Google+
YourPersonalTrader- Toronto Canada/ London UK

 

DJIMSTOCKS- since 2006-  Toronto, Canada/ London UK

 ·Daily stock market color and insight before every U.S market-open, (Ahead of the open- Into the trading week, 5X a week before 8:30 am/est. Follow our extensive trading desk experience and lead in recognizing daily event upside/ downside risks ahead of each trading day.

· DJIMstocks bridges the gap between the retail-investor / trader and the institutional players by filtering out the noise, abundance of information (good or bad) generated through the media/ Internet.

· Our daily Journals encompass our trading methodology allowing you to interconnect with us by ‘Shadowing’ our trading platform watchlist. A 'Shadow'list of 50-75 stocks is tailored and fragmented (outperforming SECTORS, MID-SMALL CAPS, EARNINGS/ GROWTH (EPS) linked stocks, IBD 50, MOMENTUM STOCKS) to gauge single stock action and the broad underlying market for SP 500 direction to go long or short. New plays (stock/sector) are added, especially during earnings season through Journal updates.

· A simple to follow package allowing any investor class to save time and enhance returns!.

 

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Monday
Jan032011

DJIM #1  2011

Instead of a recap of 2010 as everywhere you see this weekend, let’s get down to business as if January 3rd is any other day during the trading year.   No sombre violin playing for the Bears/ Shorts for the futile year they had and no Party like it’s 1999 by Prince celebrations for being on the ‘right side’ in 2010.   Yes,  2010 turned out to be the year of the momo/ growth stocks, which at end are cited as the ‘winners’ of 2010.   All in, just go back to DJIM Shadowlist in January/ February to see if the SPX 500 top 20/best performers ( FFIV, NFLX, PCLN, CRM CMI WYNN ARUN AZO CLF ) were amongst the 40/50 or so stocks in the DJIM composite at the beginning of 2010!.  Add later DJIM additions being involved in M&A this past year such as (BUCY, NZ, CML )  and the list dwindles some more for stocks to trade in 2011 as we can't expect repeat performances from the majority above.   That’s the beauty of a fresh trading year, new stocks and new sector groups emerging!

As far as the last week,  the notion to start the week of China hike offsetting any US market window dressing played out as the SPX was never more than 1pt up or down on any days close. (~1257-1259 close range).  Very  slow profit taking continued in the ‘winners’ growth stocks right into the final hours of December.  Sometimes it’s not what you trade from reading the Journal every morning, it’s what you don’t trade that keeps your accounts in check.  The potential lag in these higher beta stocks is something we covered here from the start of December.  Also, the flow instead trickled into Banks (BKX >15%) and other laggards (economic sensitive) as a product of investor confidence right into year end.    All in, as discussed we were no putting much into anything last week due to an illiquid market…incl..(SPX1260 “R”, no conviction after excellent eco’ data.). 

Mid –week,  we put focus back on Ag’ and related stocks/sub groups and an outlook for a China PMI that if ‘cooling’ to potentially wake up the market.  The number came out this weekend and it cooled off 1.3% from November.  A good start with US ISM on deck for Monday.  Other things to watch, the sluggish December for tech sector may finally get some newsflow starting with the Vegas CES (6th-9th) and possible pre-announcements into earnings season.  Casino Macau numbers out Monday/Retail and Auto later in the week.  NFP# out on Friday, add of +135 is the consensus.  Many major markets closed on Monday, incl. UK, CHINA, Canada, Australia leaving only money flow into US through the book door and thus a possible good start to 2011.

 

Tuesday
Jan042011

Back door

A nice way to kick off ’11, but still something to be wary of as the 1st trading day in 09/’10 produced even better results.  Still, despite the >6% rally of December the market hadn’t seen a >1% day since the first days of that month.  As pointed out last week, all the ‘illiquid’ action was irrelevant in respect to inability to cross SPX 1260 “R” and not seeing conviction off eco data to help for that to occur. Today, 1260 was crossed easily as the market rode to 1276 highs until volumes fell off later in the day.

  • Catalysts- as noted last week watch for a China PMI, if lower M/M it may wake up the market on ‘coolin’ factors. Importantly, inflation sub group of number fell 7 pts.  Also, Euro/US ISM came in strong signalling a synchronized global acceleration.  The ‘back door’ flow helped as well with most global markets closed.

