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DJIMSTOCKS- since 2006 - Toronto, Canada/ London, U.K

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Entries in ASTI (10)

Wednesday
Mar142007

Tricky Environment

Maybe we should have a huge sigh of relief over today's results or better yet, a drink or two!   Overseas markets were rocked by 'our' yesterday's mkt,  so expecting a retest of the recent low was just about what everyone expected.   What everyone expected came as expected but we bet not many expected such a wimpy test of the low and the almost immediate recovery.   In conclusion last night, we mentioned a break of the recent low support and then a break of what should become resistance to the upside quickly as a possibility.  Well, it happened and we could get continuation but this definitely puts this market in a trickery position as this happened a little too fast and easy.   If you believe that we've just hit the bottom then further churning would make this thesis very healthy.   If you believe that there's way more downside to come, then today's action may be nothing more than a wishful blip until the real selling starts.

Either way, we don't take a stand and we take the action one day at a time.   One thing is for sure though, we keep mostly cash and only trade with small sizes and trade those names that are currently in favour and in play.  Of course, if momentum comes we add and trade some parts intraday making sure we are not over extended overnight.   This may sound too corny to many of you b/c we have been saying this just about everyday but unfortunately we have to show how serious we are when it comes to how we approach this market.

Here are some stocks we've been trading today....there were a few nice opp's out there.

ASTI, perhaps we should've alerted this a little earlier and the reason why we didn't is that the index was getting hammered earlier and we weren't sure if any plays could've been dragged lower by the potential panicky market action.   When the index turned around, we knew we want to get out hands on this one as we thought the news the co. released was some very positive stuff.  Still a possible opening entry was available between 7.50 to 7.90's after we threw it out for some time.  We think this may legitimize this co. as a solid player in the solar space.   The float is tiny and momentum was strong.  

AFAM had a beauty of a day with a close over $25 and now is 4+ points since Mondays note on it premarket off earnings.

TSL, no one is a stranger to this stock, we chased some near the end looking for some follow through tomorrow.    Keep in mind, as long as this one is above its 9 ema and near 52 week high, this one would always be in play off a strong index move.

BTJ, maybe we shouldn't call this an oil stock anymore.   This looks as if it has IBD trading all over it.   Yes it's currently ranked as #1 IBD100 and yes emotion is high with this one.   Throw out the fundamental and pure action takes over when it comes to BTJ.   We'd be following its action closely to gauge its momentum.  It works both ways never forget.

The most entertaining was the mother of all squeezes in LEND that was just beginning when we noted it in the forum in the low 5's.  Even if you didn't trade it and only watched, you probably still got a rush out of it racing to 6.60's.  Anyways, it was a good reminder of why we love this gig! ..Cussin' for all the right reasons in amazement instead of yesterdays type of cussin' at the market.  We'll keep this close by for another intraday trade after getting to know its potential.

 

Thursday
Mar152007

What Bracket?

Seems the East, Midwest, West and South brackets are more important than the Trading bracket game to many today...or did we just need a breather and some caution before tomorrows CPI?.....or maybe too many were hypnotized by the Level 2 trading on LEND..lol.  Man, we're turning that damn thing off..promise!..another day of that and we'll need medication to get over the spins besides a stint at rehab.  That was definitely the 'play' the last two days doubling since yesterdays mention.  Either way there was some follow through on the indices and many DJIM small caps performed well and that is what we are taking into Friday.

ASTI, it really had no chance today for more gains as the Solar plays FSLR, TSL fell out of bed at the open and never got up. If ASTI starts to act like the others it will be a good sign of recognition in the space and we wouldn't mind that all.  The ups or the downs, as long as it is bunched in with the familiar names.  Sooner than later the market cap comparisons to those bigger names will get this noticed even more.  Considering the day it had yesterday, todays dead solar dead day and being down this much is nothing to a low float stock.  Another thing is to not forget the price of the deal.  It was big 23% of shares and with a big name (NHY),but it was $5.77.  This deal, this stock needs to digest the gains over the placement price.  Give it time, the smart ones will probably be accumulating this over next little while on any dips. Also... a morning note today from Lazard had some nice price targets on the solar stocks, one of which was a $65 target on FSLR.

