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Entries in TRCR (14)


Bulls, Bears on a dime..

So the market pulled back and gave up pretty much all of the gains it had from yesterday.  It changed on that dime!   We didn't want to be Rah -Rah yesterday, we don't want to be Blah -Blah today.  The question we have is, did we give up all of our gains from yesterday?   Hardly!   Even if you are reckless on a day like today, you still wouldn't have that bad of a day, as long as you traded DJIM stocks.    The point is, don't get caught up with this battle of bulls and bears.   We really don't need to be concerned about the interest rates at this point.    We really don't want to be the casualties at the expense of the institutions' inability to making up their minds.    What we really mean is that since none of us have billions or even multi millions to trade, we should not trade as if we are the market movers and shakers.   They are the Bulls and Bears and we are the Mice coming out for chunks of cheese!.  As long as we stay selective and take profits more often than not, we should all stay intact in this volatility and make some money!  What we should be doing instead is to be smart and be alert, and keep an eye on what stocks are the casualties of the market weakness and what stocks are performing irrelevant of the market action.

Our conclusion for the last few days is that we HAVE TO stick to earning plays, and more recent the better.    If you look at all the DJIM stocks that were green today, most of those are the ones that just recently came out with strong earning report or the ones that came out with good reports today.     Yes, it may just be that simple but it takes lots of discipline to stick to the same winning strategy.  There are hundreds of reports coming out now with stocks beating estimates, raising guidance...we are trying to pick out the ones we think have potential even after a 10% move.   Many times, we are simply trying to challenge ourselves as a trader,  but more importantly, we should be challenging ourselves to stick to a winning trading strategy.    Here's the rundown..

USAP, despite the pullback, we thought today's a good day to add some to our positions.   From previous journals, we've noted that for a couple of days USAP has extended itself and pullback might be inevitable and today we got our wish.   In fact, if it's gonna pullback, we are glad that it pulled back today, as opposed to yesterday.   Why?   It's natural that an extended stock pulls back on a bad index day.   Volume is relatively light and action is reasonable.   We added some back.

CCF,  couple of days ago, we noted that CCF had a better setup than USAP.   It showed everyone that point today.  Market is down big and this stock held up really well and notched a new closing high.   Even though the gain is so tiny, but it's still impressive that it did on a day where the major indices took a tumble ..did we mention a new 52 week high? lol

EBS/VNDA, these two had similar action to USAP and their extended action just could not keep up when the indices getting trounced.  But, before they backed up nice new highs were reached especially on EBS to 17.75.  We are not in a rush to buy back but will wait until they stabilize before re-entering.  If you recall, we exited a portion of VNDA and then returned as recent highs of $30.30's were reached, at this point we alerted to buying back in.  This is similar to what we want from here.  We turned our attention to picking up some fresh EPS stocks instead.

HMIN, ok so the close was not as encouraging as expected.  You've heard that before and seen this stock at work ; lately, so this action is nothing new to any of us...good or bad market.  The intraday move is enough for anyone to make a point or more though.   Basically, we have learned our lessons way too many times with this one.   If there's gain, we'd take it.   Tomorrow is another and different day.  Pullback on this one is just way too common.

RESP VARI,  again some of you may have remembered us saying this phrase from before, "the actual earning report of a company is one thing, more importantly it's the reaction of an earning report is what we care the most"!   We like the action and we followed steps with many others.   Based on the reaction, we assume that there's plenty of ppl who liked their reports.    One thing we've learned from our early trading career is that we just can not disagree with the collective force of ppl, right or wrong.

TRCR, we are definitely putting this one back to the top of our trading list again.    So there's this visibility problem, right?   Well, the problem is that the visibility issue won't be a problem for us next few days or weeks.     We are sure that when the visibility issue comes into play come this summer Q2/Q3, we probably won't even remember what this company does anymore or this Q4.   Again, following the stock action here and we think this one will get its playing time for the next little while.  Yesterday,  we addressed this in the forum on a post regarding TRCR.   Basically the earning will give the stock a base, a new base and traders will play off it..its cheap and float is small.  The CEO also said this Q is a "quantum leap" for the company and Q2/Q3 is seasonally slower, so its about now!!.. The sell off yesterday was the briefingcom chasers, first chasing the juicy plug and then the CC follow up printed...really.. they don't really read..what this created was a possible 2 trades, one yesterday and another today for some nice change. Chances are better this comes to recent highs than the lows printed the last few days.

Again, the key for us is to follow the individual action, not the market action.   You may end up with a basket of funky names or wacky business' on your watchlist, but the bottom line is that they NEED to perform, and that's the only thing we all should care about.


DJIM #5 2007

Well, it's been a pretty decent earning week for us and opportunities were there to grab.    That is, if you didn't get distracted by the index action.    During the earning season,  it's rare for the market to pullback significantly since there are always funds/institutions waiting for their favourite stocks to report.   At the end of an earning season, however, things may be different as there aren't that many things to look forward to for another three months.   By then, interest rate talk, economic number and as well as the seasonality will be big factors dictating the market movement.  Still, there are small caps that periodically surprise with the timing of their releases, so it's almost earning season 12 months a year for us.     Well, that's how we've been viewing things.   

During the earning season, the only thing in our opinion that should be dominating your trade/watch list are the earning plays.    Basically keep an eye on those that have had good potential of releasing strong earning and keep a tag on those unfamiliar names that just reported strong earnings.   Pretty soon, your watchlist will expand from a couple of dozen to literally few dozen stocks.     Again, the point of having this kind of watchlist is to simply making trading decisions easy for you.   Basically, when you have a list full of strong earning stocks, it's just a matter of picking the ones with the best momentum, best charts, best float and best sector.   Fortunately, we are here to give everyone a heads up on what we think are the best so we can all be on the same page and trade the most out of those potential winners.

Here are some of the stocks of interest from past week....

HRBN, so why start off with this BB stock you ask?   Simply put, going toward the end of Friday, this one had the best momentum.    We alerted on the fact that it's going to be listed on Naz on Jan. 31th and given the quick glance of its fundamental and float, we thought it has a very good shot to make some good gains at $10.   Well, an hour later picked it up and we hope some of you have picked up in the low 10s.  We said the yahoo's could spread the story quickly, that's why we wanted to get this out to you first.    Volume on Friday is still a tiny 200k and given the fever Chinese stocks have been getting lately, we think this one is far from being discovered.   Float is 5 mill and co. is profitable for a few quarters in a row.    Not much else you can ask for.    We think it should get some more upside action before and after the Nasdaq listing.

USAP, buy the dips!   This strategy works the best with strong earning play.   If you missed the first run from 39 to 43, getting in at the low 40 is not a bad thing.   We added some on Thursday and now the stock looks better than before.    It showed that there's interest and support when the stock dips.  

CCF,  maybe this one doesn't have the kind of crazy momentum of some of the Chinese stocks but we just like the way it is.   The point is, this is the kind of stock where you don't have to check every single tick and knowing that it'll probably make new high sooner or later.

HMIN, we think this one is definitely getting more and more interest everyday.   The IBD profile we noted Friday before the bell sure helped the cause.  It's no longer a simple Chinese play anymore, it might be an Olympic play as well as IBD noted.    As long as the major trend line does not get violated, we'd buy some on the dips and sell some on strength.    If you have a fast trigger, you can definitely buy on a breakout and make a point or two that way.   This one is still very much in play.

