Expectation!

We are almost two months into the new year and many of us have been asking the same question.   Is this the kind of market we have been expecting?   The truth is, nobody can really answer this question.    Just like an individual stock, the overall market would spend most of its time in the consolidation mode.    It seems we have been stuck in this mode for the longest time.    Unfortunately, there's really not much we can do about this and we can only do our best to cope with this situation.     Today it started off as if the market wants to go down hard but it ended up in a meaningless way.    Our DJIM stocks have fared better than most in this market environment and this is the exact sort of things we liked to see to end our trading day.      Here are some highlights...

FSLR TSL JASO, even though we are grouping these three together since they are all solar plays, we do have to point out that FSLR is the only one that we have considered as an earning plays.    Solar plays are hot and there's no doubt about that.   We think these three represent the best in the solar trading world where both the liquidity and technical signs are top rated.

CSV, this little funeral service stock broke out today on pretty convincing volume.   We didn't think those insider buying was meaningless so we added then and again some today.    It's hard to speculate how high the institutions will take this one up to but one thing we can all agree about its business is that "it's just a proven business".

BW OEH VTRU HURC TRT CGX,  again we are grouping these together b/c these are familiar names that always seem to outperform the rest of the market.    Steady as she goes!    It's nice to have a 20%+ mover in your portfolio but it's the steadiness of some of our stocks that make our portfolio really shine.  All these have been early earning buys this Q at DJIM and OEH, is a sec play on other hotel earnings plays that came out with nice reports.  Now, it gets some takeover speculation with the CEO departure. We thought this speculation was already underway due to industry conditions and company internals, today Bear Stearns added some fuel to it.

CENX survived earning with a NCH to boot and shows this aluminum play is looking for its 52 wk highs down the road.  A couple of recent faves CCF, HMIN are now over 9ema and back on close watch.

Things are definitely looking pretty rosy at this moment and we have seen no shortage of leaders among the stocks on our watchlist on a daily basis.    Does this mean that we are committing heavily into this market?    At this point, we feel we are committing more capital but only on a selective basis.    Things can get out of hand when you add too many positions and it's easy to lose track of things.     A good strategy is to limit our portfolio to a certain number of positions.     For example, when we get to near the close of the trading day, we always ask ourselves a question, "are we going to be holding the best 10 stocks on my screen overnight?"   If things do check out then we can end the day happy but if one or two stocks seem like a laggard then we just cut them lose or replace them as in a CXW yesterday.    This is of course assuming the market is still in a pretty good stand and there are stocks on our watchlist that are outperforming.     Basically the point is that we are always extremely picky about what we hold in our portfolio and this means ...yep, we'll say it again thanks to MFW finance biz...no holding into earning. 

Boring but still productive!

Market exhibited another lackluster day as two major indices went opposite of each other.    Like many traders, we are also pondering on whether we'd be seeing a big move from this market.    While we ponder our thoughts, we are also busy trading those that are exhibiting superior strength in this market.   Again, there's no shortage of stocks to trade today as it's becoming a trend lately.    In all honesty, as long as there are tradable opportunities for us to get our hands on...Is it even relevant which direction this market is going?    We never believe that anyone can be tied down by the market or a particular stock.    When it's time to move on and cut a position,  one shouldn't think twice to do so.    Liquidity in our opinion is retail trader's greatest assets.    Here are a couple of plays worth noting...

HDNG, yes it's another one of those thin floaters.  lol  Actually we have been trading all kinds of EPS movers this earning season so far.    The stock came to us when it gapped up in a volatile fashion.    The company reported a very decent number and the only concern we had is not knowing how this stock will react based on a heavy institutional presence.    Believe it or not, this one still trades like it only has one million float when in fact there are quite a few  institutions holding over 6 mill shrs combined.   However, there's still no analyst coverage on this one.   What we are looking for is more exposure and coverage.    We had CCF, EML, SYNL and now it's HDNG's turn to show us what it's made of.   One thing is for sure, its earning number doesn't lie.   Oh and it looks like IBD raised its number to 98 94 A after the close, not bad at all.

KBW, this one just didn't take long at all and we added with today's strength after consolidating just over $36.   We knew that a financial company in this market cap range is always sexy and attractive to institutional investors.   Why?   They are always potential takeover target for those big and hungry financial outfit.

USAP HURC GLDN FCN JASO ,  all these made new closing highs and we are being extremely grateful of USAP.   We feel that HURC has a pretty good chance of pulling a USAP move. It seems HURC has more staying power than its previous earning reactions.  Basically, it's acting different with sustained strength.

January was a bit slow for us in terms of earnings report but February seems to be full of good surprises.    This seems always to be the trend for us as we are getting more and more opportunities toward the latter half of the earning season.    The only thing we want to say at this moment is "keep'em coming!".  Friday has a way of throwing out a new play lately, so be ready.

DJIM #16 2007

The week closed on a high note for DJIM stocks as they outperformed the market in the morning. The spillover from the markets move Thursday came into our stocks early and in bunches.  As we said the night before...there's still tomorrow!

