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Entries in CUB (6)


It's still not

We are definitely a bit tired from the trading last couple of days.    For a little while yesterday, we were wondering why some of the little ones weren't participating with the recent market move.    Well, that was no longer a concern early on today.   Like we said last night sometimes DJIM stocks like to do it on their own terms and "come out strong the next day" after a day of non rally participation.  The little ones, namely NGA 17% to high of day and IDSA 16% to high, both had very good sorry... excellent days! and we are just glad they are behaving exactly the way we wanted them to.     What we are also being amazed by, is the resiliency of this market.   Earning plays, as long as they beat or guide up, are being bid up aggressively.    We haven't seen this much enthusiasm even during the winter quarter.

Whatever it is,  both institutions and retail clients are making money in this market.    This is a good thing.    We at DJIM, try to play a little bit of everything and try not to exclude ourselves from any potentially good opportunities.  This is also because we have a diverse group of members/ traders.   You'd see us playing a $100 stock as much as a under$10 dollar cheapie.   Why is it so?  We just can't rule out any possibility that a $100 play may give u as big of a bang for the buck as a $9 play.     As for our readers, we'd try to give as many heads up as we can regarding various good plays based on our experience.  Today, we tossed in a scalp possibility in GTI, still a earning play for traders tossing nice dollars and sizes around. This was a 2-3-4% possible trade.  Experienced traders can recognize the action and decide when to go in and out quickly, so a lead is all that is needed to something that might be playable.

Now lets get to the nitty gritty of things...

NGA,  small stocks attract the most attention and it's no exception at DJIM.   Briefing had a little profile yesterday but we wouldn't call it a most optimistic summary.   In any case, the stock rallied hard today and action today looked inevitable based on previous days' action.    What's driving this is the possibility of an IBD100 inclusion.    This is still quite a far way off.   However, as long as the attitude and mentality is to trade toward $15 level, we'd know exactly what to expect and how to deal with it here.    This NGA, also had smells of institutions stepping in, based on volume.   Whether those institutions are hedge funds or mutual funds or momentum based short term funds, we don't care.   It IS in play and that's the way it is.   We just have to take advantage of this liquidity and trade it in sizes.    Oh yes, trading in sizes does matter a lot in terms of potential profit and losses.     Generally, when a stock has strong momentum and trade in liquid fashion, we tend to take on bigger size and ride them higher.

IDSA, so what's next?    Hopefully, some of you have locked in some profit from the previous days' accumulation.  We're sure most would have been happy seeing mid 15's by Friday close!.   Why sell now you ask?  We say, why not?  We've been saying 12-13's are where we are buying for days now.  If the whole point of playing IDSA at this point is IBD100 theme, then you can't help but to think that the end might be near once it IS included in the list.    If somehow the trading characteristic of IDSA changes after the IBD100 inclusion, then we just have to change our approach a bit and trade accordingly.    For now, we are treating it as just an IBD inclusion play.

MA, wow is a good description and this is the reason why we are playing some of these 100 dollar stocks. Up 7% or  8 pts since yesterdays buy in. We added some early today on its strength and  are looking for further upside as long as the market is in a good mood.  We got what we talked about in the Journal and have decided to hold and add more despite it hitting our target of getting in 130's!.

SPAN, we covered this buy-in pretty well in Alerts section and we are very happy with its move to $26 today and about 5% off the Alert time. We knew about this one for a while but the action was too slooooow. Now we have had 3 consecutive days of 90k+ volume up days and this stock must be getting on some screens and being discovered as an earnings gem with a tidy mini float.  Still, don't forget stocks don't go straight up though for days!.

Anyways...Great day whatever you are trading here! ....A few for freaky Friday below..

DNDN, timing is really everything when it comes to this one.   Some of you can argue that you had this one in your portfolio for days and you knew it's gonna go up all along.   We say that's just as fine.   But to us, we used the capital to played all those big point gainers while some ppl are waiting in the flatlined action from DNDN last few days.   No biggie, it's just opportunity cost.   To us, we wait for the right moment and strike.   We struck today late and have held our shares overnight.   Hopefully we get some good follow through tomorrow and ring the register.

CROX, this one is almost sure a gapper for tomorrow and we bot a couple in AH just so we are in the groove as well.  The guidance is just crazy!

Also a small position in CUB at the close to test out the waters.  Maybe this blowout number gets some upgrades in the next couple of days and breaks recent high. It's not flyer, but they all don't have to be.



