Post Fed Day

Normally, or many times in the past, the "Post Fed Day" has not always been kind to the market.   This time the market definitely had a change of heart.    When it comes to DJIM stocks, we actually had a much better afternoon than in the morning.   Many of the stocks we are familiar with just simply strengthened up toward the end and some of them had pretty good closing actually.   We'll pick out a few and highlight them...

CCF, perhaps this one is the most surprising one out of the bunch.   It was very ironic that only a couple of days ago that we were worried about its above volume sell off.   Again, we pointed out that we'd give it a couple of days to let it show us which way it wants to lean.   Volume today isn't spectacular but we think it has potential.   We added back some shrs today and no doubt also contributed to some of the rise today.   Nonetheless a new closing high is a new closing high.    What this does is that it actually puts this one back to our top watchlist and we'll again be adding aggressively.   The conclusion is, let the stock show you how strong it is before making up your mind of adding/chasing.   There's no need to be overly optimistic on "the best play" if the action seems uncertain.   If uncertainty occurs, reduce position and sit on the sideline with a little exposure.   Once the danger is over and the trend is clear, then jump back in.    Actually, this is more like the strategy for surviving in the jungle. lol   But in all honesty, trading the market is like surviving in the jungle.  There's really nobody else to look after you other than yourself.   Making kills (plays) just don't come easy when you got so much competition out there.

MFW, it's been up three days in a row now since our alerts on it Monday and of course the little alarm might tick off for a possible pause in this latest runup.    It doesn't mean that we have to go all out and sell it out.   Just be prepared for reversal and when it happens, don't be hesitant to reduce.  Recently after our initial buy in, MFW provided one quick trip down and that has turned out to be one of the best trades recently for us adding in the $26's.

SILC, ok so this one sat there for a couple of days and today broke out on pretty good volume.  There's not much to say other than the fact we added some toward the end.   Why at the end you ask?    If a breakout does not hold till the end, then it may be a fake one and we simply hate any kind of fake break outs.

HRBN, what to expect tomorrow?   Ummm, there's a chance it may follow through and start some momentum.   We are keeping our fingers crossed and if there's any sign of momentum picking up, we'd be adding aggressively.   We are watching it very closely.

TGX, time to let some go today.   We all had a chance after alert at $4, 20+% in 2 days is just too good to ignore.    We reduced most and looking to add on pullbacks.  BT noted in forum some technical analysis on it today.

A note on tech earnings on the Nasdaq, a definite theme has developed that started with AAPL, a few names early this week and then GOOG today.  You can put SWIR in this bunch of sell offs off excellent results.  Last night, we talked of the slows action in AH in the 15's and up only 10% on SWIR..."Maybe we should listen to the CC to find out why this didn't trade higher, but instead we'll let the action in the morning dictate what we do".  The action early showed SWIR had no chance and why.  Simply these techs are selling off the stellar earning news.   As we always say and said last night, wait for the market to dictate what you should do on a earning reaction.  If you do take a position early make sure its a starter, something you can rid of without much of a loss quickly.   At this point, we are carrying between 10-15 positions on any given day and blowing out a small starter position as in SWIR from AH is nothing when you have positive action in so many DJIM stocks.  Cut the laggards and those behaving badly.  If you are one to carry 2-3 positions at a time, you definitely should not be going large into earnings plays until the market shows you what it thinks.   It tells you pretty fast as with GOOG and SWIR last night and today.  We are looking at DLB's earning with all this in mind tomorrow despite how attractive it looked on paper first.

Other stocks showing strength, some more than others.. include ENR ABM GLDN VARI CNS OEH NWK FSYS ALB CENX TRCR ... so most of them are eps plays and all of them you've seen at DJIM over the past 5 months.

Need Direction...