JSDA, what can you say about a trip from $23's to a AH price of $28.70?.  Well, we talked about our buying enough last week, how about thinking about some selling strategy heading into Monday's trade and perhaps a gap open.   One way to approach this runaway is if it gaps Monday use a mental stop at around Friday's close so you don't blow your winnings.  Some may give it some more room and use the open price area Friday for an exit.    If it keeps going up, you just go with the flow and keep it a hold.  There will be more trade in this and taking some off sooner than later will not hurt you.

BW, incredible what one buy rating by First Albany can do for a worthy earning DJIM stock.  Volume was nearly a million for this Friday as it opened at $54 and climbed all day to $58.  If you got your play-watch list screener set to the top recent plays at DJIM...then you had a potential 8% move on your hands.  Same goes for TSL and it's 6% move. There is only so many times or so many plays we can alert-comment on a day without confusing the lights out of our readers.   Hopefully..these are on the top of your trading play list as they are on ours.   Both put in NCH's again and we will be selling what pieces we gathered Friday into a hopeful nice open off the NCH's.  After...we will again look to buy a dip in these.

TNH, recently when we added this to DJIM, we spoke of the rewards possible if you get on the right side of a TNH trade.   Even if you plucked it off Friday after our mention Thursday night off its NCH, you had 5 points by noon.  How many stocks do you know that can get you up to 10 points the following day if you bought the day before.  $60-70!.   We'll look for another entry after selling into this fast ride .   A note, there is a relation to TRA , which made a NCH Friday, but to us TNH is the play here!.

UXG, this was definitely a sweet winner here Friday as it climbed and climbed to almost $7.  We are buying the dips here as we are in the GRZ and URZ.  These are providing nice trades off the dips over and over again of around .50c.  Once in awhile, you might get a move like UXG's which is a just a bonus.  These are our speculative bleacher creatures and we will continue to trade them.   The other cheapie around here...

CIMT is holding just fine since our $3.80's intro on it.  It seems quite safe and we are looking for another leg up soon.

If you want to get real cheap and speculative...

PAE,  came out with earning late friday.  It reported .06 vs. (-0.04) +250% EPS change,95 RS, following a break even Q with revenue over20mln+11m in the previous Q.  It closed at $1.65 and has market cap in the 50's mln. Even if you take out a 1 mln legal gift, they still made over a 1.2 mln in net and are now profitable.   Usually a stock turning the corner on profitability gets some attention sooner than later.  It actually got into IBD's top earning announcements column and might get a look Monday or simply crawl slowly upwards from here.   It can be a complete bore or its numbers and float and price will get some cash into.  We'll watch early, you never know...

JASO,  we tried to include this early in the solar play here, but it never materialized as the FSLR, TSL and ASTI were the clear plays.  Well..this has changed the last few days as it has gained some momentum.  It reported 'swell' earnings, March 30th and was trading at $19 when mentioned last in Alerts.  Looks like some newsletter hype job has gone into this, so trade with care if in at this point over $24 and 20% in a couple of days.  Our money is still for the FSLR TSL ASTI plays, but we will look to buy lower prices in this one most likely.  Time will tell....

ASTI,  has done a beauty of a job flying off the 9ema and closed with a NCH Friday. We are there and are looking for higher prices in the short term.

MTRX OYOG keep making NCH's.  BTJ is one we added back Friday as far as these sec plays go.

What else in DJIM land...scattered notes on recent stocks around these parts...

AFAM..might have turned back up Friday.  CYNO, has shrugged off the D-grade in sector and is a few % points off highs.

USAT, SLP.  Waiting on these to move over recent highs for us to move into. 

SPEC, is looking like another potential IBD play that has lost its papers to cross the $15 border.  We'd only be chasing these last 3 on a definite show of buying momentum at this point.

Spotlight on Solars...

Some of us really wished that the trading day would last just a little big longer today.     Some of us really wished that we would repeat the same day tomorrow.   Some of us really wished that we could've started the day over so we could've better prepared for today's action.   In any case, today's undeniably a great day for the all who have been following today's winners here.   It just felt like payday, a culmination to a few highlighted DJIM stocks.     We definitely agree today was spectacular and did what we could to preserve the outcome.    Here are some of the plays today...

TSL, solar stocks stole the show today and we think this one is by far the best deal momentum wise.   Today's rise may not truly justify its presence since the break out started essentially 23 pts ago.    The question now is how high this one will go and we'll just have to monitor this one closely and with some care.

JASO, the only regret we had on this one is that maybe we should've played it aggressively and from the get go last Thursday.   But that's in the past and we just have to look at what's in store for tomorrow.   This one had a pretty big 3 day run-up which we think is not sustainable and a pullback could be imminent.   The only saving grace is that if the whole group gets some crazy momentum again, then the pullback may not come right away.  If a stock doesn't get a pullback, all you could do is go with the momentum, especially if a whole sector is running as was the case early and often today.