Shadowlist

  • Momentum/earnings/ winners of ‘10 – woke up,  led by an article saying FFIV >3%  RVBD >7% APKT >9% were M&A targets spread to traders chasing other higher beta names for first time in a month.
  • Commodities-   Although Ag’s links lost steam after 3 days late in the day, the analysts are raising estimates/tgts on names as we had been looking for.  AGU  on Friday, today MOS (reports Tues.).  Coals , WLT, CLF >4% outperforming on Australian floods.  Steels  should also benefit from floods.  Precious metals, copper rolled over in PM. The ‘rare’ metals stepped up again as Dahlman Rose following in their own footsteps with another outrageous target of >80 on MCP >15%(did this with AUMN late last year, a gold stock we had up). AVL up >20%, REE >6%.   Looking further into OSN, it’s actually a nice growth stock with a ‘Rare’ connection, but notably a ‘steel’ stock that has to do with every China infrastructure aspect from highways to railways etc.  It’s also cheap and a fresh IPO importantly.  Still, it has issues as little China co’ are being exposed to fraud noise since December.  Everything else like CHGS CDII is definitely considered ‘junkyard dogs’ stuff here. 
  • NCH's- GTLS, JOYG, VMW, ROVI, HOLI, QLIK, ARB ARUN are just more Shadows putting in new highs intraday.
  • Financials- continuing December streak into earnings,  GS  breaking out
  • Consumer- Casino  sub group had very good Macau numbers and WYNN  finally got over 105.

Don’t pay much attention / trading decisions based on Global markets, thus the ES to start the day as most markets will be playing ‘catch –up’.  SPX 1280 as next ‘R”

Wednesday
Jan052011

RUT of a day..

A few things to be wary of heading into today’s trade played out.  One was not getting overzealous off the 1st day rally as it’s been the case the past 2 years, this coincides with not chasing the open based on Global markets that would be up playing ‘catch-up’ and finally, the real market ‘noise’ today was the steep rollover continuation of…”..Precious metals, copper rolled over in PM”,  down 3% on the day.   The open was the high 1274SPX and it was all downhill to last week’s highs for ‘dip buyers’ to come in.   The 1260-1263 support might be thin ice as it was generated through the ‘illiquid’ holiday market, so 1254 might the real support test (approx.between 9ma -20ma gauge).  The probability of a need to test 1254 is due to a wary and it wasn't the precious metals selling.

  • Wary-  the ‘big’ underperformance today of the “RUT”, which had been the leader during December’s grind higher.  Something to watch, but, maybe just a natural performance spread narrowing between RUT/SPX. Interestingly, the Shadowlist which is comprised of mostly smaller caps held up much better(with reason).

Shadowlist

  • Momentum/earnings/“winners of ‘10 –  held up (reason) due to anticipation of “CES Vegas” and possible news flow.
  • Commodities-  Our list unaffected by the steep commodity ($CRX) decline due to our focus on AG’s/ Coals (75% AUS. Mines halted).  Favorites in the groups such as MOS, POT, CF, CLF> 4%, WLT  all outperformed. LNN (irrigation) >4% had a noticable bid to any dip.  MOS’s earnings AMC should generate more of the sector upgrades we’ve been noting.
  • Consumer-  WYNN, LVS  >3-4% continued to move off…(Casino sub group had very good Macau numbers and WYNN finally got over 105)

All in, the trading notables off our list held up with reasons, any further broad market hiccup would be buying situations.

Thursday
Jan062011

Expectations rising...

Coming off an overnight low of 1255 ES,  ‘dip buyers’ came in for an impressive ~20pt reversal as investor sentiment was bolstered once again by ‘stronger than consensus’  eco’ data, notably ‘jobs’, ADP numbers on the heels of initial claims last week.  Higher revisions to GDP likely once again..  In all, as concluded yesterday… "..any further broad market hiccup would be buying situations".

Wary- Never hurts for watchful prudence in the markets, even when all is seemingly hunky -dory. Heightened expectations for NFP # now, consensus moving up to approx.. 200+.  If it doesn’t come in 200+K, markets holiday party might be curbed.

