leaders 'lead'

One again anything that can be construed as negative tilted news was brushed aside by US markets (globally it wasn’t).  We’ve discussed this since the middle of last week as market turns a blind eye, now it’s continuing the trend at window dress up time and ahead of earnings season.  This is same factor at work as when alerted at SPX1250 and said to watch for negative ‘nuke’ news not get sold off any longer, which would be a positive going forward.  Every bit of negative newsflow is seemingly ignored now as investors tolerance has been built up with Macro global issues.  It's perplexing to many.  It could continue until Friday as investors/traders await all the data/QE2 for that day.

The morning ramp can be attributed in part to nobody finding a catalyst overnight (see yesterday's closing note) to close market below the pivotal SPX 1314.  There was no positive catalyst out there this morning.   It was a matter of Performance Anxiety (PA) setting in as managers went after growth/ momentum names.  Remember, these names didn’t participate in the first leg off 1250SPX and really haven’t played a big part of the ‘missing link’ tech (mostly SOX) rush that ensued afterwards.   Momo-linked stocks like FFIV APKT AMZN SOHU and many more simply caught a bid.  As 2pm approached many probably thought the market may repeat Monday’ s late selling due to no positive newsflow, but ‘leaders’ were at work this time with PA being enough of a catalyst and so chance of sticking the SPX gains was a high possibility unlike Monday.  Technically, it was important to get back over SPX 1314 quickly and the icing is a close of 1319, which could be enough for more points as noted in weekend Journal.

Shadowlist

A stack of DJIM names +>3pts as growth/leaders lead the way today.

• Momentum/ earnings/ winners of ’10-    SOHU +7, PCLN +7, AMZN +5, FFIV +4, (NCH's- SFLY  OTEX)  APKT +3pts  broke trendline.  SOHU, unleashed a huge move, saw no news, only idea of why is…China Unicom's results point to a strong mobile internet ramp in 2011, as BIDU SINA  act well too.
• Commodities – WLT +4pts, MCP +4, CRR nch,
• Consumer-  noted Retail was fine yesterday despite leisure selling,  LULU nch , RL, UA all +3-4pts off recent DJIM PVH +5pt on earnings.

..another pack

It was a actually a good underlying tape to market naysayers as a few ‘defensive’ sectors led the market higher, but as far as DJIM’s underlying ‘Shadowlist’ tape, it was a second consecutive day of managers swallowing PA pills of mid/small caps as evident in the R2K's 2:1 outperformance of the major indicies. (*DJIM not liking SOX performance for a NAZ up >20pts intaday).  Yesterday’s winners rested and a fresh batch of DJIM plays took over. (see attachment on site). R2K is at 2007 levels. So all cool here today, but broad market is probably signalling a halt coming due to some internals today.

We entered the week in anticipation of …1) “…many are behind the ball on it (as in surprised).  This coming into a month end/Q end is where a PA pill (performance anxiety) will likely be swallowed by managers to play catch .. (many thought it was done with prior weeks gains because many times front running the final week occurs). 2) There’s a cluster of “R’ around 1313-1319, but once a close occurs over, the market will have higher sights in mind and it should happen this week. 3)  rally…”It could continue until Friday as investors/traders await all the data/QE2 for that day.”. 

Taking into account all 3 have taken place this week, today was another 11-12 SPX at day’s peak to March highs, so thoughts of continuation over new "R" into Friday morning is a little too much to imagine.  All in, the market has set itself up (disappointment?) Friday’s eco data, notably Global PMI’s and the effect all the Global macro issues (Libya-oil/ Japan) have had on the numbers.  The NFP# shouldn’t be as important, but if it surprises big to the upside it will likely be a negative for market as Fed comments have become more ‘ hawkish’, as some today.  Note, we are another “R” cluster to low 1330's-1335, still a break is clear sailing to years highs.

