A-Team wins the coin toss!

Kick off time came a little early today with AAPL giving what many hoped for at the show!.  You couldn't read a piece of press without the question on everybody''s mind...What will AAPL do?. The anticipation was there and the traders were waiting for the news.  Nothing like a little spark to the techs that need to lead this market.  You can't live on Tires and Rubbers being the leaders as in the past sessions much longer.  Mr. Jobs you may now call it Apple Ltd,  Apple Inc. or Banana anything as long as you keep throwing the toys out.  We talk a lot about momentum here, nearly 120 million shares is definitely it.  UBS lifted the tech sector yesterday and AAPL lifted it today.  Let's hope we can get some conviction in buying techs.

We've heard ramblings from analysts that aluminum might be somewhere to go in 2007, so maybe it's no big surprise the official EPS kick off went all swell with Alcoa giving a shiny picture AH.  The stock is up nearly 5% AH.  Nothing like a look in the past and getting some ERS dusted off, maybe some CENX too for tomorrow.   Always look for something that can piggyback an Alcoa type play, the secondary plays are often more fruitful.  Same goes for those that will feed off the AAPL endeavor..you didn't have to look far as a reader tossed out a play out of our backyard in SNCR on the Forum.  Last look before calling it a day, SNCR was trading at $15, now it sits in the 15.60's. 

Last night,  we discussed the need for new stocks, new plays!.  If anything these events give out a few secondary plays that should get some traders interested.  Still, today was not without a few other things working off DJIM notes that provided some nice opportunities.

VOL, which we introduced on our last forum has come back with vengeance today.  It beat estimates handily and we started to trade this off the pullback around $41 as soon as it looked like it would hold its morning gains.  Soon after our mention it broke the days high over 42 and added a few points more into the close.  This is a volatile play but when it gets momo it can give you a helluva a ride.

OPTM, mentioned pre market caught the usual wind and from just over $25 hit a high of $26.60's, hey if Cramer gives you 5% take it and say see you next time.  One good thing about OPTM is most of you have played it here and should have a better feel for it.  Its not that big of a surprise it gave it all up by end of day.  Not so good to finish at low of day for any stock, but this one is quite the choppy trader so it just might have legs again very soon.   Off this ' triple play' business, we alerted another at $25 that has been talked as a triple play threat, even if its robotics/lasers are used elsewhere mostly..... IPGP a recent IPO that has held steady after gapping on IPO day and now by the end of day looks even better on the charts.

OSIR,  the FDA play from last night to watch. We picked some up again as it looked to finish near the high. Maybe it has a another day in it or two.

So there are plenty of new holds tonight..AAPL,IPGP,SNCR,VOL,OSIR

AMK which almost kissed $20 after being in the low 17's a few days back and MFW which had an incredible snap back today show that quality companies trading well can do some fancy dancin'. Most importantly, how irrelevant it is to know exactly what prices we enter these or any stock at.   We give you a stock to watch for a potential trade, some move soon, some don't...some you just better keep around so you can catch a move like MFW did the next day for 3 points today.  In both of these stocks readers could've had better prices than the prices we got for our first bite!.   Don't concern yourselves about exact prices of our entries on stocks, just make sure you're making money....hopefully on the same stocks we share with you.

This is more like it.....a little conviction

Of course, we are referring to the various strong action from the DJIM stocks.   In fact, you may very well call it a DJIM market today.    In our opinion, today is definitely the best trading day so far in this new year.    Sure, we don't have any crazy movers out there but that doesn't stop our readers from throwing out a few..CBLI,  but we are very encouraged to see the broad action from many many stocks.   Ok lets start with the run-downs.....we'll skip the first of 5 from last night new crop, AAPL .....

VOL, we had to put this one on first because after a breathtaking run-up yesterday, we got another speechless run-up today.   So, to answer some of your "entry pt" questions, when it comes to "EARNING" play, it doesn't even matter what price, as long as it's entered within a reasonable time frame after the mention.    So what's next?   Again, have you forgotten to take some profit today?   Strong move like this one exhibited always pauses quicker than you can blink.    If it goes a lot higher, we'd be glad that we still hold some and would likely add some back.   Again, the idea is that you'd never want to have an idea of getting into a hot play with a full position at the beginning of a run-up and sell the "full" position at the absolute top.    That kind of "timing" mentality is not only insane, but risky as well.

OSIR, we were discussing among ourselves earlier that this one could be a slow crawler.   For some reason, someone up there heard our chat and decided it's time to teach our "arrogance" a little lesson.  So it ran with very good volume.   We did not complain about the quick change of pace in action so we quickly rejoiced the idea by adding more in the 27s.   If that's the way they want to play, so be it.

