..Big day>>>Boring day

Yesterdays BIG day followed by a BORING day is just fine with us...We can live on the adrenaline rush of yesterday any day, but sometimes coming off such highs can be quite the ugly trip the next day.   We've seen it before where the gainers evaporate one by one the next day and this is why it's never a bad thing to take down some positions in size on days like yesterday and even today when it is quiet and you can sneak in a better sell.    The boring action from yesterdays runners didn't stop us from looking for the next new stock to trade.    We found a couple this morning in ALGN and TGX.   The first hour of the trading day,  we are not thinking what potential this has 48hrs from now or next week.   If we see potential for further gains today off a good earning report..we will jump on it with a starter position and add to it if the action gets better during the day.   You could've had yourself 5-10% on the ALGN and TGX off the alert time without ever having to add these to your book overnight.   Some make a nice living just chewing off these intraday trades day after day.   Of course,  it's not that simple as it's about discovery more than anything.  Being able to find the play is what it is all about, even if the stock has gapped 15-20% by the opening bell.   Too many are simply afraid to enter at those levels and sometimes never get the pull back they hoped for.  These are not the sexiest stocks but they will do for sloppy days like today,  especially if the action is right with volume.   

Align Tech beats by $0.14, beats on revs; issues upside Q1, Y07 guidance (ALGN) , Reports Q4 (Dec) loss of $0.01 per share, $0.14 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of ($0.15); revenues rose 7.8% year/year to $55.2 mln vs the $54 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for Q1, sees EPS of $0.02-0.04 vs. -$0.05 consensus; sees Q1 revs of $56.8-59.8 mln vs. $54.75 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for FY07, sees EPS of $0.15-0.27 vs. -$0.01 consensus; sees FY07 revs of $240-255 mln vs. $238.37 mln consensus

Theragenics reports Q4 revs up 30% (TGX) .Co reports Q4 (Dec) EPS of $0.05, excluding a deferred tax asset valuation allowance, vs $(0.01) a year ago. Revenue rose 30% yr/yr to $14.8 mln. There are no analyst estimates. Co says "In many ways we have just completed our best year...and Q4 was our highest quarterly revenue ever...we delivered four consecutive profitable quarters in 2006, something we haven't done since 2002.".       

MFW,  this was the 'trade' in our book off yesterdays alert and buy in.   The action kicked off from the bell and it ran to a high of 33.69 off yesterdays $31+ afternoon prices.  These are the kind of trades you are most happy with!.  Ones where you believe in a stock from the extended level of $28,  our first buy here at DJIM..... to these days when you time a breakout almost perfectly.  Whodathunkit this still had 20% in it from that $28 buy in?.  We did and that's why its been on the chart board every day.

CENX CCOI , also part of the alert..We had nice days with CENX climbing to over $2+ at the highs and CCOI $1+.   If you've been long these,  you're happy.  If you day traded the alert...you're happy.  Actually, we're happy on both sides by adding to the move and selling some later without touching our longer term position in each.

Besides these early morning alerts,  it was quite boring.    But... boring is good when nothing falls apart after a big day.   Anyway, there were enough plays to keep us all busy today.

DJIM #6 2007

We thought we'd get this out today while we're all in a sober state before Sunday's game..

Now that we are in February,  we'll save you from listening more about USAP CCF MFW our core of big winners in January.  Well, maybe for a few days only!.   Nothing has changed since the last write ups, so glance back if needed.  Instead on Super Bowl weekend,  we'll discuss some new and some neglected DJIM names...

CNS, this asset management co' has taken over our money after the demise of GROW.  We've been in and out before recent earning and have been waiting for a signal to enter after EPS.  The day came on FED Wednesday (Journal) as it attacked the congestion in the low 48's seen after earning.  A quiet Thursday and then a nice move Friday.  We like, We like as a core hold.

ALGN a buy in alert low 16's off earning that knocked out estimates has playing ping pong between $16 and $17. We've never traded this before and are closely watching trying to figure it out.  As of Friday, we think there is a possibility of some action if it gets just a little bit higher. BT has confirmed this with a chart look as well.   If we don't get a move early in the week, we'll cut out if we don't see some momo established again.

AVZA an alert at the bell Friday that we soon bought into.  We're not so thrilled with techs but a turnaround is seen here with this profitable Q and guidance equal to this Q.   A nice pop from 5.50 to 6.50 before tailing off.  We traded some of AVZA and kept some to see if we can make it 4 for 4 on cheapies following on the footsteps of NWK, TRCR TXG!.  Basically, we are using the same strategy on all of these.  Best to see the latest on the TRCR, TXG's first days.

