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Entries in SPAN (7)


It's still not

We are definitely a bit tired from the trading last couple of days.    For a little while yesterday, we were wondering why some of the little ones weren't participating with the recent market move.    Well, that was no longer a concern early on today.   Like we said last night sometimes DJIM stocks like to do it on their own terms and "come out strong the next day" after a day of non rally participation.  The little ones, namely NGA 17% to high of day and IDSA 16% to high, both had very good sorry... excellent days! and we are just glad they are behaving exactly the way we wanted them to.     What we are also being amazed by, is the resiliency of this market.   Earning plays, as long as they beat or guide up, are being bid up aggressively.    We haven't seen this much enthusiasm even during the winter quarter.

Whatever it is,  both institutions and retail clients are making money in this market.    This is a good thing.    We at DJIM, try to play a little bit of everything and try not to exclude ourselves from any potentially good opportunities.  This is also because we have a diverse group of members/ traders.   You'd see us playing a $100 stock as much as a under$10 dollar cheapie.   Why is it so?  We just can't rule out any possibility that a $100 play may give u as big of a bang for the buck as a $9 play.     As for our readers, we'd try to give as many heads up as we can regarding various good plays based on our experience.  Today, we tossed in a scalp possibility in GTI, still a earning play for traders tossing nice dollars and sizes around. This was a 2-3-4% possible trade.  Experienced traders can recognize the action and decide when to go in and out quickly, so a lead is all that is needed to something that might be playable.

Now lets get to the nitty gritty of things...

NGA,  small stocks attract the most attention and it's no exception at DJIM.   Briefing had a little profile yesterday but we wouldn't call it a most optimistic summary.   In any case, the stock rallied hard today and action today looked inevitable based on previous days' action.    What's driving this is the possibility of an IBD100 inclusion.    This is still quite a far way off.   However, as long as the attitude and mentality is to trade toward $15 level, we'd know exactly what to expect and how to deal with it here.    This NGA, also had smells of institutions stepping in, based on volume.   Whether those institutions are hedge funds or mutual funds or momentum based short term funds, we don't care.   It IS in play and that's the way it is.   We just have to take advantage of this liquidity and trade it in sizes.    Oh yes, trading in sizes does matter a lot in terms of potential profit and losses.     Generally, when a stock has strong momentum and trade in liquid fashion, we tend to take on bigger size and ride them higher.

IDSA, so what's next?    Hopefully, some of you have locked in some profit from the previous days' accumulation.  We're sure most would have been happy seeing mid 15's by Friday close!.   Why sell now you ask?  We say, why not?  We've been saying 12-13's are where we are buying for days now.  If the whole point of playing IDSA at this point is IBD100 theme, then you can't help but to think that the end might be near once it IS included in the list.    If somehow the trading characteristic of IDSA changes after the IBD100 inclusion, then we just have to change our approach a bit and trade accordingly.    For now, we are treating it as just an IBD inclusion play.

MA, wow is a good description and this is the reason why we are playing some of these 100 dollar stocks. Up 7% or  8 pts since yesterdays buy in. We added some early today on its strength and  are looking for further upside as long as the market is in a good mood.  We got what we talked about in the Journal and have decided to hold and add more despite it hitting our target of getting in 130's!.

SPAN, we covered this buy-in pretty well in Alerts section and we are very happy with its move to $26 today and about 5% off the Alert time. We knew about this one for a while but the action was too slooooow. Now we have had 3 consecutive days of 90k+ volume up days and this stock must be getting on some screens and being discovered as an earnings gem with a tidy mini float.  Still, don't forget stocks don't go straight up though for days!.

Anyways...Great day whatever you are trading here! ....A few for freaky Friday below..

DNDN, timing is really everything when it comes to this one.   Some of you can argue that you had this one in your portfolio for days and you knew it's gonna go up all along.   We say that's just as fine.   But to us, we used the capital to played all those big point gainers while some ppl are waiting in the flatlined action from DNDN last few days.   No biggie, it's just opportunity cost.   To us, we wait for the right moment and strike.   We struck today late and have held our shares overnight.   Hopefully we get some good follow through tomorrow and ring the register.

CROX, this one is almost sure a gapper for tomorrow and we bot a couple in AH just so we are in the groove as well.  The guidance is just crazy!

