YourPersonalTrader- Toronto Canada/ London UK

DJIMSTOCKS- since 2006 - Toronto, Canada/ London UK

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Entries in SAM (2)


"420" smokin out the Bears party ..

Where there's smoke...there's fire, or as in the case of the market, there's the smell of Bear hide after this days trading...

Maybe we didn't get the straight combination trifecta, but headlines of #1.  GS earnings, #2. FED, #3. VISA ipo pricing in mid $40's after hours is close enough.   All coupled you have to say we were off to the races.    How else would you describe a +420/91/54 ticket!.    Today was a beautiful follow through and a great reminder of why we love this sport.    Hopefully, we guided you in the right direction and you were prepared so far this week.    After is about preparation, whether it's through charts, due diligence or just experience and knowing what and where you should be trading at certain times.    As always, the point of the Journal is to lead, to give insight to our thoughts in respect to the markets and the stocks within.   For many of our members this is a huge time savior.  No clicking through hundreds of charts on a daily basis, no real due diligence on companies etc.   We provide the traders insight, trading methodology and the stocks to watchlist and use it on.   We don't need a 100-300 stocks to monitor, we have a compact Grade A watchlist of maybe 40 stocks that evolves day to day.   The worn out get tossed to backup lists, fresh faces emerge all the time.  Some previously used up and brought back and recycled.   This is plenty to be very profitable on and it's easy to follow.     We only have to watch the ticks on our stocks/list, concentrating on what is already in front of us and not going through endless pages of other information, trade prospects intraday.     We run a shadow service you might say.    So, let's leave all the hoopla to all the others today and focus on how this played out from here in about 48 hours and how you could make the most  advantage out of DJIM, especially if your are new to the scene here...

  • Sunday night, we all got the shock of the $2 deal for BSC with the futures pointing down big time overnight.    We discussed the significance of BSC the previous Tuesday, it dampened that Tuesday rally for us.   Lost in the translation Sunday was the FED activity, we gave it half the Journal ..."Tonight the FED is proving to be adamant again on doing whatever is needed to halt the poisonous cycle by cutting the discount rate by another .25pts and created another new lending facility in efforts to boost market liquidity and bring some kind of stability.  The boys certainly are working overtime this weekend and last week, unfortunately their efforts are not going to be seen in the futures tonight".   Well, it might not have been seen by many as very important that night,  but 48hours later every talking head is on this ground breaking move.   Guess, its ground breaking when you see the powerful SPX climb from 1257 to 1330 within that time     Come Monday at 730am, we shared a JPM report and the major changes within this next FED tinkering.   If you read the report, you were probably not surprised by the fight the market put in the morning at the lows and the springboard follow up.   So what should we all do?.   We go to our fave lists and start looking for something to chew   You don't need us at this point to pick a stock, you should know by now what you favor after trading it many times over at DJIM.   You know what's been working the last month or two!.  This is what we meant by the ' usual suspects' we'd be buying in alerts 40 minutes before the close if the IWM popped 65.50, which it did less than 5 minutes later before giving way to last minute selling.   SAM a 5% day now sits near highs and CLHB are two others you should have on your Grade A list as we do.      We talked before Tuesday's open... "If GS and LEH come out with some assurance that liquidity isn't a problem and things aren't nearly as bad as people fear, we think this market may generate enough momentum to start a rally".     No guessing who were the darlings today is there.    The prices in premkt was the alert everything was rosy, we don't have to alert these things.   We also said,.. "The commodity prices 'apparently' all reversed today and took some pretty heavy damage.     In our opinion, if this is the first drop in a while, we are inclined to buy on the dip".    Apparently to others because we don't really trade Golds and Silvers.  The dip was Monday and we were buying them the 'usual suspects' late..anything like the often mentioned FDG,CMP,X, MOS etc.   You could have been buying late Monday or early on Tuesday any of our closely followed stocks and had a nice day by 11am after the GS/LEH gave the green light.     We outlined our intraday set ups today because it was an important day and the intraday ticks we were eyeing, we did get a stop at 67.0-.10 on IWM and guess what?.   The support line 65.50S was the bounce level after FED's .75 and then after kissing 67.40R for about 10-15minutes, the IWM exploded and the market followed in tow to a 420 day and left the Bears up in smoke.

