Market Update

When technology IPOs like RVBD DIVX get bid up the way they have been last few days, we just knew that this market is in a very good mood.   whether this mkt is healthy or not is up for debate and fortunately for DJIM traders, it's the least concern for us.    What we are seeing is definitely more and more tradable small cap opportunities.   It does feel like this is one of those time of the year where all our time, capital, effort and focus need to be put where it matters.

TRT,  there's really no need to add to what we've already said.   This is in our opinion the best small cap stock we have seen in a while.

SYX, this one is a tough call.   We hope that those who bought it during the pullback have taken some off the table because there's always a possibility of repeat of last Friday's action.

IAAC, take two!

MR, we are keeping a close watch on this one as it's still currently working off the IPO inventory.   We like this story and think this is right up there in terms of sexiness.

EDU, check out BT's chart on possible course of action.  

DGIT, it just feels like it's just a matter of time before it moves, hopefully higher.

Trading and Killing time...

Well, this week happened to be our least busiest week in the last while.   Doesn't it sound ironic when this week had every big name co.  releasing their earning and Dow broke 12k?   To us, it's just business as usual.    We typically don't get very active during the first couple weeks of earning season as most of the reports are dominated by household names.    But of course, if you happen to run a mutual fund with billions of dollars, this is the crunch time.   For us, we just sit back and look at all this in amusement.    Then again, if you happen to be a multi billion dollar fund manager and are reading our blog, we'd say you definitely need help. lol...Although, we love seeing the million dollar Hedgies coming by;)

For us, we trade because this is the only thing we know how and love.  But in order to have an edge, we have to trade in our own games.    Small caps have been our success and it's been this way for quite sometimes.    Just because the spotlight is on the big caps and indices at this moment, it doesn't mean that small caps have been buried deep in the mud.    All it really takes is a couple of awesome small cap runner that have spectacular earning report and perhaps two to three weeks of hard work, you'd be all set for the rest of the year.    The reason why we don't touch options or other sophisticated strategy here is that we are trying to keep trading to its simplest form, demand and supply.    We think we have a very good understanding of the psychology behind trading of small caps.   There's simply no hiding of emotions when it comes to small caps.     Believe it or not, when it comes to small caps, you can experience surprise, excitement, enjoyment, greediness, top of the world feeling, fear, denial, numb, anger.. all kinds of emotional feeling  within a span of just two weeks.    We love to trade around that kind of emotional environment so we can't wait till the majority of the small caps to start reporting in the coming weeks. (TRT was just early in being late).

Meantime, in order to keep ourself busy other than watching this ridiculous CNBC stuff, here's some stocks of interest.....

DIVX, we think this one is catching its GOOG connection one way or the other.     The chart looks like it's setting up for another possible run up.   We added some and will look for direction next week to trade accordingly.

MR, could this b/o be it?   The volume suggests it's the real deal but how many times we've been faked out by it before? lol    Of course, this one is gonna get our attention in the coming week.

SYNA, this one came to our attention last night when it guided up nicely.   Trading action is suggesting higher price to come.

DGIT, this one defiinely doesn't have the lust it had when we first initially found it, but it's nonetheless worth keeping your eyes on.

ACOR ITMN ILMN, when in doubt, go medical.   These three are also high on our trading list as they are definitely more immune to the sensitive side of the economic data.

some new stocks of interest this week included APH, ALB, RBN and most of the airline stocks....

cheers,

DJIM hold/ hit list wk #12.....incl. BRLC PVA SINA TWLL RVBD

Market is still going through a consolidation phase, and it still means that the priority for us is the capital preservation.    However, it doesn't mean that we'll be shying away from good trading opportunities, and it'd be irresponsible if we don't trade them.      What we at DJIM here stress is that in a time like this, we'd only trade what we think are the best of the best setups and leave the iffy ones alone.    We also do keep our trading time frame per play to a conservative level where we'd take profit on small increments, a $1/point here and there and not get carried away with big positions on any one stock.   We can't wait for 25%+ DJIM benchmark these days, so taking 5 -10% quickly is fine with us.  This style is definitely more difficult to trade compared to riding a few big winners that can offset any small losses from other trades.   We are literally trying to basically do with only the most probable plays, with the least risk.   This comes in the form of stocks with a earnings base for DJIM.  We've heard that many traders around various chat room, blogs surprisingly under performed in October.  We're not sure the path they have taken but we've taken/followed the uptrend path here at DJIM.   Well, unfortunately this game isn't an easy business so only time can tell whether one is cut out to do this for a living, or not.    Here are some recent plays...