Even Dow's winning streak has been as long as our Blue Jay's losing streak, we know that one of these days their respective streaks will end.   At least in the case of Dow, it's more probable.    Today's the day?    In a very dramatic fashion, Dow closed just 4 points lower.   This might as well be a winning day for both indices.   For those of you that haven't kept the score, both Dow and Naz were off to some good downside action earlier in the day and managed to climb all the way back.   Is this resilient or what?    Again, we will have another test tomorrow with both the CSCO reaction and Fed meeting.    In either case, we think this market will probably go higher still.  During this streak, the majority of the gains in the indices was in the first hour or so with the rest of the day seemingly distribution going on.  Today..that all changed as we saw another side of this market!

In terms of DJIM land, some of the stocks were down earlier but were managed to climb all the way back and some.   What we do here is to make a note of those stocks that managed to come back and those that did not.    For those that come back, we kept some and even added to some.  For those that did not make the afternoon rally, we pretty much cut them off from our position list.   Still, we had about a dozen or so stocks left in our account.    A day like today gives us traders a perfect vision of how strong some of our plays/picks are.   When the market is really green, it's just that much harder to tell.   When the market goes through a shakeup earlier and comes back, you do want to see your favourite stocks to perform exactly that and maybe then some.   If not, time to move on.   There's plenty of good candidates left and new candidates coming up down the road.   There's never no need to be hung on any particular play.   After all, these are just stocks, we don't have any sentimental feeling toward any of our plays.  Just a game!

Here are some notable ones...

NGA, this one definitely surprised us today.   Normally on a weak morning like we had today, a stock like NGA which had such a strong run-up would definitely feel some pressure to pullback some.   Well, it did, sort of, on very pathetic selling volume.   Maybe, everybody has the same play book as us or maybe, this is just one hell of a strong stock.    In any case, we have to be quick to recognize what is going on and act accordingly.   The action, of course, is to chase it higher.    We chased some from low 13s all the way to high 13s.    Bear in mind, we have also lifted our aggressive buy on dip points from low 12s to high 12s, or maybe even higher depends on how it performs next little while.   So basically, when our somewhat conservative attitude toward this one proved to be an incorrect call, we just had to correct our approach as quick as we could.  This is a high stake game where opportunities don't wait for you to make up your mind.   They come and go and you as traders, just have to grab them to the best of your ability.

LXU, this one reported earning yesterday and that was the catalyst.   Boy, would you look at the volume past two days.   This stock has never traded this much volume according to our memory.   Believe us, we have followed this since the $8 range.  It was one of the first DJIM Journal pick entries back in August 2006 or was it 1706 as Mr. Bush would think and slur.    Basically, we like this action a lot.   Sector is on fire with POT SQM TNH...  So why not with LXU?   We think given the valuation of this one, which is still a baby, institutions are getting in big time.   We call it an instant lift of valuation.   How else can you explain the volume?.  From what we recall there is incredible value if this company gets broken down into different segments.  Maybe this idea is again refueled.

GTI, a ha, another IBD play you say!   Well, this is just added bonus we feel.   Whatever is happening with this one, it's going toward the right direction. One thing this a turnaround story that is being liked.  The volume suggests it isn't common retail folks like us that are getting involved, which is good.  

Besides the above, we also like the setup in CUB NTLS TRCR TNH EDU.



DJIM #21  2007

Sitting Bull wasn't basking in his laurels, recent victories come Friday. Instead, he and has band of M&A and buy back share brothers decided to charge signaling yet more accumulation. Once again the army of bears didn't have the muster to do anything to curtail this frenzy buying.  So we march forward and with every stoppage in play, we continue to expect the ways of the Bull to keep us going with MSFT-AQNT type hoopla creeping into the market. So that's the big world, what's happened in our little world, niche. Well, what can be better than having 3 closely followed DJIM make it to IBD this weekend. Not to shabby to have three (NGA-TBSI-GTI), be the top three new inclusions at # 5,9,26.  Hey even Curlin our sentimental Derby pick, stuck it's nose out with a flurry in the Preakness this weekend.  So..all good seemingly as we head into the week after what appeared as distribution earlier in the week. Still the NASD and small cap indices finished lower on the week and this is the ho-hum in the market that continues to concern us.  Maybe this time these market players play catch up this upcoming week. A hunch is they do.  Also, keep the big oils up as we head into Memorial day. Stocks like OXY, SLB, UPL should do better than the small cap names in this sector because bigger caps have been the leaders. If there is big money wanting to play this sector, it should go to stocks like these. On the charts, these look great and when called for, we like to trade these names.