By the open tomorrow after the CPI is released, we will know what to do with these names.  If we can look forward to any buying before the weekend it is on these familiar DJIM stocks, HDNG UEIC CYNO BTJ and AFAM.  Oh yeah, blast from recent past CCF is almost there too, but we'd prefer to be trading something more liquid now.   All these EPS stocks are looking pretty good as they are at highs (HDNG AFAM) or looking for a sign to get at one.  At this point we have small pieces of each and will look to add on those showing momentum...if momentum shows its pretty face.

We are working with our host Squarespace scanning DJIM postings to see why a small percentage of you are not getting 100% of the posts. Thank you for co-op and please let us know by email if this is still occurring as we go along.

 

Monday
Mar192007

all is well....

That's what most people wanted to feel today probably.   The truth is, we are still working off the ugly damage from couple of weeks ago.    In this case, churning is good and more up days and less down days within a contained range make a good setup for future rally down the road.   Meanwhile, when the index is churning away, we ought to be catching some opportunities and keeping an alerted stance at the same time.    Today.. definitely feels like one of those relaxed days and we welcome that change of pace.   Some stocks we are following...

DXPE,  yes it made it back onto the IBD100 list and this one has had a history of being on and off the infamous list.    Is this a big deal anymore?   We think it's not nearly as big of a deal as it once was couple of years ago.   In fact, the IBD play has toned down so much over the time that we find alot of better plays that aren't IBD associated these days.    The float is one thing that keeps DXPE interesting and as long as there's interest in this one, we are willing to stay in and trade it on the long side, aggressively.

HDNG, why this one still isn't on the IBD100 list while some other "crap" got on is still a mystery to us.    Well, IBD or not, the action still looks very healthy and it notched another high today.

FSLR TSL ASTI, a firm had negative comments on the sector premarket and therefore these names under performed the market.  ASTI has its own issues to get over, the private placement price.  FSLR got a lift from the IBD article and it feels like a less volatile bet at this moment.    We are keeping our eyes closely on these and will re-enter when they gain some momentum to the upside again.

CYNO/ JSDA, both stocks gapped at the open off the positive market and held the gap till the close. We sold off some of the CYNO move, the JSDA we weren't holding.  We'll keep an eye on both for another try.

VIP/ ROS,  it seems that some stocks just won't go away and these pair notched a new closing high today off pretty good volumes.    Yes these are foreign stocks that can be volatile at times.    However, when the momentum clearly shows one direction, this type of move can be very rewarding as well.  If you didn't get in or trade them today, we'd pay attention to the charts as these Russian telcos made not the prettiest of candles giving up quite a bit off the top.  This included MBT, to a lesser degree GLDN.  Be patient for indication this move is real now.

Overall, we feel that market is doing a pretty good job of working out of its corrective phase.   At this point, nobody can say for sure how long this corrective phase will last.    One thing is for sure though is that there's still tons of cash on the sideline and ppl won't hesitate twice to jump into a hot sector, story stock, or a general market rally.    We'll just have to make sure that we get in at the right time to get our money's worth.

Tuesday
Mar202007

waiting for catalyst perhaps?

It seems slowly, if not surely, that people are beginning to forget about the dreadful one day decline we had a couple of weeks ago.  Others are spreading fear that we are in for a rude awakening. We just go with the flow.  We can't predict the market's direction by reading into people's mind, but we can definitely gauge people's mood by reading their action.   Market has again firmed up today without a hint of slowdown anytime soon.   Oracle's earning is apparently good tonight and the fed policy statement is also going to be released tomorrow.   However, what will be the catalyst for this market to get a volume move is still something we are wondering about.   Maybe it'll be a combination of things that'll get things going.     For now, we are simply playing one opportunity at a time and pick only the obvious plays and staying away from those rebound plays. We haven't put up many plays lately, but being selective has produced some nice days in stocks like DXPE,GLDN, HNSN.  When one runs out of gas... get filled up with the next until it's ready again or at least reduce in size to hold through.

