Breakout action vs. Pullback action

We have touched on this subject many times on this site and older forums.     Today is a typical example of chasing the breakout action.  Here's a trading idea for some of you.   On a strong index day when a lot of things are up, you definitely want to concentrate on the "GREEN" stuff to participate in the rally of performers rather than to anticipate the recovery of the "RED" stuff.   Because when you are debating whether to add on a pullback, there'd be lots of opportunity passing you by with strong gains, especially on a good index day.   When the index is not doing much or down just slightly, that's when you look at pull backs more assuming there isn't that many "strong green" stocks to play.   Always prioritize your trading list and go with the strong beta first.    Just because you bought the stock couple of days ago and it isn't doing much for you doesn't mean that you can't cut it lose and go into something else.  We did that with OSIR today, we're not going to give up what we earned the last couple of days and blow a call from between 25's to 28's.    It's definitely easier to play break outs than to play pull-back.    The strategy is also dependent of your portfolio size as well.   We knew a guru who would hold 200+ positions on a day like today.   For most of us that would just be impossible to manage.   The point is, if you have a big account, you can afford to hold many positions and even consider buying on pull-backs.  If you have a small account, consider going with the stocks with the best action on a daily basis.   There will be a lot of trading for you but unfortunately it's part of our strategy and part of the game we play.   When a stock drops below 9 ema, it simply looks less attractive to us, pullback or not.   When you have so many stocks breaking out, the last thing we want to be doing is to be stuck on a consolidation play and "hoping" it'll breakout.   When it does breakout, we'd be there.     Our mentality is that we participate a run, but we don't anticipate one.   Also again, before we are moderators and writers of this site, we are traders.   We spend most of the time trading for our own accounts and writing-updates for this site is just an extension of what we do.    Of course, our priority is to write and alert/update on the stocks we think that are showing the best action(opportunity) for the day.  Whats there to talk about SNCR or AAPL today?.  The fun was had and now take the consequences of a stock going 14's to 17.50 in less than a full trading day or one going mid 80's to high 90's the next day.   Going through the entire list of DJIM watchlist every day may need full time attention.  Use the charts to help paint a picture.  Maybe we can do a weekly recap on some special requests on some of the stocks we seem to have missed..so far we have not heard back from those public requests..if we don't know the stocks, we can't help.   Now onto some today's movers....

VOL, this one probably overwhelmed the most optimistic traders given its 3 day action.   Again, we are not saying today is the end of this run-ups but it does feel a little tired at this point.  As far as trading tactics, there was a question and answer in the forum yesterday.  In the example you can see how you can take profits around 60 and then buy the strong close which leads to another 3-4 points today. You sold the 51-59's run to lock in partial profits, then buy maybe the same 1/4 back into the strong close and walk away with another 3-4pts today on the full lot you played.  This is what we did reducing our exposure and now are in a wait and see mode with a very slim position.  In fact, how can you not resist taking some profit at this point?..

CCOI, This one has institutional prints all over it today and you can see the large number of blocks traded from its time and sales. It wasn't over at $ 19. Plenty of people buying a stock up $1.50 at $19 early, these traders are not contemplating a pull back, they are buying a ticket on a train!.   Same goes for SNCR yesterday.   The first thought of a successful trader/investor cannot be when and where is the pullback going to be.

MFW, it seemed as little as two days ago there were concerns of chasing this stock in the 26s or 28s.   Well we had a dip and dip was quickly bought on that day.   What followed is today's advance and if you blink, you'd missed it. The pullback you saw the other day off a NCH is one of a few you should consider. You know its a hot stock and a pullback is extreme.  Thats called opportunity. A .50 cent pullback on a 20 buck stock is not a pullback in our book, it's life..life of a stock.

EDU, now out of all of the China based(quality) stocks, we like this one the best today and yesterday.   See, sometimes we don't have to predict, we just let the stock show us the path.   This is actually a new closing high and we believe it's ready to challenge its all time high. Instead of looking for a pullback what has been happening for months is we trade a EDU for a MR and back and forth with HMIN. They take turns it seems and with these names there is no need to wait for a pull back. A move comes and that's when you buy back.

ABM, it sure tried to breakout today and it closed about mid way between the day high and day low.   At this point, we think this is the right direction and momentum is definitely on the upside.

HLYS, we alerted this one late in the day only because this one has had a history of intraday fake break-outs.   Hopefully, and keep our fingers crossed, that this one may get some kind of follow through after today's near day high close.

GLDN, was a rocket again as it climbs with some news.  MTRX is a piece of work while this oil massacre continues, just one nice oil day should pop this higher.

PTT from premarket is a 'trade' like NWK was. If the flow keeps on we'll be there, otherwise we have no love for keeping this long.

We better get ready...

Before you know it,  half of the companies out there may have reported their earnings already.  The flow is about to start. Frankly, we feel that this mkt needs to kick a gear higher to really start this earning season.   What we mean is that we want to see more volume and more volatility!    Good earnings get bid up and bad earnings get dumped kind of volatility.    When things are chaotic, there's always opportunity.    We don't want to speculate which sector or individual company is going to shine this quarter, but we have to keep a sharp eye out for outstanding report.    

Today's action from DJIM land is surprisingly quite good given the weakness in technology sector.     Of course, we are only concerned about individual action here and we'll let the talking heads discuss the theoretical side of things.    Most of the DJIM stocks enjoyed some very nice gains and here is a run down..

MFW, financial companies, especially the little ones like this definitely can trade on their own.  Come looking back, an entry point at $28 is not that bad of a deal.    We've been actively trading this one last couple of days .

AMK, as mentioned last night, we thought this had the best early chance this week alon,g with MR.  It didn't disappoint with a nice day.

MR, so it looked like it had a seller or two mid way through the day as it reached highs.  This one had above average volume today and we'd be watching it closely next couple of days to see if it has the juice to take out the old high and start a new leg.

