TWLL at $14 or lower on pullback

Not all chips are created equal and this is the one we having been following since its earnings bump recently. As much as we like to keep from the techs we have grown to hate, this one offers a slightly different twist. Its one of the few to make it out of Silicon valley and try out the market. A recent Ipo, never a easy thing to trade it showed up on screens with a .15 v .12c Q, nice revenue growth. It pushed quickly to $14's and has since pull backed and now is sitting back at the recent top. The volume has avg 50K a day on this last leg up, a volume kick is all it seems to need for a break. A pullback is even better but I don't know if it will happen first. The difference between the typical chips is of course the float (just over 10MM) plus its specializing in some niche chip markets such as security surveillance, many video toys for cars and not just the very busy LCD TV market. The chart looks good but the sector has to be watched, along with the games ipo houses will play if/when entering into a position.

more TWLL

TWLL note in MC,  looking good into close..volume up from 20k in earlier note..

TWLL profiled last weekend, see below.

Update on Thursday, September 14, 2006 at 06:06PM by Demi/ YourPersonalTrader

Has the Best Buy pin action touched TWLL?..HD-TV bandwagon..LCD'S..Samsung biggest TWLL customer....bring your car into a Best Buy near you and get your TWLL car navigation/toys installed...

DJIM week review/ list #5

If we had a mission statement...the mention in last weekends review of providing the best trading opportunities right here and now is what it would be. No need to throw 50 stocks at anyone, a $2 buck scan will do that...A few choice cuts will do us all good. Last Friday we mentioned FNET, by Monday morning it was at the top of our trading list if you are following. By mid week we had our first 2X here and told of a possible top premarket at $18 following the footsteps of ANGN premarket top at $10 the previous day. Yep, ANGN was provided midday in the mid $7's before a quick 25% run. We will keep these on watch and recycle if we see fit. FNET has a date on the 21st and there should be some action before and after. We don't need to short but if we can explain the possibility of a top and if you can find the shares to short, all the best...RFIL in MC is also an example of sharing a possible top and the reasons we thought the enthusiasm for $10 that evening was not warranted. We didn't exactly say FNET, ANGN was warranted..instead we told you this was clearly, purely in- play. We follow the volume, we don't create it.  Mid- week we finally got to trade a real stock of sorts.....EDU throwing it out on DJIM at $22, ..the rest is history now as it jetted to the $27's. we will keep close watch over it. TWLL an add last weekend played BT's chart to a T...backing up to mid 13's and later in the week breaking out to new highs and a $15+ close on friday. Not all are runners, a few crawlers will do just fine...AMIE at 29+, CETV at $60 here. This is the only diversification we know. Momo stocks and a few crawlers that drag quality earnings along. CPY is another crawler added to the list last week, at these levels care is needed as mentioned before. A few things out of our control, such as oil, big boys chattering it up, a financing knocked a few off close watch. The BTJ's,ALY's...the GRB to a Dgrade, IAAC to a convertible all now struggle beneath the 9ema. That's fine as they provided early profits after mention, plus we found others to trade. We're sure these will come back in the future to the DJIM table as might FNET, ANGN but only later. We want to see IAAC get back to the 9ema before making another move on it. WBD made a quick return to our buy list last week after EPS, so you know we keep many DJIM's around ..they just go to another screen for the corner of the eye. GROW is another one that has come through the DJIM compost quickly. This one makes us a little nervous, maybe its the high perch of #1 on IBD..but its also b/c the latest entry price isn't just below $25 like the first mention here and we don't want to giveaway any of those early trade gains...so keep your eye on it. UIC had a pullback after going $50-55+ here and has trended up again...a break of the recent high will be needed for further attention. We are adding the SYX to the list....we might add another later, check for follow ups to this headline post before the open....Do we need a spinach stock?..Well...we have one we will put up Monday morning if there is still a story. The market was such last week that Baskin Robbins stocks, flavor of the day/week catch on quickly, most likely this will continue..If you pull up the charts you will see our DJIM highlighted all trade over the 9ema. If any of them break this moving average on good volume it's a good guess we won't be following it for a bit and probably sold if we had it in our book.

Valuation blah blah

We had a stock(AIRM) that received 3 valuation downgrades over a week or two earlier this year, we stuck to it and watched it climb higher and higher. Today one Dgrade on valuation even has a tgt price increase in CSH and there is another based on valuation to hold on TWLL by needy Needham...on the other hand they just initiated GRB($14) with a $18 target after it just got dropped down by Sidoti...good timing... Just a game isn't it?....everybody likes a pullback to pick up on the cheap. You have no control over when they start to chat, just another reason to always take some off the table when a price/volume opportunity presents itself like yesterday in TWLL after a quick 20% trip. Good thing is TWLL is a recent IPO with 4 other houses that might step in on any selling to serve their own interests.

TWLL, Techwell, Inc.

TWLL profiled September 10th on DJIM http://djmarkets.squarespace.com/journal/2006/9/10/twll-at-14-or-lower-on-pullback.html  .......put in another solid EPS. That's right...re-visit, recycle DJIM EPS stocks. We added as it showed strength throughout the day and made a move on its all time highs late in the day. The record volume, excellent close bode well for further action. Last Q had 2 straight days of a move after EPS.(beginning of Aug.).

2pm chart just before move and DJIM buy in. Volume was 300K+, it doubled the last 2 hours!

