DJIM #1 2011

Instead of a recap of 2010 as everywhere you see this weekend, let’s get down to business as if January 3rd is any other day during the trading year.   No sombre violin playing for the Bears/ Shorts for the futile year they had and no Party like it’s 1999 by Prince celebrations for being on the ‘right side’ in 2010.   Yes,  2010 turned out to be the year of the momo/ growth stocks, which at end are cited as the ‘winners’ of 2010.   All in, just go back to DJIM Shadowlist in January/ February to see if the SPX 500 top 20/best performers ( FFIV, NFLX, PCLN, CRM CMI WYNN ARUN AZO CLF ) were amongst the 40/50 or so stocks in the DJIM composite at the beginning of 2010!.  Add later DJIM additions being involved in M&A this past year such as (BUCY, NZ, CML )  and the list dwindles some more for stocks to trade in 2011 as we can't expect repeat performances from the majority above.   That’s the beauty of a fresh trading year, new stocks and new sector groups emerging!

As far as the last week,  the notion to start the week of China hike offsetting any US market window dressing played out as the SPX was never more than 1pt up or down on any days close. (~1257-1259 close range).  Very  slow profit taking continued in the ‘winners’ growth stocks right into the final hours of December.  Sometimes it’s not what you trade from reading the Journal every morning, it’s what you don’t trade that keeps your accounts in check.  The potential lag in these higher beta stocks is something we covered here from the start of December.  Also, the flow instead trickled into Banks (BKX >15%) and other laggards (economic sensitive) as a product of investor confidence right into year end.    All in, as discussed we were no putting much into anything last week due to an illiquid market…incl..(SPX1260 “R”, no conviction after excellent eco’ data.). 

Mid –week,  we put focus back on Ag’ and related stocks/sub groups and an outlook for a China PMI that if ‘cooling’ to potentially wake up the market.  The number came out this weekend and it cooled off 1.3% from November.  A good start with US ISM on deck for Monday.  Other things to watch, the sluggish December for tech sector may finally get some newsflow starting with the Vegas CES (6th-9th) and possible pre-announcements into earnings season.  Casino Macau numbers out Monday/Retail and Auto later in the week.  NFP# out on Friday, add of +135 is the consensus.  Many major markets closed on Monday, incl. UK, CHINA, Canada, Australia leaving only money flow into US through the book door and thus a possible good start to 2011.

Back door

A nice way to kick off ’11, but still something to be wary of as the 1^st trading day in 09/’10 produced even better results.  Still, despite the >6% rally of December the market hadn’t seen a >1% day since the first days of that month.  As pointed out last week, all the ‘illiquid’ action was irrelevant in respect to inability to cross SPX 1260 “R” and not seeing conviction off eco data to help for that to occur. Today, 1260 was crossed easily as the market rode to 1276 highs until volumes fell off later in the day.

• Catalysts- as noted last week watch for a China PMI, if lower M/M it may wake up the market on ‘coolin’ factors. Importantly, inflation sub group of number fell 7 pts.  Also, Euro/US ISM came in strong signalling a synchronized global acceleration.  The ‘back door’ flow helped as well with most global markets closed.

Shadowlist

• Momentum/earnings/ winners of ‘10 – woke up,  led by an article saying FFIV >3%  RVBD >7% APKT >9% were M&A targets spread to traders chasing other higher beta names for first time in a month.
• Commodities-   Although Ag’s links lost steam after 3 days late in the day, the analysts are raising estimates/tgts on names as we had been looking for.  AGU  on Friday, today MOS (reports Tues.).  Coals , WLT, CLF >4% outperforming on Australian floods.  Steels  should also benefit from floods.  Precious metals, copper rolled over in PM. The ‘rare’ metals stepped up again as Dahlman Rose following in their own footsteps with another outrageous target of >80 on MCP >15%(did this with AUMN late last year, a gold stock we had up). AVL up >20%, REE >6%.   Looking further into OSN, it’s actually a nice growth stock with a ‘Rare’ connection, but notably a ‘steel’ stock that has to do with every China infrastructure aspect from highways to railways etc.  It’s also cheap and a fresh IPO importantly.  Still, it has issues as little China co’ are being exposed to fraud noise since December.  Everything else like CHGS CDII is definitely considered ‘junkyard dogs’ stuff here. 
• NCH's- GTLS, JOYG, VMW, ROVI, HOLI, QLIK, ARB ARUN are just more Shadows putting in new highs intraday.
• Financials- continuing December streak into earnings,  GS  breaking out
• Consumer- Casino  sub group had very good Macau numbers and WYNN  finally got over 105.

