DJIM 1st Edition, 2007

First of all, we'd like to wish every one of our DJIM members a Happy New Year.     As we are kicking off this new year with our first DJIM weekend edition, we'd also like to thank each one of our members for their continued support of DJIM and making it a very unique and special place to be.

Toward the end of last week, we had a little pullback from some of the momentum favourites from the early part of the week, especially Friday from Thursdays runners. We'd think it has had a lot to do with the fact we were heading into this weekend with a 4 day rest, and also the fact that some of those runners just had a way too big of a run-up in such a short period of time.  This was actually widespread come Friday in the markets.   As you are familiar with us, you know we've been very vocal and adamant about taking profits. This is especially true starting off the year, as it is now about 'new' points and adding them up through 2007.   Some of these plays such as FFHL GROW, just cannot continue their run-up without pauses, assuming they are still in play.    Nothing goes straight up, so bear that in mind, we take profits as the play pauses.     If we don't take profits when they pause, we might be looking at a 10 to 15% pullback and a very useless alert that was once very profitable.  This is very common when dealing with small caps and momentum plays.    Because we never assign any artificial price target or predict long term direction, we never have to worry about catching the top, nor we have to worry about making a perfect trade.    What we are really trying to achieve here,  is to capture every trading opportunity that is presented to us, early, and sometimes very very early!     When you start trading those potential 25%+ gainers early, you are almost ensured some good gains even if your trading skill isn't as experienced as some of the others.   In time though, the more trading you do, a more improved trader you'll  become and better you'd be at mastering this game.

here are some stocks of interest from last week.....

FFHL, in our opinion, this play last week really highlighted what DJIM is sometimes all about, catching the momo early and often.  Most of you have seen it through 2004-2006.  A couple of these plays a year, if attacked properly can make your entire year or at least give you a nice cushion to trade/invest off.    This is not saying that we'd be getting a play like this every week, but when it comes, we'd be there first to give members a heads up.    From the look of its action near the end of the week, we'd be looking for another entry point next week.   At this point, we are looking for $17.50 as potential b/o point with good volume for a possible entry.   So you'd ask why not buy it now if we think it's gonna go back to mid $17s?   The point is, we don't know when it'll happen or if it's going to happen.  Last week, we couldn't wait for the entry we were looking for as all the stars lined up at a lower price.   We just want to make sure when it happens, with a crystal clear sign, we'd be there and play it again.   Judging by its prior move, when it moves, it just doesn't settle for a buck or two.     At this point, we don't want to risk anything and only want to play the "sure" or "high probability" money.   This can be either viewed as stubbornness or discipline, but we just like to think of it as a smart way to play these momo stocks.

HMIN, this one gave us a good pop last week and it looks like it wants to consolidate for a bit.   Unlike FFHL, we think HMIN is definitely a more legit play which has alot more staying power.    You can say that HMIN is a pure China economy play and we like the sound of it.   As long as the trend is pointing up and shows no sign of reversing, we'd be buying on dips.

The Asian markets, ones that are open today were hitting new highs today. The Shanghai(China) is closed but the chance it might play a little catch up is probable when it opens. In this case, DJIMS Pacific-Asia stocks like the above and JST, MR, EDU still might catch a bid early tomorrow.

FSYS, the increase in volume last week, and with corresponding price action, caught us with a slight surprise and we are definitely giving it more attention in the coming days.  

Most DJIM stocks you can review in charts are in the 'hub', they've flown long haul and now are back on the ground waiting for a flight plan to continue on. Basically, most have seen some distribution, profit taking yet look no worse off as most are near their highs.  It is best we let the market find a remedy for the hangover from late 2006.  In the meantime, we will seek out new plays if these are not ready to lift off again.

No time to blink...

Despite the fact this kind of market action smells like holiday trading, it is still the kind of profitable trading environment that we absolutely cannot ignore.   So what if this sort of action only lasts till the end of this week?   Given what we've gone through the last month and half, it's about time we take some from the market.     It's true that this sort of action does not change the overall picture, but do we really care at this point?    We can spend endless hours debating what the overall picture may look like but it's more practical to get down to the nitty gritty of things and take advantage of what's given to us and make the best out of it.     In all honesty, someone can probably make enough returns last couple of days and next couple of days to call it a year.     The point is that we simply have to treasure what's happening out there and really take advantage of the situation.     When market is in a good mood, we'd always forget how tough the market is during the rough times.     The bottom line, we can't take this rally for granted and we really have to do good on our part.    Lets get right down to business...

