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Entries in CROX (13)


It's still not

We are definitely a bit tired from the trading last couple of days.    For a little while yesterday, we were wondering why some of the little ones weren't participating with the recent market move.    Well, that was no longer a concern early on today.   Like we said last night sometimes DJIM stocks like to do it on their own terms and "come out strong the next day" after a day of non rally participation.  The little ones, namely NGA 17% to high of day and IDSA 16% to high, both had very good sorry... excellent days! and we are just glad they are behaving exactly the way we wanted them to.     What we are also being amazed by, is the resiliency of this market.   Earning plays, as long as they beat or guide up, are being bid up aggressively.    We haven't seen this much enthusiasm even during the winter quarter.

Whatever it is,  both institutions and retail clients are making money in this market.    This is a good thing.    We at DJIM, try to play a little bit of everything and try not to exclude ourselves from any potentially good opportunities.  This is also because we have a diverse group of members/ traders.   You'd see us playing a $100 stock as much as a under$10 dollar cheapie.   Why is it so?  We just can't rule out any possibility that a $100 play may give u as big of a bang for the buck as a $9 play.     As for our readers, we'd try to give as many heads up as we can regarding various good plays based on our experience.  Today, we tossed in a scalp possibility in GTI, still a earning play for traders tossing nice dollars and sizes around. This was a 2-3-4% possible trade.  Experienced traders can recognize the action and decide when to go in and out quickly, so a lead is all that is needed to something that might be playable.

Now lets get to the nitty gritty of things...

NGA,  small stocks attract the most attention and it's no exception at DJIM.   Briefing had a little profile yesterday but we wouldn't call it a most optimistic summary.   In any case, the stock rallied hard today and action today looked inevitable based on previous days' action.    What's driving this is the possibility of an IBD100 inclusion.    This is still quite a far way off.   However, as long as the attitude and mentality is to trade toward $15 level, we'd know exactly what to expect and how to deal with it here.    This NGA, also had smells of institutions stepping in, based on volume.   Whether those institutions are hedge funds or mutual funds or momentum based short term funds, we don't care.   It IS in play and that's the way it is.   We just have to take advantage of this liquidity and trade it in sizes.    Oh yes, trading in sizes does matter a lot in terms of potential profit and losses.     Generally, when a stock has strong momentum and trade in liquid fashion, we tend to take on bigger size and ride them higher.

IDSA, so what's next?    Hopefully, some of you have locked in some profit from the previous days' accumulation.  We're sure most would have been happy seeing mid 15's by Friday close!.   Why sell now you ask?  We say, why not?  We've been saying 12-13's are where we are buying for days now.  If the whole point of playing IDSA at this point is IBD100 theme, then you can't help but to think that the end might be near once it IS included in the list.    If somehow the trading characteristic of IDSA changes after the IBD100 inclusion, then we just have to change our approach a bit and trade accordingly.    For now, we are treating it as just an IBD inclusion play.

MA, wow is a good description and this is the reason why we are playing some of these 100 dollar stocks. Up 7% or  8 pts since yesterdays buy in. We added some early today on its strength and  are looking for further upside as long as the market is in a good mood.  We got what we talked about in the Journal and have decided to hold and add more despite it hitting our target of getting in 130's!.

SPAN, we covered this buy-in pretty well in Alerts section and we are very happy with its move to $26 today and about 5% off the Alert time. We knew about this one for a while but the action was too slooooow. Now we have had 3 consecutive days of 90k+ volume up days and this stock must be getting on some screens and being discovered as an earnings gem with a tidy mini float.  Still, don't forget stocks don't go straight up though for days!.

Anyways...Great day whatever you are trading here! ....A few for freaky Friday below..

DNDN, timing is really everything when it comes to this one.   Some of you can argue that you had this one in your portfolio for days and you knew it's gonna go up all along.   We say that's just as fine.   But to us, we used the capital to played all those big point gainers while some ppl are waiting in the flatlined action from DNDN last few days.   No biggie, it's just opportunity cost.   To us, we wait for the right moment and strike.   We struck today late and have held our shares overnight.   Hopefully we get some good follow through tomorrow and ring the register.

CROX, this one is almost sure a gapper for tomorrow and we bot a couple in AH just so we are in the groove as well.  The guidance is just crazy!

Also a small position in CUB at the close to test out the waters.  Maybe this blowout number gets some upgrades in the next couple of days and breaks recent high. It's not flyer, but they all don't have to be.