HMIN, it looked like it almost had some steam to break out but only to come back some in the afternoon.    It's having a pretty stubborn consolidation so far.    Again, we are not eager to chase potential breakout but once it gets some push under some heavy volume, we'd chase and alert everyone at the same time.

GLDN, new closing high, there's not much else to be said about this one.   In fact, this is definitely the best Russian stock on our list right now.

CCF, slow down Jose.   To be honest, we actually aren't comfortable for it to trade into the $32s this early.  It was here for all high 27's/low 28's to snap up last trading afternoon.  We definitely want to see some base building here.   Let everyone catch some breath and accumulate some position.

AXR, though we did not actively participate in this most recent run-up, this one should always be on anyone's top trading list and its good readers have not forgotten this $90's DJIM.  Its been up in charts all along, so there's really no excuse to at least have admired this move..lol.   Honestly, it's not easy to chase a 30 pt move and we just have to take it as is.  If you played some, congrats to you but if not, no big deal as opportunities will come.   It is a little stretched at his point so we aren't looking to do anything here.

Some other stocks on our list that closed well include, GRC OPTM HRT OMRI.    One last note on EDU and future earnings, earning dates are to be played, not to be held through.  We didn't say anything cause there was nothing impressive about the report. Last report which was sensational sold off, so this one is no surprise.  Still, it's pretty good, it''s just the market doesn't care.  CHDX, this one was in play a month or two ago and today it broke out apparently on good volume.   Keep an eye on this one for potential follow through or not, it's not the most consistent day to day performer.  Another is a big DJIM flyer from last quarter, CETV which put in a NCH today on a gap. Not sure what the beef is here today! . Good stocks just grind it out over time and before you know it...boom...a NCH

cheers,

NDX..the market vs. DJIM

Since the MLK holiday, we have seen the NDX go from 1847 to a touch of 1771 today.   Despite this treacherous ride, the heavily followed DJIM stocks have shown not only resiliency but power to go forward.  This divergence with the market only escalated today with 7 DJIM names hitting a NCH and some even had higher highs intraday.  They include USAP CFF VNDA MTRX MBT VIP AMK.   If this was a public space we could probably find something to say on these tonight, but considering it's not...we won't bore you more and hopefully find you in a good mood following some of these recent moves.   If anything use tonight to read back the recent Journals, the alerts to see how this all came to be and the strategy involved in adding/subtracting these positions.   Also, if the market continues to slide, this divergence with DJIM stocks won't last forever and you should be prepared with an exit strategy.  A look over on the charts should help you create a line of support, every stock is different in respect to floats, volumes and should not be treated equally.  A CFF is not a VIP, a AMK is not a VNDA, so some need more flexibility than the other on your part.  The line of support could be a recent breakout price, to some it might be just leaving if the stock drops below the previous open, low or high.  It all depends on the individuals entry price, their time frame, how much they want to pocket etc.  Remember this is just the start of earning season and new opp's are coming up almost daily, so don't get a crush on a stock that turns on you or is lagging.  We've just started and a MTRX CCF USAP have already proved to be quality DJIM earning plays...there will be more!!. Anyways...just a few things

MTRX!!...finally!!...who came out with earning today, MTRX or BTJ?..lol.  Take away the gap in BTJ and MTRX was the better trade to add to today.  Guess BTJ EPS, the Oil spurt and MTRX getting to 17.30's area( see the 60min) all had the makings of the stars lining up for MTRX.  Considering, we've been complimenting this stocks strength through the massacre of the oils since its earnings...todays "interesting" point in alerts was a potential bust out in the making and a holder of MTRX should have been adding to their position once it was clear.  As far as BTJ, the earning is stellar and by sounds of it the growth is to continue in the next Q's...unfortunately the action was quite boring considering all the positives in this secl.  Our concentration turned to MTRX early and BTJ never really gave reason to add just yet.

The point of the alerts/ updates is to catch a potential move.  It could be the start of a hold or just a trade once in.  Lately..all the big moves have originated from that page...CFF USAP, VNDA and the Russian telcos, MBT,VIP yesterday.  The important thing to see in respect to these moves is in many of the moves buying on the next weakness has been very profitable.  So, it's not about the chase, wait for some confirmation, you need to see some momentum.    Also,  ROS, GLDN waited till today to get on MBT, VIP's back.

ENR, we added a bit today in the afternoon.  Prud added 6% to its eps estimate for '07 late in the day. Energizer beats by $0.20, beats on revs (ENR) 75.60 :Reports Q1 (Dec) earnings of $2.12 per share, $0.20 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $1.92; revenues rose 8.7% year/year to $959.2 mln vs the $921.4 mln consensus.  We've seen this bunny hop, so we're not worried about getting at these levels. 

CHDX,  just mentioned this one in the Journal last Tuesday as one to watch.  "CHDX, this one was in play a month or two ago and today it broke out apparently on good volume.   Keep an eye on this one for potential follow through or not, it's not the most consistent day to day performer".   Today, it had another big day. The question...can it do two positive days in a row without the usual give up.   We think this might be the start of some attention into ISRG's eps on Feb. 1st,  if ISRG continues to act as if a good report might be in the cards.

EBS,  hanging in nicely after a couple of big days.

Need Direction...

Yes, that's how we feel about this market generally.   Naz has basically been stuck between 2400 and 2480 since last November and neither break outs nor breakdowns have yielded any significant results.    Ok, we at DJIM normally do not talk about the overall market trend much but we feel the current state of the market may explain some of the lackluster movers out there.   Will CSCO help out?, the numbers might be there but will the Naz use it to go for a ride?.   Maybe it was too much to burden AAPL and GOOG with;).   Sure, there are trading opportunities and some strong individual strong performers, but it'd definitely broaden the movement if the market is actually on a steady uptrend.    At this moment, we are still not committing most of our cash into work.    Right now, it doesn't feel as if we need to go all in in a big way, but rather, we are trading sporadic opportunities here and there.    As more good earning play come out, we are sure that we'd get more action but it'd be nice if this market gives us an excuse to go big and go all in.    We are definitely not there yet but we feel if a powerful move comes up, we'd be quick to get into the action quickly.   Early and most of the day an overall weaker bias but early gains in DJIM names provided an opportunity to take some gains,  primarily in CCF, MFW over $36.  CCF is just a little too jumpy right now, we'd like to see a close over $33 and away from the 9ema.