ASTI, the reason why we are writing this one first is that we felt many readers may not be up to par on the 1234 setup mentioned on this forum.  Basically, a 1234 setup works if the stcok closes above previous day's range on its fourth day.   We had an attempt earlier but as everyone can see, the setup failed near the end.   The lesson learned here is that it's imperative not to jump into the conclusion of a potential breakout unless it's confirmed.    The confirmation either comes with volume and a break of the resistance and hold through the end of the day.   We noted earlier that we are looking for a break of $8.65 (this was our confirmation to go hard in size soon after) on volume to consider a good signal and guess what?  The day high was $8.62!   Unless flipping for 30 cents or so is your game then staying disciplined is a priority if you are new to the trading small floaters.    Trading aside though, we still think this one is a good play for a solar stock.    The overall solar sector is still in some of a funk right now that none of the other two DJIM big boys can seem to get any steam going, not yet anyway.   We'll just have to be patient and watch and wait for opportunities. 

HURC,  we have been noting this one as one to keep on top of your trading list. Today we got a good close that we've been waiting for to add to. This one in our opinion is ready to start a new leg.

HNSN, it's in play and believe us, it's not just retail traders like us that are putting this one in play.   Momentum is pretty high with this one and we like this sort of breakout that started the other day.

SIMO, this one came out with earning premarket and raised Q guidance ( a sequential declince of 3-7% instead of the previous 15-20% in revenue) and it climbed steadily higher throughout the day.   For some reason, we are actually pretty comfortable trading some selective tech stocks.   This one is also no stranger to trading community and it'd be interesting to see where it goes from here.   We bot a small position today and will watch for signs to add.  SIMO is IBD#6 (98EPS,97RS)

NVTL, this was an alert on the 13.70's and we said it was a steady bugger that survived the meltown. Seemingly nothing has changed as it creeps along. TWeisel came out with some positive comments on the momentum their business is having.

DXPE, a slight pullback is expected and hopefully you all locked in some gains today.   We'd be watching this one closely for a reversal at some point and given the small float, the reversal can come at literally anytime.   If playing conservatively, we'd be looking for the recent high as the breakout point for a chase.

Thursday
Mar222007

Tanned....

and not the crispy burned type......Damn....it was hot in here!.  It doesn't take more than a 60 watt bulb to tan these Toronto boyz but nothing gets them hotter than a few of their Solar plays movin' and grovin'.   Rumor has it the market took the day off as many had expected following yesterdays blow out afternoon.   Well,  we didn't notice as this was one those 'oblivious' to the market indices days as our closely followed had a helluva day.  DJIM's gig is to get you following what we trade,  the tedious research can wait till we throw out a new stock to consider ...we'll find what you can trade over and over again and as noted last night some you can store away as well.    Recently, we said it might be wise to put some shares of solar plays away in a shoe box and not worry about trading them in and out as this story is not leaving us for a while....Today..was a perfect example of the potential in these names.  Solar stuff is nothing new as we've traded the WFR SPWR'sin 06, but we like the FSLR, ASTI, TSL to concentrate on in 07'!.   For the average investor or trader to be,  there is no extra plays you need.   We're full time and it's plenty for us.   Until a secondary play catches the same fever as our current plays..we won't go there!.  We welcome the next FSLR...when it comes!...