The week provided some nice intraday trades off our extended trading thread...CASM, LMRA back to back days in Market Chat.  The first 3 below were mentioned in pre market yesterday. The market survived the eco numbers and some of these provided nice entries off earnings.

TWLL....     This one gave us a little surprise late afternoon as it came on with strong volume and then some follow through, finishing with a NCH.   The earning action definitely looks very strong and we think it may catch some attention around the trading circle.  See more below on TWLL.

BRLC..surprisingly this one traded down to $7.01 after multiple upgrades, a healthy price target of $14 by BMurray after beating estimates handily....7c vs.1 c estimate, revenues climbed 3x.      How this one is going to trade is still remaining to be seen.    Usually when it gaps up like that with that kind of volume, you'd see some more upside down the road.

SINA beat by .5, upped revenue G, multiple price upgrades in the morning and then closes gap to Thursdays close before EPS. That was a Friday morning gift to have a stock with so many positives only trade 1% higher in the morning.  If stocks that beat by .5, raise guidance and only move 1% up, we'd be out of the trading business real fast.!.  We'd be happy with a test of $30 here. The first two might have the better upside in the near term as far as collecting points, profits.

MR, stock had another nch(new closing high) on Friday and we are very encouraged by its action.   This stock is due to release its earning on Nov. 16th and we think there's going to be a pre-earning run-up play.     In last week's DJIM #11, we discussed the further play we were looking for after selling. Monday was a further drop and soon we were sitting on the 9ema ready for another move up.

PVA ..a  O&G/coal.....started to watch closely Thursday off earnings ($1.21 v 1.06). More below on Penn Virginia Cp.

BTJ, it seems a lot of the oil service stocks are perking up lately, there is always something to fuel it..yesterday was one of those days.  This one also made it to IBD100 as #19.   See last weeks DJIM wk #11 for our buy in below $16 , the play we were looking for and got Friday.   We are keeping an eye on ALY as well.

EDU, Chinese stocks immune to the pullback?  Perhaps!   We are certainly seeing strength in many of the Chinese stocks on our trading list.

RVBD, this is one of the techs that broke out on Friday, one of the few techs that are standing out in our opinion. We still can't decide between the APKT, RVBD, DIVX...IPO's.... all we know is they provide plenty of trading opp's at this time, figuring out which will be the champ longer term is anyone's guess. Right now..there is a new champ every week in this IPO tech game.

Speaking of champs, we threw out ATNI at the open mid week ...she was a champ going from $21 area to $24 for many DJIM readers in a few days. We took a lot off near $24 as it seemed a bit tired late in the week. The numbers look great and we look for more out of ATNI. This is a relatively unknown stock, we hope and by the early volume off earnings we think this may be on a few trading lists soon.

RIMM,APH,UCTT round out our lists.  As per BT's charts, ACOR proved it couldn't handle its weight. Looks like many were expecting something out of the CC to fuel it. It didn't happen and many sold off. Still we'll keep this one around DJIM and hope for a news spark.

SYNL, EML are two DJIM profiled quality EPS crawlers..these are for the ones that like their sleep.

So, it seems that we have quite a few new plays on our hand after cleaning house late October. We are basically trying to play the best setups and again keeping our time frame short.   Until the market mood improves or we get a great earnings winner, this is the way we are going to be trading.

..A few good things about cash

One is sitting in it and the other is spending it...same goes for your trading dollar profits, you can sit in it after you worked your butt off, stressed your mind and finally earned it and/ or you can go window shopping and selectively, wisely spend some.  There's always something new come earnings season....last week it was in the JCG window, today REXI came out with a flyer on its earnings. Despite the morning beating of China stocks and tech names, REXI behaved well and we showed it in alerts mid $25's on about 15k volume.  Last night it reported .21 vs .04 on 86% increase in revenues.  The numbers over recent Q's is hard to figure but the reaction this morning showed it was a go.  The chart helped the decision process, as did the thinking Asset management co's have been in favor as seen here with GROW, IAAC.  The stock got some air and hit a intraday high in the mid $27's before closing off just under $27.  One thing we are doing now, since this is a full time gig for us ....is look for fast and liquid movers. The reason is simple...instead of being trapped in a thin stock with a oversized position, a liquid stock provides easy quick exits!.  We are still going with the cautionary flag, so this short term trading opportunity is what we will attempt to catch for now.  Two stocks provided this late in the afternoon as the market improved...DIVX, FMCN. These are not just any stocks getting the groove on, these are earnings plays fitting to DJIM, plus they fall into our trading methodology or is it madness of buying stocks as they move to NCH's.  We don't shy away from this and we wouldn't today.  Adding, buying late in the day is nothing new for us.  Even if you caught the alert note and jumped on it ......around a $1 on each was had for a flip at the close in 30 minutes.  If you held, you could have more or less tomorrow.  Whatever floats your boat!.  FMCN was actually placed on our screens in the morning but it was taken down to $65 with the rest of the China stocks. The reason we were looking at FMCN is WRH came out with a $85 buy target.  All it took was the market to go green for this to become relevant plus a kick off the 9ema.   At about the same time DIVX began to show life, more life than any other tech names as it reversed strongly.  We didn't care to know what the excitement was, we just had the 52 week high in sight and a curiosity as what it would do with it after it took out yesterdays high... Well...the 52 wk high $29.72 was history pretty soon and a NCH of $31.36 at 4pm.  At this point we are trading these, simply this means we could trade this into any morning strength or a weak market or hold longer.  We're not showing any love right now and will trade according to the action we see.

