Eyeing the range...

Regardless what comes at the newsfront, we believe alot of traders would be eyeing last week's high and low as the sticky point to trade.    Unfortunately for traders, those sticky points amount to almost 500 point range on Dow and about 100 point range on Naz.    Such is the life of traders and this is what we have to deal with.    In our opinion, this range bound trading can last a long while and we have to get ready for it.

Today is the first day in a while, well it seems like in a while, that we've seen less volatility from this market.   This is a good thing and less volatility definitely gives confidence back to traders.    The more orderly the trading becomes, the better looking chart setup we'd get and better probability comes out of each play.   Well, so far we can only hope that is the case and we'd get some more opportunities to trade.

here are some interesting plays we are looking at today...

CRNT, after some very volatile trading in the past three days, it seemed to settled in somewhat today.    Good thing for this one is that it's now back above 9 ema and above $15.    How firm is this price?   We don't know at this point and we'd have a pretty good picture next couple of days to find out.    What is worth noting at this point, however, is that the play doesn't seem to be finished.   As long as there are crowds willing to push it for that IBD100 listing, we can certainly take advantage of such case and trade a point or two out of it.    The most important thing here though, is not to get greedy and remember this is nothing more than a play.    This one looks to be at a pretty good range bound between $14 and $17.

JST, we noticed the earning release from this one in the morning and couldn't help but started a small position.   Well, at the time both indices were well into the green.    What we like about this one is that it held on to its gain and even attempted to run up even near the end.    Its earning didn't seem too bad to us either since both its revenue and income are at the record high.    Of course, this one isn't new to us and if it moves, it can really move.   We are putting this one high on our trading list at this moment.

STAR, this one seemed to enjoy the day far better than many other stocks.   We like the kind of business it's in and the fact it broke out into a new 52 week high is also a huge bonus.    We got a starter in this one and will trade accordingly.

WX, this is almost a brand new stock.   It only traded for three days and again we think this is the kind of stock that may not be affected by what's happening in our financial market these days.   The co. of course seems expensive in terms of valuation but really we haven't found one recent IPO that's trading at a reasonable price level.    It's all about perception and as long as "the crowd" likes it, we'd play along with it.

BIDZ, perhaps it's our bad that we didn't notify everyone that it's releasing earning report tonight.   Well, guess it's ok to slip one through once in a while.    Company came out with earning and forward guidance after the close.   We actually like the number and its guidance.    What we want to point out is that another company NILE has enjoyed lots of success with its model.   There's always the possibility that this one is gaining some good growth in a big market, even at the expense of others.     If it wasn't for its earning report tonight, the setup looks great.   We do have to see if it gets run up tomorrow or not and reaction is really unpredictable at this moment.    Basically, keep a close eye on this one.

FCN, finally, after some much needed pullback on Friday, this one again regained its footing today.    Perhaps couple more consolidation days and we can get another strong runup going.

Calming down..

It seems that the volatility of this market has eased a bit.    Despite the intraday swing of the index, many of the plays on our watchlist do seem to calm down somewhat today.   We like this behaviour and this is the kind of mood we'd be able to deal with.     Even though the breadth is pretty balanced today but we somehow happen to have quite a few green ones on our watchlist.     This of course does not mean everything is playable but it's definitely a start.     Having a long list of stocks in green do give us somewhat of a comforting feeling to perhaps step back into a play or two.    This is supposed to be the follow through day and we also mentioned yesterday that we need a day or two to digest which plays might be worth playing.

Here are some plays we are looking at today....

VMW, we don't think the enthusiasm has died down from this IPO.    Again, if this one is claimed to be the next big thing, it should get some good momentum going as long as the techs in good shape.   We are watching $59 mark closely for a possible break there.

WX, this one did very well today and we chased some near the end.   We actually like some of the recent IPOs and they are faring this volatility pretty well.

JST, surprisingly, it held up really well today off a gap up.    We are watching this one with some great interest and want to see what this one is planning to do after today.

FSLR, can an upgrade be able to bring back the former glory out of this play?   One thing is for sure, there will be lots of resistance ahead of this one so expectation needs to be realistic from the bounce.    We are merely playing quick points here and until there's some improvement in the entire solar sector, it's just going to be quick point play off news.

Tug of war

Given the amount of points market has risen since the low of last Thursday, we think it actually did pretty good today.    Volatility has eased quite a bit and it seems there are willing buyers out there, on selective stocks.     Once again, we had some trading opportunities from some recent names that looked very interesting today.

VMW, it seems that there's not a day gone by without some sort of action from this one.    Because this one is so new and the momentum is still very strong, we literally just have to rely on 5 min. chart to watch for a reversal.   Action is definitely one of the fastest paced we've traded in a while.    We bought back some and added some near the end.     If a morning pop comes, we'd be willing to part some shares.