Don’t pay much attention / trading decisions based on Global markets, thus the ES to start the day as most markets will be playing ‘catch –up’.  SPX 1280 as next ‘R”

RUT of a day..

A few things to be wary of heading into today’s trade played out.  One was not getting overzealous off the 1st day rally as it’s been the case the past 2 years, this coincides with not chasing the open based on Global markets that would be up playing ‘catch-up’ and finally, the real market ‘noise’ today was the steep rollover continuation of…”..Precious metals, copper rolled over in PM”,  down 3% on the day.   The open was the high 1274SPX and it was all downhill to last week’s highs for ‘dip buyers’ to come in.   The 1260-1263 support might be thin ice as it was generated through the ‘illiquid’ holiday market, so 1254 might the real support test (approx.between 9ma -20ma gauge).  The probability of a need to test 1254 is due to a wary and it wasn't the precious metals selling.

• Wary-  the ‘big’ underperformance today of the “RUT”, which had been the leader during December’s grind higher.  Something to watch, but, maybe just a natural performance spread narrowing between RUT/SPX. Interestingly, the Shadowlist which is comprised of mostly smaller caps held up much better(with reason).

Shadowlist

• Momentum/earnings/“winners of ‘10 –  held up (reason) due to anticipation of “CES Vegas” and possible news flow.
• Commodities-  Our list unaffected by the steep commodity ($CRX) decline due to our focus on AG’s/ Coals (75% AUS. Mines halted).  Favorites in the groups such as MOS, POT, CF, CLF> 4%, WLT  all outperformed. LNN (irrigation) >4% had a noticable bid to any dip.  MOS’s earnings AMC should generate more of the sector upgrades we’ve been noting.
• Consumer-  WYNN, LVS  >3-4% continued to move off…(Casino sub group had very good Macau numbers and WYNN finally got over 105)

All in, the trading notables off our list held up with reasons, any further broad market hiccup would be buying situations.

DJIM #2 2011

As 1280 invokes ‘R’ for the past week, the market impulsively sells off here and will continue to find an excuse to take some profits.   On Friday, it was something completely immaterial in the ‘big picture’.(Mass. Foreclosure ruling).  Does any investor in Europe/ China give a damn and/or make an investing decision based on such with Sovereign debt/Inflation questions unresolved, respectively?  The answer is definite no-no, but in the US markets it’s reason enough to test 1260 support again!.    What was relevant and material was a weaker than hoped for NFP# , but a justifying Bernanke keeping QE2 ‘ alive and on track’  was much more important and offset the #.  If anything, the jobs number calls for QE3.  As far as the tape during the midday antics, it looked more ETF/ES driven as single stocks (exc. Financials/Banks), hardly twitched in either direction.  Indication is holders of stock are reluctant to sell as much as they are reluctant to buy more. 

Technical-  1256SPX 20ma (DJIM Benchmark for a few years now) is in focus and if broken will likely lead to a correction as shorts may finally lay out some exposure.  As per ‘RUT’ of a day'  post last week, the RUT has now lagged the SPX for consecutive weeks and could be foreshadowing ‘tiredness’ for the rest of the market.

Tailwinds – (potential) Q4 earnings should come in better than Q3.  Shorts are not laying out positions ahead of potential train/ minimizing downside for now.

Headwinds- wary- (potential) US markets oblivious to rising Contagion noise again.  A case of shrugging it off or complacency at work?.  Looks like complacency in this view.

Shadowlist

• Momentum/earnings/“winners of ‘10–   Entered the week looking for newsflow from CES Vegas and it definitely was the ‘Buzz’ of the week.(SOX >3%). Leading stocks CRM ARUN RVBD FFIV , >6-9% on week…”..Dec 30^th….” further gains likely into the front half of January with individual 'leading' equities catching up..” As far pre-announcements, no major names, but a slew of mid cap types warned.
• Commodities- USDA reports mid-week to possibly feed Ag space some more. 
• Consumer- WYNN >14%, LVS>8%  continued the weeks move off Friday’s Tier1 positive comments …Turning point was early in week...(Casino sub group had very good Macau numbers and WYNN finally got over 105).
• Financials - 2 day of selling, European unresolved peripheral stresses should continue to bring money flow here.  Foreclosure noise will persist.

