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Entries in NFX (1)


..some deja vu

Trichet’s tricks consisted a comforting/ soothing massage, delay of liquidity/exit strategy and no radical ‘nuke’ as expected here.   Luckily, the market really did not believe their potential luck (a massive bond purchase) and proceeded to go on their merry way to more upside.  Included was an excellent >2X oversubscribed Spanish offering/ ECB buying and all peripheral CDS tightened.  Add, an ‘economic driver’ in pending  US home sales, which has been the laggard in improving data and SPX is now up >2.5% on the week.  Oh yeah, lost in all the events are slight China monetary policy changes for the better.

What was interesting about today was the ‘tape’, which included the momo/best of year stocks cooling off/very tepid action and lower tier stocks/groups broadly play catch up seemingly.  This is something we haven’t seen all year and maybe not since March '09 as economic sensitive recovery stocks/groups (a lot of crap too) led the climb.   We said weeks ago to watch for a rotation from TSY’s to stocks and with the yield hitting 3% today, we were hearing this premise from the media and importantly, saw this in the tape (Shadowlist).  On most days we’d be disappointed or questioning a market move to the upside if the AAPL PCLN NFLX FFIV’s  types were not participating (even best of commodity linked stocks lagged a nice $CRX gain/and cyclical techs outperformed), but with the ‘overwhelming’ turn this week on economic outlook, it is probably ‘growth’  stocks taking a backseat as they may seem ‘expensive’ compared to the all the other stuff out there.   If there is ‘performance anxiety’ out there into year end, managers may feel there is more upside to the cyclical laggards.  Still, you figure they would like to show ‘big winners’ on their books EOY, but they will need some money to rotate into cyclicals, so the action in momo’s should be watched, even though there should be enough ‘bond’ money for everybody.

In all, all eyes on the high expectations of NFP#.  If this figure does bomb, importantly, we still have Santa Ben  to possibly stuff some stockings on 60 minutes.  He didn’t do too bad in March 09, did he??