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Entries in AFAM (7)



and possibly more churning ahead of us!    Despite the fact we are green today, we are very much in a churning mode.    As far as the overall picture is concerned, this is considered healthy.     We churn churn until we see a clear break out or break down of the major indices.    If we break out, we would know exactly where the resistance is but if we break down, it's hard to gauge the exact support line.   Of course, you can always argue that last July's low may be the area but we feel that low may be too low for the current market environment.  All this market gibberish does not mean there were not a load of tradable opportunities from this weekends DJIM#11 and that is all we care about end of day!.

So what's happening with the market these days?   We think many chasers have the answer and we are sure they are having a blast taking advantage of some of the headlines there over the past 2 weeks.  We have said its a traders market the past 10 trading days, it's a scalpers market and this all most use the service for.   Does that mean we all have to switch our strategy now to a day trader mentality and chase the headlines one at a time?   Of course, we were all going a little brain dead sitting in a lot of cash, but it does not mean you switch your strategy and start going for the headlines just because you are a little bored.  If you're not at work...Have an early drink and then a nap but don't switch your style!. is not for scalpers, headline chasers.  Scalping, flipping headlines is not for the majority of subscribers here and this type of trading is not for us.    For us, we just can't see ourselves going through that transformation and there were many lessons learned from the past that we have to stick to what we are good at, more so now than ever.     Besides, there's really no art or longevity to trading briefing type of plays unless you have no trading life or life and can address and listen to 300 "peeps" alerts all day..then read and then be ready to jump in and out.   We prefer to use our own imagination and our own opinions.  It helps as any news wire, but it's not something we need or would ever live by to trade.  Also,  it's two of us against 300 of them in an office and we still get out enough winners to live off before they get to profiling them.  That has been shown way too many times over the past few years.  Anyways...We gave a weekend hit list for Monday as to what we'll be looking to trade.  You didn't need a Briefing for these moves, all you needed was a "lead' from DJIM;).. FSLR+11.2%  TSL+9.2%  CYNO +8.45% BTJ +7.5% JSDA+9% or give a "one damn eye " on AFAM when it had traded 100 shares premarket at 20.90 and then later to a high of $23.90.   Nobody is expected and we don't expect to catch all these moves, but if you had a small hit list as given last night... you should have had a stellar day just by going after one or two.   What we are giving is what we are looking at, if you don't want to look at it and give it some attention when its behaving well..meaning it's green and getting interest....well then you're missing the point of DJIMstocks.  You should not be looking for other opportunities if these are in front of you already and working.  We become oblivious to other names when the going is this good.  All efforts and capital are with what is working!!!.  No time for laggards!!!  No time to look for other plays.     OK...   We weren't fans of JSDA and said last night we'll see...well we saw very good interest and traded it but still are not waving the Maple Leaf flag.  Still fresh on our minds as per Journal and IBD listing and therefore this should've been on top of your trading list as well for the day. End of day we are empty of it, but will play it again. No flag burning, we will just wait to see if it has more in its tank. 

So how do we approach this market then?    We are still finding some of those earning plays that we've been covering for a while and singling them out as our trading candidates.   Here are some more...

BTJ, could it be that ppl are discovering this stock for the first time and trading it like a momo or could it just all be IBD fever?    We think it may be a little of both and we are definitely leaning more toward that IBD thesis and as pointed out last night the steadiness of Oil over $60 recently..helps!.   Yes, it's ranked as #1 IBD100 over the weekend and the reaction today is very good, especially given the fact how much it has climbed last week.    At this point, we have to caution that being IBD #1, this stocks's fundamental may be thrown out the window and momentum/trading will be taking the dominant force behind the action.   Watch the action more and don't ever let your feeling of "how much the stock should be worth" get in the way of making proper entry/exit point as the stock behaves along.

FSLR TSL, this pair has definitely been our favourite solar plays, or rather, the only solar plays we trade during the last few days.    Again, we'd favour FSLR slightly more here as TSL is more prone to "gap downs" off weakness in Asia.    Also, we are pointing out that these two are mainly eps driven, and this is the reason why these two have the biggest momentum among the solar space.    See, the action still comes down to earning.     So are we going to play any other solar laggards?   At this point, we aren't even considering touching any other solar plays b/c in the world of stock market, only the best get rewarded.   In other words, there's no second or third place when it comes to naming a best play.     We have been trading these ones aggressively on the long side but we have been doing it with smaller sizes than we would normally do in a favourable market condition.    

