YourPersonalTrader- Toronto Canada/ London UK

DJIMSTOCKS- since 2006 - Toronto, Canada/ London UK

· Daily stock market color and insight before every U.S market-open, 'INTO THE TRADING DAY', 5X a week before 8:30 am/est. Follow our extensive trading desk experience and lead in recognizing daily event upside/ downside risks ahead of each trading day.

· DJIM bridges the gap between the retail-investor / trader and the institutional players by filtering out the noise, abundance of information (good or bad) generated through the media/ Internet.

· Our daily Journals encompass our trading methodology allowing you to interconnect with us by ‘Shadowing’ our trading platform watchlist. A 'Shadow'list of 50-75 stocks is tailored and fragmented (outperforming SECTORS, MID-SMALL CAPS, EARNINGS/ GROWTH (EPS) linked stocks, IBD 50, MOMENTUM STOCKS) to gauge single stock action and the broad underlying market for SP 500 direction to go long or short. New plays (stock/sector) are added, especially during earnings season through Journal updates.

· A simple to follow package allowing any investor class to save time and enhance returns!.


Entries in Shippers back (4)


A welcomed pullback...

We are glad that the indices pulled back 'some'.   It definitely takes some heat away off the overextended rally we've wanted to avoid.    Oracle's earning tonight isn't too inspiring and coupled with the always potential negative economic reports, we may see some further pullback.  This is all good news in the grand scheme of things.   One thing we may simply see Thursday is a disconnect between the DJIA and NASD off ORCL, if ECO data doesn't hurt the whole market.      The reason we keep saying this 'good' is that the further away we are from 12700 Dow and 1380 SPX, the less pressure it is to buy on the dip.     Market is actually in an interesting juncture here because we think it would take a lot of negative headlines to push this market below last week's low, which is still 700 points away for the Dow and 65 points away for the SPX.     That is a lot of ground to cover which means the chance of it happening within the next little while is slim unless something dramatic happens.  Oracle is not dramatic.

The thesis of DJIM here, is to buy on weakness while trimming some off on strength.    Unfortunately, the trouble we are having lately when it comes to work this thesis out is the fact MOST if not all of our favourite plays just refuse to come down this week.    If you look at today, and from the watchlist which we posted over the weekend, over three quarter of the plays still ended up green!   Takeaway the banks, which is something you can't play every day and the list is looking even better.   This is actually in fact scary because you can't imagine what can possibly happen to these plays if we are up triple digits.

What can we do?   Basically, not having any positions in your account while watching some of these plays like X, CLF, EOG, BZP, RIMM, AAPL... rocketing away in a down day is simply, unsettling.    So, at any time, we'd at least carry 100 or 200 shares of each just in case we have a type of day like today.     Honestly, without looking at the final box score, we really couldn't tell if we had a bad day simply by looking at our primary watchlist.

To review some action here...

Oil, today's surge in crude price not only broke the short term down trend, but it feels it has legs to challenge its recent high.    This is shown in pretty much all of our oil plays here.     We like EOG, BZP and HES the most as they are pure play here.    BZP also has a fresh breakout and notched a new closing high, the technical looks very good on that one.    RIG is another one we are now watching in addition to the above ones.

Steel,  this is the group which we are currently in a love/hate relationship.   We love it because it is the absolutely best performing group out there.    We hate it because we simply don't own enough of their shares and there has been literally no dip opportunity to add in the past few days.     This is really a pity because the higher it goes without any pullback, the more likelihood we wouldn't buy on its first dip.    In the group, we like X, CLF and STLD the best but just about every other name is also kicking in the sector.  This is the one sec you've noticed we've stuck with as the commoditity crunch came last week and our most mentioned X is becoming a darling with CNBC talking heads and last night it was Cramer pet rock.  Hopefully that doesnt ruin the group.

Agri/Chem,  as early as this Monday, we even had the idea of shorting this group as the technical picture just looked downright awful for the group.   However, one pre-announcement from MON changed all that.    The sentiment is again that this whole group will crush the number and guide higher.    We'd be very aggressive in buying any dips in this group including MON MOS CF and POT.    However, as most of you have noticed, there really isn't any dips offered in this group in the past couple of days so in a way we are kind of hoping market pulls back some again tomorrow.

Shippers, this is another area which we are taking some interest lately as the prior downtrend seemed to be over.    We aren't being aggressive in buying up the strengh last couple of days but we are rather taking opportunities to add when they get sold off along side the market.    We like DRYS the most but we also have EXM TBSI on the watchlist.  GNK another we may consider that's been here before if the sector runs and you want to purge.

Solars, this group has take on some very nice gains the last few days and we couldn't help but wonder how much further it can continue up.   The only play in the group that really interests us is FSLR so when it stops going up, we generally just wait and see what happens next with the group.