Also a small position in CUB at the close to test out the waters.  Maybe this blowout number gets some upgrades in the next couple of days and breaks recent high. It's not flyer, but they all don't have to be.


DJIM # 19 2007

" Go hard or go home", off last weekends Journal held through and true this past week.  Opportunities are abound and this recent activity has been the time to take advantage of what we are being given by the market gods and what we are giving you.   We look forward to more of the same this week.   Fingers crossed!.   By the looks/ feel of it, only outside influence from abroad can curb this enthusiasm we are seeing.  So keep your eyes on the markets overseas for any hints.  This way we could all say, FIFO..first in, first out.  Until this possibility or some other event occurs, we will keep on riding the earning reports and more.  Last week, we had another fun trip...NGA, IDSA, MA, SPAN, a few nice tradable opp's in DNDN, VOXW, GTI.  Clearly DJIM is being selective and getting into right plays!   Also a few late in the week pick ups with potential in FSLR, CROX, we hope they have a good market to show its true deserving colors.   What's important to remember is what we've discussed before and that is having cash on hand to buy.   Sometimes this means even cutting a EPS laggard after a day or so,  just so you could get into a better play.   We are even doing this as the number of stocks has grown in our book recently and we'd like to keep it manageable .  We don't want too many, we only want the best possibilities!!.   Examples of this might be a VSEA, CUB type.  Their day might come, but if a CROX shows up after you just pick up a starter in a CUB the same day, it is better to ditch the CUB to the curb.   If you already made 7pts in a MA in a few days, there is probably a better chance you'll get something close to 7 points elsewhere faster again,  so switch up to a fresher expensive name in this market for now and consider coming back to the play left behind if it behaves right later.... now the names crossing the DJIM wire...

SPAN, a crawler being discovered is just what this is. A nice pick up last week and quick but steady 2 day rise of 10%/ nearly 3pts to highs.  Overall a 30% move on the week and some hesitation, consolidation might be in order. #5 rank in IBD leading Medical stocks with 90 97 this weekend.

DNDN, definitely this was worth the wait for a 'strike' and the timing was perfect. You could almost see it coming as it traded to $19 AH's Thursday.  We concluded Thursday Journal note on DNDN with 'ring the register'.   If you didn't on a potential 3 point move or 17% on a speculative stock play...well that's just silly.  It was only the 4th of May...the15th is approaching and we will look for another ring the register entry possibility as that day nears.

FSLR, ...NO!..we are not playing the solar sector here just yet again,  we are trading the FSLR on the heels of its earning and guidance.  Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.07 per share, $0.07 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of ($0.00); revenues rose 391.9% YOY to $66.9 mln vs the $52.8 mln consensus. Sees FY07 revs of $370-$400 mln vs $326.97 mln consensus.  Simply FSLR is clicking in its execution and capacity ramp ups behind closed doors and this can't be overlooked.  We don't know what ASTI or the likes have cookin', so we go back to our favorite from this space last Q.       We bot in the afternoon as the stock started to take out the days high levels over $66.

RCCC, this was a earning play we've been looking to add again for some time.  We added late Friday.  The co' already pre-released their Q1 back on April 16 and has Bear Stearns riding a upgrade on it.   The co's call was only Friday and w/o listening to it, we'd say there was nothing negative said judging by Fridays potential breakout move.

CROX,  with a gap over $10, we really didn't expect to see more covering just yet on the first day.  It will come and we expect nothing less than to be in the 70's here soon market willing.   Maybe it will be as soon as Monday, if it does as our MA holding on its 2nd day.  To our member wearing CROX while trading, consider the static generated by CROX's is knocking out respirators in Swedish your trading platform!!

ATV,  if the market is hot , we expect IPO's to feel quite fuzzy as well, even if this sec ain't the hottie now.  There is always or will be an appetite for China IPO's and we can't overlook this one after DJIM successes with EDU, MR, HMIN in 2006-07.   This is already 2X over IPO price.  Let it sink in first, if you are wanting more than a trade possibility now.  We are trading it now.  The company runs TV direct sales programs, which are typically five to ten minutes in length, on four nationwide China Central Television, or CCTV, channels, 28 national satellite TV channels, four international satellite channels operating in China and eight local channels.

