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Entries in TBSI (31)


What's to come...

We aren't exactly sure what may be in store for us from this market the next few weeks.   What we do feel comfortable of doing right now is trading on reduced size with selective picks and if and when we say `morning trade opp`...`flip` this means , we are looking to trade those first,  not get in bed with at this point.  We state our intentions.  Those not in the trading hood yet....time to get with the lingo.  This all should be obvious from the last few Journals.  We are happy with a one night stand at this point because of what we have said on the market.  A quickie ain`t bad either.  If something was lost in the language the last few days, maybe this just cleared it up.

We don`t like it the past few days, but we keep on looking for a point or two, here and there and everywhere..  If you can`t flip or be there for a morning opportunity,  just leave it alone and wait for something more than a trading opportunity.  We had members throwing up today and ones checking for news if a bomb had dropped on a Jack in the Box because the stock we gave at 78 premkt was at 77 in a falling market.  If trading causes such reactions in some, seriously consider stacking the Zantac or do something completely different.

To us if finally just feels that this market needs to crack in order to get the monkey off lots of people's back.   Did you notice the SOX was red end of day, while the NASDAQ finished up 22 and every other sector was green!.  You cant go forward if this one doesn`t show leadership of some sorts.  It all looks a little screwy now.   As we said before, we are thinking it is the overseas markets that will spook our market here overnight.   If we can`t do it ourselves, someone will do it for us from the other side.   Just a hunch.   Seasonality favours a pullback here and the run-up from this market also suggests some consolidation here too.    Despite our feeling, we aren't going to walk away from this market completely but instead, we are just going to be trading lightly with a cautionary hat on.    There definitely seems to be lack of a theme now that the earning season comes to an end.   From our experience, there's almost always some jittery at the end of the earning season.    Ok onto the plays that are keeping us interested this week...

GTI, this one just amazes us!  Sure, the performance of the run-up isn't killer like but the steadiness of it makes it a quality hold.    We added a bit of this one today near the end.   Again, this one is also an IBD play but we think there's just much more to it than the IBD crowd.

TBSI,  a new EPS play that came around yesterday that also happened to be yet another.... you guessed it, IBD play.    The chart looks very  powerful in this one and we can feel the momentum crowd having their hands full with this one.   Take it or leave it, this one is in play and we are getting involved as well.

NGA, perhaps our feeling has been exaggerated by the split announcement and maybe all is still well with this play.    No matter, we can not let our own emotional feeling from making good trading decisions based on the actual action of the stock.    This one did come back very nicely and in fact notched a new closing high.    We bought some back today and feel the IBD theme is still intact with this one.   We'll see how this one develops next couple of days.  Again, we`re back but we`re not back in sizes that we carried since the $10`s..11`s..12`s

FWLT, we are watching very closely on this one for any sign of pickup in volume/strength.   Perhaps this is the one with the highest probability of making it to the triple digit club on our watchlist.

Bottom line, we are being very selective in this market right now and try not to get carried away with sizable positions.



A day of rest it seems.  Not much conviction, a few flickers of green and then much ado about nothing
by the close as the Bulls got the sword in it's butt and backed off for the time being.  Sitting Bull.  At this point, we are not expecting new stocks to emerge as quickly. So, what we do is look to the stocks we have played or watchlisted this Q to see if these names have any potential if the melt up continues.  Preparation is best, trading stock for the sake of trading is not.   A little boredom might sink in, but sticking to your style..your niche is essential.  Easiest way to curb your need for a hit might be to look at your successful trades recently and see if what you are considering to trade has any of the characteristics of your winners.  Simply, we are not seeing a NGA, IDSA, LXU, CROX emerge. Still micro-small caps will still continue to expose themselves while you hear earning season is basically over now.  So what do we do?, well we back off and just bother each other over IM until a play comes along we like and fits DJIM.   So, considering we are not seeing anything new come that needs immediate's a few you have seen cross the DJIM wire recently that we are holding and/or adding to today.

TBSI, we like to nickname our stocks. Tipsy is fitting for TBSI in the first hour today. We thought we'd better get the barf bags out for the quesy ones as it slipped from a good open to low 20's. We knew of the shipping D-grade before the open on a few names but we did not think this would it would spread to the TBSI,DRYS and a few others BofA did not cover.  When the drop started, the first thing we looked for was how the sector names were performing.  Seeing a few names had rebounded already, we averaged down and took more TBSI on.  By the early afternoon, it was back grinding away at $21 and eod definitely had some steady buy interest.  If this this makes it to IBD this weekend, it will be a new name to many and will most likely have interest next week. This one is completely different than the IDSA inclusion type play goal of $15 where you expect to sell the following Monday on the exuberance follow through.  This a dry bulk shipper,  a hot sec with earnings numbers that will be revised after their report.  We mentioned DRYS and the sector back in April, few money players might be looking for a new name to grasp. We hope Tipsy could be it.

CROX,  This is as pure a earning play as you will ever get.  You can't beat this Q's results and guidance. Solid since our first buy-in mid 60's AH, it is now closing on 80.  We said the guidance was crazy and with a little patience you are seeing what a stock that actually has a solid company behind it can do.  An upgrade was noted yesterday, don't be fooled these upgrades don't show it's worth immediately.  It's the D-grades that you should worry about immediately. Volume was there today, highest since earning day.