..listless

A listless trading day was we got… “ thoughts of continuation into Friday is a little too much too imagine”.   The trading premise since last weekend has been the market can run freely on PA (window dressing), it’s complacency over negative tilted newsflow and no eco’ data until Friday to walk freely.   Well, Friday is around the corner and we’ll get to see via Global PMI’s /US ISM if Global Macro issues have played havoc and NFP#(see yesterday’s hawkish fed note).   Just before close a semi-hawkish Fed member sounded off in a hawkish tone (raise rates by .75 year end), but the big 3 members have yet to comment. 

All in, the market big $ longs and markets shorts are on hold. The data may do nothing to change.

Opticals, Ag's, look here for any follow through off today.

Update on Friday, April 1, 2011 at 08:39AM by Demi/ YourPersonalTrader

PMI's ok/inline except big UK decline, still FTSE up

NFP#, inline, not as hawkish as feared, market should be relieved so far from data.

US ISM/, Fed speak from top 3 dove dog (Dudley) , still to come ~10am

DJIM #14 2011

As cited Friday post Global PMI/ US NFP#, the market should have been relieved as numbers came out better than feared.  March PMI’s withstood the shock of all macro global issues and NFP# came in solid, but not a big beat to make the latest hawkish case stand up. (*see below for more on PMI's).  The Bears still had a few shots to disturb the day, but US ISM came in line and most importantly, Fed Dudley curbed a week’s worth of ‘hawkish’ (tightening) exuberance by keeping to the ‘big 3 ‘ doves mandate. (Bernanke Monday night speak to follow).   

DJIM expectation was..” All in, the market big $ longs and markets shorts are on hold. The data may do nothing to change.”.   Basically, the market sighed a relief and it moved past “R” from data, but the big $$  is still not convinced to chase this 6.5 % rally off SPX 1250 and closed back below “R” top/ SPX 1335.   Market wannabe participants, (this includes big money longs and shorts) who look at the market rally in disbelief will be left with little to go on this upcoming week prior to earnings season.  Why?.  Simply, we are into a very quiet US economic/ earnings calendar week as SPX nears it's highs for the year.   It looks like the market might experience 'technical difficulties’, as in a market driven by technical analysis as the SPX nears ‘ double top’ ..Bear lingo.(* R2K/DJIA are above it.)  That’s all great chatter and makes use for all the crayon chart drawings you see in the social media stock world, but once the day is done, shorts/Bears are unlikely to do much (conviction) before earnings get into gear and risk more upside from the market.   It won’t be a surprise to see pre-announcements this week, we’ve seen quite a few already.  It will be interesting to see market’s follow through reaction as they hit (how much already baked in?). 

In all, we could be stuck as both sides have little conviction, likely all newsflow will come from outside US markets (ECB upcoming hike, China possible hike).

*While PMI’s held up for March, it’s very possible that immediate impact is not yet showing and April reading's will deteriorate.  It’s a few weeks away, but if a sizable correction is to occur, it will begin prior to the releases later in the month of April.   Earnings will need to offset possible Macro (Japan,Oil) drags ahead for investors to find value in stocks.

Shadowlist

■Momentum/ earnings/ winners of ’10-   If you think window dressing front running doesn’t exist,  just look at a 5 day FFIV chart.  Isn’t it sweet when a house downgrades (FFIV) immediately after a 8-10pts ramp higher into Q end.  This goes back to what we were saying about possible jumping on these missing link laggards into Q end.

Just 24 hrs after a bottom seemed to be formed in the opticals, a mid cap (EXFO earnings) destroys all linked names like JDSU, FNSR.  It’s quiet silly/ridiculuos and shows why it’s a momo’ trade this year as 50mln to 500mln market caps are bringing havoc on 2-4 bln market caps.  This action wouldn’t happen in many other sectors in the marketplace and will eventually be in play again as network builds are not going away in US and China.

As as broad tech, the SOX ‘dislike’ underperformance noted here mid week extends, month end couldn’t do much for a bid into the consumer end tech hardware/semi linked plays.  This is where most pre- announcements will likely occur.

