All about EPS to some...

Other than the EPS stories (to DJIM),  there was no dominating noise to explain the market stability and rise today.   As a whole,  this market shrugged off the morning weakness and closed the day near the high.   This is quite remarkable given the weakness we had toward yesterday's late day session.    Technically, we dipped south of SPX 840 intraday, but it’s only bearish if it closes there.   Mkt closed SPX 850, right in the middle of the range we‘ve focused, sort of the battle ground these days.    As we have mentioned the last couple of Journals,  we seemed to be range bound until something catalyst that can drive us higher, or lower.  

The market players are attempting to say such things as, (Briefingcom)…Another factor keeping a lid on rallies right now is that this earnings season is shaping up to be essentially a lot of white noise….Moreover, while the unexpectedly high number of current quarter beats might normally be seen as a positive catalyst for the market, what is keeping a damper on most earnings-fueled rallies is that: 1) stocks already have had extended runs into their reports, and 2) as is typical in a recession, these bottom-line beats are most often enabled by aggressive cost-cutting rather than stronger than expected demand.  

Here at DJIM, we are not looking for another substantial rally, we just want to see the market break this range.   Yesterday before the open (Forum), we noted their was ‘broad’ corporate trends that we felt might give the market a boost.    Considering,  the previous close was ugly, a day with no catalysts and some EPS stories (CC's) during the trading day , we somehow closed at SPX850.  We think earning are playing a quiet backdoor role.    Do you have a better explanation?.  This premise has some credence following AMC reactions to MSFT, AMZN.   Of course, barring any “stress test” negative cataylst, we think the market may abate the “ selling the news(eps)” and surprise many by breaking over 860!.

As far as individual/ stocks, we couldn’t be more pleased with the action LVS  WYNN.  Both continued the squeeze potential we alluded to and were up another 10% early while the overall market lagged.  We also had a nice 3+ move from alerted PENN ,  a “Racino” off earnings, besides the earnings we liked it fit because it fits into the Gaming play.


On the negative side, we’re sorry to see our favorite commodity group since late March disappoint.  NUE, RS, and STLD all moved lower as the concern of the health of this industry lingers.   The ag-chem sec wasn’t so rosy either as POT, did not inspire much confidence either after its report.    This basically gave us the confirmation that you'd never know how this market will respond to certain report/guidance.   On the other hand,  we had a couple of well received statements from the likes of AAPL EQIX.    We were actually quite surprised to see EQIX have such a strong reaction which is very different to last quarter's reaction to a similar report.

Banks, again,  were leaders late carrying the market tape into the green.  We commented BLK  might be gaving reason for optimism later.  It broke out with another 4+ points add on late and  WFC, JPM, GS, STT, (PNC, CS  earnings noted)... just a few on our list that performed exceptionally well.    If the market players can let out a breath, a  sigh of relief on the stress tests, the XLF breaking $11  will cause a nice break to the upside.   The Futures are pointing to a lower open (low 840's), but we think this will change by open.  Euro markets may give signals to market direction early on.

Tomorrow,  we'll get a glance of the criteria that's being used in the all important "stress test".   This is definitely going to be interesting as investors would see for themselves how some of their favourite companies will fare in the test.

AMC, we've had some nice reactions to the corporate trends for Nasdaq tech- linked MSFT, AMZN, JNPR SYNA and even in a financial link, AXP (huge expense cuts).    Unfortunately,  we also had the news that Chrysler is nearing an announcement to file for Chap 11. This should be overshadowed and relate more to sub groups.   The trend lately seems to be favouring the EPS stories in our eyes.    So far, we had quite a few market leaders that showed decent eps reaction, in our view AAPL is not 'selling on news' typical as others seem to be calling it because a stock doesn't jump 10-20%.    This is definitely a high contrast to what happened last quarter as most of the companies were taken down hard after their earning report.  That was selling the news.

At DJIM,  we have been doing some quick trading here and there last few days.   However, we are still waiting patiently for this market to make a major move.    The probability, at this point, still favours an up move as oppose to a down move as 840 seems pretty formidable this week.