If we thought Monday's day felt different than all the other reversals,  we are even more inclined to believe this has legs in the short term following this monster of a day.  The sentiment has changed, there is confidence emerging and there is of course lots of money on the sideline that won't want to miss the potential reversal of fortune.  In just 48hrs, the Bears $2 BSC ticket to market riches got screwed and there must be exhaustion setting in.    Coming into Wednesday trade, we expect a dip at the open or shortly, but we feel the trading environment has changed and money will be buying the dips, especially money coming off the bench.   We also have the advantage of a holiday weekend where the shorts may just rest instead of dealing with 3 days of what ifs.   Lots of the focus will be on the VISA IPO and will signal lots to the market. The pricing has already, now it gets more interesting to see.  We played some MA into this day even though there is this misconception that investors need to switch teams and do VISA now.   Actually, its mostly one ponytailed talking head spreading this smoke.  We think why not own both!. The painted close erased quite a few points, but AH's it climbed back up 4pts and we sold some just in case.  We'll look to re-position in this long running DJIM stock as we get a feel for the sentiment on VISA's day.    The GS and LEH are definite buys on dips going forward from here.   MS may add to the sector fire here today.    A few notes on our closely followed into the trading day, AG's-chem, the MOS and POT got some negative press from Barrons Online and either a early sell or buy the dip or both scenario exists here.   Also, some coals were upgraded at JPM this am (ICO, MEE).      Again, a reason to buy the dip when the market gives it.   This group is led by FDG in our books.   JRCC did a mall offering and will give an opp on the dip.   Remember the recent EPS day, if not just look at a chart and you'll clearly see what it can do. 

Oh yeah.."420"..guess you can Google it or ask your kids about..



DJIM #14  2008

As the jobless rate spiked down to 2003 levels, it is almost impossible to argue a recession is in place, but it is also impossible to say that the Bear haven't lost it's grip on the markets as we saw the Bulls pulling the indices up and shrugging off the jobless number.   As we discussed all last week, the ability of the market to hold onto its gain after the 3%+ rally was signalling the selling had cooled down and this time it would be different than what followed the March rallies of the same proportions.   If this is indecision on the sellers than its good sign as they are not sure of things as before, the only argument they may use now is calling the low volume suspicious and that they are just waiting to rattle the rally.   Either way, it's not your problem or ours as our goal is to capitalize when the chance arises and last week we think did just here as DJIM's players, our index you may say outperformed anything in sight.  We had some nice alert leads ahead of the curve on CMP, DRYS, MELI and it's nice to see them getting some headlines right after.     When you're ahead of the curve, you get a chance to sell to the herd!.  That's the game!.  CMP was noted on CNBC as a stealth play behind POT, MOS, we profiled it in December, and it spiked in premkt and was a feature story on IBD this weekend. DRYS was referenced on the front page of Barrons this weekend to a good story inside.    Heading into the week, it's quite simple as there is no reason to change what's working and that's everything off our primary watchlist relating to...." Agri/chem, Steels, high beta Technology to Shippers, Solars and even oil stuff".   What will most likely come to hand this week is an important technical picture to track.  This is where volume comes into play that wasn't there last week, if it comes to the upside it will drive the market through resistance 12800.  If we see the 12800 coming with dry volume, we will most likely take positions down and wait for a clearer picture to emerge.   Right now, the Transports are leading the way and that is a very important positive signal for what possibly lies ahead for the rest of the indices, including the general economy.   Little economic data flow this week should allow an opportunity to potentially trigger some of the resistances and that is what we'd closely track this week. 

We've tweaked the DJIM primary tradelist, shadow list.  We've taken down a few financials as we don't need to monitor, trade 4-5 now and a few others that are just boring now like SAM, HURC.    Still the latter are EPS wins and if we get that trade again as we're starting to see, we'd keep them close to our primary list.  We've added the GU, JST as more on the speculative side, reason speculative you may say is because we'd rather lay our bigger dollars on the expensive stuff that's been working as that is where the volume allowing for easy exit is and where the sideline money from institutions is flowing to.   In the good ole'days when EPS and sector plays from midcaps rolled these would be on top of our list probably.   Times have changed and we need to see the momo game come back to go heavy at this point in these types.   Remember, if the mkt reverses in anything that resembles the past, these lower volume, cheaper plays will slide harder and have bigger spreads going down as buyers will dry up.    Simply, don't become complacent now just because the market is good and you think you're indestructible.   Others are included following mentions in alerts, Journal the past two weeks....MELI, RIG, CSX, SCHN.    WLT is another name we're adding.