TRCR, we think we have written enough on this one and we are keeping a very close eye on this one.   We'd like to add some in the low 6s but if it doesn't come down, we'd be just as happy adding some on strength.

VARI RESP VTRU ENR,  how we play these earning plays are simple.  We get a starter position in each one and add to the strongest one.   If one position lags, cut it lose and add the funds to the stronger ones.   This actually remind us of a race where you get to bet on all of the horses.  The only difference is that it's rare you lose on any horse since they are all winners to begin with.  Here, we are playing with more institutional money and sometimes the trend is easiest to pick up.  VTRU, besides the EPS number it is also a speculative takeover target, for you home gamers of the dating scene they are of the Lavalife site and others.  lol. $50 are the digits being thrown around.

NWK, this was a play on pre-announced earnings. Usually, they sell off once the numbers are publically released but for whatever reason this one keeps staying strong and the action just seems right.   We're set up here and looking to add more on a break.  It got painted down at the close and some sellers wanted to get out for the weekend, so we'll see what it does early tomorrow before proceeding further.

CCOI, our last alert on it said there were some favorable ramblings on the CLEC sec including TWTC.  TWTC had a very nice Friday and we are looking for more out of CCOI on TWTC heels.

ABM, is back in the picture. One look at the chart shows we could be looking at another test of the highs and a further break.

IPGP, this is looking better on the chart with a close over $26 and as posted by a member in the forum this company is starting to get recognized for its growth earning potential. This is the discovery we talked about...slowly happening.

Bascially in breaking down what we have is quite simple.  Our sector play in Aluminum, we have CENX that is up 5 pts since we touched on the subject on AA's earning.  We have USAP, as our steel play with earning.  So you want to keep an eye on the whole sec action with these.  On the cheap speculative trading side, we have a TRCR and HRBN.  There are new earning plays like RESP, VTRU, ENR to test out and hopefully see them become long term plays.  And there is the old reliable DJIM recycling program working with the HMIN, CCOI's of the trading world.

Just a note... the market is a complex dynamic with uncertainity at every turn.  What we do here is trade on emotion, mostly what our gut(s) is telling us might work or not and we react to it.   We trade when and what we feel gives us the best probability at a successful trade, we don't expect you to have this gut as for many of you its not your full time leave that to us and worry only about proper risk management of your money.  You don't have to be a rocket scientist to see which direction our selections go first,  if anything work on your timing so you can get the most out of a stock.


Big Day!

In our opinion, today is one of the biggest days if not the biggest day for us so far in 2007.    It was almost near perfect except for a couple of stocks but overall effect is very positive.    Index seemed to be going much more wild than most of the stocks on our watchlist but we think it's understandable given the cross currents of a lot of news out there.   Of course, what we care the most at the end are how some of the stocks in our portfolio are doing today.  We will proudly take this day considering there are many a guru and many a forums complaining about the market and the little opportunities for a good trade... A few things for tonight...

HRBN, big volume but a slight disappointing close.   Does that mean this play is completely over?   Far from it!  We think the volume today squarely put this one in the "in play" category.   So why did it not go up with this big volume you ask?   Simple, in terms of percentage, some early birds that supposed to have bought the "Naz Listing Leak" early may be cashing out and maybe some of you after an alert run from just over $10 to over $13 overnight.   We are going to be adding some on pull backs.   Keep in mind, this thing still trades on BB exchange and the market maker there may not be most friendly.   Hopefully when it gets onto the Naz Global Market, some institutions would step in and give it some orderly support. 

CCF,  boy things can turn quickly on this one.   The only disappointing thing is that this one has to shaken out on a day where most of the other DJIM stocks were having a very good day.    Nothing has changed on this one and the battle is close to the 9 ema.   Next couple of days will be the key to see which way it wants to lean.   At this point, we wouldn't be adding as the sell off volume seems a little more excessive and we'd give it a couple of days to show us which way WE ought to be leaning.  The earning did not change overnight, remember that!.  Don't forget how far this one has come in a short period of time and take these moves in stride.  Recently, we said 'she's a bouncin' and it went from 29 to 33's, so be patient.  There is plenty out there!

USAP, perhaps today is the day this stock is showing us that it should be the #1 holder in our portfolio.   One thing is for sure, this stock is definitely getting the kind of exposure CCF lacks.    Even though the trading can be just as volatile, but at least the support is there to push it back up.  We like this one and would add lightly on break outs and aggressively on pull backs.    By the way, when we say adding on a pullback does not necessarily mean we'd be adding on pull backs that have excessive volume that takes out meaningful moving averages, like CCF did today!.  Hopefully, the HMIN move Friday was fresh on your minds as you read the forum blurb on USAP this morning.

TRCR, it felt like it was just a matter of time.  That thought was just echoing behind our heads as we were just talking about it a couple of days ago.   Does today qualify as a breakout?  Hell yeah!  Did we add some on the breakout?  Absolutely.    We'll see how high the momentum takes this stock to. The volume was about 75K when we alerted to a watch for the $6.75/6.80, a 10minute volume chart shows the love it started to receive at those prices as we were hoping for.

MEND CHDX both of these broke out today but both didn't close near the high so we'll group them together.   Remember, CHDX is the volatile beast, so be careful with it.  MEND received a price tgt increase( see forum from premkt)

VTRU VE NWK HMIN ABM MFW ENR RESP ,  we have to say all these behaved quite well given the wild range we had today with the index.  This is a night we have to say the charts speak louder than anything we can say, so we will keeep it short.  There is a collage up of the big day players up in charts.

If you are spread out in a few of these names, hopefully you spread out your profit taking.  As much as we added here and there, we took some off as well in different names.


Post Fed Day

Normally, or many times in the past, the "Post Fed Day" has not always been kind to the market.   This time the market definitely had a change of heart.    When it comes to DJIM stocks, we actually had a much better afternoon than in the morning.   Many of the stocks we are familiar with just simply strengthened up toward the end and some of them had pretty good closing actually.   We'll pick out a few and highlight them...

CCF, perhaps this one is the most surprising one out of the bunch.   It was very ironic that only a couple of days ago that we were worried about its above volume sell off.   Again, we pointed out that we'd give it a couple of days to let it show us which way it wants to lean.   Volume today isn't spectacular but we think it has potential.   We added back some shrs today and no doubt also contributed to some of the rise today.   Nonetheless a new closing high is a new closing high.    What this does is that it actually puts this one back to our top watchlist and we'll again be adding aggressively.   The conclusion is, let the stock show you how strong it is before making up your mind of adding/chasing.   There's no need to be overly optimistic on "the best play" if the action seems uncertain.   If uncertainty occurs, reduce position and sit on the sideline with a little exposure.   Once the danger is over and the trend is clear, then jump back in.    Actually, this is more like the strategy for surviving in the jungle. lol   But in all honesty, trading the market is like surviving in the jungle.  There's really nobody else to look after you other than yourself.   Making kills (plays) just don't come easy when you got so much competition out there.

MFW, it's been up three days in a row now since our alerts on it Monday and of course the little alarm might tick off for a possible pause in this latest runup.    It doesn't mean that we have to go all out and sell it out.   Just be prepared for reversal and when it happens, don't be hesitant to reduce.  Recently after our initial buy in, MFW provided one quick trip down and that has turned out to be one of the best trades recently for us adding in the $26's.

