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Entries in MBT (7)



There's really no need to talk about the overall market today.   Dow notched a new high and Naz followed with an impressive gain.    We are not going to delve into why and how of the overall market behaviour.    As a trader, you cannot battle against the overall market trend.   Rather, you can use the market sentiment to gauge the behaviour of individual stocks.    We couldn't help but noticing that across the DJIM land,  most if not all of the stocks on our watch list ended up in the green.   This is actually not rare considering how the market performed today.   What we find most encouraging is to see the resiliency of some of our stocks,they performed well on a good day like today but also just as well last few days when market wasn't as "hongy dorry"!     We have quite a few stocks making new 52 week highs and some making fresh break outs.    This is definitely a sign of a good market here, but we know this can change on a dime.  Here are some stocks that we thought are worth noting...

VIP MBT, incredible strength for the comrades the past 3 days..7 to 9 points on each.  The short term RSI is almost out of this world and we think this is unsustainable for a 4th day.  We sold most and will likely finish doing so early on tomorrow. These two charts are a great study on a breakout on earnings, the pull-back and then the higher high breakout we just witnessed.

AMK, volume has been a little slow last couple of days so the momentum is not as strong as we would liked.   The price action however, is pointing to the right direction and we are still sticking with our thesis for a pre earning runup.

CCF, we really like this one's steadiness and basically are not overplaying it.   

USAP, is holding steady after earning and is using the strength of the steels in holding these levels.

CCOI, the leading secs today were the internet related issues, couple this with a Lehman upgrade on another Clec and Merriman's bullish comments on the CLECS and CCOI  put the shelf offering from last night to the side.  See the chart for the possible break and/or resistance point.  As per our update/alert, we added and will take the chance this breaks out with some pop soon.

EBS, not a bad day for the other biotech in DJIM land introduced this weekend.  Volume speaks volumes today, you could say. Oh yeah and VNDA, just keeps inching higher..

HMIN, as if we are tired of seeing this play popping up on this journal. lol    This one again broke out today and closed at a triple high(intraday high, 52 week high and all time high).   This combination coupled with a good market and a strong base it's had usually indicates a very bullish trend.   But of course, we have been tricked by this one before so we will keep a close on it tomorrow for any sign of weakness.  One thing to watch out for is the China stocks doing offerings, it seems the price starts to bounce to old highs and then the news hits. Sneaky.


Year of the Pig!

We are definitely enjoying this first trading day of the Pig year.    Of course, the word Pig in Chinese is usually associated with prosperity as opposed to our association of greed.    But today, we are just enjoying being a pig, in either association. lol      Action is pretty broad across the DJIM land and many stocks gained momentum as the index crossed into the green territory.      Here are some highlights...

KRSL, we highlighted this one late Friday and suggested a possible gap up today.   Well we got a gap up and the stock spent plenty of time above $22 today.   That's almost five point play from where we alerted.    We aren't being greedy here and sold most of the trading positions and left with a small trading position.   If this thing gets further momentum tomorrow, we'll definitely chase it but with a controlled pace.  The play as noted was to take advantage of a potential gap we thought we could already see in the $17's Friday being formed....How?...big fat crystal ball! more like a gut of experience.  We did give out the same trade in EFUT, FFHL for gap po'!.  Sometimes its not the length of stay but what you get of it.  If you can get 3-5 pts in 1 day of trading, you're not going to risk it the next day(s).

KBW, we were also surprised by its earning and thought it just seemed to good to be true.   This financial company IPO'ed not too long ago and currently have 4 analysts rate it as a hold with low estimate going forward.   This in our opinion will sure change as analysts will have to raise their estimate based on its report today.   The stock also has a very small float and financial stock in this market cap range always look attractive to us.   We are gonna be trading this one higher.

HURC SYNL CGX BW TRT,  all these recent earnings play have enjoyed some nice follow through and made new closing highs.  FSLR FCN are two more we are trading but have run out of space to discuss lately.