KHDH, was a new buy in for us. The co's earnings for the most recent Q came out early last week and are up in the Alert section. We've had our eye on it for awhile and this earning as seen by its 2 days with 100k+ volume it got noticed.  We 'll look to add on dips or further strength. This trades in a fashion similiar to a CPY type and so it is possible to do both.  IBD composite rating is at 97.  This might suit the investor who has picked up our May buy in plays like RCCC, NTLS, CUB, SPAN, AFAM.  A few companies that don't get the recognition here on a daily basis because they are just nice and steady plays that you can't say much about on a daily basis.  Speaking of...lets give some of our secondary plays spotlight for a change. They are not secondary for those that can't watch like a hawk the faster plays day in day out from DJIM. These holders are doing just as fine this month without the diet of Pepto.

RCCC, touched on 29.70 from the May 4th buy in at 26.50ish levels(12%). Trades nicely a $1 above the 9ema for the last few weeks. Not much you can say about it steadiness, except watch the 9ema as a guide.

NTLS, also an early may pick up in the higher 22's as another wireless play a la RCCC.  Just like RCCC this EPS play closed with a NCH at 24.4 and is gliding on air just above the 9ema. A possible 8% is nothing to sneeze at in a couple of weeks.

CUB, a buy-in low 22's off earning popped to a $24.30 close Friday. Just another 10% play so far. As much as we like to play the NGA's,IDSA's, there is nothing like patting an account with consistent steady 10% plays.

AFAM has bounced from 20's to 24 since our premkt earnings note May 8th. 7 bucks off highs is only 3 now.

FWLT CROX MA LXU GTI TBSI SPAN SPAR IDSA MR MTOX, other prominent May DJIM plays that we are trading at different times depending on set ups and market conditions.  As far as TRT, FWLT has definitely been the play as its stands 20% above that premkt intro.  Meanwhile, TRT nests back to 9-14ema and at 19 is below 19.50 premkt initial price off EPS. Quite a few of you did not like our stance on TRT after its earning. After our full write up last week it declined 15%,-5 straight down days, we hope you had a change of heart if we saved you a buck or two. Is it going to bounce or is going to fill some of the gap?

NGA, okay... so this followed the script since we first alerted/ bought into at $10, April 30th. The stock traded to high 15's all last week and the suspense was over for us at that point.  The only suspense came back in the last 15 minutes or so Friday, actually it wasn't suspense but a 'you better get there' plea. The inevitable finally happened and now we see if this was only a IBD inclusion play or not?  In other words, will this have the kick to get to the 20's split time. We'll see if the 100k+ comical push in the last 3 minutes will be a forward to a dump-eroo in the morning now that it made it on. Of course, we hope it finishes with a new closing high and continues to be in play.  Consider the flight of IDSA, SPEC recent additions to IBD100.  The following highs on Monday have not been reached again.  We were not warning on Friday, we are only throwing caution to the wind after a possible 50%+ run here.  We see no reason to blow 'any' of the profits generated in the month off NGA and have walked away with plenty in the high 15's already.  It makes little difference to us that we are at those same prices Friday AH's.  We'd be no better off yet if we hadn't sold off most earlier.  Still we have some and most likely will sell into any morning strength and then re-position if further strength is shown during the day or days ahead.



Carnage in the far east...concentrated

Fortunately, the damage in Shanghai did not spill over to North America.  On the contrary, we actually had a pretty good day for a lazy summer session and many DJIM type of stocks were particularly shiny today.   If the market was to get a shake, you'd have seen the beginning premarket.  Nothing of that sort happened as the FXI stayed calm and a few Chinese stocks were actually green. Instead of any housecleaning, we were buying most of the day.  Does today's action mean it's a sign of things to come?   We'd like to hope so but we aren't wagering all of our eggs in anticipating anything.    Basically, our game plan is not to get too over our heads in worrying about the big market movement, but rather, focus on individual plays and sectors that are attracting hot and momentum money.    Afterall, we are not economists that emphasize on theory which goes into the far future but we are traders that focus on the live battlefield level action day in and day out.    There are quite a few interesting plays today, so we are not going to waste anymore time and just go right into them...

TBSI, this is a play that we have been involved in the last couple of weeks or so.    What we really liked about this play is its text book style of action.   Sure, it doesn't have the heart pounding NOVC like of action but this one gave us the kind of setup that most traders would be happy for.    This one built a beautiful flag pattern last little while and it shot up today and closed near the high, with some good volume.    This is the kind of play we love b/c not only it gave us enough time to get in during the setup, but we are also able to built up a comfortable position that mattered in a very controlled, conservative, and highly probable way. A nice 5-6% day.