SILC, ok so this one sat there for a couple of days and today broke out on pretty good volume.  There's not much to say other than the fact we added some toward the end.   Why at the end you ask?    If a breakout does not hold till the end, then it may be a fake one and we simply hate any kind of fake break outs.

HRBN, what to expect tomorrow?   Ummm, there's a chance it may follow through and start some momentum.   We are keeping our fingers crossed and if there's any sign of momentum picking up, we'd be adding aggressively.   We are watching it very closely.

TGX, time to let some go today.   We all had a chance after alert at $4, 20+% in 2 days is just too good to ignore.    We reduced most and looking to add on pullbacks.  BT noted in forum some technical analysis on it today.

A note on tech earnings on the Nasdaq, a definite theme has developed that started with AAPL, a few names early this week and then GOOG today.  You can put SWIR in this bunch of sell offs off excellent results.  Last night, we talked of the slows action in AH in the 15's and up only 10% on SWIR..."Maybe we should listen to the CC to find out why this didn't trade higher, but instead we'll let the action in the morning dictate what we do".  The action early showed SWIR had no chance and why.  Simply these techs are selling off the stellar earning news.   As we always say and said last night, wait for the market to dictate what you should do on a earning reaction.  If you do take a position early make sure its a starter, something you can rid of without much of a loss quickly.   At this point, we are carrying between 10-15 positions on any given day and blowing out a small starter position as in SWIR from AH is nothing when you have positive action in so many DJIM stocks.  Cut the laggards and those behaving badly.  If you are one to carry 2-3 positions at a time, you definitely should not be going large into earnings plays until the market shows you what it thinks.   It tells you pretty fast as with GOOG and SWIR last night and today.  We are looking at DLB's earning with all this in mind tomorrow despite how attractive it looked on paper first.

Other stocks showing strength, some more than others.. include ENR ABM GLDN VARI CNS OEH NWK FSYS ALB CENX TRCR ... so most of them are eps plays and all of them you've seen at DJIM over the past 5 months.


DJIM #6 2007

We thought we'd get this out today while we're all in a sober state before Sunday's game..

Now that we are in February,  we'll save you from listening more about USAP CCF MFW our core of big winners in January.  Well, maybe for a few days only!.   Nothing has changed since the last write ups, so glance back if needed.  Instead on Super Bowl weekend,  we'll discuss some new and some neglected DJIM names...

CNS, this asset management co' has taken over our money after the demise of GROW.  We've been in and out before recent earning and have been waiting for a signal to enter after EPS.  The day came on FED Wednesday (Journal) as it attacked the congestion in the low 48's seen after earning.  A quiet Thursday and then a nice move Friday.  We like, We like as a core hold.

ALGN a buy in alert low 16's off earning that knocked out estimates has playing ping pong between $16 and $17. We've never traded this before and are closely watching trying to figure it out.  As of Friday, we think there is a possibility of some action if it gets just a little bit higher. BT has confirmed this with a chart look as well.   If we don't get a move early in the week, we'll cut out if we don't see some momo established again.

AVZA an alert at the bell Friday that we soon bought into.  We're not so thrilled with techs but a turnaround is seen here with this profitable Q and guidance equal to this Q.   A nice pop from 5.50 to 6.50 before tailing off.  We traded some of AVZA and kept some to see if we can make it 4 for 4 on cheapies following on the footsteps of NWK, TRCR TXG!.  Basically, we are using the same strategy on all of these.  Best to see the latest on the TRCR, TXG's first days.

SILC, is an Israeli tech just small enough to avoid the institution rush to sell off after earning.  We are very familiar with SILC having traded it from the 6's and were in no hurray to pick up till Thursday buy in alert end of day.  This company is what you call a comeback story,  the founder brought in a top manager and marketing exec.. Yep..the stock was less than half a buck ...4 or 5 years ago with a market cap less than a million, now its probably over 100mln.  They reported a .20c Q/.49c on the year.  Maybe this becomes an IBD contender?.

T'N'T, talk about cheap thrills'!.... we have to group these cheap DJIM winners together.  First there was NWK we started in the 6's and alerted last Friday before this 10% week.......then there was TRCR and last week a spec buy in alert at $4 of TGX.  We noted Thursday on TGX and taking profits with a quick 20% in a week,  we did the same on TRCR again Friday which we started at $6'ish and alerted again to look for action in $6.70's last week.    We are looking at these day to day now with bigger pieces being sold.  There is nothing wrong on the fundamental side but we feel they are getting a bit extended short term.  A nice pullback or two, we wouldn't mind in a few of these after the 20-40% moves.

We got the cheap cornered,  but what we really like most is the classy ones to hold tight.  They are expensive in many a traders eyes as some just can't see past a under $10 stock.   We love these types.  We bought the starters in ENR at 83's, the VARI 52's, the VTRU $43's and have been adding along the way.   These have produced nice charts since entry and returns of 3-8% between them quietly.  We 've sold most of the VTRU the last few days after 4pts in 7/8 trading days but we'll look to buy back in if NASD internet names get some love.   If the market continues to go our way, we expect the institutions to want these types of companies on their books and that's why we consider them nice longer term hold potential.   RESP had the best start but now is lagging the bunch.

OEH , the lux lodging stocks have throwing up good numbers (HLT HOT), eventually this hits secondary names and one we started in again is OEH as revenues per available room look to be higher in '07.  If the institutions do their homework, they'll likely want to hold this one into earning this month.  Actually, this one has so much institutional interest(96%) already it might allow them to walk it up.  We are looking for this type of discovery here.  A slow and steady move into earning off these new highs.  If this 96% ownership is too much or the price is a little expensive have a look at..MHGC

MHGC trades under $20 and we started a position late Friday.  Think Super Bowl, think The Delano and then you'll see what MHGC is about.  The chart looks jus' fine and the 25mln float is jus' fine.

It's pretty easy to break up the trading stocks between those you want to hold over the longer term. We have the core which now includes CNS added to CCF USAP MFW,  the last 3 may need to rest here and there as January has been nice to them and us all.  The cheapies are to trade NWK TRCR TGX, you can throw in HRBN AVZA even ALGN till we see a trend or not.  Plus, we have the not so volatile more expensive names such as the ENR VARI VTRU VE.  There is a fave steel play USAP, a fave aluminum play CENX.  A fave oil play in the steady MTRX.. if you want to carry such, a fave Russian telco in GLDN, a potential lux lodging play in MHGC OEH.   Basically there is something for all types of traders/investors.   We're not throwing out the SWIR's out of sight, instead we'll be digging for these types that are not getting love off earning as potential plays in the very near future.


Dow 13K?

Who really cares?   However, the CNBC show has to go on and "intelligent" topic has to be discussed in order to attract viewership.   In all honesty, those who trade stocks for a living don't really have much of a choice but having this CNBC on in case we miss some important headline.   Ok, enough rant here!      Market has once gain showed its inability to march forward and much of the action came from the smallcap land.  With a 91bln bank deal overseas leading the usual Monday activity, we expected more follow through today.  This is a little bit early to talk about but we are about a few weeks away when the seasonality factor kicks in.    Sell in May and go Away!    Ok, so for those members who have billions of dollars at stake, don't blame us that we didn't warn you.  lol   For the rest of us, life goes on and we will adjust to whatever the market environment when changes happen.  There are a few interesting setups today and we are going to go through each one of them....