EDU, this familiar one which priced its secondary has broken out today on pretty good volume.    We chased some and are keeping a close eye on any further strength.  If this wasn't enough, recent Russian DJIM stocks made NCH's VIP MBT and GLDN is right there.  This is why we started a hit/hold list so your list starts to resemble ours and we all recycle when the time is right.   At this point the lineup at DJIM closely followed is a World Series lineup and there is just no reason to alert/ forum recent DJIM plays like these.  Hopefully you've listed them to trade or still have them in your books as holds. 

ONXX MFW USAP CSV SNCR, these familiar DJIM stocks all have enjoyed some nice gains and we added appropriately with some of them.

The bottom line is, if any stock did not go up in the DJIM land, then it's really considered as a laggard and we are better off just cutting them lose.   Today was not the day to play a 9ema level bounce. When the market is this rosy and most things seem to work, the trading strategy should be focused on "making most bang out of a buck" and we gotta hammer those stocks with the highest momentum.     We are looking forward to trading tomorrow.    A nice reversal of 35pts on the Nasdaq today and the close over 2500.  Now, let's just stick it!


all is well....

That's what most people wanted to feel today probably.   The truth is, we are still working off the ugly damage from couple of weeks ago.    In this case, churning is good and more up days and less down days within a contained range make a good setup for future rally down the road.   Meanwhile, when the index is churning away, we ought to be catching some opportunities and keeping an alerted stance at the same time.    Today.. definitely feels like one of those relaxed days and we welcome that change of pace.   Some stocks we are following...

DXPE,  yes it made it back onto the IBD100 list and this one has had a history of being on and off the infamous list.    Is this a big deal anymore?   We think it's not nearly as big of a deal as it once was couple of years ago.   In fact, the IBD play has toned down so much over the time that we find alot of better plays that aren't IBD associated these days.    The float is one thing that keeps DXPE interesting and as long as there's interest in this one, we are willing to stay in and trade it on the long side, aggressively.

HDNG, why this one still isn't on the IBD100 list while some other "crap" got on is still a mystery to us.    Well, IBD or not, the action still looks very healthy and it notched another high today.

FSLR TSL ASTI, a firm had negative comments on the sector premarket and therefore these names under performed the market.  ASTI has its own issues to get over, the private placement price.  FSLR got a lift from the IBD article and it feels like a less volatile bet at this moment.    We are keeping our eyes closely on these and will re-enter when they gain some momentum to the upside again.

CYNO/ JSDA, both stocks gapped at the open off the positive market and held the gap till the close. We sold off some of the CYNO move, the JSDA we weren't holding.  We'll keep an eye on both for another try.

VIP/ ROS,  it seems that some stocks just won't go away and these pair notched a new closing high today off pretty good volumes.    Yes these are foreign stocks that can be volatile at times.    However, when the momentum clearly shows one direction, this type of move can be very rewarding as well.  If you didn't get in or trade them today, we'd pay attention to the charts as these Russian telcos made not the prettiest of candles giving up quite a bit off the top.  This included MBT, to a lesser degree GLDN.  Be patient for indication this move is real now.

Overall, we feel that market is doing a pretty good job of working out of its corrective phase.   At this point, nobody can say for sure how long this corrective phase will last.    One thing is for sure though is that there's still tons of cash on the sideline and ppl won't hesitate twice to jump into a hot sector, story stock, or a general market rally.    We'll just have to make sure that we get in at the right time to get our money's worth.