...taken with a grain of salt

http://www.conference-board.org/economics/ConsumerConfidence.cfm

Honestly, most of us probably don't even have that eco' # marked on our calendar.   Well, maybe some do, but when we said it was a slow week ahead for eco' data points, we certainly avoided this one as being critical as most.    Yup,  all this market needed today was an inspiring "confidence" number coming out right after the market held at support ~879 (Thur low)-880.   Is this too much of a coincidence?   It sure wasn't a joke to the Bears, who can't seem to avoid upside risks!   In any case,  we got a heck of a squeeze/ melt up after the data was released and we closed near the high of the day.

The bad part, unfortunately, is that there's really a lack of any news of any kind besides this eco' data point.  The focus is still on the TSY auctions this week.   It seems the market will use anything as a catalyst these days, keep this in mind,  it could work the other way later in the week on something seemingly not so crucial at first glance.   This is also a shortened holiday week and so volume was still relatively tame.    Nonetheless,  we closed at SPX 910 and we are 19 pts away from the short term top.   So get ready to lighten up on some positions, folks!   Can this market get any more mechanical/predictable than this?   Maybe, maybe not!  Until the day comes that confirms we breakout of the recent range,  we are going to have to treat and respect the recent resistance/support.

It took time, but most groups advanced with the Consumer discretionary  led tape (early cycle recovery groups), including the high beta Casino/Lodging  trade with last Fridays late buy HOT  leading the charge. 

Tech stocks  were led higher today with AAPL/ RIMM  (upgrades) acting great,  while our smaller plays such as STEC  PEGA  EQIX  were holding up as well.  We said techs may get some attention this week based on a better than expected tech conference/ earnings.  The upgrades were a result as this group stood out.

Financials, closed near it's highs.

Commodities opened weak, but closed near/at recent $CRX highs.  At this point,  it doesn't feel like we are brewing for a big move up unless something dramatic develops.   We are treating the recent top 920-929 as a point to lighten up some positions and use any weakness to add back some stuff.  

Again,  this is a holiday week so we aren't expecting anything huge to happen.   If a big move does come within the next couple of days,  we'll be here and ready to trade.  In honesty, we wouldn't mind for this market to hold near the upper end of the range till the end of this week.   We'll see how long this CCI has investors/ traders believing in a economic recovery as well?.  At this juncture, we want to see conviction and that would be breaking out of the range before we get as giddy as those 5,000 CCI households !.

Earning coming into focus...

In the premarket newsflow,  OECD  raised the economy outlook for U.S (alert posted).  This is the first time they've done it in 2 years.   This is actually a direct forecast contrast of what World Bank said a couple of days ago, which we stated we had problems with and it would go away once/if digested properly.   Regardless who's right and who's wrong, we always feel that it's up to the market to decide the outcome.   In the econ. data dept.,  we had a unexpected big surprise Durable Goods #  that further excited the market in the early going.   Although the market ended up giving up most of its gains, we'd still like to point out a few positives.

Earnings do matter! Tech giant ORCL came out with better than expected report last night and the stock/ sector was greeted with some positive reaction.   Despite the late day weakness, both ORCL and JBL (another one reported eps last night) held up most of the gains by the close.   The responsible culprit for today's late day weakness is the FOMC statement or better, the lack of it in regards to more purchases which caused a $USD lift off and commods' took it on the chin.    Still,  you can say that everything they decided during the meeting was pretty much expected.   The bottom line is that we are back at SPX 900 w/ 50MA crossing 200MA.   Buyers are present,  just more discriminating with purchase prices than in the previous months of the rally.    As more and more companies line up to release earnings, we are feeling more confident about buying on the dips, (STEC another perfect 9ema move today).   Given the weakness we've endured the last week and half,  some of the plays on our watchlist are no longer in the "overbought" category.

Looking at various sectors on our shadowlist link,  there's no doubt that some of the strong ones came from Steels (most up 5% early) + Tech  area,  as well as some China  plays.  In fact, overall breadth is superb today with only a few red names on our entire watchlist. http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=141&t=AAPL,ADY,AKS,ARUN,ASIA,BIDU,BWY,CVLT,DDRX,EBS,EJ,EQIX,FCX,FSLR,GMCR,GNK,GS,GYMB,HES,HOT,ICE,JPM,JOYG,JRCC,LVS,MA,MOS,MYGN,NEU,OIH,PENN,POT,PWRD,RIMM,RVBD,SAFM,SCHN,STAR,STEC,STP,TSL,WFC,WMS,WYNN,WLT,X,&ta=0&p=w&o=-change

Before the actual earnings season starts in full force sometime in July (now we have May ending reports), our trading strategy is simple.  So called "technical weakness" continues to be a buying opportunity to us,  just as we noted this week if we approached 880SPX.    We just don't see a major breakdown to a much lower level without some major negative catalysts coming into EPS.   Given the recent positive earning trend and econ. data points,  the probability of a breakdown is even less likely.   Right now, we are still in a process of working through some overbought levels since March and it's likely to continue over the next couple of weeks.   This shouldn't concern new standout EPS plays coming.  