Techs,  not all technology stocks are the same and it pays to follow what is going on in the market right now.    We are staying away from the internet group in general except for an occasional intraday flip from the likes of BIDU and GOOG.    We'd be playing some RIMM/AAPL but feel the recent surge in price has been too much too fast.    RIMM's eps is only four trading days away so it's best to take it lightly at this point.

Other than the plays above, we also have ISRG, V... FDG JRCC (Coal plays), AEM (gold) that are performing well in this market.     In addition, it's getting closer that we can also give GS MS type a try on any further pullback.    Bottom line, we have some economic reports tomorrow that could give this market some cause to move and if some of our favourite plays pullback (keep our fingers crossed), we'd be there to lineup the bids.   Keep in mind, nothing is for certain in this market so we'd keep our sizes relatively small and spread out the purchase just to be conservative.   Lots of names in bold here, but that's simply because things are working off the list.


Can't fight the trend...

What started as a shaky day for bulls ended up a shaky day for bears.    You can literally visit many a bear oriented trading blogs and the consensus is that they are nervous as hell.     The initial claim report, though we shouldn't put a huge emphasis on it, was still bad enough to cause some early jitters in the market.     Today's action is a very good example of how to judge where the market trend is going and how to use your DJIM watchlist as a guide.  This is why we were issuing alerts very early as we were seeing things develop off our list, not the indices, and gave ideas as how to proceed.   Market basically shook off early weakness and steadily gained ground and held firm to the end.      In our opinion, it's not the fact that this market wants to ignore any bad economic report,  it's the fact that we got a bigger and more important job report tomorrow to give us a better picture of the employment picture.    Mid day all of the plays on the DJIM watchlist were 'greeners', the breadth was so positive that we'd actually question whether we were up only 20 points end of day.   Unless the number Friday is absolutely horrible and surprising any selling on day 3 after a big rally would only be corrective as sellers have not taken control as before.    Indecision to sell is a smell good thing as the usual selling after big rallies has not occurred.   That is the difference now proceeding the jobs report from what we saw in the March 3%+ rallies.

Plays wise, we have some groups continuing their recent strength while others just started to pick up some momentum.     Everything from Agri/chem, Steels, high beta Technology to Shippers, Solars and even oil stuff all showed various strength and our favorites in each led the way.   Keep in mind, we have alot of plays on our watchlist, well 30+ not including the ETF's for directional purposes is not that much, so seeing them all having a good day while the index is barely up is just simply very encouraging.    

We were quite busy in the morning and the afternoon adding various positions given their respective strength.  Sometimes selling parts as well as a few alerts like DRYS rocked nicely soon afterwards and taking profits cannot be ignored. 

The bottom line, we have a job report tomorrow which may be deemed as a very important barometer of our economy.   In either case of the outcome of the report, we'd likely be adding more stuff to our positions.     If the report is inline or good, then it's a no brainer and we'd be very aggressive in the early going.     If the report is not as good as expected, we'd add slowly into the potential weakness.   In our opinion, earning period is officially kicked off in DJIM land and given the technical trend we are in, the momentum is definitely to the upside at this point.  


Slow things down a bit....

Basically, as much as we'd like to see 200+ pt gain every day, the best course of action for this market at the moment is to chill.     Yes, we have broken that all important resistance level last Friday and now comes the task of defending that level as support.    Because we are still in the midst of an earning period, the market will tend to be volatile because of the uncertain outcome of earning reports.    We'd allow this market to go 100 points either way, as long as there is strength in selected plays.    We cannot control nor predict whether a market will go up or down 100 points tomorrow, but we can definitely take advantage of opportunities that are presented to us.    This is assuming that we are on top of our game and know exactly what to look for.

Today's slide is mainly from the technology area and we aren't particularity concerned about that.    Yes, some of the tech names have gone up tremendously ahead of their earnings and it's only natural to see some pullback.    Frankly, if AAPL's earning suck tomorrow, nobody wants to pay $150+ for it.  It's as simple as that!.  On the other hand, the commodity market is still alive and kicking.   What else is new eh?    Honestly, this is getting to a point where we don't even care about any sector other than the commodity ones we've been stalking.     It's not that the commodity plays go up the way like in the dotcom days.   It's the fact of how scarily steady they go up with respect to the overall market.    It doesn't seem matter whether we have a down market or an up market, there's always one area of the commodity market that's getting hot money.    In today's case, we have oil and agri. and shippers and a selected steel MTL, we long ago said might follow in the footsteps of our big play (X) when it dipped into $110's.   To us, that's more than half of the plays on our watchlist, your DJIM shadowlist.    To some, this may get frustrating as the inevitable question arises "why don't some of these names pullback for once?"     Well, this is the perfect illustration of hot money flows.    Is this going to be a bubble waiting to be burst?    Frankly, we don't know and we don't care at this point.  They blew it up once recently and we came back and said this is not 'dead' and soon after it all started up again!.   Only thing we have to say at this point is that, if you don't trade the commodity this year, you will be greatly under performing those who do.