IPGP, well we are glad someone noticed that big block after the close.   It just goes to show that ppl other than us, ppl with deep pockets, and probably institutions are interested in this stock.    Time to get in was definitely yesterday and time to add is today....$25-28 move in 1.5 days ain't bad!

SNCR, this one needs no introduction and we were the first ones probably to trade this back in the 9 range. lol   Putting aside all of the speculation of whether this apple iphone will take off or not, just take a look at the volume.   This definitely puts this one on map among many many momentum institutions, if there's such a thing called that.    We don't think the run-up is over right away, judging by its action today.   Besides, this one does have pretty good earning.

DLB, ok we were actually pretty bored with this one lately, until today that is.   So apparently it broke out, with decent volume.   Will we give it some faith and believe there's some follow through?  Hell yeah and if we aren't being faithful in this kind of market, when will we ever be faithful?

MEND, this one was a late purchase for us and we did not have time to alert our members.      Pretty strong breakout and we like its action.  Again, don't worry about entry.  It mattered little on yesterdays 5 new holds. At a point today they averaged about a 10% gain off yesterdays close.

In fact, there are quite few other stocks that did well today and we are just not going to go into every single one of them.   Just go through all of your DJIM watchlist and you'd know which ones we are talking about.    The market is definitely kicking into a "good mood" gear.    With earnings coming up and as long as some good reports come up ala VOL, we'd be in business and it'll be busy enough for us to trade through the earning season.   Looking forward to trading tomorrow....

cheers,

Breakout action vs. Pullback action

We have touched on this subject many times on this site and older forums.     Today is a typical example of chasing the breakout action.  Here's a trading idea for some of you.   On a strong index day when a lot of things are up, you definitely want to concentrate on the "GREEN" stuff to participate in the rally of performers rather than to anticipate the recovery of the "RED" stuff.   Because when you are debating whether to add on a pullback, there'd be lots of opportunity passing you by with strong gains, especially on a good index day.   When the index is not doing much or down just slightly, that's when you look at pull backs more assuming there isn't that many "strong green" stocks to play.   Always prioritize your trading list and go with the strong beta first.    Just because you bought the stock couple of days ago and it isn't doing much for you doesn't mean that you can't cut it lose and go into something else.  We did that with OSIR today, we're not going to give up what we earned the last couple of days and blow a call from between 25's to 28's.    It's definitely easier to play break outs than to play pull-back.    The strategy is also dependent of your portfolio size as well.   We knew a guru who would hold 200+ positions on a day like today.   For most of us that would just be impossible to manage.   The point is, if you have a big account, you can afford to hold many positions and even consider buying on pull-backs.  If you have a small account, consider going with the stocks with the best action on a daily basis.   There will be a lot of trading for you but unfortunately it's part of our strategy and part of the game we play.   When a stock drops below 9 ema, it simply looks less attractive to us, pullback or not.   When you have so many stocks breaking out, the last thing we want to be doing is to be stuck on a consolidation play and "hoping" it'll breakout.   When it does breakout, we'd be there.     Our mentality is that we participate a run, but we don't anticipate one.   Also again, before we are moderators and writers of this site, we are traders.   We spend most of the time trading for our own accounts and writing-updates for this site is just an extension of what we do.    Of course, our priority is to write and alert/update on the stocks we think that are showing the best action(opportunity) for the day.  Whats there to talk about SNCR or AAPL today?.  The fun was had and now take the consequences of a stock going 14's to 17.50 in less than a full trading day or one going mid 80's to high 90's the next day.   Going through the entire list of DJIM watchlist every day may need full time attention.  Use the charts to help paint a picture.  Maybe we can do a weekly recap on some special requests on some of the stocks we seem to have missed..so far we have not heard back from those public requests..if we don't know the stocks, we can't help.   Now onto some today's movers....

VOL, this one probably overwhelmed the most optimistic traders given its 3 day action.   Again, we are not saying today is the end of this run-ups but it does feel a little tired at this point.  As far as trading tactics, there was a question and answer in the forum yesterday.  In the example you can see how you can take profits around 60 and then buy the strong close which leads to another 3-4 points today. You sold the 51-59's run to lock in partial profits, then buy maybe the same 1/4 back into the strong close and walk away with another 3-4pts today on the full lot you played.  This is what we did reducing our exposure and now are in a wait and see mode with a very slim position.  In fact, how can you not resist taking some profit at this point?..

CCOI, This one has institutional prints all over it today and you can see the large number of blocks traded from its time and sales. It wasn't over at $ 19. Plenty of people buying a stock up $1.50 at $19 early, these traders are not contemplating a pull back, they are buying a ticket on a train!.   Same goes for SNCR yesterday.   The first thought of a successful trader/investor cannot be when and where is the pullback going to be.