GTI,  hung in there and looks to be shaping up for a try at IBD tomorrow. This one is quite different than the
IDSA, NGA we have considered as a IBD inclusion plays.  There are hedgies here that will knock you
down silly if the trip to $15 gets silly with exuberance. Think of it, you are a hedgie and you know the crowd
might be bidding hard for 15, maybe you'd just set a wall of sells at/near/above $15 on a Friday?. Could be a lot
of smoke and mirrors tomorrow...also, you don't know who might be pushing it up, including other hedgies late
in the week...and you don't who's waiting at $15 if it gets there.  Take out the IBD stuff and you have a pure turnaround story who's bottom line is changing. Sooner than later this will be at $15 +....Volume should surpass 2mln easily tomorrow and like CROX volume maybe the kick start to a good close.

Speaking of volume..this is what is lacking right now in some other holds like FWLT, LXU etc.  Like CROX today, volume tick to the upside should be what gets these stocks rolling again and gives us a reason to add shares.



Little Lackluster...

Market action today was a little lackluster at best.    We had a good open and some strong intraday movement but somehow the pace at the end isn't the kind that we'd all be cheering for.   However, there's really no need to point finger at any one catalyst and we may simply have to accept the day's action as one of those lazy days in May.   Long weekend is coming up and perhaps this is giving traders an excuse for a much needed break.  Overall, stocks aren't reacting to the intraday volatility too badly and we'll just have to stay focused for what's going on in the market.    We haven't been doing too much today.    We are making notes of some of the individual action and will act accordingly when a big move comes.   The key in this kind of market, is to be totally prepared for sudden action.    When we say being prepared, we meant that being prepared to add or cut positions aggressively on a moment's notice.    Being reflexive is one thing, being decisive on making the right move is another.  

MFLO, we bot a little bit of this one today as we think this one is in play.    Volume has been great past couple of days and obviously there's something about this one that ppl really like.   We aren't chasing this one in an aggressive way as we think there will be sporadic dips which we can utilitze to put our bids in.    At this point, we'd also like the 9 ema to catch-up a little to ease off the extended action just a little. Just like many stocks this gave back  the .60c after the alert. Recent EPS report Q3 EPS of $0.27 from continuing operations vs $0.17 single analyst estimate; reports revs of $18.0 mln vs $18.0 mln single estimate.  Co issues Y07 guidance, sees non-GAAP EPS of $0.87-0.90, from previous guidance of $0.68-0.75

TBSI, this is one of the stronger stocks out there and perhaps it's being helped by TNP's earning today.   Whatever the case, we definitely like its action today and added a little.

MR, many of the Asian stocks have enjoyed a good day and this one is no exception.   We like this one's action more especially after its most recent earning announcement (noted EPS in Forum).  It's particularly interesting here as it's knocking on the level of its all time high.    We didn't add much today but if the volume comes in next few days with a corresponding up move, we'd be more aggressive on this one. 


Looking for an edge...

Traditionally, market will begin to slow down right about here.    So what are we going to be looking for the next few months?    Well, we know that some participants will take it the easy and take on a vacation, literally.    For others, they'd still grind it out day in and day out, but at a much slower pace.     What we at DJIM are going to look for are plays that aren't beta, but rather look for those plays that move independently from the market.    Of course, that is assuming that the market does not make a dramatic move in either direction.     So,  there's the big rally strategy, there's the big selloff strategy, and then there's this slow action, lazy summer kind of strategy.

How do we approach this market then?    Assuming that some of us have a sizable portfolio, we are going to commit 1/5th of the capital into work, as opposed to the usual amount we'd commit during a busy earning season.    This is just a form of discipline we practice during the slower market.   We found it that when dealing with a slower market, it's much easier to manage fewer positions and smaller sizes.   So at the end, we try to make our trading life easier.    However, managing fewer positions does not mean that we track fewer positions.  On the contrary, we may be forced to track more positions just because we have to expand our watchlist to include not only the smaller caps, but mid caps and some bigger caps as well.

The market may head into a uncertain direction, but our methodology and discipline do not change.   The intensity of trading may not be as high as a couple of months back but our focus is still right at the top.

Here are some stocks of interest today...

TRR, we bit a little bit of this one today.    We liked its action lately and felt it's in play and can last a little longer. The company reported recently and has climbed about 40%. Co reports Q1 (Sep) EPS of $0.01 vs ($0.34) in yr ago period; reports gross revs of $102.9 mln vs $110.6 mln in yr ago period. Co reports Q2 (Dec) EPS of $0.05, ex-items, vs ($0.37) in yr ago period; reports gross revs of $114.5 mln vs $96.2 mln in yr ago period. Co sees Q3 gross revs of $115 mln.  This is a turnaround story as the co`restructures that is seemingly liked.  NCH

TATTF, finally, this is no stranger to DJIM Forum, IBD talk and we have played this one numerous times before.  It reported its best EPS-Revenue Q yet and after taking a beating from $28 Feb- March, this looks like it could make up some of the lost ground off this report.

