Year of the Pig!

We are definitely enjoying this first trading day of the Pig year.    Of course, the word Pig in Chinese is usually associated with prosperity as opposed to our association of greed.    But today, we are just enjoying being a pig, in either association. lol      Action is pretty broad across the DJIM land and many stocks gained momentum as the index crossed into the green territory.      Here are some highlights...

KRSL, we highlighted this one late Friday and suggested a possible gap up today.   Well we got a gap up and the stock spent plenty of time above $22 today.   That's almost five point play from where we alerted.    We aren't being greedy here and sold most of the trading positions and left with a small trading position.   If this thing gets further momentum tomorrow, we'll definitely chase it but with a controlled pace.  The play as noted was to take advantage of a potential gap we thought we could already see in the $17's Friday being formed....How?...big fat crystal ball!..lol...okay more like a gut of experience.  We did give out the same trade in EFUT, FFHL for gap po'!.  Sometimes its not the length of stay but what you get of it.  If you can get 3-5 pts in 1 day of trading, you're not going to risk it the next day(s).

KBW, we were also surprised by its earning and thought it just seemed to good to be true.   This financial company IPO'ed not too long ago and currently have 4 analysts rate it as a hold with low estimate going forward.   This in our opinion will sure change as analysts will have to raise their estimate based on its report today.   The stock also has a very small float and financial stock in this market cap range always look attractive to us.   We are gonna be trading this one higher.

HURC SYNL CGX BW TRT,  all these recent earnings play have enjoyed some nice follow through and made new closing highs.  FSLR FCN are two more we are trading but have run out of space to discuss lately.

EDU, this familiar one which priced its secondary has broken out today on pretty good volume.    We chased some and are keeping a close eye on any further strength.  If this wasn't enough, recent Russian DJIM stocks made NCH's VIP MBT and GLDN is right there.  This is why we started a hit/hold list so your list starts to resemble ours and we all recycle when the time is right.   At this point the lineup at DJIM closely followed is a World Series lineup and there is just no reason to alert/ forum recent DJIM plays like these.  Hopefully you've listed them to trade or still have them in your books as holds. 

ONXX MFW USAP CSV SNCR, these familiar DJIM stocks all have enjoyed some nice gains and we added appropriately with some of them.

The bottom line is, if any stock did not go up in the DJIM land, then it's really considered as a laggard and we are better off just cutting them lose.   Today was not the day to play a 9ema level bounce. When the market is this rosy and most things seem to work, the trading strategy should be focused on "making most bang out of a buck" and we gotta hammer those stocks with the highest momentum.     We are looking forward to trading tomorrow.    A nice reversal of 35pts on the Nasdaq today and the close over 2500.  Now, let's just stick it!

Boring but still productive!

Market exhibited another lackluster day as two major indices went opposite of each other.    Like many traders, we are also pondering on whether we'd be seeing a big move from this market.    While we ponder our thoughts, we are also busy trading those that are exhibiting superior strength in this market.   Again, there's no shortage of stocks to trade today as it's becoming a trend lately.    In all honesty, as long as there are tradable opportunities for us to get our hands on...Is it even relevant which direction this market is going?    We never believe that anyone can be tied down by the market or a particular stock.    When it's time to move on and cut a position,  one shouldn't think twice to do so.    Liquidity in our opinion is retail trader's greatest assets.    Here are a couple of plays worth noting...

HDNG, yes it's another one of those thin floaters.  lol  Actually we have been trading all kinds of EPS movers this earning season so far.    The stock came to us when it gapped up in a volatile fashion.    The company reported a very decent number and the only concern we had is not knowing how this stock will react based on a heavy institutional presence.    Believe it or not, this one still trades like it only has one million float when in fact there are quite a few  institutions holding over 6 mill shrs combined.   However, there's still no analyst coverage on this one.   What we are looking for is more exposure and coverage.    We had CCF, EML, SYNL and now it's HDNG's turn to show us what it's made of.   One thing is for sure, its earning number doesn't lie.   Oh and it looks like IBD raised its number to 98 94 A after the close, not bad at all.

KBW, this one just didn't take long at all and we added with today's strength after consolidating just over $36.   We knew that a financial company in this market cap range is always sexy and attractive to institutional investors.   Why?   They are always potential takeover target for those big and hungry financial outfit.

USAP HURC GLDN FCN JASO ,  all these made new closing highs and we are being extremely grateful of USAP.   We feel that HURC has a pretty good chance of pulling a USAP move. It seems HURC has more staying power than its previous earning reactions.  Basically, it's acting different with sustained strength.

January was a bit slow for us in terms of earnings report but February seems to be full of good surprises.    This seems always to be the trend for us as we are getting more and more opportunities toward the latter half of the earning season.    The only thing we want to say at this moment is "keep'em coming!".  Friday has a way of throwing out a new play lately, so be ready.