DJIM #13 2011

Last week's 2.74% SPX recovery rise is pretty well summarized last Journal.  Friday’s action did not nothing to deter from the trading premise here with tech earnings being the missing link in a move higher post consolidation early in the week.  The ease the market broke through 1314 ‘R’ in early trading  before wavering some in the afternoon makes you think it’s just a question of time before we test February highs. There’s a cluster of “R’ around 1313-1319, but once a close occurs over, the market will have higher sights in mind and it should happen this week.  Simply, the recovery reversal of nearly 70pts trough to peak is only 7-8 days old and many are behind the ball on it (as in surprised).  This coming into a month end/Q end is where a PA pill (performance anxiety) will likely be swallowed by managers to play catch up.  This non-participation is also evident in the rally’s volume, this negative may turn into a positive as some larger managers may chase.  As Traders you can’t predict any further macro shocks, so you work with what’s in front of you and window dressing is it as we enter a corporate quiet period before next Q earnings.  A few notable eco data points Friday (Global PMI’s,NFP#) coinciding with QE2 hitting the street.

Shadowlist

• Momentum/ earnings/ winners of ’10-   The Nazzy/ R2K outperformed the SP by a full 1% this week, this sums up this Shadowlist group as corporate profits led the way, so plenty of linked names from leaders and oversold opticals to look at for more trading. Networking related names were weak post AT&T-T-Mob deal, but private Lightsquared is drawing attention as it makes deal after deal .  This equals more network build up, not less.
• Commodities- as per recent activity, coals,  GTLS, CRR,  MCP, names noted most here keep on trading well.
• Consumer- retail/lux DJIM names hanging in well, FOSL  keeps making new highs.  Some rotation late in the week into our casino names (WYNN, LVS)  to watch further.

DJIM #14 2011

As cited Friday post Global PMI/ US NFP#, the market should have been relieved as numbers came out better than feared.  March PMI’s withstood the shock of all macro global issues and NFP# came in solid, but not a big beat to make the latest hawkish case stand up. (*see below for more on PMI's).  The Bears still had a few shots to disturb the day, but US ISM came in line and most importantly, Fed Dudley curbed a week’s worth of ‘hawkish’ (tightening) exuberance by keeping to the ‘big 3 ‘ doves mandate. (Bernanke Monday night speak to follow).   

DJIM expectation was..” All in, the market big $ longs and markets shorts are on hold. The data may do nothing to change.”.   Basically, the market sighed a relief and it moved past “R” from data, but the big $$  is still not convinced to chase this 6.5 % rally off SPX 1250 and closed back below “R” top/ SPX 1335.   Market wannabe participants, (this includes big money longs and shorts) who look at the market rally in disbelief will be left with little to go on this upcoming week prior to earnings season.  Why?.  Simply, we are into a very quiet US economic/ earnings calendar week as SPX nears it's highs for the year.   It looks like the market might experience 'technical difficulties’, as in a market driven by technical analysis as the SPX nears ‘ double top’ ..Bear lingo.(* R2K/DJIA are above it.)  That’s all great chatter and makes use for all the crayon chart drawings you see in the social media stock world, but once the day is done, shorts/Bears are unlikely to do much (conviction) before earnings get into gear and risk more upside from the market.   It won’t be a surprise to see pre-announcements this week, we’ve seen quite a few already.  It will be interesting to see market’s follow through reaction as they hit (how much already baked in?). 

In all, we could be stuck as both sides have little conviction, likely all newsflow will come from outside US markets (ECB upcoming hike, China possible hike).

*While PMI’s held up for March, it’s very possible that immediate impact is not yet showing and April reading's will deteriorate.  It’s a few weeks away, but if a sizable correction is to occur, it will begin prior to the releases later in the month of April.   Earnings will need to offset possible Macro (Japan,Oil) drags ahead for investors to find value in stocks.

Shadowlist

■Momentum/ earnings/ winners of ’10-   If you think window dressing front running doesn’t exist,  just look at a 5 day FFIV chart.  Isn’t it sweet when a house downgrades (FFIV) immediately after a 8-10pts ramp higher into Q end.  This goes back to what we were saying about possible jumping on these missing link laggards into Q end.

Just 24 hrs after a bottom seemed to be formed in the opticals, a mid cap (EXFO earnings) destroys all linked names like JDSU, FNSR.  It’s quiet silly/ridiculuos and shows why it’s a momo’ trade this year as 50mln to 500mln market caps are bringing havoc on 2-4 bln market caps.  This action wouldn’t happen in many other sectors in the marketplace and will eventually be in play again as network builds are not going away in US and China.

As as broad tech, the SOX ‘dislike’ underperformance noted here mid week extends, month end couldn’t do much for a bid into the consumer end tech hardware/semi linked plays.  This is where most pre- announcements will likely occur.