USAP, this one is definitely a hit so far.   The lack of volatility and strong action makes this one stands out from the rest of the earning play crowd.   We added some today on the 3 day breakout, but will watch the highs coming up carefully.

GLDN, this one pulled a typical sleepy move when nobody is watching but hopefully you were since Thursdays alert    This one sure took a while to get to this point.   But we can all agree that it's been a nice hold so far during the past couple of months.

VARI,  MLynch started coverage again with a buy rating and stock notched another new closing high here.   We favour these kind of plays here b/c of the institutional support and the liquidity it provides us.

AVZA/SILC, these cheapies didn't do much of anything today, but more importantly, they aren't giving back much either.   The longer they can hold and flatten out, the more likely the next movment will be up.  Only so far these techs will go without a little help from the big boyz.

CSCO who?

CSCO who?...Paulson who?....Bernanke who?....seemingly this is what the DJIM core and secondary holds kept saying all day.  Absolutely...no consideration or respect from DJIM stocks to the rest of the boring market or its talking players or what is coming AH's.  What could we possibly say tonight, except wow and laugh a bit.   The funny thing .. this is not first time we have seen this divergence between DJIM stocks and the weaker bias in the market.   If or better when the time comes that we come down to a few positions or go to mostly cash,  you will recall these days and ask what was I doing wrong?.  Basically, if you're not capitalizing on these moves it is a missed opportunity and you've simply been in the wrong stocks.   It's easy to blame the market instead of yourself!.   The interesting thing is these are not one day wonders,  these are for the most part continuation of moves in new DJIM stocks from 2007 and some late 2006.  

Let's take USAP and another new high attained today..it's only been wined and dined here from our first buy in high $36's....we don't expect all to make 30% so far in '07 on it,  but surely you have enjoyed more than your share of points on it...Why else are we all here?..Earning gems..NO?.   We're not here to wait on double bottoms, we prefer to toast a double shot of something at the end of the day after discovering a earning play early and hopefully sticking to it as it is discovered by your neighbour...and if you don't like neighbour there is nothing like selling it to him or her at the top!

Why do we keep an active chart list even when we sell most of a position...Example...VTRU

VTRU that we sold off most last week ( also an earning play from $43's)..simply, you take your points, your profits and watch list after...why?...so you let it consolidate a bit and then try to catch another move...WOW..we said it was looking better at low 47's in the Forum...minutes late this one really broke out and was nearing $49 end of day with volume.

CNS...little reaction after stellar earning but we held it on close watch looking for a turn.  It came last week and noted our buy in...4-5 pts since including another alert this week. You gotta love the last 4 day sticks on this stock!.

CCF MFW, we mentioned we were selling some of these off yesterday. Today was just an opportunity to rid of some more at higher prices or as in MFW case trade some.  After all was done, we probably came out with a bit more MFW than we had yesterday at the close.  We are not arguing with these going higher,  but we have to realistic especially in a market showing a weaker bias all day with stocks covered here from 27's (CCF) and MFW ($28). These are 20-30% moves just in 2007. 

Speaking of selling, GLDN hit the 57's today without noticing where its' trading..the flat NAZ!.  Besides the run from the high 30's here, this was alerted last week at $53  and yes we took some of the short term profits.  If you've kept track of this stock, you know this has been a great pick up on any pullback, especially to the 9ema.  We've kept enough to prove this is our favorite Russian telco stock.  Speaking of closely followed holds from last Q,  let's not forget the ABM making new highs..this is as steady as they come from $21's for DJIM readers.

Not to be out done, we had one (AVZA) from our bleachers, the cheap seats come through in a nice way.  If you didn't catch the first alert at the open the other day, hopefully you moved on Monday's.   Plenty of opp to add at $6ish to grab part of this move.  The volume wasn't spectacular but hopefully the NCH brings in some more money overnight.  SILC, TRCR just fine as well today.

Considering, DJIM stocks have done these runs in '07 without the NAZ's help,  we'll put our pom poms down tonight and let the CSCO cheerleaders pave the way..Let there be many!...The ones with AAPL and GOOG on their sweaters had little bounce in their cheer and definitely no kick!.  Some suggested reading in our archive as to the possibilities for tomorrow.  Same ole?.  We'll be cautious and take any bump for profits most likely.

http://djmarkets.squarespace.com/journal/2006/11/9/cscodisco.html

Resiliency continues...

We definitely had some resilient action going on today.   There's just not enough force to knock this market down, especially DJIM stocks.     In any case, we feel that a big market move is in the cards to get us out of this range bound trading environment.    At this point, it's almost pointless to speculate which way the market wants to go.   The only thing we can do is to be prepared one way or the other.   Fortunately the indecision of the market isn't deterring some movers from the small cap land.    Here are some few worth noting...

EML, what else are you gonna talk about first? lol    Again, this one followed through very nicely and we added some.    When it comes to an earning play like this one, it's very hard to say where the initial run-up will end and stop.    What we do know, however, is that the first pullback has to be bought aggressively.   How high can the initial run-up can go?   Your guess is as good as ours and we just have to take it day by day.

EDU HMIN,  in the case of EDU, yesterday in the forum we said around $40.50 this is being walked up to the offering price..Well..well,  the pricing for the secondary was announced tonight at $41.50/shr. For EDU, that's heck of a pricing.   We think the recent rise in price in conjunction with this pricing is the fact there's lots of institutional demand for this share offer.   This one is definitely interesting as 7 million shares at 40+ bucks isn't chump change for institutions.    Basically, we like this one again(what else is new), now that the cloud is lifted.    HMIN, simply broke out!   We bought this breakout as mentioned in the Forum after noting on it and we are looking for follow throughs.   Again, at this stage either take the points on moves and wait for a pullback or just stick through the tough days cause it just keeps going higher. You should know how it works by now.