PCS, is one of the best IPO`s of 2007.   It traded 20mln shares on its opening day and has not stopped moving up since. The wireless carrier is showing tremendous growth as it offers a flat monthly fee for unlimited airtime and other combos including internet access.  Today's action was selling on the news.  The news being the lead brokerages quiet period ended (actually last week) and four came out with price targets between $41 and $46, including 2 buy ratings.  You could see one determined seller in the morning that wouldn't go away, you dont need level 2 to see him. What happens many times is a few load up into the end of the quiet period to unload into the brokerages coverage. This was clearly what was going on today and you should always back off a little if you see a dude throwing up 3-5k consistently to sell.  We think this will hold the 9ema and turn back up once the seller is driven away.  We will look to add on such action as this stock is in the right space with great growth.

MFLO,  this is a stock we were buying around $21 a few days ago and have been in with smaller positions for a couple of days now.    We added some today given its relative strength compare to the rest of the market.   It notched a new high and we like the way it held up most of its gain through the end.  Like we said the other night, we think something is up here that we little people don`t  know about.

TBSI, last couple of days proved to be a good test on this one as it bounced off its 9 ema.    Today's strength may suggests that the run-up is not over but we aren't certain at this point what kind of follow through it'll get.   The good thing about this one here, is that it's only a buck off its high.

MA/FWLT, these two, despite their strength among the bigger names we follow, follow the index much more closely than many of the smaller caps.  You can almost see the intraday correlation between them and the index.   To us, we can still scalp some nice points off them given the volatile nature of this market.


Short week..

Boy it definitely feels like a long week to us.  Today's market is typical of summer action with exceptions to a couple of plays.  Really no conviction, somewhat expected after yesterdays move.   Most of the plays, according to our book, were trading in a fashion where we really don't care where they end up at the end of the day.   Hope tomorrow brings a little more action, even some volatility would be nice because today was a real snoozer.

MA, this play looks as though it can rest some here.   We liked its strong action for the past three days in a row but we feel even the strongest stocks should rest after a good move.   Given the float of the stock, there's a good chance that the stock may rest around here.

RCCC, this wireless play just keeps on moving u, fetching $33's today.  Right space, right time.

MFW, is another old DJIM flame that we bit some on late in the day. We like the move it made yesterday off a morning sell off, rebounding to finish strong. Today it carried on.

ESEA, we are adding this one to our watchlist and we've added a very small position today.   This one is in the same business as TBSI and both are exhibiting good strength in this market.


DJIM #23  2007

Last weekend the hope was a few billion dollar M&A deals to get the market stimulated again. A few billion turned into 60 billion worth of deals or more brought back from the Hampton's. Our one concern to stymie this market was if the Shang' would sooner than later unravel our market again.  A few did their best trying to make the stamp tax a double shot of the Shanghai surprise we saw early in the year. We didn't even touch on this in Wednesday's Journal because we saw it as a non event. As far as we're concerned, the Chinese government is gonna do things their way and it will take a few more maneuvers of this type to cause the bubble to burst and spread to here.  Likely they'll be careful now after the early year swoon.  Soon after the FOMC minutes came and we were off to the races.  Well...races, but not what we would call a sprint!.   Still...what last week did was provide some DJIM stocks an opportunity to come of their shell and play....So on to some names heading to the trading week...

TBSI, we are all familiar with this shipper now ( #8 IBD ), we were adding late in the day and think this is ready to resume upwards. While ESEA looks quite extended, TBSI keeps putting in tails off the 9ema (showing support).

ESEA, this shipper intro'd Thursday night turned into a 16% move come Friday. Yes, a full 16% as the open price (13.40) and later a dip gave a chance to catch most of this move. Of course, we took some profits but we were back for more during the day. The PE seemed to be below the norm for these shippers and probably helped out its cause.

DRYS, is another Greek shipper we took a position in.  If this sector continues to climb, we like where this one sits on the chart to play along. This is a good and fast mover when caught at the right time.  We took a smaller position as we wait to see if this has the ouzo to bust out.

MR CYNO, a couple of names here for months made it to IBD's front page this weekend as both busted out to new highs. CYNO was basing between 30-32 for about a month, while MR is getting quite jumpy, you really have no idea day to day what it is going to do.  Sometimes with quality names you just have stick it out.  The front page coverage might get them some more air this week. We'll see...

PCS, TTC, MFLO recent pick ups closed at NCH's or close.  A few others that have been around longer at DJIM.. GTI NTLS RCCC TRCR also remain strong.

FWLT CROX MA continue to get DJIM trading dollars, mostly on positive index days.  Not much can be said that hasn't been said about these stocks since their earnings.

NOVC, as we said, the easy money has been made and we are only looking to trade it when there is some signs of life. The biggest mistake you can make is trying to get a piece of NOVC, if you missed the first move.  Too may are looking for a repeat move.  It's not going to happen to that magnitude without more news, so there is no need to feel left out.  Also, do understand it is inevitable with biotechs that firms come out and raise targets to very high levels. They have no choice as now there is finally news.  These targets, sometimes 50-100% higher are looking a year and more down the road and are calculating a perfect storm of everything going right to that time.  The chances are a biotech will leave your mind in a week or two as another takes it's place.  It does with us.    Unless you are a long term speculative investor, you are unlikely to see those price targets hit for NOVC, CYBP etc.this summer.

