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Entries in SYNL (14)


Resiliency continues...

We definitely had some resilient action going on today.   There's just not enough force to knock this market down, especially DJIM stocks.     In any case, we feel that a big market move is in the cards to get us out of this range bound trading environment.    At this point, it's almost pointless to speculate which way the market wants to go.   The only thing we can do is to be prepared one way or the other.   Fortunately the indecision of the market isn't deterring some movers from the small cap land.    Here are some few worth noting...

EML, what else are you gonna talk about first? lol    Again, this one followed through very nicely and we added some.    When it comes to an earning play like this one, it's very hard to say where the initial run-up will end and stop.    What we do know, however, is that the first pullback has to be bought aggressively.   How high can the initial run-up can go?   Your guess is as good as ours and we just have to take it day by day.

EDU HMIN,  in the case of EDU, yesterday in the forum we said around $40.50 this is being walked up to the offering price..Well..well,  the pricing for the secondary was announced tonight at $41.50/shr. For EDU, that's heck of a pricing.   We think the recent rise in price in conjunction with this pricing is the fact there's lots of institutional demand for this share offer.   This one is definitely interesting as 7 million shares at 40+ bucks isn't chump change for institutions.    Basically, we like this one again(what else is new), now that the cloud is lifted.    HMIN, simply broke out!   We bought this breakout as mentioned in the Forum after noting on it and we are looking for follow throughs.   Again, at this stage either take the points on moves and wait for a pullback or just stick through the tough days cause it just keeps going higher. You should know how it works by now.

VE,  this euro has been a nice steady performer from 68's and it's definitely not a small Tonight we noticed its been upgraded to a buy by Dresdner in Europe.  Looks like a $77 area target.  Analysts at Dresdner Kleinwort upgrade Veolia Environnement SA from "hold" to "buy." The target price has been raised from E48 to E60.  In a research note published this morning, the analysts mention that the company secured extra revenues of about €1.5 billion per annum from contract wins and acquisitions in 2006. Veolia Environnement is poised to increasingly benefit from its maturing contracts, the analysts believe. These contracts offer visibility into cash flows, which the company can reinvest to maintain above-average profit growth, Dresdner Kleinwort adds. Veolia Environnement has limited commodity exposure, the analysts add.

GLDN, talk about resiliency!!. Just incredible $4 dollar move from 9ema levels in one day.  If you're reading the Journal, Forum..looking at charts you are up to speed and probably making nice trades in this stock.  Believe it or not, this finished 4 cents off a NCH after yesterdays dismal day.  Will it bust out soon or will this become a visit to a potential wall?.  Give us a good Naz and this baby will go higher!

MFW, AVZA had nice days and finished right up there at the highs and we were adding to both along the way.

MDCI, last night we said the action was better than the earnings.  Today, we can only say the action was worse than the earning indicates.  A few things...yesterdays action, especially the close was probably toooo ' good and we probably should have exited the last 10 minutes when the stock had a final big stick up.   Unfortunately, the action by noon today showed we should leave for the time being.   Something might have been said at the CC after the close and for us it's always better to leave and ask questions later.  It also could have been a D grade, likely on valuation.  We don't care much for these as we've seen plenty of stocks shake these off quickly.  We think this one will, maybe as quickly as tomorrow on split day and we will aggressively buy back to add to our original starter.

CGX, we added today to this name as the action was much better than what you saw in MDCI.  An almost identical day to MDCI yesterday and today this one showed it might be the better of the two.

SSRX,  this one is actually a Chinese biotech IPO from yesterday.  Its debut action was not impressive but today's action felt much better.   This is a profitable co. as well and we bought a starter position in this one.  There are lots of IPO's the last few days, we're dipping here for a start around $16.

SYNL, thin stock seem to rule these days.   Earning came out and it didn't take much for this one to move.  We are keeping a close eye on this one to see if there's any follow through.  We have some thoughts on it in the Forum, we are looking for the angles (eth) here more than the earnings to play it in the future.



That's what we think of the index move today.   Of course, if you listened to CNBC all day, this is nothing but another rosy day for this market.    If this is an actual rally, why do we find lack of opportuntities to trade?    Trust our eyes, instead of our ears!    You can trade deaf, but you can't trade blind!   Ok, enough of this corny wisecracks! lol   The truth is, we aren't finding many opportunities to trade today,  so we sat mostly on our hands.  There might not be a load to play, but there sure have some nice points in ONXX BW and CENX the last 2 days here.  Selective is the name of the game, now!  A few things that looked interesting today besides these names..

CENX USAP,   CENX obviously got some bid early on b/c of the Alcoa news, but hey Alcoa was the reason we picked this as the Aluminum play over ERS in small cap land.   Anyway, this is very natural b/c this is how the sympathy plays work and hope some of you played it off the alert, if you already don't have it as a hold.   Last week in the forum, we wondered why CENX was lagging the sec. at $44 off the upgrades of the big aluminum plays.  Today all this paid off as it spiked to $49 in the first 10 minutes.  A day like this sure gets CENX's name out there as a sec play, even though there may be absolutely no chance for CENX to get any kind of benefit from a potential Alcoa takeover.   Ride it while the effect lasts!     USAP may also benefitted a little from the AA news,  so it's not a surprise.  What we're glad to see is that USAP held its 9 ema convincingly.   Lets just cross our fingers and hopefully it gets some good trading from this point on.

OEH, our lux lodging play into EPS put it's first close in over $49 NCH and VE, put its first close over $72 while here at DJIM. Guess, it pays to have some NYSE stocks to follow in the middle of the takeover, record share repurchase blab about the Dow.