FSLR, in terms of percentage, this one lagged behind the others.  Funny to say when a stock finishes 6% up.  Nonetheless, this one pulled a NCH(new closing high) and we are expecting some follow through for tomorrow.

SOLF, lastly, put this one on the list too even though this is nothing more than a sympathy play. Glad to see this one pop for a few of our readers who have kept up on it.

JSDA, we were actually a little worried about this one's action today as it seemed a little climatic, or toppy as some would call it.   We are not saying that this one is done by a long shot, merely suggesting that a pullback is desperately needed.   We think that odds favours a pullback here so we let go most of our shares.    This one is heavily shorted so we think any pullback will be violent but short lived.  Of course, we are using the chart to determine the outcome as it rolls along.

URZ UXG, we took some off the table but added some URZ later on today.  Many are trying to call a top to this Uranium bubble.  We'll keep blowing air into for now.

SILC, we added some today to our buy in late last week. A NCH here

A few more to keep on top your play/watch list tomorrow...

EML, we put this back on watch a weekend ago because of the potential DOD contracts in '07 going to Armor Holdings.  Today, it closed with a NCH and got a little volume.

CYNO, pulled off a NCH, lets see if it holds here before adding.

RCCC FCSX, both of these we added to our watchlist today and are eyeing for a pullback for an entry.   These are earning plays that have had a great reaction.  With the big winners the past few days, a few earning stocks haven't got the attention from us that they deserved.

DJIMstocks.com still blooming in April....big gains in CMI TRCR PAE AVNR

The streak of big gainers initiated by DJIMstocks.com has continued into the final days of April.   Potential 15%, 30% 40%, 60%+ moves were just enjoyed in the last 2 weeks and are listed below.

These plays are up to the minute "leads' to members available on our site or via email delivery.  These are stocks we are closely watching for a trade, a heads up of sorts or ones we have just bought.  We only send out 1-3 Alerts-Comments a day, some days this includes some of our plays for a next day move.  We do not send endless picks, news bits on stocks with the hope you might hit on one and then put up those winners in public.   We say what we buy real time , simply we tell you what is on our trading plate and provide the DJIMstocks.com trade methodology on these plays in the evening.  Simple and concise.

Despite the recent worry of many that the market was showing signs of trouble because the mid-small caps were not participating, we stuck to our guns!. "As far as we are concerned, if you come to the party led by the big caps...you need to bring a 'wingman' or two.  Our wingman is our smaller caps.   Simply, if the large caps continue on with earnings and keep going higher...the small cap wingman will have to come out and help out.. so all can play.  One can't work without the other!".  This week we got the mid-small caps joining the party as expected at DJIMstocks.com!.

First half of April was highlighted by some big gainers JSDA, TSL, UXG and more.   

See these plays alerted to our readers. http://www.djimstocks.com/journal/2007/4/14/djimstockscom-alerts-blooming-in-april.html .   

Well, it's not only about getting the ' move' at DJIM, it is about getting out safely with your profits in tow.  We capitalized on those plays and alerted our leaving those momentum plays near the TOP.  The pullback has occurred and today JSDA sits 30% from our exit.   Here at DJIM, we just go to the next play and recycle the names when we feel we they are ready for another move..UP!

``We've blown out our positions in JSDA 30+, TSL 64+, traded some JASO and blew it out``Apr 16, 2007 at 10:30AM

``Despite the emotional feeling that these momentum runners TSL JSDA JASO can pull another 15% run tomorrow, we feel the odds favours a pullback here.....``Apr 16, 2007 at 03:34PM

So how did we finish up April with our members... here are a few of the winners we shared in!.  But that`s just part of the winners, you`ll find inside

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CMI- Cummins Inc, 

``CMI  off eps..bot $91's at 8:40 and now getting a few a bids.. still only 22k traded...looking for a nice morning open.``Apr 27, 2007 at 09:03AM-

Yes, less than 30 k was traded before we alerted in the low $90`s.  Just after 10am it hit $107+ or 15% off our note looking for a nice morning open. 15.6 MLN shares traded making  CMI one the most active and talked about stocks on the NYSE stock yesterday.

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AVNR- Avanir Pharmaceuticals

``we think this a $2 dollar ticket even in mid 4's. 20% short interest and previous prices in '06 of this stock on this drug make it worth a spec. trade ``.  Apr 18, 2007 at 01:55PM

Every night we update our trades-play list for the next trading day. Wednesday, April 18, 2007 - Note on AVNR trade.

The next day AVNR exploded to nearly $7 and a potential 40%+ early in the morning.

