What's in the future?

A month into the new year, with the big earnings peak behind us now, we are wondering what is going to happen to this market the next short while.    Although the longer term view is pretty much the same regardless what happened during the past few weeks,  most of us are wondering what plays/sectors will become attractive this Q.

It's almost inevitable that we'd get some retracement/ consolidation after the two strong trading days that started the week.  With no buyers or sellers around today, it would make sense all parties are waiting to see if a retracement gets some steam and holds near recent lows.   In any case,  we have to be prepared either for some more downside, some ranged trading or some upside.    Ummm, it sounds like we are "good" fortune tellers, right?   Kidding aside,  we are currently in a situation where only the market can give us a better clue where it will take us, short term wise.    In our view, we'd be glad to have some sideway action in order for our plays to establish stronger support.    A lot of the technical damage was done during the latest sell off,  so it's imperative for many plays to settle down and have some strong hands to get involved in the stock and push over 9ema.    At the same time, we have been particularly surprised by the strength of the corporate earnings front, especially from the technology sector.     Now, whether people do even pay attention to those earning reports or not is a different story, we are just here to point out the stuff that will matter sooner or later. 

But…More importantly now and we're 'bolding' this on site…

Unfortunately, now Bear momentum is gaining for this to become ‘Year of the PIIGS”  early on and it has nothing to do with Chinese zodiac.  Greece mess up is one thing,  but when you start to throw in Portugal, Spain as they are starting today..be careful!.   This didn’t just start in 2010, just as US crisis didn’t start in ‘08 with Lehman BSC, but in ‘07.…so if this is gaining steam we all better be careful till some clarity emerges.   The problem here is this isn’t in our time zone and you’ll have deal with uncertainty to wake with in regards to your stock book,  we had the US crisis before us on CNBC minute after minute making it easier to deal with. 

In after hour action, CSCO came out with a report/guidance that appear to be very strong as many of the other ‘big‘ names this Q.    Can it be enough to get the market over 1105?    Probably not as tech reports are not exciting to investors to move forward so far.  Also, we have NFP on Friday to test sentiment.    However, we do want to point out that those tech companies that have been recently cheered or is jeered by investors due to their strong earning  are still within the striking distance of recent high should be on trader's radar going forward.    

Also, MKSI, a small tech company, came out with report that beat the estimate by a big margin and raised their next quarter's estimate by quite a bit.    This is also the type of earning surprise we'd like to see and we’d put it on your trading list.

Bottom line, market may need few more days/ weeks to pick a direction but we have to prepare in advance. 

DJIM #7 2010

A whipsaw week finshed as it opened.  The market continued it’s up and down routine right to the end as China ‘RRR’ so-called surprise headline hit Friday premarket sending the SPX to low 1060’s once again.   As pointed out premarket, we didn’t see it as a surprise feeling any negative reaction would be exaggerated.  The fear mongers were out early, but rationality set in as the day progressed and CNBC began to have guests on that believed the same thing we did and the market started to rally back on the heels of tech.    We’ve been saying we need a meaningful close above 1071 and now we have back to back ones that should change the tone to a more technial positive one for the short term.   Also, finally, we had some dip buying come back to the market.  Some buying was probably generated by better than expected eco’ data (Jobless claims, Retail).  Last week was pretty quiet on US eco’ data,  despite the shortened week ahead, it will be busier and important as we get fresh looks at February data.

All eyes were on commodity linked stocks last week,  but tech ($SOX) quietly came in the back door and duplicated it’s Thursday move on Friday as some money started to rotate into them from commods’.   As pointed out,  we think this is anticipation of some earnings reports in the upcoming week from some big names.   Market might be anticipating more estimate revisions because of the reports coming up, giving potential for a bounce in the sector.

On the topic of earnings and tech many names from February released reports (mostly January Q end) are trading well.  Names this Q include, VECO  NETL DLB  and cheaper names like SFLY APKT MKSI  and stocks in other groups like HAR CMI EMS  have also had good reactions.  

M&A activity in Ag’ space this weekend may provide a bid to these linked stocks.

Market is still on a fog on as it tries to look at something it can’t see clearly..Greece, China.  These are market stresses, but, if the market concentrates some more on what’s happening here, hopefully with the help of some eco‘ data this week,  it has a chance to stay away from recent lows.   Importantly,  there are some open spots in the fog to trade day to day, eg. commodity linked stocks or possibly some more tech ahead.   Either way, recent earning plays are providing a pretty good place to trade.

Shadowlist update

Shadowlist by sector money flow/ rotation to follow. (visit site). 

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