EML SYNL, not much to say about these two and we are hoping these can turn into a flag pattern.

CGX, this one really showed what we like and that is immediate strength after it gave up some of the early gains following earning.

Basically, we are biting our time with this market.   It doesn't mean that we are going hibernation but we are simply waiting for something to happen.    Knowing this game, something will always happen sooner or later and they come at a time when you are least expected.


SYNL Synalloy Corporation / EML Eastern Company

Looking to find the next gem to put under your pillow?.  SYNL was first on DJIM at the open at $16 last Q, now it is trading at $26.40 with IBD #'s of 99 97 and more than 60% higher than that day in October.  In October, we also profiled another undiscovered stock by the name of EML at around $18.  This Q it reported breakout earnings and has traded to almost $28.  Up over 50% since DJIM first covered the company.  These are a few examples of companies we like to call undiscovered crawlers, but this is just one facet of DJIM trading/investing which includes almost daily alerts on the days next possible fast mover.  Also because we follow these companies closely,  it allowed DJIM readers to be right there in the early action on the most recent earnings releases.  For a complete list of winners from the 2nd half of 2006,  visit our preview section in the navigation bar. Scroll down to see some of the catches of 2007!.

SYNL.gifMonday, October 23, 2006 at 09:30AM-  SYNL, Excellent Q from this very thin traded, low float stock (5mln). Anything to do with pipes and chemicals we usually like...As usual we don't chase and end up holding the top, watch reaction..volume etc for a possible entry as we always say. .39 vs. 09EPS for Q (2.4mln vs.525k time small gain in there it seems...still this look good with eps in the .30's., backlog sweet

eastern_co1.jpgMonday, October 2, 2006 at 12:50PM-  EML was developing a latch for Humvees in '05, last week was the pay off as they received a first order and then a second from Armor Holdings (AH) to retrofit humvees. The 2 contracts worth "31 mln" will be split between the next 2 Q's (sales to hit between SEPT-MAR).. Eastern makes about 100mln in Revenue a year....hmmm nice bump coming as soon as next report.  The stock is extremely thin but moved nicely late last week due to a 3/2 split announced. The real news is the contracts that were not released in a official PR but sit quietly in the sec. filings. The chart is nice, the split works and the potential for thousands of more HV's to be retro-fitted and therefore revenues climbing. Added to DJIM holds....wanted to intro this on a dip but now not sure that will come soon enough.


Year of the Pig!

We are definitely enjoying this first trading day of the Pig year.    Of course, the word Pig in Chinese is usually associated with prosperity as opposed to our association of greed.    But today, we are just enjoying being a pig, in either association. lol      Action is pretty broad across the DJIM land and many stocks gained momentum as the index crossed into the green territory.      Here are some highlights...

KRSL, we highlighted this one late Friday and suggested a possible gap up today.   Well we got a gap up and the stock spent plenty of time above $22 today.   That's almost five point play from where we alerted.    We aren't being greedy here and sold most of the trading positions and left with a small trading position.   If this thing gets further momentum tomorrow, we'll definitely chase it but with a controlled pace.  The play as noted was to take advantage of a potential gap we thought we could already see in the $17's Friday being formed....How?...big fat crystal ball! more like a gut of experience.  We did give out the same trade in EFUT, FFHL for gap po'!.  Sometimes its not the length of stay but what you get of it.  If you can get 3-5 pts in 1 day of trading, you're not going to risk it the next day(s).

KBW, we were also surprised by its earning and thought it just seemed to good to be true.   This financial company IPO'ed not too long ago and currently have 4 analysts rate it as a hold with low estimate going forward.   This in our opinion will sure change as analysts will have to raise their estimate based on its report today.   The stock also has a very small float and financial stock in this market cap range always look attractive to us.   We are gonna be trading this one higher.

HURC SYNL CGX BW TRT,  all these recent earnings play have enjoyed some nice follow through and made new closing highs.  FSLR FCN are two more we are trading but have run out of space to discuss lately.

EDU, this familiar one which priced its secondary has broken out today on pretty good volume.    We chased some and are keeping a close eye on any further strength.  If this wasn't enough, recent Russian DJIM stocks made NCH's VIP MBT and GLDN is right there.  This is why we started a hit/hold list so your list starts to resemble ours and we all recycle when the time is right.   At this point the lineup at DJIM closely followed is a World Series lineup and there is just no reason to alert/ forum recent DJIM plays like these.  Hopefully you've listed them to trade or still have them in your books as holds. 

ONXX MFW USAP CSV SNCR, these familiar DJIM stocks all have enjoyed some nice gains and we added appropriately with some of them.

The bottom line is, if any stock did not go up in the DJIM land, then it's really considered as a laggard and we are better off just cutting them lose.   Today was not the day to play a 9ema level bounce. When the market is this rosy and most things seem to work, the trading strategy should be focused on "making most bang out of a buck" and we gotta hammer those stocks with the highest momentum.     We are looking forward to trading tomorrow.    A nice reversal of 35pts on the Nasdaq today and the close over 2500.  Now, let's just stick it!


DJIM #9 2007

What was a 4 day shortened week felt anything but as trading seemed to have come to a stall by weeks close.  The week definitely got started on a bang but by weeks end the buyers seemed exhausted and/or just not interested.   So what do you do?.   Well, if you can't buy anything with potential it gives you time to evaluate your holds and maybe sell some into the 'Green'.  It is not the time to get nutty and turn away from what has been working by chasing something just to make a trade.  It is always better to draw down you positions into the green then having to hastily sell if this lacklustre tone continues and we really have an exhaustion day when the selling hits hard.   What the week provided was for some orderly profit taking and by looking at performance of some DJIM's closely followed in the past 5 trading days, so it was not such bad thing or idea to scale down or add to a strong one or two like CSV.