EML, this little one made a new closing high but we aren't willing to give it a hard chase b/c of the volume and still just hold a part of position from earning time.  The point of pointing this one out is that odds are always on your side when you are stuck with an "eps story" as oppose to other kind of plays. Just look how far SYNL, EML have come since being DJIM insertions last Q. If you want to tuck a stock in a drawer these thinsters with earnings provide a safe play early on.  AFAM and EML are very similar, except AFAM has a history of holding its big gains better.  AFAM made a revenue high of 26.32mln and reported a high EPS Q of 26c vs. 16 YOY.  We held a small piece through to close after taking advantage in some of the 3 pt move intraday.  Simply, we don't want DJIM filled with these plays at this time, it does not mean you can't put it in a drawer.  It just should not be the focus of so many members as EML started to become at one point early on.


Tricky Environment

Maybe we should have a huge sigh of relief over today's results or better yet, a drink or two!   Overseas markets were rocked by 'our' yesterday's mkt,  so expecting a retest of the recent low was just about what everyone expected.   What everyone expected came as expected but we bet not many expected such a wimpy test of the low and the almost immediate recovery.   In conclusion last night, we mentioned a break of the recent low support and then a break of what should become resistance to the upside quickly as a possibility.  Well, it happened and we could get continuation but this definitely puts this market in a trickery position as this happened a little too fast and easy.   If you believe that we've just hit the bottom then further churning would make this thesis very healthy.   If you believe that there's way more downside to come, then today's action may be nothing more than a wishful blip until the real selling starts.

Either way, we don't take a stand and we take the action one day at a time.   One thing is for sure though, we keep mostly cash and only trade with small sizes and trade those names that are currently in favour and in play.  Of course, if momentum comes we add and trade some parts intraday making sure we are not over extended overnight.   This may sound too corny to many of you b/c we have been saying this just about everyday but unfortunately we have to show how serious we are when it comes to how we approach this market.

Here are some stocks we've been trading today....there were a few nice opp's out there.

ASTI, perhaps we should've alerted this a little earlier and the reason why we didn't is that the index was getting hammered earlier and we weren't sure if any plays could've been dragged lower by the potential panicky market action.   When the index turned around, we knew we want to get out hands on this one as we thought the news the co. released was some very positive stuff.  Still a possible opening entry was available between 7.50 to 7.90's after we threw it out for some time.  We think this may legitimize this co. as a solid player in the solar space.   The float is tiny and momentum was strong.  

AFAM had a beauty of a day with a close over $25 and now is 4+ points since Mondays note on it premarket off earnings.

TSL, no one is a stranger to this stock, we chased some near the end looking for some follow through tomorrow.    Keep in mind, as long as this one is above its 9 ema and near 52 week high, this one would always be in play off a strong index move.

BTJ, maybe we shouldn't call this an oil stock anymore.   This looks as if it has IBD trading all over it.   Yes it's currently ranked as #1 IBD100 and yes emotion is high with this one.   Throw out the fundamental and pure action takes over when it comes to BTJ.   We'd be following its action closely to gauge its momentum.  It works both ways never forget.

The most entertaining was the mother of all squeezes in LEND that was just beginning when we noted it in the forum in the low 5's.  Even if you didn't trade it and only watched, you probably still got a rush out of it racing to 6.60's.  Anyways, it was a good reminder of why we love this gig! ..Cussin' for all the right reasons in amazement instead of yesterdays type of cussin' at the market.  We'll keep this close by for another intraday trade after getting to know its potential.



What Bracket?

Seems the East, Midwest, West and South brackets are more important than the Trading bracket game to many today...or did we just need a breather and some caution before tomorrows CPI?.....or maybe too many were hypnotized by the Level 2 trading on  Man, we're turning that damn thing off..promise!..another day of that and we'll need medication to get over the spins besides a stint at rehab.  That was definitely the 'play' the last two days doubling since yesterdays mention.  Either way there was some follow through on the indices and many DJIM small caps performed well and that is what we are taking into Friday.

ASTI, it really had no chance today for more gains as the Solar plays FSLR, TSL fell out of bed at the open and never got up. If ASTI starts to act like the others it will be a good sign of recognition in the space and we wouldn't mind that all.  The ups or the downs, as long as it is bunched in with the familiar names.  Sooner than later the market cap comparisons to those bigger names will get this noticed even more.  Considering the day it had yesterday, todays dead solar dead day and being down this much is nothing to a low float stock.  Another thing is to not forget the price of the deal.  It was big 23% of shares and with a big name (NHY),but it was $5.77.  This deal, this stock needs to digest the gains over the placement price.  Give it time, the smart ones will probably be accumulating this over next little while on any dips. Also... a morning note today from Lazard had some nice price targets on the solar stocks, one of which was a $65 target on FSLR.