NGA,  definitely one of the best gainers/ buy in of the week by DJIM early Monday.  This one does not always trade as pretty as it did last week, we expect some dippers along the way as this makes a possible move into IBD100 life.   Again, we are playing the potential IBD inclusion with these types, not the aftermath of sticking on the list at first.  We'll decide on stocks making IBD when it happens for a further trade possibility.

TO, you have to accept these plays act up in spurts and make sure not to be taken out with the gyrations on little volume.  If it goes up a dollar quickly, it could do the same the other way before going back back up.   Patience is required on these types that don't have much history if you decide to enter them.   Volume is an to day.   Anyways,  a nice move off 9ema and a NCH, Friday.    Keep VOXW on radar for these types of moves and not necessarily off 9ema, it could be just a PR of some sorts that rockets it again. 

IDSA, hopefully you played it like us and are sitting free of it this weekend.  If you didn't cash out with another late day opportunity over $15 Friday, well then you don't wanna hear this again, "you might be heading for a disappointment come Friday 4pm with some opportunities missed in other places".  It was quite disappointing from a distance looking in on this, not only did not close over $15, it was a feeble effort to do so late in the day.  On the hand,  it was also a disappointment it didn't crash late in the day off the 'exclusion' of not even holding $15, so we could buy back in the $13's and do it all over again next    We might just have to anyway!.   Instead it was last months, IBD inclusion play at DJIM, SPEC showing it up and taking IDSA's thunder and making it to #25. 

Other earning names from this Q, we have secondary scattered positions or trading/ eyeing still...VSEA, NTLS, WST, SSYS, CUB, ADPI, ALGN, TRCR to go with usual suspects  BTJ, DXPE, MFW *EPS out Friday AH, CPY.  This pretty well rounds out our trading crop this Q.  

Keep an eye on GROW in the morning off EPS....with Gold being up up as much as 15%(approx) this year at one point, you'd think they had influx of funds into their precious metals last Q and would produce a kick ass report.   But, we are not here to think, we are here to 'DO' and act. So we wait for the report.

Yeah..Yeah our Raps lost..great game! ....but our Raptor claw logo has taken a chunk of the market while up and we ain't messin' or are we knockin' the little good luck charm off the site for now!...




'Breakdown....Takedown....Everybody wants into the crowded line... Breakdown....Takedown...You're busted...Let down..your guard..blah blah're busted!".  Yeah, we're humming a guys tune who probably already had a beard when we born!.... but hey, what's the ruckus today?..We still in the loop.  Cheer up, it's not the end of the world!.   You know what was looking like the end of the world?....

The market being up something like 24 of 28 days!!.   What percentage is that?.   Sure , ain't Shaq's free throw percentage!.  The point is simple, what the "Disney" did you expect to happen sooner than later as we ran the market higher and higher.  Today should not be a shock to any of us. If you've ridden the DJIM plays recently, you are probably safely out by today anyway on most positions with nice gains..   But seriously, if the market shakedown scared you today, you still had a perfect storm to exit with gains in tow today. say?

Let's see DOW down 147, NASDAQ down 43.   What really stunk the DJIM joint out?    Well, percentage wise it was NGA!.    But, we've all expected and actually welcomed a decent fall after this 40% run with DJIM hands all over it..   This was going to happen, no matter if the market got smacked or not today.   NGA was prime for it.   Besides the NGA bit,   there was not much damage to anything you might be holding off DJIM. You still could walk away today all in one piece if that's your choice.

FWLT  TNH  SPAN  CPY  FTK  IDSA  FSLR  KRSL  ADPI  are some recent DJIM names traded that managed to post green end of day.  Tomorrow..all these can get the smackdown and other barely reds like TRCR  LXU  MA  HAYN  NTLS (1% or lower) might as well.    What you had today is exit opportunities to leave with almost all of your recent gains in these names.   The next day you might not!.     Be it tomorrow or any other time in the market, if you survive one might not the next if the slide continues.    What we hate is to be part of any domino effect, so today we did some selling into this orderly action of our closely followed/held stocks.  We don't want to blow the past months of good work out the window.   Safe than sorry heading into a weekend at this point.   Still...there was no action in any DJIM recent play that money screamed get me out of! .  We like the group we are covering at this time and will monitor closely as always.

