Deadlock..
Friday, April 15, 2011 at 04:49AM Positive is market held 1310 close for a 3rd consecutive day. (note 20ma has moved up this week to 1315’ish.). Most will see the reversal today of some 150 DJIA, ~30 Nasd , 14 SPX points to highs of day as a positive, but if you glanced at the Shadowlist or any watchlist, you should notice single stocks were doing nothing. These same single stocks weren’t hit on way to 1302 SPX and it’s no surprise they didn’t move to upside on the reversal crawl during the day. This exemplifies a ES/ETF trade as real money remains sidelined in a cautious mode, while fast traders churn the ES futures/ETF’s. It’s a boycott in the market by both sides really as shorts are unwilling to pressure the tape lower allowing support to hold up quite easily and even bounce some. It would be a surprise if the market got any meaningful follow through on a Friday due to this type of action seen today.
The early blame game was on the euro debt situation (Greece)showing up almost a year later to the day. Firstly, in this view it’s an excuse as plans won’t change the way the situation stands now and so it’s importance is overblown today. The main issues for the market right now is with U.S govt (debt ceiling, we can add the Senate paper on GS for some spice) and earnings that has this market in a deadlock!
Also, a bigger issue than Europe today is some of the recent eco data that is clouding the picture some (jobless claims today). As yesterday, not sure who won today either, but if anybody is blowing it, it’s the shorts not taking advantage of all headwinds in the Bull’s faces today to create a bigger setback.
Rally, if this gets clearer….overhangs
- Debt ceiling debate, congress goes on holiday’s next week till May
- Earnings reactions improve and/or start seeing nice upside beats/outlooks
*Today, semi FCS upped guidance strongly and said guidance for upcoming was already ‘fully booked’, yet the stock sold off due to CEO saying impact of Japan are unknown. Talk about a fickle crowd again!. What is occurring so far in earnings might be described as’ sell on the news’, but it’s not the typical we’ve seen in Q’s past. Market should get over this phase, if earnings keep on coming with solid guidance.
Demi/ YourPersonalTrader
Surprising..good eco data, CPI hawkish, surprised single stocks haven't found that elusive bid. If it does should break Tuesday H 1321.