Shadowlist

  • Momentum/earnings/“winners of ‘10 –  the star of the day goes to recent list add, BSFT +14%  as it fed of all things 4G related coming out of 'CES Vegas’.   This one is ‘nutcase’, so it’s all about entry timing. (eg.9ema).  Newsflow is driving the group as a noted possibity to start the week…QCOM/ATHR marriage, RIMM pushing higher on Playbook unveilings.  Small caps-Software/networking stocks act very all. (APKT CRM FTNT ).   Addition to list: CAVM, this one could have been added easily last year, but there were enough names to trade.
  • Commodities -  Nothing new to add here. Even with a precious metals, some base metals in a higher USD environment the Ag’s-Coals outperforming.  LNN,, pushed higher early ~4% to recent gap before fading some.
  • Consumer -  Retail numbers in focus Thursday, hopefully wakes up group for some trading oppy. 
  • Financials - streak continues after a day off (BKX >3% YTD)
Friday
Jan072011

..a full table

Due to ‘better than expected eco’ data’ in US/ Europe the past few weeks the market is quietly worrying about ‘easy money’ being cut off following in the footsteps of China.   This was first evident in the Precious metals sell off / strengthening USD post hotter Euro inflation number this week as it raised concerns of ECB hiking before Q4.  The US escaped this by FOMC minutes this week as ‘no end’ to QE2 was signalled, but a lot has occurred since meeting in the way of US data points.  On Friday, it is not only the NFP# that might be a market mover, but maybe more importantly, Bernanke coming in front of the Senate at 930am that will put the QE2 issue at the forefront. 

Wary- 1) Bernanke any sign of ‘hawkish’ remarks (any signs of QE2 not being entirely fulfilled).

 2) NFP#- a big beat (1 forecast 400+) will likely cause QE2 fear ending sooner than 6mths.  This may result in a note here from late Dec….” Starting to think the way to derail this rally and correct……In this scenario, the market rallies off a good catalyst, but it becomes evident there is no conviction force behind it and the rally peters out.  Something to watch for later.” . 

 3) Heightened expectations for NFP # now, 200k is whisper (consensus 170K). If # below ~160, it may disappoint and cause selling.  November revisions will also be in focus.

Positive-   reporting season is around the corner and that may cause Shorts from being too aggressive in laying out exposure if things don’t go the Bulls way with the above.

Shadowlist

  • Momentum/earnings/“winners of ‘10 –  Outperformed again as Software, clouds ,networking stocks work. RVBD  new high, FFIV  looks to be setting up and CAVM  popped another 5-6% intraday.
  • Commodities -  Once again Ag’s/Chems do well led by a big POT  day.   USD strength/ Euro technical breakdown.. 1.26 next??? is an issue. If this continues it will likely begin to curb all commodity linked groups not affected yet.  “Rare”  stuff got a beating as reports Japan got more of the stuff last year than was expected.
  • Consumer - a pretty big disappointment (off >1%) on same store sales.
  • Financials - off 1%, mostly on downgrades in Banks.  Overall Financials are coming up to technical resistance of note.
Monday
Jan102011

DJIM #2  2011

As 1280 invokes ‘R’ for the past week, the market impulsively sells off here and will continue to find an excuse to take some profits.   On Friday, it was something completely immaterial in the ‘big picture’.(Mass. Foreclosure ruling).  Does any investor in Europe/ China give a damn and/or make an investing decision based on such with Sovereign debt/Inflation questions unresolved, respectively?  The answer is definite no-no, but in the US markets it’s reason enough to test 1260 support again!.    What was relevant and material was a weaker than hoped for NFP# , but a justifying Bernanke keeping QE2 ‘ alive and on track’  was much more important and offset the #.  If anything, the jobs number calls for QE3.  As far as the tape during the midday antics, it looked more ETF/ES driven as single stocks (exc. Financials/Banks), hardly twitched in either direction.  Indication is holders of stock are reluctant to sell as much as they are reluctant to buy more. 

Technical-  1256SPX 20ma (DJIM Benchmark for a few years now) is in focus and if broken will likely lead to a correction as shorts may finally lay out some exposure.  As per ‘RUT’ of a day'  post last week, the RUT has now lagged the SPX for consecutive weeks and could be foreshadowing ‘tiredness’ for the rest of the market.

Tailwinds(potential) Q4 earnings should come in better than Q3.  Shorts are not laying out positions ahead of potential train/ minimizing downside for now.

Headwinds- wary- (potential) US markets oblivious to rising Contagion noise again.  A case of shrugging it off or complacency at work?.  Looks like complacency in this view.