WX, ever since this one IPOed, it constantly reminded us of that other Chinese medical co.  MR.    Sure, the business is entirely different with these two companies but the trading resemblance is quite similar days after their IPO.   Top top it off, both had an awesome IBD eps rating to start.    We are trading on technicals only up until today and we will watch any further development to see if it can pick up any momentum like other IBD related stocks.

CRNT, speaking of IBD, this former IBD #1 stock is still live and strong.    Tomorrow comes a big test of $17 and we think if it breaks out clean, we'd see some quick upside.    Again, tomorrow's Friday and many traders may not push it too hard and as long as it stays up here for IBD, we can all leave it untill next week to try for a meaningful push.

ARCI/DOCX,  many of you may not even remember these two cheapies when we alerted a while back but they both had a fantastic day, in their respective way that is.    The trading in DOCX may seem iffy but it goes to show that sometimes it's worth it just to park a couple shares in these kind of stocks as long as they don't break down. 

DJIM #35

If you were told a week in advance where the stock indices would end up, what would you have done?   In other words, what stocks would you have bought or sold in anticipation of this move.   Frankly, we wouldn't have guessed right about any stocks even if we were told the indices would go up this much.    Instead, we just had to rely on our instinct and take cues from daily action.     Everyday, things can change and moves can be unpredictable.    This is definitely one of the toughest trading environment we had to encounter last little while.    Sure, at the end of the week, we can look back and see how easy all these plays would've been called and how everything just made sense the way they behaved.   So was it that obvious?   Lets just say, every one of us would have a different version of answer to that.

The fact of the matter is, despite what may seemed like a good week for many of us, we still played very cautiously.    We try not to out read the market or outsmart the trend.    We just stuck to a simple game plan.      We look for plays that have relative good strength and load them when market is in good momentum.     We lock profit constantly when the market looks directionless and buy them back when the market looks stable enough.    All in all, we simply stuck with a group of stocks that stood out from the crowd.    That, to us, is the key in trading in this kind of market.  This isn't to say this strategy is fire proof and can net you a crazy return.    To us, this is just the safest means to survive in this kind of unpredictable market.

In terms of crisis management, we seemed to have gotten less news(bad ones) from the market last week.   This definitely calmed down all of the market participants somewhat.   However, this doesn't mean that it's the end of this whole subprime and credit crunch saga and we are safe to move on.    This market still needs some strong test.    The kind of tests we are referring to are the "swallow the bad news" kind of test.    Basically, we wanted to see how this market copes with another round of subprime or credit crunch related news.    If by then, the market seems to absorb the news in a good way and focus more on the earnings side of things, we may then be able to expand our play list into other area and increase our exposure.     Basically, we just have to be prepared for alot of unknowns and everybody has a fair chance at this point.  Tthis is why we love this gig!

Now onto some plays...

WX, this one didn't make it to IBD100, in case anyone cared.    We don't think this is the concern at the moment.   What we notice is that this one is sure on alot of traders' radar as a hot play.    We like this fact!    This company is in a unique position to take advantage of its business.   Basically, nobody can compete with them in terms of cost, the cost of doing business that is.    As far as its business goes, you can simply read up the latest IPO filing.     Right now, we are playing this one like any other hot plays.  It means we are taking profit as often as  going for re-entries.    The play isn't looking tired in anyway at this moment and we hope it'd last alittle while longer.

VMW, perhaps we should just simply buy this one for long term, like back when Google IPOed.   But we then realized there's only one Google and this one is called VMW.    There's alot of expectation out of this one and institutions are getting involved in a big way.   Sure, we don't think its business can grow like Google but that is of no concern to us at this moment.   This play still has legs and we aren't playing this one casually either.

DRYS, this one just looks very tricky because it's at its previous high.    Keep in mind, we aren't talking about the earnings or fundamentals here and there's nothing wrong with that.    We are simply unsure if shippers as a group can gain a new leg up.   We don't believe DRYS can go up on its own without the whole sector following behind its leadership.   This is a big if and we have to keep it in mind constantly.

CRNT, who'd thought BIDU would take #1 spot on IBD100, instead of this one?   It's irrelevant at this point.    We got a feeling that this one can start a new leg from here.    Alot of this speculation hinges on the performance of the index, however.   Unlike some of the other plays here that trade less dependently on the market, this one seems to follow the indices better.

BCSI, even a monster needs a rest sometimes.    Of course, this one has the kind of float that reminded us of many great plays in the past.     We'd be alittle more careful trading this one.

Roller coaster...