Yes, that's how we feel about this market generally.   Naz has basically been stuck between 2400 and 2480 since last November and neither break outs nor breakdowns have yielded any significant results.    Ok, we at DJIM normally do not talk about the overall market trend much but we feel the current state of the market may explain some of the lackluster movers out there.   Will CSCO help out?, the numbers might be there but will the Naz use it to go for a ride?.   Maybe it was too much to burden AAPL and GOOG with;).   Sure, there are trading opportunities and some strong individual strong performers, but it'd definitely broaden the movement if the market is actually on a steady uptrend.    At this moment, we are still not committing most of our cash into work.    Right now, it doesn't feel as if we need to go all in in a big way, but rather, we are trading sporadic opportunities here and there.    As more good earning play come out, we are sure that we'd get more action but it'd be nice if this market gives us an excuse to go big and go all in.    We are definitely not there yet but we feel if a powerful move comes up, we'd be quick to get into the action quickly.   Early and most of the day an overall weaker bias but early gains in DJIM names provided an opportunity to take some gains,  primarily in CCF, MFW over $36.  CCF is just a little too jumpy right now, we'd like to see a close over $33 and away from the 9ema.

USAP, this one is definitely a hit so far.   The lack of volatility and strong action makes this one stands out from the rest of the earning play crowd.   We added some today on the 3 day breakout, but will watch the highs coming up carefully.

GLDN, this one pulled a typical sleepy move when nobody is watching but hopefully you were since Thursdays alert    This one sure took a while to get to this point.   But we can all agree that it's been a nice hold so far during the past couple of months.

VARI,  MLynch started coverage again with a buy rating and stock notched another new closing high here.   We favour these kind of plays here b/c of the institutional support and the liquidity it provides us.

AVZA/SILC, these cheapies didn't do much of anything today, but more importantly, they aren't giving back much either.   The longer they can hold and flatten out, the more likely the next movment will be up.  Only so far these techs will go without a little help from the big boyz.

CSCO who?

CSCO who?...Paulson who?....Bernanke who?....seemingly this is what the DJIM core and secondary holds kept saying all day.  Absolutely...no consideration or respect from DJIM stocks to the rest of the boring market or its talking players or what is coming AH's.  What could we possibly say tonight, except wow and laugh a bit.   The funny thing .. this is not first time we have seen this divergence between DJIM stocks and the weaker bias in the market.   If or better when the time comes that we come down to a few positions or go to mostly cash,  you will recall these days and ask what was I doing wrong?.  Basically, if you're not capitalizing on these moves it is a missed opportunity and you've simply been in the wrong stocks.   It's easy to blame the market instead of yourself!.   The interesting thing is these are not one day wonders,  these are for the most part continuation of moves in new DJIM stocks from 2007 and some late 2006.  

Let's take USAP and another new high attained today..it's only been wined and dined here from our first buy in high $36's....we don't expect all to make 30% so far in '07 on it,  but surely you have enjoyed more than your share of points on it...Why else are we all here?..Earning gems..NO?.   We're not here to wait on double bottoms, we prefer to toast a double shot of something at the end of the day after discovering a earning play early and hopefully sticking to it as it is discovered by your neighbour...and if you don't like neighbour there is nothing like selling it to him or her at the top!

Why do we keep an active chart list even when we sell most of a position...Example...VTRU

VTRU that we sold off most last week ( also an earning play from $43's)..simply, you take your points, your profits and watch list after...why?...so you let it consolidate a bit and then try to catch another move...WOW..we said it was looking better at low 47's in the Forum...minutes late this one really broke out and was nearing $49 end of day with volume.

CNS...little reaction after stellar earning but we held it on close watch looking for a turn.  It came last week and noted our buy in...4-5 pts since including another alert this week. You gotta love the last 4 day sticks on this stock!.

CCF MFW, we mentioned we were selling some of these off yesterday. Today was just an opportunity to rid of some more at higher prices or as in MFW case trade some.  After all was done, we probably came out with a bit more MFW than we had yesterday at the close.  We are not arguing with these going higher,  but we have to realistic especially in a market showing a weaker bias all day with stocks covered here from 27's (CCF) and MFW ($28). These are 20-30% moves just in 2007. 