MFW, it seemed as little as two days ago there were concerns of chasing this stock in the 26s or 28s.   Well we had a dip and dip was quickly bought on that day.   What followed is today's advance and if you blink, you'd missed it. The pullback you saw the other day off a NCH is one of a few you should consider. You know its a hot stock and a pullback is extreme.  Thats called opportunity. A .50 cent pullback on a 20 buck stock is not a pullback in our book, it's life..life of a stock.

EDU, now out of all of the China based(quality) stocks, we like this one the best today and yesterday.   See, sometimes we don't have to predict, we just let the stock show us the path.   This is actually a new closing high and we believe it's ready to challenge its all time high. Instead of looking for a pullback what has been happening for months is we trade a EDU for a MR and back and forth with HMIN. They take turns it seems and with these names there is no need to wait for a pull back. A move comes and that's when you buy back.

ABM, it sure tried to breakout today and it closed about mid way between the day high and day low.   At this point, we think this is the right direction and momentum is definitely on the upside.

HLYS, we alerted this one late in the day only because this one has had a history of intraday fake break-outs.   Hopefully, and keep our fingers crossed, that this one may get some kind of follow through after today's near day high close.

GLDN, was a rocket again as it climbs with some news.  MTRX is a piece of work while this oil massacre continues, just one nice oil day should pop this higher.

PTT from premarket is a 'trade' like NWK was. If the flow keeps on we'll be there, otherwise we have no love for keeping this long.

VOL,VOLT INFO SCI at $51, IPGP, IPGP Photonics Corp. at $25, NWK, Network Equipment Technolgies Inc, at $6.80

What has DJIM been up to so far in 2007?.  Same as 2006, we are rolling along!.  Here are some of the plays recently enjoyed by members, but it is not all!.  Of course, many new plays happening are for our members eyes only.  Our FORUM is kicking with participation from other traders giving heads up to potential moves intraday...Our ALERTS/Updates are cranking, our nightly CHART analysis updates on closely followed DJIM stocks are giving our readers another way to look at a potential trade, entry and/or exit for the next day and beyond.

DJIM ALERTS, VOL- ''....Trading a little VOL here'....' was part of an alert 3 pack inc. AAPL to DJIM members at $51. STOCK RUNS to 64 by 3rd day!

Nightly Journal   VOL-"This  is a volatile play but when it gets momo it can give you a helluva a ride".  January 9th....."Again, have you forgotten to take some profit today?   Strong move this one exhibited always pauses quicker than you can blink", January 10th after 2 days of run...VOL, this one probably overwhelmed the most optimistic traders given its 3 day action.   Again, we are not saying today is the end of this run-ups but it does feel a little tired at this point ...and walk away with another 3-4pts today on the full lot you played.  This is what we did reducing our exposure and now are in a wait and see mode with a very slim position, January 11th after day 3.  DAY 4, the drop from $64 to 53's. !!

IPGP-   January 9, 2007 at 01:29PM  $25 in DJIM alerts,  recent ipo, accumulating some for sunnier days . Lasers, triple play broadband angle following OPTM today idea...even if is not the majority of business" ..........FORUM section..."IPGP has held ground at IPO day prices and this 'triple play' broadband hype is creeping into some names. IPGP might get some of that attention. rather accumulate some before"..before a breakout!.    STOCK breakout and runs over 10% from 24.90's  to 27.96 the next day. A 3 pt move in a day and half.

Forum, Cramer liked it at IPO time....IPG Photonics (IPGP:Nasdaq), pull the trigger. Buy your first tranche. This is a laser company that could work here because it is industrial with growth, and that's awfully hard to find. I was thinking that this stock could open at $24 and then trade down from here, but I don't know how much it can go down. I'd bet this stock will get a lot of focus as a replacement for a Parker Hannifin or an Eaton or even an Illinois Took Works, because people want growth badly and they want it in the factory.   We like this stock at DJIM and the growth story it represents.  An undiscovered stock so far that got some attention last week on the breakout.

NWK- Monday, January 8, 2007 at 09:46AM in DJIM alerts

Put this on your watch for a potential trade, raised revenue guidance for this Q and year Friday. Its a tech with about 70%instit. but has a nice chart.  6.80's     Journal     NWK was one that had what many like.  First, it quietly pre-announced a very good Q revenue based and upped the years growth to 17-20% from 10%.   Well, we know what we would do if this was a EPS report, we'd jump on it if it included a similar EPS growth prospect.   We also know these don't last a day, so we thought a second day follow through might happen and it did very nicely on what looks like a volume high day.   Everybody likes a stock under $10, this was the other factor in thinking this had more space to run.  These stocks are not what we look for in a long term DJIM relationship, it's simply a date and one you got lucky on! 

