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Entries in FTK (3)


Microsoft earnings...

We're sorry..bad joke....okay unto what's happening in real time, not when Gunsmoke was the deal on the tube;). DJIM real time starts bright and early as this joyous season of earnings only comes around once a year....Wait, it comes around 4 times a year and lasts quite the long time.  What it comes down to is ... EPS season is all year round with us...we play it, trade it, invest in it. We've given the lowdown many times on our trading principles and focus around this type of play.  On to the bright and early...this rush of earnings reports is something to chew on, sometimes its overwhelming at the front loaded season. What we will continue to with the help of fellow traders is try to give you what looks right to us for a trade, a play for that day.  Sometimes this is done on the first cup of coffee, so you better do your own research. We can help you recognize a potential earnings day trade, something we will watch and possiibly trade.  Today, the stars were ZIGO, KSWS, PCCC in premkt. ZIGO in the mid 14's, KSWS 33-34's, PCCC 9.90 at the open. Hopefully some DJIM readers jumped on one or two of these premarket or early on.  All made it to the top 10 percentage gainers during the day.

Earlier this week, we tossed out BTJ, FTK premkt off earnings. Some names given might have earnings calls later, so the numbers that may look swell might be beaten to death by a stuttering CEO. Sometimes there is a trade before, sometimes after the call.  We prefer no call...We don't hold into earnings reports and we don't hold into earnings calls unless the guidance has been revealed to the masses and the trading action indicates we should stick around.  Most of the stocks we put on watch premkt/AH will not end up on the DJIM hold/ hit list, but honestly we can't do anything but trade, so we must trade this opportunity when its presented. This usually helps fund DJIM stocks that we want as longer term holds, call it moonlighting.       Now back to DJIM stocks....

UCTT- this one first because there seemed to be some panic AH. The word 'dump' is something we should not tell the biggest, newest shareholder of UCTT shares. We should not tell the institution (most likely) they bought $1 and change over the closing price on Monday, earnings day. These deals do not happen a buck above the closing price on a particular day, you do not move 1.8 million shares at a premium from one hand to another, you move it lower. It's quite logical as to why, sometimes its just averaging out the deal.  Not being very familiar with the UCTT/ Seiger merger but the other reason for the block could be the business of the M&A. If this doesn't cut it for you, call Oliver Stone tonight or just wait for the morning action to set it, price it straight. Either way, we think the shares at $13 are a treat and not a trick for those buying from the scary people AH. Just like SYX, which we introduced at $13.... UCTT is and was not intended to be IBD material in 48 hours. SYX took sometime and so will UCTT, we think this transaction won't matter down the line if and when this gets truly noticed for it's IBD numbers.

TRT- this is going to the DJIM plot the last few days, except today's early move over $12.50 had us a little stunned. The volume made this impossible to hold. So what happens next is the market catches some air and gives TRT some volume and a push to 13. We still feel its a little early, maybe we are just hoping for a pullback to add. Today's actions tells us it wants to go higher, we're just not sure when the ETA for a test of the highs is.

RIMM, MR remain the stars this week...APH had a war just under $69 late in the day, finished higher so the war looks to be won as it comes to $70. We've dwindled down the BVX again, the power was not there for a further break. GROW came back on the trading block today, joining IAAC...a DJIM reunion of sorts.

Charts updated for fridays trading day at BT Charts


DJIM hold/hit list #11......MOBO hiccups the MOMO..

How convenient that earth shattering news was!...The market with 2 strikes against it yesterday....GDP and TGIF having little effect on the market, and then conveniently and timely GS decides to rile up the market with a blackberry file from an analyst whooping it up on a Friday night in Taipei with 'old news'....Did this tech rally really miss the fact that Vista delay troubles and 8 million Sony crisp and toasty batteries might dampen 4th Q holiday orders/sales and that corporations would take their sweet time incorporating Vista into '07.  Is it breaking news that many would go for something else this holiday season instead of a new MOBO' system?  Well...with a sensitive market after GDP#, profit taking Friday and with the market needing a rest period, it didn't take much to get the profit taking ball rolling without giving much thought. Is this really anything the market didn't know about or expect? . We wonder who was buying the selling on the 'demand has fallen off quickly in October" headline?.  You also have to wonder about a market that takes 'YUCK' GDP so lightly, yet gets shaken on MOBO growth prospects/shipment declines for October.   The market looks like it wants go higher into the last quarter to us, the GDP short term reaction helped this idea....but of course we need a healthy pullback ...consolidation, maybe this is it. The charts below show the lines in the sand for a pullback and/or some more. The SP on the upper line, the recent break outs of the indecies, the possibility of the Dow transports getting closer to highs which could be the last straw if it breaks out for those thinking this market will implode in 2006. Our gig at DJIM is not to get into the scenarios, there is enough info and talking heads giving their take. We don't want get into this ever on DJIM and we wouldn't expect many to ever agree with us or would we care if they didn't... so we don't.  We are traders first and as we always say....we will trade accordingly to the action we see. Yesterday, it was taking some off as we thought the GDP was enough to cause a needed pullback, the late tech action told us to sell but there were a few pieces we were still buying late in the day..   There are a few techs in the DJIM bunch..