ASTI...wow are members are the greedy bunch...lol.  We 're not going to push it to $10, we were just below $8 yesterday.  We said when to expect 'us' to come in the last few days.  The script was written and we kept in touch all the way through.  Still...more than one opportunity existed today!.  We've talked about the day if ASTI catches the solar fever and gets bunched in with our other names.  We wanted that!.   If you begin to think like us, the early action in TSL and FSLR should have made you think it might spill to ASTI or at least hope for such and therefore been watching closely.   If you consider our mentions of a potential powerful  'flag' move that ASTI was creating yesterday.  Whats a flag?.  In laymen terms, it's a pennant of sorts in some circles....one look at the chart and the tight range (spread hi-low) yesterday was a move in the making and today there was a catalyst to use to solar it up...the TSL and FSLR to set the bugger off.    So there was two trades in ASTI today.  One was the piggyback ride of the solars to the first leg to the $8.70-80's and the second which we spoke of the last few days.    We had numerous emails, "is the love" and we responded on the forum that you will feel and see it.  The volume was a measly 700k at this point.  The love did come and ASTI added 2 million more shares to the volume end of day and a high of $9.70 was hit on the move we were looking for.   Maybe after 17% on the day gain, we should not concern ourselves about the close.  Sure, we would have liked the highs to be taken out end of day, but 17% is plenty and enough to spread the ASTI name around for a little while....30 cents off the top is nada!.  Maybe we should also accept this is not a Baskin Robbins stock, as in flavor of the day, small float momo stock to run EFUT, FFHL style and accept this is a longer term investment like Norsk (NHY) thinks it is by picking up all those shares.

FSLR, what can we say? ...our fave ain't going to the doghouse after a NCH.  TSL, a top 3 solar here..still has some catching up to do but definitely played its part today.   When we started DJIM, we talked about catching points and watching them add up....parts of 3 points on these two and the ASTI play and you should have a nice glow about you tonight!.

OEH, this has turned quietly into a pride and joy type here.  It is these stock picks that we really like to hit on the head.  Also VTRU,  a earnings and takeover play for DJIM this Q was taken out today for $48 or so.   Well, we already saw higher than todays trade in VTRU after we started covering it,  so today just nailed the trade idea for DJIM.    OEH was here first as a trade that busted out in the 40's after an alert and later it turned into a takeover play.  See Alerts in preview section.   This was confirmed a few weeks ago by Briefingcom and today it hit the press big time.  We got a little lucky buying it again yesterday........well, maybe.......when you look for strength, you sometimes get rewarded and we did today.    We buy NCH's and OEH was flying yesterday as noted in the morning forum before the market even had a chance to suck up the Bernanke.   Looks we don't need to stay at a HMIN at $16 bucks a night now!..lol.  We've kept some and traded this 6% move today and think our OEH can fetch some more room service.  Our mini bar needs re-stocking after todays DJIM stock ride.

KBW, the financials were running hard yesterday afternoon after the FED talk and if you didn't want to dish out about $200 bucks for some GS, we gave the forum an alternative DJIM play at $35.  GS exhausted today, KBW ...which was available for under $35 yesterday... closed at the days high at $37.08.  No easier play for a few shares out there.   We had a laggard as in one not many still associate with a financial play and it proved to be a good bet for a few points.

Where do we stop?;)

BTJ, our oil play..up 2 bucks-6% to a NCH.

CYNO hit 27.66 and still made a NCH,  NVTL almost to mid 15's and looks to solidify the $15's,  HDNG another NCH.  Some others had little spikes like SIMO and GLDN before giving it up, but they've had a few real nice days to follow up on.   Only real loss was a measly $1.20 in HURC. The few that were red, closed less than 1% off.   You can't argue with what our closely followed did today in a boring market day.   Last night, we said you might want to take some profits as this market digests yesterdays afternoon roll.   If you didn't today with this golden opportunity while the market lagged DJIM stocks....consider some tomorrow if profit taking Friday comes.   Still,  this weekend should provide some merger activity that has been shelved before the FED action yesterday.

We dabbled in some CRZ and to a lesser degree OYOG.  CRZ, asset management co' is one we watched before and it reported last night, Crystal River Captial reports Q4 EPS of $0.57 vs $0.07 yr ago; revs rise 69% to $59.1 mln . We like the way it traded and will look at a break over $28 to add.  OYOG is coming to high today and is involved in the oil and gas biz.  It's float is all of 4mln shares and when it comes at a price of $60-70 bucks, you can expect some big spreads.  We'll see if it continues to new highs before adding to a very small piece we hold now.