So it had to happen...

We are glad that it happened this week as opposed to last week.   Of course, we are referring to the "big rally" we had today.   A big rally like today is inevitable in a correction and this is more of a relief rally than an opportunistic trading rally in our opinion.  Three ingredients to it today.  First..it was just a matter of time.  Second, world markets bounced and hardly last is the fact the big boys upstairs brought out Sec.Treas.Paulson to give a push.  Funny how the timing of such notables appearing works into the market.   The rally today definitely has been led by those big caps that were hit the hardest last few days.    Unfortunately, as much as this rally is "jawchopping" to us, it's still hard to see how it can spill to those stocks that a retail trader trades right away.      Interestingly, the DJIM stocks that stand out the past couple of days as best behaving are the ones with earning just before the meltdown......these include UEIC, HURC and HDNG and are on the top of our list. These had only a few hours to show off their goods before the corrective action started and are seemingly fresh on some minds.  You can throw NVTL into the mix which guided higher for next Q and year recently and has held up the past week to close at NCH today.   Still most of the stocks we used to follow have a pretty damaging technical picture.   We feel a lot of the stocks on our screen are being whipsawed by the index volatility rather than their own movement.   Since it's futile to predict the index movement, we feel it's still better to wait till the index volatility eases before we consider jumping back into some of the plays with good beta.    Basically, what we want to see is traders/institutions buy stocks to hold rather than to flip and buy them not b/c of the index is rallying but for individual strength of a particular stock.     Despite the big day today, the best thing we feel for this market is to go sideways and halt the slide.    Testing the lows may also be helpful as many still trade as if the market will make lower lows and market needs to prove them wrong before we can head higher.    This is unfortunately a somewhat lengthy process and it requires days and weeks to complete.  One thing to note today is despite the indexes gradual climb most of the day, many of the 4,5,6, 7% gains we saw from former DJIM plays are from the gap open.  Many small cap plays never saw higher highs after the first 10-20minutes (eg. almost all recent China plays).  So, unless you went after the big caps during the day there was not much upside to individual small caps the rest of the day.  You didn't miss much if you slept in and shouldn't think you missed something mighty as you look at those percentage gains.  Basically, the dip buyers yesterday had an opportunity to flip their shares early on to those thinking they would be missing something bigger.  Sooner or later the dip buyers had to get the day right..yesterday was finally it.

Bottom line, today is a good day and we'd like to see more stocks participate in a meaningful way.   Next few days may give us a better picture about the health of some of the individual stocks. We'd really love to see more stocks move back toward if not above 9 ema.    We will be busy updating our watch list and prioritize the plays as they start coming up.     Keep in mind, this is not the end of the correction but a step toward the right direction.     Yesterday's low will be viewed as short term support and this is how a lot of us are basing our trading strategy on the next little while until it proves otherwise.    For now,  we are gonna be going through charts of our favourite plays in the next couple of days just to see if any is worth playing.    Financials were the cream of the crop today, if this continues look to KBW as it was forgotten today.

To chase a little or not?...

Just as the stress seems to have abated to a certain degree, we are faced with trading going into a weekend.  If the markets takes comfort today in the international markets and uses it as a catalyst to gap at the open, we wonder if taking solace in the rebound action carries over to holding into a weekend.  Somehow, we think the investor/trader would rather get back in the cautious tent, put away the bargain hunting for a day and just wait for the signals from trading overseas come Monday morning to proceed.  Yes, it felt better today but we prefer to lose sight of this and just head into the weekend with a cautious stance before everyone else.   Hey, if we're wrong today, it doesn't mean we won't be kicking and screaming in if the market shows strength tomorrow. This was part of the thinking today and not getting overzealous in finding stocks off the gap that we would want to hold into the weekend.  The gaps are great on the heels of a foreign market if you bought the day(s) before, but to chase them is not so fruitful as the days have been met with late day sell offs.  Today was different,  well actually it was not as the sell off started at 2pm instead of after 3pm when the subprime mumbo hit the market.  These market opens are great if you want to dish out for 1000k shares of a HMIN type and make a quick grand+, somehow we don't think many of us are using this leverage but many smartly are as they sell off to others that chase these opens.  Today just proved how sensitive the market is to any headline as we regurgitated more of this subprime news that has been burdening the market.   Simply, it puts into perspective that even though some might be thinking we have bottomed, they will still run at first sight of any negativity.  Most are thinking what ma and pa would do and not what they want to do themselves.  Everyone is thinking what their fellow trader will do and right now it seems one doesn't have much confidence in the other to hold into a potential change in tide.  Yep, we're guilty!.  We have been bunkered 8,9 days and we won't miss something beautiful by jumping the gun, especially heading into a weekend....The commodities are showing they are game and financial are participating which has been a good sign.  Besides doing some of the fashionable day trading here and there, we continue to be selective in what we put up.... 