By the open tomorrow after the CPI is released, we will know what to do with these names.  If we can look forward to any buying before the weekend it is on these familiar DJIM stocks, HDNG UEIC CYNO BTJ and AFAM.  Oh yeah, blast from recent past CCF is almost there too, but we'd prefer to be trading something more liquid now.   All these EPS stocks are looking pretty good as they are at highs (HDNG AFAM) or looking for a sign to get at one.  At this point we have small pieces of each and will look to add on those showing momentum...if momentum shows its pretty face.

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DJIM #12  2007

For the week, the indices consolidated and despite a reversal Friday there were a few new plays emerging. 'But'..considering we still don't have any indication of where the market will blow, the same strategy holds going into the trading week as we've discussed numerous times.  What you like to do is to hold stocks that are strong when the market turns like it did Friday.  We made a few buys Friday and for the most part they continued strong into the close.

DXPE, might have made it over the hump with its earning.  We've been following DXPE since its first earning surprise below $10 and it kind of feels like it might become a tradable play once again after a long stay in the house of boredom.  Reported .68 vs. 43c/ Rev 79mln vs. 55mln.  What we like is the sequential growth!.   After a couple of flat sequential Q's, this one proved DXPE has some growth left in its tank and that's what you want if you hope momo traders will start looking at it again.  Anyways, it's good to see there might be another play besides BTJ in this sector that fits into DJIM's mold.

HNSN was a nice quick pickup for those buying, not shorting in the $19's for a quick and furious run to over $21 mid day. This is a medical device player that we've traded before and it seems to be picking up some noise again.  This was a perfect example of a stock wanting new highs.  The nice open and then the pullback where you can load up as it starts to move back up.  That's what we did adding to the starter position and blowing past the initial highs.  Patience.  We've kept some but are not wasting 10% trades without taking them profits on the trading position we acquired during the move.  Oh yeah...Seems Cramer thinks its the next

GLDN , we noted Thursday night to keep it up there on your trading list despite a cool first day on earnings.  It pulled off a 5+% move, one of the best on the day and now sits over 9ema.  What impressed us was the volume, end of day it had volume it had not seen since being a DJIM pick up in the $30'S.  We'll see if this means more upside soon enough.

AFAM, our little pick up recently made a quiet debut on IBD #77.

Solar plays will be interesting to watch this week after gettin' a beatin' Friday after some broker comments.  We'd still look to FSLR, especially after IBD's profile this weekend.  Remember, we mentioned CYNO last weekend as an IBD play and the follow up big day Monday.  We think this is a little different as FSLR falls in with many names , while a CYNO was less known and not really thrown in with other names in its sector, so it could move on its own.

For other plays we are following/ or trading, see Thursdays Journal.  Most of those names including HDNG held up pretty good. Some other notables are in charts like NVTL, which just keeps ticking slowly along.


DJIM #13  2007

As we head into another week of trading, we begin to wonder who is doing the 'blowing'. was like hurricane gusts to propel this market.  All this despite oil going back to $62 and a few other world issues that didn't dampen the buying during the week.   Someone ' big' wants this market up...might the earnings and guidance coming up be a reflection of this enthusiasm or we just being set up for a hard thrashing at the awaiting tops???.  The timing seems quite interesting as we approach another earnings season.  Should be interesting.  Our strategy remains the same as we take this day to day, attacking opportunities as they come before us.  Last week was a hoot on many trading fronts....we hope we get a third of it this week.

ASTI provided the speculative trading. We tried to walk our strategy on DJIM cause ASTI seemed to have a chance of catching momo.  This momo can be a powerful thing and could also be a dangerous thing.  We've done the same with EFUT, FFHL giving in depth thoughts as it trades along.  What momo brings is also greed as all of a sudden 20% in a few days is just not enough.  We gave our next entry point as to when we were expecting a break and some momo and then a heads up premarket Friday to watch that good ole' Mr. Greed as the stock gapped and gave you an opportunity to pocket the gap winnings.  We said our script was written to that point, this means Mr.Greed was not going to look over our shoulder the rest of the day.  How will it trade this week?. Who knows but this story will have ample opportunities to trade in and out in the future.  We'll be there in size again but for now we'll hold a small position only.