As full time traders, we look to end of day for some fire sales on our favorite winners lately.  We've talked about buying a pullback for days on NGA...last night the last.    What we said today in the forum as it traded $13.80-14.00 from it's highs, is the market conditions today basically stamped out a chance for a orderly pullback and buy possibility that we expected from it before weeks close.   If the market (NASD) is down 20 points,  we do not know if panic will set in on any individual stock and take it down further.   We can't buy such a fresh pullback as NGA hung around $14 at 2pm!.   As a trader member pointed out minutes later, "would rather buy a pullback within the context of a stronger market day... Opportunities are made up easier than losses.".    Minutes later NGA crumbled to 13.20.   So how do you know when a pullback is sufficient? it the one down to $13-8-14.00 or will there be another as later today to 13.20?....We simply don't know and we're not going to guess at $14 with a falling market.    Basically, why play with fire as the market starts to crisp and burn.   Simply, we wait till end of day to decide if we want any.   We do it with strong stocks to buy in or add more and this is still the way we go if considering to recycle a recent big winner on a dip.   End of day.    Yes, we picked up small amounts of LXU, NGA  end of day.  This is nothing in size to when we were playing these recently.  We all should have enjoyed these 2 runs, we are not blowing it away with a substantial position now on a dip in a falling market today.    If any sign of momentum comes Friday in NGA, we'll be there in sizes again.    Call it another starter to monitor today, that's all!.   Still, the issue with NGA should not be if it catches a pullback and heads to $15 tomorrow.  What's 13s-low 14's to 15's at this point when the play has been here since a premkt alert at 9+ and soon after buy in low $10's. If you won big from low 10's already, what's the rush now?. Let it sink in and let it show a definite change in trend.  Is this a possible secondary leg coming up?.   Was this the retracement we were waiting for?.   We'll know soon enough (Friday).  We just went through IDSA remember, so you know what can happen.  What it might do at /if $15+ is a whole new different leg and we'll decide then how to approach it.

For those new here, our Aert-Comments are either our buy-ins or leads we are considering for a buy.  Today was a nice combo to an alert from Monday on FRPT to go with our buy in alert on SPAR today.  Both had stellar days in a bad market and were involved in the same contract.  Yeah looks like Cramer gave a hand to our pick ups again today.   We were oblivious to who or what or why...we just saw momentum happen at different times today for these names.  The idea was here Monday following the Armor Holding M&A activity for a look at  FRPT with its chart, today it paid off as FRPT and the company making the chassis (SPAR) for it all won. SPAR last trades at 31.60-32 AH. 



DJIM #20 2007

Rundown of DJIM's closely followed heading into Mondays trade...

TNH, definitely one the big winners on the week with a 24% pop.  We profiled Terra Nitrogen, fertilizer maker, back on April 8th (DJIM #15/#16), we said if you catch it on the right side, it could be quiet the ride. The right side has been now with Nitrogen in great demand and because of NG pricing.   The stock closed at $95, up over $30 since April notes.    Remember, she can be the volatile one and the higher she goes, the higher the chances of seeing greater volatility.

NGA,  though this one did not finish over $15 as per IBD requirement,  it might as well have finished above it to ease the suspense.     So is this more than and IBD play or not?   At this point, who really cares?    As long as the volume + price action do not die down, we are going along with it.   What we feel is that there are momentum hedge funds behind the work of this one which explains the consistent volume.   We like this one because of its relative liquidity compared to some of the other low priced IBD plays.    Why does it matter?   For those of us who trade more than a couple of thousand shares at a time, this is the kind of action that can get you in and out with relative ease.   What we are watching out for is the blow off top volume, as a warning sign.   So far, so good!. Our note pre market indicated some selling might come off the insider selling news.  This happened and provided a nice dip into the $12's early on.    Hopefully, some were able to get more there or low's $13.   The fact this occurred probably held NGA off $15 for now..   Why?.    If you bought high $12's, very low $13's Friday, would you not have sold at the high $14's if you loaded up in the morning???.  We did some.   Once this moved beyond $13.50ish, you knew new money would be coming in so not to miss the run to $15 and above.   No better place to sell for someone making a morning buy in the 12's- low 13's, don't you think?.     We're patient.    IDSA now NGA.  In so many ways this played out just like IDSA last week.    Hopefully, you were prepared to trade it smartly after last week.