PLPC, bought a few shares to tuck away, maybe this has a little HTC, EML in it. These types are only if you have space and time to spare in your book for some not so liquid stocks.


Carnage in the far east...concentrated

Fortunately, the damage in Shanghai did not spill over to North America.  On the contrary, we actually had a pretty good day for a lazy summer session and many DJIM type of stocks were particularly shiny today.   If the market was to get a shake, you'd have seen the beginning premarket.  Nothing of that sort happened as the FXI stayed calm and a few Chinese stocks were actually green. Instead of any housecleaning, we were buying most of the day.  Does today's action mean it's a sign of things to come?   We'd like to hope so but we aren't wagering all of our eggs in anticipating anything.    Basically, our game plan is not to get too over our heads in worrying about the big market movement, but rather, focus on individual plays and sectors that are attracting hot and momentum money.    Afterall, we are not economists that emphasize on theory which goes into the far future but we are traders that focus on the live battlefield level action day in and day out.    There are quite a few interesting plays today, so we are not going to waste anymore time and just go right into them...

TBSI, this is a play that we have been involved in the last couple of weeks or so.    What we really liked about this play is its text book style of action.   Sure, it doesn't have the heart pounding NOVC like of action but this one gave us the kind of setup that most traders would be happy for.    This one built a beautiful flag pattern last little while and it shot up today and closed near the high, with some good volume.    This is the kind of play we love b/c not only it gave us enough time to get in during the setup, but we are also able to built up a comfortable position that mattered in a very controlled, conservative, and highly probable way. A nice 5-6% day.

KMGB, this one came to our attention before the market opened and we immediately put it on our watchlist.  We actually put this one up back in 2005 and it doubled by the next morning.  That was its first stellar EPS Q.  Today it came out with earning that not only beat the analyst's estimate by a nice margin, but looked very good year over year, and sequentially, by our book.    After further checking its IBD number (92 98 now), we just couldn't help but start buying up shares.    Now, every once in a while you get a high calibre, high momentum IBD play that gets lots of traders' attention and we think this one is a very good candidate, after NGA that is.

ATLS AHD, a few weeks ago ATLS came on our radar after it acquired some assets and made a nice move. On the weekend, we had put AHD on our watch for the week because the chart made a NCH and was related to ATLS.  Before the open this all came together in a different way, the idea behind these names and a trade on news.  ATLS, which owns partner units of AHD announced the APL (Atlas Pipeline, LP), had made agreements to acquire assets of Anadarko and then Atlas Pipeline would distribute $$ per limited partner unit and increase distribution....LOL. Confused?. Hell yeah and all this doesn't mean anything to us!.  All we know is this was another 1 billion asset deal that was liked once, so why shouldn't it be once again. The fact the charts were prime and the trading action called for an entry in our book.

LPHI, this one definitely caught some wild fire after it guided up intraday. Early this year, we put this one up after a good EPS Q to look at. We wondered if a life settlement stock can actually get that sexy look.  It didn't for traders, but quietly it had almost doubled since.  We really couldn't speculate the true effect today until after the initial excitement settled down. This one can have some whacky spreads.  When it looked like there isn't any sign of pullback, basically there's only one place to go and that is up.   We are also trading this one aggressively. Co sees Q1 EPS to be approx $0.49 per share vs $0.11 single analyst est compared with earnings of $0.05 per share for the same period last year. The co also expects Q1 revs to be approx $17.5 mln vs $8.4 mln single analyst est compared with revenues of approx $6 mln last year.

TNH, after about three weeks of consolidation, we think this one is ready to break out again or at least test the high area.    Yes, it's a $90 dollar stock and we aren't discriminating any stocks that we feel have the potential to pull a good move. We all know the power of the MA, CROX, FWLT expensive plays now, don't we!.  We are monitoring the action closely. The mid May high is around 92.50 after the sell off.  Today was the first day it closed over 90 since.

There were quite a few new positions /stocks taken today.  This shouldn't take the spotlight away from this Q's DJIM plays that had a very good day.  TRCR +14%, CUB +6%, RCCC 3.9%, IDSA +4%, GTI +2%.  Not bad for a day the DJIA up 8pts and the NASD up 4pts.



A true test...

If yesterday was a good test of your holdings against a shaky market, then today definitely gives a true appreciation of how "good" your holds are.     Of course, if we get few more back to back shaky days like today, it probably wouldn't have mattered much what you hold.   Overall, we think the market action is healthy.    For whatever the catalyst/excuse that caused the slide, it's needed to correct this market into a healthier stand.    This is assuming that this is not the beginning of an end for this market here.   At this point, we don't believe it is and we are acting that way also.

We have a number of good closes today and given another hour, we think some more stocks culd have battled their way into the green.    Individualism is running full and strong in this market today.   Breadth is poor but if most of your holdings are in green territory, you'd feel that you are doing something right and will try to keep it up.   Can you imagine if last two days were up?   We'd been asking that question throughout last couple of days...