Now some sector digestion in no particular order...

Oil, it sure is getting hotter out there and we are not even through April yet.   What ever happened to spring?   We literally jumped from freezing temperature to mid 20s C in a matter of a week.    This can also illustrate the market with oil right now.    It just feels like there's no stoppage, now that the summer is coming, which is seasonally strong for oil price.    As far as plays wise, we are sticking with some of our popular ones like HES, EOG, RIG, XCO, ATLS and BZP.   

Coal, with earning reports out of the way from BTU ACI and FDG.  We only have a couple of interesting ones left to report.    We are looking to establish some good positions next few days hopefully on dips.    The story with this sector is again demand + pricing power.   The current reports may not justify the future potential of this sector.

Shippers,  just about every shipper had a good day today and this is more of a recent sector move than anything.   We started getting very bullish on this sector at the beginning of April and it's been paying off nicely so far.   This is a secondary play for the commodity market, but it's a very important sector.    Basically, you have only so many vessels and you can only built so many of them a year.   The rising demand of commodity will give those shippers good bargaining power down the road.    Most of these shippers are already trading at a very low P/E so now it's the matter of change in perception as far as trading goes.    DRYS, EXM and TBSI are of course our three top dogs we like to trade and we'd stick to them for the next while.   We rode them last summer after alerting the sector and we are once again since the start of April.  If you're visiting DJIM, you can go to our Alerts-page and /or search our stocks through our search of Journal entries, or just keep scrolling down these pages and see the stocks we've been playing highlighted in bold.

Agri.,  about a year go, not many people have even heard of POT.   These days, you can't log into a trading system without at least checking to see how much POT is going for on the street.   How ironic, eh?    The success with POT has everything to do with how huge the IPO of IPI was today.    IPI is a pure potassium play that markets its product to America.   Given the scarcity of this resource and the increasing demand of this ingredient in food planting, IPI will likely get some more momentum down the road.   POT is reporting on 24th and we think both the report and guidance will be good.    It's hard to say how these stocks will react initially, but we'd be buying/ recycling on any weakness.

Bottom line, it pays to go after the obvious and easy plays.    In a bull market, every play will look extended and that's the way it's going to be.   This is the case with commodity plays right now.    We have to constantly remind ourselves that this is where the hot money is and this is where we want to trade.



Anyway, you look at it....The trading day was solid and it doesn't include a disclaimer as in little volume!.  We've been alluding to the fact volume is and will deteriorate heading into the summer and so we can't put much emphasis into the volume day to day now.    In other words, a +130, +42, +15 is a nice rally, nothing less!.   Last week as the indices declined, we headlined, "Not worried" and heading into this weeks trading..."In other words, we're not really worried about the markets performance/ declines last week, we think this is all the normal course after a significant breakout".    Today's performance did nothing to squelch that belief with the IWM/RUT back at resistance with the potential to create a significant breakout.  The SPX back at the psychological mark of 1400+ is where we want to be while the NDX leads the market.  At these closing levels on the IWM NDX is where you want to see volume kick up to create a talked about breakout.     If we don't get the volume breakout the Bears will do their best to diminish the move.   Considering the way we've been grinding up, we just may continue to do so even on a breakout.  lol.  A slow burial for the Bears is just fine.  Maybe a few put a gun to their heads already as FDX, MBIA stories rebounded.

Nothing extraordinary to add today as all the recent alerted new plays continued to make new highs.  We are speaking of the SOHU ANR, SNHY, MVL, and even the BZP which we nudged a few times last week.    In the meantime if this isn't enough points pocketed, we have other tradeable opportunities stepping up as in RIMM and ENER.    As we said yesterday RIMM is long term again in our view.    It wasn't just the intro of the Bold device, it's the RIMM plan at analysts day that sparked a lot of interest.      If you were around AH's, you may have caught FLR with us for what is already a nice trade.   Management raised guidance to 6.25-6.55 from 5.10-5.50 on strength from all segments.  You don't have be a genius to understand this headline.     One sector though was priming up (Shipping plays) as shipping rate noise and as to why they are this high hit a few publications like FT.    Wow, what a shocker, we've only been writing about this scenario since DRYS was in the high 50's in March-April. 

Oh yeah, doesn't it feel like the sleeping giants are about to roar once again! .  Maybe its just withdrawal we are feeling from the Chemicals-Ag, steels, but with $CRX keeping its head up...who knows, we could be playing hard again very soon.

The premise behind DJIM has always been based on earnings and even in what is the worst of eco times supposedly, we are full of plays riding this methodology.