TRT saw the brunt of the GS note. In our notes, we have been cautious on the TRT action pointing to the recent move without volume and waiting for the insiders to stop the selling. We talked off wanting a pullback to add before an attempt at the highs. Fridays was a little extreme to add, we will wait to see if the insiders helped the cause.

We added some DIVX again on the late day dip, we still think there will be some action like in RVBD the day of earnings before the release.

UCTT seemed to have survived the GS note and even closed higher than the much talked about pricing of the 1.8 mln share exchange.  Not bad action considering this is a semi with a cloud over it from that large transaction for some.

APH was looking so sweet as it broke the highs and toyed in the $70's  Then it got taken down with the rest. As we've said before, we expect this one to be on DJIM for a while.

RIMM..DJIM's after hours pick up at $99+ on earnings day had a nice breakout this week. We noted to look for one at $114 early on. TD research gave it a glowing report with another tgt in mid $100's on Friday. Our goal is still the 25% gain which is DJIM's benchmark we strive for in our buys to join the wall on our DJ Journal Archives page.

MR had a terrific week after driving us nuts for about a month. Last friday, we focused on the MR move and what it might bring the following week. Seems the break out move caught on as we went from low 17's to 19's. At this point we would like it to pullback closer to 9ema for another move into it. The volume dropped off thur/fri and so did our position. We will keep watching this closely and hopefully catch another move up.

ACOR is just a marvel to watch, it has bored the momo traders yet they all wait and watch for a move(including us;). This is now a hold long term for many as it has churned here in the 17 range endlessly. Are 3 or 4 firms wrong with the $24-25 targets on ACOR, we don't think so and patiently wait for any news to spark it again.

BTJ, the possibility we spoke of Wednesday for a late momo run into IBD didn't play out. The positive of this is the stock is becoming more attractive off the pullback after stellar earnings will move heavy into BTJ on such sector moves but this will only occur with a volume push, so far BTJ is not trading like the BTJ we know...the volume is not there but we still bought some into the close as it closed in on the 9ema(15.80) level. The August run we followed had BTJ reach 9ema on day 6 (including earnings day) and then it continued forward.... Friday was day 4 this time around.

Some of the best trading opportunities this past week was from the stocks mentioned in the Extended trading thread in Market Chat...

FTK, ZIGO, CTCI and a few others on consecutive days.  We expect this to continue as the small caps begin to roll out their numbers. As the EPS small cap show and tell begins, we will still keep the charts refreshed for some DJIM stocks we have little or no shares of now. We don't expect these to test highs until EPS is out or some news propels them to break highs. This includes CETV, CPY.   On Thursday,  we said we dwindled BVX (DJIM since low 7's).. this follows DGIT (low 10's). BVX seems to be only for the chart players now, another play might be formed with those 3 last daily sticks, DJIM needs another catalyst to move back in. Both have been profitable DJIM plays but we see more exciting things coming up with a fresh earnings season. Like all DJIM listed stocks these will be watched for a possibe entry. IAAC,CTCM,GROW continue to provide nice intraday moves for traders.




DJIM hold/hit list #13

Back in October, we stated that November is seasonally a strong quarter for small caps.     Near the end of October, we stated that we just could not wait till the small cap earning season to start.    Well, we aren't disappointed, so far.       Maybe  it seems that all we had to do is to come back from a 8 month vacation and trade from November till February.    Now that would just be too easy plus we could have missed all the DJIM action from late August..just go to the Journal Archive.  The truth is, without the hard grind of the summer, without going through the emotional roller coaster with the market from the first trading day of the year, none of us would stay as focused, or sharp when the time mattered the most.     Well, here we are now.   We have had literally a stream of awesome small cap action last few days and we are trying our best to make the most out of it.    It means all out for us.    Folks, if you hadn't committed much time, energy, capital or effort into the market last few days, we'd say you are gonna be sorry a few months down the road.     Here are some plays we really like that showed up last little while...