KRSL 28% SYNL 13%  ONXX 12.1  CSV 8.7  TRT 7.3  BW 6.5  CGX 5.9  USAP 4.0 CCOI 4.2 OEH 3.4 GLDN 3.1..and HURC at its highs was up 15% since alert buy in.  Taking into consideration the last few days, these returns at the end of 5 days of trading is nothing to sneeze at.   The week was not all pairing down positions,  there was some buying and adding to these percentage gains in the likes of KBW and to a lesser extend HDNG.   The only one that got away was CYNO, it looks the Directors got a hold of the hacked version IBD too and decided to sell in bunches this week.   Actually this looks like planned selling again and it has never stopped CYNO before from moving upwards, so we expect this to be a hiccup as well.  You could plug your nose and hold your breath till it goes away or you could just sell when a stock is feeling pressure such as this.  We prefer to sell and not feel the pressure possibly take down a stock of ours.  The stocks above are the primary hit/ hold list for DJIM, we might have reduced exposure in some like BW after a big run but these are also the first we'd be looking to throw money back at in the upcoming trading week.

What probably got us through the week was the continuation of the solar plays. Right now, JASO FSLR TSL are providing more than ample opportunity to swing a trade. The good thing is seemingly there is always one moving, so at this point we are hitching a ride here and there and not asking for names.  VTRU VARI , we are waiting on patiently to make a drive for new highs and jump in with some enthusiasm.  The problem is the techs just don't want to lead this NASD to higher ground. 

So...despite the selling in most sectors for 3 out of the 4 days, the NASD and Russell finshed the week up about 1 %.  The Bull/ Bear fight in full force, except the fighting ain't that strong in either direction.  Hope this week is a little more interesting and some conviction comes back.  In the meantime, DJIM will be stay in its own ring and will be after new earning stocks to punch out some profits with. 


DJIM #11 2007

You can't tell traders, investors,  'March Madness' is about to tip's been center court since February 27th and there is no Cinderella story emerging.   Actually, she went to a 'Rally ball'  last week with a tall checklist but all she had was change it seems.  She wasn't the only one.  Simply,  you can summarize last week as a week of high expectations for bargain hunting without a lot of buying.  By Friday volume had dried up, there is simply too much apprehension in the players even after 3-4 days of a reversal. Three days of a rally mustering up barely 1% of a gain in the indexes is little to get excited up.   As we've been saying this bleeding might need time to stop, right now the traders are looking under the band aid for reassurance the cut has healed.  Simply they are re-bandaging all over again just to be sure it doesn't bleed again with an unexpected news blurb.  Somehow the trust has to come back,  maybe we will just consolidate till earning season blooms again.   Hey, it's only a few weeks away till April kicks in, yet we are still finishing of the first Quarter of  '07 with micro/small caps reporting that are giving some play (JSDA #99 IBD).   If there is anything to look forward to, it is a fresh Q of potential plays to feed on.  Considering this is what DJIM is centered around...we've got more hope and can live through this corrective activity more than others playing a different niche.  Oh yeah and one thing is if you don't follow our, "No holding into earnings" stance..maybe you should at least follow it now until this correction subsides. The guillotine is sharper than usual in this sort of market as seen by the PSPT,GMKT beheadings last week....... Be cool, be selective is the daily memo here.  The momo trader needs something, even if they are in rehab at the moment.  One play that seems to be gaining traction again is the Solar play, actually this slowly should become a longer term play as this area is not going to go away.  Sooner than later owning one of these and putting it away under a pillow might be the best strategy.   We are playing both again and have written about them in detail as to their differences.  TSL closed much better than FSLR on Friday but FSLR still had some higher price buying AH's.  Right now, it's a game of jumping tracks as one or the other is providing opp's for a nice gain and we are doing the same a lot of the time.

SNCR, finished well Friday and is one of the few we had selected earlier last week. A timely move just after mentioned in the forum of setting up nicely showed promise at the close.

Early in the week on the Journal we pointed out HDNG KBW UEIC HURC as ones we are looking at first at that moment for a trade. This still holds into next week as one or two moved nicely ( KBW 34-38 ) and most are holding up well or setting up for a move up in a good market follow through day.  With oil stabilizing over $60 recently, BTJ is definitely one that looked best late last week and should be closely followed or traded.  SYNL had a nice week and CYNO is the IBD in America profile this weekend.   As far as JSDA, we'll see..we're not very patriotic it  Comparisons to HANS is like comparing Footballs across the border...the NFL to the CFL..not even on the actual product or earning, but the ability for JSDA to ever trade anything close to how HANS did.  These are the stocks we will continue to closely follow and possibly trade on Monday.  Of course... a wake up call from overseas mkts will play a role on which side of the bed we wake up on tomorrow.

OEH, our lodging lux play before the meltdown made NCH Friday as merger, speculation activity is foaming again in the sec.


DJIM #14 2007

Looking at the past week, we sure had a lot of turbulence news wise yet whole lot of nothing from this market.    Being a trader in this market environment, we have to accept what's happening out there and constantly adjust our game plan in order to cope with what's working.   Basically, it was a grind out there and whole lot of time was spent on watching things that may not develop.   Well, this is one part of the trading world that we have to accept and we just have to deal with it to the best of our ability.    Because our trading methodology is very short term and most of our plays don't last longer than a couple of days or weeks, we always tend to assess the situation bear in mind our trading time frame.    One good thing is that last week is in the book and we are setting our eyes on a fresh week.   We are also getting closer to te earning season.    While a few little biotechs dominated the stories last week, we still had a few DJIM type of stocks making some nice moves.