Speaking of selling, GLDN hit the 57's today without noticing where its' trading..the flat NAZ!.  Besides the run from the high 30's here, this was alerted last week at $53  and yes we took some of the short term profits.  If you've kept track of this stock, you know this has been a great pick up on any pullback, especially to the 9ema.  We've kept enough to prove this is our favorite Russian telco stock.  Speaking of closely followed holds from last Q,  let's not forget the ABM making new highs..this is as steady as they come from $21's for DJIM readers.

Not to be out done, we had one (AVZA) from our bleachers, the cheap seats come through in a nice way.  If you didn't catch the first alert at the open the other day, hopefully you moved on Monday's.   Plenty of opp to add at $6ish to grab part of this move.  The volume wasn't spectacular but hopefully the NCH brings in some more money overnight.  SILC, TRCR just fine as well today.

Considering, DJIM stocks have done these runs in '07 without the NAZ's help,  we'll put our pom poms down tonight and let the CSCO cheerleaders pave the way..Let there be many!...The ones with AAPL and GOOG on their sweaters had little bounce in their cheer and definitely no kick!.  Some suggested reading in our archive as to the possibilities for tomorrow.  Same ole?.  We'll be cautious and take any bump for profits most likely.

http://djmarkets.squarespace.com/journal/2006/11/9/cscodisco.html

Still a victory...

Even though the score is not showing up on our watchlist, you just couldn't help feeling that the positive vibe from the overall market will eventually spill over to your stocks, at some point.    So maybe not today!   There's still tomorrow and whole earning season ahead of us.   The strength among the DJIM stock is fairly narrow today with a few outstanding ones.   Lets get to them now...

JSDA, IBD writeup + 1234 set, 9ema + NCH....  oh my this just sounds so corny. lol    Well, many of the stocks we come to known in the past often felt that way too.    With corniness comes famaliarity, and that's a good thing to us traders.    We liked this setup alot and added throughout the day, and closing is nothing short of spectacular.    Let's just keep our fingers crossed for some good action tomorrow and beyond.  THE AH action has continued to over 26.

TNH, we told you this a volatile one. Today it was almost 6% volatile ' UP' and a NCH off the 9ema it has held the previous days.  As a trader you have to love stocks that give you 4-5pts in a day and that is why we have this one up on our play list.

SILC, this one caught our attention late as it bounced off 9 ema earlier and raced toward a new high.   We added a little toward the end and are looking for follow through tomorrow. As long as SILC keeps getting design wins this one will keep getting some attention.

AMAG, action was not overwhelming premarket and we started to see some sell on the news.  We bought some back near the close as it held 70 today quite well.  Jefferies came out with a $99 to go with DeutBanks $100 price target.  We'll see what tomorrow brings before taking more action.  Considering there was only a $2.95 spread on 1.8mln shares for a small float stock...this could coil up for a nice pop.

Dow 13K?

Who really cares?   However, the CNBC show has to go on and "intelligent" topic has to be discussed in order to attract viewership.   In all honesty, those who trade stocks for a living don't really have much of a choice but having this CNBC on in case we miss some important headline.   Ok, enough rant here!      Market has once gain showed its inability to march forward and much of the action came from the smallcap land.  With a 91bln bank deal overseas leading the usual Monday activity, we expected more follow through today.  This is a little bit early to talk about but we are about a few weeks away when the seasonality factor kicks in.    Sell in May and go Away!    Ok, so for those members who have billions of dollars at stake, don't blame us that we didn't warn you.  lol   For the rest of us, life goes on and we will adjust to whatever the market environment when changes happen.  There are a few interesting setups today and we are going to go through each one of them....

KRSL,  this one gave us a very profitable trade a couple of months ago and we never take it off our watchlist.  It merely sits in the back of the class until it decides to stand up one day ann makes itself  noticed.    We noticed it earlier today off the news that the co. received a contract(MOU) from UTX.   This is essentially the first good news we've heard from the co. since it reported its last earning.    We'll take it.  It's good to know they will continue to be busy going forward.  The reasons for a move has been summed up in the alert, so we are not going to repeat here.   One thing we have to point out that this one trades very thinly and it can go up as quickly as it can go down.    We got in the $23s and will act accordingly.    Chasing blindly without a plan is definitely not a good idea with a stock like this one.