KBW , we mentioned as a follow up Tuesday night to the banks has moved from $34 to a touch of $37 today.

NVTL , had climbed 5% to a high until taken down with the market. We said because we expected fewer plays, we'd taking bigger positions than usual if we had something showing movement upward.  To work this strategy which includes adding on a sign of a move to a starter, we also said we expected to sell sooner..meaning a change of tide and we would bail most of our position.  We did this with ABM yesterday and today with NVTL. We are not giving up profits in this market and there is no such thing (not that we have such) and that is a stop loss.  We sold a sizeable amount on the 2pm swoon but think this will play todays highs soon again.  In some respects it easier to trade now as you are concentrating on fewer positions and can see a move begin to materialize and therefore add or subtract in a more timely manner. 

Today, we picked up FSLR again. It closed in NCH territory and is one of the few stocks that has regained all that it lost this past week.

DJIM #11 2007

You can't tell traders, investors,  'March Madness' is about to tip off.....it's been center court since February 27th and there is no Cinderella story emerging.   Actually, she went to a 'Rally ball'  last week with a tall checklist but all she had was change it seems.  She wasn't the only one.  Simply,  you can summarize last week as a week of high expectations for bargain hunting without a lot of buying.  By Friday volume had dried up, there is simply too much apprehension in the players even after 3-4 days of a reversal. Three days of a rally mustering up barely 1% of a gain in the indexes is little to get excited up.   As we've been saying this bleeding might need time to stop, right now the traders are looking under the band aid for reassurance the cut has healed.  Simply they are re-bandaging all over again just to be sure it doesn't bleed again with an unexpected news blurb.  Somehow the trust has to come back,  maybe we will just consolidate till earning season blooms again.   Hey, it's only a few weeks away till April kicks in, yet we are still finishing of the first Quarter of  '07 with micro/small caps reporting that are giving some play (JSDA #99 IBD).   If there is anything to look forward to, it is a fresh Q of potential plays to feed on.  Considering this is what DJIM is centered around...we've got more hope and can live through this corrective activity more than others playing a different niche.  Oh yeah and one thing is if you don't follow our, "No holding into earnings" stance..maybe you should at least follow it now until this correction subsides. The guillotine is sharper than usual in this sort of market as seen by the PSPT,GMKT beheadings last week....... Be cool, be selective is the daily memo here.  The momo trader needs something, even if they are in rehab at the moment.  One play that seems to be gaining traction again is the Solar play, actually this slowly should become a longer term play as this area is not going to go away.  Sooner than later owning one of these and putting it away under a pillow might be the best strategy.   We are playing both again and have written about them in detail as to their differences.  TSL closed much better than FSLR on Friday but FSLR still had some higher price buying AH's.  Right now, it's a game of jumping tracks as one or the other is providing opp's for a nice gain and we are doing the same a lot of the time.

SNCR, finished well Friday and is one of the few we had selected earlier last week. A timely move just after mentioned in the forum of setting up nicely showed promise at the close.

Early in the week on the Journal we pointed out HDNG KBW UEIC HURC as ones we are looking at first at that moment for a trade. This still holds into next week as one or two moved nicely ( KBW 34-38 ) and most are holding up well or setting up for a move up in a good market follow through day.  With oil stabilizing over $60 recently, BTJ is definitely one that looked best late last week and should be closely followed or traded.  SYNL had a nice week and CYNO is the IBD in America profile this weekend.   As far as JSDA, we'll see..we're not very patriotic it seems..lol.  Comparisons to HANS is like comparing Footballs across the border...the NFL to the CFL..not even on the actual product or earning, but the ability for JSDA to ever trade anything close to how HANS did.  These are the stocks we will continue to closely follow and possibly trade on Monday.  Of course... a wake up call from overseas mkts will play a role on which side of the bed we wake up on tomorrow.

OEH, our lodging lux play before the meltdown made NCH Friday as merger, speculation activity is foaming again in the sec.

Tanned....

and not the crispy burned type......Damn....it was hot in here!.  It doesn't take more than a 60 watt bulb to tan these Toronto boyz but nothing gets them hotter than a few of their Solar plays movin' and grovin'.   Rumor has it the market took the day off as many had expected following yesterdays blow out afternoon.   Well,  we didn't notice as this was one those 'oblivious' to the market indices days as our closely followed had a helluva day.  DJIM's gig is to get you following what we trade,  the tedious research can wait till we throw out a new stock to consider ...we'll find what you can trade over and over again and as noted last night some you can store away as well.    Recently, we said it might be wise to put some shares of solar plays away in a shoe box and not worry about trading them in and out as this story is not leaving us for a while....Today..was a perfect example of the potential in these names.  Solar stuff is nothing new as we've traded the WFR SPWR'sin 06, but we like the FSLR, ASTI, TSL to concentrate on in 07'!.   For the average investor or trader to be,  there is no extra plays you need.   We're full time and it's plenty for us.   Until a secondary play catches the same fever as our current plays..we won't go there!.  We welcome the next FSLR...when it comes!...