 

Sunday
Mar252007

DJIM #13  2007

As we head into another week of trading, we begin to wonder who is doing the 'blowing'.  Well....it was like hurricane gusts to propel this market.  All this despite oil going back to $62 and a few other world issues that didn't dampen the buying during the week.   Someone ' big' wants this market up...might the earnings and guidance coming up be a reflection of this enthusiasm or we just being set up for a hard thrashing at the awaiting tops???.  The timing seems quite interesting as we approach another earnings season.  Should be interesting.  Our strategy remains the same as we take this day to day, attacking opportunities as they come before us.  Last week was a hoot on many trading fronts....we hope we get a third of it this week.

ASTI provided the speculative trading. We tried to walk our strategy on DJIM cause ASTI seemed to have a chance of catching momo.  This momo can be a powerful thing and could also be a dangerous thing.  We've done the same with EFUT, FFHL giving in depth thoughts as it trades along.  What momo brings is also greed as all of a sudden 20% in a few days is just not enough.  We gave our next entry point as to when we were expecting a break and some momo and then a heads up premarket Friday to watch that good ole' Mr. Greed as the stock gapped and gave you an opportunity to pocket the gap winnings.  We said our script was written to that point, this means Mr.Greed was not going to look over our shoulder the rest of the day.  How will it trade this week?. Who knows but this story will have ample opportunities to trade in and out in the future.  We'll be there in size again but for now we'll hold a small position only.

OEH,  provided the long term DJIM thinking coming to fruition with a 3bln price tag attached. If you didn't take a position on this speculation we talked about a few months ago, it shouldn't have stopped you from buying and profiting nicely in the last 3 days of trading.   It still gave a 2-3 pt day Friday after we pointed out in the forum that the price some are expecting could be higher.  We've held quite a bit into weekend hoping to wake up to a buyout on merger Monday. This is a safer type of greed as we look for a few more points.

The big gains last week came from the Oil/Gas equipment/field services etc and DJIM was there with BTJ and its 13+% week.  Here, we also have DXPE which looks to be building up for a move higher.  If you are going deeper into this sec/energy, we threw out OYOG, which IBD says this weekend  is within a buying range.

On the Russian front, GLDN which was already a go here in last weekends Journal went from low 52's to a few cents shy of $57. But the play mentioned Monday night, might be VIP going forward. Why?.  Well...do you remember how this went last Q when we took on MBT and then said we could get a spill into VIP and other Russian telcos. Guess what, MBT put out very good earning and this should be a hint of what to expect from VIP's earning.  VIP closed with a NCH Friday.  Also... one of DJIM early plays, WBD made a nice run late in the week to close at NCH and should be potential playlisted.

As far as Solar, we said last weekend they'd be interesting to watch and as it turned out to trade.  FSLR checked in with a 7-8 points during the week.  It tired some Friday, but maybe that was expected as profit taking sunk in after a big week.  Still...it finished up there on the chart and remains our favorite solar story/stock to trade.

AFAM, NVTL and others are pretty clear over on BT's charts.

CRZ AMAG, we are watching to uncork a few dollars into but we need to see more action to add.

**Remember to visit website and check into DJIM Trader Alerts-Comments to activate email delivery by pressing Subscribe on top of page.  See forum note on this subject as we will be using the link for Alerts- Comments starting Monday.

 

Tuesday
Apr102007

Back and forth..

One big day is being followed by a so so day.  Simply, there was no catalyst today for the market.   We'll take that as we wait for earning season to get into gear.  By now, we are hoping everyone has gotten used to the idea of selling some positions early in the day to lock in the profit and look for opportunities late in the day for a flip next morning/ day.  This is no time to watch 3 and 4 pt drops and watch your profits disappear in plays like TSL USAP when you should be building a earnings nest of cash to have on hand.   Come back to these plays.   Call it a trading system if you wish and it has worked well during the last while.  When earnings start flowing this is when we will get back to the more usual type of trade. We have officially kicked off earning season tonight with AA reporting and it looks a little ho-hum to fuel a 9th straight day of highs for DJIA.  The market will be focused on earning reports next few weeks and so shall we.    Some standout action today...

