From Russia with Love...

We started the day with a very optimistic tone and we definitely finished it with the exact same tone.    So basically, the cautionary stance we took a couple of days ago is a little bit lessened.    However, just because the index is finishing solidly green, it doesn't mean that we are going back gun ho and buy back all of the DJIM stocks back off our watch list.      Still,  it's a game where you only get rewarded from the best action going forward, not from the past.    Momentum stocks provided us with some solid gains yesterday such as FMCN DIVX late day runs, today we had some other DJIM stocks such as ATNI IAAC SNCR MR EDU... providing sparks.    On top of everything,  every one of the Russia based telco stocks caught fire today, notably MBT GLDN VIP ROS.    These were the primary trading targets but if you were recycling DJIM names, you too had a good day!

DJ Traders Market hours Alerts in DJIM Alerts

'[Demi]' posts » MBT, russian telecom out with excellent earnings, also possible overflow to others such as VIP-GLDN, which was raised to buy and a 50 tgt from 37 by an overseas bank yesterday.

To cap the day, we definitely had a couple of wild small caps and the one we chose to play is RNIN.   RNIN is getting some buzz b/c of its close similarity to FMCN and the fact it's an IPO, it gets played with some serious momentum.     It's not easy to keep the gains for a 5 buck stock, even though the float is small.   It definitely had its share of volatility today, but the end result is a close near the high of the day with volume surging toward the last half hour of the day.     While this normally signals another good day to come, it's never guaranteed that it can happen and this play is definitely on the more speculative side.    And last, oil service group had a very decent day.  Recent DJIM stocks such as ALY BTJ GDP PVA... all seem to have broken out.    We'd say choose your play wisely and pay very close attention to the overall sentiment in the group.    One little hiccup in the sector and we are simply outta there.     

That -54 Naz day is still lingering around our memory.   It can not be easily forgotten and the way we've been trading last couple of days fully reflect that.     We have been playing with smaller sizes and only playing with those we think that exhibit the best momentum, today it was the idea of a wild fire spreading from MBT earning. It was a hunch in DJIM Alerts premarket and paid off handsomely with NCH's big dig days from the Russian stocks.

cheers,   

December...bring it on!

The faces, the symbols may change but one thing that doesn't change is trading the probabilities that are in our favor. This simply means going with where we see momentum. Yesterday was day 1, today was day two in trading where the probabilities for profits were in our favor.  One theme that emerged yesterday was the Russian telcos, we didn't see it in print or hear anything about it later, so may we were a little delusional at the onset yesterday.  But then the action spoke as MBT's earning really spilled into other names, one being VIP.  If the premise is correct, one Russian bear does well, so should the other. You all know how this works when ones news vibrates to another.  Well, VIP did not disappoint,  beating handily today  Vimpel Comms beats by $0.27 (VIP)  :Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $1.32 per ADS, $0.27 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $1.05; revenues rose 21.2% year/year to $1.36 bln vs the $1.29 bln consensus. If you believed and later saw the probabilities of these companies piggy backing off each others EPS numbers, then you have been quite the point collector..as many as 8 or 9 pts off the two in two days.  The other trend widely seen is that of oil related plays. You simply go where the momentum goes and what happens is you increase the odds tremendously in favor. It's not rocket science and we're definitely no rocket scientists but just like one must have street smarts to survive... playing into human nature, the psychology of the trader/investor takes you to where the herd is, better yet where its going to be. There is 63 dollar barrels of oil on the wall.....63 barrels of oil...literally as this is the area of resistance and we are at it.  If this is wiped clean soon, a new trend most likely emerges and that is Oil clicks on.  The last few days run into this resistance area was capped today by a beautiful move out of ALY.  DJIM has its oil stocks and ALY has been here since day 1 to trade in this segment, today was its long awaited graduation as it popped 10% to $21.  If you are new here, last night Journal entry noted DJIM stocks we like to trade when this segment gets interesting. The foreign telcos, the Oils are two trends we traded in our favor...the probabilities were in our favor to finish the days... green not red!......

A few others from today...

FSYS, a DJIM alert note in the morning just before the open, spiked early from $18.4 to 19.40 before consolidating for most of the day. Volume perked up nicely after noon. We like the chart on the daily for possibly more from this recent earning play.

RVBD continues to be the resilient tech. This was noted in the morning as it tried for highs at $34 in a not so happy market. We liked the volume action as it broke $35 late in the day, even if you flipped today that's as much as 3%. We like the chart too much to flip, instead we added as the day progressed into another NCH.

CMT, a DJIM alert pick up last week continued to paint a quiet, yet nice chart closing with another NCH

BIDU, RIMM, FTEK all these had some spark from news, rumors and are looking good.  We are a bit more comfortable with the market and have increased our buying, trading the probabilities that are in our favor as we closed off November.