``The play we are referring to today is AVNR.     We looked at the cause early on today and it's obvious that it had potential.    The rest of the time we just spend looking at the action.   100%-200%, who cares.  If a stock is up 100%, it is easier for it to go 25% higher with momo than if you start with a stock at 1% gain and try to get 25% with no momo.  When dealing with a play like this one that gaps up initially in the morning, it's just too dangerous for us to jump in big right away unless we get a good price in pre-market.   If we hadn't, then there's simply too much risk entering a position right at the beginning of the day with a sizeable portion.  Or... Simply start with a small starter to keep track of, nothing that would sting you if it turns against you.   How we approach it is that we usually wait till early afternoon to see if it has a chance to take out the intraday high.   Once it did, it's almost a given to follow through with a trade for a quick flip.  A quick flip, not a quick scalp.  We are talking squeezing 10-20% out of a flip.   If the momentum is strong, we can flip it a few times provided the 5 min. chart stays on an uptrend.    Toward the end, we'd look for signs if the stock can close near the high or not.   Usually when a stock closes near the high on this kind of extreme volume, it follows through even higher the next day.   Is this guaranteed?  No!  The probability is just high in this case.   So since trading is all about getting the right probability, we bought enough toward the end to look for a good follow through tomorrow. ``

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PAE- Peace Arch Ent Grp-   Almost 60% in 8 trading days

In our DJIMstocks.com weekend edition, we recently profiled a litle known micro cap. Our concentration at DJIM is earnings, IBD, momentum plays and this one fit even if it was only opening at $1.70 the next day. It had earnings and last week was profiled by Briefing.com to help out the cause of DJIM members already holding a position in PAE.

Sunday, April 15, 2007 at 02:56PM-  DJIM Journal Week 16

PAE,  came out with earning late Friday.  It reported .06 vs. (-0.04) +250% EPS change,95 RS, following a break even Q with revenue over20mln+11m in the previous Q.  It closed at $1.65 and has market cap in the 50's mln. Even if you take out a 1 mln legal gift, they still made over a 1.2 mln in net and are now profitable.   Usually a stock turning the corner on profitability gets some attention sooner than later.  It actually got into IBD's top earning announcements column and might get a look Monday or simply crawl slowly upwards from here.   It can be a complete bore or its numbers and float and price will get some cash into.  We'll watch early, you never know...

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TRCR- Transcend Services Inc, was first a DJIM alert in January. Last week we were alerting again at $11.40`s as a buy in.

TRCR hit a high of $14.60`s Friday.  Nearly 30% in 4 trading days.

At DJIMstocks.com, we are there in the pre market with a play like CMI and after hours with a recent buy in at TRCR

Apr 23, 2007 at 04:27PM

TRCR- has put in even a better Q than when we played it last Q. .15C. CC is at 11am , so plenty of time to get noticed.
growth in sequential eps(.02/.03/.04/.09 and now .15c Q)
1st revenue Q over 10mln. Excellent yoy # and sequentially they did better.   took a starter
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See preview section 2006 for the layout inside DJIMstocks.com.  (navigation bar to the left).  See our Archives for the plays enjoyed in `06.

To join, use the SUBSCRIBE link. We will have you up and running within hours to enjoy the rest of this fantastic earning season!

Happy Trading!

Calm before the (earning)storm..

Undoubtedly, the next couple of days will be very quiet as we imagine most of the market participants will be away with their family.    This is not to say that opportunities will not be present during next couple of days.   On the contrary, we think there will be plenty of opportunities and the main concern for us will be the liquidity.    The lack of liquidity means that some already volatile stocks will be push to either direction with less volume.   This may create some "false" move but as long as we are aware of what's going on, we can take advantage of it.     What we are going to do is to keep our eyes on those that have been active during the first two days of the week.   Stocks such as TNH FSLR JASO... and even the ones that have been hot past few days BTJ PENX SNHY etc. will also be on our menu.    Just make sure that you are aware this is just holiday trading and take advantage of it but not over extrapolate things too much.

oh yeah, Happy Holiday!

DJIM #29 2007

The easiest thing to do would be to speak of the big market move last week, but we won't do that and instead look forward to the week ahead. Hopefully, we steered you in the right direction in our Journals the past while and you have stayed invested heavily in the market and our plays as they were the beneficiaries as much as anything else last week. Just looking at the list from DIM #28...DRYS TBSI LPHI AZZ FWLT PENX DDUP SCOR FSLR TSL LDK JASO and you see who played with enthusiasm.  If you need still need to grasp the significance of last weeks action, just look at the weekend charts/comments.  Funniest quote so far heard though, is ..."meanwhile while the media is enjoying their victory lap, many investors are less than enthusiastic about the moves in their accounts at the end of the week....they didn't see the same huge gains in their accounts".  Name the the tout and win a free month at DJIMstocks...NAH, that wouldn't work as too many of you are quite familiar with this singer.  Sounds like sour grapes for some reason, if you ask us!.   At this point in the game, we have to look for some potential stalled action, fortunately we have earnings as the base of this DJIMstocks and it should not stop us from going forward as earnings will pick up this week and new picks will start to show their colors.  We already had some nice reports from CCF, GBX, SCHN  indicating a diverse crop of good reports possibly to follow. Use our Earnings Dates link to see some notables reporting.  Again, we ask for members to post within that link any earning dates for DJIM stocks past and present plays you might come across and we will edit them into a list for all to keep track of this Q.  Going forward, we're basically keeping to the same list as last weekend of stocks we are concentrating on, plus a few new ones that appear all over DJIM last week.  Take into consideration some stalling action in the market realistically should come to some of our names as well.  When that happens we wait and see if the stock sets up again for us to enter a buy in. Examples of this are PENX and DDUP late Friday. LPHI was another were patience is rewarded as it put in a 5pt move after we moved in again.  There is not much to add to individual stocks that was not already said last week, nothing has changed really in our thinking towards those plays  A few other breakouts of past DJIM stocks that we have not signalled out but have been mentioned in our forum such as CMED, SPEC should also be included in any watchlist. The most important thing right now is probably to start freeing up some cash if you are heavily invested to use on new plays that will emerge.  It is quite hard now as everything seems to be running and gunning out there, but it is something you might start doing this week.