*mentioned premarket, late in the day at Market chat

DJIM hold/ hit list wk #12.....incl. BRLC PVA SINA TWLL RVBD

Market is still going through a consolidation phase, and it still means that the priority for us is the capital preservation.    However, it doesn't mean that we'll be shying away from good trading opportunities, and it'd be irresponsible if we don't trade them.      What we at DJIM here stress is that in a time like this, we'd only trade what we think are the best of the best setups and leave the iffy ones alone.    We also do keep our trading time frame per play to a conservative level where we'd take profit on small increments, a $1/point here and there and not get carried away with big positions on any one stock.   We can't wait for 25%+ DJIM benchmark these days, so taking 5 -10% quickly is fine with us.  This style is definitely more difficult to trade compared to riding a few big winners that can offset any small losses from other trades.   We are literally trying to basically do with only the most probable plays, with the least risk.   This comes in the form of stocks with a earnings base for DJIM.  We've heard that many traders around various chat room, blogs surprisingly under performed in October.  We're not sure the path they have taken but we've taken/followed the uptrend path here at DJIM.   Well, unfortunately this game isn't an easy business so only time can tell whether one is cut out to do this for a living, or not.    Here are some recent plays...

The week provided some nice intraday trades off our extended trading thread...CASM, LMRA back to back days in Market Chat.  The first 3 below were mentioned in pre market yesterday. The market survived the eco numbers and some of these provided nice entries off earnings.

TWLL....     This one gave us a little surprise late afternoon as it came on with strong volume and then some follow through, finishing with a NCH.   The earning action definitely looks very strong and we think it may catch some attention around the trading circle.  See more below on TWLL.

BRLC..surprisingly this one traded down to $7.01 after multiple upgrades, a healthy price target of $14 by BMurray after beating estimates handily....7c vs.1 c estimate, revenues climbed 3x.      How this one is going to trade is still remaining to be seen.    Usually when it gaps up like that with that kind of volume, you'd see some more upside down the road.

SINA beat by .5, upped revenue G, multiple price upgrades in the morning and then closes gap to Thursdays close before EPS. That was a Friday morning gift to have a stock with so many positives only trade 1% higher in the morning.  If stocks that beat by .5, raise guidance and only move 1% up, we'd be out of the trading business real fast.!.  We'd be happy with a test of $30 here. The first two might have the better upside in the near term as far as collecting points, profits.

MR, stock had another nch(new closing high) on Friday and we are very encouraged by its action.   This stock is due to release its earning on Nov. 16th and we think there's going to be a pre-earning run-up play.     In last week's DJIM #11, we discussed the further play we were looking for after selling. Monday was a further drop and soon we were sitting on the 9ema ready for another move up.

PVA ..a  O&G/coal.....started to watch closely Thursday off earnings ($1.21 v 1.06). More below on Penn Virginia Cp.

BTJ, it seems a lot of the oil service stocks are perking up lately, there is always something to fuel it..yesterday was one of those days.  This one also made it to IBD100 as #19.   See last weeks DJIM wk #11 for our buy in below $16 , the play we were looking for and got Friday.   We are keeping an eye on ALY as well.

EDU, Chinese stocks immune to the pullback?  Perhaps!   We are certainly seeing strength in many of the Chinese stocks on our trading list.

RVBD, this is one of the techs that broke out on Friday, one of the few techs that are standing out in our opinion. We still can't decide between the APKT, RVBD, DIVX...IPO's.... all we know is they provide plenty of trading opp's at this time, figuring out which will be the champ longer term is anyone's guess. Right now..there is a new champ every week in this IPO tech game.

Speaking of champs, we threw out ATNI at the open mid week ...she was a champ going from $21 area to $24 for many DJIM readers in a few days. We took a lot off near $24 as it seemed a bit tired late in the week. The numbers look great and we look for more out of ATNI. This is a relatively unknown stock, we hope and by the early volume off earnings we think this may be on a few trading lists soon.

RIMM,APH,UCTT round out our lists.  As per BT's charts, ACOR proved it couldn't handle its weight. Looks like many were expecting something out of the CC to fuel it. It didn't happen and many sold off. Still we'll keep this one around DJIM and hope for a news spark.

SYNL, EML are two DJIM profiled quality EPS crawlers..these are for the ones that like their sleep.

So, it seems that we have quite a few new plays on our hand after cleaning house late October. We are basically trying to play the best setups and again keeping our time frame short.   Until the market mood improves or we get a great earnings winner, this is the way we are going to be trading.

Was SNCR 40% better?

Not really...but it gives a good lesson.. a reminder of what we do with eps reports.

As it turned out, a heads up on APKT and SNCR together before earnings last night proved to be quite the example . Simply..we believe that the best money management is not holding into these calls.....Isn't just easier to recognize a good report, most importantly one that the market is happy with and go from there.  We also don't believe in chasing until the volume/trend tells us enough. Take yesterdays premarket notes on FTEK, BVX.   If you chase too early, you might end up on the wrong horse.    Back to holding into earnings..... Waking to a 20% drop in APKT or buying SNCR early, say low $11's and watching it go up another 10+%?....which will it be?.   Just like TWLL, SNCR was introduced early on the DJJournal...congrats to those that have held through after doing enough DD to realize these are more than short term trading tools. DJIM goal is to find this combination, a quality tradeable company with earnings. Something that attracts and fits, both the trader and longer term investor. 

If the trend continues, APKT will go through the same exercise DIVX and to a lesser extent RVBD has gone through.   We expect to see APKT back on the DJIM trading block very soon, maybe even tomorrow..lol