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DJIMSTOCKS- since 2006-  Toronto, Canada/ London UK

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Entries in ALB (2)


..U.S a little too respectful maybe?

Firstly, DJIM covered that earning worries were slowly being put to rest in Europe (>2% today) with solid & broad earnings over the last 2 days.  Unfortunately for many trading US markets this was put under the rug as all media reporting was on CDS spreads widening in Europe and poor reactions to US earnings that came in, good or bad.   What was supposed to be an important micro week turned to the Macro until earnings/outlooks from many market behemoth’s hit Tuesday night putting many worries (Japan impact/ death of the PC) to rest on this side of the pond.  Naturally, we’ll still see misses and not so rosy outlooks this Q, but it will be company specific issues. Not all management is created equal and this Japan tragedy definitely tested some CEO’s grit.   Besides, misses, bad outlooks occur every Q, not just after a crisis situation.

This (earnings) is one ‘what if’s’  we discussed in DJIM #16 as an Upside risk  and reason to rally.  Knowing the ‘Upside risks in the market plays into alerting SP1295 was likely a buy point while market digested SP downgrade Monday morning.  Considering, the market has melted up 30 SP handles and about 5 more post AAPL-EPS in 3 days since,  it has caught many on their heels.  The question is will they step forward and help push the market over SP1340 or will we continue to be range bound?

Well…not to spoil the exuberance, but we may see overnight ES highs be the highs tomorrow.  Recall, we noted we may have exaggerated moves in either direction this holiday-shortened week.  When a move is fast and furious as this one is with all focused on an overnight supposedly ‘healthy’ semi/tech, it is very easy to overlook a few things in the underlying market.  A few of these are negative, a very heavy bank index (multi month lows as loan growth is disappointing, Mortgage insure biz as well) and the Rails to a lesser degree. Add the fact not all think semi concerns are over with and once a lot of the short covering is done with, expect longs to take this gift rally profits instead of buyers to come in with conviction.  Also, those who have vacated their desks early this week will be in line.  Note, semi sec is still way off Feb Highs with many underwater waiting for a life boat. This rally might be it.

Of course, there is the endless supply of ‘Macro’ headwinds on the table, at least Micro won out for a day this earnings Q.


Momentum/ earnings/ winners of ’10 –  Semi’s up ~4.5% led the buying in broad market, DJIM’s '10 momo names were led by VMW  earnings supporting peer names here like  CRM  APKT  FFIV,  >7-9%.  JNPR  was one stock where a disappointing guide still found buyers (this was noted as something important to look for in Tuesday’s AMC reports), helping FNSR and peer optical plays.

Consumers-   Our lux apparel FOSL UA  RL TIF  >2-4% had very nice morning with all hitting intraday fresh highs. WYNN  was the highlight off earnings.  Noted broad strength in an update would likely include Autos linked stocks, components up 4.5%, Auto 3%.  PII - Polaris Industries, Inc. earnings standout.

Commodities –  Action could have better considering USD was getting whacked. Ag’s Ferts/Steels under the tape.  ALB -  Albemarle Corp. , old DJIM standout Earnings in materials.


Not everything a drift...

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Late weekend newsflow out of China,’China to switch some FX into precious metals and energy’, had the PM bugs touting the end of USD.   An hour into the open, the herd jumping on this wire fell off as the trade backfired in most hard commodities with USD, even treasuries lifting.   A symptom of Europe closed for business equals an illiquid FX market, add the fact commodity linked stocks were off very little signalled the markets are really waiting for Bernanke on Wednesday (the decision will hit at 12:30pm/Bernanke hosts a press conf. at 2:15pm). That was the first hour and nothing changed by close, including shares not changing hands.

Consolidation was what we were looking for heading into the mid-week and this was just some of it playing out today with no hard eco’data and earnings taking a backseat to Bernanke.  Tuesday will likely be more of the same.

In all, trading days like this you don’t need to peruse the market drift for stocks to trade.  A glimpse onto the Shadowlist  early reveals enough action to possibly trade just off earnings related information.

ALB , initiated last week off earnings popped ~5pts/7%,  SOHU  had good earnings +8pts, SODA  a price target increase  to $50 /+8%, TZOO +7% on momo from earnings and price target increases. 

EPS reports in the next 24hrs off our list include,  APKT,CMI, ININ, UA, KEYN,ILMN