KRSL,  this one gave us a very profitable trade a couple of months ago and we never take it off our watchlist.  It merely sits in the back of the class until it decides to stand up one day ann makes itself  noticed.    We noticed it earlier today off the news that the co. received a contract(MOU) from UTX.   This is essentially the first good news we've heard from the co. since it reported its last earning.    We'll take it.  It's good to know they will continue to be busy going forward.  The reasons for a move has been summed up in the alert, so we are not going to repeat here.   One thing we have to point out that this one trades very thinly and it can go up as quickly as it can go down.    We got in the $23s and will act accordingly.    Chasing blindly without a plan is definitely not a good idea with a stock like this one.

TRCR, this one reported earning after the close and essentially this is the best quarter for this co.   It beat year over year, also up nicely sequentially.   This one has had pretty steady action since the last report so there's a good chance that it will continue the same pattern.   Although there's no exact telling how the stock will behave tomorrow but based on the AH action, making a new high is not out of the cards for this one soon.  We might actually keep an ear on the CC late morning, or will just watch the action at that time to possibly make another move. 

SILC,  we are going to monitor this one really closely tomorrow because there's potentially a chance for this one to break out.    We believe this is also due to the pre-earning run and eps date is 25th of this month.  Hey, we got one from DXPE Friday and today from USAP, so why not the SILC'ster!

There have been quite a few names that made some nice moves today..SYNL MTOX CYNO USAP. A few of them are the quiet types which include TNH GLDN SCHN GMRK ROS.  We are glad that there's enough action out there despite the weakness from the major indices.

...lets's see what the chips can bring tomorrow off a couple of good reports AH


Big Point Gainers...

Yes, the good earning plays are being rewarded with big points lately.   It seems you only have to beat just enough and raise the guidance(not necessarily required) just enough to be rewarded a big push on your earning day.    We love it, and this kind of phenomenon brings back memories of the golden days.    Alright,  so the strategy out there is to catch some of these big gainers once it's confirmed that people "like" their report.     How can you tell?    We figured if by 10 a.m.the stock is still holding up well, we'd be start looking for entry point there.   This may very well mean that we have missed the "best" entry price of the day, but it does ensure us that any entry price we enter would give us that much more probability that we can come out on top.   Why?   The big point gainer theory!    Of course, you still have to trade those stocks with that kind of potential.    If one of the earning plays did not give you a huge run-up, perhaps trying a few of them would work out better.    Keep in mind, we are playing the earnings play here, and these aren't the phase 3 stocks or other type of stories where the stories may only last as long as the time to chew down a snicker bar.     With a earning play, even if you get in at high on earing day, there's still a very high probability that stock continues higher throughout the following days if not weeks..if the market holds up, of course.

Bottom line, trading earnings play (after the earning announcement) is a rather conservative yet highly effective method to trade.   It can also be highly profitable if you trade mostly small caps like we do.    Four times a year, with each earning season lasting a month or two, this would be enough to make it a full time job.  With so many opportunities so far the past week, it just proves in our minds there is no reason to hold through and into the earnings call.  We have great expectations of the DXPE, SYNL, BW, BTJ's to announce great reports after trading them for months , if not already years....But this does not mean we want or will sleep with them the night before they give out their numbers/ guidance.  We practise, 'safe trade' around here, you might say on earning day.

Some plays today...

ALGN VDSI,  we group these two because they both shot up off their respective earning reports.    Volume was great for both and both pretty much spent most of their days flat lining until later on.    We alerted these earlier today and we liked the way they closed.   It wouldn't surprise us that they get some good follow through tomorrow and possibly into next week for some nice gains.

SVVS SSYS WST, these ones are much like the ones above and acted well off their earning reports.    We had to buy these because you never know which one of these will become a great runner.    What we do is keep a close eye on the strength of each one and add/reduce according to their action.    Basically, even for a small size, we just can't afford not to play them.  At todays pace , plus with the usual suspects rocking SYNL DXPE BTJ, we don't have time to do much if any DD on these new names.  We are trading the #'s and action.  We consider them secondary plays at this time and will choose the best in the days ahead to go forward with.

BTJ DXPE, wow these two had great follow through today and especially BTJ.    This is essentially pure momentum at work and we won't argue nor mess with them.

SYNL TRCR,  both notched a new closing high and in the case of SYNL, momentum seems to be really high and we are curious to see how high it goes before it stalls.  The last 4 are definitely the primary earning plays here.

PAE, wow we didn't even think this could be such a huge gainer(% wise) after we alerted it days back.   Of course, Briefing helped our cause but nonetheless the company PR machine is at work. Today, a deal with Sony Entertainment got the name out further. This is just getting too impressive and we'll keep trading it even after selling a chunk off this week.

IDSA,  it might be too cute to think that this one can get onto the IBD100 list with just 2 days left.   Well, technically, it's still possible given the float of the stock and volatile nature of this beast.    What we like about this one is the fact that the sector it belongs in is very hot and coupled with the general rosiness of this market, it's just not unnatural to run this one higher.   It does have good enough IBD number to get into the top 50 at least and we feel it's just a matter of time before it gets added to IBD100 list, provided that it can consolidate around this level.

Apr282007 still blooming in April....big gains in CMI TRCR PAE AVNR

The streak of big gainers initiated by has continued into the final days of April.   Potential 15%, 30% 40%, 60%+ moves were just enjoyed in the last 2 weeks and are listed below.

These plays are up to the minute "leads' to members available on our site or via email delivery.  These are stocks we are closely watching for a trade, a heads up of sorts or ones we have just bought.  We only send out 1-3 Alerts-Comments a day, some days this includes some of our plays for a next day move.  We do not send endless picks, news bits on stocks with the hope you might hit on one and then put up those winners in public.   We say what we buy real time , simply we tell you what is on our trading plate and provide the trade methodology on these plays in the evening.  Simple and concise.

Despite the recent worry of many that the market was showing signs of trouble because the mid-small caps were not participating, we stuck to our guns!. "As far as we are concerned, if you come to the party led by the big need to bring a 'wingman' or two.  Our wingman is our smaller caps.   Simply, if the large caps continue on with earnings and keep going higher...the small cap wingman will have to come out and help out.. so all can play.  One can't work without the other!".  This week we got the mid-small caps joining the party as expected at!.

First half of April was highlighted by some big gainers JSDA, TSL, UXG and more.   

See these plays alerted to our readers. .   

Well, it's not only about getting the ' move' at DJIM, it is about getting out safely with your profits in tow.  We capitalized on those plays and alerted our leaving those momentum plays near the TOP.  The pullback has occurred and today JSDA sits 30% from our exit.   Here at DJIM, we just go to the next play and recycle the names when we feel we they are ready for another move..UP!