DJIM #42  2007

Here we are DJIM clan, the week we've been all anticipating as the tech giants start reporting...INTC, YHOO, EBAY, IBM, GOOG to give this market its course.  Somebody(s) wanted to start early Friday by showing that Thursday's beating was nothing but a mirage as noted in the last lines of the morning Journal.."Tech stuff this am..ORCL M & A news,   AAPL tgt raised by MS,     IBM estimates raised by JPM before next weeks if yesterday's tech wreck didn't happen;)'.     This was was followed with Oppe' giving GOOG a $700 tag.     Aren't these guys off Fridays?.      Guess with a Blackberry you could shoot off a price tgt increase/ upgrade from anywhere these days.      Coincidence of all these coming out on what is usually a quiet Friday scene,  plus M & A activity tossed in?.       Doubt it, these firms are seemingly gonna do whatever they can to grease this market higher it seems,   maybe we're being set up for a final push into the end of '07..a push that could leave us all hiding in the bush for a while when this all ends.  lol.      Anyways...all we could do is take it one day at a time here and therefore we are all playing it smart....right?.     Without panicking on Thursday, we noted in the last half hour to let this market drain, "the market will still be there tomorrow and the noise will settle'.     We were asked by a few of you to give our interpretation of the steep and quick turnaround from the techs and that is what we did before the open the next day.. actually started with our AH Alert on BIDU and the BS surrounding the JPM report on it and the match it was on the box leading to the tech's fall.    Maybe the big boys wanted a fire sale just before earnings this week just to load up, maybe that's why the barrage of activity from them on these names premarket the next day.      If you weren't taking profits Thursday, well then you probably made up your paper losses by holding through the night.     Maybe you even added more as the bus got gased and you added to your positions into what turned out to be potentially a very profitable trading day.   Hell...just if you got on the BIDU bus once or twice it would have been nice.   We're not Cramer with a $500 push for BIDU late in the day, we don't care what is does today or tomorrow, all we try to do is give an early lead on a stock and maybe if you agree and see the ducks line up as they did with tech upgrades, then you will shadow us into the play.   Okay... We need to put last week behind us now as the EPS story starts to unfold,  but there are few quick stocks to note off the close last week...

CETV, looked sweet as it broke through the congestion noted at our $98 alert.     It had a nice afternoon as buying picked up and it closed at $104 mark.    You couldn't ask for a better chart on the daily and weekly leading up into earnings for this stock or any stock.   You might recall when the market was taking a beating, we discussed the potential of money flow into Chinese, Russian stocks, half of the BRIC.    On Friday, our GLDN reached another high off our last alert on it at $82 to $89's and it is taking the other Ruskies with it... VIP and MBT have reached new heights as well.      Another one followed here closely all the time because of its volatility and ability to shoot a moon shot intraday is WBD, the Russian dairy/beverage co.    It  had a beauty of a walk up Friday as you could see by the intraday chart.  This one could give it up just as quick always remember,  but the way it was ladder walked for 5 hours makes you wonder what's up.     It never trades so orderly.   Just like the Chinese stocks, we are continuing to favor this Euro flavor.

Speaking of the Asian stocks, if you look at the charts from this weekend, you'll see the potential resistance on the HANG at 29,000.   Have you seen the overnights?.    Unbelievable, these markets have no respect for any resistance, any potential top.  It just did a drive by and gave this 29,000 the finger!.  So what does mean?.  Well,   just potentially another day to trade our DJIM names.   There is a name that has crept up the last 2 days and has offered a whole lot of gain % potential.    If you didn't catch it Thursday, maybe you caught it on Friday and if it rides the train further off 2 consecutive volume days...well then we might get a 3rd day of opportunity.    Again, this HSWI falls into the speculative and does come with a warning, even though it looks to have some of the volatility subsiding and something might be cooking as its under accumulation it seems.   Icahn, making lots of headlines recently. EJ traded stupidly at first too.   Not saying its a EJ,  just how it traded in its first weeks when you had no clue which direction it would go on any given day.

EDU, a few nice points off the note on it in alerts Friday midday and going on the limb here at first glance over the report and saying this is a great report this morning!.   Still...remember let the market show you the way and if they agree with us, the bus will move and you will consider jumping on.   Why does this look good?.   Besides the headline numbers of beating by .12c  (91mln vs. a lofty 79c)55% growth YOY, 81 mln in revenues beats 72mln and is 42% growth YOY.   The kicker is a very nice 30% enrollment growth and 40%+ operating margins.      Sales growth of 42% and 30% enrollment means efficiency and power.    In our opinion, this is the barometer (enrollment)with operating/ gross margins that you judge this stock on!.   Hey, we went on the limb early with WBD recently off earnings and it payed off big quickly..lets try again.   Yes, this baby China was once $20 dollars here, she's all grown up and kicking on all cylinders.   Still...there is a CC to follow premkt.   Let the market show you the way.   It would be rude to have sell the news in this report, but who Good to have the Asian markets possibly lead this as well. 

