Ahead of the open, (20-01)

Market ticked higher for a 3^rdconsecutive day taking SP (+25pts wk) prices right into our first target of SP1315. While most indicators relating to risk on flash the go ahead sign, investors just seem to become more leery of the rally as it grows.  And, it has been growing with the SOX (up 7% wk.) taking over leadership from financials/housing.

Back to the ~1315 “R”, as happens regularly at a crucial resistance or support level, news seems to miraculously jump out these levels to solve the issue.  It doesn’t necessarily have to happen this overnight, but it could happen next week around the FED meet up.(Jan 25).  Market players are likely turning focus into this date.  In the meantime, the market may meander, dip a little or overshoot the resistance some.(10-15 SP handles in either direction). In between this weekend and Fed is the China New Year. Speculation has been for another RRR cut, which again may not occur due to some other actions taken already this week.  A few weeks ago RRR speculation didn’t materialize and we had a drop. A buy the dip oppy’ would arise, if this occurs.

As far as earnings, even from tonight’s tech giants,(GOOG,IBM, INTC), not expecting any individual tech linked names to drive the market.  Equities like UNP  are a better gauge now (trans. / industrial) for the market. This is something noted to watch into the trading week as industrials will test the eco' data.

Ahead of the open, (29-02)

Only today was the DJIA able to close over the ‘irrelevant’ (in this view) mark of the supposed ‘psychological’ 13k+ after numerous crosses back and forth.  Luckily, it hasn’t been noted here for the past 8 sessions that saw intraday highs above this mark each and every day.  Here, it’s not even ‘psychological’ level, just an excuse for market to chat about something that hasn’t occurred in years.  Here, more importantly SP did have a magnet at SP1370 noted as early as Feb 10 and soon after when SP dipped to ~30 handles lower than today’s close.  “Still, although the tape is seemingly going sideways, it’s really gliding and can move into SP1370 this month after hitting our 1350’s target on a breakout from 1327”.(feb.10). In the past two weeks, DJIA has gone literally nowhere (maybe 100-150pts), while SP has climbed 30-35 handles and even more since the ‘technical’ breakout consequences/importance at SP1327. Interestingly, despite this late February outperformance fact, it’s been the ‘winner’ sectors of ’12 that have corrected the most without hampering the SPX advance at all. This was pointed out in part the other day….”The fact SP hangs on while all the beta rally sectors succumb to some lessening of exposure is a positive so far.” Feb 23.

Still, let’s not fool ourselves; the recent grind has affected individual stocks as the hesitation in the overall market has taken its toll on single stocks as well.  Despite the pause - climb – pause -climb climb since low 1300’s to 1370’s, there has been no panic lately to chase winners, momentum stocks.  Today, we had PCLN, GOOG, AAPL all go at once.  Is this the necessary sign for more gains as traders begin to chase the leaders, momo’s, earnings or was the overall lag in RUT, transports the true tell today.  All in, it’s probably best to wait for the events ahead this week to dictate market direction.

On the eve of the second ‘LTRO’ tender day and the #1 (LTRO #1) reason behind the rally, the question regurgitated here is what happens when the ECB liquidity ‘music stops’ in the weeks ahead.  If the number is inline tomorrow, it may just be anti-climatic (best result) for the time being.  What will the investor do and think later?, if there is only ‘accommodative’ short term durations injections given out going forward.  How much and how long will the confidence flush instilled last before we do it “crisis’ it all over again in the Eurogroup?.

Ahead of the open, (17-04)

A weird tape, yet support on the SP 1370 not broken yet.  A sideways session for the broader market at the end, but an underlying market consisting of growth and best performers succumbed to tandem profit taking.  Considering this is as bad as it got with Spanish yields widening over 6% is a relief of sorts.

The heavy hitters like AAPL, PCLN, MA, GOOG  the most visible casualties, but the underperformance in growth ‘retail’ stocks like FOSL, RL, PVH VFC , not living up to the overall retail sector performance following better than expected retail # was a head scratcher.  Still, despite better retail # in China last week and now here this sector can’t get going.

A lot is being made of AAPL’s slide threatening to take the market with it, but at this point with its action coinciding with other growth stocks is likely more of a rotation of sorts for the time being.  Not a safety relocation/ rotation into TSY or GOLD, but one where the cash is being spread out in equities.  Example, see the PC’s/Semi’s in the black today as ‘tech’ gets slammed.

The ‘weird’ action is likely not a very long term phenomenon.