DJIM # 19 2007

" Go hard or go home", off last weekends Journal held through and true this past week.  Opportunities are abound and this recent activity has been the time to take advantage of what we are being given by the market gods and what we are giving you.   We look forward to more of the same this week.   Fingers crossed!.   By the looks/ feel of it, only outside influence from abroad can curb this enthusiasm we are seeing.  So keep your eyes on the markets overseas for any hints.  This way we could all say, FIFO..first in, first out.  Until this possibility or some other event occurs, we will keep on riding the earning reports and more.  Last week, we had another fun trip...NGA, IDSA, MA, SPAN, a few nice tradable opp's in DNDN, VOXW, GTI.  Clearly DJIM is being selective and getting into right plays!   Also a few late in the week pick ups with potential in FSLR, CROX, we hope they have a good market to show its true deserving colors.   What's important to remember is what we've discussed before and that is having cash on hand to buy.   Sometimes this means even cutting a EPS laggard after a day or so,  just so you could get into a better play.   We are even doing this as the number of stocks has grown in our book recently and we'd like to keep it manageable .  We don't want too many, we only want the best possibilities!!.   Examples of this might be a VSEA, CUB type.  Their day might come, but if a CROX shows up after you just pick up a starter in a CUB the same day, it is better to ditch the CUB to the curb.   If you already made 7pts in a MA in a few days, there is probably a better chance you'll get something close to 7 points elsewhere faster again,  so switch up to a fresher expensive name in this market for now and consider coming back to the play left behind if it behaves right later.... now the names crossing the DJIM wire...

SPAN, a crawler being discovered is just what this is. A nice pick up last week and quick but steady 2 day rise of 10%/ nearly 3pts to highs.  Overall a 30% move on the week and some hesitation, consolidation might be in order. #5 rank in IBD leading Medical stocks with 90 97 this weekend.

DNDN, definitely this was worth the wait for a 'strike' and the timing was perfect. You could almost see it coming as it traded to $19 AH's Thursday.  We concluded Thursday Journal note on DNDN with 'ring the register'.   If you didn't on a potential 3 point move or 17% on a speculative stock play...well that's just silly.  It was only the 4th of May...the15th is approaching and we will look for another ring the register entry possibility as that day nears.

FSLR, ...NO!..we are not playing the solar sector here just yet again,  we are trading the FSLR on the heels of its earning and guidance.  Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.07 per share, $0.07 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of ($0.00); revenues rose 391.9% YOY to $66.9 mln vs the $52.8 mln consensus. Sees FY07 revs of $370-$400 mln vs $326.97 mln consensus.  Simply FSLR is clicking in its execution and capacity ramp ups behind closed doors and this can't be overlooked.  We don't know what ASTI or the likes have cookin', so we go back to our favorite from this space last Q.       We bot in the afternoon as the stock started to take out the days high levels over $66.

RCCC, this was a earning play we've been looking to add again for some time.  We added late Friday.  The co' already pre-released their Q1 back on April 16 and has Bear Stearns riding a upgrade on it.   The co's call was only Friday and w/o listening to it, we'd say there was nothing negative said judging by Fridays potential breakout move.

CROX,  with a gap over $10, we really didn't expect to see more covering just yet on the first day.  It will come and we expect nothing less than to be in the 70's here soon market willing.   Maybe it will be as soon as Monday, if it does as our MA holding on its 2nd day.  To our member wearing CROX while trading, consider the static generated by CROX's is knocking out respirators in Swedish your trading platform!!

ATV,  if the market is hot , we expect IPO's to feel quite fuzzy as well, even if this sec ain't the hottie now.  There is always or will be an appetite for China IPO's and we can't overlook this one after DJIM successes with EDU, MR, HMIN in 2006-07.   This is already 2X over IPO price.  Let it sink in first, if you are wanting more than a trade possibility now.  We are trading it now.  The company runs TV direct sales programs, which are typically five to ten minutes in length, on four nationwide China Central Television, or CCTV, channels, 28 national satellite TV channels, four international satellite channels operating in China and eight local channels.

NGA,  definitely one of the best gainers/ buy in of the week by DJIM early Monday.  This one does not always trade as pretty as it did last week, we expect some dippers along the way as this makes a possible move into IBD100 life.   Again, we are playing the potential IBD inclusion with these types, not the aftermath of sticking on the list at first.  We'll decide on stocks making IBD when it happens for a further trade possibility.

TO, you have to accept these plays act up in spurts and make sure not to be taken out with the gyrations on little volume.  If it goes up a dollar quickly, it could do the same the other way before going back back up.   Patience is required on these types that don't have much history if you decide to enter them.   Volume is an to day.   Anyways,  a nice move off 9ema and a NCH, Friday.    Keep VOXW on radar for these types of moves and not necessarily off 9ema, it could be just a PR of some sorts that rockets it again. 

IDSA, hopefully you played it like us and are sitting free of it this weekend.  If you didn't cash out with another late day opportunity over $15 Friday, well then you don't wanna hear this again, "you might be heading for a disappointment come Friday 4pm with some opportunities missed in other places".  It was quite disappointing from a distance looking in on this, not only did not close over $15, it was a feeble effort to do so late in the day.  On the hand,  it was also a disappointment it didn't crash late in the day off the 'exclusion' of not even holding $15, so we could buy back in the $13's and do it all over again next    We might just have to anyway!.   Instead it was last months, IBD inclusion play at DJIM, SPEC showing it up and taking IDSA's thunder and making it to #25. 

Other earning names from this Q, we have secondary scattered positions or trading/ eyeing still...VSEA, NTLS, WST, SSYS, CUB, ADPI, ALGN, TRCR to go with usual suspects  BTJ, DXPE, MFW *EPS out Friday AH, CPY.  This pretty well rounds out our trading crop this Q.  