GROW +11.8% JSDA +6.7%, it's important to note that selling is just as important as buying when it comes to trading these type of momentum stocks.    We are not here to debate the future prospect of each company and we are simply trying to give our play-book here on how we make the most of these plays here.    A rosy market coupled with a good close with those momentum names usually give a high probability that they'd act good the next day.    One unknown that we always have to deal with is if the stock goes up next day, "how high will it go and when do we sell?"   If you treat stock trading as much as a game as we do here, the decision is much easier.     To us, it's not about how much profit we should take, it's all about what we should be doing as a right move or wrong move, much like a game of chess.    We sold quite a bit earlier and the price is no where near the day high.   Why?   We wanted to close out yesterday's play that was intended for this mornings pop.   We get it and we closed it.   It's something we've been doing for a long while and it's more of an automatic habit and it's always been in our playbook.   If these stock withstood the early selling, and market keeps on rolling with no sign of weakness, then we buy a little bit back, usually at a higher price than we sold at.     Well, this is how we trade and every little bit of surge we'd just add a bit more.     Closing would provide an important clue as to where these stocks may go tomorrow and today's no exception.     We are holding some overnight and we'll repeat the same process for tomorrow with a smaller amount.  One thing... after getting a 5%+ open is when/if you decide to buy again as we did today, do not let that first 5% slip away. Simply..don't let your additional buys during the day slip into the red. Just call it a day and leave with the original 5%+ gain.  We noted early yesterday we'd be looking at GROW later and noted our add.  This open action is what we were planning for and it happened to script.

HOT ,+3% where OEH is taking a rest from the endless downgrades, HOT is taking over as the new takeover target in town.   Guess what?  They are in the same biz too.    This just tells us that this sector is hot and we can't afford to write off OEH either as it behaved really well in spite of a downgrade from a major firm.

CYNO, we think stock is ready to challenge high and given the shortened week and "light" volume trading according to other gurus, anything goes.

SMCI, do we like the close? No!  Is this the end of the world? No!  Did you all get weak hands and sell?..lol.   Hey, we're not here to judge anyones style.  We can't blame anyone taking up to a dollar profit on our lead.  We are adding this one to our daily watchlist and as well onto our long positions.   Other than the fact this one is a relatively new stock with good growth, we feel it has potential.   One thing is we don't load up as others with subscriptions for days and then let their readers get the remains before they unload their batch on you.  You are never far off our entries, especially in time and many times will get a better price if you are a little patient. Still depending on your experience some DD is essential before entering into a position.

CIMT, finally, we threw in this little speculative cheapie into the mix at 3.80's.   Sometimes plays take some time to materalize, this could be one of them.  They reported a profitable quarter recently and news they are expanding office in China got some traders excited, including us.    Who knows, given its float just under 3mln, the special holiday trading week, the China effect, this one may turn out to be the best holder for us. AH 4.23.

This is the Briefing write up in mid-march. We're guessing they will follow up very sooooon on this if CIMT continues up..."CIMT is trading up 122% following the co's early morning earnings report that showed CIMT's first full year of profitability after several years of losses. Specifically, CIMT reported Q4 EPS of $0.07 vs -$0.22 in 4Q05 and revs that rose 11% YoY to $6.0 mln (no estimates). FY06 EPS was $0.07 vs -$0.59 in 2005... CIMT is a small Israel-based co that provides design software tools for manufacturing, toolmaking and N.C. Programming. The co's CAD/CAM (computer-aided design/computer-aided manufacturing) products are used by mold, tool and die makers as well as manufacturers of discrete parts... The co said its business and financial results reflect the turnaround of the last two years, in which it focused on new product development and reorganization of its global sales and marketing force. In addition to being a developing earnings story, CIMT could be viewed as a China play, as the co said its Chinese subsidiary achieved 80% revenue growth in 2006. CIMT also noted that the Chinese market is its fastest growing target market, and they continue to invest and expand operations there... Although the stock is seeing decent volume of 267K shares on today's move, CIMT is normally pretty illiquid, with average daily volume of only 2.8K shares. Also adding to the momentum is the stock's small float of only 2.7 mln shares... Mkt cap: $20.5 mln"

Some other DJIM stocks did extremely well and/or closed well include...