In the meantime,  enjoy the good trading action that still exists out there,  you just have to be selecive or just tune in to the soap opera as one congressman is smearing Bernanke with a cover up, while another Senator is confessing his adultress- marriage cover up all at the same time.  Oh, what a country!

Anything but conventional....

So far,  it's been concluded that 2009 isn't a normal trading year.    Unlike last year, where everyone seemed to be on the same page, this year nobody seems to agree on anything concrete for more than a day.     One thing we all have to admit and respect though, is that the market took a gigantic turn from a low of SPX 666 to what we are now at SPX 1025.     We can disagree on many aspects of the recent economic development, corporate development and policy development.     What we all have to agree though is that the public (investment) has one sided agreed that things are improving.   Investment community has been voicing their opinion through  buying and more buying of riskier assets (equities) and that's how we got to this point today.

Strangely, it's still a sceptical vision for some people (bears).    Since we can’t predict what's going to happen the next six months to a year of trading , that conclusion remains up in the air, but we cannot DENY what's happened the last six months.    If people still think it's just a conspiracy by the government and a bunch of big brokerage firm’s artificially propping this market higher, then those people seriously need to check their heads.    Politely, simply that’s our interpretation of those people who have misread the market during last six months.

Ok, having traded this market on the long side during the past few months, we do admit that things aren't easily interpretable from time to time.    In other words, this hasn't been a conventional bull market.     How?   The market itself has consistently beat our expectation and surprised even the most optimistic bulls.    It's a good thing, right?    Well, unless you are a new bull that was born at the beginning of 2009, this might be one of those sweetest year you'll ever encounter.    For those seasoned traders that have "seen it all", we feel the market has outperformed most of them.    For DJIM traders,  we trade and live in a world of probabilities.    We enter a trade often in a high probability scenario and hope to profit from it.    If the trading scenario offers a low probability, we simply wait for better opportunity.    This is our conventional way of trading and why earnings plays work either immediately or simply, sooner than later.    However, what if the market offers nothing but low probability trades and often those trades work out wonderfully?    Well, welcome to 2009!.     Having traded as many years as we have, we just have to say that this year is nothing like the other years.   In other so- so bull years, we'd have done ten times better than we'd have done this year up till now.    Of course,  we may be a bit hard on ourselves, but the whole point we are trying to make here is that this ISN"T a conventional trading year.     It's been a slow and cautious adjustment as well always still full of hesitation and tentativeness.    We simply do not want to throw away all of our previous "know how" experience in order to adjust to the current trading mentality where garbage bin stocks have worked.   This will probably be a repeat of where Joe- Schmo thinks he’s a trader now until the day comes they are taught a ruthless lesson or two to take them where they started from.   We know, down the road, this market will eventually return to the normal mode and our knowledge and experience will apply greatly.    Discipline and consisitency is still our main strength at DJIM, even if it means foregoing some of the "seemingly easy" profit here and there.

Back to this market, we concluded yesterday's Journal that we’d concentrate on individual stocks and let the broad market to what it needs to do at new 2009 highs.  A stock we alerted late last week and said yesterday it should be on top of your trading list,  BCRX  stole the show with a huge lift, we really didn’t even notice SPX action all afternoon thanks to it.   Even though we closed flat,  it's really not that big of a deal considering the week we just had and the fact this is the week people go away for one last break in the summer.    Some other plays on our list such as SWM SXCI HGSI ABVT  from this Q and those from last Q STEC EBS EQIX... exhibited some nice strength through out the day.    Other plays have been firming up the setup as well as noted yesterday.   Overall, we thought it's a pretty good day.   As the market inches higher, we are in the buy on strength mode.  Tomorrow is that 5000 household CCI # to watch for possible market direction , even though we don’t really consider a eco data point.