trade. Again, remember we are not in for a relationship on these types as when we alerted and watched it go to $13+ the next day recently.

CCF, you probably remember this one from an alert play in January that turned into a little winner. At that time, it reported something like .62 cents to get our attention. Well, this time it reported .68 AHours, if you forget the split it did for a second.   In other words, this Q is better EPS and Revenue than what got our interest 2 quarters ago.  The question is who wants to get involved tomorrow in a EPS winner after a day like this and especially one stock that is not very liquid.  We`ll see tomorrow if it can attract interest, liquidity most importantly of all.  We don`t want to be stuck with nice size lots with no one to sell it to at the beginning of earnings season in the days to come....might as well stuff a fat ceramic pig instead...

Tough to shake off earnings enthusiasm...

It's almost unthinkable that we'd start the earning season with a nasty drop which begins the long decline.   What happened yesterday simply gives many traders a dose of reality that nothing goes up forever and pullback/pauses are very common even in a seemingly bull market.    Hopefully, you just relaxed watched the All-Star game and watched our Blue Jay star make a catch late in the game!...Wow, wasn't that something..lol...Guess the manager thought his arms were too tired after the HR' derby the night before to let him get an at bat.   Thankfully, today proved that nothing has basically changed since the day before yesterday.     Good earning plays are still being rewarded and bad ones are being dumped.   Things are about as orderly as it gets.     Also, for most participants, it's irrational to sell before the optimistic expectations they have with respect to their holdings.     For DJIM, it works the opposite because we only get excited AFTER an earning has been announced.   For us, there's no optimism, no expectation nor any feeling toward any up coming earning announcement.    We are just excited over other people's excitement so we can take advantage when the actual trade comes.

There's no shortage of plays on the table today.    For us or for most traders in our loop, we'd like to point out that we have a habit of working with the green plays.    It's not only easier to do but it also makes a lot of sense regardless of the market condition.     In an up market, obviously you want to hang with the ones with the best momentum.  In a down market, anything green pretty much makes them stand out and you sure want a piece of the action unless the market is in a total distraught.    Buying dips, on the other hand, is definitely not our favourite strategy and we'd try to stay away from it as much as we can.     When you buy a dip, you couldn't help but thinking that you are just taking a chance that hopefully you are buying it near the intraday low.     The planning of the trade as well as the execution will be tough on your mind when you go against the trend.      That's why in an up market or when the market is in a clear bull mode, it's always better just to ditch those "buy on (#)ema dips" and work with the new highs and break outs.

LPHI, you are probably wondering why we weren't being aggressive buying the dips on this one when the "clear" outcome is for it to go challenge the new high.   Well, there's always the probability that it won't.     We basically want to strike when the moment is right.   Today we got that moment between $35 and $36 and we got in.    Instead of being in this one for a while and waiting for a move to happen, we'd prefer watching it until the move comes.    Now the chart looks good and it looks like this one is ready to challenge its old high and beyond.     We'd be adding more of this one aggressively if and when this one strengthens up.

CCF, our old friend did it again.   This one came out with pretty good number as noted last night and stock acted correspondingly.   We like the volume this one exhibited.    As we have mentioned earlier today, this one has an IBD rating of 85 93 before the report.  If the number gets revised up, it can mean a whole new world for this play.   Again, it's just a possibility and not a sure thing.

ASYS, finally, this is a new  play we are adding to our list after its tremendous "look at me" volume today.    This one has a very small float and since they are associated with solar plays, we think this one is way undiscovered compare to others.   Sure, many traders have started noticing this one today but we think the fun may be just the beginning.  If you played it off the alert, you got 2 runs of almost a $1 intraday...we're looking for more and so just added on the dips.  This little company is profitable, revenues growing and a very small float and not a one trick pony that was trading under 50k share day after day (2.2 mln today). This is the type of company when it reports that has the markings of potential yr. over yr numbers that will get it attention...but we're not waiting for that day off this volume. We said, we are seeking more attention for anything solar from the firms, news to keep these going, anything with solar has a ring to it to us, even if it is something like this today on a semi/solar like AMAT, which ASYS also happens to be...BofA believes solar opportunity transform AMAT into growth stock, BofA believe is AMAThas closed another solar thin flim deal with a European co. They est the size of the deal is 40MW with the initial investment in the 60m range. Firm believes the latest deal is particularly important as it is an emerging application, "building integrated photovoltaic". Total value of solar thin film contracts won to date, firm ests, is in the 540 mln range.They think AMAT will now win 600-900m in contracts in FY07 vs guidance of greater than 400 mln.

DRYS, this one was mentioned a couple days ago as our favourite shipper now before TBSI went tipsy.   It's been mentined here many times before that as well.  We felt TBSI needed a pullback but this one looked better chart wise, anyway.  btw..TBSI is back to $31 after yesterdays sale.  But it was DRYS today who showed us who's the boss and took on almost 10% and a new high.    Again, we wouldn't want to chase this one blindly as the risk/reward ratio is not nearly as good when it was around $45.

AZZ, to us, this thing for sure is going to break $40 and beyond.   Action looks superb in this one and we are adding.