DJIM #40 2007

All the fist pumping, Q end dressing by the funds managers of all sorts didn't amount too much by the end of the week on the indices. The DJIA was up just over 70 and the NASD put in a 30pt week. The markets coming up to July highs coincides with the start of another earning season. The earnings will tell the tale if we break through.  Unfortunately, last Q didn't provide many stellar plays in the EPS world, we hope this season is better as it typically is.  The Shippers, Solars, Chinese stocks we follow will certainly provide more trading opportunities, but we hope there will be some fresh EPS stocks to trade in.

AZZ, seems every Q this stock starts off earnings season with a good report. This time was no different as it reported, Q2 (Aug) earnings of $0.66 per share, $0.18 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.48; revenues rose 29.8% year/year to $81.6 mln vs the $78.5 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for FY08, sees EPS of $1.95-2.05 vs. $1.82 consensus; sees FY08 revs of $315-325 mln vs. $316.31 mln consensus.  This stock is based on the US economy but its presence in new markets should provide stability if things dry up here. This really doesnt matter to us as AZZ has a tendency to binge to the upside or downside as evident in the charts making it a pure trend trading stock.

FSLR, despite the daily intraday up and downs this was the best looking of the big 3 solars here (LDK, JASO) on Friday.  Volume has been quite heavy on consecutive days and it is very close to a NCH.  It seems the solars are in the news daily now with price targets, contracts and if there is anything on FSLR in the days to come this could drive through its highs nicely.  This is one solar that hasn't pull backed the last two trading days.  BofA raised EPS estimates for FSLR on Friday. Earnings are end of month.

GS, this continues to be a good trade since we picked up coverage of it in the $190's. Volume has slowed down and the daily trading range is getting thinner. With more FED interest rate talk this month a stock in this sector might not be a bad idea going forward.

ANW BIDZ CLDA, are the A B C's of what traded well on Friday.   As far as SSTR, we think more digging is needed in finding the value of this company. A listen to the CC might be in order to get a better picture, it is not as simple as the headline number might suggest. We'll watch from here to see if this does have substance. That's easier then getting all muddy calculating the private placements/Outstanding share dilution.

Shaky Start and a Steady Finish

Although it's still a little too early to write off last week's action, we are definitely off to a pretty good start this week.    Monday always sets the tone for the week, doesn't it?    Ok, superstition aside, we are glad to see that there was no follow through to last Friday's sell off today.  Another big fat red candle would not have been a pretty sight.    Even though some of the names on our watchlist felt a little shaky in the early going, many of them all ended in a very rosy way.    This is somewhat reassuring because we didn't want to see last Friday's ugliness get carried over into this week.   Momentum can get built up on the downside just as easily as on the upside.    Honestly, we still couldn't see the reason why the market was sold off that hard last week.    Many of the issues the market pundits were calling for were known for a while and there is really no quick fix to them.    Still, we have been managing to live with some of those issues(credit crunch, high oil, low dollar) for a while now and most importantly, fed has been willing to pump liquidity into the system and adjust the monetary policy when any unfavourable situation does arrive.   What's the big worry?    If you believe the entire stock market and corporate profit are centred around the housing market and high oil price, then you may have already parked your money in t-bills and shouldn't even care about this market.    For those of us who trade names like AAPL or RIMM GOOG BIDU , things don't get any better than now.

The point is, this market is not just about the 3M or CAT or BAC.   There's a bull market in quite a few other sectors and that's what's keeping the game alive.    You can also argue that there's just so much liquidity out there that there's always institutions looking for some hot (growth) area to invest.   We just have to be on the same page as those money managers.

AAPL delivered a nice report and should benefit quite a few momentum names.

CRNT, this plays has been on our watchlist for quite sometimes now.   Today the company reported earnings which beat the estimate and it also raised guidance for next quarter.   Stock saw a flurry of buying and ended near the high of the day.   We really like this kind of earning reaction and we are playing it fairly aggressively.