MFW, this is probably the result of a long base forming action.  This one held up reasonably well during the correction and it caught our eye earlier this week on a breakout setup.   It did not disappoint and closed the week near another 52 week high.   We are definitely keeping this one on top of our trading list for the next little while.

CYNO, despite the minor pullback on Friday, we think this one is still very much in play.   The 9 ema is catching up which should provide support for this one to gain some footing for possibly another assault higher. We will look to play again. For those new to DJIM, this stock was an alert before being added to IBD back on Feb 15- CYNO, "Accumulating some of this one. Reported recently. Like chart, IBD #'s and float. Low 23's"..Posted on Thursday, February 15, 2007 at 01:49PM

JSDA, so Cramer jumped on this bandwagon and we are definitely putting this one on top of the trading play list at least the next couple of days.   Despite how much you like or dislike this TV guru, we think he can bring enough exposure to this stock for us to get a couple of "easy" tradable opportunities. Also, it was one of the biggest decliners in IBD last week, so look for some support.

TGX MTOX,  A couple of the best performers Friday are past DJIM EPS stocks . Some of you have definitely kept a closer eye on these two than us.    Given all the biotechs news we had last week, it's understandable that these small medial equip. co. can also be put in play.   We've always been partial to this sector and many of our past winners have come from this sector.    Yes, these ones are back onto the top of our trading list. This recent IBD addition has a column on it in weekends edition. As you know we are not shy about buying moves already made.

TGX was a earning play just below $4 in Alerts on Jan 30. here is a refresher on it...Briefingcom- After being a momentum stock in the late 90's, Theragenics fell sharply a few years ago and went through a restructuring and fell off the radar. However, the stock is showing signs of life again and could be making a comeback. Yesterday, the stock traded to a multi-year high following a strong Q4 report. Sometimes a big qtr can put a little company on the map for a sustained move. The co is a medical device maker and it's the brachytherapy segment that is the driver here: its TheraSeed device is used to treat prostate cancer without the drawbacks of surgery. Brachytherapy with the TheraSeed device involves a simple 45-minute, one-time procedure. Typically, a patient receives local anesthesia and does not feel anything below the waist. The physician then inserts thin, hollow needles into the prostate gland and deposits about 75-150 tiny seeds. Most patients leave the hospital within hours and resume routine activities in 2-3 days. During the next few months, the radioactive ingredient, palladium-103 (Pd-103), fights cancer from inside the body. The co says its treatment produces results better or equal to surgery... TGX's Q4 results were impressive with revenue rising 30% yr/yr to $14.8 mln and EPS of $0.05, ex-items, vs a loss a year ago. The co has now delivered four consecutive profitable quarters for the first time since 2002. The co also says it benefits from an important federal health law signed last month which protects reimbursement rates for seeds... Bottom line, TGX moved up on this report, but it still has a market cap of just $143 mln. A strong qtr can put a little known stock on the map, so it's a name to watch as it attempts a comeback. Mkt cap

WBD, we added a small piece on Friday after noting it on Thursday following earning. WBD was an original buy on DJIM back in mid '60. What a nice hold it would have been to today. We are looking to add if this trend continues, we would be sellers not much lower than our pick up in the 79's.

Solars, crude oil definitely stole the spotlight last week.   One would think solar plays would catch some fire as well.  Well, we think it's just a matter of time.   Now we just wait.    The point is, we just can not afford NOT to keep a close eye on these solars.

Let`s get earning season into gear.......

Plenty of nice money making  EPS plays started here last Q including USAP CCF VTRU VARI MTRX SYNL EML HDNG CYNO TRT..again HURC  micro caps TRCR TGX NWK AVZA CSV

Note: We will not be processing renewals or re-activating turned off accounts for those who (signed up Jan 3 or before) during trading hours.


DJIM #15 2007

A premise here has been our belief that the markets will be solid going into another earning season, a market has little chance of crashing through the floor before the companies get a chance to tell their side of the story. The correction has been literally wiped away and the recent retracement to the 100ma averages has seen a healthy bounce as we enter Q2.  Last week was one for the books as a number of plays here enjoyed breakaway gains..WBD, JSDA, GROW, MFW.  Isn't interesting that these are all earning plays at one time or another on DJIM. We also had nice moves from AMAG,OYOG.  Plus the solars TSL,ASTI, FSLR..we talked about last weekend as a possibility for the week made for some nice trades.  Sometimes the strong get stronger and it is more apparent in a bullish trend such as we enjoyed last week.  Simply, this was a case of recycling which is a big part of our trading methodology. Speaking of recycling, a few names popped back into our books here on Thursday and they include DJIM stocks from January in MTRX and USAP, both previous earning gem winners.

We'll concentrate on Thursday additions...

MTRX, announce an excellent Q with an upside to guidance. Last Q this was pick up at 16+ and was as steady as they come. Not a big flyer it survived every pit the market would throw at it, including a sliding Oil price and it still held ground. We expected MTRX to trade as the previous earning day, but it performed much better than expected as the institutions did not churn it as before. The guidance was the key this time around as it put on gains throughout the day finishing strong. by $0.07, issues upside guidance (21.41 ) : Reports Q3 (Feb) earnings of $0.24 per share, $0.07 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.17; revenues rose 41.1% year/year to $168.7 mln vs the $136.5 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for FY07, sees FY07 revs of $630-640 mln, up from previous guidance of $560-580 mln, vs. $588.92 mln consensus.  CEO says, "Our third quarter performance significantly exceeded our expectations as we were able to add to our strong talent pools in the construction services groups allowing us to capture and execute more projects, particularly in the Downstream Petroleum Industry."