...this is no walk in the park!..lol...once you're on a ride, it's not a 2 minute ride...this was a 6.5 hr marathon ride on Monday that vibrates and leaves you numb at times for an explanation as to what the hell is going on!.  This market has such a case of anxiety it's quite humurous at times. How else can you explain these intraday bounces of down 180DJIA /40 NASD and then bouncing off lows and then retrace back just when you think we'd finish a nice shade of green?.  Almost and incredibly seemingly off radar to the market was INTC guidance up.  Since when does a tech power house's news of this sort peeter out so fast.  Maybe this market needs a night to think this over and come back and do it right.  Simply, what we mean is this shouldn't be overlooked and forgotten.  Okay..back to the rides....

VMW, this was one ride that was straight up!.  Hopefully, we have overplayed this on the Journal so that that the majority of you were entertained.  We've definitely said enough of the prospects short and long term for this puppy to have it as a primary trading opportunity in this market.  Basically, it didn't go to those lame summer parties that dressed up like rallies and waited till September to kick it in by itself as we proposed.  Now, if we can get the tech sector to build off INTC news, we might just finally get it participating with the group.  At end of day, the daily chart looks like one of those explosive micro cap EPS stocks that we would be all over if it was in the $7's or 17's.  This would definitely get big attention heading into Tuesdays trading if it was a cheapie, unfortunately its in the $70's with a much bigger float.  Still, this chart that was painted might get VMW some new money coming in to play.

LDK, this one has definitely taken over leadership from FSLR as far as we've been concerned.  The deals have added up and the dressing was a deal to pay FLR 1bln to make those deals come to fruition.  We said Friday before the open this might turn into a positive spin and it definitely has as its gone from 52 to a touch of 59's in a couple trading days.  Receiving contracts is great for a potential stock move, we tried to point out it is also very good when you dish out the cash to someone else.  This is overlooked many times and every circumstance is different, but in this sector it gives these up and coming Solars credibility and therefore should be spun into a positive.  This stock seems to roll out some of the best looking set ups week after and after yesterdays NCH it looks to have again.  NCH.

WX,  this one has quieted down since the earnings up and downs and might have another storm up in the very near future, so we are watching closely for an opportunity to re-enter in a sizeable way. 

EJ,  hard one to figure out, it might be just a few sellers that are making it such.   So, when they disappear this might be a smoother one to ride. At this time it clings around its late August break out levels and 9ema that seems to giving it support. Once the trend changes it could be a pretty quick ride up, stay tuned in.

JASO ARTC TBSI  ...fill out the top of the trading list into Tues.

DJIM #38 2007

The past week started with some promising setups and ended with some lackluster action.   Perhaps, many participants are looking forward to next week as the tone will be definitely set by the end of next week.   As the credit crunch crisis is winding down, many of us are going to be looking at the economic side of things to wage big bets.     There's still over three months left in the year and to many, this is the make it or break it kind of period.     Everyone fared the summer trading a little different, some did ok and some didn't do so well.   Well, all eyes and mindset are focused on the next three months.   Historically, last three months of the year produced good results for us, going back as far as we can remember.  This isn't just a coincidence since same could be said for most market participants.    Companies tend to forecast rosy growth number and institutions tend to mark up their favourite stocks to boost their overall performance in the winter.   That is a powerful combination that can benefit the retail traders immensely.     This is an overall picture that we have to keep in mind.

When you get down to the actual business of picking individual stocks and trade, you still have to stick to the strategy you've seen the most success with.    For us, the same strategy we've been using along with the appropriate level of caution we've been implementing have gotten us through a pretty good year, so far.   Here's a few pointers we like to share with everyone.

1. Stick with winners!  The ones with strong breakout that are hitting 52 week high should be the first ones on our trading list.

2. Trade with volume, the ones that breakout with above average volume are the easier ones to trade and have a better probability of follow through.   We have seen many failed breakouts that looked like results of well orchestrated trap by hedge funds.

3. Cut down on unnecessary speculations, if you aren't sure with the setups or not familiar with the setups, there's no need to play if aren't confident to handle it decisively.

4. No need to speculate on earnings, and unless you are trading on insider info, you just don't have the edge.

5. Cut the loss quickly, as a professional trader, we not only take losses frequently but we also accept it as a fact of trader's life.   

6. Go for the most obvious setups, the most probable setups, that's how you grind through a tough market.  Use the charts of our most recent plays provided to possibly guide you,  read the intro in the section.  This weekend edition provided by Blacktruck consists of BCSI CROX CUB DRYS EJ EXM GLDN GRMN ISRG JASO LDK MR ROS VMW WX

7. Get to know DJIM traders' trading style.    The better you know how we think and how we operate, the better you understand how other professional traders handle a particular situation.    Believe it or not, we know many of our members' trading style really well just by reading their posts from time to time.    Bottom line, trading is much like a sport where you got to know your competitors well, and use it to your advantage.

