YourPersonalTrader- Toronto Canada/ London UK

DJIMSTOCKS- since 2006 - Toronto, Canada/ London UK

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Entries in VMI (1)


Change in dynamic? or.....

In a typical "shrug off the bad news.. (more slashing in guidances..AOU,MMM, MET), and propell on good that November hedge fund declines slowed vs. October, giving hope that the industry's forced selling may be abating,  a slew of market ‘bears’  making some sanguine comments...Heebner, Fleckenstein, Ritholtz, Birinyi),  we rallied again today.    It seems market is craving for good news while bears do what they can to hide from the action for now.    The biggest "good news" lifted the infrastructure group, (stocks here on list include FLR, VMI,  along with steel and few others, had the biggest gains for the day.   This is all thanks to the new administration's proposed infrastructure program.    By the way, the new program is supposed to be the biggest since the 50s.   In addition, the hope that an Auto bailout deal will be reached added to the enthusiasm.....Into the trading week...... We also have some more Obama noise on a massive public spending program hitting the rounds and the apparent progress this weekend in regards to the Automakers.).     It may be time to let these infrastructure stocks, including steels to consolidate to buy later or short shortly.    There is also the big tech infrastructure play now creeping in as Obama spoke of Web expansion this time helping the CSCO's along.

So,  with market's late ability to shrug off every piece of bad economic news, why would anyone even consider shorting this market?.    How about because we've gone too far, too fast.  This move brings technical analysis to the forefront some more...SPX note later here.

Well,  unless anyone thinks we are NOT back into the beginning of an economic boom soon, there's about every reason to short this market.    The afterhour news lately just hasn't been friendly for the bull, either.   Tonight we have TXN, NSM, ALTR, BRCM, FDX all warning for the coming quarter.    Can we 'shrug' this off tomorrow,  it would seem improbable as we near 930 SPX, but stranger things have happened this year.    This would be impressive if it occurs!.    Basically, the infrastructure program may be all that,  but it isn't going to help those white collar workers who prefer to work inside the office.    Frankly, the rally we've been getting lately is bit of a challenge to categorize.  Positive is we do have real buyers coming off the sidelines, not only short squeezes paving the way and we have seen some unwinding of the safety flight.   But, confidence is still an issue as nobody wants to get shot in the foot by chasing too far.

We know things move fast, and the next thing you know,  we can be testing SPX 930 (50ma, next vital level),  than 950 and SPX 1000 successively.    It can happen in a matter of days, not weeks.    This actually gives us a pretty good range to work with.    Essentially,  we feel that we may be going (stuck) into ranged trading for the next while until something major happens.    From SPX 780 to SPX 1000 is what we are looking at.    Right now,  as we set eyes on mid 900s, we think it may prudent to have the short side itch.    Currently, we are still monitoring the Financial sector, as much as anything else.    The less drama and more stability we get from the sector, the more likelihood that we may have seen the bottom last month.

Plays like HIG,... may give us some quick points here and there,  but, we may start to do some more position trading in the near term,  in addition to trading the index ETFs.   This is all assuming that market doesn't collapse with VIX gunning for 80+ any time soon.

CHK,  with the cold weather upon us, Oil lifting off $40, hedgies taking a potential break, it might be time to look at some energy stocks once again.  We opened a position in CHK instead of the pure Shale plays based on some good news from them in that they could be fully funded for '09/'10 and thus an overweight from JPM.