DJIM #21 2007

Sitting Bull wasn't basking in his laurels, recent victories come Friday. Instead, he and has band of M&A and buy back share brothers decided to charge signaling yet more accumulation. Once again the army of bears didn't have the muster to do anything to curtail this frenzy buying.  So we march forward and with every stoppage in play, we continue to expect the ways of the Bull to keep us going with MSFT-AQNT type hoopla creeping into the market. So that's the big world, what's happened in our little world, niche. Well, what can be better than having 3 closely followed DJIM make it to IBD this weekend. Not to shabby to have three (NGA-TBSI-GTI), be the top three new inclusions at # 5,9,26.  Hey even Curlin our sentimental Derby pick, stuck it's nose out with a flurry in the Preakness this weekend.  So..all good seemingly as we head into the week after what appeared as distribution earlier in the week. Still the NASD and small cap indices finished lower on the week and this is the ho-hum in the market that continues to concern us.  Maybe this time these market players play catch up this upcoming week. A hunch is they do.  Also, keep the big oils up as we head into Memorial day. Stocks like OXY, SLB, UPL should do better than the small cap names in this sector because bigger caps have been the leaders. If there is big money wanting to play this sector, it should go to stocks like these. On the charts, these look great and when called for, we like to trade these names.

KHDH, was a new buy in for us. The co's earnings for the most recent Q came out early last week and are up in the Alert section. We've had our eye on it for awhile and this earning as seen by its 2 days with 100k+ volume it got noticed.  We 'll look to add on dips or further strength. This trades in a fashion similiar to a CPY type and so it is possible to do both.  IBD composite rating is at 97.  This might suit the investor who has picked up our May buy in plays like RCCC, NTLS, CUB, SPAN, AFAM.  A few companies that don't get the recognition here on a daily basis because they are just nice and steady plays that you can't say much about on a daily basis.  Speaking of...lets give some of our secondary plays spotlight for a change. They are not secondary for those that can't watch like a hawk the faster plays day in day out from DJIM. These holders are doing just as fine this month without the diet of Pepto.

RCCC, touched on 29.70 from the May 4th buy in at 26.50ish levels(12%). Trades nicely a $1 above the 9ema for the last few weeks. Not much you can say about it steadiness, except watch the 9ema as a guide.

NTLS, also an early may pick up in the higher 22's as another wireless play a la RCCC.  Just like RCCC this EPS play closed with a NCH at 24.4 and is gliding on air just above the 9ema. A possible 8% is nothing to sneeze at in a couple of weeks.

CUB, a buy-in low 22's off earning popped to a $24.30 close Friday. Just another 10% play so far. As much as we like to play the NGA's,IDSA's, there is nothing like patting an account with consistent steady 10% plays.

AFAM has bounced from 20's to 24 since our premkt earnings note May 8th. 7 bucks off highs is only 3 now.

FWLT CROX MA LXU GTI TBSI SPAN SPAR IDSA MR MTOX, other prominent May DJIM plays that we are trading at different times depending on set ups and market conditions.  As far as TRT, FWLT has definitely been the play as its stands 20% above that premkt intro.  Meanwhile, TRT nests back to 9-14ema and at 19 is below 19.50 premkt initial price off EPS. Quite a few of you did not like our stance on TRT after its earning. After our full write up last week it declined 15%,-5 straight down days, we hope you had a change of heart if we saved you a buck or two. Is it going to bounce or is going to fill some of the gap?

NGA, okay... so this followed the script since we first alerted/ bought into at $10, April 30th. The stock traded to high 15's all last week and the suspense was over for us at that point.  The only suspense came back in the last 15 minutes or so Friday, actually it wasn't suspense but a 'you better get there' plea. The inevitable finally happened and now we see if this was only a IBD inclusion play or not?  In other words, will this have the kick to get to the 20's split time. We'll see if the 100k+ comical push in the last 3 minutes will be a forward to a dump-eroo in the morning now that it made it on. Of course, we hope it finishes with a new closing high and continues to be in play.  Consider the flight of IDSA, SPEC recent additions to IBD100.  The following highs on Monday have not been reached again.  We were not warning on Friday, we are only throwing caution to the wind after a possible 50%+ run here.  We see no reason to blow 'any' of the profits generated in the month off NGA and have walked away with plenty in the high 15's already.  It makes little difference to us that we are at those same prices Friday AH's.  We'd be no better off yet if we hadn't sold off most earlier.  Still we have some and most likely will sell into any morning strength and then re-position if further strength is shown during the day or days ahead.

What can we learn from today?

...or what can we learn from the past few days?   We are learning that we can not draw any definitive conclusion about this market.    It just looks like it doesn't take much to push this market into either direction.    The giant point swing is a mere exaggeration of the uncertain status this market is currently in.   Unfortunately, all these volatility isn't creating that many tradable opportunities for most of us.     What we look for here are the plays that can sustain an upward movement for a number of days or enough of a percentage run that make the risk/reward worth while.    So once again, we are just going to take some plays as is and not to extrapolate anything from their movement today.  

here are some notables..

TNH, chemical plays are hot and given a favourable market condition, they tend to out shine most others.    Ok, so we know this is like the beta play when it comes to following the index.   This one can trade very volatile intraday, point wise and you can find a lot of resemblance if you compare to the indices.    Bottom line, this one made a NCH and it's ready to challenge that magical triple digit mark.    Trade this wild one if you can but full attention is required to make the best out of it.  TRA got a buy rating today from Matrix and that got it rolling.  Do take note of the mass defection at $100 once, we tried the other day getting to $99.75 and you could see some shaky nerves at work.