IDSA   so the stock made it to IBD#43, a week later than it was "supposed" to.  Lol   Well, things will definitely get more interesting from here.   We think the exposure of IBD does bring more positive things to a stock than not.   It actually brings this one to many more traders' attention.  The OS/float definitely stands amongst the IBD 100 names.    As long as this one is getting more exposed, it's unlikely that the play goes away anytime soon.   We are using our usual approach with this one from now on and look for new highs as an excuse to add and 9 ema as key support.  Simply, the traders gut told us this was the one under $15 that was going to get riled up friday in our morning note.   We added in forum the night before to a IDSA question..Needs volume!.  We pointed out volume was at the previous days high quiet early, Friday. This was indication to us more was to come and a good chance this was going to take IDSA beyond $15+.

FWLT, wow is the word to describe the action in this one.  In our opinion, this is the kind of stock that's much much easier to play compare to NGA, IDSA and definitely the SIF's of the world.   Why?   This one is a liquid monster, an institution's heavy play.   Even as retail trader, we have no problem of going big in size and playing with the big boys.  You can't do this on a SIF type.   Of course, if you have a smaller sized account, this one still provide lots of fireworks even for small lots.  For every 100 share lot at $78, this made you $1800 in a few days.  Again, we say, don't back away from the expensive plays such as this and the MA's so easily.... As we tried to point out, we felt FWLT had more short term upside potential from the pre-mkt prices of FWLT ($78) compared to TRT's (19.50).   Based on closes Friday, FWLT is up 22% and TRT is 12% from that  possible morning buy-in and has been way more liquid to trade.

LXU, this recent DJIM pick up is gaining traction and starting the ride the coattails as many are starting to see it as a Ag play.  Their chemical biz seems to be thriving as seen by EPS results and it's definitely one of our favorites.   The ticket here to consider!. POTash is around $200, TNH, is near $100 and if I might have missed the ride, maybe my only only logical cheap play here might be LXU??.   Hmmm.    It is in top 5 performers in the Agriculture section of IBD movers.   Besides, there is a new #1 IBD Industry Group and it is Agriculture and Fertilizer...really, we're not fertilizing you!

SPAR, this pick up pre market the other day at $30 was a quick bump to high of $32.70.  We sold some Friday into the Cramer push and later picked some up cheaper again.  Selling into strength generated by outside influences, such as Cramer is a no brainer.  This one falls into another sector that is thriving.   We were watching this angle since AH takeover by bringing FRPT into the DJIM fray Monday. SPAR is intertwined here as they are the chassis maker dealing with FRPT.

CPY, we put this CPY back out at $80 Friday on alerts as a buy in again.  It manged to climb another $3 bucks higher at one point.  Just keeps on ticking and it is more than the retail investor buying 100 lots here that is still driving this higher at these levels.

TRT,  we are holding some TRT but on a short leash to see if a IBD crush comes.  The play here started back in 2006 based on EPS and their China connection starting what we thought would fuel this compnay.  We played it now for another 2 Q's  and this is the first Q that we saw revenue slow down.  It was actually a tad lower sequentailly and Product reveune dropped some 20% sequentially.    So has the Asian buzz hit a wall as these numbers might indicate?.    At this point after 3 excellent Q's,  you should not be looking at YOY Q numbers here,  but sequential growth.   If this was a big Semi name that showed no sequential revenue growth,  besides the under 300k in net income, it would likely been a ho-hum report as analysts would not be looking at YOY if they had been placing estimates on the stock for this Q.    They would have looking at the 3 previous Q's since we've been following it and their expectations would be based on that!.   Simply , sequentail reveune growth has been curbed some it seems for now.   $6.4>  9.5>  9.9> 14.06 and now 13.6mln in revenue for the last 5 Q's.    An advantage of no analysts covering a DJIM stock is seen here.  The problem is the company gives no guidance, so you don't know if the revenue has hit a peak and if EPS next Q might hit a snag as well.   Anyways, we're in for some, this just ain't one of our top holds at this time.  We'll see how it starts to play out early in the week.

SPAN, a May pick up( profiled in Alert sec), is the little engine that could, a slight pullback mid week and then a NCH to close out the week.