Keep an eye on GROW in the morning off EPS....with Gold being up up as much as 15%(approx) this year at one point, you'd think they had influx of funds into their precious metals last Q and would produce a kick ass report.   But, we are not here to think, we are here to 'DO' and act. So we wait for the report.

Yeah..Yeah our Raps lost..great game! ....but our Raptor claw logo has taken a chunk of the market while up and we ain't messin' or are we knockin' the little good luck charm off the site for now!...



Taking more out...

Of course, as we start the day, nobody has any idea how that day will turn out.   Being a trader, it's extremely difficult to prepare yourself "well" for the day.    If you have been in this game for as long as we have, the hardest part of the trading is to anticipate a market "turn".  Sometimes you just go with your market sense, sometimes all this is, is your gut.  Well, we feel today's action is discouraging at best.    The action from indices may be deceiving as there's really no sense of urgency of cashing out.   We feel that under the circumstance, it's best to be more cautionary as oppose to hunky dory.     Maybe it's just us, but we definitely feel that certain plays are getting a little bit tired.  All this might be coinciding with the driving force recently and that is earning season is wrapping up.   How can we tell?   We watch the combination of volume + price action and their behaviour relative to the overall market.     Many if not most of our trading decisions are based on our past experience, and so we decided to reduce our exposure about mid way through the day.     On the other hand, if the market decides to give it another quick push, we'd be there quickly and do our part.   As always, buying decision is far more easier and quicker to execute than selling. At this point, we think weve had a great earning season, we are not about to get lackadaisical look on our faces watching our profits wilt.

There is a couple of stock setups which we feel we need to mention today and let's get right to them...

NGA, this co., oddly enough, announced that they are going to have a 3 for 2 split.   In our opinion, what the heck is the management thinking?  Yes, we definitely do not like this announcement and we reduced most of our position earlier during the day.    The stock, in our opinion, is liquid enough which does not require a split to attract more "investors".  We don't go with management reasoning this will make NGA more liquid and available to investors, including institutions of course.  3 for 2, just doesn't cut it.  Funny thing also, we'd also highly doubt that most of traders who are involved in this stock are long term investors.   In our experience, companies which have announced split at this price level have not fared well, most of the time.   Of course, we aren't just going to ditch this play for good and stick to our emotional opinion.     The IBD play is still on target but we'd be more cautious if we decide to get back into this one again.   

CROX, if it wasn't for the weakness of the overall market, we might have been a bit more aggressive with this one.   Nonetheless, this one had a new closing high and we added a few times to day, including near the end of day.

MTOX, this one actually turned out to be possibly the best trade of the day.   We threw out the 'lead' before 10am and soon were in it mid 26's for a run to 28.  When you have a nice quick gain and the market shows signs of a turn, you have no choice but to give up your new pick. Maybe..we should have bought back end of day as it fell back down to low 26's, but we were just not in the mood to get cheeky.

SPAN, RCCC, NTLS, AFAM, these recent alert plays are humming along quietly in the background and we've used that to sell some just in case.  These have been secondary plays in sizes as the NGA, IDSA's, LXU etc. have been the primary plays lately.  We still have some scattered shares of these, but it is nothing that can do any sort of damage to us.

ERS, we picked up some AH's, just couldn't ignore the 40% revenue increase with the stock hovering near recent low's. This could be just a flip into any strength tomorrow. We'll see if there is any appetite for this old gamer.



A day of rest it seems.  Not much conviction, a few flickers of green and then much ado about nothing
by the close as the Bulls got the sword in it's butt and backed off for the time being.  Sitting Bull.  At this point, we are not expecting new stocks to emerge as quickly. So, what we do is look to the stocks we have played or watchlisted this Q to see if these names have any potential if the melt up continues.  Preparation is best, trading stock for the sake of trading is not.   A little boredom might sink in, but sticking to your style..your niche is essential.  Easiest way to curb your need for a hit might be to look at your successful trades recently and see if what you are considering to trade has any of the characteristics of your winners.  Simply, we are not seeing a NGA, IDSA, LXU, CROX emerge. Still micro-small caps will still continue to expose themselves while you hear earning season is basically over now.  So what do we do?, well we back off and just bother each other over IM until a play comes along we like and fits DJIM.   So, considering we are not seeing anything new come that needs immediate's a few you have seen cross the DJIM wire recently that we are holding and/or adding to today.

TBSI, we like to nickname our stocks. Tipsy is fitting for TBSI in the first hour today. We thought we'd better get the barf bags out for the quesy ones as it slipped from a good open to low 20's. We knew of the shipping D-grade before the open on a few names but we did not think this would it would spread to the TBSI,DRYS and a few others BofA did not cover.  When the drop started, the first thing we looked for was how the sector names were performing.  Seeing a few names had rebounded already, we averaged down and took more TBSI on.  By the early afternoon, it was back grinding away at $21 and eod definitely had some steady buy interest.  If this this makes it to IBD this weekend, it will be a new name to many and will most likely have interest next week. This one is completely different than the IDSA inclusion type play goal of $15 where you expect to sell the following Monday on the exuberance follow through.  This a dry bulk shipper,  a hot sec with earnings numbers that will be revised after their report.  We mentioned DRYS and the sector back in April, few money players might be looking for a new name to grasp. We hope Tipsy could be it.