``We've blown out our positions in JSDA 30+, TSL 64+, traded some JASO and blew it out``Apr 16, 2007 at 10:30AM

``Despite the emotional feeling that these momentum runners TSL JSDA JASO can pull another 15% run tomorrow, we feel the odds favours a pullback here.....``Apr 16, 2007 at 03:34PM
So how did we finish up April with our members... here are a few of the winners we shared in!.  But that`s just part of the winners, you`ll find inside
CMI- Cummins Inc
``CMI  off $91's at 8:40 and now getting a few a bids.. still only 22k traded...looking for a nice morning open.``Apr 27, 2007 at 09:03AM-
Yes, less than 30 k was traded before we alerted in the low $90`s.  Just after 10am it hit $107+ or 15% off our note looking for a nice morning open. 15.6 MLN shares traded making  CMI one the most active and talked about stocks on the NYSE stock yesterday.
AVNR- Avanir Pharmaceuticals
``we think this a $2 dollar ticket even in mid 4's. 20% short interest and previous prices in '06 of this stock on this drug make it worth a spec. trade ``.  Apr 18, 2007 at 01:55PM
Every night we update our trades-play list for the next trading day. Wednesday, April 18, 2007 - Note on AVNR trade.
The next day AVNR exploded to nearly $7 and a potential 40%+ early in the morning.
``The play we are referring to today is AVNR.     We looked at the cause early on today and it's obvious that it had potential.    The rest of the time we just spend looking at the action.   100%-200%, who cares.  If a stock is up 100%, it is easier for it to go 25% higher with momo than if you start with a stock at 1% gain and try to get 25% with no momo.  When dealing with a play like this one that gaps up initially in the morning, it's just too dangerous for us to jump in big right away unless we get a good price in pre-market.   If we hadn't, then there's simply too much risk entering a position right at the beginning of the day with a sizeable portion.  Or... Simply start with a small starter to keep track of, nothing that would sting you if it turns against you.   How we approach it is that we usually wait till early afternoon to see if it has a chance to take out the intraday high.   Once it did, it's almost a given to follow through with a trade for a quick flip.  A quick flip, not a quick scalp.  We are talking squeezing 10-20% out of a flip.   If the momentum is strong, we can flip it a few times provided the 5 min. chart stays on an uptrend.    Toward the end, we'd look for signs if the stock can close near the high or not.   Usually when a stock closes near the high on this kind of extreme volume, it follows through even higher the next day.   Is this guaranteed?  No!  The probability is just high in this case.   So since trading is all about getting the right probability, we bought enough toward the end to look for a good follow through tomorrow. ``
PAE- Peace Arch Ent Grp-   Almost 60% in 8 trading days
In our weekend edition, we recently profiled a litle known micro cap. Our concentration at DJIM is earnings, IBD, momentum plays and this one fit even if it was only opening at $1.70 the next day. It had earnings and last week was profiled by to help out the cause of DJIM members already holding a position in PAE.

Sunday, April 15, 2007 at 02:56PM-  DJIM Journal Week 16

PAE,  came out with earning late Friday.  It reported .06 vs. (-0.04) +250% EPS change,95 RS, following a break even Q with revenue over20mln+11m in the previous Q.  It closed at $1.65 and has market cap in the 50's mln. Even if you take out a 1 mln legal gift, they still made over a 1.2 mln in net and are now profitable.   Usually a stock turning the corner on profitability gets some attention sooner than later.  It actually got into IBD's top earning announcements column and might get a look Monday or simply crawl slowly upwards from here.   It can be a complete bore or its numbers and float and price will get some cash into.  We'll watch early, you never know...


TRCR- Transcend Services Inc, was first a DJIM alert in January. Last week we were alerting again at $11.40`s as a buy in.

TRCR hit a high of $14.60`s Friday.  Nearly 30% in 4 trading days.

At, we are there in the pre market with a play like CMI and after hours with a recent buy in at TRCR

Apr 23, 2007 at 04:27PM

TRCR- has put in even a better Q than when we played it last Q. .15C. CC is at 11am , so plenty of time to get noticed.
growth in sequential eps(.02/.03/.04/.09 and now .15c Q)
1st revenue Q over 10mln. Excellent yoy # and sequentially they did better.   took a starter
See preview section 2006 for the layout inside  (navigation bar to the left).  See our Archives for the plays enjoyed in `06.
To join, use the SUBSCRIBE link. We will have you up and running within hours to enjoy the rest of this fantastic earning season!
Happy Trading!

DJIM #18 2007

NUMBERS, NUMBERS...there's the ECO. which include numbers of the crumbling USD, the poor GDP# number released Friday, the poor housing #'s and then there are the EPS numbers which are fueling the market with money that does not want to be left out of a bullish party.  Which numbers are we concerned about?.   The answer is easy as hot money keeps flooding the market, everyone is chasing the EPS numbers of the giants and now the more speculative, smaller caps instead of worrying about all the eco numbers and what they could be pointing to.  If we had millions, billions maybe we'd be concerned about what the eco numbers are pointing to and that includes slower growth/EPS numbers in Q2 and beyond, instead our goal as always is to capitalize on what we are given today, tomorrow and taking advantage of it fully. Go hard or go home is the premise here recently. You will not need to go hard or stress later in the year, instead you might go on a extended vacation if you are capitalizing on this bull run we are experiencing.  Simply, companies which are producing results, giving a good outlook are being rewarded big time. We can't ask for anything more as this is DJIM's niche!...So enough of the banter, lets get the nitty and gritty and that is the stocks we have our eyes and hands on..

IDSA, we discussed the possibilities of this beast Wednesday night and Thursday we all had a chance to accumulate in the $12's. We are patient and wanted IDSA to maintain some integrity by not finishing the day over $15 and then be prone to a sell off Monday if it was included in IBD so soon.  When we started buying Thursday, all we had hoped for was a decent finish in the $14's come Friday.  IDSA did turn out to be fun, even if an hour or two before we thought on Friday and made a couple of tries at and over $15.  We anticipated a roadblock of sorts at 15, it wasn't major but you have to understand many were happy to get out here knowing many are anticipating this level.  We did some selling in this area as well, 20%+ in a few days was sufficient for now.  Don't forget many got in even lower Wednesday on the results and were willing to sell around $15 for even larger gains.  We are glad to buy any dips and now look forward to IDSA having 5 full days of trading to rock $15 and beyond. The best it could have done Friday was finish in the $15's, but with a week to do some damage we think it has a better chance to go into the high teens in a somewhat orderly manner.

TO, easy symbol, brutal name Tech/ Ops Sevcon..hey but with a 2.2mln float and nice earning you could call yourself whatever you want!. This one has a string of EPS somewhat similar to TRCR with the last being in the mid-to high teens.  It also just put in it's first 10 mln revenue Q like TRCR. There is also 15% institution ownership with a few names we are familiar amongst the holders. This gives this unknown company some respectability. We feel with fast money back in the market chasing an IDSA or two, a play like TO should get some interest in the week ahead. You don't if you don't try!

CMI, guess we'll look at this again but after giving a ride from low $90's to $107 off the opening bell, you'd have to think you are not going to match that any time soon.  So why bother going back right away!. The co' beat expectations and gave a rosy outlook.  That was the spark to ignite what we thought would be a nice short covering in the morning.  As we noted in the forum that morning...more goes into finding a play than the headline numbers in many cases.  It would be too easy if all companies with excellent numbers did the same thing.  CMI had a big run recently due to M&A rumors, these rumors evaporate most of the time and this idea brings in shorts expecting the stock to come back to reality.   Nothing like a kick ass report to get them covering in a hurry.  This was the idea behind the trade for a early morning move.  Anyways this was exciting and you could put this one with the MFW's huge day recently when we gave out a play with something like 20-40k volume before it exploded to record volume and big quick gains.  If you're not pocketing these types of gifts and moving on or recognizing them as an opportunity to jump in as soon as huge momo comes in.... something is wrong.  Also, if you're still scared to buy expensive stocks get over it.  These expensive stocks present incredible opportunities.