SIF, a hot market definitely brings out hot money in the micro caps. At this point anything new is beng chased up if the headline numbers stick and we joined in with some of you for a quick trade.   Definitely, some of you guys got more out of it than us!.   Great!.   With so many plays on our plate Friday, we left this while the exuberance was high and while it was still possible trade the bigger lot sizes to make it worthwhile.  We don't know if that will be the case by mid-week, if we wanted to sell a big lot hold at a decent price.  Time will tell.   You see, some plays are taking EPS to a different level in this market, as in potential one Q wonders being run as if they will be what TRT, BTJ, DXPE, NGA in the beginning of their cycles.  Those companies were turning around and you could see by their growth figures.  Not only YOY growth, but sequential revenue/EPS growth as well.   This is how companies become IBD inclusions.  We see pretty stagnant revenue growth Q over Q's at SIF with one good EPS Q under it's belt now.   There is no saying this company can pull off another going forward, despite being in a good sec.   We don't see it as 2 Q's with upside EPS, last Q was almost all government grants income that made up the EPS #.  We're not knocking the company, we're just saying it's not for everybody to trade here, especially if thinking one EPS Q will make it the next NGA, BTJ, DXPE etc.  This simply means for those considering playing SIF starting Monday,  be careful if thinking this almost 100 year old co' will become a solid player into the next few Q's.   DJIM members need to differentiate the type of plays conducive to their style and abilities.  This is all we are pointing out here.   For those giving it a run....keep pushing and we might be back to help out.   IBD numbers are on equal terms to TRT's and made it on Aerospace IBD hot list this weekend.  Institution holdings are about 25% in this name, if their Blackberry's were not working overtime selling Friday, this upcoming week might get some of it.  If the shares get in retail hands, who knows what can happen in a happy market.  Will leave it to the speculators for now and concentrate on companies producing revenue, EPS growth Q after Q.

CROX FSLR TRCR ADPI HAYN NTLS MA SYNL, all behaving fine after being followed closely here following their EPS this Q.

HDNG TWIN FTK  added to IBD or moving up as in HDNG case after EPS #'s last week.

This market is moving clearly off the earnings of S&P co's, small caps etc. and we at DJIM definitely are simply in the right niche at the right time!


Taking more out...

Of course, as we start the day, nobody has any idea how that day will turn out.   Being a trader, it's extremely difficult to prepare yourself "well" for the day.    If you have been in this game for as long as we have, the hardest part of the trading is to anticipate a market "turn".  Sometimes you just go with your market sense, sometimes all this is, is your gut.  Well, we feel today's action is discouraging at best.    The action from indices may be deceiving as there's really no sense of urgency of cashing out.   We feel that under the circumstance, it's best to be more cautionary as oppose to hunky dory.     Maybe it's just us, but we definitely feel that certain plays are getting a little bit tired.  All this might be coinciding with the driving force recently and that is earning season is wrapping up.   How can we tell?   We watch the combination of volume + price action and their behaviour relative to the overall market.     Many if not most of our trading decisions are based on our past experience, and so we decided to reduce our exposure about mid way through the day.     On the other hand, if the market decides to give it another quick push, we'd be there quickly and do our part.   As always, buying decision is far more easier and quicker to execute than selling. At this point, we think weve had a great earning season, we are not about to get lackadaisical look on our faces watching our profits wilt.

There is a couple of stock setups which we feel we need to mention today and let's get right to them...

NGA, this co., oddly enough, announced that they are going to have a 3 for 2 split.   In our opinion, what the heck is the management thinking?  Yes, we definitely do not like this announcement and we reduced most of our position earlier during the day.    The stock, in our opinion, is liquid enough which does not require a split to attract more "investors".  We don't go with management reasoning this will make NGA more liquid and available to investors, including institutions of course.  3 for 2, just doesn't cut it.  Funny thing also, we'd also highly doubt that most of traders who are involved in this stock are long term investors.   In our experience, companies which have announced split at this price level have not fared well, most of the time.   Of course, we aren't just going to ditch this play for good and stick to our emotional opinion.     The IBD play is still on target but we'd be more cautious if we decide to get back into this one again.   

CROX, if it wasn't for the weakness of the overall market, we might have been a bit more aggressive with this one.   Nonetheless, this one had a new closing high and we added a few times to day, including near the end of day.

MTOX, this one actually turned out to be possibly the best trade of the day.   We threw out the 'lead' before 10am and soon were in it mid 26's for a run to 28.  When you have a nice quick gain and the market shows signs of a turn, you have no choice but to give up your new pick. Maybe..we should have bought back end of day as it fell back down to low 26's, but we were just not in the mood to get cheeky.