DJIM hold/hit list #17

No denying last week DJIM concentration of stocks outperformed the indecies once again. By mid-week the major indecies ran into some resistance from the rally that began the previous Friday, this is clearly seen in yesterdays charts on DJIM Journal. You can also see the market rise early last week was met with some profit taking on the Nasdaq as the money flow diverged.  What also diverged was the action of the DJIM stocks as many closed with NCH(new closing highs), some were mild but still NCH's by fridays close while the market did little to add on gains late.  These include ALY, BTJ, DLB, JST, HMIN, ZOLL, EDU and a nice tick off the 9ema on MR.  Last weekends DJIM #16 concentrated on the 3 segments we have been riding the uptrend with...China/Asian stocks, Russian telcos and the baby oils and of course the always ready to go,  GROW.  

Interestingly, the baby oils services continued to roll on Friday after the oil sector reversed around noon and oil went from the mid 63's to low 62's, but did not take ALY, BTJ with it.  ALY tacked on about 15% and BTJ another 6% on the week.  

Besides GROW's seemingly fast and climatic rise from 50 to $60's, it managed to create the usual buying opp on the dip as witnessed Friday. We have stated, GROW is in trader territory more than ever and you need to be on constant watch at these prices or at least have buy in dip points in place for another possible trade and push up.  The Asian stocks continued their march with MR, EDU, HMIN up 8% on the week, we cannot forget the cheaper JST which provided a 20% trip with a few bumps in between. The other group we have built around is the Russian telcos which we jumped all over at MBT's earnings.  VIP started the week at $76 and climbed to high $81's and now has been basing with MBT in the backseat.  GLDN tacked on about 3 points and ROS continued its steady crawl.  As always, we look for new opportunities to sandwich in between the heavily followedDJIM stocks in good and bad market days. 

Also this week, we again introduced AXR off earnings and a quick trip from 98-107, BIDU is another one we are trading right now.   Unfortunately, many still think a $100+ stock is not capable of producing nice quick returns and prefer to buy the speculative MAMA's that wear army boots.  

For many all the action in the 3 segments might have been irrelevant if they caught the VNDA moon shot. After mentions December 1st and 4th in DJIM alerts, we and many of you early risers caught the morning alert at $21 -22.  If not maybe some of you were accumulating some with us in the $15's.  This launch was enough for many to call it a week, some a month if you are confident in DJIM words that this was capable of catching the MOMO and jumped at the opp to load up pre market.  We enter week #17 with the same cast, holding many, ready to hit on and add to others..(eg. russan basing telcos like VIP, MBT) as many DJIM's finished the week at or near NCH's, which could be a passport to further gains if the market does not a pull one over eyes early on. 

The only recent DJIM names we are ignoring for the most part is the tech names which have shown distribution with the rest of the Nasdaq..RVBD, DIVX.  

If the Grinch takes a peek and starts up, we will gladly sell some of these top performing DJIM names and take the profits to buy new and bigger toys on the market before the year is up!.  We're not finished yet!   We hope after 16 weeks here, many of our new readers are seeing the joy and potential of trading stocks with a earnings base under them...90% of the stocks we have put up on DJIM that have produced great returns are just that...quality, growth producing companies.  If you are longer term investor, doing some DD on the stocks discussed here and buying months ago could have made your year without calling your FA or pressing the sell button ONCE yourself......BTJ,ALY,MR,EDU, AMIE, TRT, RIMM and so on.  There's a little of everything here to suit a variety of investing needs.