CROX,  This is as pure a earning play as you will ever get.  You can't beat this Q's results and guidance. Solid since our first buy-in mid 60's AH, it is now closing on 80.  We said the guidance was crazy and with a little patience you are seeing what a stock that actually has a solid company behind it can do.  An upgrade was noted yesterday, don't be fooled these upgrades don't show it's worth immediately.  It's the D-grades that you should worry about immediately. Volume was there today, highest since earning day.

GTI,  hung in there and looks to be shaping up for a try at IBD tomorrow. This one is quite different than the
IDSA, NGA we have considered as a IBD inclusion plays.  There are hedgies here that will knock you
down silly if the trip to $15 gets silly with exuberance. Think of it, you are a hedgie and you know the crowd
might be bidding hard for 15, maybe you'd just set a wall of sells at/near/above $15 on a Friday?. Could be a lot
of smoke and mirrors tomorrow...also, you don't know who might be pushing it up, including other hedgies late
in the week...and you don't who's waiting at $15 if it gets there.  Take out the IBD stuff and you have a pure turnaround story who's bottom line is changing. Sooner than later this will be at $15 +....Volume should surpass 2mln easily tomorrow and like CROX volume maybe the kick start to a good close.

Speaking of volume..this is what is lacking right now in some other holds like FWLT, LXU etc.  Like CROX today, volume tick to the upside should be what gets these stocks rolling again and gives us a reason to add shares.



Small Caps...

The small caps definitely outperformed the rest of the market today.    Perhaps, fittingly, the lagging action finally moved to our neck of the neighbourhood.    RUT index was the strongest among all the indices and it shows in majority of stocks on our play list.   In fact, everything seemed to be green today all across the board.  Our hunch that the NASD/small cap play catch up in last nights Journal was clear early today with the NASD climbing to almost 30+ and DJIM small caps in tow.   If Dow hadn't reversed intraday, we are sure that some of the bigger stuff of our small cap world would've closed much better.   There was some excellent action in MA CROX early..oh well, such is life, we can't always wish for a perfect scenario and we'll just have to take today as an overall good day.

Onto some plays here...

NGA, now that this one made the IBD list, why is it still going up?    Why not?  Again, before the split announcement, we were much more bullish on the potential of this play.   The split, now come think of it, may just add an unwanted twist to an otherwise great story/play.   From the look of it today, momentum is still there and the stock notched a new high off very good volume.  This is what we wanted, a NCH.  How do we approach this one now?   Much like what we did with GROW back then when we rode it from $30 to $70(pre split), we play till the music stops.     We'd be watching this 9 ema religiously and the higher NGA trades, the more cautious we'd get and smaller the size we'd trade on.  There was no monkey business and the stock carried on without the usual IBD shenanigans. To us this was a good sign.    The easiest of the easy money, however, in our opinion, was made from $10 to $15.   That run-up had the great probability with limited downside and lots of liquidity.   So folks, take this one as a good lesson if you hadn't made much off this one.    A play like this will come again, sooner or later.

FWLT 4%, triple digit club, enough said!   We cashed out some around $100 and will see if this one can take out the psychological level and move into a new trading territory.    The story is definitely not over by any means and we feel this one may last a long while on our play list.

NTLS 2.2% RCCC 3.4% CUB 1.6% AFAM 4%, these three keep on rocking and they are up like most other small caps.   We've been very happy with these quite runners so far and we aren't doing much with them unless they show sign of stalling.

SPAR 6% FRPT 5%, these two made a b/o today and we are treating them as a pair trade that moves together.   We were adding/ trading some today but are keeping our time frame short

USU, even though this one trades heavy, we like the way it closed today and we think its business is independent of the overall market sentiment.

DXPE, "load, weekend alert, gap, dump",  oops, did we just give out the secret of a certain trading guru? lol. SYNL and now DXPE back to back.  In fact, we'd like this move much much more without its status being "stock of the week" freebie.   Given the statistical result of past "stocks of the week", we'd be a bit more cautious if still thinking about chasing the move.

Even TRT answered our question from last bounced...imagine if didn't on a day/ set up like todays!.  We'll see if it gets to highs before considering it again for more than a quick flip opportunity.



Be prepared...

Summer trading may be dull but days like today cannot be ignored by market participants.    Perhaps, since the majority of the traders expected a non moving and slightly lower market trend with slow volume the next little while, we may just get the opposite of that.     Of course, one strong day in the summer does not mean that we'd be starting a summer rally monkey chant.     What we feel, at this point is that we cannot rule out the possibility.     We had two market moving catalysts today, the sell off in China and Fed. minutes.   Both news bits could have potentially sparked a sell off over here but the market managed to shrug off both bits and shot up as a result.    To really put this into perspective, it means that we as traders will have to keep up with our A game and not to let up on potential days like today.    One thing that's obvious here, is that when the market performs strong, the beta stocks lead the charge.    Some of the small caps, momentum or not, may eventually play the catch up game.    The key here, is to recognize which stocks are in play and which one are not.   It's absolutely critical that we do not take our own personal opinion in speculating which stocks may be in play. You have a watchlist of recent winning plays that you can and should easily turn to again when called for, like today   Let the volume show us, and let the market decide which flavour it wants to put in play.    Follow the trend closely and act decisively, we may just have a good summer ahead of us.