We did a lot of selling into strength last week as we prepare to have cash readily available to barrel in on new plays arising from earnings reports. This is something we always preach here as we settle into another earnings season.   Have cash on hand!.   For some of you it might be a problem cause you've become infatuated with a big gainer such as DRYS, TBSI etc over the months.    Just remember, she can always dump you first from the lofty perch you have her sitting on.  There is a big derivative market here placing bets in the Shipping industry, you're with the Hedgies here big time and it will probably get more volatile as time passes.    At least consider lightening up some of your recent big winners into EPS season.    We've provided a look recently in the Journals as to the things to watch and be aware of when considering a headline EPS number.    We don't doubt the Shippers and stuff will be in play, but we have worked them over and over here and hopefully it is now time to discover some new blood and start from the bottom and watch them climb, just like we did with all the DJIM Shippers, China, even Russian plays.  We want the easy play and that usually starts with getting in on play before the herd comes marching in, sometimes it takes days or weeks...sometimes just a few minutes.

Cheers' mates!



..some calmness

Seems many gurus are writing off the market saying this latest liquidity plan is just for the big boyz to get out higher and fry us all.  Hell, many have predicting doom since summer or years for different crisis situations, but we just keep playing along with many of you as we have done so for 3-4-5 years.   We love conspiracy theories , but we don't trade them unless they are ours and we won't give up now thinking this market can trade up still.   Maybe , we are too simple and too simple in our methodology... We/You are not giving our neighbour a loan and they won't give us one and so the banks have the same situation.   They don't trust each other and so the liquidity plan comes to fruition.   Simple...  someone steps in and helps both sides.   We are in favor of this intervention and think this will help soothe out things eventually.   It's a start.   The last time anything close to this being done  on such a worldly scale was after 9-11.  That puts things into perspective in more than one sense.   The severity of it all now and the ability to fight back is there as we've seen before.    Day by day things will clear... if the market can't hold a13500 DJIA or NASD 2700 close in the short term, we'd start to worry more from a technical standpoint.   But...until then we are ready to jump on Santa's sleigh and go for a ride with a few of his helpers.     Well, the DJIA did hold 13500 (barely) and the NASD is still some 30 pts away, but we all know what 30 points is like and that's a half day of a run these days.    The way RIMM, AAPL BIDU performed makes it even more plausible soon and therefore an opportunity to strike these names up again will come.   We are encouraged by today's action, the lows of Wednesday were hardly touched on the indices and we worked higher into the close.  A little grit and determination was seen today and everything held together after yesterdays big intraday slide.  ' If ' we get a manipulated CPI number premarket, we could have an added ingredient for a move starting for next week.   We are getting to the biggest time of the year for manipulation as the volume will soon start to dry up.  This is the time for all the manipulators to step forward..big and small and boost year end totals on all boards.    Surely, a BIG lot(s) will be there to help out the market.  You help us out with liquidity....we'll help up you in other ways, guys!.. told you we love conspiracy theories, we just like'em on the bull side.

LRN,   K12, how cool a name is that!;).  Anything/anybody to help the kids from Kindergarten to grade 12 surf online other than us is a great concept!.  Okay, so its a little more than that as LRN offers a 'real' curriculum of educational services, lessons.    A virtual public skool alternative to supplement the kids education.  A recent educational IPO, APEI serving the military/law enforcement had a big run since it IPO'd as we noted with LRN today in the $22's.  It had nice full day trading to the $25's and we were trading/taking positions throughout the day.  A 6mln float makes it attractive to boot.

MELI, a long standing citizen here and a recent alert this week at $45 was making some people very happy last night as it traded to $58 AH's off Cramer.  It's only a recap if you are not trading it this week as it's held its ground near highs through all the volatility we've seen.  We have always liked to sell to an incoming herd from another source.

MA,  another long term play here and again highlighted a few times this week hit a NCH with a $224 close with a converted touchdown and field goal day..10pts. No yellow flags with this machine.

Solars, we highlighted this bunch into the trading day and it was really the only 'group' action going with FSLR, ESLR leading the way off the upgrades mentioned in the morning.  JASO, SOLF, YGE all held green as well and if we keep seeing this group up, STP, SPWR will join the ranks again.