SPAN, RCCC, NTLS, AFAM, these recent alert plays are humming along quietly in the background and we've used that to sell some just in case.  These have been secondary plays in sizes as the NGA, IDSA's, LXU etc. have been the primary plays lately.  We still have some scattered shares of these, but it is nothing that can do any sort of damage to us.

ERS, we picked up some AH's, just couldn't ignore the 40% revenue increase with the stock hovering near recent low's. This could be just a flip into any strength tomorrow. We'll see if there is any appetite for this old gamer.


DJIM #21  2007

Sitting Bull wasn't basking in his laurels, recent victories come Friday. Instead, he and has band of M&A and buy back share brothers decided to charge signaling yet more accumulation. Once again the army of bears didn't have the muster to do anything to curtail this frenzy buying.  So we march forward and with every stoppage in play, we continue to expect the ways of the Bull to keep us going with MSFT-AQNT type hoopla creeping into the market. So that's the big world, what's happened in our little world, niche. Well, what can be better than having 3 closely followed DJIM make it to IBD this weekend. Not to shabby to have three (NGA-TBSI-GTI), be the top three new inclusions at # 5,9,26.  Hey even Curlin our sentimental Derby pick, stuck it's nose out with a flurry in the Preakness this weekend.  So..all good seemingly as we head into the week after what appeared as distribution earlier in the week. Still the NASD and small cap indices finished lower on the week and this is the ho-hum in the market that continues to concern us.  Maybe this time these market players play catch up this upcoming week. A hunch is they do.  Also, keep the big oils up as we head into Memorial day. Stocks like OXY, SLB, UPL should do better than the small cap names in this sector because bigger caps have been the leaders. If there is big money wanting to play this sector, it should go to stocks like these. On the charts, these look great and when called for, we like to trade these names.

KHDH, was a new buy in for us. The co's earnings for the most recent Q came out early last week and are up in the Alert section. We've had our eye on it for awhile and this earning as seen by its 2 days with 100k+ volume it got noticed.  We 'll look to add on dips or further strength. This trades in a fashion similiar to a CPY type and so it is possible to do both.  IBD composite rating is at 97.  This might suit the investor who has picked up our May buy in plays like RCCC, NTLS, CUB, SPAN, AFAM.  A few companies that don't get the recognition here on a daily basis because they are just nice and steady plays that you can't say much about on a daily basis.  Speaking of...lets give some of our secondary plays spotlight for a change. They are not secondary for those that can't watch like a hawk the faster plays day in day out from DJIM. These holders are doing just as fine this month without the diet of Pepto.

RCCC, touched on 29.70 from the May 4th buy in at 26.50ish levels(12%). Trades nicely a $1 above the 9ema for the last few weeks. Not much you can say about it steadiness, except watch the 9ema as a guide.

NTLS, also an early may pick up in the higher 22's as another wireless play a la RCCC.  Just like RCCC this EPS play closed with a NCH at 24.4 and is gliding on air just above the 9ema. A possible 8% is nothing to sneeze at in a couple of weeks.

CUB, a buy-in low 22's off earning popped to a $24.30 close Friday. Just another 10% play so far. As much as we like to play the NGA's,IDSA's, there is nothing like patting an account with consistent steady 10% plays.

AFAM has bounced from 20's to 24 since our premkt earnings note May 8th. 7 bucks off highs is only 3 now.

FWLT CROX MA LXU GTI TBSI SPAN SPAR IDSA MR MTOX, other prominent May DJIM plays that we are trading at different times depending on set ups and market conditions.  As far as TRT, FWLT has definitely been the play as its stands 20% above that premkt intro.  Meanwhile, TRT nests back to 9-14ema and at 19 is below 19.50 premkt initial price off EPS. Quite a few of you did not like our stance on TRT after its earning. After our full write up last week it declined 15%,-5 straight down days, we hope you had a change of heart if we saved you a buck or two. Is it going to bounce or is going to fill some of the gap?