NVX climbed  to $7.50's as a short term trade idea, those that have held beyond, $7.80's has been in the cards and another 10%+ trade.

DJIM #3, 2007

For investors the best thing about a 3 day weekend is it gives an extra day for M&A activity to kick in. This weekend surely is not disappointing in this department as lots of activity is coinciding with the markets playing with highs.   Hopefully, this gets us off on the right foot into a shortened,  but what we expect to be a busy week.   The flurry of earnings will hit us this week and hopefully we can hit back hard by buying into DJIM type earnings winners.   This is the time we/you might want to reduce sizes of holdings or get rid of stocks completely stuck in the  'hub' with no immediate flight plan.   It is best to have cash ready and not be forced to sell things off to get in on a play early.   There is always more than one opportunity to get in on a DJIM stock, but sometimes the first is just an easy gift you can close early and then look for another entry..examples might be like a SNCR move last week but one with earning or an explosive VOL off earning.    Also...don't forget to look for earning dates of your stocks!.  We have enough on hands here in Canada following US holidays, so help us out on DJIM stocks...we knew EDU had earnings Tuesday,  but we didn't know we had a holiday today till about 11 am on Friday..lol. We almost broke our 'no holding rule' into earning with EDU!.

Heading into Tuesday,  these are our top hold/ hit lists plays at this time in no order..

CCF-  Chase Corp is one of those small float (2.3mln float) Amex stocks that hides with pretty darn good earnings.   Friday it reported its profit doubled on a 26% revenue increase.  This .62c Q follows last Q's .69 on similar revenue.  We also like Fidelity owning about 50% on the the instit. shares( 400k).  If they want more, they can get ours now in the $30's!

OSIR- made a nice comeback late in the day Friday.  It seems this one besides the FDA news last week is starting to be looked at as a stem cell stock of sorts.  This explains the volatility the last 2 trading days, Osiris is also developing stem cell treatments for cancer and heart disease.  A new NCH has us looking for more in this name, but now we are looking for more volatility that made us run out of it, Thursday.   Easier to deal with volatility if you know why its there, we didn't Thursday.

CCOI- just a steady follow up Friday from its big day the day before. A NCH and a stock that is up 4.5 points in the New Year so far, almost 30% and is sure to be picked up by more eyes, but it also should consolidate sooner than later.  So be careful jumping in!.  Some of you are getting in a tad late on some plays and expect miracles too fast!.

ABM- we are satisfied with this steady performer.  A NCH to end the week, don't forget we have been on this since $21 and the big push the second day after earning.  This is heavy on institutional support,  so this pace is not unexpected.

MR,  is back in the picture... we like the move Friday and the fact it held it by the close.  We added some near the finish and think this one might be one of the better plays to start week as it has climbed nicely above its 9ema.   It could be just MR, it could also be EDU following earnings and HMIN might not be far off ( we would like to see 40+ before really taking another stab at it).  FFHL should get some play but there is that supply of ones wanting to get out overhead to consider.

AMK, might be the other top play heading into the week.  This is a small float with a nice earning story that is reporting early February.  It just looks like a typical 9ema play at this point heading into earnings.  Wish it just take out Ceramics from its name from its name!.  Can't help but think pots when you first come across it!

INFY, we like it for its EPS, its business and where its at (India).  A few targets in 60's already out following EPS. This might be a nice longer term hold.

CENX,  a play we noted off AA earning is doing well but might want a rest in the 43's. It opened just below $40 on Wednesday following AA's eps.  Again, if you want a nice aluminum stock to hold for the AA story, this is it for the longer term.

MFW,  looks to be one to pick up more of on the dips. At this point as it has some interesting intraday moves and sits close to a high.

SNCR,  seems panic has set in with some, yet its only finished day 3 off news and is only 6% or so off highs. There is two camps here,  one that was getting in $15's Tuesday AH  and then early Wednesday and the second camp that was procrastinating and moving in mid $16's and higher.  Basically first camp has been distributing and the second camp just needs to be patient through it.   If you don't believe in the story then just move on.

VOL,  momentum begets momentum and that is what happened to the upside...and to the downside.  It works both ways, kids. If you've never seen it before, you just passed MOMO 101 last week...hopefully in one piece.  Violent sell offs are nothing new in something that goes up so fast.   Now we turn to giving this a look around the 9ema area.   At this point its only a look, we like to see a reversal begin before considering a entry.

MTRX, MTRX, MTRX one fine oily day it will move.

Some notes on other stocks in Alert/Update page.