MA FWLT CROX,  oh yes, the big guns of DJIM earning plays this Q were just glamorizing the indices move today.   Of course, it'd be strange and potentially worrisome if these one do not participate in the rally today.    The game with these is simple, when market turns green and stays in course, it's almost a given to scalp some nice points off these.    But of course, if you were in these since the day we alerted (EPS), then you'd be in good shape whether you scalp or not by now. The big and easy points have been made here as it stands now, this does not mean you can`t make more points on these in a good market.

PCS,  if you took anything away from the Journal last night, well then you probably were on your way early today to a nice close and a 6% day. A NCH is not far away here.  TTC, another recent EPS buy in closed with a NCH.

RCCC CUB TRCR, call these DJIM crawlers or whatever you wish, they all managed a new high today !

ATV, this one had a very nice pop going into the earning tomorrow and it's capped by a late day sell off.   Understandably, nobody here wants to hold through the earning.   At least, those who have rode it for a few points and those who have a rigid discipline like us would not hold through the earning.   If it so happens the stock gaps up off really strong EPS tomorrow, we'd be right there to bid it higher.  

Well that's it!...nothing else is worth mentioning........NOT!. There was little Novcea..

NOVC, wow eh!....was that not the most exciting 30-40 minutes!!.  This turned into momo momo.  The most important ingredient in trading is recognizing the potential of a stock, so you can fly with it if-when it takes off.   You have 5 tool baseball players, B.Bonds was one but became just a tool...well this was 5 tool stock!..cheapness, float, news, big pharma, big $$ involved.  We've had some amazing moves here, catching a few at the bottom before a big fast move.  These include the FWLT bust out, the CMI squeeze, the MFW ride last Q and now NOVC below $11 before the huge pop to $17+.  These one day moves are powerful and we don`t give a damn if they last 30min or a day.   The result is the same.  You can do in 1 day, what takes some weeks,  months to do in the way of a return.   Our summer was made today in less than 30minutes, but being the idiot traders we are!..we were looking for more to trade within minutes.  From the emails we received today, quite a few did very well too and might be going on a summer   The rush of a big win just keeps us going for more day after day, so we`ll stick around and look for more.   Usually, we would just leave a play like this after giving it one big whirl.  Instead, we were buying some back as volume picked up late in the day.  CNBC always helps.   Like the ACOR, VNDA, DNDN`s plays,  we put NOVC into the speculative DJIM room and will trade it day to day, hour to hour now.  To us the easy money has been made and that is what we first look for in spec stocks.


A Good Test...

When a market participant looks for a catalyst that can potentially change the general direction of the market, he/she usually looks at the homefront, where it matters.    Sure, last few days the oh so powerful Shanghai market seemed to have derailed badly but there isn't any talk of catastrophic consequence in their economy as a result.   Hence, the action did not spill over to America and whatever happens there, stays there.   Today we had a little something different and the worry stemmed from within America and the never ending talk of "interest/inflation worry" came up again and many talking heads feel this is the cause for today's slide.    For us, we literally had to check our quotes more than a few times just to realize that we are indeed in a "selloff".    Oh yeah, GOOG just made a new high and closed well over $500.    Maybe, people are just spooked by the fact we haven't had a good ole "whack the bid" kind of day in a long time.   So there, we got the selloff today and it's time to move on.

Aside from the Index action(which is total BS in our opinion), we are seeing some very good and healthy action among few individual stocks and certain sectors.     Ok folks, whenever you see more than 90% of holdings on your watchlist are having a bad day, then you may get a bit worrisome and think about some quick exit strategy.    Good breadth gives us the courage to stay and chase while bad breadth simply chases us away.   In our opinion, breadth is the key telling of whether we should be hanging in this market or not.

TNH, +5%, this one did not disappoint a bit and came out smoking off yesterdays buy in and finished just as strong.    This is in fact a new closing high and it'd be interesting to see if it can challenge the triple digit area.    The whole group seems to be up today and we wouldn't be surprised if this one goes even higher given the sustained movement in the entire sector.

CROX, whenever the other two DJIM big guns are taking a rest, this one takes over the baton and charges higher.    This is almost 20 pts higher since our initial buy about a month ago.    This goes to show that whenever we see a highly liquid stock with a very favorable probability of pulling multi point runup, we just have to go in big and patient.    By the way, during the runup thus far, this one has never closed below 9 ema.   It kissed 9 ema a couple of times but that's about it.   This is a sign of a very strong stock, historically speaking.   As a matter of fact, exact same deal with both FWLT and MA, neither of those closed below 9 ema ever since their EPS breakout.