Shadowlist

  • Momentum/earnings/“winners of ‘10–   Entered the week looking for newsflow from CES Vegas and it definitely was the ‘Buzz’ of the week.(SOX >3%). Leading stocks CRM ARUN RVBD FFIV , >6-9% on week…”..Dec 30th….” further gains likely into the front half of January with individual 'leading' equities catching up..” As far pre-announcements, no major names, but a slew of mid cap types warned.
  • Commodities- USDA reports mid-week to possibly feed Ag space some more. 
  • Consumer- WYNN >14%, LVS>8%  continued the weeks move off Friday’s Tier1 positive comments …Turning point was early in week...(Casino sub group had very good Macau numbers and WYNN finally got over 105).
  • Financials - 2 day of selling, European unresolved peripheral stresses should continue to bring money flow here.  Foreclosure noise will persist.
Tuesday
Jan112011

'Inside the 20'

The trend remains the same as ‘Inside the 20’ (SPX 1260 to 1280) gets churned and churned.  Today, it was clearly the (see yesterday’s Journal) potential Headwind vs. Tailwind battle playing itself out.   In all, the Shorts are unwilling to lay out more exposure near 1260 and ‘dip buyers’ take over.  Still, the ‘Red Zone’ is providing trading oppy’s within DJIM’ Shadowlist.

Shadowlist

  • Momentum/earnings/“winners of ‘10 –   Some CES induced carryover as SOX leads again.  FFIV  last week noted as ‘setting up’ had a nice >4pts day to NCH territory.   Added EQIX  back to the trading Shadowlist and it proceeded to have a nice afternoon adding ~2pts to get up to 2 month highs. Some squeezing was felt here, let’s see what a potential breach of $86 brings.
  • Commodities- LNN, an add following a gap down earnings report, covered it’s gap in a big way >6%/4pts.  This despite a GS downgrade of Ag’s (CF/ AGU) halting the groups recent run.
  • Consumer-  Retail looked better.  Our list includes TIF, PVH, FOSL to trade if this has any follow through.
  • Miscellaneous-  added an old favourite at DJIM, EBS  following upped guidance that shows co’ is anticipating a ‘big’ gov’t contract.
Wednesday
Jan122011

Waiting..

An important end-game in trading is not to overthink, contemplate every whipsaw intraday.  This is the ‘space’ we are in (SPX 1260-1280) and a 6bln ES trade that supposedly spooked the market quickly intraday is really just a boring market looking for an ‘excuse’ to sell…”As 1280 invokes ‘R’ for the past week, the market impulsively sells off here and will continue to find an excuse to take some profits”. DJIM#2.   Don’t look too far into reasons for a swing intraday such as today’s unless there is a worthy newsflow headline.   It is what it is….. as seen by the volume decrease from last week and that is a market awaiting earnings and/or a bad sovereign bond auctions coming up (shorts futile hope).    An illiquid market will exaggerate any move, so look at Shadowlist if individual stocks are moving with the SPY/ ES to gauge the significance.  Up or down.   Clearly, today single stocks did not follow the steep drop.   Add the ‘blizzard’ for Wednesday in NY + long weekend ahead and nothing will likely be decided till earnings get rolling post-holiday.

In all,  if some profit taking around 1280 is the game,  get cash ready to use for new earnings plays in the coming weeks instead.  This is also one way to avoid any correction, if one comes in 2H January.

Shadowlist

  • Momentum/earnings/“winners of ‘10 –   No noteworthy flow, EQIX  added 2.5 intraday, but a squeeze never materialized.  Action was better on Monday.  Previous DJIM,  ININ  was the notable winner off an earnings guide, but this one has a history of gapping and not doing much for weeks after.
  • Commodities-   A thin tape is when a WSJ journal story/ DB group upgrade creates exuberance.  Still, WLT  being DJIM’ fave coal for ages was the biggest beneficiary +6pts, so let it be.. USDA coming up for Ag’s space.
  • Consumer-   Retail group still lagging as TIF’s  guide did nothing except get the stock faded off a good open, no follow through…yesterday..(Retail looked better. Our list includes TIF, PVH, FOSL to trade if this has any follow through). LULU  upped  guidance AMC and it will be interesting to see if it holds its gains tomorrow for the whole group.
  • Miscellaneous-  a nice guide from a Med-tech HTWR, under consideration to add to list
Thursday
Jan132011

