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Entries in ININ (2)



An important end-game in trading is not to overthink, contemplate every whipsaw intraday.  This is the ‘space’ we are in (SPX 1260-1280) and a 6bln ES trade that supposedly spooked the market quickly intraday is really just a boring market looking for an ‘excuse’ to sell…”As 1280 invokes ‘R’ for the past week, the market impulsively sells off here and will continue to find an excuse to take some profits”. DJIM#2.   Don’t look too far into reasons for a swing intraday such as today’s unless there is a worthy newsflow headline.   It is what it is….. as seen by the volume decrease from last week and that is a market awaiting earnings and/or a bad sovereign bond auctions coming up (shorts futile hope).    An illiquid market will exaggerate any move, so look at Shadowlist if individual stocks are moving with the SPY/ ES to gauge the significance.  Up or down.   Clearly, today single stocks did not follow the steep drop.   Add the ‘blizzard’ for Wednesday in NY + long weekend ahead and nothing will likely be decided till earnings get rolling post-holiday.

In all,  if some profit taking around 1280 is the game,  get cash ready to use for new earnings plays in the coming weeks instead.  This is also one way to avoid any correction, if one comes in 2H January.


  • Momentum/earnings/“winners of ‘10 –   No noteworthy flow, EQIX  added 2.5 intraday, but a squeeze never materialized.  Action was better on Monday.  Previous DJIM,  ININ  was the notable winner off an earnings guide, but this one has a history of gapping and not doing much for weeks after.
  • Commodities-   A thin tape is when a WSJ journal story/ DB group upgrade creates exuberance.  Still, WLT  being DJIM’ fave coal for ages was the biggest beneficiary +6pts, so let it be.. USDA coming up for Ag’s space.
  • Consumer-   Retail group still lagging as TIF’s  guide did nothing except get the stock faded off a good open, no follow through…yesterday..(Retail looked better. Our list includes TIF, PVH, FOSL to trade if this has any follow through). LULU  upped  guidance AMC and it will be interesting to see if it holds its gains tomorrow for the whole group.
  • Miscellaneous-  a nice guide from a Med-tech HTWR, under consideration to add to list
Apr282011 it over yet?

The earnings momentum engine was losing some steam before market open (BMO), but no one noticed luckily as the Bernanke show overshadowed today’s lacklustre earnings. Simply, the very positive results from Tuesday couldn’t be matched, it’s best that earning reports today took a backseat.  As far as the ‘show’, it’s contents minus any potential screw up by Bernanke were released at lunch hour and market responded positively as everything and anything dovish is ‘easy money’ and was ‘confirmed’.  The USD started to get whacked lower at 12:30 and that was the tale to be for rest of day.  As much as this conference was and will remain fodder for debate, the reality is it was a non-event.  If austerity was 2010 word of the year, one of 2011 finalist might be ‘transitory’ after today. Enough said, let's move on, it's over with. 

This week’s enthusiasm for earnings and FED likely gets digested for rest of week after hitting SP 1355 level. Attention should turn to big April eco data/Macro starting next week, including ‘debt ceiling’ noise as recess concludes.


Commodities –  The beneficiaries today were clearly the PM’s as they exploded higher.  As far as everything else, Copper was weak and base metal stocks (coals, steels) didn’t participate in the USD plunge and underperformed.  Nobody is talking about the Shanghai now, but the 4-5 consecutive down days and technically negative below 50ma is something to monitor for our markets and commodity groups (possibly more tightening on it’s way)

Momentum/ earnings/ winners of ’10 –  There is a lot of discrepancies in how tech linked names react to earning, so it’s hard to know what may run or not.  APKT  ran off a disappointing guidance that only matched their 'own' guidance, while a peer ININ  beat Tuesday and gets sold off.  KEYN  is another one that should have done better today as well as BIDU after hours.   AMZN  likely confused a few in it’s impressive comeback. Opticals, JDSU and FNSR  (noted here recently for eyeing gap) outperformed.