A long DJIM trading day!......VNDA>>DLB

We prefer to remind ourselves tonight why we DON'T play the biotech/pharma game instead of taking out the poms-poms for DJIM.  Of course the gains can be tremendous as we saw by the first alert trades in VNDA..$21 to $22, that's about 35-40% from yesterdays close.  But... what if we play this game of Russian roulette and we wake to a drop of the same size because of poor results and then we go lower and lower before the bell.  One thing we recognized recently and mentioned last week is VNDA has the capabilities of getting MOMO as seen in November.  We didn't expect a release, just a breakout from this tight range as the stock was acting funky lately, yesterdays close showed some hidden promise...This (momo) was clear and center in our minds as the stock gapped to $21, 35-40% was nothing for this stock, we knew it was capable of doing much more and the first thing we did was probably add 10X the size we already held.  The gains off those morning trades made the pick ups at $15+ a backdrop as the stock traded $28+ and another 35% off the first trades this premarket.  The point is simple, we have never seen the risk in playing these worthwhile and tying up cash...waiting and waiting for some trial news.  At the end it comes down to what you do after the 'news', not before!. We doubt this will turn into anything close to the ACOR we played here, but there will probably be a leg here or there to jump on as this stock gets discovered.  Right now, it might become more of a Pharma acquisition play. Many big Pharma are losing sleep and going a little schizo these days, VNDA could be their cure.

While the DJIM China stocks rest, their comrades the Russian telcos seem to be acting just fine. MBT, VIP, ROS and led by GLDN showed strength in a lacklustre market. GLDN, the volatile of the bunch continued yesterdays bolt to new highs, volume has been excellent the last two days. ROS is the crawler in the family, we alerted under $38 and today finished 39.69. Nice chart if you have a second to spare.  MBT and VIP seem like they don't want to consolidate for too long and instead make a run for the recent highs. As market deteriorated after 2pm, these seemed to hold and even pick it up throughout the day. We'll see tomorrow.

So our DJIM day started at 7:30am with VNDA and was still ticking at 6:00pm with a Cramer tick on DLB with a $30+..Guess the man got the alerts this week;). We would have preferred to let this play out on DJIM time but we won't be afraid to take some early profits if its called for tomorrow.  Stay on your toes tomorrow for the market, don't give up what you've earned.

A little bit of everything...

Of course, if you simply stare at the index and listen to CNBC today, you'd find it no more than a torturing experience.     The market seems to be stuck, as suggested by the index action and as well as the commentators would have you believe.    But if you look closely, especially the list off the DJIM stocks, you'd find plenty of action here and there.

The key here for us, is to play those that are attacking the new 52 week high off the DJIM watch list.    When a stock fails to advance or stalls at 52 week high, we reduce and lock in profit.    Having a list of strong stocks and constantly updating by adding new plays and deleting old ones ensure that you are always playing with the best stocks with potentially the best setup.     Here are some highlights..

Russian stocks,  GLDN and ROS continued their march upwards and left their stalled comrades MBT VIP behind.  Eventually these cracked the 9ema recently.  We are focusing more on the first two while keeping an eye on the rest.

Sugarcone, IPSU had a very nice follow through and in fact it was not late buying earlier today.

Surround sound,  Cramer surely discovered DLB at $30 and it's a definite bonus which is already 20% gainer for us.  Briefingcom has been all over it as well.

We also like the follow through on POWL and a nice setup on FTEK.    Two of DJIM's fav. oil co. BTJ/ALY have made new closing highs as well.     This market has become much more selective and it's understandable that many traders simply just want to take it easy for the rest of the year given the long stretch of rally we've had.    The best course of action for us is to let market show us what's working and we'll go from there.  

Short term bets into '07..

No M&A activity is going stop the distribution, profit taking we touched on last night on the NASD.  Add on head banging resistance and you get a 42 point swing from hi to lows of the day.  Some of this showed up in DJIM stocks and a lot of it didn't. You could say a few deserved some profit taking.  AXR and GROW shot to $137+ and almost $70 respectively, both about 5+% above Friday's already somewhat extended close.  You could throw JST into the mix.  Basically the 3 biggest runners exhausted themselves as the NASD turned late morning.   Excluding the oil related issues, AXR/JST sustained the most pain.  There was little pain elsewhere among DJIM names as most finished green..barely ...but green is green!.  The great thing about that is if you scare easily, today provided you with an opportunity to sell your stock near a top while the rest of the market struggled ..

ATNI ZOLL OPTM and almost all the NYSE stocks closely followed at DJIM...DLB MBT VIP closed green.

The best of the day were ABM, which kissed $24 and finished up 2.5% with a NCH.  The other is ROS which tacked on another $1+ and a new NCH. These two definitely have some new found interest out there, we're not the only ones liking how these are trading.

Todays action started with a decline in the small caps but eventually the large caps took over.  If this round of selling continues, never forget your stock could be next.  In small cap land,  they sometimes fall like dominos. The best performers take it hard and those are most likely here at DJIM.  Luckily, this market has had the dip buyers at every turn to support any tumble. It shouldn't be any different into the end of '06 if this was to occur.  We are just leaving it to short term bets now, not too many sleep overs for us.