ATNI, this is definitely not a flashy stock like some of the other heavy hitters.    It has very good earnings and it moves in stealth mode.   Before you know it, this thing can move 20% without making any kind of headline.    It broke out on Friday and we are keeping a close eye on this one. We added back. Friday looked like the day it would break all those candle wicks on the daily.

GMKT, this stock had a very powerful move on its earning day and it smelled lots of institutions stepping in to bid it up.    A very sexy business and a dominant player in its area and with the holiday coming up, we think this one is gonna be in play for a while.

DLB, wow what a report this one had.   Ok, this isn't exactly a small cap but man you gotta give those guys a thumb up on their execution.   It took out multi year high, literally in one day of trading.    Now it may not give you another 33% gain day anymore but we bet it caught lots of people's attention on Friday.

Reports Q4 (Sep) earnings of $0.22 per share, $0.11 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.11; revenues rose 29.4% year/year to $102.1 mln vs the $83.8 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for FY07, sees EPS of $0.83-0.92 vs. $0.75 consensus; sees FY07 revs of $420-450 mln vs. $405.67 mln consensus.

MEK, it made it to IBD #5.   How will trade from now on?   We think it could trade with the group but with a better beta action.   Other plays we also consider in the same genre include BTJ ALY FTK. 

TRT, ah ha!    This one is not an unfamiliar name, far from it.     The latest quarter simply confirms the status of the stock, it's not going to be a micro cap anymore.   Bring it on Zeff boy!.  Nothing new to say, just scroll down our pages or go to the archives to get your TRT fill.

EDU, didn't we say this one could make some easy money?  Lol  Ok, nothing is easy in this business.   What this stock did the last few days, is simply giving back to all the believers and followers of DJIM site. Same as TRT, you can find your fill of EDU write ups as it seemingly has been with us since day one.....3 rides now!..Recycle, recycle we say. If EDU doesn't cut it one day....MR has picked up the slack and vice versa.  Late this week MR hit a new high 20.57. DJIM's Super Ninja's are sure to provide more excitement.

FSYS, this play is new and we think it can get some legs out of its report. We put an eye out on it early Friday morning in MC, its action perked up and we entered.Reported Q3 EPS of $0.22 vs -$0.63 in 3Q05; (est.$0.13c), revs rose 13% YoY to $55.4 mln vs.44.1 mln est. Co' raised 2006 rev guidance to at least $210 mln, up from previous guidance of $200 mln.  This alternate fuel segment needs some new trading blood, maybe Fuel Systems Solutions will be it.

AAON, we introduced this earning gem Wednesday morning. Not only did it take out the $25 we spoke of, it took on $26 Friday. Definitely, a A-Team member!

GLDN, we also introduced back some Russian blood with this Telecom/Internet provider. Volume has really picked over October and into early November with its earning release. 35% revenue growth, 40% net income YOY, 16% revenue, 7% net sequential growth.

RIMM, yep...we raised the RIMM flag as it became the 11th 25+% move in 12 weeks of DJIM. The action Thursday left it with a little toppy action. Every other day they seem to have a need to strike a blow into RIMM, Friday it was MOT's deal with Good Tech. This has been going on endlessly and RIMM just keeps making new highs. Nothing is wrong with RIMM for those wanting to play it out further, but we feel there are better chances of a finding another 25% move elsewhere...faster. We'll still keep a close eye on it as it's in the Constitution of Canada to do so;)

EFUT, is one we are trading as the Yahoo's are all over it. Definitely not for those that plan to have many bathroom breaks during the day.

It was just on Halloween that we took a cautious stance as many of the DJIM stocks felt toppy, by the close of Friday November 3rd we started to use up the cash with 6 or 7 buys. The names are changing, growing fast and furious during the past week. Buy the strength and don't sit on the UCTT's that are clearly lagging the uptrend.  Honestly, what are you waiting for?  You also have plenty of oil/energy names to rotate in and out of depending on the oil picture. If you have your DJIM list close by and have created a watchlist/buy list of these stocks, last week was a very fruitful one.  For more DJIM names read the commentary of the past week plus glance over the charts for ideas to trade.

Jon/ Demi