OEH,  provided the long term DJIM thinking coming to fruition with a 3bln price tag attached. If you didn't take a position on this speculation we talked about a few months ago, it shouldn't have stopped you from buying and profiting nicely in the last 3 days of trading.   It still gave a 2-3 pt day Friday after we pointed out in the forum that the price some are expecting could be higher.  We've held quite a bit into weekend hoping to wake up to a buyout on merger Monday. This is a safer type of greed as we look for a few more points.

The big gains last week came from the Oil/Gas equipment/field services etc and DJIM was there with BTJ and its 13+% week.  Here, we also have DXPE which looks to be building up for a move higher.  If you are going deeper into this sec/energy, we threw out OYOG, which IBD says this weekend  is within a buying range.

On the Russian front, GLDN which was already a go here in last weekends Journal went from low 52's to a few cents shy of $57. But the play mentioned Monday night, might be VIP going forward. Why?. you remember how this went last Q when we took on MBT and then said we could get a spill into VIP and other Russian telcos. Guess what, MBT put out very good earning and this should be a hint of what to expect from VIP's earning.  VIP closed with a NCH Friday.  Also... one of DJIM early plays, WBD made a nice run late in the week to close at NCH and should be potential playlisted.

As far as Solar, we said last weekend they'd be interesting to watch and as it turned out to trade.  FSLR checked in with a 7-8 points during the week.  It tired some Friday, but maybe that was expected as profit taking sunk in after a big week. finished up there on the chart and remains our favorite solar story/stock to trade.

AFAM, NVTL and others are pretty clear over on BT's charts.

CRZ AMAG, we are watching to uncork a few dollars into but we need to see more action to add.

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Taking more out...

Of course, as we start the day, nobody has any idea how that day will turn out.   Being a trader, it's extremely difficult to prepare yourself "well" for the day.    If you have been in this game for as long as we have, the hardest part of the trading is to anticipate a market "turn".  Sometimes you just go with your market sense, sometimes all this is, is your gut.  Well, we feel today's action is discouraging at best.    The action from indices may be deceiving as there's really no sense of urgency of cashing out.   We feel that under the circumstance, it's best to be more cautionary as oppose to hunky dory.     Maybe it's just us, but we definitely feel that certain plays are getting a little bit tired.  All this might be coinciding with the driving force recently and that is earning season is wrapping up.   How can we tell?   We watch the combination of volume + price action and their behaviour relative to the overall market.     Many if not most of our trading decisions are based on our past experience, and so we decided to reduce our exposure about mid way through the day.     On the other hand, if the market decides to give it another quick push, we'd be there quickly and do our part.   As always, buying decision is far more easier and quicker to execute than selling. At this point, we think weve had a great earning season, we are not about to get lackadaisical look on our faces watching our profits wilt.

There is a couple of stock setups which we feel we need to mention today and let's get right to them...

NGA, this co., oddly enough, announced that they are going to have a 3 for 2 split.   In our opinion, what the heck is the management thinking?  Yes, we definitely do not like this announcement and we reduced most of our position earlier during the day.    The stock, in our opinion, is liquid enough which does not require a split to attract more "investors".  We don't go with management reasoning this will make NGA more liquid and available to investors, including institutions of course.  3 for 2, just doesn't cut it.  Funny thing also, we'd also highly doubt that most of traders who are involved in this stock are long term investors.   In our experience, companies which have announced split at this price level have not fared well, most of the time.   Of course, we aren't just going to ditch this play for good and stick to our emotional opinion.     The IBD play is still on target but we'd be more cautious if we decide to get back into this one again.   

CROX, if it wasn't for the weakness of the overall market, we might have been a bit more aggressive with this one.   Nonetheless, this one had a new closing high and we added a few times to day, including near the end of day.

MTOX, this one actually turned out to be possibly the best trade of the day.   We threw out the 'lead' before 10am and soon were in it mid 26's for a run to 28.  When you have a nice quick gain and the market shows signs of a turn, you have no choice but to give up your new pick. Maybe..we should have bought back end of day as it fell back down to low 26's, but we were just not in the mood to get cheeky.

SPAN, RCCC, NTLS, AFAM, these recent alert plays are humming along quietly in the background and we've used that to sell some just in case.  These have been secondary plays in sizes as the NGA, IDSA's, LXU etc. have been the primary plays lately.  We still have some scattered shares of these, but it is nothing that can do any sort of damage to us.

ERS, we picked up some AH's, just couldn't ignore the 40% revenue increase with the stock hovering near recent low's. This could be just a flip into any strength tomorrow. We'll see if there is any appetite for this old gamer.


