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DJIMSTOCKS- since 2006 - Toronto, Canada/ London UK  

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Entries in VECO (3)


It's all good...

So long, Dubai!   Since the Dubai news hit, we suspected that the news just would not be able to bring down this market. ..“we see this weakness as an opportunity.“..“Dubai stuff is really a non story here..”(alert Monday).   Today, all the talk is what we’ve been saying, except many who were drawn into the fear hype are only hearing these words in the media today, sidelined with many missed SPX points and individual stocks making new highs.  Getting in tomorrow for a Dubai trade is a little too late.  The past couple of trading days have been great to our latest bolded stocks as they've been making new highs....AIXG (CREE/VECO  alert Nov 24),  RINO , Nov 20th (new adds to DJIM, AIXG , RINO ) to our dip list either because we know what they are capable of on a good day(s)..MELI, CTRP TRIT CLF…and CAAS  20+% in a few days.  

As we have pointed out over the weekend and yesterday,  Dubai is likely an isolated agenda which is “containable” and regional.    The overwhelming appetite for equity market is the most important theme we have in this market right now.  That’s why the premise of the never-ending underlying bid is and has been the overwhelming theme here for months.  Simply, this has meant buyers are there for support and any sell offs should be used to buy your favorite DJIM stocks if they get hit or not.   

As of the closing tonight, SPX stood at 1108, smacking against the recent high.    We have mentioned couple of days ago that investors have this urge to get returns off their cash.    Well, you aren't going to get any return from money market or treasury bills.   Nor you can get any return from sitting on the sidelines and watch every single one of your favourite stock go up without your involvement.     Even though we aren't the big money managers,  we can understand EXACTLY how they feel if they are underperforming.    By sitting in cash, or being cautious, the money mangers are under performing even the least experienced yahoo traders who flip SEED  as a hobby.   This may sound harsh but the message is clear out there, "You have to be IN this market to get SOME return!"

Now we got our message off our back, we'll talk about some of our plays.    On our second thought, there's really not much to talk about other than the fact most of our plays are cruising.    Sure, some of the plays may act a little overheated, but we still have to be thankful for the kind of  excellent action they've given us.    Some of the Chinese (bullet point#2), more positive data here today and plays continue to be very hot and that's a very positive development going into the year end.   We’re also adding CAGC  to our trading list as Ferts are hitting new highs.

Only disappointment today is the GS/JPM  Financial bullet point from yesterday.  The more we think of it... this sector may lag for rest of year and not stop the market as long as the group just holds flat.   Bullet point #3 from yesterday, SEMI’s  (up 3%)led the move today with more companies (ALTR eg.) providing market boosting updates and  2010 forecasts out this morning.  

However, we also want to mention that it's ok to trim off some of the extended positions here.   We have done so today, but we'll remain on the aggressive end on any more pullbacks.  Due to what we see in the market today, we will look tomorrow at getting possibly back into a casino 'trade' with WYNN, LVS , the two names we play here.  We also see shippers  turning here and into year end as alerted today.    The market may consolidate some tomorrow, but we think it's a stock pickers market going forward and so individual groups will still attract attention, even if the broad market tape is not doing much. 

Before you know it,  this market may leave you behind once again so you have to absolutely have some holdings going into the year end.     We still like the idea of a balanced portfolio although we have been tilting our weighting toward the smaller stuff over the past few days.

Bottom line, we have a job report to look forward to this Friday and based on the market sentiment, the number may not even matter that much.   Folks, we are right against the recent high here and maybe we can just get lucky this time. 


...running out of headlines

The story and the trading premise remains as we hit fresh rally highs today!  Part of the premise has been an undeniable underlying bid always present and a part has been no conviction buying or selling.  Therefore, the failure today to accelerate and breakout the November closing high of ~1113 as we still can’t can’t find the conviction buying/volume.  Does it matter?.  Not really to us as we’ve been concentrating on select stocks/ groups that keep on getting a bid…our LED stocks VECO/ CREE  had big days and joined AIXG in making higher highs, CTRP, MELI  keeps rolling on the AMZN theme, CAGC  alert had a sensational day as it tagged the Ferts  group noted yesterday (MOS POT MON) in making new highs.   We've added HEAT  noted in forum yesterday by a member to our trading list (IBD write up today).

Even though the rally seems to keep losing momo’ in this range up to 1120,  we’re not listening!.  Yesterday, we said it will be a selective stock/ sub groups pickers market going into year end and we’ll stick to that!  R2K  big outperformance up >1% of the market maybe a clue of things to come.    Our view as far as groups/ sectors are concerned is China stocks, Casinos and  Shippers  will start to attract interest to close off the year as these are pretty high beta groups/stocks fast money likes.  A few upgrades on these groups or specific stocks and these will get going…that’s all it will take!.  

We had BAC news AMC and this surprise may remove a big overhang and therefore is a positive.  So, before the NFP# on Friday,  we’re hoping this news lights a fire of sorts under the underperforming, lagging Financials..well, maybe for a day as it seems they can’t put up back to back up days for over a month now, specifically GS JPM.


Sideways 4 weeks now..

Today’s drop below 20ma and 1095ES was seemingly inevitable when you look back and consider our highlights of the 3 days of failures to hold intraday highs, which indicated a loss of momentum as the market neared 1120 each time.   Only reason bringing this ‘inevitable’ is next time as traders, if we see such action again we will all have a better idea of what may lie ahead and trade it better.   

As to the seriousness of this break of support at this time,  it may not be so great.  We are still seeing better action in small caps (notably China’s today), Semi's (VECO  nch) acting well and we have a 4 week range low support at ~1085-1082.  Also,  the possibility of bullish December sentiment remains.   We are watching once again the 1085-1082 gap as crucial  support, which most likely needs to be tested.

Stocks had as many as 7-8 ‘small’ headline reasons to move lower.   Most notably, the Greek downgrade which played havoc on the Euro and therefore USD.  Also, more Dubai noise played on the USD.  As we've pointed out this trading hint before and it worked, sometimes in the markets when there is no 'ONE' big fundamental reason,  but many headlines the market comes back up very soon.   So, with that in mind and the 1091 close,  the break of the above supports today may not be all that bad.