LULU JASO ISRG HMIN, these three have traded to their recent highs today and we particularly like their action compare to some of the other names on our list.    For the sake of momentum, we think as long as the market shows some favourable action, you'd want be trading these names aggressively.

Accumulation...

Despite the overnight surge in the Asian market, the North American market didn't seem to quite match the same kind of intensity as overseas.    Still, market closed pretty well.   We have Fed meeting this coming Wednesday and the consensus is that Fed will lower the rate.    Again, this is not just anticipated,  it's also being expected.   The question now is how big of a rate cut will we be facing?    Is this the real question we should care about?    No, what we really care is how this market reacts to a 25 pt cut or a 50 pt cut?    In the unlikely event, how will the market react to a no rate cut?    Basically, there are two probable scenario and one unlikely one.   At this point, there's really no reason to overwork a strategy to anticipate the reaction, we'll just have to deal with whatever happens.

As we have been saying for a while, we don't think this rate cut will impact the overall market sentiment by much.    Hopefully, this market is still being earnings driven, and not fear driven, which means that the familiar names will carry this market higher.    There's a lot of disbelief of why this market is at the current level and that actually serves as a good point.    You definitely don't want to see everyone being optimistic and basically we need just as many bears calling for downturn, recession etc. in order for this market to go higher.

LFT STV.    Lets talk about these two as we have been getting some emails toward the end of the day concerning the well being of these two plays.    At this point, what we really want to stress is that these two are IPO's and now LONG term plays as yesterdays Journal noted.  These were already short term plays if you're only looking for a fast trade.  Being an IPO, there's basically no historical trading pattern to dictate a stocks movement.   It means that they will be volatile at the early going, especially the first week or two after its IPO.    That's the way it is!    We have to accept the fact these stocks are brand new and we have to slowly work our positions for a longer time frame as oppose to treating it like a JRJC or EFUT!     If you have any doubts about these two plays, just think about the following facts.     When was the last time can you recall a Chinese IPO on NYSE that have done badly three or four weeks into trading?    Yup, we can't recall a name that we've covered that didn't give us some good movement.    WX, EJ, EDU, LDK, TSL, YGE (nice action yesterday), MR... all serve as good examples of the stocks we've been trading in the past and now months later.     If you include the good ones on NASD, then there's just tons more.     Since we are talking about a NYSE stock here, this instantly gives credibility to these IPOs.    It means that the company is not only profitable but also meets the stringent listing requirement.   CSR (CSCT.ob) got that finally and is now trading on NYSE.   So back to the question, why are these stocks down today despite some good action from other Chinese stocks?   Well, one possible scenario is that some traders were looking for some carry through action like STV on its third day and did not get it, hence they just bailed out.    That is just part of trading and we can live with it.   Other recent momo China stocks like YTEC, JRJC put in quiet red days as well, a pattern emerged quickly as these names underperformed those China names near or at highs.   Our game plan is establishing a good position at this level.   We aren't buying all of our shares at once and that would simply be arrogant and undisciplined.     Now does it mean that LFT is done gong down after today?   Well, we don't know that and there could be some more downside action but we think the downside is limited.     As far as STV goes, the recent low is still intact and we are looking to average some more into any more weakness as we see.      Basically folks, we are dealing with a couple of strong growth oriented Chinese stocks here and they have just been out on the market for a few days.     Rome wasn't built in a day,  so let's just give these plays some room and time to work.

Hopefully, you are running a balanced book of sorts and participating in more than just these IPO's.  Just look at the number of charts updated from our closely followed that were hitting new highs yesterday....CETV-CROX-DRYS-EDU-FSLR-JASO-SPWR-VMW-WBD and GHM.     There is always the big caps GS AMZN, AAPL to balance the book even more.

A new day with different drama....

One way or the other, it's not so easy to take advantage of this headline driven market.    Extreme emotion leads to extreme volatility and we have just witnessed two of the most volatile trading days.     Now that the Fed thing is over, we can move on and focus on events that'll shape up the rest of the year.   The big picture is that we are still in a much better shape than a month ago.   Regardless how you judge Fed's recent decision, Fed is doing something to help out the credit crunch by addressing the liquidity issues.    That to us, this the encouragement this market needs, but we have to see if it's enough.  Financial stocks are just weighing in on this market, day in and day out too much.    Soon we will get some good insights off reports from LEH and GS.   Hopefully, these two would provide the kind of certainty this market needs to get some stability from the sector.

Solar plays,  basically you just can't go through a trading day without playing these it seems.   Crude broke $90 signalling a possible technical recovery and that should bode well for the solar group again.   LDK has been active the last couple of days and think this one needs to catch up to others in terms of valuation in light of the recent development and therefore might have more leg room.  SOLF is also becoming one of our favourite to trade along with STP JASO and FSLR.  Again, remember we noted the upgrades seen recently as a possible prelude to their action as we've seen in the past.   At least, 2 more are out this morning, including one on FSLR with a $300+ target.