As far as Shadowlist components, Wednesday included a few select winners on site. A few continued to be stong to close off the week.  NPTN  surged to a peak of ~20% next day, TDSC, added 13%, MSTR,  tacked on 3% to 8-10% Wednesday's gains.  WTW,  another 6%/ 5pts. 

■Commodities –  One sector that did have follow through on Friday as per note to watch was the Ferts/Ag’/,equp./chem.  As the coal trade here likely cools off shortly, we’d look for the ferts/ag’s/chem to trade post USDA numbers boosting corn prices. (Thurs.) 

■Consumer-  the retail sec is not getting much market attention, but DJIM earnings related retail/ lux plays continue to make new highs during a big week/month.  SODA,+6%nch FOSL, TBL, WFMI, UA surged Friday.  RL next for highs?. See table on site attached.  Also, casino (WYNN LVS )  on watch again since last week had nice day as March Macau numbers were excellent, the comps were very hard to beat, but they did so in record fashion.

pile up..

Hey, what’s one more negative (SP downgrade) headline to toss into the market, adding to the pile we discussed in this weekend’s DJIM #16.(escalating weekend Euro debt situation already had ES down 10pts.)

As ‘panicky’ wire headlines hit at 9am and spread into the open thanks to S&P threat to downgrade US debt in the future, most probably couldn’t decipher what it means to TSY’s/Treasuries, USD and definitely the equity market as it fell fast and furiously.

Considering a threat is just an idle threat until exercised, we followed up quite confidently 15 minutes into the trading day that if SP~1295 hit, it would likely be a buy point for today after dissemination of the downgrade.  Of course many would not suggest buying a gap down and a falling knife, but all you had to do was look at the Shadowlist components and see individual stocks were not being sold off.   This glimpse as usual allows you to make a decision even if you don’t know the consequences yet of any seemingly negative newswire that may have hit.  Can’t say we’ve seen one (outlook downgrade) to the US before to know what it may bring upon equities, so today it was best to rely on good old Shadowlist for guidance.  Besides, didn’t we all downgrade US debt long ago!  This doesn’t mean you jump and buy stocks (some names below worked) as much as it means you don’t panic and sell.   Soon after follow-up, market fell another ~10pts to 1295, a re- test and later a decent push to 1307H in the afternoon.  What the early trade demonstrated was it’s an ES/ETF trade again with investors holding on to individual stocks while fast traders play.  

*Although an important week, the holiday-shortened trading week with desks emptying by the hour as we go forward , we can expect exaggerated moves in either direction that don’t mean much as positions in all asset classes get squared away before the holiday.

Shadowlist

■Commodities – Keep seeing excellent numbers in Ag-equipment stocks recently, LNN, VMI, (TITN  initiated today in follow-up section).  So far this month not much is loved as earnings get sold off in most cases good or bad(LNN VMI) in this space, but sooner than later money flow will go into what is showing growth for rest of ’11.

■Consumers- LVMH , luxury goods out of Europe gave an upbeat report after overseas market close helping retailers here, notably LULU, but overall outperformance seen in group.

■Momentum/ earnings/ winners of ’10 –  Very nice reversals in AAPL, PCLN, each 10pts and hopefully a leading good sign.  WYNN, IPGP  as well back to high levels, while  SINA  really popped. Also, like LVMH, Infineon a chip from Europe helped earnings sentiment as it pre-announced AMC in Europe.  Unfortunately, TXN did nothing AMC as most US corps’ so far this earnings season.

'Hope' rally

As been repeated for weeks, the market is a headline watching match for the fast traders.  At least this time it favoured trading to upside on what was really ‘empty’ macro headlines with some micro page turning.

It all started with Europe in the morning with some finance ministers ‘opinions’ (nothing more) raising optimism towards an agreement at the summit (July 20-21).  This enthusiasm was surely to be curbed by Merkel’s comments at the US market open, but market stayed giddy with Housing sale # surprise . In the afternoon another upside leg ensued as “Gang of 6’ debt ceiling proposal made the rounds. Once again, empty headlines with nothing concrete and possibly just more proposals amounting to nothing as usual.  All in, market ran on Macro ‘hope’, but likely rekindled some on earnings follow through from IBM, WYNN last night into the morning with PII,HOGS (disc. spending),OMC,KO and Hermes in Europe. 

In all, nothing macro resolved, but market tested the important 1295 successfully and it coincided with a better earnings picture emerging pushing market back over 20ma benchmark.  It’s too early to draw conclusions on earnings and/or turning away from political ‘macro’, but a rally is a rally and we’ll take it. Another hope is that many were flat footed today and come out to chase despite uncertainty abound. Remember, first leg is always short covering, especially as seen in SOX components today after just hitting fresh lows.