SILC, is an Israeli tech just small enough to avoid the institution rush to sell off after earning.  We are very familiar with SILC having traded it from the 6's and were in no hurray to pick up till Thursday buy in alert end of day.  This company is what you call a comeback story,  the founder brought in a top manager and marketing exec.. Yep..the stock was less than half a buck ...4 or 5 years ago with a market cap less than a million, now its probably over 100mln.  They reported a .20c Q/.49c on the year.  Maybe this becomes an IBD contender?.

T'N'T, talk about cheap thrills'!.... we have to group these cheap DJIM winners together.  First there was NWK we started in the 6's and alerted last Friday before this 10% week.......then there was TRCR and last week a spec buy in alert at $4 of TGX.  We noted Thursday on TGX and taking profits with a quick 20% in a week,  we did the same on TRCR again Friday which we started at $6'ish and alerted again to look for action in $6.70's last week.    We are looking at these day to day now with bigger pieces being sold.  There is nothing wrong on the fundamental side but we feel they are getting a bit extended short term.  A nice pullback or two, we wouldn't mind in a few of these after the 20-40% moves.

We got the cheap cornered,  but what we really like most is the classy ones to hold tight.  They are expensive in many a traders eyes as some just can't see past a under $10 stock.   We love these types.  We bought the starters in ENR at 83's, the VARI 52's, the VTRU $43's and have been adding along the way.   These have produced nice charts since entry and returns of 3-8% between them quietly.  We 've sold most of the VTRU the last few days after 4pts in 7/8 trading days but we'll look to buy back in if NASD internet names get some love.   If the market continues to go our way, we expect the institutions to want these types of companies on their books and that's why we consider them nice longer term hold potential.   RESP had the best start but now is lagging the bunch.

OEH , the lux lodging stocks have throwing up good numbers (HLT HOT), eventually this hits secondary names and one we started in again is OEH as revenues per available room look to be higher in '07.  If the institutions do their homework, they'll likely want to hold this one into earning this month.  Actually, this one has so much institutional interest(96%) already it might allow them to walk it up.  We are looking for this type of discovery here.  A slow and steady move into earning off these new highs.  If this 96% ownership is too much or the price is a little expensive have a look at..MHGC

MHGC trades under $20 and we started a position late Friday.  Think Super Bowl, think The Delano and then you'll see what MHGC is about.  The chart looks jus' fine and the 25mln float is jus' fine.

It's pretty easy to break up the trading stocks between those you want to hold over the longer term. We have the core which now includes CNS added to CCF USAP MFW,  the last 3 may need to rest here and there as January has been nice to them and us all.  The cheapies are to trade NWK TRCR TGX, you can throw in HRBN AVZA even ALGN till we see a trend or not.  Plus, we have the not so volatile more expensive names such as the ENR VARI VTRU VE.  There is a fave steel play USAP, a fave aluminum play CENX.  A fave oil play in the steady MTRX.. if you want to carry such, a fave Russian telco in GLDN, a potential lux lodging play in MHGC OEH.   Basically there is something for all types of traders/investors.   We're not throwing out the SWIR's out of sight, instead we'll be digging for these types that are not getting love off earning as potential plays in the very near future.

..with Love!... signed FC.B

Who you gonna trust in a untrustworthy market on Valentines Day?.... FC. Bernanke of course!.lol...The man blew a kiss and the market caught it big time..every sector got a big wet one from Fed Chairman today!  We won't bore you with this as we just react around here and let others digest and dissect all of this.  All we know is the contenders come out and play and the pretenders stay pat.  It is days like this that you fully understand if you should cut the laggards ( if you haven't the last few days).  If your stock didn't participate today or even yesterday, you are trailing the market.  Today proved the majority of DJIM stocks have been the right play, many toyed with new highs or just had nice action days.  Here is what was in the Box of Chocolates....the spiked ones first

TRT, well excuse if we didn't have time to wrap this one up..lol...we've talked about the lack of love TRT might experience and the reasons why this time around. This is why we had the starter at 13.50 and said we want confirmation over $14 before adding. Well...things changed a bit today and so did our thinking.  Seemingly no one else was connecting the report of the semi AMAT to TRT.   You know,  if you punch TRT competitors.. AMAT is a name you see.   The thinking was simple.  The semi's gap and TRT is sitting in the mid $13's with 30K volume only after stellar earnings.  HUH?..Just like CENX yesterday to a degree, this was a secondary play today on semi's and it was not participating.  We thought this wouldn't last but we didn't expect the rush of 300k plus shares to come in the last 2 hours..lol.  We added as soon as volume doubled from 30-40k time mention and added all the way up before taking some off end of day.  Considering all the time in the world was had for DJIM members to buy TRT since the report, including today under $14.... we can't say we'll be adding in the morning and maybe you should hold off too.