USAP, a darling from last Q with first buy in at 36+. This maker of speciality steel products including Aerospace and power industries is in the right space at the right time.  We think it is just a matter of hours before we see USAP take on the February highs of 51.80 and go forward and so we added it back. FWIW...Cramer was bullish on his lighting bolt seg March 7th as well.

SPEC, this one gapped off earning March 30th, ( Q1 EPS of $0.16 vs $0.02 in yr ago period; revs $32.9 mln vs $25.6 mln in yr ago period ). Sequentially, this was in line with Q4EPS and with 99 94 IBD numbers it is seeking $15 from the IBD crowd.

Speaking of IBD... How about SYNL and EML, #13 and #85 this weekend for these two DJIM finds from 2006 and last Q. Guess they added their volume together to stick them finally on IBD100.  A note about EML, Friday there was a note on Dept of Defense new armoured vehicle program. Big contracts will come in 07 as this program expands and AH(Armor Holding) gets EML do quite a bit of the work. 

TNH, Terra Nitrogen (nitrogen fertilizer products). 93c Q announced in February. It has been a great trade for sometime due to its volatility. It is one to be traded with care. We added on the dip Thursday and it recovered and flirted with new day highs by close. Made a NCH on a very good volume day(top 5 this year). Guess this is a Ag play as it grows what we eat,  but it is tied to the price of natural gas, it is more than 60% of its expenses. So know what's going on in that end.

As great as the recycling program can be, it does not stop us from looking forward and having cash available to go strong after a new batch of earning plays. We have a growing play list after last week, but we think the bigger money can be made in new picks coming up and so enter this Q with plenty of cash on hand.  Also, if we were holding any laggards at this point, we would simply dump here and avoid waiting for a sunny day with anything stalled and just free up more cash to use on new plays.

If you need reminding, here is a list of some of the stocks we traded here last Q off earning... USAP CCF VTRU VARI MTRX SYNL EML HDNG CYNO TRT HURC TRCR TGX NWK AVZA CSV.   Get it?  Opportunities will be there!

It starts with RIMM and VIP this week as far as past DJIM earning plays.  If you missed it, we've talked about VIP being a play before earning on the heels of MBT report  here on the Journal. So watch it closely this week for a pre-earning reaction. A few notable Russian funds were up over 3% last week, maybe it wasn't all WBD holdings;), but a sign of things to come for DJIM Russian names.

Also, the earning dates link waits for your participation on earning dates for DJIM plays when found.



Spotlight on Solars, Part II

Climatic, climatic and climatic!   This is how we described action with TSL, JSDA and JASO toward the end yesterday.    Looking back, we felt that it was definitely a right thing to sell/ blow out our positions into the strength and leaving home with little to no position yesterday.    Was today's early downgrade merely a coincidence or was today's decline inevitable?   Whatever the conclusion anyone can come up with, we think odds did favour a pullback based on yesterday's action.    Momentum stocks tend to move up in a violent fashion and they can come down just as violently.    As traders who trade a lot of this kind of stocks, we have to respect the beasts' potential and act accordingly.  

For us, in case those are not familiar with our style.    We sell momentum stocks aggressively when they reach a climatic phase in our view..   We also sell most if not all of our position if stocks breach 9 ema or in an attempt of doing so.   This is not be mistaken with stocks that climb 20% for us and then start fading.   We do not wait for these to come to 9ema, we leave with most of gains in tact.   Use CIMT as an example here.   A $3.70-80 buy in, climbing to 4.60-70's...we do not wait for it to come down and hit 9ema like yesterday.  Look at it this way, if a stock you bought at $ goes to $46-47.   Will you let it slide back to $ 41's?.   We hope not , so look at a cheapie stock the same way.   These are some automatic reflexes we preach as part of our trading discipline.   Trading is solely about preserving most of the gains out of a play while cutting the losses as early as possible.    We use a rather conservative approach when dealing with these super momo stocks.   Here is a rundown...

TSL JASO SOLF FSLR, so now the stocks have pulled back and what do we do now?    We'd be eyeing 9 ema for the support and to see if the pullback can stop there for a potential quick rebound.   Otherwise, we'd be eyeing yesterday's high as the potential b/o point for re-entry.    The one thing we don't want to do now is to enter a trade here, where they closed today.   This is what we feel is no man's land and it just offers nothing but uncertainty.

JSDA, this is the exact same situation as solars and to a more extreme degree.   We really wanted to see where this stock would settle once the volume settles down.   Again, going in and picking an artificial bottom may as well mean that you are treating this game like a craps table.  

RCCC, this one held up really well but we think better entry pts are still ahead of us.  Others behaving SYNL, MFW.  Eyeing GROW, TRT some.

All this can change as lots of market moving co's. are reporting tonight , so we'd see how the market is going to react to their earnings tomorrow.   Unless the momentum is clear within a particular sector, we'd do what we normally do and pick one earning play at a time and highlight only those that are worthy of DJIM.