As far as Shadowlist components, Wednesday included a few select winners on site. A few continued to be stong to close off the week.  NPTN  surged to a peak of ~20% next day, TDSC, added 13%, MSTR,  tacked on 3% to 8-10% Wednesday's gains.  WTW,  another 6%/ 5pts. 

■Commodities –  One sector that did have follow through on Friday as per note to watch was the Ferts/Ag’/,equp./chem.  As the coal trade here likely cools off shortly, we’d look for the ferts/ag’s/chem to trade post USDA numbers boosting corn prices. (Thurs.) 

■Consumer-  the retail sec is not getting much market attention, but DJIM earnings related retail/ lux plays continue to make new highs during a big week/month.  SODA,+6%nch FOSL, TBL, WFMI, UA surged Friday.  RL next for highs?. See table on site attached.  Also, casino (WYNN LVS )  on watch again since last week had nice day as March Macau numbers were excellent, the comps were very hard to beat, but they did so in record fashion.

..meandering

As the market meandered near the flat-line in the morning, you as a trader begin to look over the Shadowlist to see any trends developing. What you see today, is what you see many days lately and that’s pockets of strength in stocks linked to any individual news. IE., First hour of trading,MCP  >10% on an acquisition, APKT >5% on target price increases and the flip side SODA down 10% on a 5mln share offering, NVDA on price decrease.  

Unfortunately, a sidelined market consists of days like this as traders jump on anything making news, even if it is as irrelevant as a price tgt increase without an upgrade attached.  Other more important trends were visible and that’s where ‘slower’ money is going instead of ‘fast money’ looking for a quick flip in and out. (see below).  If you pick up the relative strength early on, you can dwindle your Shadowlist trading list from 60 names to maybe 10 to concentrate on intraday.

By trading close, a meandering market continued and the stocks/sec’s noted here kept outperforming and/or underperforming.  Nothing really changed all day.

The SOX once again weighted on the market as the biggest underperformer <1%.  AMC, TXN bought a grandfather of a semi stock for a huge premium.  It will likely be a very temporary boost as pre-announcements possibilities are first and foremost in investor’s minds.

Shadowlist

■Momentum/ earnings/ winners of ’10 – Last week we noted strength in Chinese Internet related names, once again SOHU BIDU, SINA  were up 3-7%.

■Commodities  - Relative strength in Ag’s/ Chems continued to follow through post USDA report.

Update on Tuesday, April 5, 2011 at 04:59AM by Demi/ YourPersonalTrader

Apple Inc. will have its weighting
in the Nasdaq-100 Index lowered as part of changes to the gauge
by Nasdaq OMX Group Inc. to better reflect company market
capitalizations.

http://bloom.bg/gvckYr

...holding up

Market reaction to what may be construed as negative tilted newsflow (crude price, a few Eco data points, lowering of GDP forecasts ) continues to be limited by long holders. One of the underlying reasons is a tick up in broad market M&A activity ranging from telcos to semi action last night.  Most other market times, a $6.5 bln deal in the Semiconductor space would propel the Nasdaq to hefty gains, but not this market today!. Unfortunately, we are in somewhat of a hold mode as Japan and some overall softness in consumer hardware space gets digested and investors wait on earnings to commence and/or pre-announcements  (a few more mid -caps today, but nobody large) to unfold.   As shorts watch the market edge higher for almost 3 weeks now, a fear of more upside has left them sidelined.

The only space shorts have tried to take advantage of is the Semi space and the TXN deal screwed them of their only home.  We would have seen market gains instead of another meandering day, if ‘conviction’ buyers entered the market. The initial ramp in Naz, semi’s was pure good old fashioned short covering as their semi home got raided.  Post-short covering, the conviction buyers simply stayed away despite all the upgrades in semi’s.  The market needs leadership and if a trough is around the corner for the semi’s, it might get some money off the bench and a follow through to chase higher beta growth would likely follow.