MBT, VIP, after making NCH's recently they have tested 9ema and seem ready to resume if the market gives them a chance.   The telecom sector has been one of the leaders on bad days in the market and with Russia's political picture clearing up it should bode well for these ADR's soon enough.  These have always held up during the rocky days of November.    ROS a secondary play on the above when we started coverage back who knows when is a clear beneficiary as its practically a 'state owned co'.  The other two offer volume and so we'd continue playing with them.

RICK, so this is where all the bankers are striking up liquidity plans these days!..No wonder they have no $$$$.  This one just keeps on doing a slow dance up.

GXDX,  no big surprise the traders didn't show up the day after EPS.  We've outlined numerous times recently that small/ float EPS plays are not getting the love immediately as we have been used to in the past. The chasers are still not there as we saw today and since this stock had a very nice pre earnings run, its really not surprising to see profit taking come in.  Keep it up there on your potential playlist.  A pullback always balances your risk/reward out.

Oh yeah, RIGL,  wait till phase 3 comes out, it will go to $100..;).  The beauty of this action is there's crazy foolish money out there still to play feverishly and we like that.   Along with interest seen in the IPO LRN,  it gives us more hope in the coming weeks for plays as there is a willingness to put money to work.  It's sporadic now and sometimes doesn't last too long , but that could all change as spreads widen in more names when the volume starts to dry up into the New Year.



Despite what at times felt like a volatile day, it came on the expected diminishing holiday volume and therefore some intraday expected yo-yo swings occurred on the indices.  At the end, the action is firmer for the last 2 days and unless the down swings are on a bad headline with volume, it is best to stick it out with some positions and look forward to the XMAS shortened week and a possible rally of sorts.  A few things occuring the past few days are indicative of a whacked out market, this is best shown in the different reactions to GS strong earnings and MS's blow up.  But this could be good news.  Possibly the best thing is bad news from the financials may be getting priced in on some stocks and confidence is climbing that the firms are finally throwing everything out including the kitchen sink and coming clean.   Now only..if the market can shake the ugly numbers from BSC due out and we'll have a clearer picture as to where we are going.   It's confession time for all these boys.    We've attached the importance of earnings this week to possibly set or at least curtail the latest slide, last night Oracle reported a big quarter on all fronts. This includes getting it finally right on what is usually their very so-so Q year after year.  Is this a forward to what we may expect from more tech firms ahead or is it just a anomaly of sorts?.  It does bring a potential boost today to techs, but this might be short lived as RIMM reports AH.  Let's hope RIMM makes it back to back, other wise this Oracle number will be forgotten quickly.  In the meantime today,  FDX , BSC, ORCL can lead the way in 3 essential  areas to a very big day....let's wait and see.

LRN,  if you took your eye off K12 yesterday, you found a surprise on your next look as it probably jumped another $1 or more.  We said this might see high 20's if it just got some volume.  Guess didn't need it as hit $30 and up almost 50% since we alerted the buy in the first hour of it's debut last week.  Only regret and you could blame the weak market last week is we didnt go crazy into it.             Ah..the great trader/investor motto...could've..should've..would've!.  lol..    A pullback would be great as its up 50% from its opening price, but it just might be getting discovered so its best to watch the volume as a pullback might not be so swift for your first entry or a re-entry.   We've taken most off the table and will look for the re-entry, in the meantime we dipped into APEI after it passed it's initiation day with a few nice buy targets.  You can only dip as this is trading lightly and has only a 4.5 mln float.   With all the messes out there lately, we think these educational online plays are under radar.   Actually, they are the perfect stocks for a holiday buying frenzy if the manipulators want to drive a stock or two higher next week as in years past.

WBD, another recent buy in alert after earnings. This followed what we outlined here the past week quite well, it did look right the day before at 121 in a market where nothing was looking right and it hurled $124 for another entry before ticking up to 130.  A nice run and it did hold up well, but as we've repeated over and over lately....take what a stock gives you and walk away. In this case it was more than enough.  We'll look for re-entry here as well.  The volume has not come in yet as it has in the past on runs and so we'll look for it with a break over yesterdays high levels.