FSLR,  solar stocks taking turns leading the sector and today's FSLR's turn.   It finished up over $60 and did not give up most of its gain today.   Again, we have to point out that a big point gainer in these solar stocks may not guarantee a nice follow through the next day.    We are going to be watcing the first 20 min. of trading closely tomorrow to see which way it'll lean before we decide to lean into it.

ASTI, this is a stock which we had skepticism earlier in the day but stock proved its worthiness toward the end.   Again, we just don't want to draw the conclusion too early on a "potential" setup untill the setup actually materializes.      What's the difference adding at $9.40 early in the morning compare to adding at $9.60 near the close?   In the first case, you are running into a possible scenario that stock fakes a b/o and may head back down.   In the second case, you ensure that the stock closes near the high and prints a nice candle on the chart which gives a much better probability of a potential follow through tomorrow.   The end difference is about few hours in waiting and 20 cents in price.    To us, we'd pay for better probability and this is what we meant by buying at higher price if the action can firmly confirm the setup.

SLP, this one had EPS released earlier today and stock just strengthened throughout the day.   We are playing this one b/c of the reaction to its earning and its recent trading history of being one to play.    This one can get some serious momentum and today's price/volume shows the kind of potential it can get.    Go with the action.   Trade what you see from the action, not from the press release.  Again, this one can get volatile so we are treating this one as a speculative play only. We mentioned this one in the forum as something we're looking at 15.60ish, a quick trade ensued for some to 16.48high.

GMRK /MFW, we added some back on both of these moves and will be looking for further strength next few days.

NIHD, another NCH at 79.37.

GRZ URZ, guess we are spreading our wings a bit, maybe it is the ease to get 15%-20% on these cheapie plays quite quickly. GRZ was intro'd mid 6's, so it was a quick $1+ ride to 7.60 today.   URZ, we intro'd last night and just want to follow up as it was up a quick 6% today before giving it up.  So did we..lol.  Still.. Uranium is hot, it rose to the highest levels since '86 and was up over $2+ a pound last week after having a big '06 when it was rising .70c a week.  Nuke fuel is in demand and if we can catch a cheapie for a ride here and there, we'll try again!.  There is a bullish macro future here, so why not.   Again..these plays are speculative in our DJIM books and not where we are concentrating on making money.

Wednesday
Apr112007

..Jar of peanut butter

Last night we noted AA numbers, although the best in co's Q1 history, it will likely be a ho-hum to the market.  We didn't anticipate a 9th straight of new highs for the DJIA and that simply relates to our make up going into the day.  Basically, it is a stance of caution and a willingness to sell as we see nothing ahead for the day.  This is expanded by the uncertainty of the Minutes at 2pm and what it can do to the market.  This is simply a cloud over the market and this doesn't exacttly make us buy happy, but rather sell happy and that's what we mostly did this morning.  Nothing was revealed that gave us cause to step back in the afternoon.  Still...we stuck around in anticipation of RIMM's numbers to step into an old DJIM name, the funds were ready and we got ready for the first true EPS play of the season...licked our fingers and were ready to dip in the RIMM peanut butter jar.  You see when it comes to stocks in the 70's to over $100, we joke about how many fingers you gonna dip?..a finger is a 100 lot.  We're not exactly gonna dip 2 hands full at 140 bucks a lot.  Well...we were quite disappointed RIMM's guidance couldn't give itself a jolt or maybe the techs going forward.....But then we got a pleasant surprise it seems with another peanut butter stock....AMAG