VSEA, a semi beat by 3c and guided higher. Not big fans of Semis here for the longest time, but with market the way it is we need to diversify some and see what the bigger names are capable of.  Besides, this one was a nice chart heading into earnings and this weekend moved to #4 on IBD. A few firms already reit it a buy and boosted price tgts.. We bot late, low 69's.

MFW, a familiar name we bot back Friday. It kinda pissed as off as we only had a few shares and were ready to add for days $60-62 and now had to deal with a sipke at the open to as high as $68. least we know the Perelman money was smarter than us by picking up $12mln at $60. We like this kind of news and bot mid day off the pullback.

TRCR , quite the nice run in 4 days. We said we'd be looking to sell some if it reached the 14 area. Friday it was 3 plus points over our alert on it and we booked some profits into the weekend.  Nothing wrong here, just the right thing to do. We'll be back.

SYNL ,what can we say about the last 6 trading days, except its a pretty thing. We're all probably enjoying this move.

DXPE, was a casualty Friday but you don't need to be one.  Past knowledge of DXPE volatility puts this move into perspective. It's nothing but profit taking off a 8 point move. One way you might avoid more damage than you need to is set a mental stop in the area of the previous days long stick around that days low and or open. This is not a hard rule but if you had this point in your head it might have saved you a few points Friday. For us as full time traders it is of course easier to exit, if you can't deal with these types moves it is best you stay away...or you just accept them if you like the story and stick with it through the bumps in the road.

A few names for the pillow are acting well, past and present....VE hit 83, HTC near $24, CPY exploded Friday to 60's. These stocks have never seen RED, as in lower than our initial DJIM buy in's ( VE-$68,HTC-$17, CPY-$43) besides returning 20%-40% profits in months.   You can't beat that for a safe crawler. We try to give a bit of everything to satisfy all tastes.

One discussed in the forum early this week kept going creeping up and that is TWIN. ...... Remember SYNL EML were these pillow stocks when first intro'd here.  We can't discuss these much as they trade so thinly day after day, but for those of you with a longer term view on some of your positions these have been or are great stocks so far for under the pillow. An extra screener for these types is best to keep track and visit.  ABM, has pulled off a NCH and a nice weekly chart as well.


Market pulls itself up...

DEFIBRILLATOR anyone?. We're thinking of having one on hand for the new members..;)...Those that have been with us and trading these types know there is no great reward without a little heart stopping ..In regards to the market tone, if we get scared, we'll tell you as we always have by issuing an alert like in February. Right now everyone is trying to say the market is over bought and bringing in the seasonality factor to scare you out of your positions.  If they are right.....FINALLY!.....and they've been trying for months, we'll gladly go into cash and withstand the punishment others might start to feel while being very selective in our plays.   As far as we are concerned, we go day by day and a pullback eg. on the NASD to 2500 level would be nothing but the perfect retracement to go higher.  If this level breaks down on volume, we might be issuing that alert.  Also, this is earning time and we will have new plays to come even/ if in the worst of times in the next month or so. 

On to today...

It's actually refreshing to see that market did the opposite of what it did yesterday.    That is, instead of turning lower, market managed to turn green later on in the afternoon.     Again, we can't really draw much conclusion from this move.    It's actually been a very mixed day, when it comes to our DJIM stocks.   Some stocks were hit earlier but managed to reverse and closed well but a couple of stocks did not seem to be affected by this market, one way or the other.     We are keeping our eyes on all of our recent earning plays and will decide to see what sort of action we'd take on them next few days.  

TRCR, this one actually bucked the trend earlier and stayed strong throughout the day.   The action today actually surprised us a little b/c we didn't expect fast momentum to come from this one out of all of the plays we'd covered last few days.  lol    We are not complaining though.   However, it remaines to be seen if it can get some serious momentum.    We do prefer a slower and steadier move with this one though. We sold most the other day and are only trading it at this point when a possible move is seen.

NGA, wow this one is volatile, to say the least.    We do like the ending action though.   Basically, it gives confidence that people are still very much into this one.   Hopefully this one consolidates a little here and forms a strong base so we get to much higher prices.

IDSA, is another that held up well today in the early going. Volume has been low the last couple of days while holding these levels. A good sign as potential sellers seem to want to stick around and see if this makes a run late in the week for IBD.  It won't take much to push it from this range over the hump.  Notice the last 3 days on chart, you can almost draw a perfect triangle > with today's close at 13.50 right in the middle.  Basically, the range got tighter today and something has to give.   A few of the things mentioned above makes us think this will go higher this week.

ALGN, this one battled back from yesterday's weakness and it's very close to a new high.    We are looking to see if some of the other earning play can pull a similar move within the next few days. Hey, if you got a think for teeth, there is ADPI today.  We like but want to see what the secondary earnings names we've mentioned have in them first.

BTJ, this one is being like btj.   We just need a strong stomach when it comes to dealing with its moves. lol.   We discussed DXPE the other night, BTJ is no different and same rules apply.  If you are starting a position the last few days, you are only trading it and should be jumping further in these moves. 5 pts off low today.  If you bought the earnings and like the story heading into the summer, stay strong....if it's not in you....move on.

The last few days we've had some intraday swings in the market, potential plays either don't materialize like yesterday or some get more juice like CPY did take them as what they are and that is leads, keeping in mind the overall market conditions.  Simply the chance of a stock breaking out as it nears a playable area is thrown out the window (like SSVS approaching recent highs), if the market panics and reverses as we saw yesterday.

CPY, Sunday we brought it up because it exploded Friday to new highs.  Today you saw the significance of updating your screeners with stocks near highs.  Today's range was 57.51 to 66.62 on volume surpassing Fridays...9 potential pts worth to play inside of. This is a lead that materialized at 2pm as it popped another 3 pts after our note on it.  Something is up here, we don't know what but it is bringing in momentum.  We're trading it in small sizes today. Speculation can die off quickly so care is needed here.



Shorts Killer...

This market has been all over the Shorts lately.   Unless, of course, that you were short DNDN.    Ok, this is probably the last time we'd ever mention DNDN.   The long and short of it is,  the play is over and it's time to move on, regardless whether you are sitting on a loss or a overall profit from your previous trade leads here.   It's the last trade that only matters, no averaging stuff to give yourself an excuse to hold on.  We played it twice at DJIM, we doubt there will be a 3rd soon.  . On to what matters, we basically had a great day.   Fed meeting may provided a spin for this market in terms of volatility, but overall, most of the DJIM stocks that have showed strength last couple of days did extremely well today.     This time around, and just like all the other time around, it's all about earnings here.    To us, earning is the primary if not the only driving force of our strategy.    Figuring out entry/exit  points is one thing, but the ability to pick out outstanding earnings play with great momentum potential is the root of our approach.    Hopefully, by the end of this earnings quarter, many of you would have a pretty good idea what we do here on a daily basis.     Getting involved with the right group of traders that know what they are doing is one thing, trading to get more experienced is even more important.    

Still...besides all the emails we get during the day, including, ' great call' for an NGA, LXU, FWLT recently which we thank you for.  But,  there are still 1/10 that we can't understand.   If you follow into our stocks, why do you not exit and lock in nice gains when there to be had?.   Greed?.  Just today before the open,  we received one on IDSA and what we think now "as I have not sold all?".   Didn't we set out everything late last week and the potential for disappointment and other alerts, last being when the stock was $15.5 on Friday?.   The other ironically from last night on DNDN..." might be $50 after approval..what you think"?..  OMG,  its a speculative ticket  'short ride' every time we've mentioned it.   We gave our exits dang it. learn this member was holding 1k of DNDN later at 17+.  We had a recent hold into GROW's earning as well from a long time member. ARGHHH!!.