DJIM #17 2007

Last week was quite the interesting week.  We go off to a fast start as our closely followed from the previous week struck new big highs come Monday..TSL $68.9, JSDA $32.6, UXG $7.17, JASO $28.30.  What followed was our noted exit before the downdraft began for these plays, which included a few D-grades of note we alerted to Tuesday premkt.  In regards to D-grades, we've said many times we prefer to move on when we see these hit the wires.  Yes..even if your stock wasn't D-graded but is in the same sector, you can expect a sell-off as well.  Especially after a big momo run.  Coincidently, what followed was a few days of boring action in the small caps as the larger caps moved forward.  This action, this divergence started getting many out there saying the market was hanging by a 'thread' or was 'troubling', as the broader market was not playing along.  To us, this isn't some conspiracy that the market is going to was just boring as we all probably had a rush going into the week off the momentum runners that ran into Mondays action.  Luckily, we had AVNR for a few days to keep us sane ..or is it insane if we're playing these?.  By end of day Friday, we had the large caps confirming the trend, we had the Nasdaq showing support and moving higher on bullish earnings all over the place.  Do we think the bearish mood on small caps seen mid-week will continue?....NO!....if the earning keep surprising!   It's just a matter of time before small-micro caps play along in the bullish trend.   See yesterday note with charts.  Also, S&P Equity research reasserted late last week that mid cap asset class is where investors should stay focused in '07 , going against the grain of Wall street by saying this class will out perform the large caps.   This week as seen in our earnings dates calendar, small caps earnings will start to flood the market and we will most likely concentrate on new names going forward or looking to recycle names off reports. A few small cap stocks came out with excellent earnings last week. These include...

SYNL, its Q1 profit increased to 56c, a fivefold increase yoy and sales climbed to 44.4mln. The report was also sequentially better which shows growth not only year over year, but Q after Q which we like to see.  We didn't feel SYNL was the type of stock to chase pre market, especially as it hit $37.  We simply thought we might get some selling early from those anticipating excellent earnings and holding through, we thought we could get it cheaper.  The stock never saw those premkt highs Friday.  The stock bounced off the recent high, filling the gap and we bought back a position.  Still under a million shares traded, but we definitely like the volume bar it put up Friday and think this could start to trade a little differently than it did in the past 6 months.

ATR, manufacturer of dispensing systems for personal care, cosmetics, food and beverage put out a nice report as well last week that we covered Thursday. A nice spike at the open to $77 before closing up at $75.12. 86 EPS/89 RS #'s.

DXPE, a combo of a favourable chart and the good ole pre-earnings walk up played a role in its 9% action Friday. We are trading this and will let loose our positions before earnings on the 24th.

Steels/speciality Alloy manufactures, we are still holding SCHN.  Other stocks in these groups of interest to trade are RS and TONS.  TONS is for the bungee jumping aficionados.  USAP and its steel-alloy group have a nice chart after a recent pullback.  If the group has a breakout, we'd look for USAP again.

Solars, volume has declined daily on almost of the players. The short squeeze, momo run is over for now.  We have no reason to test the calm waters.  We'll be there when the waters get infested again.       We are also away from the cheap mining plays here as we head into earnings for the smaller names.

Shipping stocks like DRYS have been doing well lately, ISH remains a play too look at.  Very small float here. RCCC, FCSX, ROS, MFW, GLDN, USAT, TNH , some names up there on the watch-trading list going into the week,  but we'd expect new earning names to take the thunder away from the more mature plays in the coming week or maybe a biotech feverish stock or two to be the big plays.


Dow 13K?

Who really cares?   However, the CNBC show has to go on and "intelligent" topic has to be discussed in order to attract viewership.   In all honesty, those who trade stocks for a living don't really have much of a choice but having this CNBC on in case we miss some important headline.   Ok, enough rant here!      Market has once gain showed its inability to march forward and much of the action came from the smallcap land.  With a 91bln bank deal overseas leading the usual Monday activity, we expected more follow through today.  This is a little bit early to talk about but we are about a few weeks away when the seasonality factor kicks in.    Sell in May and go Away!    Ok, so for those members who have billions of dollars at stake, don't blame us that we didn't warn you.  lol   For the rest of us, life goes on and we will adjust to whatever the market environment when changes happen.  There are a few interesting setups today and we are going to go through each one of them....

KRSL,  this one gave us a very profitable trade a couple of months ago and we never take it off our watchlist.  It merely sits in the back of the class until it decides to stand up one day ann makes itself  noticed.    We noticed it earlier today off the news that the co. received a contract(MOU) from UTX.   This is essentially the first good news we've heard from the co. since it reported its last earning.    We'll take it.  It's good to know they will continue to be busy going forward.  The reasons for a move has been summed up in the alert, so we are not going to repeat here.   One thing we have to point out that this one trades very thinly and it can go up as quickly as it can go down.    We got in the $23s and will act accordingly.    Chasing blindly without a plan is definitely not a good idea with a stock like this one.

TRCR, this one reported earning after the close and essentially this is the best quarter for this co.   It beat year over year, also up nicely sequentially.   This one has had pretty steady action since the last report so there's a good chance that it will continue the same pattern.   Although there's no exact telling how the stock will behave tomorrow but based on the AH action, making a new high is not out of the cards for this one soon.  We might actually keep an ear on the CC late morning, or will just watch the action at that time to possibly make another move. 

SILC,  we are going to monitor this one really closely tomorrow because there's potentially a chance for this one to break out.    We believe this is also due to the pre-earning run and eps date is 25th of this month.  Hey, we got one from DXPE Friday and today from USAP, so why not the SILC'ster!

There have been quite a few names that made some nice moves today..SYNL MTOX CYNO USAP. A few of them are the quiet types which include TNH GLDN SCHN GMRK ROS.  We are glad that there's enough action out there despite the weakness from the major indices.

...lets's see what the chips can bring tomorrow off a couple of good reports AH


Big Point Gainers...