GXDX, this is a biotech co. similar to WX and it's based in U.S noted in the forum Oct 31.   It came out with an eps report tonight and we think it's a very good report that showed a tremendous growth rate.    The issue size was only 5 million shares.    This one also doesn't trade a lot so the volatility can be high when it comes to trading.    Knowing what they just reported, we are putting this one on our active playlist and will add incrementally when opportunity comes.  There hasn't been many good eps report from small caps lately, so this is definitely refreshing.  It will be interesting to see if there is interest in this kind of play from the market.

Turned out the prudent thing to do yesterday was to sell the gap and not just consider it as we noted in yesterdays pre trading note. The swings are wild and you have to your trading hat on or lose all or most of your gains as the market digests the rate cut and the follow up liquidity plan.   It may take a few more days and it's best we wait it out to see a trend emerge.   Again.. .."what we need to see is the indices recover and hold 13500 on the DJIA and 2700 on the NASD to start thinking of accumulating positions of substance".  This would be a start!

DJIM 50, 2007

As the year winds down with this upcoming last full week of trading, we find ourselves at the crossroads here.    We are here because there's definitely two distinct possibility in front of us.    One possibility is that we roll over from the recent gain and try to test the November low and who knows what happens after that.   The other possibility is that we stop going down right about here and churn our way upwards, in an apparent and somewhat violent manner.

Lets talk about what happened in the past week first.    The action from past week is purely centered around Fed decision and we can understand how market participants feel after the decision.  They have a hangover.  In our opinion, unless Fed surprised us in the optimistic way, this market would get sold off regardless because  as we had come off such a good 2 week rally from the November low.     In terms of Fed's decision, in our opinion, they are doing the right thing even though it may not be "instant market friendly" kind of decision.     The bottom line with the Fed is that we have the Fed on our side still.    They aren't being ignorant contrary to many people's thought and they are simply being patient to help out the financial crisis.   This of course isn't being bought by everyone because many wanted that "magical potion" from Fed that can solve all of the problems once and for all.    Believe it or not, many if not most of the problems associated within the financial sector still need to be addressed and resolved by the companies involved themselves.   In other words, market needs to do the most to bail themselves out.    This is only healthy in the long run.

Too many people are too negative toward this market and too many shorts have piled onto the recent upward momentum in our opinion.    Basically, we believe that when you want to trade this market down, you definitely want to do it with good timing.   First of all, you want to go negative really hard at the beginning of the crisis and in a seasonally slow environment.    Right now, there's definitely no saying that we are at the end of the crisis but we are definitely far from the beginning of it.     People are fully aware what the problem is and measures are being put in place to correct the problem.   It does take time.    However, you don't want to go really short when things are being fixed, slowly but surely.  

So against all odds, we think the second possibility is that this market churns upwards has much better probability.    In order for this market to dive and take out the November low, you'd need some really disastrous news or the proof that we'd go into a real recession to do that.    Somehow we just don't think any of those two things is in the cards at this moment.    At least, not during the Christmas shopping season, we might add.

Earnings Earnings and Earnings!    What more confident catalyst you need other than earnings?    We have them coming up and the way this market has been setup, anything better than the lowest expectation can cause a good rally upside.   Of course, that also depends from company to company and sector to sector.     Last week we had LEH reporting and we have to say markets reaction has been very positive, despite the drop of all major indices.     In the coming week, we have GS reporting and this is considered best financial house there is.    Again, the way it sets up is that the shorts wanted to push it below $203, which is the recent low and knock it down for good.     If this stock is at $240, we say the odds of getting sold off is pretty high regardless the earning number.    In our opinion, the trade definitely calls for the upside when the number is released.     The next important report in the coming week is RIMM.    In our opinion, the recent 20% drop from the $122 area took away any bearish surprise.    It feels that shorts have pressed a bit too early going into this report on the heels of a couple of firms analysis of RIMM.    It is "unlikely" that RIMM would report a slowdown in its business and we can almost ensure a massive squeeze if it doesn't play out the way bearish camp wanted.     There are quite few other reports in the coming week which include  NKE FDX MS BSC BBY ACN JOYG GIS... quite a few different and important sectors.   This should provide us a good picture whether our economy is heading into a recession or not.     Again, we believe in our thesis that market rarely goes into a crash into an earning season.     Basically, we'd be much more nervous being short than long at this point.

Now some plays....

Solars, is it us or does it feel that most if not all solar stocks are being setup conspicuously on Friday?   Just look at some the chart setup from some of the popular names and we swear they are all setting up for a good run-up in the coming week.     By the way, they are being setup(in a very positive way) on a day that all indices dropped well over 1%.    This is simply amazing which tells us that people want to own these things at year end.   Basically we still have a bit over a week to window dress these names and it isn't a myth that the best stocks get owned at the end of the year to show them on your book.

STP/FSLR/JASO/LDK,  these are what we considered the favourite solar names to trade last week.    With the exception of LDK EPS Dec.19th, which we are still waiting for the audit report to cast away the cloud, a start today as (independent Audit out according to LDK concluded allegations incorrect), the other three are being setup superbly going into next week.  YGE, IBD #92 is also enjoying a nice trend change.