ASTI...wow are members are the greedy bunch...lol.  We 're not going to push it to $10, we were just below $8 yesterday.  We said when to expect 'us' to come in the last few days.  The script was written and we kept in touch all the way through.  Still...more than one opportunity existed today!.  We've talked about the day if ASTI catches the solar fever and gets bunched in with our other names.  We wanted that!.   If you begin to think like us, the early action in TSL and FSLR should have made you think it might spill to ASTI or at least hope for such and therefore been watching closely.   If you consider our mentions of a potential powerful  'flag' move that ASTI was creating yesterday.  Whats a flag?.  In laymen terms, it's a pennant of sorts in some circles....one look at the chart and the tight range (spread hi-low) yesterday was a move in the making and today there was a catalyst to use to solar it up...the TSL and FSLR to set the bugger off.    So there was two trades in ASTI today.  One was the piggyback ride of the solars to the first leg to the $8.70-80's and the second which we spoke of the last few days.    We had numerous emails, "is the love" and we responded on the forum that you will feel and see it.  The volume was a measly 700k at this point.  The love did come and ASTI added 2 million more shares to the volume end of day and a high of $9.70 was hit on the move we were looking for.   Maybe after 17% on the day gain, we should not concern ourselves about the close.  Sure, we would have liked the highs to be taken out end of day, but 17% is plenty and enough to spread the ASTI name around for a little while....30 cents off the top is nada!.  Maybe we should also accept this is not a Baskin Robbins stock, as in flavor of the day, small float momo stock to run EFUT, FFHL style and accept this is a longer term investment like Norsk (NHY) thinks it is by picking up all those shares.

FSLR, what can we say? ...our fave ain't going to the doghouse after a NCH.  TSL, a top 3 solar here..still has some catching up to do but definitely played its part today.   When we started DJIM, we talked about catching points and watching them add up....parts of 3 points on these two and the ASTI play and you should have a nice glow about you tonight!.

OEH, this has turned quietly into a pride and joy type here.  It is these stock picks that we really like to hit on the head.  Also VTRU,  a earnings and takeover play for DJIM this Q was taken out today for $48 or so.   Well, we already saw higher than todays trade in VTRU after we started covering it,  so today just nailed the trade idea for DJIM.    OEH was here first as a trade that busted out in the 40's after an alert and later it turned into a takeover play.  See Alerts in preview section.   This was confirmed a few weeks ago by Briefingcom and today it hit the press big time.  We got a little lucky buying it again yesterday........well, maybe.......when you look for strength, you sometimes get rewarded and we did today.    We buy NCH's and OEH was flying yesterday as noted in the morning forum before the market even had a chance to suck up the Bernanke.   Looks we don't need to stay at a HMIN at $16 bucks a night now!..lol.  We've kept some and traded this 6% move today and think our OEH can fetch some more room service.  Our mini bar needs re-stocking after todays DJIM stock ride.

KBW, the financials were running hard yesterday afternoon after the FED talk and if you didn't want to dish out about $200 bucks for some GS, we gave the forum an alternative DJIM play at $35.  GS exhausted today, KBW ...which was available for under $35 yesterday... closed at the days high at $37.08.  No easier play for a few shares out there.   We had a laggard as in one not many still associate with a financial play and it proved to be a good bet for a few points.

Where do we stop?;)

BTJ, our oil play..up 2 bucks-6% to a NCH.

CYNO hit 27.66 and still made a NCH,  NVTL almost to mid 15's and looks to solidify the $15's,  HDNG another NCH.  Some others had little spikes like SIMO and GLDN before giving it up, but they've had a few real nice days to follow up on.   Only real loss was a measly $1.20 in HURC. The few that were red, closed less than 1% off.   You can't argue with what our closely followed did today in a boring market day.   Last night, we said you might want to take some profits as this market digests yesterdays afternoon roll.   If you didn't today with this golden opportunity while the market lagged DJIM stocks....consider some tomorrow if profit taking Friday comes.   Still,  this weekend should provide some merger activity that has been shelved before the FED action yesterday.

We dabbled in some CRZ and to a lesser degree OYOG.  CRZ, asset management co' is one we watched before and it reported last night, Crystal River Captial reports Q4 EPS of $0.57 vs $0.07 yr ago; revs rise 69% to $59.1 mln . We like the way it traded and will look at a break over $28 to add.  OYOG is coming to high today and is involved in the oil and gas biz.  It's float is all of 4mln shares and when it comes at a price of $60-70 bucks, you can expect some big spreads.  We'll see if it continues to new highs before adding to a very small piece we hold now.