GHM, this is an old name that came out with an excellent Q.  We admired the effort premkt as some(one) was working hard to prop up the price. buying lots of 50 shares, including one order at 23+ plus.  Unfortunately, they don't seem to know these odd lots don't appear on many trading platforms. Oh well. The action picked up a bit premkt and it traded to $22 in the first 10minutes and $23 in 10 more after the bell.  ,With the market sliding, a CCall coming and we just preferred to play some later on a probable dip later.

A few a stocks off yesterdays buy list hung in tough considering the early market action, but especially since they were up big yesterday. This includes KMGB LPHI  AHD and ATLS which was given a tgt bump up to $67 by FBR

CUB, up over 25% since we alerted May 3rd closed with another NCH, this is probably finally being recognized as a defense name!. Another DJIM defense stock hovering near highs, SPAR also had a nice day up 7%

MFLO LXU,  we are keeping a close eye on these two as both are in our opinion setting up for a potential b/o into new highs.




A true test...

If yesterday was a good test of your holdings against a shaky market, then today definitely gives a true appreciation of how "good" your holds are.     Of course, if we get few more back to back shaky days like today, it probably wouldn't have mattered much what you hold.   Overall, we think the market action is healthy.    For whatever the catalyst/excuse that caused the slide, it's needed to correct this market into a healthier stand.    This is assuming that this is not the beginning of an end for this market here.   At this point, we don't believe it is and we are acting that way also.

We have a number of good closes today and given another hour, we think some more stocks culd have battled their way into the green.    Individualism is running full and strong in this market today.   Breadth is poor but if most of your holdings are in green territory, you'd feel that you are doing something right and will try to keep it up.   Can you imagine if last two days were up?   We'd been asking that question throughout last couple of days...

KMGB LPHI,  these two were the stars two days off their respective earnings announcement and they've held up very well despite the market weakness.   We added some LPHI today because we feel this one has had the best action amongst our holds.

CROX, good stock battles back and this one did exactly that toward the end.     As it comes near its split date and we think the action will heat up accordingly.

AHD, so this one only did less than 40k shrs today.   This stock also has only 4 mill float and probably less if you take into account the institutional holders.    We liked the deal that was announced couple of days ago and think this one definitely has the potential to move up.

GHM CUB put in very respectable green days as well.

Many recent names here such as NTLS MFW LXU RCCC ATLS TTC SPAR MA TBSI barely broke a sweat in the profit taking sweep across the market,  even the volatile TNH battled at over $95 till the last 30 minutes. 

One we added today, VSNT (Co reported May29th,Q2 EPS of $0.52 vs $0.32 in 2Q06; revs rose 37% YoY to $5.2 mln (no estimates). Co raises FY07 guidance to $1.50-1.62) falls into above category.  But as we said at the start, if we get more shaky days it probably won't matter what you hold.  Unless it's cash of course.



Sluggish mkt...except

The only thing last weeks terrible performance not do to DJIM stocks was put a ribbon on them for today's action.  Today was definitely a GIFT as there were plenty of remarkable performances.  You have to figure the bargain hunting started Thursday afternoon and today was just the icing.  With the icing comes some froth, which is always a good time to pocket some points.  That is unless you think a KMGBTNH, GMH, CROX will put up back to back huge days.   We'd rather not think and just line our pockets first and then consider re-entry.  This is especially true when DJIM stocks are outperforming the market as a whole.   We love NCH's but when you get a intraday 10%+ move in a KMGB or a 8pt move from TNH since friday, we will always take a load off and ignore a potential NCH end of day..... This is especially true if the market is showing signs of losing steam off only modest gains during the day.   You couldn't really call this bargain hunting buying as almost all of these big gainer stocks were already trading near highs, so maybe it was just being in the right place at the right time.  But the right place and the right time require the right stocks!.   Not much else to say about today, hopefully this euphoria over DJIM's today carries over to the rest of the market tomorrow.  We can't survive on our own.


Shaky start ends with a ....

Shaky Finish!    Once again, the relief rally we had two days ago is erased from our memory and we are back where we were pretty much the day before last Friday.    Some can argue that having worries is good and it's called "climb a wall of worry".    We definitely have some cause for worry these days and it's mainly because of the dreaded "interest rate talk" and resulting jump in the 10 year bond yield.   So, now we have the worry and ask can we climb this?    Theoretically, yes we can.   Technically, it's going to be very tough if we don't have any near term positive catalyst that can drive this market higher.    So, we are definitely feeling the heat both from the market and from outside our air conditioned environment.   The key to cope with both kind of situation is to stay cool, and very cool we have to be.

Well, our strategy in this kind of market is  1. We trade very short term and use technical signs rigorously.  2. We only trade those that are making new highs or are in a setup to do so 3. We stay very liquid and will not make any sizable bets  4. Hope is the word we are taking out of our vocabulary which means we only trade on what we see out there.      Basically, you can get the idea that the last thing we want to do at this point is to turn ourselves from traders into investors.    You'd be surprised that how many seasoned traders can fall into the trap with just one little slip.   We just have to stick to what have gotten us to this point and we are taking many lessons from the past summers into incorporating our strategy.

here are some stocks of interest...