HRBN was the other stock we noted today at 12.70's made a NCH.  Yep, its the same Herbie we introduced at $10 and the spike to 13.70 the next day.  Well, hopefully it got that exuberance out of its system and can hold its gains.  Whatever the case , the China stocks look better as the FXI stabilizes and so we thought we'd go with the small gap open after yesterdays reversal.  We noted the big bids in alert, either this gets taken up into the conference HRBN is at on the 19th and/ or this bidder turns to seller on any bigger ramp up.  Hey, it's a market!

So those were the sweetest gainers but there was more in the box...

USAP made new highs, we have talked about this all week and today was the result.  MFW which reversed along side USAP the other day also finished well.  ENR BW VE OEH CGX HXM all put on a good show. We released most of our VARI as it seems tired and didn't participate.  A nice run for VARI and we'll be back.  It is best to release into a high quietly, nothing beats it after such a walk up since earnings.   So what you have is a bunch of stocks that performed well in a good environment, if you have ones that didn't...you most likely have a true laggard..a laggard is not ONXX that needed to rest after huge gains but an ALGN which can't bust out in a perfect storm for a stock that had its sight on a break.    Simply, you want to be in strength and not in stocks that make you have sleepy money. 

Big Point Gainers...

Yes, the good earning plays are being rewarded with big points lately.   It seems you only have to beat just enough and raise the guidance(not necessarily required) just enough to be rewarded a big push on your earning day.    We love it, and this kind of phenomenon brings back memories of the golden days.    Alright,  so the strategy out there is to catch some of these big gainers once it's confirmed that people "like" their report.     How can you tell?    We figured if by 10 a.m.the stock is still holding up well, we'd be start looking for entry point there.   This may very well mean that we have missed the "best" entry price of the day, but it does ensure us that any entry price we enter would give us that much more probability that we can come out on top.   Why?   The big point gainer theory!    Of course, you still have to trade those stocks with that kind of potential.    If one of the earning plays did not give you a huge run-up, perhaps trying a few of them would work out better.    Keep in mind, we are playing the earnings play here, and these aren't the phase 3 stocks or other type of stories where the stories may only last as long as the time to chew down a snicker bar.     With a earning play, even if you get in at high on earing day, there's still a very high probability that stock continues higher throughout the following days if not weeks..if the market holds up, of course.

Bottom line, trading earnings play (after the earning announcement) is a rather conservative yet highly effective method to trade.   It can also be highly profitable if you trade mostly small caps like we do.    Four times a year, with each earning season lasting a month or two, this would be enough to make it a full time job.  With so many opportunities so far the past week, it just proves in our minds there is no reason to hold through and into the earnings call.  We have great expectations of the DXPE, SYNL, BW, BTJ's to announce great reports after trading them for months , if not already years....But this does not mean we want or will sleep with them the night before they give out their numbers/ guidance.  We practise, 'safe trade' around here, you might say on earning day.

Some plays today...

ALGN VDSI,  we group these two because they both shot up off their respective earning reports.    Volume was great for both and both pretty much spent most of their days flat lining until later on.    We alerted these earlier today and we liked the way they closed.   It wouldn't surprise us that they get some good follow through tomorrow and possibly into next week for some nice gains.

SVVS SSYS WST, these ones are much like the ones above and acted well off their earning reports.    We had to buy these because you never know which one of these will become a great runner.    What we do is keep a close eye on the strength of each one and add/reduce according to their action.    Basically, even for a small size, we just can't afford not to play them.  At todays pace , plus with the usual suspects rocking SYNL DXPE BTJ, we don't have time to do much if any DD on these new names.  We are trading the #'s and action.  We consider them secondary plays at this time and will choose the best in the days ahead to go forward with.

BTJ DXPE, wow these two had great follow through today and especially BTJ.    This is essentially pure momentum at work and we won't argue nor mess with them.

SYNL TRCR,  both notched a new closing high and in the case of SYNL, momentum seems to be really high and we are curious to see how high it goes before it stalls.  The last 4 are definitely the primary earning plays here.

