..problem child....

The Shadowlist and it’s components pretty well show the footprints of the market today and what to watch for Thursday.  Market has traded pretty good on bad news, it will interesting to see how it reacts intraday to it’s problem child' CSCO.    A shallow dip to Monday’s SPX open gap (if hit) would be expectation for dip buying.

Shadowlist

• Momentum/earnings/“winners of ‘10 –   we’ve been cautious on all the ‘clouds-virts-data centers’  heading into CSCO’s and names like AKAM, EQIX for basically the same group of stocks.  AMC, CSCO, ..” The risk in CSCO’s outlook exists..”.    It seems many have forgotten this by it’s run into earnings and are now paying the price as guidance is 'weak'.   No matter if CSCO is a company specific issue or not again,  AKAM  is not doing any favours for all their peers.   Noted the ‘crumbs’ this week for the Bears relating to SOX (now 3 days down), well, now it’s a nugget for them possibly.  (Some bounce in opticals)
• Commodities –  “Under hike cloud today”..yesterday… Today, the cloud burst as this materials/commods (particularly coals, steels) were the biggest drag on the market ($CRX).
• Financials – streak halted at 2 days for now.  Okay, that makes 3 essential leadership groups off Shadowlist showing weakness.  Pretty obvious the market can’t have this continue tomorrow/short term.
• Consumer –  it’s been a good pocket to be in as it’s the only pocket of strength today again, led by a big earnings day reaction from RL, >10% intraday.  AMC , WFMI  is a good feel earnings story for sub groups.

Keeping the 'beat'...

Just as the playbook had it written up, the Bulls punt return team was ready to go…”A shallow dip to Monday’s SPX open gap (if hit) would be expectation for dip buying.” . Once again dip buyers see the market through rose coloured glasses and shrug of CSCO as company specific to close flat.  Same premise exists within the broad market discussed, more importantly, there is plenty of earnings stuff to trade away.  If you’re an investor in cash, you are literally short the market.

Shadowlist

• Momentum/earnings/“winners of ‘10 –   2 of the EPS play stocks noted in Journal this Q,  JDSU >3%, JNPR >7% negated CSCO’s abysmal guidance and helped other networking stocks APQT/ BSFT  ~4% each within DJIM’s list.  This was helped by Alcatel-Lucent earnings and a 2007 IPO at DJIM, IPGP (use DJIM search for more on co’), an optical laser play that guided up big time. Timing couldn’t have been better as we’ve talked a trade back here the past 2 sessions.  Also, good to see is even AKAM  did not drag others in ‘sympathy’ as this group has been prone to in the past.
• Commodities –  Mildly better action in Steel, coal linked names, but overhang exists following hike/ Brazil.
• Financials – quiet in space.
• Consumer/Q4 Earnings –  added WFMI on Journal yesterday and it continues to show earning winners are getting ‘v.positive ‘ reactions.    This is something we discussed (below link) post bad reactions in mega names and thus bar being lowered etc. early in the season.   Also, if a stock gaps 5-10%, it is still possible to get in and make points as in WFMI  $58’s-61 today, RL  yesterday,  APKT  and many more have demonstrated.  IPGP   was a little crazy much. Excellent earnings are being rewarded,  it’s as simple as that.

http://www.djimstocks.com/djim-journal-1h-2011/2011/1/21/may-start-to-see-better-eps-reactions.html

DJIM #14 2011

As cited Friday post Global PMI/ US NFP#, the market should have been relieved as numbers came out better than feared.  March PMI’s withstood the shock of all macro global issues and NFP# came in solid, but not a big beat to make the latest hawkish case stand up. (*see below for more on PMI's).  The Bears still had a few shots to disturb the day, but US ISM came in line and most importantly, Fed Dudley curbed a week’s worth of ‘hawkish’ (tightening) exuberance by keeping to the ‘big 3 ‘ doves mandate. (Bernanke Monday night speak to follow).   

DJIM expectation was..” All in, the market big $ longs and markets shorts are on hold. The data may do nothing to change.”.   Basically, the market sighed a relief and it moved past “R” from data, but the big $$  is still not convinced to chase this 6.5 % rally off SPX 1250 and closed back below “R” top/ SPX 1335.   Market wannabe participants, (this includes big money longs and shorts) who look at the market rally in disbelief will be left with little to go on this upcoming week prior to earnings season.  Why?.  Simply, we are into a very quiet US economic/ earnings calendar week as SPX nears it's highs for the year.   It looks like the market might experience 'technical difficulties’, as in a market driven by technical analysis as the SPX nears ‘ double top’ ..Bear lingo.(* R2K/DJIA are above it.)  That’s all great chatter and makes use for all the crayon chart drawings you see in the social media stock world, but once the day is done, shorts/Bears are unlikely to do much (conviction) before earnings get into gear and risk more upside from the market.   It won’t be a surprise to see pre-announcements this week, we’ve seen quite a few already.  It will be interesting to see market’s follow through reaction as they hit (how much already baked in?). 

In all, we could be stuck as both sides have little conviction, likely all newsflow will come from outside US markets (ECB upcoming hike, China possible hike).

*While PMI’s held up for March, it’s very possible that immediate impact is not yet showing and April reading's will deteriorate.  It’s a few weeks away, but if a sizable correction is to occur, it will begin prior to the releases later in the month of April.   Earnings will need to offset possible Macro (Japan,Oil) drags ahead for investors to find value in stocks.

Shadowlist

■Momentum/ earnings/ winners of ’10-   If you think window dressing front running doesn’t exist,  just look at a 5 day FFIV chart.  Isn’t it sweet when a house downgrades (FFIV) immediately after a 8-10pts ramp higher into Q end.  This goes back to what we were saying about possible jumping on these missing link laggards into Q end.

Just 24 hrs after a bottom seemed to be formed in the opticals, a mid cap (EXFO earnings) destroys all linked names like JDSU, FNSR.  It’s quiet silly/ridiculuos and shows why it’s a momo’ trade this year as 50mln to 500mln market caps are bringing havoc on 2-4 bln market caps.  This action wouldn’t happen in many other sectors in the marketplace and will eventually be in play again as network builds are not going away in US and China.

As as broad tech, the SOX ‘dislike’ underperformance noted here mid week extends, month end couldn’t do much for a bid into the consumer end tech hardware/semi linked plays.  This is where most pre- announcements will likely occur.

As far as Shadowlist components, Wednesday included a few select winners on site. A few continued to be stong to close off the week.  NPTN  surged to a peak of ~20% next day, TDSC, added 13%, MSTR,  tacked on 3% to 8-10% Wednesday's gains.  WTW,  another 6%/ 5pts. 

■Commodities –  One sector that did have follow through on Friday as per note to watch was the Ferts/Ag’/,equp./chem.  As the coal trade here likely cools off shortly, we’d look for the ferts/ag’s/chem to trade post USDA numbers boosting corn prices. (Thurs.) 

■Consumer-  the retail sec is not getting much market attention, but DJIM earnings related retail/ lux plays continue to make new highs during a big week/month.  SODA,+6%nch FOSL, TBL, WFMI, UA surged Friday.  RL next for highs?. See table on site attached.  Also, casino (WYNN LVS )  on watch again since last week had nice day as March Macau numbers were excellent, the comps were very hard to beat, but they did so in record fashion.