KMGB, this one came to our attention before the market opened and we immediately put it on our watchlist.  We actually put this one up back in 2005 and it doubled by the next morning.  That was its first stellar EPS Q.  Today it came out with earning that not only beat the analyst's estimate by a nice margin, but looked very good year over year, and sequentially, by our book.    After further checking its IBD number (92 98 now), we just couldn't help but start buying up shares.    Now, every once in a while you get a high calibre, high momentum IBD play that gets lots of traders' attention and we think this one is a very good candidate, after NGA that is.

ATLS AHD, a few weeks ago ATLS came on our radar after it acquired some assets and made a nice move. On the weekend, we had put AHD on our watch for the week because the chart made a NCH and was related to ATLS.  Before the open this all came together in a different way, the idea behind these names and a trade on news.  ATLS, which owns partner units of AHD announced the APL (Atlas Pipeline, LP), had made agreements to acquire assets of Anadarko and then Atlas Pipeline would distribute $$ per limited partner unit and increase distribution....LOL. Confused?. Hell yeah and all this doesn't mean anything to us!.  All we know is this was another 1 billion asset deal that was liked once, so why shouldn't it be once again. The fact the charts were prime and the trading action called for an entry in our book.

LPHI, this one definitely caught some wild fire after it guided up intraday. Early this year, we put this one up after a good EPS Q to look at. We wondered if a life settlement stock can actually get that sexy look.  It didn't for traders, but quietly it had almost doubled since.  We really couldn't speculate the true effect today until after the initial excitement settled down. This one can have some whacky spreads.  When it looked like there isn't any sign of pullback, basically there's only one place to go and that is up.   We are also trading this one aggressively. Co sees Q1 EPS to be approx $0.49 per share vs $0.11 single analyst est compared with earnings of $0.05 per share for the same period last year. The co also expects Q1 revs to be approx $17.5 mln vs $8.4 mln single analyst est compared with revenues of approx $6 mln last year.

TNH, after about three weeks of consolidation, we think this one is ready to break out again or at least test the high area.    Yes, it's a $90 dollar stock and we aren't discriminating any stocks that we feel have the potential to pull a good move. We all know the power of the MA, CROX, FWLT expensive plays now, don't we!.  We are monitoring the action closely. The mid May high is around 92.50 after the sell off.  Today was the first day it closed over 90 since.

There were quite a few new positions /stocks taken today.  This shouldn't take the spotlight away from this Q's DJIM plays that had a very good day.  TRCR +14%, CUB +6%, RCCC 3.9%, IDSA +4%, GTI +2%.  Not bad for a day the DJIA up 8pts and the NASD up 4pts.



DJIM #25  2007

This is definitely a helluva of a start to the summer. The recent scare of back to back to back days of declines leading to last weeks broad rally is volatility at it's best and every traders dream.  It was just on the 14th (3rd day of declines), we said lets all take a chill pill and not act hastily with our books and wait to see who/what puts the bears into the woodshed.  Seemingly, everyday since there has been something to reignite the Bull and his herd.  Friday was the crowning as tepid inflation numbers brought back hopes of better growth to go with it.  If you had the QQQQ on level2 as the CPI came out, you'd think you won the lottery before the open.  An important ingredient to last weeks rally was being prepared.  The only way to do that is having stocks in tow or watch listed to recycle into that were strong to begin with. We think we were definitely ready here at DJIM by having 'strong stocks' as the market finished its tumble.  In DJIM #24, "Even after the tumultuous week there are more than a few DJIM's still trading near highs or making them. These are the stocks we are concentrating on. The partial theme here is to always play strong stocks!. Common sense says a stock that survived last week and finished near highs is a strong stock...".

Included in this list were :         KMGB    LXU    TNH     CUB    RCCC   LPHI     GHM    MA     FWLT 

1 week % performances          21.46    8.16   19.15   4.37  19.73    25.72  10.28   9.80   5.49

Simply all you needed was a healthy dose of DJIM stocks to recycle if need be.  It is so much easier when you have the right watch list without having to seek out what is hot in a fast and furious market. This allows you time to concentrate on trading and getting in early if you were not there already.  Saves time and money.

Beyond the above DJIM stocks that we will continue to stalk, we also had a few names..old and new come to forefront last week...

One of our all time DJIM favorites, MFW was picked up on the hunch they will do something with their cash, well more of a hunch the hedgies will feel that way.