NIHD hit 78.50's  WBD hit 86  AMAG up 3.3%  BW hit 52.70's  OYOG.hit 78. CSV nch

Last night we said we thought we had you in the right stocks , today was the pudding

DJIM #15 2007

A premise here has been our belief that the markets will be solid going into another earning season, a market has little chance of crashing through the floor before the companies get a chance to tell their side of the story. The correction has been literally wiped away and the recent retracement to the 100ma averages has seen a healthy bounce as we enter Q2.  Last week was one for the books as a number of plays here enjoyed breakaway gains..WBD, JSDA, GROW, MFW.  Isn't interesting that these are all earning plays at one time or another on DJIM. We also had nice moves from AMAG,OYOG.  Plus the solars TSL,ASTI, FSLR..we talked about last weekend as a possibility for the week made for some nice trades.  Sometimes the strong get stronger and it is more apparent in a bullish trend such as we enjoyed last week.  Simply, this was a case of recycling which is a big part of our trading methodology. Speaking of recycling, a few names popped back into our books here on Thursday and they include DJIM stocks from January in MTRX and USAP, both previous earning gem winners.

We'll concentrate on Thursday additions...

MTRX, announce an excellent Q with an upside to guidance. Last Q this was pick up at 16+ and was as steady as they come. Not a big flyer it survived every pit the market would throw at it, including a sliding Oil price and it still held ground. We expected MTRX to trade as the previous earning day, but it performed much better than expected as the institutions did not churn it as before. The guidance was the key this time around as it put on gains throughout the day finishing strong.

...beats by $0.07, issues upside guidance (21.41 ) : Reports Q3 (Feb) earnings of $0.24 per share, $0.07 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.17; revenues rose 41.1% year/year to $168.7 mln vs the $136.5 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for FY07, sees FY07 revs of $630-640 mln, up from previous guidance of $560-580 mln, vs. $588.92 mln consensus.  CEO says, "Our third quarter performance significantly exceeded our expectations as we were able to add to our strong talent pools in the construction services groups allowing us to capture and execute more projects, particularly in the Downstream Petroleum Industry."

USAP, a darling from last Q with first buy in at 36+. This maker of speciality steel products including Aerospace and power industries is in the right space at the right time.  We think it is just a matter of hours before we see USAP take on the February highs of 51.80 and go forward and so we added it back. FWIW...Cramer was bullish on his lighting bolt seg March 7th as well.

SPEC, this one gapped off earning March 30th, ( Q1 EPS of $0.16 vs $0.02 in yr ago period; revs $32.9 mln vs $25.6 mln in yr ago period ). Sequentially, this was in line with Q4EPS and with 99 94 IBD numbers it is seeking $15 from the IBD crowd.

Speaking of IBD... How about SYNL and EML, #13 and #85 this weekend for these two DJIM finds from 2006 and last Q. Guess they added their volume together to stick them finally on IBD100.  A note about EML, Friday there was a note on Dept of Defense new armoured vehicle program. Big contracts will come in 07 as this program expands and AH(Armor Holding) gets EML do quite a bit of the work. 

TNH, Terra Nitrogen (nitrogen fertilizer products). 93c Q announced in February. It has been a great trade for sometime due to its volatility. It is one to be traded with care. We added on the dip Thursday and it recovered and flirted with new day highs by close. Made a NCH on a very good volume day(top 5 this year). Guess this is a Ag play as it grows what we eat,  but it is tied to the price of natural gas, it is more than 60% of its expenses. So know what's going on in that end.

As great as the recycling program can be, it does not stop us from looking forward and having cash available to go strong after a new batch of earning plays. We have a growing play list after last week, but we think the bigger money can be made in new picks coming up and so enter this Q with plenty of cash on hand.  Also, if we were holding any laggards at this point, we would simply dump here and avoid waiting for a sunny day with anything stalled and just free up more cash to use on new plays.

If you need reminding, here is a list of some of the stocks we traded here last Q off earning... USAP CCF VTRU VARI MTRX SYNL EML HDNG CYNO TRT HURC TRCR TGX NWK AVZA CSV.   Get it?  Opportunities will be there!

It starts with RIMM and VIP this week as far as past DJIM earning plays.  If you missed it, we've talked about VIP being a play before earning on the heels of MBT report  here on the Journal. So watch it closely this week for a pre-earning reaction. A few notable Russian funds were up over 3% last week, maybe it wasn't all WBD holdings;), but a sign of things to come for DJIM Russian names.

Also, the earning dates link waits for your participation on earning dates for DJIM plays when found.

DJIMstocks.com Alerts blooming in April..

What are DJIM Alerts-Comments?. They are up to the minute "leads' to members available on our site or via email delivery. These are stocks we are closely watching for a trade, a heads up of sorts and ones we have just bought.  This section is mostly for the trader during market hours and those who are familiar with the DJIM trading methodology and the stocks from our nightly Journal.  We only send out 'only' 1-3 Alerts-Comments a day, which some days includes some of our plays for a next day move.  In the evening, we follow up in our nightly Journal blog on most of the activity that day in regards to our buys/ play listed stocks.

