Expectations rising...

Coming off an overnight low of 1255 ES,  ‘dip buyers’ came in for an impressive ~20pt reversal as investor sentiment was bolstered once again by ‘stronger than consensus’  eco’ data, notably ‘jobs’, ADP numbers on the heels of initial claims last week.  Higher revisions to GDP likely once again..  In all, as concluded yesterday… "..any further broad market hiccup would be buying situations".

Wary- Never hurts for watchful prudence in the markets, even when all is seemingly hunky -dory. Heightened expectations for NFP # now, consensus moving up to approx.. 200+.  If it doesn’t come in 200+K, markets holiday party might be curbed.

Shadowlist

• Momentum/earnings/“winners of ‘10 –  the star of the day goes to recent list add, BSFT +14%  as it fed of all things 4G related coming out of 'CES Vegas’.   This one is ‘nutcase’, so it’s all about entry timing. (eg.9ema).  Newsflow is driving the group as a noted possibity to start the week…QCOM/ATHR marriage, RIMM pushing higher on Playbook unveilings.  Small caps-Software/networking stocks act very all. (APKT CRM FTNT ).   Addition to list: CAVM, this one could have been added easily last year, but there were enough names to trade.
• Commodities -  Nothing new to add here. Even with a precious metals, some base metals in a higher USD environment the Ag’s-Coals outperforming.  LNN,, pushed higher early ~4% to recent gap before fading some.
• Consumer -  Retail numbers in focus Thursday, hopefully wakes up group for some trading oppy. 
• Financials - streak continues after a day off (BKX >3% YTD)

..a full table

Due to ‘better than expected eco’ data’ in US/ Europe the past few weeks the market is quietly worrying about ‘easy money’ being cut off following in the footsteps of China.   This was first evident in the Precious metals sell off / strengthening USD post hotter Euro inflation number this week as it raised concerns of ECB hiking before Q4.  The US escaped this by FOMC minutes this week as ‘no end’ to QE2 was signalled, but a lot has occurred since meeting in the way of US data points.  On Friday, it is not only the NFP# that might be a market mover, but maybe more importantly, Bernanke coming in front of the Senate at 930am that will put the QE2 issue at the forefront. 

Wary- 1) Bernanke any sign of ‘hawkish’ remarks (any signs of QE2 not being entirely fulfilled).

 2) NFP#- a big beat (1 forecast 400+) will likely cause QE2 fear ending sooner than 6mths.  This may result in a note here from late Dec….” Starting to think the way to derail this rally and correct……In this scenario, the market rallies off a good catalyst, but it becomes evident there is no conviction force behind it and the rally peters out.  Something to watch for later.” . 

 3) Heightened expectations for NFP # now, 200k is whisper (consensus 170K). If # below ~160, it may disappoint and cause selling.  November revisions will also be in focus.

Positive-   reporting season is around the corner and that may cause Shorts from being too aggressive in laying out exposure if things don’t go the Bulls way with the above.

Shadowlist

• Momentum/earnings/“winners of ‘10 –  Outperformed again as Software, clouds ,networking stocks work. RVBD  new high, FFIV  looks to be setting up and CAVM  popped another 5-6% intraday.
• Commodities -  Once again Ag’s/Chems do well led by a big POT  day.   USD strength/ Euro technical breakdown.. 1.26 next??? is an issue. If this continues it will likely begin to curb all commodity linked groups not affected yet.  “Rare”  stuff got a beating as reports Japan got more of the stuff last year than was expected.
• Consumer - a pretty big disappointment (off >1%) on same store sales.
• Financials - off 1%, mostly on downgrades in Banks.  Overall Financials are coming up to technical resistance of note.

DJIM #3 2011

Despite another sell on the report by INTC following in the footsteps of AA +  another RRR hike by China, the market as a whole somehow managed to put in a decent green day on Friday.  A bit of a head scratcher, but more likely a move in part due to… .”As important or more today was the ‘speculation’ of Monday’s European Finance meeting and an expansion of the bailout fund to get the market going”(last week).  Nothing will be finalized Mon/Tues, but expectation is all sides will leak their intentions on the issue heading into an early February summit.   As long as there is progress, the market should be fine.  If not, watch out.  Watch Euro, you don’t want a sell off in it.

All in,  the attention will shift to earnings as the flow pick- ups in the upcoming week and individual stocks selection begins away from the broader market.  We're officially into 2H January where the quiet period for corp's/govt ends as holiday cheer subsides.  AAPL pulled the first such release this weekend.

Shadowlist

• Momentum/earnings/“winners of ‘10–   The SOX strength has been noted here on a daily basis and INTC’s guide for capex guide fueled the SOX, notably the equipment makers (KLAC types).   Sorry, but getting excited over lagging equipment makers is not in these cards going forward.   The sole DJIM beneficiary was recent addition CAVM, which made a new high to $46.  The momo’s/winners await earnings as discussed.  AAPL FFIV coming up.
• Commodities-  All focus here has been the Ag’s/Ferts’ and despite another RRR hike, the group outperformed (MOS CF up~3%) once again.   Also as warned post ACI report, the coals weakened ANR WLT - off 6-7%.