VE,  this euro has been a nice steady performer from 68's and it's definitely not a small cap..lol. Tonight we noticed its been upgraded to a buy by Dresdner in Europe.  Looks like a $77 area target.  Analysts at Dresdner Kleinwort upgrade Veolia Environnement SA from "hold" to "buy." The target price has been raised from E48 to E60.  In a research note published this morning, the analysts mention that the company secured extra revenues of about €1.5 billion per annum from contract wins and acquisitions in 2006. Veolia Environnement is poised to increasingly benefit from its maturing contracts, the analysts believe. These contracts offer visibility into cash flows, which the company can reinvest to maintain above-average profit growth, Dresdner Kleinwort adds. Veolia Environnement has limited commodity exposure, the analysts add.

GLDN, talk about resiliency!!. Just incredible $4 dollar move from 9ema levels in one day.  If you're reading the Journal, Forum..looking at charts you are up to speed and probably making nice trades in this stock.  Believe it or not, this finished 4 cents off a NCH after yesterdays dismal day.  Will it bust out soon or will this become a visit to a potential wall?.  Give us a good Naz and this baby will go higher!

MFW, AVZA had nice days and finished right up there at the highs and we were adding to both along the way.

MDCI, last night we said the action was better than the earnings.  Today, we can only say the action was worse than the earning indicates.  A few things...yesterdays action, especially the close was probably toooo ' good and we probably should have exited the last 10 minutes when the stock had a final big stick up.   Unfortunately, the action by noon today showed we should leave for the time being.   Something might have been said at the CC after the close and for us it's always better to leave and ask questions later.  It also could have been a D grade, likely on valuation.  We don't care much for these as we've seen plenty of stocks shake these off quickly.  We think this one will, maybe as quickly as tomorrow on split day and we will aggressively buy back to add to our original starter.

CGX, we added today to this name as the action was much better than what you saw in MDCI.  An almost identical day to MDCI yesterday and today this one showed it might be the better of the two.

SSRX,  this one is actually a Chinese biotech IPO from yesterday.  Its debut action was not impressive but today's action felt much better.   This is a profitable co. as well and we bought a starter position in this one.  There are lots of IPO's the last few days, we're dipping here for a start around $16.

SYNL, thin stock seem to rule these days.   Earning came out and it didn't take much for this one to move.  We are keeping a close eye on this one to see if there's any follow through.  We have some thoughts on it in the Forum, we are looking for the angles (eth) here more than the earnings to play it in the future.

Boring but still productive!

Market exhibited another lackluster day as two major indices went opposite of each other.    Like many traders, we are also pondering on whether we'd be seeing a big move from this market.    While we ponder our thoughts, we are also busy trading those that are exhibiting superior strength in this market.   Again, there's no shortage of stocks to trade today as it's becoming a trend lately.    In all honesty, as long as there are tradable opportunities for us to get our hands on...Is it even relevant which direction this market is going?    We never believe that anyone can be tied down by the market or a particular stock.    When it's time to move on and cut a position,  one shouldn't think twice to do so.    Liquidity in our opinion is retail trader's greatest assets.    Here are a couple of plays worth noting...

HDNG, yes it's another one of those thin floaters.  lol  Actually we have been trading all kinds of EPS movers this earning season so far.    The stock came to us when it gapped up in a volatile fashion.    The company reported a very decent number and the only concern we had is not knowing how this stock will react based on a heavy institutional presence.    Believe it or not, this one still trades like it only has one million float when in fact there are quite a few  institutions holding over 6 mill shrs combined.   However, there's still no analyst coverage on this one.   What we are looking for is more exposure and coverage.    We had CCF, EML, SYNL and now it's HDNG's turn to show us what it's made of.   One thing is for sure, its earning number doesn't lie.   Oh and it looks like IBD raised its number to 98 94 A after the close, not bad at all.

KBW, this one just didn't take long at all and we added with today's strength after consolidating just over $36.   We knew that a financial company in this market cap range is always sexy and attractive to institutional investors.   Why?   They are always potential takeover target for those big and hungry financial outfit.

USAP HURC GLDN FCN JASO ,  all these made new closing highs and we are being extremely grateful of USAP.   We feel that HURC has a pretty good chance of pulling a USAP move. It seems HURC has more staying power than its previous earning reactions.  Basically, it's acting different with sustained strength.

January was a bit slow for us in terms of earnings report but February seems to be full of good surprises.    This seems always to be the trend for us as we are getting more and more opportunities toward the latter half of the earning season.    The only thing we want to say at this moment is "keep'em coming!".  Friday has a way of throwing out a new play lately, so be ready.

DJIM #9 2007

What was a 4 day shortened week felt anything but as trading seemed to have come to a stall by weeks close.  The week definitely got started on a bang but by weeks end the buyers seemed exhausted and/or just not interested.   So what do you do?.   Well, if you can't buy anything with potential it gives you time to evaluate your holds and maybe sell some into the 'Green'.  It is not the time to get nutty and turn away from what has been working by chasing something just to make a trade.  It is always better to draw down you positions into the green then having to hastily sell if this lacklustre tone continues and we really have an exhaustion day when the selling hits hard.   What the week provided was for some orderly profit taking and by looking at performance of some DJIM's closely followed in the past 5 trading days, so it was not such bad thing or idea to scale down or add to a strong one or two like CSV.

KRSL 28% SYNL 13%  ONXX 12.1  CSV 8.7  TRT 7.3  BW 6.5  CGX 5.9  USAP 4.0 CCOI 4.2 OEH 3.4 GLDN 3.1..and HURC at its highs was up 15% since alert buy in.  Taking into consideration the last few days, these returns at the end of 5 days of trading is nothing to sneeze at.   The week was not all pairing down positions,  there was some buying and adding to these percentage gains in the likes of KBW and to a lesser extend HDNG.   The only one that got away was CYNO, it looks the Directors got a hold of the hacked version IBD too and decided to sell in bunches this week.   Actually this looks like planned selling again and it has never stopped CYNO before from moving upwards, so we expect this to be a hiccup as well.  You could plug your nose and hold your breath till it goes away or you could just sell when a stock is feeling pressure such as this.  We prefer to sell and not feel the pressure possibly take down a stock of ours.  The stocks above are the primary hit/ hold list for DJIM, we might have reduced exposure in some like BW after a big run but these are also the first we'd be looking to throw money back at in the upcoming trading week.