KMGB LPHI,  these two were the stars two days off their respective earnings announcement and they've held up very well despite the market weakness.   We added some LPHI today because we feel this one has had the best action amongst our holds.

CROX, good stock battles back and this one did exactly that toward the end.     As it comes near its split date and we think the action will heat up accordingly.

AHD, so this one only did less than 40k shrs today.   This stock also has only 4 mill float and probably less if you take into account the institutional holders.    We liked the deal that was announced couple of days ago and think this one definitely has the potential to move up.

GHM CUB put in very respectable green days as well.

Many recent names here such as NTLS MFW LXU RCCC ATLS TTC SPAR MA TBSI barely broke a sweat in the profit taking sweep across the market,  even the volatile TNH battled at over $95 till the last 30 minutes. 

One we added today, VSNT (Co reported May29th,Q2 EPS of $0.52 vs $0.32 in 2Q06; revs rose 37% YoY to $5.2 mln (no estimates). Co raises FY07 guidance to $1.50-1.62) falls into above category.  But as we said at the start, if we get more shaky days it probably won't matter what you hold.  Unless it's cash of course.



Hump day..

Unfortunately, there isn't much to get over on hump day Wednesday following these last two days, which might be a good thing!. Considering the market has done little but trade in a tight range following the gap up, this lull might be more positive than anything else.  Still this market is driven now by the slightest news, so what might look positive can change in a flash.  Tomorrow is an important transport  FDX earning that might move things one way or another.  In the meantime, we'll continue to look at for the next new mover or the next move in an already played DJIM stock as in a couple today...

CMED, this one can catch the momo as seen this morning and this possibility is one reason we entered yesterday..playing off its history. Now that the stock has come down from its lofty heights following its IPO date in 2005, it might be ready for another leg up off its latest earning. Today's early morning spike to 32.98 might be due to a brokerage call on it and there might be more to follow. By adding another product line recently, it's growth is likely to keep ticking. As we said in our initial alert, its trading can be erratic. The good thing about that is it provides new buying opportunities.

AIRT, the good part of a slow moving market is it gives you time to lurk around some plays in more detail. Today we spotted a potential 'nibble' to be at around $10.50 that materialized into a move over $11. As other recent plays that are comparable to AIRT dry out,  we might get more traders coming to this fresh play. Today's chart might catch an eye or two as well now.

RCCC, last night we touched on RCCC as a potential trade to watch today. If you had it close on hand, maybe you were able to get something out of the nearly 4pt rebound.  When a stock climbs like RCCC from say $15 to over $40 in a few months sooner than later you get a biggie breakdown. They are inevitable and the same probably is the case for KMGB late in the day...

KMGB, and on the 15th of trading day following earnings it fell through the chimney and stomped its butt on the 9ema!. There was nothing we could see for the drop other the inevitable drop after 15 or so days of solid gains, especially for a low float winner.  We dont consider this play over at all and took this as an opportunity to get some back.  It might fall more tomorrow even if there is nothing of news substance, but like RCCC did today...we expect this to move back up.  We'll most likely start building up a position back up as the dust settles or see buying come in.  This sector is not going to fade off into the distance, today it was the #1 performer for most of the day and it will be again and again. We'd be more careful with TNH now.

CUB, continues on and today it was an extension of a big contract. Now nearly 50% since we alerted, we can say it has been recognized as a defense play as we noted it would sooner than later.

SDTH, it just feels its not far away from another leg up. With China cheapies getting play today, don't be surprised if it swings to here if the mania continues into tomorrow.

Also TBSI is back as one to possibly move into as it made a NCH today. ESEA is around as well.


Jun202007 a hot knife through buttah!

You can only churn and churn so much before the inevitable happens.  The inevitable could be a spike up or as said last night it could change in a 'flash' to the other side...down.  There is a mystery out there as to what transpired this afternoon.  In our view,  we churned so much the past few days, we became butter.   Briefing is left blaming it on the Bear Stearns hedge fund trouble because of subprime.  Hold on there...didn't we get past this and the possibilities that the subprime story could have created.  This news was also known on the 18th without a tear dropped. Another view is the bond yield soared!.   Puleeeze.... we just peaked at 5.30% and today it "soared" to 5.15 from 5.09%.!  Come on!.   All we can confirm once more is traders seem to go to the bathroom holding hands.   What is about 2pm that makes them go?.   Just like in skool, they all are seemingly instructed to holds hands and enter..or is it exit as was the case today.   As far as we can see, and we really don't want to see too far as we are trading for the moment (short term).. is that today was another day of churning that made holders weak and they were then easily sliced through at the first sign of a hot knife through buttah!!!. We all lose patience and the slightest tick of selling showed many the door, even if the news is not clear or if there is none at all of true importance.   They wait and wait and if the tick aint up, it doesn't take much to create a wave of selling.  Today it happened in a flash and it wasn't something that headlined , but one that left many scrounging for answers as to why after the close.  