DJIM #21  2007

Sitting Bull wasn't basking in his laurels, recent victories come Friday. Instead, he and has band of M&A and buy back share brothers decided to charge signaling yet more accumulation. Once again the army of bears didn't have the muster to do anything to curtail this frenzy buying.  So we march forward and with every stoppage in play, we continue to expect the ways of the Bull to keep us going with MSFT-AQNT type hoopla creeping into the market. So that's the big world, what's happened in our little world, niche. Well, what can be better than having 3 closely followed DJIM make it to IBD this weekend. Not to shabby to have three (NGA-TBSI-GTI), be the top three new inclusions at # 5,9,26.  Hey even Curlin our sentimental Derby pick, stuck it's nose out with a flurry in the Preakness this weekend.  So..all good seemingly as we head into the week after what appeared as distribution earlier in the week. Still the NASD and small cap indices finished lower on the week and this is the ho-hum in the market that continues to concern us.  Maybe this time these market players play catch up this upcoming week. A hunch is they do.  Also, keep the big oils up as we head into Memorial day. Stocks like OXY, SLB, UPL should do better than the small cap names in this sector because bigger caps have been the leaders. If there is big money wanting to play this sector, it should go to stocks like these. On the charts, these look great and when called for, we like to trade these names.

KHDH, was a new buy in for us. The co's earnings for the most recent Q came out early last week and are up in the Alert section. We've had our eye on it for awhile and this earning as seen by its 2 days with 100k+ volume it got noticed.  We 'll look to add on dips or further strength. This trades in a fashion similiar to a CPY type and so it is possible to do both.  IBD composite rating is at 97.  This might suit the investor who has picked up our May buy in plays like RCCC, NTLS, CUB, SPAN, AFAM.  A few companies that don't get the recognition here on a daily basis because they are just nice and steady plays that you can't say much about on a daily basis.  Speaking of...lets give some of our secondary plays spotlight for a change. They are not secondary for those that can't watch like a hawk the faster plays day in day out from DJIM. These holders are doing just as fine this month without the diet of Pepto.

RCCC, touched on 29.70 from the May 4th buy in at 26.50ish levels(12%). Trades nicely a $1 above the 9ema for the last few weeks. Not much you can say about it steadiness, except watch the 9ema as a guide.

NTLS, also an early may pick up in the higher 22's as another wireless play a la RCCC.  Just like RCCC this EPS play closed with a NCH at 24.4 and is gliding on air just above the 9ema. A possible 8% is nothing to sneeze at in a couple of weeks.

CUB, a buy-in low 22's off earning popped to a $24.30 close Friday. Just another 10% play so far. As much as we like to play the NGA's,IDSA's, there is nothing like patting an account with consistent steady 10% plays.

AFAM has bounced from 20's to 24 since our premkt earnings note May 8th. 7 bucks off highs is only 3 now.

FWLT CROX MA LXU GTI TBSI SPAN SPAR IDSA MR MTOX, other prominent May DJIM plays that we are trading at different times depending on set ups and market conditions.  As far as TRT, FWLT has definitely been the play as its stands 20% above that premkt intro.  Meanwhile, TRT nests back to 9-14ema and at 19 is below 19.50 premkt initial price off EPS. Quite a few of you did not like our stance on TRT after its earning. After our full write up last week it declined 15%,-5 straight down days, we hope you had a change of heart if we saved you a buck or two. Is it going to bounce or is going to fill some of the gap?

NGA, okay... so this followed the script since we first alerted/ bought into at $10, April 30th. The stock traded to high 15's all last week and the suspense was over for us at that point.  The only suspense came back in the last 15 minutes or so Friday, actually it wasn't suspense but a 'you better get there' plea. The inevitable finally happened and now we see if this was only a IBD inclusion play or not?  In other words, will this have the kick to get to the 20's split time. We'll see if the 100k+ comical push in the last 3 minutes will be a forward to a dump-eroo in the morning now that it made it on. Of course, we hope it finishes with a new closing high and continues to be in play.  Consider the flight of IDSA, SPEC recent additions to IBD100.  The following highs on Monday have not been reached again.  We were not warning on Friday, we are only throwing caution to the wind after a possible 50%+ run here.  We see no reason to blow 'any' of the profits generated in the month off NGA and have walked away with plenty in the high 15's already.  It makes little difference to us that we are at those same prices Friday AH's.  We'd be no better off yet if we hadn't sold off most earlier.  Still we have some and most likely will sell into any morning strength and then re-position if further strength is shown during the day or days ahead.