What probably got us through the week was the continuation of the solar plays. Right now, JASO FSLR TSL are providing more than ample opportunity to swing a trade. The good thing is seemingly there is always one moving, so at this point we are hitching a ride here and there and not asking for names.  VTRU VARI , we are waiting on patiently to make a drive for new highs and jump in with some enthusiasm.  The problem is the techs just don't want to lead this NASD to higher ground. 

So...despite the selling in most sectors for 3 out of the 4 days, the NASD and Russell finshed the week up about 1 %.  The Bull/ Bear fight in full force, except the fighting ain't that strong in either direction.  Hope this week is a little more interesting and some conviction comes back.  In the meantime, DJIM will be stay in its own ring and will be after new earning stocks to punch out some profits with. 

DJIM #12 2007

For the week, the indices consolidated and despite a reversal Friday there were a few new plays emerging. 'But'..considering we still don't have any indication of where the market will blow, the same strategy holds going into the trading week as we've discussed numerous times.  What you like to do is to hold stocks that are strong when the market turns like it did Friday.  We made a few buys Friday and for the most part they continued strong into the close.

DXPE, might have made it over the hump with its earning.  We've been following DXPE since its first earning surprise below $10 and it kind of feels like it might become a tradable play once again after a long stay in the house of boredom.  Reported .68 vs. 43c/ Rev 79mln vs. 55mln.  What we like is the sequential growth!.   After a couple of flat sequential Q's, this one proved DXPE has some growth left in its tank and that's what you want if you hope momo traders will start looking at it again.  Anyways, it's good to see there might be another play besides BTJ in this sector that fits into DJIM's mold.

HNSN was a nice quick pickup for those buying, not shorting in the $19's for a quick and furious run to over $21 mid day. This is a medical device player that we've traded before and it seems to be picking up some noise again.  This was a perfect example of a stock wanting new highs.  The nice open and then the pullback where you can load up as it starts to move back up.  That's what we did adding to the starter position and blowing past the initial highs.  Patience.  We've kept some but are not wasting 10% trades without taking them profits on the trading position we acquired during the move.  Oh yeah...Seems Cramer thinks its the next ISRG..lol

GLDN , we noted Thursday night to keep it up there on your trading list despite a cool first day on earnings.  It pulled off a 5+% move, one of the best on the day and now sits over 9ema.  What impressed us was the volume, end of day it had volume it had not seen since being a DJIM pick up in the $30'S.  We'll see if this means more upside soon enough.

AFAM, our little pick up recently made a quiet debut on IBD #77.

Solar plays will be interesting to watch this week after gettin' a beatin' Friday after some broker comments.  We'd still look to FSLR, especially after IBD's profile this weekend.  Remember, we mentioned CYNO last weekend as an IBD play and the follow up big day Monday.  We think this is a little different as FSLR falls in with many names , while a CYNO was less known and not really thrown in with other names in its sector, so it could move on its own.

For other plays we are following/ or trading, see Thursdays Journal.  Most of those names including HDNG held up pretty good. Some other notables are in charts like NVTL, which just keeps ticking slowly along.

all is well....

That's what most people wanted to feel today probably.   The truth is, we are still working off the ugly damage from couple of weeks ago.    In this case, churning is good and more up days and less down days within a contained range make a good setup for future rally down the road.   Meanwhile, when the index is churning away, we ought to be catching some opportunities and keeping an alerted stance at the same time.    Today.. definitely feels like one of those relaxed days and we welcome that change of pace.   Some stocks we are following...

DXPE,  yes it made it back onto the IBD100 list and this one has had a history of being on and off the infamous list.    Is this a big deal anymore?   We think it's not nearly as big of a deal as it once was couple of years ago.   In fact, the IBD play has toned down so much over the time that we find alot of better plays that aren't IBD associated these days.    The float is one thing that keeps DXPE interesting and as long as there's interest in this one, we are willing to stay in and trade it on the long side, aggressively.

HDNG, why this one still isn't on the IBD100 list while some other "crap" got on is still a mystery to us.    Well, IBD or not, the action still looks very healthy and it notched another high today.

FSLR TSL ASTI, a firm had negative comments on the sector premarket and therefore these names under performed the market.  ASTI has its own issues to get over, the private placement price.  FSLR got a lift from the IBD article and it feels like a less volatile bet at this moment.    We are keeping our eyes closely on these and will re-enter when they gain some momentum to the upside again.

CYNO/ JSDA, both stocks gapped at the open off the positive market and held the gap till the close. We sold off some of the CYNO move, the JSDA we weren't holding.  We'll keep an eye on both for another try.

VIP/ ROS,  it seems that some stocks just won't go away and these pair notched a new closing high today off pretty good volumes.    Yes these are foreign stocks that can be volatile at times.    However, when the momentum clearly shows one direction, this type of move can be very rewarding as well.  If you didn't get in or trade them today, we'd pay attention to the charts as these Russian telcos made not the prettiest of candles giving up quite a bit off the top.  This included MBT, to a lesser degree GLDN.  Be patient for indication this move is real now.

Overall, we feel that market is doing a pretty good job of working out of its corrective phase.   At this point, nobody can say for sure how long this corrective phase will last.    One thing is for sure though is that there's still tons of cash on the sideline and ppl won't hesitate twice to jump into a hot sector, story stock, or a general market rally.    We'll just have to make sure that we get in at the right time to get our money's worth.