We are looking at the Nasdaq here and will not get that bearish feeling maybe until/ if 2590ish is broken end of day.  What we expect here is the gap from Friday to hold and some buying to come in tomorrow.   Now, if we get some morning news to favor the Bears, well then we ain't going to get the buying, are we?.  

Basically, there was no real damage done to most of the stocks followed here at DJIM...

Still, this morning provided some opp's to either take some profits or just make the late selling not that big of a deal in a particular stock.  The names we are alluding to are stocks like....

KMGB, was a either a great trade off yesterdays plunge or just a good excuse to start another position in it.  Not bad if you picked up even at the open and not during yesterday late day fall, $23 to a high 24.70's and not a bad finish after all.  We'll hold tight.

SDTH, last night we pointed out the potential of this catching maybe some of the China mania we saw yesterday.  Maybe it spilled into it this morning, but we think it is more of this being a Chem-fertilizer with excellent earning then some beaten down cheap China stocks they've been speculating on into today's action again.   You could have enjoyed the trip to 5.90's or/and you could be very pleased with a NCH on this by close. Volume was good and there was interest left in the day for it not to be involved in the selling activity. A few were panicky, but the smart ones might have bought it back up by the close.  Last night we said don't be surprised.  Tonight, we repeat don't be surprised but with more conviction.

GTLS,  it made a nice move 26.80 to 27.50's after noted today and then got vacuumed by the market draft later on.   Well, at least now you know how it can move...up and down and why we've liked to trade it some before.   As far as the timing of the alert and how it coincides with a 1 minute chart today, all we could say is to each his own...own trading motives.  Some background on Chart Industries inc....manufactures and supplies engineered equipment used in the production, storage, and end-use of hydrocarbon and industrial gases. It operates in three segments: Energy & Chemicals(E&C), Distribution and Storage (D&S), and BioMedical.  A MS analyst gave it a $38 buy tgt today and said this is a possible next in line to Dresser-Rand which doubled since October.

Despite the close today, some morning movers held on to what they could to close green. These include CMED, TBSI, CROX, MFLO. CUB . As we said before....nothing was severely damaged that we follow and we'd look to capitalize on any rebound after today is digested late this week. Remember, we expect and welcome volatility this summer and considering today was nothing compared to what we witnessed just over a week ago in that 3 day sell off, it's not the end of the world as we know it.....Simply if you didn't act hastily during that plunge after day 3...why should you now with nothing concrete to push you over the edge.

A nice reversal is quite important tomorrow.... no matter what you make of today's exaggerated move.


Better than nothing....

"We are looking at the Nasdaq here and will not get that bearish feeling maybe until/ if 2590ish is broken end of day.  What we expect here is the gap from Friday to hold and some buying to come in tomorrow.   Now, if we get some morning news to favor the Bears, well then we ain't going to get the buying, are we?." 

Well...we didn't get any news noise in the morning but we still got an early continuation bump from yesterday, which was hardly a surprise considering what was a sizeable drop.  By 10am we hit that 2590ish mark (2586 low to be exact) and the rest is history.  Last night we thought there was no reason to fret, simply the bears caught the bulls napping after 3 days of churning yesterday.  That's the way we felt while it was all going on and later last night after catching our breath.   If it was the yield climbing yesterday...why didn't we go lower as it climbed to 5.19% today?.    Are we satisfied with today's reversal?.   The answer is no, but that could change tomorrow.   You see DJIM stocks have a way outperforming the indices and not performing on par when the market rallys.   We have seen this time and time again and have written about it many times.   Despite the rally today, it was really only for the techs on the Nasdaq...even the big caps really didn't perform to NASD snuff.   There were a few DJIM's that bounced nicely off low's...MA 6 pts...TNH 12 pts..FWLT got in the grove late for 3 pts, but the problem was with many of the small-micro caps that have been running here that didn't perform as we would have liked.   This list includes SDTH, KMGB, CMED, LXU, AIRT, VSNT etc. but a few did like LPHI, TBSIGHM  (34k vol. woo hoo).   Still..besides the few it was uninspiring in the scope of things, but at least yesterdays fall did not continue today.   So..maybe we shouldn't be so picky....Yeah right!.  Let others and their niches have a good time while we are predominately left out.   NO WAY, JOSE!

If today wasn't just a blip like the fall yesterday was....well then we expect some action in the DJIM stocks that did little today to move tomorrow. This is even if the market digests today's gains and does little all day...but we do have the Blackstone (BX)  IPO tomorrow, which should help the karma on the trading floors.  Maybe it can spread...



Almost identical...

The index action today is... you guessed it.. almost identical as yesterday's.    The only difference is that today's point range is not nearly as dramatic as yesterday's.    Individual action, however, is not as bad today compared to yesterday.   As you can tell, this is somewhat comical that we are actually analyzing and comparing daily movement.    Such is summer trading, unfortunately.    If we really want to sit inside an air conditioned room on a hot day like today, we just couldn't help but trying to digest every little bit of volatility.    Is the earning season almost here yet? lol

Lets take a look at some of the strong plays out there in what is otherwise a very shaky, on the edge of its seat market....