Guys..sorry but maybe to see your mistakes in bright lights here will stop the insanity!!. We honestly care, especially after getting to know some of you over time.

It's tough to pick out the  play to write about first since there are too many good ones...   ok lets start with..

FWLT, earning sells the story and momentum pays the traders.     By the time this thing moves over 7 or 8 points, there's not even any point going over the earning report anymore.   Why you ask?   Many traders may put the emphasis on the actually earing number, the quality of earning etc., what they often forget is that it's the collective action of those involved in TRADING this thing that makes the difference.    For us, we had a feeling that this one has good number, but we needed confirmation from the "big boys" to confirm our feeling.    When they go chase, we tag along!  This was the premise behind the 2nd note on FWLT today.  It went off like magic, you can see it gaining steam on every small pullback around $80-$81.   We were so ready, hopefully we prepared you and you enjoyed the rocket launch from 80 to 88.  It may sound surprisingly simple but it does take a lot of trading to get used to the idea of "your buy may very well give this stock a new high".  

CROX, this is just inevitable.   Provided that the market is rocking all around, we still think this one is going much higher.   Read up on our notes here, hell use the new search available to you to find it;).   In a way, this one reminds us of HANS in its prime days in some ways.    We added some late around our 'juice ' alert and it finished beautifully with a nch in place.

NGA, it feels like this IBD100 listing is looking more and more like a done deal, based on its trading.   With two days left till the end of the trading week, we think the downside is limited right here.    Yes, a pullback is definitely possible tomorrow or even on Friday.   In our opinion, any pullback should be bought.

LXU, again, we'd like to use our conservative approach and would like to see a pullback or consolidation around here after the stock climbed from out 18.70ish alert to nearly $21 today.   To us, it never hurts to underestimate the potential of a run-up rather than overestimate it.   What this does is that you are always setting yourself for good surprises.  If this stock continues its leg up with strong volume, so be it and we'd just play along.     However, we aren't buying it like the way we did when it was in the $18s, for now.

TRCR,  don't let the big point gainers make you forget about the little guys.   Your eyes may be glued to the FWLT of the trading world but the little ones can also make up for very nice gains if you time it right.    We noticed the set-up yesterday and today's just the confirmation breakout.   We added some and looking for more.

TRT, what may caused the strong action today may be the fact that people are looking for a change in IBD rating after its earning report.   Yes, this IBD thing never gets old. lol     We got a starter and will look closely for any further development.  The report itself is nothing to write home about..not 30% worth of stamps. The first trades premkt were $19.50 up 25%, a little to expensive for our tastes and not something we'd chase till we see what regular trading hours bring.  Finished up just over 30%.   In the end FLWT which was up 7% premkt provided  better upside as we thought it might in our pre-market note.  Maybe not so much better % wise, but definitely safer and much more liquid to go big $ with momentum.   You could not afford to chance and therefore do the sizes in TRT that you could have done with FWLT today.  As traders this is primary consideration when wanting to go in 'super size me' lots.

There are quite a few recent stocks that made new highs today, we are trading. These recent mentions from Journal or via trading members in our forum include SPAN TNH HAYN SCHN RS FTK EDU   We're still waiting on NTLS.

An incredible day from our DJIM stocks on a day the DOW +54 and the NASD +4.59.  Who outperformed who?



'Breakdown....Takedown....Everybody wants into the crowded line... Breakdown....Takedown...You're busted...Let down..your guard..blah blah're busted!".  Yeah, we're humming a guys tune who probably already had a beard when we born!.... but hey, what's the ruckus today?..We still in the loop.  Cheer up, it's not the end of the world!.   You know what was looking like the end of the world?....

The market being up something like 24 of 28 days!!.   What percentage is that?.   Sure , ain't Shaq's free throw percentage!.  The point is simple, what the "Disney" did you expect to happen sooner than later as we ran the market higher and higher.  Today should not be a shock to any of us. If you've ridden the DJIM plays recently, you are probably safely out by today anyway on most positions with nice gains..   But seriously, if the market shakedown scared you today, you still had a perfect storm to exit with gains in tow today. say?

Let's see DOW down 147, NASDAQ down 43.   What really stunk the DJIM joint out?    Well, percentage wise it was NGA!.    But, we've all expected and actually welcomed a decent fall after this 40% run with DJIM hands all over it..   This was going to happen, no matter if the market got smacked or not today.   NGA was prime for it.   Besides the NGA bit,   there was not much damage to anything you might be holding off DJIM. You still could walk away today all in one piece if that's your choice.

FWLT  TNH  SPAN  CPY  FTK  IDSA  FSLR  KRSL  ADPI  are some recent DJIM names traded that managed to post green end of day.  Tomorrow..all these can get the smackdown and other barely reds like TRCR  LXU  MA  HAYN  NTLS (1% or lower) might as well.    What you had today is exit opportunities to leave with almost all of your recent gains in these names.   The next day you might not!.     Be it tomorrow or any other time in the market, if you survive one might not the next if the slide continues.    What we hate is to be part of any domino effect, so today we did some selling into this orderly action of our closely followed/held stocks.  We don't want to blow the past months of good work out the window.   Safe than sorry heading into a weekend at this point.   Still...there was no action in any DJIM recent play that money screamed get me out of! .  We like the group we are covering at this time and will monitor closely as always.

As full time traders, we look to end of day for some fire sales on our favorite winners lately.  We've talked about buying a pullback for days on NGA...last night the last.    What we said today in the forum as it traded $13.80-14.00 from it's highs, is the market conditions today basically stamped out a chance for a orderly pullback and buy possibility that we expected from it before weeks close.   If the market (NASD) is down 20 points,  we do not know if panic will set in on any individual stock and take it down further.   We can't buy such a fresh pullback as NGA hung around $14 at 2pm!.   As a trader member pointed out minutes later, "would rather buy a pullback within the context of a stronger market day... Opportunities are made up easier than losses.".    Minutes later NGA crumbled to 13.20.   So how do you know when a pullback is sufficient? it the one down to $13-8-14.00 or will there be another as later today to 13.20?....We simply don't know and we're not going to guess at $14 with a falling market.    Basically, why play with fire as the market starts to crisp and burn.   Simply, we wait till end of day to decide if we want any.   We do it with strong stocks to buy in or add more and this is still the way we go if considering to recycle a recent big winner on a dip.   End of day.    Yes, we picked up small amounts of LXU, NGA  end of day.  This is nothing in size to when we were playing these recently.  We all should have enjoyed these 2 runs, we are not blowing it away with a substantial position now on a dip in a falling market today.    If any sign of momentum comes Friday in NGA, we'll be there in sizes again.    Call it another starter to monitor today, that's all!.   Still, the issue with NGA should not be if it catches a pullback and heads to $15 tomorrow.  What's 13s-low 14's to 15's at this point when the play has been here since a premkt alert at 9+ and soon after buy in low $10's. If you won big from low 10's already, what's the rush now?. Let it sink in and let it show a definite change in trend.  Is this a possible secondary leg coming up?.   Was this the retracement we were waiting for?.   We'll know soon enough (Friday).  We just went through IDSA remember, so you know what can happen.  What it might do at /if $15+ is a whole new different leg and we'll decide then how to approach it.