Tanned....

and not the crispy burned type......Damn....it was hot in here!.  It doesn't take more than a 60 watt bulb to tan these Toronto boyz but nothing gets them hotter than a few of their Solar plays movin' and grovin'.   Rumor has it the market took the day off as many had expected following yesterdays blow out afternoon.   Well,  we didn't notice as this was one those 'oblivious' to the market indices days as our closely followed had a helluva day.  DJIM's gig is to get you following what we trade,  the tedious research can wait till we throw out a new stock to consider ...we'll find what you can trade over and over again and as noted last night some you can store away as well.    Recently, we said it might be wise to put some shares of solar plays away in a shoe box and not worry about trading them in and out as this story is not leaving us for a while....Today..was a perfect example of the potential in these names.  Solar stuff is nothing new as we've traded the WFR SPWR'sin 06, but we like the FSLR, ASTI, TSL to concentrate on in 07'!.   For the average investor or trader to be,  there is no extra plays you need.   We're full time and it's plenty for us.   Until a secondary play catches the same fever as our current plays..we won't go there!.  We welcome the next FSLR...when it comes!...

ASTI...wow are members are the greedy bunch...lol.  We 're not going to push it to $10, we were just below $8 yesterday.  We said when to expect 'us' to come in the last few days.  The script was written and we kept in touch all the way through.  Still...more than one opportunity existed today!.  We've talked about the day if ASTI catches the solar fever and gets bunched in with our other names.  We wanted that!.   If you begin to think like us, the early action in TSL and FSLR should have made you think it might spill to ASTI or at least hope for such and therefore been watching closely.   If you consider our mentions of a potential powerful  'flag' move that ASTI was creating yesterday.  Whats a flag?.  In laymen terms, it's a pennant of sorts in some circles....one look at the chart and the tight range (spread hi-low) yesterday was a move in the making and today there was a catalyst to use to solar it up...the TSL and FSLR to set the bugger off.    So there was two trades in ASTI today.  One was the piggyback ride of the solars to the first leg to the $8.70-80's and the second which we spoke of the last few days.    We had numerous emails, "is the love" and we responded on the forum that you will feel and see it.  The volume was a measly 700k at this point.  The love did come and ASTI added 2 million more shares to the volume end of day and a high of $9.70 was hit on the move we were looking for.   Maybe after 17% on the day gain, we should not concern ourselves about the close.  Sure, we would have liked the highs to be taken out end of day, but 17% is plenty and enough to spread the ASTI name around for a little while....30 cents off the top is nada!.  Maybe we should also accept this is not a Baskin Robbins stock, as in flavor of the day, small float momo stock to run EFUT, FFHL style and accept this is a longer term investment like Norsk (NHY) thinks it is by picking up all those shares.

FSLR, what can we say? ...our fave ain't going to the doghouse after a NCH.  TSL, a top 3 solar here..still has some catching up to do but definitely played its part today.   When we started DJIM, we talked about catching points and watching them add up....parts of 3 points on these two and the ASTI play and you should have a nice glow about you tonight!.

OEH, this has turned quietly into a pride and joy type here.  It is these stock picks that we really like to hit on the head.  Also VTRU,  a earnings and takeover play for DJIM this Q was taken out today for $48 or so.   Well, we already saw higher than todays trade in VTRU after we started covering it,  so today just nailed the trade idea for DJIM.    OEH was here first as a trade that busted out in the 40's after an alert and later it turned into a takeover play.  See Alerts in preview section.   This was confirmed a few weeks ago by Briefingcom and today it hit the press big time.  We got a little lucky buying it again yesterday........well, maybe.......when you look for strength, you sometimes get rewarded and we did today.    We buy NCH's and OEH was flying yesterday as noted in the morning forum before the market even had a chance to suck up the Bernanke.   Looks we don't need to stay at a HMIN at $16 bucks a night now!..lol.  We've kept some and traded this 6% move today and think our OEH can fetch some more room service.  Our mini bar needs re-stocking after todays DJIM stock ride.

KBW, the financials were running hard yesterday afternoon after the FED talk and if you didn't want to dish out about $200 bucks for some GS, we gave the forum an alternative DJIM play at $35.  GS exhausted today, KBW ...which was available for under $35 yesterday... closed at the days high at $37.08.  No easier play for a few shares out there.   We had a laggard as in one not many still associate with a financial play and it proved to be a good bet for a few points.

Where do we stop?;)

BTJ, our oil play..up 2 bucks-6% to a NCH.

CYNO hit 27.66 and still made a NCH,  NVTL almost to mid 15's and looks to solidify the $15's,  HDNG another NCH.  Some others had little spikes like SIMO and GLDN before giving it up, but they've had a few real nice days to follow up on.   Only real loss was a measly $1.20 in HURC. The few that were red, closed less than 1% off.   You can't argue with what our closely followed did today in a boring market day.   Last night, we said you might want to take some profits as this market digests yesterdays afternoon roll.   If you didn't today with this golden opportunity while the market lagged DJIM stocks....consider some tomorrow if profit taking Friday comes.   Still,  this weekend should provide some merger activity that has been shelved before the FED action yesterday.

We dabbled in some CRZ and to a lesser degree OYOG.  CRZ, asset management co' is one we watched before and it reported last night, Crystal River Captial reports Q4 EPS of $0.57 vs $0.07 yr ago; revs rise 69% to $59.1 mln . We like the way it traded and will look at a break over $28 to add.  OYOG is coming to high today and is involved in the oil and gas biz.  It's float is all of 4mln shares and when it comes at a price of $60-70 bucks, you can expect some big spreads.  We'll see if it continues to new highs before adding to a very small piece we hold now.