TNH, some of us may actually get tired of even looking at this one on a daily basis.  The truth is, it's up 45% since our latest alert of around $90 about 3 weeks ago and it's just been a monster ever since it broke $100.   Folks, forget about those cheapies that may get you a "sizable" position.   Park a few hundred shares in this one and you'd be all set for this summer.    Ok, it isn't that simple but we do want to stress that this is the kind of play we favour the most.    So eventually this one will get sold off so we are keeping our stops very tight.   

LPHI, ok, so we don't have any clue why it's doing what it's doing ever since the earning report.   We liked this one a lot back when it reported a few weeks ago but nothing stuns us more than the latest action this one is getting, irrespective of market environment that is.   Now for a stock to pull a double from $20 range in as little as a month, is just something we have to give our highest respect for.   Even though this one has been on our play list for a while, we do feel that we haven't given it enough attention/time to fully taking advantage of its performance.   So what is our game plan now then?   The higher it goes without a pullback, the more cautious we get on any slight downtick.   In fact, it does feel that a strong pullback is imminent.   So if you are still in this one from day one, make sure you monitor this one very very closely.

RCCC, one of our favourite plays the past few months, came back and got a nch today.  This one, unlike LPHI above, has had its share of consolidation last little while and we are just not as cautious when chasing this one.    For what it's worth, we think there's potentially some more upside on this one.

TBSI, those darn shippers just can't all move together.   No matter, the idea of playing sector is always go after the top performer.  In this case, we feel this one is the best performer in that sector, much like TNH and FSLR in their respective sector.    This one made a new high and we followed through with some shares.

HOKU, some of our readers have brought this one up and we just want to say that when looking at a play like this one, it is crucial to understand the players behind the action.   This one has traded twice its float two days in a row and there's no doubt this belongs to the day trading crowd, for the most part.   If you really want to try this one, make sure you keep your eyes on the 5 min. chart and as well as the volume, and hope somebody else buys it higher from you.


here comes the earning season...

Perhaps we just forgot how much fun it is to trade during the earning season the last few weeks.    Good thing is, earning season is almost upon us and in fact, we even got a taste of what may be another opportunistic season tonight.    RIMM set it off tonight with a very strong report and the AH action more or less confirmed people's belief.     This is something all of us have been looking forward to for a while now.     Well, enjoy the weather and the up coming holiday because we need to buckle up right after that for some potentially intense trading afterwards.

Today's the Fed day!    Did most people even set this event on their calendar?    We certainly did not!  We felt the action today is more or less in line with what's been happening past few days, Fed meeting or not.     In terms of individual action, we have to conclude that it's a productive and positive day for the most part.    Here are some notables from today...

PENX, this chemical co. came out with a very strong report in the morning and we felt the report is strong enough to warrant our attention.   We bought a starter in the early going and added as it strengthened.     Given the volume and attention it received today, it's very likely that this one is being put in play by many traders.    Just like KMGB, LPHI in the past, we are going to be chasing PENX aggressively on strength.

LDK, ok, the closing price may be a little fishy but this one did stay relatively strong for the most part.   We added some during the day and will look to trade it higher as long as the solar sector is still in favour.

TBSI, this one definitely is trading a lot better the past week and two compare to the time when we started trading it first back in mid May.   It notched a new high today and we added a little to go along with it.

SNHY, this play has been consolidating for last while.   It broke out today and stayed strong till the end.   We are not sure if this breakout can generate a nice follow through but we are willing to bet that it can.   


DJIM #27 2007

One thing is for sure, the only thing that can seem to wake people up in this market is "earnings"!    The past week was filled with some dramatic volatility.   In the early part of the week it seems that market was ready to give up.    We had back to back days of strong opening and a very weak close.    Both indices were flirting around 50 ema and it just looked that shaky.    Come into rescue toward the end of the week is of course the prospect of the earning season.   The fed decision is once again a none  factor in this market this time of the year.    We feel many people are sitting on the sideline waiting for some good earning opportunities to get into.     From the big cap earnng front, RIMM definitely sets the tone as well as the benchmark for others to follow.   20% gain in one day given RIMM's market cap is still a very big deal, regardless of its momentum status.   To put this into perspective, GOOG has to gain over 100 bucks in one day just to gain 20% and that'd be just something unthinkable at this point of GOOG's growth cycle.

So what are we really looking forward to at this point?   Earnings, of course!   The earning season usually starts with Alcoa kicking off and that comes around second week of July.   Our game plan is the same as before, go after the winners early and aggressively.   If the apparent "winner" does not get the kind of attention we wanted, we simply move on for our next kill.    With earning season, we'd usually be busy enough to trade multiple earnings winners at same time.  So rest assured, if one doesn't work out, there'd always be the other one or two that will work out.    Now the key in trading that kind of strategy, is to stay with the winner, at all time.      We had a little taste of the earnings drive last few weeks from the likes of LPHI KMGB TNH FSLR RCCC TBSI... etc.   All of them have returned substantial gain given our usual time frame.      So be prepared and be ready, both financially and mentally, because the next 3 to 5 weeks of trading is probably the only trading matters in the summer.

Here are some stocks that are worth reviewing over the past week....