...hardly a TD yet

Earlier in the week, Euro markets positively decoupled from sovereign fears.  Today, following a successful ‘Portugal’ auction the US markets finally played some catch up to the Euro markets move of the past 48 hours by breaking a YTD consolidation (20pt range).   The ‘Peripheral’ wary has been diminishing as China, Japan are speculated to be buying into these debts (inc. China into Spain’s on Thursday).  This ‘helping’ participation is why noted here yesterday…” or a bad sovereign bond auctions later this week (shorts likely futile hope)”.    As important or more today was the ‘speculation’ of Monday’s European Finance meeting and an expansion of the bailout fund to get the market going.   A week so far of little economic/ few earnings and so a ‘relief’ catalyst from Europe allowed this market to move easily as it's the only happening around.   The market moved out from ‘inside the 20’, but it’s hardly a touchdown.

Why, not a TD? ...Even though the move was broad with all sectors up, it was more of the same ES/ETF driven move continuing from Tuesday, plus the ‘leaders’ didn’t play along.  (See below in Shadowlist updates).  It was hardly a perfect tape, but with Peripheral worries abating the market can let earnings decide its fate.   The lack of participation today of the ‘winners’ could just be a symptom of this wait game for earnings and nothing else.  All in, need to see a follow through into weeks end.

Shadowlist

  • Momentum/earnings/“winners of ‘10 –   Why more ETF/ES?.  Just look at the performance of leaders,  AAPL AMZN FFIV VMW CRM NFLX…(.5% down to 1.2% up) on a ‘supposed’ breakout day with Nazzy up and SOX up another 2%.
  • Commodities-  Entering the week ….” USDA reports mid-week to possibly feed Ag space some more”.  The report was bullish and fed the stocks linked as most were up between 3-5%, CF MOS AGU LNN POT NEU.  Going back to the ETF-ES trade, if it wasn’t for this Ag’/Fert group there would hardly be any individual stock action anywhere.  Meaning up >1% and/ or down 1%.   As far as coals, despite the CLF  M&A,  the group might have reason to become fatigued  post-ACI  EPS and smaller  coals reporting softness on other exchanges.
  • Financials- the streak continues from December following JPM’s CEO appearance AMC and WFC upgrades.
Friday
Jan142011

Fizz'

“It’s hardly a touchdown’, played out all day as the markets breakout was put under ‘review’ and thus spent the entire day in the red.   A pullback into the ‘red zone’ (1280-1260) was negated (possibly only for today) by the special teams (dip buyers) coming in near the close.   Until earnings flow picks up, the market will remain in conundrum.

Wary -  Today’s was something discussed here recently…”… inflation number this week as it raised concerns of ECB hiking before Q4.”. 01/07.  At that time we were also watching if Bernanke signalled ‘hawkish’.  Today it was Trichet/ECB making a ‘hawkish’ turn and soaring the Euro and making the markets think a hike before Q4. 

As it’s shaping up, earnings season will have many ups and downs.  Although the lack of pre-announcements this Q should signal a better Q4 over Q3,  it’s really a mixed bag so far with CSTR, INFY  big disappointments and a SAP (Software) upside surprise.  Considering, SPX ~1280 has been an excuse to take some profits, (watch for) don’t be surprised to see this pass to stocks and a sell on the news earnings reaction.

Shadowlist

  • Momentum/earnings/“winners of ‘10 –   These linked stocks are waiting on earnings as they are not being chased higher and instead the way to make a point or two off them is to buy an early dip if it presents itself on most days .  INTC  earnings are becoming less relevant as they are behind in the ‘hot’ mobile chip story with NVDA/ARMH  since CES Vegas.   A dinosaur won’t generate excitement off its decent report. CSTR  negative pre-announcement does nothing good for the momo names.
  • Commodities-  Yesterday,  we basically left only the Ag’Fert trade on the table short term post ACI (coal) earnings note. Today, even with a weak USD, commodity linked stocks decoupled.
  • Consumer -  Shadowlist addition: SODA, was the good market fizz today heading 15%/5 pts higher post -alert and is a reminder of why we want to have cash on hand if this was an earnings report to jump on and also why we don’t want to be holding into earnings in fear of a CSTR.