Yes, the good earning plays are being rewarded with big points lately.   It seems you only have to beat just enough and raise the guidance(not necessarily required) just enough to be rewarded a big push on your earning day.    We love it, and this kind of phenomenon brings back memories of the golden days.    Alright,  so the strategy out there is to catch some of these big gainers once it's confirmed that people "like" their report.     How can you tell?    We figured if by 10 a.m.the stock is still holding up well, we'd be start looking for entry point there.   This may very well mean that we have missed the "best" entry price of the day, but it does ensure us that any entry price we enter would give us that much more probability that we can come out on top.   Why?   The big point gainer theory!    Of course, you still have to trade those stocks with that kind of potential.    If one of the earning plays did not give you a huge run-up, perhaps trying a few of them would work out better.    Keep in mind, we are playing the earnings play here, and these aren't the phase 3 stocks or other type of stories where the stories may only last as long as the time to chew down a snicker bar.     With a earning play, even if you get in at high on earing day, there's still a very high probability that stock continues higher throughout the following days if not weeks..if the market holds up, of course.

Bottom line, trading earnings play (after the earning announcement) is a rather conservative yet highly effective method to trade.   It can also be highly profitable if you trade mostly small caps like we do.    Four times a year, with each earning season lasting a month or two, this would be enough to make it a full time job.  With so many opportunities so far the past week, it just proves in our minds there is no reason to hold through and into the earnings call.  We have great expectations of the DXPE, SYNL, BW, BTJ's to announce great reports after trading them for months , if not already years....But this does not mean we want or will sleep with them the night before they give out their numbers/ guidance.  We practise, 'safe trade' around here, you might say on earning day.

Some plays today...

ALGN VDSI,  we group these two because they both shot up off their respective earning reports.    Volume was great for both and both pretty much spent most of their days flat lining until later on.    We alerted these earlier today and we liked the way they closed.   It wouldn't surprise us that they get some good follow through tomorrow and possibly into next week for some nice gains.

SVVS SSYS WST, these ones are much like the ones above and acted well off their earning reports.    We had to buy these because you never know which one of these will become a great runner.    What we do is keep a close eye on the strength of each one and add/reduce according to their action.    Basically, even for a small size, we just can't afford not to play them.  At todays pace , plus with the usual suspects rocking SYNL DXPE BTJ, we don't have time to do much if any DD on these new names.  We are trading the #'s and action.  We consider them secondary plays at this time and will choose the best in the days ahead to go forward with.

BTJ DXPE, wow these two had great follow through today and especially BTJ.    This is essentially pure momentum at work and we won't argue nor mess with them.

SYNL TRCR,  both notched a new closing high and in the case of SYNL, momentum seems to be really high and we are curious to see how high it goes before it stalls.  The last 4 are definitely the primary earning plays here.

PAE, wow we didn't even think this could be such a huge gainer(% wise) after we alerted it days back.   Of course, Briefing helped our cause but nonetheless the company PR machine is at work. Today, a deal with Sony Entertainment got the name out further. This is just getting too impressive and we'll keep trading it even after selling a chunk off this week.

IDSA,  it might be too cute to think that this one can get onto the IBD100 list with just 2 days left.   Well, technically, it's still possible given the float of the stock and volatile nature of this beast.    What we like about this one is the fact that the sector it belongs in is very hot and coupled with the general rosiness of this market, it's just not unnatural to run this one higher.   It does have good enough IBD number to get into the top 50 at least and we feel it's just a matter of time before it gets added to IBD100 list, provided that it can consolidate around this level.


DJIM #18 2007

NUMBERS, NUMBERS...there's the ECO. which include numbers of the crumbling USD, the poor GDP# number released Friday, the poor housing #'s and then there are the EPS numbers which are fueling the market with money that does not want to be left out of a bullish party.  Which numbers are we concerned about?.   The answer is easy as hot money keeps flooding the market, everyone is chasing the EPS numbers of the giants and now the more speculative, smaller caps instead of worrying about all the eco numbers and what they could be pointing to.  If we had millions, billions maybe we'd be concerned about what the eco numbers are pointing to and that includes slower growth/EPS numbers in Q2 and beyond, instead our goal as always is to capitalize on what we are given today, tomorrow and taking advantage of it fully. Go hard or go home is the premise here recently. You will not need to go hard or stress later in the year, instead you might go on a extended vacation if you are capitalizing on this bull run we are experiencing.  Simply, companies which are producing results, giving a good outlook are being rewarded big time. We can't ask for anything more as this is DJIM's niche!...So enough of the banter, lets get the nitty and gritty and that is the stocks we have our eyes and hands on..

IDSA, we discussed the possibilities of this beast Wednesday night and Thursday we all had a chance to accumulate in the $12's. We are patient and wanted IDSA to maintain some integrity by not finishing the day over $15 and then be prone to a sell off Monday if it was included in IBD so soon.  When we started buying Thursday, all we had hoped for was a decent finish in the $14's come Friday.  IDSA did turn out to be fun, even if an hour or two before we thought on Friday and made a couple of tries at and over $15.  We anticipated a roadblock of sorts at 15, it wasn't major but you have to understand many were happy to get out here knowing many are anticipating this level.  We did some selling in this area as well, 20%+ in a few days was sufficient for now.  Don't forget many got in even lower Wednesday on the results and were willing to sell around $15 for even larger gains.  We are glad to buy any dips and now look forward to IDSA having 5 full days of trading to rock $15 and beyond. The best it could have done Friday was finish in the $15's, but with a week to do some damage we think it has a better chance to go into the high teens in a somewhat orderly manner.

TO, easy symbol, brutal name Tech/ Ops Sevcon..hey but with a 2.2mln float and nice earning you could call yourself whatever you want!. This one has a string of EPS somewhat similar to TRCR with the last being in the mid-to high teens.  It also just put in it's first 10 mln revenue Q like TRCR. There is also 15% institution ownership with a few names we are familiar amongst the holders. This gives this unknown company some respectability. We feel with fast money back in the market chasing an IDSA or two, a play like TO should get some interest in the week ahead. You don't if you don't try!

