Ahead of the open, (24-02)

Although the SP may only be up ~2 pts WTD, those dip buyers noted yesterday, “likely sniffing around for an opportunity..” at supports/20ma’s may swing 15-20SP handles quickly thanks to a gift open low to SP1252 with just a little follow through momentum on Friday.  As far as ‘gift’, how else can you explain a market that was given another positive Initial claims #, but slid from gains just before open to lows of day off nothing!  As far as possible momentum into the next trading day, it’s possible due to the reversals seen today, (specifically in the transports),which has been a bear case since mid –month because the sub sector did not confirm Dow’s highs, plus the RUT, which posted the biggest day gains of the majors.  All in, the subdued profit taking in winner beta groups of late reversed (semi’s still lagged).  Still, upward momentum may be limited as next week’s event schedule starts coming into focus.

SXCI, CRM earnings keep these old listed names around for longer as momentum is not waning.

Ahead of the open, (23-03)

Is this time going to be any different?.  Do the markets do a 3-peat in Q1?   

As the market (SP) closes lower for a third straight day, (~26 SP handles from ’12 intraday highs to today’s low), we ask if it will turn out like the 2 other shallow pullbacks this year?.  The last pullback and reversal is still pretty vivid here,  “…what happened was only a repeat (shallow pullback) of January’s 3 day/~35 SP handle drop, including a 200+DJIA decline day followed by a complete reversal to within 4pts of February highs."

The premise in early March,..” ..'Ahead of the open’ with the market at weeks low of SP1340 with NFP just 2 trading days away, asked, “Question now, is it better to wait on NFP#’s now or buy the dip now below broken support???.   And concluded with, ...“Still, if you believe in the recovery, it's hard not to get in on a ~35SP move off highs in front of the NFP# sooner than later”.  If an investor missed the ~65 SP point ride that followed in March, how long can you stay away this time?.   Some of the old culprits in the last pullback have returned with China, leading ‘a commodity swoon’ once again today.  Did they ever go away?  Basically, the same concerns discussed all month here are ringing through the marketplace today with the ‘risk off’ trade paying the price…sometimes it’s the Precious metals etc, today it was crude, base metals, but all in, it’s still a commodity demand worry linked sell-off. 

But, one thing that remains constant is the idea, “On 01/03 noted the possibility  ...”A commodity led correction, but not necessarily one that will take equities down very much!”.   Despite the selling in materials, steels, coals etc. today, the IBM type mega tech caps, internets, consumer stocks performed very well indicating equities are hard to take down as money flows through equity groups.  Although RUT gapped down and underperformed, listed names here covering a broad range all finished green with many others only marginally in the red. (ie. ULTA FOSL LVS  LULU  PCLN  N FFIV  V  PMTC BIDU  SXCI  LQDT)

All in, the market got something to talk about, but in the end the same trends remain until/unless more concrete data hits.  Example,(same trend), Initial claims was another robust # bringing in another fresh cycle low. (4wk avg.). 

The market ‘headlines’ and it’s gurus did their best to alarm the ‘Bull’ with the remix of the old hit..Hard ' China' landing and Eurozone recession fears.  It seems a .5 to .7% drop on the major indices is really a big deal today.  It’s almost comical.  Starting the "Ahead of the open' with “Do the markets do a 3-peat”  is even comical as the market is not even through stage 1 of a true 3-peat play(of ~35 handles).  It’s only been hit~26 SP pts. (H to L), so far!.   Incidentally, a trip of 10 more pts would take it to February highs and mark another ~35 ‘shallow’ pullback.  A few other supports are in the 1370’s.  It would’ve been ideal spot for dip buyers to pounce for month/Q end window dressing, but no such luck today!.

Ahead of the open, (19-04)

A little give back, a little digestion post big day.  Really not much going on, except maybe a better sentiment towards Europe as Spain negative headlines (bad loans data) was shrugged off ahead of the main Auction on Thursday.  A better picture of what investor sentiment towards Spain will emerge from the auction.  Still, it likely won’t be a catalyst to solve this 1370-1400 SP range as conviction on both sides is lacking.

All in, on a boring down market day, it was nice to have 3 of the best performers in the market (all up 10%)off the Shadowlist.  PII, URI,  earnings winners again and  SXCI up on an acquisition. Upgrades were flowing all day for the 3 stocks.