PAE, wow we didn't even think this could be such a huge gainer(% wise) after we alerted it days back.   Of course, Briefing helped our cause but nonetheless the company PR machine is at work. Today, a deal with Sony Entertainment got the name out further. This is just getting too impressive and we'll keep trading it even after selling a chunk off this week.

IDSA,  it might be too cute to think that this one can get onto the IBD100 list with just 2 days left.   Well, technically, it's still possible given the float of the stock and volatile nature of this beast.    What we like about this one is the fact that the sector it belongs in is very hot and coupled with the general rosiness of this market, it's just not unnatural to run this one higher.   It does have good enough IBD number to get into the top 50 at least and we feel it's just a matter of time before it gets added to IBD100 list, provided that it can consolidate around this level.

Market pulls itself up...

DEFIBRILLATOR anyone?. We're thinking of having one on hand for the new members..;)...Those that have been with us and trading these types know there is no great reward without a little heart stopping activity..lol.. ..In regards to the market tone, if we get scared, we'll tell you as we always have by issuing an alert like in February. Right now everyone is trying to say the market is over bought and bringing in the seasonality factor to scare you out of your positions.  If they are right.....FINALLY!.....and they've been trying for months, we'll gladly go into cash and withstand the punishment others might start to feel while being very selective in our plays.   As far as we are concerned, we go day by day and a pullback eg. on the NASD to 2500 level would be nothing but the perfect retracement to go higher.  If this level breaks down on volume, we might be issuing that alert.  Also, this is earning time and we will have new plays to come even/ if in the worst of times in the next month or so. 

On to today...

It's actually refreshing to see that market did the opposite of what it did yesterday.    That is, instead of turning lower, market managed to turn green later on in the afternoon.     Again, we can't really draw much conclusion from this move.    It's actually been a very mixed day, when it comes to our DJIM stocks.   Some stocks were hit earlier but managed to reverse and closed well but a couple of stocks did not seem to be affected by this market, one way or the other.     We are keeping our eyes on all of our recent earning plays and will decide to see what sort of action we'd take on them next few days.  

TRCR, this one actually bucked the trend earlier and stayed strong throughout the day.   The action today actually surprised us a little b/c we didn't expect fast momentum to come from this one out of all of the plays we'd covered last few days.  lol    We are not complaining though.   However, it remaines to be seen if it can get some serious momentum.    We do prefer a slower and steadier move with this one though. We sold most the other day and are only trading it at this point when a possible move is seen.

NGA, wow this one is volatile, to say the least.    We do like the ending action though.   Basically, it gives confidence that people are still very much into this one.   Hopefully this one consolidates a little here and forms a strong base so we get to much higher prices.

IDSA, is another that held up well today in the early going. Volume has been low the last couple of days while holding these levels. A good sign as potential sellers seem to want to stick around and see if this makes a run late in the week for IBD.  It won't take much to push it from this range over the hump.  Notice the last 3 days on chart, you can almost draw a perfect triangle > with today's close at 13.50 right in the middle.  Basically, the range got tighter today and something has to give.   A few of the things mentioned above makes us think this will go higher this week.

ALGN, this one battled back from yesterday's weakness and it's very close to a new high.    We are looking to see if some of the other earning play can pull a similar move within the next few days. Hey, if you got a think for teeth, there is ADPI today.  We like but want to see what the secondary earnings names we've mentioned have in them first.

BTJ, this one is being like btj.   We just need a strong stomach when it comes to dealing with its moves. lol.   We discussed DXPE the other night, BTJ is no different and same rules apply.  If you are starting a position the last few days, you are only trading it and should be jumping further in these moves. 5 pts off low today.  If you bought the earnings and like the story heading into the summer, stay strong....if it's not in you....move on.

The last few days we've had some intraday swings in the market, potential plays either don't materialize like yesterday or some get more juice like CPY did today...so take them as what they are and that is leads, keeping in mind the overall market conditions.  Simply the chance of a stock breaking out as it nears a playable area is thrown out the window (like SSVS approaching recent highs), if the market panics and reverses as we saw yesterday.

CPY, Sunday we brought it up because it exploded Friday to new highs.  Today you saw the significance of updating your screeners with stocks near highs.  Today's range was 57.51 to 66.62 on volume surpassing Fridays...9 potential pts worth to play inside of. This is a lead that materialized at 2pm as it popped another 3 pts after our note on it.  Something is up here, we don't know what but it is bringing in momentum.  We're trading it in small sizes today. Speculation can die off quickly so care is needed here.