CMI, guess we'll look at this again but after giving a ride from low $90's to $107 off the opening bell, you'd have to think you are not going to match that any time soon.  So why bother going back right away!. The co' beat expectations and gave a rosy outlook.  That was the spark to ignite what we thought would be a nice short covering in the morning.  As we noted in the forum that morning...more goes into finding a play than the headline numbers in many cases.  It would be too easy if all companies with excellent numbers did the same thing.  CMI had a big run recently due to M&A rumors, these rumors evaporate most of the time and this idea brings in shorts expecting the stock to come back to reality.   Nothing like a kick ass report to get them covering in a hurry.  This was the idea behind the trade for a early morning move.  Anyways this was exciting and you could put this one with the MFW's huge day recently when we gave out a play with something like 20-40k volume before it exploded to record volume and big quick gains.  If you're not pocketing these types of gifts and moving on or recognizing them as an opportunity to jump in as soon as huge momo comes in.... something is wrong.  Also, if you're still scared to buy expensive stocks get over it.  These expensive stocks present incredible opportunities.

VSEA, a semi beat by 3c and guided higher. Not big fans of Semis here for the longest time, but with market the way it is we need to diversify some and see what the bigger names are capable of.  Besides, this one was a nice chart heading into earnings and this weekend moved to #4 on IBD. A few firms already reit it a buy and boosted price tgts.. We bot late, low 69's.

MFW, a familiar name we bot back Friday. It kinda pissed as off as we only had a few shares and were ready to add for days $60-62 and now had to deal with a sipke at the open to as high as $68. least we know the Perelman money was smarter than us by picking up $12mln at $60. We like this kind of news and bot mid day off the pullback.

TRCR , quite the nice run in 4 days. We said we'd be looking to sell some if it reached the 14 area. Friday it was 3 plus points over our alert on it and we booked some profits into the weekend.  Nothing wrong here, just the right thing to do. We'll be back.

SYNL ,what can we say about the last 6 trading days, except its a pretty thing. We're all probably enjoying this move.

DXPE, was a casualty Friday but you don't need to be one.  Past knowledge of DXPE volatility puts this move into perspective. It's nothing but profit taking off a 8 point move. One way you might avoid more damage than you need to is set a mental stop in the area of the previous days long stick around that days low and or open. This is not a hard rule but if you had this point in your head it might have saved you a few points Friday. For us as full time traders it is of course easier to exit, if you can't deal with these types moves it is best you stay away...or you just accept them if you like the story and stick with it through the bumps in the road.

A few names for the pillow are acting well, past and present....VE hit 83, HTC near $24, CPY exploded Friday to 60's. These stocks have never seen RED, as in lower than our initial DJIM buy in's ( VE-$68,HTC-$17, CPY-$43) besides returning 20%-40% profits in months.   You can't beat that for a safe crawler. We try to give a bit of everything to satisfy all tastes.

One discussed in the forum early this week kept going creeping up and that is TWIN. ...... Remember SYNL EML were these pillow stocks when first intro'd here.  We can't discuss these much as they trade so thinly day after day, but for those of you with a longer term view on some of your positions these have been or are great stocks so far for under the pillow. An extra screener for these types is best to keep track and visit.  ABM, has pulled off a NCH and a nice weekly chart as well.



This market definitely feels like there's high level of complacency built in.   We kicked off the week with a hostile bid offer from AA for the good ole Canadian Alcan.   A potential deal like this always spurs activity in the sector and we are seeing the spill over effect into a few stocks.   This and other M&A activity is definitely good news for overall market.   What this means is that since market has been getting constant flow of fresh bullish catalysts, participants are willing to throw money into other secondary plays.   This, in turn, props our index higher and makes every trader feeling positive and optimistic, and willing to commit capital.

SYNL, technically, this one looks really good given the volume + price action today.   For those that may not know, today's action is the result of Louis Navaliier recommendation, so we heard.    The last L.N. play we touched was UIC which was actually quite a while ago.   However, it did give us more than a dozen points added on.   How do we play this then?  Well, we are willing to give this one some room to move so we'd be looking for continuation of strong volume in order for us to continue the ride. This is no different than a Briefingcom profile, a Cramer blurb that picks up on a DJIM stock long ago discovered.  We'll take it all and have an advantage of already cashing in once or twice and knowing the trading habits of the equity in question.

FSLR, perhaps the easiest points, or the safest points, have already given to us by the end of today.    What does it mean then?   We think once the earning fever dies down with this one, it may trade back to the old form again.   We are keeping a close eye on this one and especially on the volume.  Still this report is more optimistic than the last and might make FSLR a better long term bet for new money.

NGA, this one needs a pullback badly, we think.   Why?   The stock looks more tired each day compare to the previous one.    We don't think the run-up is far from over and we are here to buy the dip aggressively.   De ja vu!     We have probably pointed this approach out many times before.  For an EPS momentum stock,  the FIRST pullback should always be aggressively bought.   This to us is not a wait and see play at this point.   We are simply trusting our own experience and instinct to play aggressively on this one.   We like this one a lot.

VOXW, just last night we said not to lose sight of this one. Today's range almost 2 points or 30%.  Volume was higher than the last weeks big day, so some money is discovering the run-up potential in this name.

Some other notable plays we like today include VDSI TNH SCHN and BTJ and these aren't strange stocks to DJIM.   At this point, we are just curious to see how broadly this market can participate so we can find diversified opportunities to trade. Since capital preservation is key here, not meaning doing nothing but rather taking profits when we get a nice ride.   Today, we were glad to have our capital securely away from DNDN, IDSA.