In all, the anticipation here heading into the week is unfolding as the market is seemingly on summers hours working off the rally in horizontal fashion before earnings.  As the R2K beats on higher, it welcomes a move higher from more of the market as digestion occurs near 1335PX.

Update on Wednesday, April 6, 2011 at 11:20AM by Demi/ YourPersonalTrader

Hard pullback to note from open-10am on momo', notably internet linked names with mkt green.  Some kind of profit taking or/and rotation?..Financials JPM bid, Semi's trough?....we'll see

SINA SOHU BIDU TZOO PCLN APKT NFLX AMZN OPEN LULU  all over~5-10pts down reversals.

Opticals trying that bottoming again from last week, outperforming

Smells like rotation..

Although, the market only made incremental gains to a close of SPX 1335 “R”, the importance of the day likely lies in DJIM’s morning market update…

“….Hard pullback to note from open-10am on momo', notably internet linked names with mkt green.  Some kind of profit taking or/and rotation?..Financials JPM bid, Semi's trough?....we'll see….SINA SOHU BIDU TZOO PCLN APKT NFLX AMZN OPEN LULU  all over~5-10pts down reversals”.  

Strong names of late like MCP PANL CTXS  joined the selling parade after hitting fresh highs off the open. The afternoon and close did nothing to alleviate pressure as most names finished near lows of days.  It would be a mistake to see only marginal losses from previous day's close and not see the losses made in first 30 minutes off highs..

As the day progressed, evidence of potential rotation was becoming more evident.  Money wasn’t only coming out of earnings/ momo’ names, but also out of energy and a few other recent leading sec’s.  More proof was the late push in XLF and JPM,GS closing near highs of day and SOX outperforming the comp/NDX, 5:1 .  Throw in some Dow 30 mega’s like  CSCO >5%, HPQ AXP JPM, MSFT outperformance and the day’s puzzle  starts to come together.

Only yesterday, we discussed…..”The market needs leadership and if a trough is around the corner for the semi’s, it might get some money off the bench and a follow through to chase higher beta growth would likely follow”.  Well, not only did leadership come from SOX , we also saw money come off the bench/ profit taking from momo’earning names into the Financials  (other big leadership group investors like to see).  Played out a little differently, but nonetheless we saw fresh buying, likey the bigger $$ flow we've noted as the lacking buy conviction.

All in, it almost seems too perfect if we get this rotation coinciding at these technical levels, so you have to be prepared for all trading possibilites..up or down.

Global Central banks in focus Thursday, notably ECB and what Trichet’s commentary will expose on pace of further hikes after iniital .25bps tomorrow.

Shadowlist

■Financials  - RKH, regional bank ETF usually works well if this to continue, better than trading XLF.  GS, JPM.

■Momentum/ earnings/ winners of ’10 – Last week cited Opticals/fibre had that bottoming feeling until EXFO earnings.  Now, OCLR report wasn’t any better, but analysts suggest growth will resume 2H.  FNSR  OPLK  JSDU >4%-9% in the first hour and held up to close.  The reaction was typical ‘baked in’ as the stocks followed a different road post SANM EXFO earnings.  As far as profit taking in momentum names…there is plenty of money to be taken from other sectors and so it may not last long in high beta momentum because earnings are around the corner.  Still, it’s best to be prudent if trying to find a bottom point as money comes out faster on the way down then up in this group.

■Consumer – retail numbers on deck Thursday morning. ANF and BBBY tonight provide a nice floor so far.  WYNN, LVS  should not fall into any further momo’ selling as the picture here has turned more fundamental since Macau report.

Shake, Rattle and Roll on..