SOLF/CSIQ, these secondary solar plays are also setting up nicely, especially with SOLF.  The 9 ema has just caught up with SOLF and the next move might be big and will likely get this thing out of the recent trend.   With the entire solar sector heating up, we feel the move is very likely to be up than down.  ESLR had 2 nice days after Thursday premkt upgrade and follow up news.

Asian stocks, as seen in charts this weekend they took the week off after a 2 week recovery, following overnight numbers from HANG/SHANG they will most likely continue to be out of favor to start the week. 

LRN, 300k volume and a higher finish on day 2 of trading. If this thing had any volume Friday, it might be already looking at the high $20's.

MELI, this is the play you only can wish we'd all bought more of before Cramers mention.   On the other hand, this is no longer a strange name to traders and with its tighter float and story, anything is possible.    Basically, this one is better now with Cramers exposure than before which is largely an unknown stock to many.    The trading in this one is rather volatile so we'd continue to be inclined to buy on intraday dip and sell into strength.   It has worked beautifully in the past so there's no reason to change the strategy with this stock.  The trend is firmly to the upside since the break at $45.

RIMM, we've been buying some late in the week looking to hold up to the earning report and then play after its EPS is digested.    Again, in either case, if this company reports a good number or the market rallies, we'd be all over this beta name along with other heavy favourites like BIDU AAPL GOOG etc.

VIP, MBT..also seemingly against all odds these were green on Friday, closing around highs of day.  Another Russian stock, WBD pulled off another impressive Q with what looks like their best EPS number yet. Again as we 've seen too many times lately, nobody was interested in earnngs, this time because of CPI data headline.   Simply, you had pockets of strength to buy...the solars, the biotech, the russian stocks late in the week despite the volatility to the downside in the overall market.

Bottom line, this is the time where you have to be playing the most popular stocks.   We have seen it that the small caps aren't exactly working so you might as well join the crowd.   The more crowded it gets with a good mover, the better.    We can even see it with some of the recent story stocks from the biotech sector like RIGL SVNT BMRN etc.   You trade what others trade, when a stock is showing upside momentum that is.   Only then, you'd have a chance to outperform others.

Santa showed up...

The so called Christmas rally or the Santa Claus rally has been something of a mixed bag in the past.   There were years we just wished the Christmas season would last longer and there was last year which we all would like to forget.   This year, Santa is back to give us traders something to remember as of now.    This of course, is probably due to the fact that we had a very very tough fourth quarter coming into the Christmas holiday.     All of the problems we have had to endure as traders during the last while, from credit crunch, housing bubble and recession worry are being put behind this last few days of the year.    Put it this way, we won't deal with it until the new year.    It is about time that we can end this year in a rather peaceful way.

If it's peace you want, then you are glad to know that major indices have held up well and many big cap stocks have either inched up or stayed unchanged, in a non volatile way.    If you are like us who like to take advantage of this opportunistic time, then the only thing you'd be doing on a boxing day is buying and selling hot stocks online.     People, if you are serious in trading like us, then you would've tied yourself to your chair during the last few trading days.     These past few trading days have produced some of the best action since early October.    And if you were hurt by the downturn in the late November period, then now is the perfect time to get some respect back from this market.

Basically we are about half way over this holiday trading and we'd imagine most traders would be back in force after Jan 1st.    This gives us another 2 1/2 holiday trading days to do our thing.     Right now, we are playing stuff that are currently in play.    It is crucial that we stick to that theme for the next few days.

Solars, 2007 is the year of the solars and we think we'll carry some good momentum into the new year as well.    Today's action seemed to be spreading all over the smaller and less established solar players which include SOLF CSIQ CSUN ESLR CTDC etc., while the bigger names seemed to pause to catch some breath, with the exception of FSLR.      Yup, we are playing just about every single one of those smaller names today and we'd continue to play until the momentum stops.    Keep in mind, many if not most of those less established solar names are still not proven in terms of earning track record.    When some of these names reverse, it is crucial that you don't buy the dip thinking all solars are created equal and have awesome earnings growth.     Buying dips on plays like FSLR STP JASO SPWR... have good probability that they will come back in a hurry.   Buying dips on the smaller ones may get you into a situation that you'd lose another 30% before even seeing an uptick.   Bottom line, you have to know what you are playing distinguish the type of plays among solar names.

MELI, then there's this one!   If you cashed out last time after Cramer's mention, then today's the day to get it back.    We alerted early in the morning that it looked promising but we did not imagine it'd pull a move anywhere close to 20% today.    This one, unfortunately we have to agree with Cramer for once, has the marking of being a monster.     Yes, it can definitely go into triple digit based on what we have seen with other similar type of stocks.

Bottom line, there's no need to go nuts with all of the hot plays out there and just trade the ones you are most comfortable with.   Stay focused and stay clear headed, and we may just finish this year on a high note.