Shadowlist

Consumer - As alerted in morning for TIF FOSL LULU UA  all NCH’s, Hermes earnings put bid on high end, Adidas comments and potential end to NFL strike helped out UA. 

Earnings Q3 linked-   WYNN  post earnings succumbed to profit taking in regular trading hours, but it’s not going off list and will be a buy again.  This sell off possibility was noted to watch following EDU.  PII  added late June at 109 before running 11% to $122, once again put in a very healthy Q   (SHS  ran up as high 23%. Since pulled back, so keep eye out for EPS date).  http://www.djimstocks.com/djim-journal-1h-2011/a-few-names-to-list-into-q3piishsplcm.html.

IBM big catalyst earnings put bid on Mega caps, but also software Shadowlisted CRM  MSTR  to NCHs.

AMC, FTNT, RVBD  demonstrated high beta stocks ran or are running into earnings calls and if expectations are not handily beaten, you’ll be slapped down.

Ahead of the open, (01-12)

A global ‘warming’ emergency synchronization… rescue beginning in December 5, but only a piece of the puzzle as banking and sovereign debt crisis is interwoven.

Just as the Shanghai exchange suffered one of its biggest declines in 2011 overnight with PBOC officials still dampening hopes intraday of an imminent easing…Boom!...PBOC cuts reserve requirements after close by 50bp starting Dec.5 (cuts amount of cash banks must set aside to spur lending).

=Futures market reverse about 20 handles into 8am.

In Europe, a dud of an EFSF deal reached by finance ministers, speculation policymakers had made no progress on propping IMF funds with ECB not ready to do anything substantial…. BOOM!...A FED led blitz of Central Banks backed by US gov’t with a US-Funded Liquidity Bailout of worldwide dollar crunch!!. Yes, the same USD funding stresses noted here before the eventual 1275SP- to 1159SP rout just over week ago needed a quick Global bailout!. Simply, central banks rescued what EU officials couldn’t (liquidity shortage) in a bold move taking matters into their own hands.

= SPX rockets and recovers almost all the ground lost in November.

There was not going to be fade job of Monday’s rally as the market ‘squeezed’ higher off fresh cheap cash injections to come. Funny, how you can fix Germany’s 1yr debt going negative this morning (probably kicker for action), China’s horrible market day off renewed hard landing fears and a European ministers inabilities in just a few hours. Note, this intervention isn’t the holy grail guarantee, but it is a piece of the Eurozone puzzle.

Of course, what ails banks is now seemingly fixed for the moment as their lending to each other simply trickles down to economies, but it doesn’t put a blanket over the debt sovereign crisis. Expect more from ECB going forward to make this a true turning point for the crisis. ECB hard-line/standing pat seems to be getting it’s way and sooner than later they will be satisfied to step in. (more political reform etc.). Also, expect IMF co-ordinated program to get off the ground as well.

Unfounded rumors of a bank struggling to fund itself  this morning might have the ‘mishap’ talked about here last week for something to be done.  Still, it’s likely the German 1yr this morning is what spooked the CB’s to let loose their contingency co-ordination. This wasn’t made up overnight, it’s been in the works just in case.  In all, that should give confidence to investors co-ordination is always a possibility.

In all, add ADP# 200k ahead of NFP# Friday ( .. last week here...Employment whispers for Dec 2 starting to come in at 200k~.)..and equities just became sexy again. Last weekend did smell like a prelude to a rally, just as in October rally (noted early this week). Financials rallied ~6% , leading the tape (along with materials (high beta coals (CLF, WLT) steels led (X,NUE ), energy, and industrials). Bascially, you can trade commodity- linked stocks such as above that have been Shadowlisted in the past, as well as the high beta earnings plays related to China ..(ie.WYNN, LVS, CMI.) or just related sector ETF’s.

Although most of the day was over with at 8:40am, the fact SP added some 10+ handles in the last hour suggests some ‘ longs only stepped in’ after the early morning short covering. This suggests we may buy single stocks in anticipation of more upside into year – end. So, did we get our wish from financials to lead rally, just like in October?? They are down nearly 25-30% YTD and big rallies usually see worst sectors bought first.

You may not believe in CB’s actions, EFSF, China ‘s RRR, but this is a day where you can’t ignore the price action. Things are actually being done a step at a time, recall note here investors want action, not more speculation around upcoming (meeting, summits).