KHDH was one we didn't get much out of recently but oh boy did it show its magic for the last 3 days since alerted $58.5`s. A fast 5 points-8% to the high of Friday.

AIRT, was introduced Thursday $9.60`s area and almost hit $11 at the open the next day before digesting its previous days gap and big percentage day.

SDTH, we just couldn't buy and type fast enough it seems. We started buying the low 5`s and by the time we got the alert out it was 5.30 and then exploded to 6.25 in the next 15 minutes. We said what we saw as angle to this play and soon enough it seems Briefing saw it the same way. Fertilizer and China with earnings.   See their write up posted in Forum by a member. 

AHD MFLO VSNT pretty well round out the play list.

..most importantly today...A Happy Father's Day to our friends here!




The importance of holiday trading...

To say that we had a pretty good day today simply does not do its justice.    What we had today is one of the best days in 2007, in our opinion.   This is not an exaggeration.   Of course, you still have to be familiar with all of the names that we have been trading during the past few weeks, in order to fully appreciate what we feel.     What caused the market action today?     Two words, holiday trading!    Still, this is just not just any holiday trading.     In order for a good holiday trading week to work, we definitely need some ingredients.    One, there has to be money waiting to be put into work.   Two, market has to be near at or close to the high in order to attract the momentum.  Three, there needs to be something optimistic(earning season this time) that people can look forward to.    Basically, we had just about all three ingredients and we kicked off this holiday trading week with literally a bang.     This is back to the topic why we are stressing the importance of holiday trading.   Now we know what makes a good trading environment, and if you are like us dedicated professional, or if you simply have a passion for trading, this is the kind of week you just CAN NOT let go by.   Folks, taking a much needed week off and enjoy the weather and other activities is fine if you need it badly.   For others, this is a week where you can probably take some serious revenge from this market by profiting from quite a few opportunities.

Yes, market is pretty forgiving right now and many traders are doing just fine.    We at DJIM, however, feel that this is the kind of time where we have to absolutely out work and out perform other traders in order to make our lives a little easier when the going gets tough.    See, it's always about making a killing during an easy trading environment and survive during a tough environment.    If you can't make a meaningful percentage gain in this kind of market, what odds do you really have when the market heads the opposite direction.

Our game plan, is to lock in those potential huge winners with sizable positions and ride it on the back of this favourable condition.     We have been ultra aggressive today in terms of adding positions(mostly familiar ones) to our portfolio and doing it with a much bigger size than we'd normally do.      There are simply too many stocks to name at this moment so we are gonna highlight some worthy ones tonight....   if you have built your watchlist around DJIM names last few months, you'd know which ones are doing good today.


PENX, what may take some stocks a year to accomplish took this stock only three trading days to achieve.     Sure, I'm only talking about its 35% runup since the time it announced its earning, excluding its gap gain of 20% off the news.     This one is just HOT!     This stock actually surpassed our most optimistic expectation up to this point.    So, the rest will be just so easy and simple at this point.     We'd stay aggressive with this one.

TNH, holiday trading brings out some animal spirit out of many stocks and we didn't expect anything less from this one.   This one got a NCH today and closed near its high of the day.    Given its past performance we'd expect some good follow through off a good move.

LPHI, this one still needs to battle over 9 ema and today may be a good cause to get back in some with the assumption that the play is not over.   We did buy alittle back today but we'd watch this one closely in case if it shows any kind of weakness.

CUB, for a while, we felt the play might be over but today it literally breathes new life into this one.   It took out the $30 mark convincingly and it looks as though it's ready to start a new leg.   Again, this is an unusual kind of week and we'd always bias those that breakout and make new highs.

FWLT, this one spent literally a month during its current trend line between 100 and 110.   Currently sitting at the upper end of its trend line with a strong close, again given the bullish sentiment from the market, we feel this may be able to breakout cleanly.   We bought some today and looking for the breakout.

RRST, we actually traded this one a while ago but it didn't do much for us.    We are back in it again and thinking this time it may get some momentum going.    This one actually has a pretty high IBD rating(98 95 as of tonight) and we think with the recent RS, it can potentially move up in ranking.

FSLR/LDK/JASO/TSL,  so we added TSL to our mix of solar plays today.    This group basically goes with every other momentum plays.    When market is up, count on this group to shine.

Some of the other stocks closing at high or strongly and we've been trading actively include DRYS AZZ RIMM GTLS RCCC SNHY BTJ TBSI TRCR MR EDU...