...streaky

It just happens that writing a Journal keeps us in line to our methodology's of trading. We all need reminders. It is very easy to stray from your niche or your usual ways....you might see a headline or hear a tip from another or two that makes you want to jump in and see what all the ruckus is about.  At the end all that usually does is tie up cash for most and not allow one to get back into a niche play as soon as they would like or at all. This brings us to what we've been prepping ourselves for and hopefully you.   Simply... that is having cash on hand to chase the DJIM niche, earning plays for opening day(s) and not be stuck in laggards that have 'watching paint dry' action.  So far the action is hardly disappointing as we've hit another streak this month with SYNL KRSL TRCR..back to back to back.  One more today and we'll be the Red Sox from the other day!. This is prime example of having money on hand to be able to go hard after a few selective plays,  especially when all the stars line up and you having stellar earning and/or chart to go with it and momentum flow.  Our full attention has been on these 3 stocks but now or even yesterday, one should never forget to do what is right!.   That is to take profits, some or all depending on the days, speed of the play.  All that means is a TRCR was still lased up at the close, while a SYNL KRSL have gone up as much as 5 and 3 dollars from our alerts in a few days. So, yes we have been dwindling down our positions in SYNL, KRSL in a orderly manner.  Early this month, we were riding the JSDA,TSL,UXG etc train.  Our stop came and we got off expecting new plays to emerge.  We wave goodbye and say see ya' later. This week we have new plays and need to say see ya' later sooner than later after the gains produced by them.   Simply, as good as having money ready for EPS season, it is vital you free up cash during earning season to go after the next batch of plays or just one dazzling play.   We are just getting started with small-micro cap announcements, so don't forget the first train is the one you want to be on for the best profits.  The first leg is usually the fastest and most profitable!.  You can catch a connecting train later and have the same seat as before by recycling a play.  "TURNOVER", is the key now.  Use a play, but don't abuse it.  This could mean if we get $14, give or take a few dimes from our first buys AH $11.40's  Monday on TRCR...we would be following the same methodology described above....

A few things...

DXPE and its results.....very tough comps to beat for it this Q. Still it did it,  but probably not enough to get the crowd wiled up. We will watch the reaction and go from there.

RVBD, we might prefer this over DXPE, $33's might have some congestion so we will see how it plays it out.($32now). We will play accordingly if we see it has potential to smash that level or if it does.

SILC, we said this might be number 3 after DXPE,USAP for a pre-earnings run and it didn't disappoint yesterday breaking out to 24.70's. We traded the move and now wait for its call this morning to maybe get in again.

TRT, a few can't get over this one.lol..we put it up on watch the other night and it produced a nice return yesterday for some here (10%). At this point, we prefer to wait on there sneaky mid day possible earning release to possibly play.

MFW GLDN BW RCCC USAT TNH MTOX ATR, maybe a few others round out what we are watching or playing in smaller sizes.

...Viva Las Vegas...

.."All you need is a strong heart and a nerve of steel" ...How'd Elvis know that's what you need to play this dog days of summer game in late August?.   It's simply a game gone awry with attendance hovering below average and so with little volume, the movements are exaggerated in both directions.   This played in to our game plan for today, rest of week, we felt it was overdone yesterday and with a little intervention it was possible to see your holds shoot back up.  After the street suffered its worst day of losses in about 3 weeks, it was the same banking sec leading the way after starting the shakedown yesterday.  Only this time we had the energy/ semi kicking it up as well.   If you got these 3 sec's going, you got yourself the beginning of a nice move.  A move that was aggravated to the upside by a little intervention as whispers of Bernanke bark from early in the week hit the wires around 2:30pm....."act as needed" ... Ah timing, how sweet it was.  We thought we'd rebound, but the thinking was it would be leading into Bernanke address Friday that many are pushing.  We think it's a false push as Bernanke will avoid the juicy stuff and the market might not re-act so nicely as many are being given false hope something will be revealed.  There's a time and place and this shouldn't be it.

As for individual stocks...the snap backs mentioned last night continued and ones we noted hanging tough before being sliced and diced late in the day yesterday were the ones leading the way...

DRYS, with the BDI making new highs yesterday, it was almost silly to watch it slide yesterday . But..then again, this is DRYS and these moves are nothing new.  Today it pumped up 8% and finds itself at highs.  Will it hold this time?. 

GLDN, this is about 10 points since the 15th when we started covering it again after it signed a deal with McDonalds in Russia.  It's closed just under a NCH and with VIP, MBT reporting soon, we think it could go higher if these Russian buddies report well.  The dates are in the earnings link.  There is still a few days to those reports, so we'd watch this top area that has been touched a few times in recent history for now.

ISRG, finally!..after banging its head in the $212 area for like 5 or 6 consecutive days, it finally pushed through end of July high close. Any other time of the year, we'd say the volume was not convincing for a breakout.  But, considering its late August and dry everywhere this might be enough to push it further.

WX, continued its bounce of 9ema area early on, but the move never materialized further when the market kicked in.  One other disappointment was the action in VMW considering the technology sec was grooving and it opened $72's..  Sometimes the popular kids just don't go to these lame summer parties.  We think these got their own game going and today they just let others play after partying for days!

LDK, yes, we watched the FSLR, JASO % moves, but the one that stands out to us is LDK here.  If any of these solars should have moved the most, it was LDK as it got another 500mln supply gig.  The others just had recovery bounces.  The LDK chart looks best out of these and that's what we're going with into tomorrow's trading day.

A few other names familiar names we're trading into tomorrow are CRNT, PCR as they sit 9ema area.

Last  night, we said despite the beating, most DJIM plays were above the 9ema and therefore in play.  We saw that potential play today and now it is better as many are near or at highs.  If the market has room to go higher, this where we want to be...stocks making NCH's

...Mirage

A mirage..that's all this summer subprime crisis was!. A big head head fake just for some to buy lower and then have a meteoric rise to new heights...distortion created with lots of blowing of cold and hot air!. Okay, maybe not completely true but how else do you explain this recent rebound, yesterdays possible breakout moves off what could have been perceived as bad morning news.  The subprime news, the Citigroup headlines had no impact on the markets.  When was the last time we saw this?.   We've turned on a dime with every headline from this front....but not yesterday.   This is old news simply and the market wants to get on with earnings and what is generally the best Q in the markets.   A beneficiary of this market was plain and simple to see, one niche was the DJIM covered plays that blew past the competition.  A simple point to our trading methodology is to have a sane niche of stocks to follow, not an insane number that can't be watched closely enough to recycle. This is why we have a watchlist/play list that we hope you follow.    It saves you time and money.  Yesterday was a day for our beloved..