We've written many journals up until now and pretty much all of the points above were covered in one form or another in our past journals.   It's definitely a good idea to review some topics we've covered in the past to improve your own game.    We can't continuosly update our trading methodology as we attract new members, some research on your part of past journals would greatly help your understanding of what goes on at DJIM.  A search feature is available to get you started.

Petro-Currency

Growing up and then trading from Canada,  we'd never think we'd see the day the CDN$ reaching parity with US$....guess, they waited for us to be nice and far away for the historic day!..lol...OK...now back to the US markets we trade, a market we've had to greatly outpace just to deal with the greatly appreciating CDN$ over the last 6-12 mths.   Luckily our goal at DJIM is not to produce paltry returns in the single digits or the teens'. Anyway back to the pitch as the futball fans know it as ......living 3 minutes away from the Chelsea pitch on afternoon game day is quite the experience for any sports nut...or drinker!!

So...yesterday was hardly unexpected after the sprint we've had this week, the valiant effort of many to keep it where it was most of day was good to see.   Somewhat surprising was to see dip buying come in so early at times.    It would be a victory of sorts if we could end week basically unscathed without a serious short correction with the loss of momentum.   Despite the small caps, mid caps indices leading the way down in the afternoon, we were pretty well and running from the morning with our niche of players we had you following and hopefully trading.

MELI, LULU, WX, the trio we gave before the open outperformed anything and everything off the bat.   MELI steamed from the 33's to 38 and considering the force of the move maintained its lofty intraday perch and closed at 37 and change.  After 2 days of action, we know this is on radar now for those into a little action.    LULU and WX sprinted to new highs as well from the open.   If some of you want to trade broken down stocks and patiently wait and wait for the all mighty bounce....the best to you, but as part of the DJIM methodology says... look for the strong,52 week highs, which at more times than not is the easy play!.    These 3 had all these colors after their strong showing we pointed out in a market that was treading water the day before.  Wondering if Cramer put on some Yoga gear to demonstrate his bull-ishness on LULU last night..maybe a LULU thong or the LULU Hot shorts!.   Sorry to make you sick in the morning...

EJ,  we think we have walked you through this trade in the past week or so.   As we've been saying the accumulation is most likely a forward to Merrill Lynch's initiation of the stock.    In many a traders eye, the play could be over in terms of they got what they wanted this week and moved on.    The 22 level was a no a technical no brainer and was an exit door for some.   This is the one reason one should use charts, to use them as a guide to where you might find resistance or support for your stock.    The Merrill Lynch initiation will come today, we hope its enough to fuel this some more and at least get it on radar of more money.     Don't expect anything to send this to the moon though.   Just like pre-earnings runs, this might have been a pre-coverage run led by those in the know...we'll see shortly depending on the $ tgt ...if they give one.

APOG,   this one we bought into and as usual with it maybe a little early at 26, as it did its traditional yo-yo action on day of a good report. Every Q this one seems to beat and we were waiting for the exact action we saw later as this moved from 25' to high 27's intraday and finished strong.  The potential in this stock short term is in the charts. You can easily see the last two reports on gaps and then the follow through to higher ground.    Not sure why this got so beat up during the summer and frankly don't care after these earnings.    ----------------                Reports Q2 (Aug) earnings of $0.40 per share, $0.04 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.36; revenues rose 19.7% year/year to $217.7 mln vs the $209.1 mln consensus. Co raises EPS guidance for FY08, sees EPS of $1.43-1.53 vs. $1.50 consensus, up from $1.37-1.47; raises FY08 revs guidance; co sees revs growth of 11-13%, which equates to ~$887.1-903.8 mln vs. $877.17 mln consensus, up from revs growth of 10-13%, which equates to $879.1-903.1 mln. Co says, "We remain optimistic about our businesses and markets served, and are positioned to meet our longer-term objectives of 8% annual revenue growth and 20% average earnings growth through FY10. Our solid year-to-date earnings along with our strong backlog, commitments and bidding activity give us confidence in our ability to grow revenues and earnings through FY10.

LWAY, the chart was getting our attention the day before and the open, even on light volume showed us some potential....simple as that.  A nice move ensued and volume was pretty good on the day.   Hopefully, the chart came to a few more overnight and we will have some follow through action today.

LDK JASO MR ANIK ICOC GS ,   top out our trading list for Friday.

