Smells like rotation..

Although, the market only made incremental gains to a close of SPX 1335 “R”, the importance of the day likely lies in DJIM’s morning market update…

“….Hard pullback to note from open-10am on momo', notably internet linked names with mkt green.  Some kind of profit taking or/and rotation?..Financials JPM bid, Semi's trough?....we'll see….SINA SOHU BIDU TZOO PCLN APKT NFLX AMZN OPEN LULU  all over~5-10pts down reversals”.  

Strong names of late like MCP PANL CTXS  joined the selling parade after hitting fresh highs off the open. The afternoon and close did nothing to alleviate pressure as most names finished near lows of days.  It would be a mistake to see only marginal losses from previous day's close and not see the losses made in first 30 minutes off highs..

As the day progressed, evidence of potential rotation was becoming more evident.  Money wasn’t only coming out of earnings/ momo’ names, but also out of energy and a few other recent leading sec’s.  More proof was the late push in XLF and JPM,GS closing near highs of day and SOX outperforming the comp/NDX, 5:1 .  Throw in some Dow 30 mega’s like  CSCO >5%, HPQ AXP JPM, MSFT outperformance and the day’s puzzle  starts to come together.

Only yesterday, we discussed…..”The market needs leadership and if a trough is around the corner for the semi’s, it might get some money off the bench and a follow through to chase higher beta growth would likely follow”.  Well, not only did leadership come from SOX , we also saw money come off the bench/ profit taking from momo’earning names into the Financials  (other big leadership group investors like to see).  Played out a little differently, but nonetheless we saw fresh buying, likey the bigger $$ flow we've noted as the lacking buy conviction.

All in, it almost seems too perfect if we get this rotation coinciding at these technical levels, so you have to be prepared for all trading possibilites..up or down.

Global Central banks in focus Thursday, notably ECB and what Trichet’s commentary will expose on pace of further hikes after iniital .25bps tomorrow.

Shadowlist

■Financials  - RKH, regional bank ETF usually works well if this to continue, better than trading XLF.  GS, JPM.

■Momentum/ earnings/ winners of ’10 – Last week cited Opticals/fibre had that bottoming feeling until EXFO earnings.  Now, OCLR report wasn’t any better, but analysts suggest growth will resume 2H.  FNSR  OPLK  JSDU >4%-9% in the first hour and held up to close.  The reaction was typical ‘baked in’ as the stocks followed a different road post SANM EXFO earnings.  As far as profit taking in momentum names…there is plenty of money to be taken from other sectors and so it may not last long in high beta momentum because earnings are around the corner.  Still, it’s best to be prudent if trying to find a bottom point as money comes out faster on the way down then up in this group.

■Consumer – retail numbers on deck Thursday morning. ANF and BBBY tonight provide a nice floor so far.  WYNN, LVS  should not fall into any further momo’ selling as the picture here has turned more fundamental since Macau report.

DJIM #17 2011

Kept hearing late in the week,” what a rollercoaster of a week!”.  Well, we’re not sure what all the fuss is about as it’s been straight up ~40 SP handles/ >+3%  since 15 minutes into Mondays’ trading,.. “SPX , approx.~1295 off SP downgrade news likely a buy”.   Must be the dying words of all the naysayer social media guru carcasses seen sprawled out by Friday’s close!.  Of course, majority of the move wouldn’t have happened if it wasn’t for earnings and the reactions changing and coming in ‘solid’ after a disappointing week 1. A big part of trading is preparedness and coming into week we were citing one of the ‘what if’s’  to rally the market laying out the steps ie.....Solid broad Europe earnings, US market sell off reactions would change,etc. to get the rally.  You can’t have the poor reactions we saw early keep coming in, if you have something like 80% of the corporations reporting positively and/or surprising. The averages were unlikely to change as the market went forward, if 16 out of 20 surprise positively, we’ll probably see 80 out of a 100 accomplish this and so on and on it goes.   

Recall,  a big key to keep the upside going and going is for investors to continue and see ‘value’ in stocks as we’ve been saying all month…..”… investors need to see value in stocks to keep the trend in tact for Q2 or market risks a correction later this month, earnings are the big key to that!”.   Okay, so far so good, but the market did generate some fresh headwinds, eg renewed Sovereign debt tension, even Financial links falling off earnings is a fresh concern along with rails/transports lagging the tape. It’s no surprise most investors were caught snoozing on the rip higher with all the negativity around. 

Now the excuse for many will probably be 'technical’  as we close at a cluster of SPX “R” resistance. It’s an endless circle of pessimism regurgitating through the market the last few years.  It’s always something that supposedly keeps real buying on the sidelines before realization hits and PA (performance anxiety chase) ensues.

Into the trading week, earnings can keep the momentum going, but some caution will be ahead of Bernanke’s ‘big day’, which will likely lead the market to consolidate.  The ‘Super Bowl’ hype over his first post-FOMC press conference will likely turn into a non-event with Will and Kate’s wedding likely offering more exciting.

Shadowlist

Broad range of Shadowlist linked stocks performed relatively well intraday, despite market not passing overnight highs as speculated post-AAPL exuberance in AMC.  Names with >3% gains are tagged on site.