PENX, one thing about this earning winner is that it never had this kind of volume in its past quarters.   Perhaps, this quarter's number is just that good, or it is the fact that it's in a sector people really go gun ho about.   In any case, we the momentum traders may also have something to do with its latest volume surge.    Well folks, this baby is in play and that's all you need to know.     Remember our favourite strategy,  if you missed the first runup lets say from $24 to whatever price it stalls, the first pullback should always be bought, aggressively!   We are fortunate that we caught majority of the move so far but the rest of our game plan is still the same.   Just because we did well the first run up doesn't mean that we can slack off on the second time around.    So keep a close eye on this one and trade on the long side aggressively.    Always put the 9 ema up and imprint it in your mind to know where it is at all time.    Nobody wants to miss another RCCC or LPHI type of move again.    The funny thing is, at this point, we don't think people even care about their actual eps number anymore.   There's really no need to extrapolate their number to calculate a "proper" valuation price or assign P/E or whatever.    Know this, this one is in play and professional traders like us and others are trading sizable shares to drive this one higher.

KMGB, almost a month ago, this one came out with a strong report.   One month later, this one is roughly 30% higher, and it closed with a NCH on Friday.    Ok, we didn't stay in this one the whole one month.   As far as we did, we basically traded two runup.   The first runup was from the initial earning/IBD and second runup, which we are still in it, started couple of days ago as per our alert.    The coming week should be interesting since this one did not make it to IBD100 again but we think this shouldn't be an issue any more.    Float is pretty tiny for this one so as long as the chemical sector is in play, we'd like this one's odds to go much higher.

TNH, speaking of chemical sector, this one is probably the epitome of chemical stocks during the last three months or so.    The recent 10 point drop in one day may set a warning sign of its extended runup but we are still keeping this one as one of our favourite trading stock.   If you look at its chart, it hasn't closed "below" 9 ema ever since the breakout area of $90 and we think as long as this is the case, this one is still relatively safe to play.    The only thing of concern lately is that the volatility is getting to the extreme side of things and it may eventually crack its uptrend completely.

TBSI/DRYS, when shippers move, they move together and we like these two the best.   They both notched a new closing high on Friday and we'd see if this generates a new round of enthusiasm in the coming days.

FSLR/JASO/LDK, so once again solar plays have been hot lately.   Out of all of the solar plays we have touch based before, these three are the closest to their respective all time high.    If anything, we'd be trading among these three when the sector is having a good day.


DJIM #28 2008

In a typical holiday week trading fashion, things just went by quickly.    At the beginning of the week, we stressed out the importance of holiday week.   True to our belief, there was no shortage of plays and many were very opportunistic.    As the week has gone by, we are basically back to the point where we expect a flurry of earning reports.    Unlike the other quarters, this earning period seems to last the shortest with possibly the worst market reaction.    This is typical of this time of the year.    However, judging by the enthusiasm we've seen during the past few weeks, it doesn't really feel that we are slowing down, as far as trading goes.    Perhaps this has alot to do with the fact that the market is sitting relatively near the year high.   When the market is at or near the high, there always tend to be opportunities, and people always tend to be optimistic and are willing to put money into work.    This is just the way our psychology works.

So far, we had RIMM to thank for.   In the coming weeks, we are going to see more reports coming out.   Some reports will be praised and some will not be.    As far as our game plan goes, we are going to sift through reports that spawn the strongest trading reaction, positively of course.   We'd try to catch those that hopefully give us enough time and room to play.     

here are some strong plays from last week that may carry over into the coming week....

DRYS/TBSI, these two are the only two shippers we played last week and both of them pretty much closed out the week near the high.   At this point, we like DRYS's chart slightly better as TBSI looks a little too extended at this point.   However, we've learned too much from the past that we can only be so cautious.    A play will run its course whenever it decides to.   For us, even when we decided we should raise our cautionary flag, we'd still only keep it in the back of mind and react quickly once the reversal does happen.    Basically, we just have to be better prepared when the action gets too extended.

LPHI, this one is beginning to look better now.   After its initial sell of and the breach of 9 ema, it seems to stabilize the last few days.    If it can break the $36 area, we'd be back in full force.

AZZ, this one had a pretty good earning reaction and last few days have just been phenomenal.    It's now back near the old high and we'd see if it gather enough momentum to start a fresh legup from this point.

FWLT, volume didn'st seem to drop that much last week.   This is a good sign as the stock basically broke out from its consolidative trendline.   How high can it go or will it go?     We don't know but we know that we'll play this one untill the music stops.

FSLR/JASO/LDK/TSL,  we added TSL to the group last week.   This group has done some nice work last week.   As long as the 9 ema is in tact, we are trading them actively.

PENX, can this one pull a LPHI or RCCC?   In honesty, we'd like to see this one consolidate a bit.   The sooner it can consolidate, the better chance it can pull another runup.    We are keeping our eyes on this one very closely.

DDUP/SCOR, these two recent tech IPOs are hot on our list last couple of days.   We like their action in conjunction with the rest of the tech sector.   We think the runup will definitely carry into next week and we'd be trading these two aggressively.

Other notable gainers last week include SPAN MBLX GTLS CUB BTJ TRCR...