...Mirage

A mirage..that's all this summer subprime crisis was!. A big head head fake just for some to buy lower and then have a meteoric rise to new heights...distortion created with lots of blowing of cold and hot air!. Okay, maybe not completely true but how else do you explain this recent rebound, yesterdays possible breakout moves off what could have been perceived as bad morning news.  The subprime news, the Citigroup headlines had no impact on the markets.  When was the last time we saw this?.   We've turned on a dime with every headline from this front....but not yesterday.   This is old news simply and the market wants to get on with earnings and what is generally the best Q in the markets.   A beneficiary of this market was plain and simple to see, one niche was the DJIM covered plays that blew past the competition.  A simple point to our trading methodology is to have a sane niche of stocks to follow, not an insane number that can't be watched closely enough to recycle. This is why we have a watchlist/play list that we hope you follow.    It saves you time and money.  Yesterday was a day for our beloved..

FSLR, an alert last week to a potential breakout move this week was the solar play to be in.  The other two we closely follow, LDK got 'briefed' to death yesterday on it's equipment pushouts,  JASO did nada and is selling more of their ADR's this morning.  If you shadow our plays, you saw we were only on FSLR back at this time.

GS, noted the tight range of trading the previous two days in yesterdays Journal.  On a good market day these ranges can balloon to the upside and this is what we saw here.  We are about collecting points and not the % gain, so to us this was up to a 8pt move yesterday. With FSLR and GS there was almost 15+ pts from our final remarks on Friday and yesterdays morning Journal highlighting them.

DRYS, EXM continued forward to new highs with some IBD print on the sector and a couple of price upgrades in the morning. TBSI got back in the hunt and is close to highs.

MR, EJ, moved to new levels and JRJC proved to be a worthy trade for those familiar with it.   Now, we just ask WX to get some game and it will have our most recent China plays on even ground. Oh yeah..where was BIDU yesterday?.  Lets no forget this rocket ship when looking for a good intraday trade.

VMW, we don't cover much tech, but VMW has been the one we have traded the most.   Finally..this one is acting with the sector which is leading the recent parade and not playing on its own terms. $90+ is in reach now.

ROS, GLDN our Russian telco plays are not be forgotten as long as they cling to highs and therefore offer more upside potential in the near future.  WBD moved to 114 intraday after it was noted as a possible reversal play from 111's. This one provides some volatile thin action with some large spreads. the worst thing you can do is put in market orders in this play.

ANW, LULU cover the ipo watchlist here.

LWAY, we don't know what rumor was out there but this recent play was a hurricane yesterday. Congrats to any that have held through. Yesterday was exit day.

CSCT, the chart looks good but we have to keep mum on OTB stocks or we will have a flood of them on the forum. Sooner or later a bad one be printed on the forum and will cause a few to drown, so we try to avoid till they are listed.

As important as finding the right and easy plays, it is just as important to think out load and give our thoughts on plays like SSTR, even if you won't like it.  We're not talking about your Mama, we're talking stocks here.!    Hopefully, we saved some of you some cash yesterday.   Anything could rebound, we just have no interest at this time.  

We'd also remove GRMN off our watchlist. There are too many unknowns here now.  Last week gains look like a set up to the news yesterday. Those shorts got something to cheer about yesterday.

This probably covers 80-90% of the plays here recently,  if you don't have all day to peruse the entire stock world for plays then this list is all you need to carry you and your book.  It's not a lot of stocks.  This is just a reminder and for those that are new here.   Days like yesterday are the icing and come around quite a bit.   Just have money on hand for fresh stocks this new earnings season, as we noted in our last alert.

Bulls on 'roids and Pigs can fly..!.

Those seem to be facts now!.   This is what we saw yesterday as the Chinese bulls roared off the Asian markets, even when left at home alone with the SHANG on holiday's.    With every Bull shot there is a pig in it's footsteps.   Meaning speculation on junk ones was wild and you need to be careful at this probable late stage in the game.    Back at the ranch, the market was doing better than expected with not a lot of profit taking.   We added this footnote to a post before noon,  "Considering yesterdays action this hasn't been bad at all or meager for the small caps /RUT been green most of the day. Bunch of those sorts here having good days WX EJ BIDU JRJC LULU MELI ROS GLDN FSLR EXM TBSI..AZZ might still " .    The day turned from good to very good late in the session for these stocks and a few others like GS, VMW, CSCT.    The market continued to trade sideways and finished mixed, yet for consecutive days now, we were in the right place at the right time.     Hopefully, our morning Journal steered you back home if you've strayed!.     This was the true Bull shot of the day, the DJIM index.    There is really not much to say heading into today trading, except that hopefully we all played these shooters smart and took some off the table.    This is especially true with the gains generated by the Chinese stocks covered here.    Even the good ones will get nosebleeds.

