..maybe a start to a sentiment change..

As the market meandered in consolidation mode in the ‘red’ all morning (SPX -5pts at noon),the ‘missing link’ noted here was outperforming with JNPR  (networking) and FFIV  (best on SP 500 tech) were coming out of the doldrums and leading the way.  As the day progressed more and more past leaders joined and a broad market move higher ensued.  The hope is this the beginning of what has been discussed here this week in respect to Japan tech worries being overblown and close to being priced in.  JBL’s  report negated some of the fears for EMS, Comm.equip, optical stocks and late in the afternoon TXN’s CEO said the company would come close hitting street estimates despite Japan.  AMC, RHT and MU  put in strong reports to help the cause and an important day is ahead in earnings tomorrow with ORCL,BBY, RIMM.  Note today’s action took place amid a bunch of negative bits that the market shook off.

Shadowlist

• Momentum/ earnings/ winners of ’10-   JBL helped sentiment overall in this space.  FFIV, RVBD, APKT  all >3-4%. Opticals like OPLK  and notably IPGP , +10% and a NCH.  Also, momo names like BIDU, NFLX do well.
• Commodities-  The coal trade continues for a 6^th or 7^th consecutive day.  GTLS,  continues to be a stand out putting in another NCH along with CRR, another EPS winner here this past Q.

..meandering

As the market meandered near the flat-line in the morning, you as a trader begin to look over the Shadowlist to see any trends developing. What you see today, is what you see many days lately and that’s pockets of strength in stocks linked to any individual news. IE., First hour of trading,MCP  >10% on an acquisition, APKT >5% on target price increases and the flip side SODA down 10% on a 5mln share offering, NVDA on price decrease.  

Unfortunately, a sidelined market consists of days like this as traders jump on anything making news, even if it is as irrelevant as a price tgt increase without an upgrade attached.  Other more important trends were visible and that’s where ‘slower’ money is going instead of ‘fast money’ looking for a quick flip in and out. (see below).  If you pick up the relative strength early on, you can dwindle your Shadowlist trading list from 60 names to maybe 10 to concentrate on intraday.

By trading close, a meandering market continued and the stocks/sec’s noted here kept outperforming and/or underperforming.  Nothing really changed all day.

The SOX once again weighted on the market as the biggest underperformer <1%.  AMC, TXN bought a grandfather of a semi stock for a huge premium.  It will likely be a very temporary boost as pre-announcements possibilities are first and foremost in investor’s minds.

Shadowlist

■Momentum/ earnings/ winners of ’10 – Last week we noted strength in Chinese Internet related names, once again SOHU BIDU, SINA  were up 3-7%.

■Commodities  - Relative strength in Ag’s/ Chems continued to follow through post USDA report.

Update on Tuesday, April 5, 2011 at 04:59AM by Demi/ YourPersonalTrader

Apple Inc. will have its weighting
in the Nasdaq-100 Index lowered as part of changes to the gauge
by Nasdaq OMX Group Inc. to better reflect company market
capitalizations.

http://bloom.bg/gvckYr

Up in the air (earnings)...

The immediate morning question was can the market build on the premarket pop and Global rebound occurring overnight. The problem premise here recently is that besides no conviction buying stepping up when we need it, we don’t have shorts laying out exposure in this recent melt up or on this downturn to 20ma to make a move sustainable higher.   So following this idea, logical expectation was once again some short covering early followed by little or no buy conviction at all coming off the sidelines. Therefore, a short covering would only be short lived because there are not enough shorts in the market, no longs to buy, so the bounce would peter out.  An hour into the trading day this was evident as SPX gains were erased, by close it was even more clear the premise once again worked itself out.

In all, not sure who won today!. The Bears should have closed the market lower if you look at JPM, ASML, ADTN earnings reactions (more on this below).  On the other hand, Bulls didn’t get positive reactions off headline #’s which were solid, yet finished at par in the broad market with earnings supposedly disappointing.  Screwy day as cautiousness towards earnings is still prevalent on investors minds, so they wait for more reports to make investing decisions.  Today's results left it up in the air.

Shadowlist

■Momentum/ earnings/ winners of ’10 –  , Yesterday it was noted the tech group needs some good news.  All the market got was more mixed signals it seems.  Solid beats and/or guides were ignored and fickle investors found ‘ softness’ somewhere within a report and/or during CCalls. (ADTN was up 5% premkt/ ASML).  Earnings luckily started w/ RVBD  pre-announcement, but ADTN/ASML (noted coming into trading day to watch) couldn’t built on the support for the group.  Tech did get some short covering just as in TXN/SOX bump noted gain yesterday), but that was it as the Nasdaq, peak to trough dropped 28 intraday points midday.

Yesterday….“Still ,some pockets of life today  in NVDA/ Networking/optical were not bad today as the well know names like ALU CIEN did alright …”.  Some of the best tech strength was in these names today, (optical/networking) ALU  >8%, CIEN >4% up , FNSR >3%, along with our closely followed Chinese internet linked names,  SINA  SOHU  BIDU again 3-7% up.

■Financials  -  In respect to earnings, same goes with JPM  as with tech reports. It seemed like a solid report for the financials, based on a headline Rev/EPS, but the underlying mortgage repurchase expenses up attracted the negativity and spread to peers.

..is it over yet?

The earnings momentum engine was losing some steam before market open (BMO), but no one noticed luckily as the Bernanke show overshadowed today’s lacklustre earnings. Simply, the very positive results from Tuesday couldn’t be matched, it’s best that earning reports today took a backseat.  As far as the ‘show’, it’s contents minus any potential screw up by Bernanke were released at lunch hour and market responded positively as everything and anything dovish is ‘easy money’ and was ‘confirmed’.  The USD started to get whacked lower at 12:30 and that was the tale to be for rest of day.  As much as this conference was and will remain fodder for debate, the reality is it was a non-event.  If austerity was 2010 word of the year, one of 2011 finalist might be ‘transitory’ after today. Enough said, let's move on, it's over with. 

This week’s enthusiasm for earnings and FED likely gets digested for rest of week after hitting SP 1355 level. Attention should turn to big April eco data/Macro starting next week, including ‘debt ceiling’ noise as recess concludes.

Shadowlist

■Commodities –  The beneficiaries today were clearly the PM’s as they exploded higher.  As far as everything else, Copper was weak and base metal stocks (coals, steels) didn’t participate in the USD plunge and underperformed.  Nobody is talking about the Shanghai now, but the 4-5 consecutive down days and technically negative below 50ma is something to monitor for our markets and commodity groups (possibly more tightening on it’s way)

■Momentum/ earnings/ winners of ’10 –  There is a lot of discrepancies in how tech linked names react to earning, so it’s hard to know what may run or not.  APKT  ran off a disappointing guidance that only matched their 'own' guidance, while a peer ININ  beat Tuesday and gets sold off.  KEYN  is another one that should have done better today as well as BIDU after hours.   AMZN  likely confused a few in it’s impressive comeback. Opticals, JDSU and FNSR  (noted here recently for eyeing gap) outperformed.