NGA, okay... so this followed the script since we first alerted/ bought into at $10, April 30th. The stock traded to high 15's all last week and the suspense was over for us at that point.  The only suspense came back in the last 15 minutes or so Friday, actually it wasn't suspense but a 'you better get there' plea. The inevitable finally happened and now we see if this was only a IBD inclusion play or not?  In other words, will this have the kick to get to the 20's split time. We'll see if the 100k+ comical push in the last 3 minutes will be a forward to a dump-eroo in the morning now that it made it on. Of course, we hope it finishes with a new closing high and continues to be in play.  Consider the flight of IDSA, SPEC recent additions to IBD100.  The following highs on Monday have not been reached again.  We were not warning on Friday, we are only throwing caution to the wind after a possible 50%+ run here.  We see no reason to blow 'any' of the profits generated in the month off NGA and have walked away with plenty in the high 15's already.  It makes little difference to us that we are at those same prices Friday AH's.  We'd be no better off yet if we hadn't sold off most earlier.  Still we have some and most likely will sell into any morning strength and then re-position if further strength is shown during the day or days ahead.



DJIM #26 2007

You wanna talk about a market driven on any hint of news..well we've got one, which is leading to volatility left, right and center. This is hardly a bad thing for many traders who are being selective and opportunistic.  We've noted a finish below 2990 NASD would give us maybe that bearish feeling, well 2589 Fridays close is really not it.   We are seeing recent leaders maintain their 'strong' stock tags and that gives some optimism that we won't see big declines with earning season approaching once more.  We are simply being driven by any news, unfortunately some old and some new crept into the market Friday. The old is the possibilities of a Bear Stearns saga unfolding, we all knew this could rear its ugly head one day or another and it is coming to the market now once again.  Frankly we like the battle between BS and ML.  It's funny.  All they are doing is pounding each others stock.  You think BS didn't kick MLynchs butt back on the market for what they did?.. They didn't do it by selling 100 ML lots.    The new news is the government intervention into the markets.  It started with trying to stop the BX IPO and then spilling into a full blown attack by introducing legislation that would more than double taxes on the hedgies, buyout firms and more.  This accelerated the selling Friday and we are clearly at the mercy of news.. any news.  If it's not the Yield, then it's the Gov's nose..then its the subprime stuff coming into the psyche of traders.  The thing that got this rally going was brought on by earnings!!.  It was earnings driven and the savior in all this might be that the focus will slowly turn to earnings in the media that kick off July 9th.   As we've said many times before, we don't see a market tanking just before earnings.   We hope this is the case this summer and with the SMH showing some leadership,  it might be the way to think.   Anyhoo.., what we will continue to do is be selective and opportunistic with a hint of caution, which is never a bad thing to keep you on your toes... A few selective opp's from last week, lead off for this week, everything else just keep an eye on 9ema, volume and  look over the charts posted.  They are there as a 'GUIDE' for those not so experienced, those who can't pull the trigger one way or, but most importantly SELL....Don't get beaten down in any position that you can't get back up from!....How do you know you can't or won't? ...well you don't, so don't risk finding out!

CMED, an early week alert for a buy in under $30, it traded between 31-33 for the rest of the week.  It has a few things going for it into this week. First, technically as you probably can see by its 30 minute chart.  Second is you throw it's IBD inclusion at #82 this weekend into the pot and stir. What you have is the ingredients to see this go through it's resistance from last week.

GTLS, a buy in in the $26's mid week this sustained its move and showed even better strength on Friday as it kicked up to $28.80 high. Another 1mln volume day and you start to think it is slowly being discovered. DRC is #64 IBD and this is the one GTLS was compared with as noted in a Journal entry last week.

LPHI, MACHINE!. What else can you say about it so far.   It trades in its own little world away from all the noise of the market. 

SDTH, it looks quite ready for another leg up and the best thing was maybe it didn't move yet (on Friday). Nothing like a few more days for some to digest the potential chart play here on a break if it occurs.

SPAN, this recent alert DJIM for a leg up is a trade idea for early in the week.  A helluva week for it and then a drubbing from $27+ to 24 on Friday intraday. Over 3 pts down on Friday market action down.  Thinking this will get a rebound , it is IBD100 inclusion at #73. 

You have to deal with what is front of you.  At this point, we have to admit the market took a drubbing last week and because of that we should be more cautious.  Nobody knows what will come out of the horses mouth next..or do we know who or what will be the horse that leads a stampede one way or another.   We just think earnings chit chat will take over shortly and the other noise might actually stop.  We'll see...let's hope!