For those new here, our Aert-Comments are either our buy-ins or leads we are considering for a buy.  Today was a nice combo to an alert from Monday on FRPT to go with our buy in alert on SPAR today.  Both had stellar days in a bad market and were involved in the same contract.  Yeah looks like Cramer gave a hand to our pick ups again today.   We were oblivious to who or what or why...we just saw momentum happen at different times today for these names.  The idea was here Monday following the Armor Holding M&A activity for a look at  FRPT with its chart, today it paid off as FRPT and the company making the chassis (SPAR) for it all won. SPAR last trades at 31.60-32 AH. 



Carnage in the far east...concentrated

Fortunately, the damage in Shanghai did not spill over to North America.  On the contrary, we actually had a pretty good day for a lazy summer session and many DJIM type of stocks were particularly shiny today.   If the market was to get a shake, you'd have seen the beginning premarket.  Nothing of that sort happened as the FXI stayed calm and a few Chinese stocks were actually green. Instead of any housecleaning, we were buying most of the day.  Does today's action mean it's a sign of things to come?   We'd like to hope so but we aren't wagering all of our eggs in anticipating anything.    Basically, our game plan is not to get too over our heads in worrying about the big market movement, but rather, focus on individual plays and sectors that are attracting hot and momentum money.    Afterall, we are not economists that emphasize on theory which goes into the far future but we are traders that focus on the live battlefield level action day in and day out.    There are quite a few interesting plays today, so we are not going to waste anymore time and just go right into them...

TBSI, this is a play that we have been involved in the last couple of weeks or so.    What we really liked about this play is its text book style of action.   Sure, it doesn't have the heart pounding NOVC like of action but this one gave us the kind of setup that most traders would be happy for.    This one built a beautiful flag pattern last little while and it shot up today and closed near the high, with some good volume.    This is the kind of play we love b/c not only it gave us enough time to get in during the setup, but we are also able to built up a comfortable position that mattered in a very controlled, conservative, and highly probable way. A nice 5-6% day.

KMGB, this one came to our attention before the market opened and we immediately put it on our watchlist.  We actually put this one up back in 2005 and it doubled by the next morning.  That was its first stellar EPS Q.  Today it came out with earning that not only beat the analyst's estimate by a nice margin, but looked very good year over year, and sequentially, by our book.    After further checking its IBD number (92 98 now), we just couldn't help but start buying up shares.    Now, every once in a while you get a high calibre, high momentum IBD play that gets lots of traders' attention and we think this one is a very good candidate, after NGA that is.

ATLS AHD, a few weeks ago ATLS came on our radar after it acquired some assets and made a nice move. On the weekend, we had put AHD on our watch for the week because the chart made a NCH and was related to ATLS.  Before the open this all came together in a different way, the idea behind these names and a trade on news.  ATLS, which owns partner units of AHD announced the APL (Atlas Pipeline, LP), had made agreements to acquire assets of Anadarko and then Atlas Pipeline would distribute $$ per limited partner unit and increase distribution....LOL. Confused?. Hell yeah and all this doesn't mean anything to us!.  All we know is this was another 1 billion asset deal that was liked once, so why shouldn't it be once again. The fact the charts were prime and the trading action called for an entry in our book.

LPHI, this one definitely caught some wild fire after it guided up intraday. Early this year, we put this one up after a good EPS Q to look at. We wondered if a life settlement stock can actually get that sexy look.  It didn't for traders, but quietly it had almost doubled since.  We really couldn't speculate the true effect today until after the initial excitement settled down. This one can have some whacky spreads.  When it looked like there isn't any sign of pullback, basically there's only one place to go and that is up.   We are also trading this one aggressively. Co sees Q1 EPS to be approx $0.49 per share vs $0.11 single analyst est compared with earnings of $0.05 per share for the same period last year. The co also expects Q1 revs to be approx $17.5 mln vs $8.4 mln single analyst est compared with revenues of approx $6 mln last year.

TNH, after about three weeks of consolidation, we think this one is ready to break out again or at least test the high area.    Yes, it's a $90 dollar stock and we aren't discriminating any stocks that we feel have the potential to pull a good move. We all know the power of the MA, CROX, FWLT expensive plays now, don't we!.  We are monitoring the action closely. The mid May high is around 92.50 after the sell off.  Today was the first day it closed over 90 since.

There were quite a few new positions /stocks taken today.  This shouldn't take the spotlight away from this Q's DJIM plays that had a very good day.  TRCR +14%, CUB +6%, RCCC 3.9%, IDSA +4%, GTI +2%.  Not bad for a day the DJIA up 8pts and the NASD up 4pts.



DJIM #28 2008

In a typical holiday week trading fashion, things just went by quickly.    At the beginning of the week, we stressed out the importance of holiday week.   True to our belief, there was no shortage of plays and many were very opportunistic.    As the week has gone by, we are basically back to the point where we expect a flurry of earning reports.    Unlike the other quarters, this earning period seems to last the shortest with possibly the worst market reaction.    This is typical of this time of the year.    However, judging by the enthusiasm we've seen during the past few weeks, it doesn't really feel that we are slowing down, as far as trading goes.    Perhaps this has alot to do with the fact that the market is sitting relatively near the year high.   When the market is at or near the high, there always tend to be opportunities, and people always tend to be optimistic and are willing to put money into work.    This is just the way our psychology works.

So far, we had RIMM to thank for.   In the coming weeks, we are going to see more reports coming out.   Some reports will be praised and some will not be.    As far as our game plan goes, we are going to sift through reports that spawn the strongest trading reaction, positively of course.   We'd try to catch those that hopefully give us enough time and room to play.     

here are some strong plays from last week that may carry over into the coming week....

DRYS/TBSI, these two are the only two shippers we played last week and both of them pretty much closed out the week near the high.   At this point, we like DRYS's chart slightly better as TBSI looks a little too extended at this point.   However, we've learned too much from the past that we can only be so cautious.    A play will run its course whenever it decides to.   For us, even when we decided we should raise our cautionary flag, we'd still only keep it in the back of mind and react quickly once the reversal does happen.    Basically, we just have to be better prepared when the action gets too extended.

LPHI, this one is beginning to look better now.   After its initial sell of and the breach of 9 ema, it seems to stabilize the last few days.    If it can break the $36 area, we'd be back in full force.

AZZ, this one had a pretty good earning reaction and last few days have just been phenomenal.    It's now back near the old high and we'd see if it gather enough momentum to start a fresh legup from this point.

FWLT, volume didn'st seem to drop that much last week.   This is a good sign as the stock basically broke out from its consolidative trendline.   How high can it go or will it go?     We don't know but we know that we'll play this one untill the music stops.

FSLR/JASO/LDK/TSL,  we added TSL to the group last week.   This group has done some nice work last week.   As long as the 9 ema is in tact, we are trading them actively.

PENX, can this one pull a LPHI or RCCC?   In honesty, we'd like to see this one consolidate a bit.   The sooner it can consolidate, the better chance it can pull another runup.    We are keeping our eyes on this one very closely.

DDUP/SCOR, these two recent tech IPOs are hot on our list last couple of days.   We like their action in conjunction with the rest of the tech sector.   We think the runup will definitely carry into next week and we'd be trading these two aggressively.

Other notable gainers last week include SPAN MBLX GTLS CUB BTJ TRCR...