KMGB, it feels like this little one is following TNH and it popped up during last half an hour on a big volume surge.   Momentum is very much alive with this one and we have no choice but to follow through some with this one.

KHDH, this one broke out on a long consolidation base . We added and will be watching this one closely to see if it can muster some extra follow through to give us potentially more over $60.  This has been one steady player since we introduced last earning.

CUB RCCC VSNT,  sure, there seem to be a lot of popular heroes out there today but these three just keep on moving up quietly in their own way.  All three made a NCH.   We are trying our best not to let our eyes off these ones because next thing you know, they are up 10%.   In this market, if you can find something that can get you 10% with a relative low risk within a few days, you'd be considered a champ.

Like we said this weekend....  "If this was a sign of volatility for the summer of 100+/-30+/- pts days, we'd prefer it to the laziness we often start to see at this time of the year".  Opportunities abound with volatility.  Does get funny though when NGA runs on 2 day old information. That's why it's not exactly our favorite environment but it beats the summer lull.

..up the Bulls sleeve...

Who would've guessed the Bull have so much left up their sleeves?..Actually it's not sleeves, it's their back pocket they seem to have their ammunition packed away in.    It was just last Thursday after that horrible 3rd day, we said in perfect market world a 'rosy picture' would emerge with a little help.  We nominated Paulson and his B- boy.  Looks like we got their coloring book instead, as in the Beige Book to give us that somewhat rosy picture.  Add the Bears getting dizzy at the potential topping out of the bond yields it seems and a rally we go.....

...okay back to what matters in DJIM land...

AIRT, many of us remember this beast. This one used to be on fire, even before fire got the aero sector flying. Today we dragged this air-cargo play after 2 years of nada. The good thing is the float hasn`t changed since many of us traded it back in late `04.  It stands at 2.5mln or so. What got our attention is the EPS this Q.   AIRT has away of making you do some homework as in reporting full year numbers.  When we first saw the .94c for the year, we started subtracting the last 3.  Being the scholars we are, we came up with a seemingly clean.40c+ Q.  Not too shabby for a company with a PE under 15. Backlog looks good too. Potential is something we consider as much as anything else when deciding on a new entry. Potential here is thanks to its history and its potential ability to draw the right crowd.

KHDH, yesterdays late alert at 58.5ish gave us 62 by the close on another nice volume day. If this one is new to you, use the search feature to see our write up on it (DJIM #21). Again, we hope this move gets this discovered further. Interestingly, a few from that weekend write up kept on stretching it out today...RCCC and CUB.

LPHI, still wondering by close if those gapping it this morning realize it pre-announced on the 4th...lol...How else do you explain a buck gap and then nearly a 10% rise.

TNH, traded in a 7pt range providing excellent opportunities for the trader. Finally closed over 100!

DJIM #25 2007

This is definitely a helluva of a start to the summer. The recent scare of back to back to back days of declines leading to last weeks broad rally is volatility at it's best and every traders dream.  It was just on the 14th (3rd day of declines), we said lets all take a chill pill and not act hastily with our books and wait to see who/what puts the bears into the woodshed.  Seemingly, everyday since there has been something to reignite the Bull and his herd.  Friday was the crowning as tepid inflation numbers brought back hopes of better growth to go with it.  If you had the QQQQ on level2 as the CPI came out, you'd think you won the lottery before the open.  An important ingredient to last weeks rally was being prepared.  The only way to do that is having stocks in tow or watch listed to recycle into that were strong to begin with. We think we were definitely ready here at DJIM by having 'strong stocks' as the market finished its tumble.  In DJIM #24, "Even after the tumultuous week there are more than a few DJIM's still trading near highs or making them. These are the stocks we are concentrating on. The partial theme here is to always play strong stocks!. Common sense says a stock that survived last week and finished near highs is a strong stock...".

Included in this list were :         KMGB    LXU    TNH     CUB    RCCC   LPHI     GHM    MA     FWLT 

1 week % performances          21.46    8.16   19.15   4.37  19.73    25.72  10.28   9.80   5.49

Simply all you needed was a healthy dose of DJIM stocks to recycle if need be.  It is so much easier when you have the right watch list without having to seek out what is hot in a fast and furious market. This allows you time to concentrate on trading and getting in early if you were not there already.  Saves time and money.

Beyond the above DJIM stocks that we will continue to stalk, we also had a few names..old and new come to forefront last week...

One of our all time DJIM favorites, MFW was picked up on the hunch they will do something with their cash, well more of a hunch the hedgies will feel that way.

KHDH was one we didn't get much out of recently but oh boy did it show its magic for the last 3 days since alerted $58.5`s. A fast 5 points-8% to the high of Friday.

AIRT, was introduced Thursday $9.60`s area and almost hit $11 at the open the next day before digesting its previous days gap and big percentage day.

SDTH, we just couldn't buy and type fast enough it seems. We started buying the low 5`s and by the time we got the alert out it was 5.30 and then exploded to 6.25 in the next 15 minutes. We said what we saw as angle to this play and soon enough it seems Briefing saw it the same way. Fertilizer and China with earnings.   See their write up posted in Forum by a member. 

AHD MFLO VSNT pretty well round out the play list.

..most importantly today...A Happy Father's Day to our friends here!