..now just repeat

As if on cue (DJIM's ;), despite a very ordinary flat open,  the market roared soon afterwards for the first hour…”we may have some follow through with risk assets (commodity linked stocks, growth stocks) playing some catch up.”. After days of underperformance, it was the RUT~2%, not the DJIA that pushed the market to SPX 1300 as ‘ dead cat bounces’ just discussed in our ‘momentum and commodities' section updates ensued.  Rotation occurred as the materials/ tech(momo) led the way.   All in,  the RUT excelled, but this is only a dead cat bounce until it at least makes it back into the Sept – Jan channel (closed at ‘R’).   The NAZ faces the same 'R' in its chart and both are hovering around 20ma.  It was nice to see short covering (mostly) in the first hour come into ‘indvidual stocks’,  but the lack of conviction for further gains is still evident as the market flaltlines rest of the day.  On the SPX look to 1307’ish for “R”, not 1300 as an Initial claims under 400k should spur a move.

Shadowlist

• Momentum/earnings/“winners of ‘10 –  The flyers, CRM RVBD NVDA RHT etc.’ finally caught a bid due to…”positive takeaway it was FFIV’s reversal from $102 -$107 in the green. ….Earnings positive was an upbeat JNPR”.   JNPR, ^1.50 /4% off premarket price after a subtle earnings reaction, it speaks volumes for many techs’/ clouds so it definitely helped the sector mood. 
• Q4 earnings update - we’ve been anticipating better EPS reactions post FFIV AAPL GOOG due to bar being lowered and today small caps were prime examples of this occurring from JNPR, FNET, MSTR, KEYN.   AMC, NFLX  fits into this premise as do a bunch of strong tech earnings with favourable reactions. (QCOM TER etc.)
• Commodities –  Materials, one of the top sectors today climbing ~2%.  Steels, (X)  led early, related name CLF  and WLT  joined in with nice days.

Keeping the 'beat'...

Just as the playbook had it written up, the Bulls punt return team was ready to go…”A shallow dip to Monday’s SPX open gap (if hit) would be expectation for dip buying.” . Once again dip buyers see the market through rose coloured glasses and shrug of CSCO as company specific to close flat.  Same premise exists within the broad market discussed, more importantly, there is plenty of earnings stuff to trade away.  If you’re an investor in cash, you are literally short the market.

Shadowlist

• Momentum/earnings/“winners of ‘10 –   2 of the EPS play stocks noted in Journal this Q,  JDSU >3%, JNPR >7% negated CSCO’s abysmal guidance and helped other networking stocks APQT/ BSFT  ~4% each within DJIM’s list.  This was helped by Alcatel-Lucent earnings and a 2007 IPO at DJIM, IPGP (use DJIM search for more on co’), an optical laser play that guided up big time. Timing couldn’t have been better as we’ve talked a trade back here the past 2 sessions.  Also, good to see is even AKAM  did not drag others in ‘sympathy’ as this group has been prone to in the past.
• Commodities –  Mildly better action in Steel, coal linked names, but overhang exists following hike/ Brazil.
• Financials – quiet in space.
• Consumer/Q4 Earnings –  added WFMI on Journal yesterday and it continues to show earning winners are getting ‘v.positive ‘ reactions.    This is something we discussed (below link) post bad reactions in mega names and thus bar being lowered etc. early in the season.   Also, if a stock gaps 5-10%, it is still possible to get in and make points as in WFMI  $58’s-61 today, RL  yesterday,  APKT  and many more have demonstrated.  IPGP   was a little crazy much. Excellent earnings are being rewarded,  it’s as simple as that.

http://www.djimstocks.com/djim-journal-1h-2011/2011/1/21/may-start-to-see-better-eps-reactions.html