Here are a few examples of the DJIM Alerts-Comments feed in the first two weeks of April.

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JSDA, this was not first week we issued some timely alerts on JSDA. The latest was with this Thursday morning note with JSDA around $24 with our ready trigger fingers...

Apr 12, 2007 at 10:53AM ." Everyone seems to waiting on JSDA/9ema break yesterday,ibd mention today. We're waiting for volume to re-enter".

Apr 12, 2007 at 03:48PM    "we noted JSDA early and is our only add this afternoon/today.

Friday the 13th, JSDA exploded for another 10% and a AH's price in the high $28's

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UXG, rallied Friday to a high of $6.79 before closing up 16.2%

UXG was a DJIMstocks buy alert a few days before in premarket at $5.60's." UXG, a gold stock w/ results yesterday. Not a one day story we think, will look to buy dips here and there..bot some premkt 5.60's.for a first try"  Apr 11, 2007 at 09:27AM

The night before the BIG move, we noted UXG in our nightly Journal blog. ".....quickly climbed to over $6 at the open and a a quick 6-7% for the flippers here.  Well, we actually did some of that and as we said we will look to buy the dips, which we did later again.  Having some gold rather than the Nasdaq stuff seemed like a better idea later in the day.  We are traders and if we get 6-7% in the first 10minutes, we will take it.  It finds itself there over $6 in AH's today and we think it goes higher..."

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MFW,  a DJIM stock buy in and closely followed stock since $26-28 area.  An Alert was issued on Apr 5, 2007 at 09:41AM...

"MFW, Harland deal news last night seems to be liked".   This lead was issued with 4300 shares in the books with the price around $52.   The stock spiked to $61 high that day with volume of 1.8mln and biggest play of the day as strong momentum came to this closely followed stock by DJIM readers.  A possible 8-9 pts in one day or 15%+

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DNDN, we were prepared the night of DNDN news to play it the next day!.".....we'll most likely take a position with some funny money as in a $2 ticket at the races.  Its all about being at the show, like the Kentucky Derby and not about winning.  This is the fun of trading, you could really make some money but you must be prepared for every other possibility. This won't be a one day trade, so once in it's probably better to stick through the jumpy action. "

The next morning we were there from the start, Mar 30, 2007 at 07:24AM , issuing an alert as it traded in the $16's saying it will probably hit the $19 high. Well...it did for those wanting a quick trip.  For those buying the jumpy action and buying the idea of this being not a one day trade and holding through has paid big time as DNDN has traded over $25.

"DNDN up and running already, high of 19, now 16.60..will probably hit high again premkt..
Probably surprised a few getting up with halt released so early ..so the chasers will most likely be in bloom come 8am or so "

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GROW, Apr 2, 2007 at 01:42.  First we issued an Alert in the morning that included. "Oh yeah and potentially for a piece of GROW later" and then another that we  "also added GROW here" at 03:52PM with the stock around $28 for a breakout play.

We got a nice move the next day and then on 7 million shares the following day GROW shot to a nickel short of $35 and we were all there with our readers for a potential 25% move in 2 trading days!!

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TSL,  Apr 3, 2007 at 02:36PM,ALERT..."We've bot TSL mid 46's and will add if it gets to 48's "

          Apr 4, 2007 at 10:25AM , ALERT.."as per yesterday buy note of TSL, we've added more here in 48's "

           Apr 9, 2007 at 11:47AM ,ALERT..TSL,remember that block of 50k or so asking at $49.80? it's gone now and the march is on. We added on the break of $50 .    The next day TSL hit a high of 56.94 and on April traded up to $59. A potential 10 or more points as we took our readers through our TSL buys.

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WBD, a DJIM followed buy since September came back to our books recently in our weekend update March 28 and then alerted again the 29th.-

Mar 29, 2007 at 03:49PM-ALERT, WBD, mentioned this weekend in DJIM list. Earnings are very good and no usual sell off has happened. Looking for confirmation, might come soon over $79 to take a piece.

In 3 trading days, WBD shot up to $86+ . Another 6 point potential play in a few days!

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See preview section 2006 for the set up inside DJIMstocks.com.  (navigation bar to the left).

Above is some of the action you'll find available inside DJIMstocks.com member section.  Many more plays inside including those from our fellow traders in our daily message board forum.  For those into technical analysis/charts or wanting to take a class, we have our plays regularly updated by an experienced chartist, who just picked off a beautiful move in ASTI this week!

 Happy Trading!