KMGB/LPHI,  as much as we've liked the recent action from these two, we've felt compelled to part way with most of our shares as the major indices deteriorates and while there are profits to take this week.   This market is not about hoping but rather acting on better probabilities.    At this point, this market feels about as uncertain as it gets.   With last Friday's low looming around the horizon, we just don't know if the next push will send it lower and spark some more nasty action.    This is not a calling the top shot for these stocks but rather it's just our own defensive and mechanical maneuver to take some good profits in a murky market environment.   We are very glad that these two stocks held up well enough to provide us with some very nice gains.   Of course, if market gives us clear direction that it's headed higher, we'd be sure to have these two back on our priority trading list.

CROX, this is the same story as above except this one has served us much better and much longer.   This one has got everything you can ask for, liquidity, chart and a hot story.   We don't know how much of the rise lately is due to the up coming split but we feel if we don't sell some more here, we'd just be asking for it.    We are still keeping a little and will see how much more it can take us at this point.

RCCC, we guess something has to shine in this market and this unlikely hero is there to give us a reason to get up early tomorrow and trade.   We'd think some of our other uneventful stocks such as MFLO VSNT TRCR etc. may become the "unlikely heroes" in this uncertain market.  We just have to keep a close eye on those day in and day out. MFLO is a dime off a NCH and we picked some up today.


..out of breath?

Early on yesterday it seemed like many DJIM plays just carried on Friday's action as if the weekend never came.  We saw action continue in the Shippers..DRYS, EXM...Solars..LDK JASO..Chinese..JRJC,BIDU stocks rolled, Russian stocks...GLDN, ROS had good days and a few like GRMN, and even CROX finally broke to the upside after a long period of consolidation.  Some lasted, some didn't and faltered as if out of breath.  Some definitely felt extended and if anything switching into names just breaking out might be a way to go now.   Basically a switch of asset classes you might say.   On Sept 13, we said a trend might emerge..."A possible theme emerging in our bored minds, even if it this play really never left  is the potential for DJIM foreign stocks.   Primarily, the Chinese and Russian telcos because some might be seeing the US' slowing economy and a faster global economy as a reason to get into foreign stocks.  This fact is just clearer now after Fridays employment figs and some might see it as a way out...".   Have you seem the dramatic recovery of the emerging markets since the low's hit on Aug 13th.  This is mostly driven by the BRIC economies..Brazil, Russia, India, China.  This BRIC index already was up 29% last friday, outperforming the emerging markets as a whole which was up just under 10%.  We definitely can't do all the letters of the BRIC, but trading the Russian and China has been a way to go.  A look at MCSI index will show this bubble like action.  This might be a bubble forming, but the underlying economic and earnings growth is there to support it for the time being and trading the China, Russian plays might be the safer bet right now than the high flying shippers, solars.......

DRYS, EXM..lets' be realistic. The last few days is money just waiting to be taken off the table. Don't forget the volatility swings both ways and when these rest..they really rest.

LDK, JASO, and the solars. We are actually surprised  by the strength exhibited by LDK early on.  Reason being a downgrade came in the morning, but it did come with some good news.  Eventually, the downgrade and the recent action took its toll and it succumbed to profit taking in a big did JASO's run.   Let this action serve as a reminder of what we face trading these high flying shippers...solars.

IRBT, was a open speculative buy alert that ended on a good note. There is a possibility IRBT might be given a 2nd chance for the contract given to another company that sank this stock recently. We'll see as news is impending and that gap looks juicy on good news,  if it gets to that level starting over $19.

With the stocks talked above that show or showed signs of being extended, we'd turn to closely watch the potential in some names that came back up on radar yesterday..GRMN CROX APOG VMW  GTLS  ANW (new..but if shippers falter, this may too), for more trading possibilities in the right trading environment.



but...considering the futures premarket and the somewhat grim, yet not horrible Eco #'s, the action in quite a few DJIM plays wasn't undermined. The market is finding some stability in the multi nationals and the dollars lows for technology stocks as if business will go on and prosper from the economies abroad.   This is all dandy but a lot of the action is institutions swooping up and dressing their books for Q end.   This should provide a decent vibe for the rest of the week unless some Eco' numbers come in and shock the markets.   If the energy and bank stock would participate, the majority with tech comprising the SPX and we would get a very decent up day before the Q ends.   So trading life goes on and opportunities are presenting themselves daily with the niche we cover.  Yesterday, we had good action from the usual suspects, besides the shipper and solars , a few nice breakouts continued in those that lagged or consolidated the most recently...notably GRMN (a buy $125 by DB this am) and CROX.   There is a lot of froth reminiscent of bubble and pre holiday trading running rampant in the Chinese cheap speculative stocks..sometimes this is a sign of a pin coming to burst a bubble.    A big IPO(bank) in China didn't get the usual response of a huge first day.  A modest response at best with a 30% up trading day. This might be something or its just a fact of the investors having many options to put their money at work in similiar stocks.  We'll see if this all adds up to something in the short term for the Shang or this these thoughts are a much ado about nothing.   The forum is free to use if you want to post the speculative China runners, but we won't be writing about them in the Journal as it doesn't fit into many of the subscribers wants and needs.   Most here don't have the capabilities to trade these in a timely and efficient manner in a day trading mode.

