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Entries in TSL (2)


Stubborn/ resilient or ?

One question arises after the past 2 trading days…How long can this last?.   Simply, the market is ploughing higher oblivious to negatives and lack of leadership.  Take Friday, a move higher off led by Semi equipment (laggards ) overshadowing an RRR hike in China and more hawkish European noise. Today,  AAPL medical leave negative for tech, C' earnings negative for financials, hot UK inflation are seemingly ignored.    Add, no revamp particulars yet on bailout from the Eurofin meetings and market doesn’t get disappointed either. Euro was strong early, so guess the market saw progress in talks. (see yesterday note). 

Are stronger (Ahead of) than expected earnings Q4 prints going to be enough to hold up the market?. 


  • Momentum/earnings/“winners of ‘10 –   Excellent prints from IBM  (for software) and AAPL. There’s no doubt Jobs medical leave will outweigh anything ‘excellent’ AAPL  throws out in the short term, so it will be better to watch the ramifications of IBM’s earnings on others and how it trades tomorrow.  Recently Nov end Q’s in ORCL RHT tipped IBM’s hand, so some of this beat might be in the market.  Today’s action, despite the AAPL brick on the indicies, tech held up well.  Unfortunately, this excludes the action in FFIV, RVBD, CRM types. The 9ema is providing support for now.  While the mega caps excelled, the component stocks like CREE LLTC had disappointing inventory correction themes.
  • Commodities-  Same trend continues as Ag’s -Ferts  remain the best sub group. Strength in solars (TSL FSLR  on Shadowlist), but not sure of catalyst or it’s ability to last.
  • Financials- A ton of names to report on Wed. (inc GS WFC) to potentially (hope) negate C’s print.  

..Cheap is in

Today, the market officially entered the Twilight zone as Dow smells 12K on the heels of IBM, GE, etc. stuff.  Oh boy, now valuation takes precedent over higher multiple/beta names!.  If this keeps up our 2011 Shadowlist will look a Value Mutual Fund, so basically the market better ‘correct’ at some point to make ‘growth’ stocks look like values again.


  • Momentum/earnings/“winners of ‘10–   VMW  earnings were top line strong, but a few negatives (on margins and some cautious remarks) is enough disappointment for 2010 winners to come up for sale, particulary the ‘clould’ space.   Even before the report the sector was flush with early selling in APKT RVBD CRM FFIV  in a rallying market as investors have given up seemingly since FFIV report and instead flock to lower valuation tech earnings.

Shadowlist addition:  A one time DJIM play returns off a record Q at~$20. (SILC)

  • Commodities-  Weak dollar/China continue to make the space a mixed bag.  Solars  (shadows FSLR, TSL ),noted last week are still moving forward.   A conviction buylist reco’ boosts FSLR , but the group is mostly moving ahead and into the State of Union address (Tues.)and renewable energy speak.