..waiting room

As the Euro deals with more exhaustion (-.4%), the FX sensitive market didn’t have one of it's usual rally tailwinds.    Add the anticipation for FOMC minutes at direction of Fed’s thinking on QE, earnings  INTC,LLTC tomorrow,  bond market closed and it’s no surprise the market parked it for the day.  At least there was some action in the DJIM composite, casinos (WYNN LVS ) in the consumer section and JKS (solars strong) putting in some very nice gains.   FX sensitive base materials were a little light after a big week, Ag’ machinery name  CNH +4% led the corn trade, ferts ok, CF >3%.  The “clouds”  again were a ‘drag’ on the market as they came on sale once again.  

Not much of a read on the market,  just have to wait on tomorrow’s events.  Otherwise, staying selective, somewhat defensive in prep/ available cash for new earnings as market is prone to selling if any diversion in QE expectations hits the wires.

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Ad infinitum

Just imagine staying short/ Bear for the last 4-6 weeks counting off the days to the “day of reckoning“, while the market mercilessly inched it’s way up day after day, only to get a "sell on the news”  in Treasury’s, not equities today!.   Okay, maybe one equity (POTASH;)

As opined all week with reasons why ,  if the QE2 ‘consensus’ is correct, the market has reasons not to sell off as consensus thinks and we‘d see higher days soon instead…”if we get status-quo expectation revelations, this may likely turn out to be a non-event (yet choppy) and therefore, not necessarily sell the news event(s).”…The choppy came as well and we tested the previous days gap bottom SPX 1184, but all you had to do was watch the TSY ($TNX-10yr and 30yr sell off ‘ hard’ to know this market was going to hold. (SPX ~14pts move post gap fill).  *Recall, the premise here in October regarding the TSY into equities allocation shift,  if this wasn’t the harbinger for it at work today, it will be a big surprise!!

Probably some confusion initially as they released a NY Fed supplement, the pace (75bln/8mths) seemed a little light, but add the MBS and they will buy 110bln/monthy anyway.   This gap will be the ‘support’ line to look for ‘dip buying’ going forward.   If a subsequent downdraft to those levels occurs, it will be the global gov’ts reaction to QE2 and/or the eco’ data going forward (again more good data today).  So, let’s just move on to why we’re here and that is trading stocks (we’ve got DJIM’s eg. LVS, MOTR, JKS, MA  all reporting well and climbing since alerting most again in Oct.) and slap fines on ourselves if we ever note the ad nauseam “QE2”.    Eventually, ad infinitum (argument made repeatedly until nobody cares to discuss it any more) will win out and we can do it all over again with QE3 next year;)

Simply, Bears need a new ‘plan’ now…go to work, Cubs