AMAG, this was a pick up in late March....Well we played it from just under 60, got the breakout recently and left on the 3rd of April as today's results were to be released that afternoon AH.  We said we'd get over a gap open in the morning if the results were favourable, but today we got a gift at 4:30 as the results from two trials were released and we had it to you in a few minutes.  We found our Jar and dipped into this around 70. We love the float of this stock near 10 million and a big short interest.  This one is also loved by the analysts and we expect to see some kind words tomorrow morning.   Now that it is trading at 74, we are to believe this will be kind and we could get more follow through.  The beauty of the market is AMAG gave us what we were looking from RIMM....the best part is it might give us more by late morning than RIMM could ever have..easily.

late March, ..."we used to trade this back in early 06' with great success under a different symbol, it's a streaky stock and if you get on the right side..at the right time this one can be quite the winner. It's in late-stage development for iron deficiency related anemia in chronic kidney disease and that is the speculation part.  We started very small and will see if the small float and big short interest can dance with the Deutsche Bank $100 target put on it today".

UXG, was a premarket buy in the 5.60's and quickly climbed to over $6 at the open and a a quick 6-7% for the flippers here.  Well, we actually did some of that and as we said we will look to buy the dips, which we did later again.  Having some gold rather than the Nasdaq stuff seemed like a better idea later in the day.  We are traders and if we get 6-7% in the first 10minutes, we will take it.  It finds itself there over $6 in AH's today and we think it goes higher.  We will continue to trade these cheapies GRX, URX and now UXG.

ASTI, we explained the play last night after alerting to it late in the day. Well buying and saving 20c on a early entry didn't matter much did it?. This baby got love premarket and it extended to an early 10.80 high. Yeah, we sold up there in the 10's..we said last night what we are doing these days.   If you didn't catch BT's email of its potential early in the day or don't get in on our late day buys...don't worry there will be more opp's like we said before in this name.   Right now, we are exhausted by the TSL's, FSLR's after the nice moves here and now ASTI.  We're taking a breather now on them even though this was one of the few sec's up today.   We're holding some FSLR end of day only.

USAT, we noted this one surprised us so far and that we could get something to look forward to.  It came pretty quickly and a shot up to 12.50. Not bad for a 10.60ish alert end of day a few days ago.  At this point we are trading it, it has potential to trade beautifully if more momo money discovered it.  Right now it feels like its on the fringes as nobody knows what to make of it.  It's not exactly earning related and momo traders aren't about to go deep into DD on this or any stock.  We added and then sold some.   If you were watching  you probably pulled off a nice intraday trade after our note.   Again..we are trading it and hope more come to it.   If you wanted to hold it for a few days, you had your chances to buy around $11 and to sell today and make a quick 10%+. 

SLP, it had a fine afternoon and from previous history, we'd be patient and drive into it more when it moves.

Everything else was ho- hum and anything lagging was being cut off for the time being.

Thursday
Oct182007

Google effect

There is really only one company reporting tonight that matters to us and it is an important one, google!    Well, at least we can say that the results and the ensuing after hour action isn't disappointing.    With google at this price level and people aren't disappointed about its growth prospect and are willing to pay up, this only gives us a clue of the status of this market.    Yes, the big banks may give us some headache like headlines but we already expected that from them.   Banks are capable of taking this kind of earning hit(hopefully one time) and in our opinion will not impact the overall market that much.   This is still very much a growth dominated market.    We dig technology stocks as well as shippers and solars and any other sectors that's considered growth oriented.     To put this in perspective, many participants including DJIM traders believe that there's still quite bit of upside left in this market.   The key, of course, is to realize which stocks are the driving force of this market and stick with them at all time.   It's been a while since we have these many stocks that are triple digit or approaching triple digit on our watchlist.    This simply reflects the kind of activities that are going on in this market and we better be there to take advantage of them.

Right now, the last few days of weakness feel like nothing but a minor pullback.   In this case, strong stocks should be bought on dips aggressively as long as they are technically intact.   There's really only one way to play a bull market, you buy on dips and you buy on breakouts.   DJIM traders have been very aggressive on the long side the last while and we'd intend to keep it this way unless something dramatic happens.

Now onto some plays...

ASTI, exactly one month ago, this one pulled some stunning move and did a double within a matter of a week.   We definitely like to see the similar kind of movement this time around and so far we got a wicked start today.   This move got kick started by the news of insider buying yesterday and our beloved Briefing picked it up today.   Yes, it's in play and it's a hot one!