Considering the market just rebounded from SPX1250 to nearly year’s highs after an Earthquake, Tsunami, Nuclear fears, you have to believe a 7pt something magnitude quake will only Shake, Rattle and Roll the market back to it's early morning fault line.   This morning’s slide was pure ES/ SPY stuff with little reaction on individual stocks.  Stocks that fell through the crack did so on small volume as bids naturally disappear and scary pants will sell at any level to exit.  As traders, we've lived through enough turbulent moments the last few year’s to know being spooked out of positions is no way to go.  As soon as rationale set in, the market rebounded and was back to the same trends expected here entering the week (waiting on earnings to kick off).  Give shorts some credit for not laying out some conviction by pressing the market off another quake headline.

All in, not a bad day considering Financials only traded inline / SOX succumbed to a little profit taking following Samsung’s report on NAND specifiaclly that hit semi-equip linked stocks, yet SPX posted only an incremental loss.

Shadowlist

■Financials  - Not the best day for rotation to exhibit itself due to newsflow. GS  edged over 50ma as sector heads into it’s earnings. Last few Q’s it’s moved into the reports.

■Momentum/ earnings/ winners of ’10 –  TDSC,KEYN, finally broke out to NCH

”..there is plenty of money to be taken from other sectors and so it may not last long in high beta momentum because earnings are around the corner. Still, it’s best to be prudent if trying to find a buy point as money comes out faster on the way down then up in this group”.  At least it was good see a few momo names snap back, SINA, SOHU.  MCP , did as well but it was purely on newsflow (congress bill)

DJIM #15 2011

Market waited nearly 5 full trading days before making a mild move in either direction.  As expected here, it was a week of no conviction from the longs and/or shorts with no catalytic eco/earnings on the schedule.

Halleluiah!!., earnings season is upon us as trading has resembled summer doldrums.  The game last week was simply in other large asset classes, USD hits 52 wk low, commods’- metals surged, TSY’s.    Although SPX was pretty flat for the week, we did see profit taking and/or some rotation from Industrials, Transports, HMO’s, all off  2-3% , as sentiment changed for the better in Financials, Retailers, Semi’s.  As cited, both sides are/were hesitant to get in front of earnings and so US market's drifted all week, while Europe and China with earnings coming later outperformed with 2% gains.  That sums up the uncertainties and question marks felt for US corporation’s reports.  It’s a mixed bag for expectations as we’ve had pre-announced blow ups in mid-small names, but none in big influential names.  Tech data points add to the confusion, it changes daily to know really what is going on out there.  The trading outcome in Opticals  covered here this week is a possible light at the end of the tunnel (baked in note) for tech in general as reports start coming in, good/or bad.   This is one Q, you don’t want to be in a tech linked stock heading into an EPS report after a few Q’s where it wasn’t all that dangerous to do so.  

All in, earnings need to come through on the upbeat side to keep the broad momentum going as the market sentiment is waning with tightening sounds picking up /crude price accelerating (can’t keep doing more $5 jumps a week) as it will certainly dampen consumer spending/ growth.   As said last week, investors need to see value in stocks to keep the trend in tact for Q2 or market risks a correction later this month, earnings are the big key to that!

Earnings this week.(click below on site) 

drifting into support..

As the market entered the month of April, we cited..”Note, we are another “R” cluster to low 1330's-1335, still a break is clear sailing to years high’s”. March 31.  Immediately afterwards the market had 5 consecutive closes just below 1335 (between 1132-1335) failing to breakout and close above 1335.   After so many failed attempts, it is hardly surprising the market is drifting lower last few days as traders become generally fatigued waiting on catalysts, any catalysts.  Now 12 days into April and the market hasn’t even tested 1344 high.  There is simply nobody home to play this trading game so far this month,  it’s excruciatingly painful to be part of it as scarcity/no supply of buyers see stocks drift lower because there is simply no bids.   Due to this, quite a few stocks are looking oversold as individual stocks are looking worse off than the major indices and may attract dip buyers soon.   Indices are looking like they will play catch up to stocks beginning to test the gap where all this began late March(SP1319-1322).  Just below is our benchmark level for the market since 2009 and that is the 20ma at 1310.  The 50Ma is somewhere in between gap and 20ma making this a cluster of “S” Support for the market to monitor.