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Entries in USD funding stress (2)


Into the trading week, (Nov14-)

Heading into last week’s trading, cited.. “A fresh and likely biggest wary to look at is Italian bonds/yields. ECB is intervening holding it below critical 6.5%, if it gets above it may trigger margin increase changes and the consequences (financial stresses) are inevitable and are unknown.”. Incredibly, it seems the entire the ‘Italian’ story unfolded soon after and played out in the next 5 days from beginning to end, you may say. First, yield pushing above 6.5%, soon quickly to ~7.5% on margin increases and by end week back down below 6.5% with markets indices following in sync, while hitting the SP resistance and support levels laid out on the spot.

What’s really amazing is how fast the Italians moved to calm the financial markets from abyss vs, ie. Greece, which was an unexpected event (passing reforms through house and creating a unity gov’t in just a few days vs. going to elections and dragging everything with it), allowing the market to finish incrementally higher on the week. Yes, they may go to elections still, but it’s not an immediate factor now. Now the question is how Italy is assisted with its funding down the road if yields stay high, IMF/EFSF together is likely not enough. ECB powers in?

What the week did was demonstrate the market is still .. “taking this in stride”, as far as the European crisis. Despite the mid-week bloodbath day, markets didn’t even hit the prior week’s low achieved off Greek referendum news. Also importantly, as noted after the biggest decline day since mid-Aug,..” market seems less panicky than August b/c eventually (as always before), things will be fixed is the motto”. Ahead, any dip off any more sell offs stemming from Europe will be looked on as buying the dip opportunity again as US market showcases it’s resiliency and decoupling from European headlines.

Ahead of the trading week, still concerned with the underlying tape (see Friday’s ahead of open view). Note despite strong rally Friday, R2K and Nasdaq finished in the red for the week as higher beta (momentum stocks) still lagged. Also, financials were very strong during October rally are not participating here. Looking for these factors to change to get over 1275 SP.


Ahead of the open (2-12)

Market muddled along throughout the day and that’s a positive in this view, as ‘digestion’ is a necessity of huge rally day. Today, Bears ranting is in full gear about reality setting in, market exaggerated the concerted intervention and what goes up violently can turn just as violently down after realization this is only Central Bank band –aid.

No disputing it’s a band-aid. But, view here is the move justified.  Macro and technically. If you put enough band- aids on as has been happening this week with more likely to come, it will eventually stop the bleeding.

Also, considering market broke down from mid 1200’s on the SP for 6-7 days from USD funding stress, why shouldn’t it go back to those levels when the band-aid is a specific ‘fix’ liquidity injection for that problem!

Technically, going to mid 1200’s is not a surprise after blowing through breakout levels…(Although, most are looking at low 1200’s,(50ma) as the breakout level to a broader recovery to mid 1200’s for SP, it’s been noted here recently 1215’ish - DJIM benchmark 20ma(1225) would be a hurdle on a bounce.). The next “R” is at 1265 on the SPX ahead of a NFP#, which is probably the most anticipated one in months with 180-200K eyed now. It’s unlikely anything out of Europe on Friday can upstage this report, so market direction will stem off what is happening in U.S for a change.

If, NFP# hits close to the 200k whispers or above, the market better mood/ sentiment continues and it may ignite the afterburners, which would coincide with the Europe peripheral bond tear today. In all, it may be short lived though because it’s not just Wednesday >4% rally that needs digestion, it’s the week gains Monday that need to be ‘consolidated’. So, either way the NFP goes, market probably needs some rest soon before all focus turns to EU/ ECB summits next week.. again