YTEC, for some reason, it just doesn't feel that this runup is over.   It's looking more and more like it's trying to setup for another run.   We are still holding our position and with the 9 ema catching up, it may just be a matter of days if not hours before it gets going.   It's certainly capable of doing that.

NTCT, this is a stock we've been watching for a few days and we finally jumped on it for a small position as it isn't pulling back from the recent runup.   This one has very good IBD rating but we feel in order for it to have a shot onto the IBD100 list, it will depend on its results next week.

Shippers,  EXM/TBSI/DRYS all had a good day and especially the first two.   This is really about how high these things can go as oppose to when they will stop going up.    We think the only reason that can stop them is when they forecast a slowdown in their business.

Besides all those usual suspects, we also like the action from GLDN, GSOL and ANW today.    Bottom line, keep an eye on all of the high flying stocks on your watchlist, as soon as you feel the consolidation is done, it's almost certain that they can go nowhere but up.  

Wednesday
Nov072007

Solar Burn...

What is really funny about this market is that while a couple of big names that kept on going down every day, we have some names that are going the total opposite direction, which is up.   The Citi news may have very well kick started this week, but all the focus now is on Cisco's earning tomorrow night.  As oil price keeps going higher, so too are the names from solar sector.   This is really the kind of market where you are either in a lot of pain or a lot of joy.    What makes it tough though, however, is to maintain a balanced portfolio where you try to speculate on which sectors would move next.   As we have witnessed, many of the Asian names have been under pressure the last few days while some of the more expensive names on our watchlist  kept us in the game.       

First, the good ones...

FSLR/SPWR/GOOG/MA/BIDU/AAPL/RIMM,  basically, had we been trading nothing but the expensive tickers ($100+), we literally would've been making a killing in this market.    These aren't the names we are unfamiliar with.   In fact, pretty much all of these names are positions in our portfolio at one time or another.    You can say that these are some of the obvious leaders in the market and those are the ones we ought to be owning if we believe this market is going higher.   The point it, we gotta have some of these names in our portfolio.   We may not afford all of them with big sizes but these are the ones that are carrying this market higher.

Solars, JASO TSL SPWR FSLR ASTI, every time dollar gets dumped, and oil gets bid up, and then these guys zoom another 10% it seems.    Some of these names are releasing earnings next few days so we'd have a pretty good picture how traders would react to their report given the current valuation.

AIXG, a somewhat new name to these parts is this German ADR semiconductor/equipment maker bought up early in the morning after earning. It's 9mth eps.17c vs. (0.03), while revenues jumped nearly 50%.  This co' is thriving on the demand for LED units which is in a strong secular growth mode.  The order intake Q# and the resulting backlog was very good here.  In the last 3 Q it's order intake has gone from 40 to 50 to 70mln euros resulting the co' largest ever order backlog.   This stock trades overseas as well and takes it's open gap cue from its action over there.

GHM/DXPE, these two are couple of the recent earning plays that are being bid up quietly.   We definitely don't want to ignore these as they can creep 10% on a weekly basis.

Now the nervous ones...

STV/LFT/CISG/GA,  all these have one thing in common and they are recent Chinese IPOs.    Aren't we supposed to be up 25% by now by holding these?   Right now, we are as puzzled as many others as to why all of these names aren't getting any momentum to the upside.    It feels like in  20 more trading day, there won't be anything left in these stocks;).     At this point, we simply have to play the statistics and probability game.    Any of these would be considered longer term plays and we just have to play that way accordingly.    The quiet period is going to end soon enough for some of these names and earnings are coming up as well.    We are looking forward to those events as they can be the kind of positive catalyst that can drive these stocks.    The bottom line, these plays are still at the beginning.

Simply, you cannot hold one or a few of these IPO's, 'nervous ones' without balancing out your book by trading/ holding the 'good ones'.  That is missed opportunities day after day.