A member noted and what is probably a good way to understand the Journal is to see it as us thinking 'out load'.  One thing is to shadow plays, another is to shadow our mindset, which is probably the better way to go.     We can't give buy/ sell advice, all we could do is show what we are buying and thinking.    Hopefully, it rubs off on you and improves your trading ways.    When we noted yesterday.."Now, we just ask WX to get some game and it will have our most recent China plays on even ground. Oh yeah..where was BIDU yesterday?.     Lets no forget this rocket ship when looking for a good intraday trade.".    You need to ask yourself why are we even mentioning these two that under performed the day before.    Simply, we are thinking ahead and with a big overnight Asian market these just might come out and play with the rest of the kids.   Trading is so much a psyche game, you need to think ahead and think what others will or might do.   Your gig is to get there in the early stage or even ahead of the herd.   We gave the below leads yesterday, clues into where we might be leaning and why.  All you needed was one or two to have an excellent day.  The language is simple and we'd all should have been prepared..

TBSI got back in the hunt and is close to highs.

VMW, we don't cover much tech, but VMW has been the one we have traded the most.   Finally..this one is acting with the sector

which is leading the recent parade and not playing on its own terms. $90+ is in reach now

ROS, GLDN our Russian telco plays are not be forgotten as long as they cling to highs and therefore offer more upside potential in the near future.

WX and BIDU( wasn't all JPM initiation), it was a matter if you build it, they will come!.   The build up was the overnight markets and these were prime candidates to play in the mud with the others.    Anyways, yesterday was a day for us to daytrade these high flying Chinese stocks and it occupied most of our day.    Now, we need to get back to basics and deal with reality and concentrate on the others like GS, FSLR, VMW, AZZ etc.  The EPS winners and ones to come and the potential set ups that we can all get in early on. 

We all need to be a realistic after two days of solid gains!

...The Love boat (ship)

Despite the major indices puttering along, notably the Dow as the big caps lost its allure thanks to profit worries hitting the A-B-C's and even an M of the big cap niche (AA,BA,CVX,MON), the DJIM closely watched index hardly blinked an eye.  This midday down tick included the RUT, rotting away till a late push made for a mixed day.   Life went on here, the main concentration here this week continued on the Shipping stocks and most of us were humming....Love, exciting and new..Come aboard.  We 're expecting you.  Love, life's sweetest reward...let it flow, it floats back to you....Okay, no romance here, but we were all waiting for more traders to get aboard our ships filled with iron ore and cereals to send our stocks higher.   Most importantly, we were waiting for those interested in a FREE ride and we definitely got this low floater discovered as it hit Briefingtrader and then late afternoon the more widely read day log that really pushed it.  This was our cry in the forum early and our cries turned to smiles as they profiled FREE late in the day.

The boys DRYS, TBSI, EXM, the secondary plays ESEA, PRGN started great and of course the idea of FREE caught on.   For a second lets turn back the clock to Aug 26 when we issued a weekend alert as the markets were dwindling, yet the shippers were making new highs.   What a concept buying the NCH is!.  This time it wasn't for an individual stock, it was for a sector.    Why not?.   This just stamps the over played methodology here of buying the strongest, those near highs and those making NCH's.   Same goes for the China stocks we've been trading.   The idea Tuesday at noon that this sector might go even higher after an already great morning proved to be true and TBSI had a nice and quick 5 point upside from the $50 mark.  Oh yeah, great job Briefingcom for picking up on the secondary plays to the big boys, it only helps our cause that was expressed here early this week.  We're not looking for the recent China speculative action to repeat itself,  so what we do is sell to the ones boarding this train late...sorry meant ship!.   Hey, every nice size cargo has to be unloaded at some time and we're not shy about doing it.    FREE, we waited long enough for this to be discovered,  our last note was early Tuesday afternoon and of course we were selling quite a bit into the strength.   We've always tried and discovered stocks before the herd as many of you know from hanging out with us at those seedy bars before.   There is money to be made in getting early, it is a clear monetary advantage to get to something first and use the later herd discovery as an advantage to your pocket book.   This was the case with FREE, even MHJ got  some print and pump in other circles.    We don't doubt this could go higher as this discovery on huge volume should give it legs and we'll trade it accordingly.   Our only fault with it is it has a knack of giving it up (gains) and until that seller is completely removed, we aren't so sure it won't again.   If using the big volume surge as a gauge this shouldn't happen...still if some profit taking takes its course in the big boys soon, this FREE will see it too.  The BDI jumped 3.6% and the fever will continue into Q1 `08, but not without a few hiccups.   We've seen them before eh?.  Not all up days are 3.6% on a index are they.  Also, don't confuse dry bulk ships with those carrying crude.   There isn't a worse area to swim in.