FSLR, an alert last week to a potential breakout move this week was the solar play to be in.  The other two we closely follow, LDK got 'briefed' to death yesterday on it's equipment pushouts,  JASO did nada and is selling more of their ADR's this morning.  If you shadow our plays, you saw we were only on FSLR back at this time.

GS, noted the tight range of trading the previous two days in yesterdays Journal.  On a good market day these ranges can balloon to the upside and this is what we saw here.  We are about collecting points and not the % gain, so to us this was up to a 8pt move yesterday. With FSLR and GS there was almost 15+ pts from our final remarks on Friday and yesterdays morning Journal highlighting them.

DRYS, EXM continued forward to new highs with some IBD print on the sector and a couple of price upgrades in the morning. TBSI got back in the hunt and is close to highs.

MR, EJ, moved to new levels and JRJC proved to be a worthy trade for those familiar with it.   Now, we just ask WX to get some game and it will have our most recent China plays on even ground. Oh yeah..where was BIDU yesterday?.  Lets no forget this rocket ship when looking for a good intraday trade.

VMW, we don't cover much tech, but VMW has been the one we have traded the most.   Finally..this one is acting with the sector which is leading the recent parade and not playing on its own terms. $90+ is in reach now.

ROS, GLDN our Russian telco plays are not be forgotten as long as they cling to highs and therefore offer more upside potential in the near future.  WBD moved to 114 intraday after it was noted as a possible reversal play from 111's. This one provides some volatile thin action with some large spreads. the worst thing you can do is put in market orders in this play.

ANW, LULU cover the ipo watchlist here.

LWAY, we don't know what rumor was out there but this recent play was a hurricane yesterday. Congrats to any that have held through. Yesterday was exit day.

CSCT, the chart looks good but we have to keep mum on OTB stocks or we will have a flood of them on the forum. Sooner or later a bad one be printed on the forum and will cause a few to drown, so we try to avoid till they are listed.

As important as finding the right and easy plays, it is just as important to think out load and give our thoughts on plays like SSTR, even if you won't like it.  We're not talking about your Mama, we're talking stocks here.!    Hopefully, we saved some of you some cash yesterday.   Anything could rebound, we just have no interest at this time.  

We'd also remove GRMN off our watchlist. There are too many unknowns here now.  Last week gains look like a set up to the news yesterday. Those shorts got something to cheer about yesterday.

This probably covers 80-90% of the plays here recently,  if you don't have all day to peruse the entire stock world for plays then this list is all you need to carry you and your book.  It's not a lot of stocks.  This is just a reminder and for those that are new here.   Days like yesterday are the icing and come around quite a bit.   Just have money on hand for fresh stocks this new earnings season, as we noted in our last alert.

Bulls on 'roids and Pigs can fly..!.

Those seem to be facts now!.   This is what we saw yesterday as the Chinese bulls roared off the Asian markets, even when left at home alone with the SHANG on holiday's.    With every Bull shot there is a pig in it's footsteps.   Meaning speculation on junk ones was wild and you need to be careful at this probable late stage in the game.    Back at the ranch, the market was doing better than expected with not a lot of profit taking.   We added this footnote to a post before noon,  "Considering yesterdays action this hasn't been bad at all or meager for the small caps /RUT been green most of the day. Bunch of those sorts here having good days WX EJ BIDU JRJC LULU MELI ROS GLDN FSLR EXM TBSI..AZZ might still " .    The day turned from good to very good late in the session for these stocks and a few others like GS, VMW, CSCT.    The market continued to trade sideways and finished mixed, yet for consecutive days now, we were in the right place at the right time.     Hopefully, our morning Journal steered you back home if you've strayed!.     This was the true Bull shot of the day, the DJIM index.    There is really not much to say heading into today trading, except that hopefully we all played these shooters smart and took some off the table.    This is especially true with the gains generated by the Chinese stocks covered here.    Even the good ones will get nosebleeds.

A member noted and what is probably a good way to understand the Journal is to see it as us thinking 'out load'.  One thing is to shadow plays, another is to shadow our mindset, which is probably the better way to go.     We can't give buy/ sell advice, all we could do is show what we are buying and thinking.    Hopefully, it rubs off on you and improves your trading ways.    When we noted yesterday.."Now, we just ask WX to get some game and it will have our most recent China plays on even ground. Oh yeah..where was BIDU yesterday?.     Lets no forget this rocket ship when looking for a good intraday trade.".    You need to ask yourself why are we even mentioning these two that under performed the day before.    Simply, we are thinking ahead and with a big overnight Asian market these just might come out and play with the rest of the kids.   Trading is so much a psyche game, you need to think ahead and think what others will or might do.   Your gig is to get there in the early stage or even ahead of the herd.   We gave the below leads yesterday, clues into where we might be leaning and why.  All you needed was one or two to have an excellent day.  The language is simple and we'd all should have been prepared..

TBSI got back in the hunt and is close to highs.

VMW, we don't cover much tech, but VMW has been the one we have traded the most.   Finally..this one is acting with the sector

which is leading the recent parade and not playing on its own terms. $90+ is in reach now

ROS, GLDN our Russian telco plays are not be forgotten as long as they cling to highs and therefore offer more upside potential in the near future.

WX and BIDU( wasn't all JPM initiation), it was a matter if you build it, they will come!.   The build up was the overnight markets and these were prime candidates to play in the mud with the others.    Anyways, yesterday was a day for us to daytrade these high flying Chinese stocks and it occupied most of our day.    Now, we need to get back to basics and deal with reality and concentrate on the others like GS, FSLR, VMW, AZZ etc.  The EPS winners and ones to come and the potential set ups that we can all get in early on. 

We all need to be a realistic after two days of solid gains!