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Entries in VSNT (2)


A true test...

If yesterday was a good test of your holdings against a shaky market, then today definitely gives a true appreciation of how "good" your holds are.     Of course, if we get few more back to back shaky days like today, it probably wouldn't have mattered much what you hold.   Overall, we think the market action is healthy.    For whatever the catalyst/excuse that caused the slide, it's needed to correct this market into a healthier stand.    This is assuming that this is not the beginning of an end for this market here.   At this point, we don't believe it is and we are acting that way also.

We have a number of good closes today and given another hour, we think some more stocks culd have battled their way into the green.    Individualism is running full and strong in this market today.   Breadth is poor but if most of your holdings are in green territory, you'd feel that you are doing something right and will try to keep it up.   Can you imagine if last two days were up?   We'd been asking that question throughout last couple of days...

KMGB LPHI,  these two were the stars two days off their respective earnings announcement and they've held up very well despite the market weakness.   We added some LPHI today because we feel this one has had the best action amongst our holds.

CROX, good stock battles back and this one did exactly that toward the end.     As it comes near its split date and we think the action will heat up accordingly.

AHD, so this one only did less than 40k shrs today.   This stock also has only 4 mill float and probably less if you take into account the institutional holders.    We liked the deal that was announced couple of days ago and think this one definitely has the potential to move up.

GHM CUB put in very respectable green days as well.

Many recent names here such as NTLS MFW LXU RCCC ATLS TTC SPAR MA TBSI barely broke a sweat in the profit taking sweep across the market,  even the volatile TNH battled at over $95 till the last 30 minutes. 

One we added today, VSNT (Co reported May29th,Q2 EPS of $0.52 vs $0.32 in 2Q06; revs rose 37% YoY to $5.2 mln (no estimates). Co raises FY07 guidance to $1.50-1.62) falls into above category.  But as we said at the start, if we get more shaky days it probably won't matter what you hold.  Unless it's cash of course.



What can we learn from today?

...or what can we learn from the past few days?   We are learning that we can not draw any definitive conclusion about this market.    It just looks like it doesn't take much to push this market into either direction.    The giant point swing is a mere exaggeration of the uncertain status this market is currently in.   Unfortunately, all these volatility isn't creating that many tradable opportunities for most of us.     What we look for here are the plays that can sustain an upward movement for a number of days or enough of a percentage run that make the risk/reward worth while.    So once again, we are just going to take some plays as is and not to extrapolate anything from their movement today.  

here are some notables..

TNH, chemical plays are hot and given a favourable market condition, they tend to out shine most others.    Ok, so we know this is like the beta play when it comes to following the index.   This one can trade very volatile intraday, point wise and you can find a lot of resemblance if you compare to the indices.    Bottom line, this one made a NCH and it's ready to challenge that magical triple digit mark.    Trade this wild one if you can but full attention is required to make the best out of it.  TRA got a buy rating today from Matrix and that got it rolling.  Do take note of the mass defection at $100 once, we tried the other day getting to $99.75 and you could see some shaky nerves at work.

KMGB, it feels like this little one is following TNH and it popped up during last half an hour on a big volume surge.   Momentum is very much alive with this one and we have no choice but to follow through some with this one.

KHDH, this one broke out on a long consolidation base . We added and will be watching this one closely to see if it can muster some extra follow through to give us potentially more over $60.  This has been one steady player since we introduced last earning.

CUB RCCC VSNT,  sure, there seem to be a lot of popular heroes out there today but these three just keep on moving up quietly in their own way.  All three made a NCH.   We are trying our best not to let our eyes off these ones because next thing you know, they are up 10%.   In this market, if you can find something that can get you 10% with a relative low risk within a few days, you'd be considered a champ.

Like we said this weekend....  "If this was a sign of volatility for the summer of 100+/-30+/- pts days, we'd prefer it to the laziness we often start to see at this time of the year".  Opportunities abound with volatility.  Does get funny though when NGA runs on 2 day old information. That's why it's not exactly our favorite environment but it beats the summer lull.