MBT,  we've been spreading out our risk lately and this means using foreign ADR plays (VIP,WBD as well), in specific regions like Russia. MBT, looked very strong yesterday and it held its break of the recent channel top.  This one can move fast and we are eyeing it back to recent highs.

MA, really beaten up the last few days on the Euro ruling for months and months to come.  In the near term this should affect MA's profits as it does not cover the majority (over 90%)  of MA's volume. Ma should get back on track after all this noise is digested.

Solars,  LDK guided EPS in-line, a downgrade and what you might have is some pressure on solars.  We'd use any negative reaction spreading to take advantage of the dips in the usual suspects.  These plays are not going away by a longshot in the short term.


DJIM 51, 2007

The truth is, when calling for an overall market direction, technical analysis alone is just not enough.    This market has been volatile and it's been difficult calling a one way action for both the bulls and bears.    We have definitely been in a zigzagging mode during the past few weeks.  Since the late November rally, you can say we've been stuck in a pretty big trading range with some wild swings both ways.    Fortunately, we think we may be near a point where we can finally get some meaningful action going.  At this point we are getting what we wanted last week despite the market looking technically troubled at that stage.... .."...the only reasons not to abandon the market is the fact(s),  we are waiting for earnings, hopefully to spark the market, the seasonal factor to move the market up and the fact volume is low on this sell off, which also allows for opportunity for a sizeable swing(s) to the upside on the same low volume.    Let's add one more and that is the proverbial bounce possibility now. Santa has enough things in his sleigh to run over the Bears still, but he needs help from companies announcing earnings this week first.".......    We are not being the overly optimistic bulls as caution is still needed.  We are simply going to be watching events, especially earnings closely that may shape up the trading action for the next little while.     Friday's option expiration pop may seem a little suspicious,  but it can also be said that we could've very well gone the other way not really knowing the expectation the day before.    Fact is, the market rose in a very healthy percentage and now we have to deal with what the possible scenario that may lie ahead of us.

In our opinion, the market is ready to cheer for some good news.    We now know what this market is capable of when good news is put in front of it.   Basically there was couple of key events, an earning report from RIMM, a back to back with ORCL, and news of possible foreign cash infusion into MER.   Big techs had strong positive reaction and financials also traded well.     We have been saying this for a while that in order for this market to gain any upside momentum, we need companies to deliver earnings that show no slowdown in growth and no signs of recession.   Also, financials need to go up on headlines, good or bad ones, or at least stay steady on the bad stuff.   MS/ BSC trading firmed up despite the expected blow ups during the week.

The coming week is a short trading week and we have just 3 1/2 trading days to deal with.    While we can assume that many traders have taken the week off to spend time with the families, we believe some traders may be taking advantage of the light volume holiday week to push some stocks around.     We are looking at none other than the solar sector and any other stocks made the recent headline in a good way.  The ones that have made the recent 52 week high are also high on our trading list.

A rundown here with solar stocks that include STP FSLR JASO SOLF CSIQ, popular stocks include AAPL RIMM MA,  Russian stocks like MBT WBD VIP, and recent additions include RSTI LRN APEI are all on our top trading list.

We definitely had a pretty turbulent year but we can still end the year on a high note.   Stay with the best performing plays because those may be the ones to get us off to a good start in the new year. 

As we said above technical analysis is not enough, but with the DJIA and NASD closing at 13450 and 2691 respectively, we are getting more comfortable with the market.   Last week in weekend charts, we noted"..The DJIA /NASD are below our comfort levels of 13500 and 2700 respectively, but since volume is expected to whittle down in the coming days... anything is possible.  This includes big upside days that can easily get us to the levels noted and away from 13300....".   Anything was possible as Santa seems to have gased up and we should move over the above levels into the New Year.  Another possible positive technical scenario and a possible Bear stinger is the action in the small cap RUT, IWM as the down trendline from September might be busted shortly.  The Bears might have a lack of blueberries to fuel on if we cross here.  We are possibly entering the seasonal small cap outperformance of large caps into the month of January, this is probably coinciding perfectly with a break to be over the trendline noted. 

A Merry Christmas to our DJIM friends and your families!