Away from the 'usual suspects' that should continue to provide trading opportunities, we will be looking at a few names early...

ICOC and LULU, we like the way these traded in the afternoon and will look at them early on to enter.

CDS,  we are fine with going with the China cheap momentum and so this issue may continue to get momo, but we do look at these plays that emerge from other groups, such as this that originated in Briefing as an opp' to flip quickly or be flipped on in the first couple of days of it being discovered and spread around. one point during a rise you are riding the coattails of those already loaded up and ready to dump on you in most instances as the herd comes in after getting wind of it.   It is not only the ones that first make it public in a group that load up before, it is also and may be the same loop that buys the stock ahead of the AMEX listing in this case and then breaks this stock to the public that will be the first out.  So, the mentality is 'trade it' till your blue in the face or till your pockets are full of the green stuff, but we are here to also give you a glimpse and an education of what we have experienced in the 'underground' trading world.  Just keeping those not familiar with such listings on their toes. The difference here is the thirst for these China cheapies that may carry this.  Good timing you could say.  

A while ago, we introduced FTK (Flotek industries), the morning before its listing on the AMEX at our old grounds, the stock has launched to ~$45/5X its purchase price that day..simply it was at right time at the right place with the oil sec plays in high fashion for months this could be timed right as well.




Despite the overnight surge in the Asian market, the North American market didn't seem to quite match the same kind of intensity as overseas.    Still, market closed pretty well.   We have Fed meeting this coming Wednesday and the consensus is that Fed will lower the rate.    Again, this is not just anticipated,  it's also being expected.   The question now is how big of a rate cut will we be facing?    Is this the real question we should care about?    No, what we really care is how this market reacts to a 25 pt cut or a 50 pt cut?    In the unlikely event, how will the market react to a no rate cut?    Basically, there are two probable scenario and one unlikely one.   At this point, there's really no reason to overwork a strategy to anticipate the reaction, we'll just have to deal with whatever happens.

As we have been saying for a while, we don't think this rate cut will impact the overall market sentiment by much.    Hopefully, this market is still being earnings driven, and not fear driven, which means that the familiar names will carry this market higher.    There's a lot of disbelief of why this market is at the current level and that actually serves as a good point.    You definitely don't want to see everyone being optimistic and basically we need just as many bears calling for downturn, recession etc. in order for this market to go higher.

LFT STV.    Lets talk about these two as we have been getting some emails toward the end of the day concerning the well being of these two plays.    At this point, what we really want to stress is that these two are IPO's and now LONG term plays as yesterdays Journal noted.  These were already short term plays if you're only looking for a fast trade.  Being an IPO, there's basically no historical trading pattern to dictate a stocks movement.   It means that they will be volatile at the early going, especially the first week or two after its IPO.    That's the way it is!    We have to accept the fact these stocks are brand new and we have to slowly work our positions for a longer time frame as oppose to treating it like a JRJC or EFUT!     If you have any doubts about these two plays, just think about the following facts.     When was the last time can you recall a Chinese IPO on NYSE that have done badly three or four weeks into trading?    Yup, we can't recall a name that we've covered that didn't give us some good movement.    WX, EJ, EDU, LDK, TSL, YGE (nice action yesterday), MR... all serve as good examples of the stocks we've been trading in the past and now months later.     If you include the good ones on NASD, then there's just tons more.     Since we are talking about a NYSE stock here, this instantly gives credibility to these IPOs.    It means that the company is not only profitable but also meets the stringent listing requirement.   CSR (CSCT.ob) got that finally and is now trading on NYSE.   So back to the question, why are these stocks down today despite some good action from other Chinese stocks?   Well, one possible scenario is that some traders were looking for some carry through action like STV on its third day and did not get it, hence they just bailed out.    That is just part of trading and we can live with it.   Other recent momo China stocks like YTEC, JRJC put in quiet red days as well, a pattern emerged quickly as these names underperformed those China names near or at highs.   Our game plan is establishing a good position at this level.   We aren't buying all of our shares at once and that would simply be arrogant and undisciplined.     Now does it mean that LFT is done gong down after today?   Well, we don't know that and there could be some more downside action but we think the downside is limited.     As far as STV goes, the recent low is still intact and we are looking to average some more into any more weakness as we see.      Basically folks, we are dealing with a couple of strong growth oriented Chinese stocks here and they have just been out on the market for a few days.     Rome wasn't built in a day,  so let's just give these plays some room and time to work.

Hopefully, you are running a balanced book of sorts and participating in more than just these IPO's.  Just look at the number of charts updated from our closely followed that were hitting new highs yesterday....CETV-CROX-DRYS-EDU-FSLR-JASO-SPWR-VMW-WBD and GHM.     There is always the big caps GS AMZN, AAPL to balance the book even more.