Unless the #'s, guidance from the big techs ( most importantly) is terrible, we are of the gut feeling the RUT will have a melt up into the late stage of 2007 and catch up to the indices that are making new highs seemingly daily. We're in the right place with the niche we cover if this happens..okay, when it happens;).  So, don't panic when you see the DJIA drift lower just over100 points if your DJIM play list is not blinking like yesterday.  Anyways, a very good week as we've been in the loop as to what is going to move. 

A few scattered names of interest/ focus that we have been adding to or looking to possibly get in, include................

VMW, tgt raised yesterday by UBS,    China's STV, WX ,EDU (eps next week, maybe a little run before off a NCH today), also dirty Brean Murray is here so after JRJC who knows what they might have in mind here,    GLDN, which regrouped and had a solid day,   CETV near highs,   CSCT which had some news out on revenue yesterday,  maybe even GROW on a reversal following some asset news yesterday and ARTW, following EPS midday. 

Fruits of the consolidation...

We now know why the market wanted to consolidate for the past few days, the market was setting up for action like today.    Ok, we have pointed out in the past few days that consolidation can be frustrating and not fun.    Fortunately, consolidation comprises down and up action.  Hopefully, today's action would make us forget about the frustration we had to endure the last couple of days.    Now lets recap some action here...    First, some of our members would like to know what's the point of recapping everyday's action at the end?    For starter, recapping the action would give us an idea what events and action transpired during the day so we can better prepare for trading ahead.    We can look forward to the plays that were doing well today, assuming good action gets some kind of follow through.    Secondly, by recapping the action, we'd have an idea exactly where we are in this market.     Compare to yesterday, today's events are much more exciting and meaningful, in our opinion.     By not having to review the action at the end of the day, we would simply start the next trading day half blindly, in a way.  It all depends how one uses the Journal, for many its been a learning tool of our methodology, our frame of mind.  This morning the Journal might have reminded you of SIGM recently noted here as a buy the dip earnings play prospect.  It had a great day.   Our lead was the China's and that we are still trading the lot of them.  This has worked for a week and today it spread to the more speculative lot.  Makes sense doesn't it that this part might try to get into the act sooner than later.  We also said the Solars heading into today are getting harder to see as an easy trade, today that spilled further as most finished lower than their opening price in a fast market.  Bascially, it's all in your interpretation of how you take the Journal in.  To most the Journal is 'leading' them into the next trading day, this includes recapping.

So it this market more of the same?   Are we expecting some better action in the near term or what?    We think today's the proof that we CAN definitely get some good trading action in the next little while.    This time, Fed is on our side and recent oversold condition coupled with the seasonal factor can and should propel this market to gain some upside ground.

Many big technology stocks did well today!  It's always good to see companies like INTC MSFT AAPL to carry the index weight.    As long as the Indices are in the firm green territory, we as traders can pick off little ones to make our play.

SIGM/PCLN/VIP/MBT, these are few of the latest earning winners we are busy trading today.    We have mentioned all of these before on the site, (a few for over a year) and they all notched a nch today.    This goes to show that even in a crisis environment, we can still have earning plays that stand out from the crowd.   We like all of their action and we'd expect follow through from them if the market keeps up the good spirit.    We'd also wouldn't mind buying these on dips as long as the 9 ema isn't breached.  If you want firm coverage reports on MBT- Russian mobile and VIP following it's earnings, send an email for the PDF's.

WDC, we noted this one following earnings Sept 11 on a premarket Journal note.  The stock was $22-23, today it hit $31 after raising its profit forecast including December.  In our view this a huge revision and a good market will definitely take note.  On the other hand this stock has performed well in rocky times.

China Plays, from early last week, we'd pointed out that many Chinese plays seemed to be stabilizing and we'd be getting our foot back into some of these names.   Today, the entire sector lit the fire and all of the names on our watchlist have done heck of a job with some speculative leading the charge.     Our strategy here is that since it's the entire sector move, we can not afford NOT to play even the speculative ones.  Just to point a few out, we still like EDU LFT STV WX CMED... as the quality ones but the speculative ones like CHNR JRJC EFUT... are also on our playlist.   Now we believe the move we seen today may last a few days because the last time we recalled, China sector move doesn't just pop one day and die.  Keep you eyes open for a possibility of more.

Solars, this is the area which we were concerned about heading into the day as per Journal.   We are a little concerned over the somewhat overheated action from the speculative solar plays but as well as the looming energy bill.    There's a very likelihood that there's going to be a "sell on news" reaction.   We'd like to see how some plays react to the news first before venture our way back in.    Because of many other plays out there today, we all can afford to take a little cautious attitude toward this sector for now. 