TRCR, this one reported earning after the close and essentially this is the best quarter for this co.   It beat year over year, also up nicely sequentially.   This one has had pretty steady action since the last report so there's a good chance that it will continue the same pattern.   Although there's no exact telling how the stock will behave tomorrow but based on the AH action, making a new high is not out of the cards for this one soon.  We might actually keep an ear on the CC late morning, or will just watch the action at that time to possibly make another move. 

SILC,  we are going to monitor this one really closely tomorrow because there's potentially a chance for this one to break out.    We believe this is also due to the pre-earning run and eps date is 25th of this month.  Hey, we got one from DXPE Friday and today from USAP, so why not the SILC'ster!

There have been quite a few names that made some nice moves today..SYNL MTOX CYNO USAP. A few of them are the quiet types which include TNH GLDN SCHN GMRK ROS.  We are glad that there's enough action out there despite the weakness from the major indices.

...lets's see what the chips can bring tomorrow off a couple of good reports AH

...streaky

It just happens that writing a Journal keeps us in line to our methodology's of trading. We all need reminders. It is very easy to stray from your niche or your usual ways....you might see a headline or hear a tip from another or two that makes you want to jump in and see what all the ruckus is about.  At the end all that usually does is tie up cash for most and not allow one to get back into a niche play as soon as they would like or at all. This brings us to what we've been prepping ourselves for and hopefully you.   Simply... that is having cash on hand to chase the DJIM niche, earning plays for opening day(s) and not be stuck in laggards that have 'watching paint dry' action.  So far the action is hardly disappointing as we've hit another streak this month with SYNL KRSL TRCR..back to back to back.  One more today and we'll be the Red Sox from the other day!. This is prime example of having money on hand to be able to go hard after a few selective plays,  especially when all the stars line up and you having stellar earning and/or chart to go with it and momentum flow.  Our full attention has been on these 3 stocks but now or even yesterday, one should never forget to do what is right!.   That is to take profits, some or all depending on the days, speed of the play.  All that means is a TRCR was still lased up at the close, while a SYNL KRSL have gone up as much as 5 and 3 dollars from our alerts in a few days. So, yes we have been dwindling down our positions in SYNL, KRSL in a orderly manner.  Early this month, we were riding the JSDA,TSL,UXG etc train.  Our stop came and we got off expecting new plays to emerge.  We wave goodbye and say see ya' later. This week we have new plays and need to say see ya' later sooner than later after the gains produced by them.   Simply, as good as having money ready for EPS season, it is vital you free up cash during earning season to go after the next batch of plays or just one dazzling play.   We are just getting started with small-micro cap announcements, so don't forget the first train is the one you want to be on for the best profits.  The first leg is usually the fastest and most profitable!.  You can catch a connecting train later and have the same seat as before by recycling a play.  "TURNOVER", is the key now.  Use a play, but don't abuse it.  This could mean if we get $14, give or take a few dimes from our first buys AH $11.40's  Monday on TRCR...we would be following the same methodology described above....

A few things...

DXPE and its results.....very tough comps to beat for it this Q. Still it did it,  but probably not enough to get the crowd wiled up. We will watch the reaction and go from there.

RVBD, we might prefer this over DXPE, $33's might have some congestion so we will see how it plays it out.($32now). We will play accordingly if we see it has potential to smash that level or if it does.

SILC, we said this might be number 3 after DXPE,USAP for a pre-earnings run and it didn't disappoint yesterday breaking out to 24.70's. We traded the move and now wait for its call this morning to maybe get in again.

TRT, a few can't get over this one.lol..we put it up on watch the other night and it produced a nice return yesterday for some here (10%). At this point, we prefer to wait on there sneaky mid day possible earning release to possibly play.

MFW GLDN BW RCCC USAT TNH MTOX ATR, maybe a few others round out what we are watching or playing in smaller sizes.