DJIM #49 2007

Tis the giving season and Tuesday afternoon,  we're gonna get some in the way of a FOMC rate cut.   Following Fridays data, a .25pt cut is the most likely outcome, but there are enough still in the .50pt camp.  One thing is for certain is the decision won't be unanimous as we'd all like and all eyes and ears will be fixed on the statement attached.  Unless there is a knockout grinch punch to the market in the language, we think the market will move forward and set it's course on continuing the recent rally into the holidays and New Year.   Basically,  just get this over with and lets move on the heels of last weeks bullish days as the indices finished near the weeks highs.  Last week many quality stocks continued to get out of their bases with many more bouncing off the 50MA with follow through days.   Also, recent quality earning stocks showed some life as quiet a few closely followed at DJIM broke to new highs during the week.    They include...

MA, ISRG, AAPL,  we have always preached set ups with NCH's in place or in sight.  The market started to provide these trading opportunities once again after a long lull as these leading stocks in the past regained their lofty positions.  That's the kind of action any growth investor or just any trader wants to see and trade. 

VIP, MBT, SIGM, WDC, PSEM are the other recent EPS stocks that reported very good numbers and are now being recognized and given spurts of buying leading to NCH's almost daily.   MBT and VIP have an overweight initiation out from Lehman this morning.

SOLARS, the picture was not so clear heading into Fridays trade, but as we noted there were a couple of buy upgrades on YGE and SPWR to possibly play a part ahead of the trading day.  These upgrades definitely fueled the solars up again as many had nice days, including JASO again and STP...FSLR ran up on rumors of a contract.  We've seen the firms 'lead' this sector forward before when they start with upgrades, initiations. We might have some of that starting up once again.

Our closely followed China stocks LFT, STV, WX, EJ, EDU snailed to a 2nd consecutive week of gains since we turned our focus back on them. The volatility seems to have been removed for the time being and we started to call this group of stocks a Mutual Fund as they creep slowly higher and higher.

After weeks of trying to find a decent play, the market has started to give us plays that fit our methodology, eg NCH's and we welcome it and will concentrate on the above sorts with the usual sector (solar, china, shippers) tossed in.  It is a time for all of us to look at the 52week high lists and find more names that might provide a good trade while they trade at these levels.  You will start to find many former DJIM site names thrown around in this crop of stocks as you do your nightly homework...BOOM FWLT FSTR GEF LIFC PTT RICK TXT VE WGOV etc.   You want to trade strength and get out of any bad habits you've found yourselves in trying to trade a corrective market, such as bounces etc.  This may really be the time once again,  if we clear tomorrows FOMC hurdle in one piece.

Pre Fed

Many are lead to believe that last couple of day's action is due to the anticipation of a Fed rate cut tomorrow.     We think it's a combination of many factors that are setting us up for some really good action in this month.    However, Fed is still Fed and anything they say tomorrow can have a dramatic impact on the course of this rally.      As far as we are concerned, as long as the Fed addresses the current financial environment we are in and it's willing to adjust its policy to help the market, we basically get a green light for the next few weeks.    If for some reason the market sells off the Fed news, and especially if it's some good news, we wouldn't be hesitate to buy into the dip. 

Now the playlist...

Over 90% of the stocks on our watchlist are green and we just have to be very encouraged by the market action today, but FOMC on deck!!.  We'll get into detail of some of the action here,

Solars,  this group has been on fire since the Energy bill.   If you miss the low of the group on Thursday, then Friday would've been just fine getting into some of the popular names.    Today we are getting some really good follow through on top of the good action from last Friday.   Our top favourites are now STP LDK JASO FSLR...  we are also trading SOLF CSIQ as well to throw in the mix.     

China Plays, we are actually surprised that some of the more speculative names are still holding up and showing signs of perkiness.   This leads us to believe that there's definitely more pop to come with the whole sector.    The quality ones we like had some mixed action today with STV WX outshining EJ LFT by a wide margin.     STV has a particularly nice breakout out of the recent consolidation off very good volume and we think it has potential to return to its former glory.    We are definitely trading more aggressively toward STV after today's action.   With LFT, the consolidation is still between $23.50 and $25 and it may require some more time to really break out of it clean.

EPS winners, MELI had a very nice breakout today on very healthy volume.  It notched a nch and sits well above the recent range.    We were really hoping for an intraday dip to buy some more but it just never came.   It looks like we may just have to chase it if we want to get some more of this.  SIGM MA VIP MBT continue to trade with this market.   One thing we have to remind people that the eps winners do trade in a rational manner so the further away they move from 9 ema, the more likely that they'd stall and pullback.    We simply have to be a little patient with the eps winners and have a bit longer term perspective.     

The bottom line, this market still feels unconvinced for a rally and many people are still underinvested.   Alot of negative news are being absorbed by this market recently and all these are all considered bullish sign.    We have LEH releasing earning this Thursday and that may give us a clue of how the financial world will react, which is very important to gauge the market sentiment.